TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:55 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: August 17th Monday 2009 Emini ES points +19.25
PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:49 am 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=279

The most important price action occurred prior to the 0930am est open and when that happens...there's usually very little trade opportunities after 1030am est.

I did a good job in exploiting the first hour of trading between 0930am - 1030am est but didn't trade well the last hour of trading mainly due to a trade management error in using intervals less than 1min in low volatility when I should have been using the 1min, 2min or 3min chart intervals.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +19.25 Emini ES points

------------------------------



Stocks Tumble On Consumer Fears
Wall Street retreats as worries about the economy cause investors to bail out, after lifting stocks by 50% in five months.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 17, 2009: 5:40 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street slumped Monday, falling for the second straight session, as worries that nervous consumers will pressure a fragile recovery dragged stocks lower after a five-month advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or 2%, after having lost as much as 204 points earlier. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 24 points, or 2.4%.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at 3-week lows.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 55 points, or 2.8%, ending at a one-month low.

A roughly five-month rally hit a roadblock last week after a worse-than-expected consumer sentiment report Friday. Signs that the economy is stabilizing -- combined with extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus -- have more or less lifted stocks since March, with the S&P 500 gaining 50%.

In the last month alone, the S&P 500 gained 15%. After such a run, a pullback was predictable, but it's unlikely to signal a bigger retreat, said Stephen Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co.

"You have a market that's seen most sectors and stocks rise in tandem and and so we should see a pretty orderly pullback," Goldman said. "We're still only down 2% or 3% from the highs."

As of last Thursday, the Dow was at a nine-month high and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were at 10-month highs.

Goldman said he sees a continued advance through the fall. But he said the difference is that from now on, it's going to be a lot more choppy, with investors having already anticipated a lot of the economic improvement.

The CBOE Volatility (VIX) index, also known as the Vix, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, spiked 15%, signaling a bigger stock pullback could be brewing.

"People are worried we've run too far, too fast and that we still have a long way to go in terms of the economy," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "There are concerns about a double-dip recession."

Consumer issues: Meanwhile, concerns about consumers could limit the pace of the economic recovery.

While the housing and manufacturing sectors have started to stabilize, a weak labor market and higher oil and gas prices have kept consumers on the sidelines. With consumer spending fueling roughly two-thirds of economic growth, participation is necessary for a bigger economic recovery to take hold.

Underscoring the weakness in consumer spending, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) on Monday reported a worse-than-expected drop in second-quarter profit. Lowe's also issued a second-half outlook that is short of analysts' estimates. Shares plunged 10.3% and dragged on other retailers.

Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and other retailers are due to report results later in the week.

Stock declines Monday were broad-based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks sliding, led by IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500).

Overseas markets slip: U.S. investors also reacted to a plunge in global stock markets.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index plunged 3.1% after a report showed the economy emerged from recession in the second quarter, but analysts said that the outlook was choppy. China's main index slumped almost 6% on worries about a stock market bubble.

In Europe, major markets all fell around 2%.

Manufacturing: The hard-hit sector continues to show signs of improvement. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing survey, a measure of activity in the New York area, rose to 12.1 in August versus a reading of negative 0.6 in July, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any reading that is positive shows expansion in the sector.

The week brings a slew of economic news. On Tuesday, the government reports on July housing starts and building permits, and July producer prices, a measure of wholesale inflation.

Later in the week, reports are due on leading economic indicators, jobless claims, state-by-state unemployment and existing home sales.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.56% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 76 cents to settle at $66.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $12.90 to settle at $935.80 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by eight to one on volume of 1.22 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by nearly five to one on volume of 1.94 billion shares.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Profit taking in the wake of slower-than-expected economic growth in Japan triggered a global sell-off that sent stocks below their recent trading ranges and handed the major U.S. indices their worst single-session percentage loss in six weeks.

With stocks looking overextended in the near term, overseas participants moved against stocks upon learning that Japan's economy expanded at a slower-than-expected rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. In turn, Japan's Nikkei shed 3.1%, while several other major Asian averages also finished with losses exceeding 3%. Stocks in Europe followed suit, but their decline wasn't quite as sharp. Overall weakness among the major global indices sent the Dow Jones World Index to a 2.9% loss, which is its worst since April. The steep decline comes just one session after the global index registered a high for 2009.

Emboldened sellers pushed the S&P 500 to a considerably lower start, but that was the extent of the session's excitement -- the benchmark index spent the rest of the session trading sideways in an extremely narrow range. One interesting point, though, was that the stock market's pullback didn't bring out any buyers looking to buy the dip as has been the case in recent weeks. The absence of that support left the stock market to fall to its lowest level since July.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finished lower. Financials suffered the most by dropping 4.3%. Banks were sharply out of favor as diversified banks fell 5.1% and regional banks dropped 5.8%.

Consumer discretionary stocks (-3.2%) also suffered. Broader market weakness, along with an earnings miss and a disappointing forecast from Lowe's (LOW 20.47, -2.36) weighed on the group.

Health care stocks held up rather well, however. The sector actually spent most of the session in the green, but faltered into the close and settled with a fractional loss. Managed health care providers (+2.7%) underpinned the sector's relative strength, thanks to news that President Obama is willing to accept insurance cooperatives instead of a government-run insurance plan.

Even though health care is the third largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, its relative strength wasn't enough for the broader market, which saw more than 90% of its holdings finish in the red.

The broader market was also unimpressed by news that the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted its first positive reading since April 2008 by coming in at a better-than-expected 12.08. It was also the best reading since November 2007.

Participants were also largely unsurprised by news that the Fed and Treasury opted to extend the Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) in order to help keep credit and liquidity conditions greased. The announcement, along with broader market weakness, did bolster buying among Treasuries, though. That helped the benchmark 10-year Note climb a robust 28 ticks, which pushed its yield below 3.5% for the first time since July.DJ30 -186.06 NASDAQ -54.68 NQ100 -2.9% R2K -2.8% SP400 -2.8% SP500 -24.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 469/1.94 bln/2184 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 336/1.22 bln/2728

3:30 pm : A broadly negative bias in the broader market and a stronger U.S. dollar combined to take commodities prices considerably lower Monday. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index has shed 1.6% this session and 4.5% during the course of the past two sessions.

In the energy space, crude oil futures prices finished 1.1% lower at $66.75 per barrel, which is the lowest closing price since July and is also below the 50-day moving average of $67 to $68 per barrel. As for natural gas, the stuff closed at $3.16 per contract, down 2.3%.

Metals saw considerable weakness of their own. Sellers sent gold prices down to their lowest close since July. By settling 1.4% lower at $935.80 per ounce, gold closed below its 50-day moving average near $940 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver settled some 5% lower at $13.98 per ounce.DJ30 -181.00 NASDAQ -55.60 SP500 -24.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 444/1.55 bln/2194 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 311/794 mln/2728

3:00 pm : Stocks started the session sharply lower, but subsequent action has been rather dull. During the last five hours of trade, the S&P 500 has spent all but about two minutes trading in a narrow five-point range between 980 and 985. The only time that stocks broke out of that range was midmorning when the benchmark index dipped to 979.

However, action could become a bit more exciting as participants enter the final hour of trade. During recent weeks, stocks have been most volatile in the final leg of the session. DJ30 -167.85 NASDAQ -51.20 SP500 -22.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 441/1.42 bln/2180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 318/732 mln/2731

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift sideways with marked losses. Each of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 remain considerably lower, except health care stocks, which are up a modest 0.1%. Health care stocks have been holding up relatively well for the entire session as the broader market remains hampered by a concerted selling effort.DJ30 -157.72 NASDAQ -49.12 SP500 -21.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 438/1.32 bln/2180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 306/681 mln/2726

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has spent the entire afternoon moving sideways between 980 and 985. Those levels haven't been seen since July.

The new levels come amid a broad-based selling effort, which took root in profit taking following a disappointing GDP reading from Japan. The GDP report acted as a trigger for sellers all around the globe; in turn, the Dow Jones World Index is down 2.7% in its worst single-session percentage decline since April.DJ30 -163.77 NASDAQ -49.06 SP500 -21.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 428/1.25 bln/2186 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 315/649 mln/2713

1:30 pm : Only a handful of companies are scheduled to announce their latest quarterly results after today's close. Agilent Tech (A 23.50, -0.54) is a headliner in the group, though the company's results are unlikely to have any truly significant impact on the broader market.

More widely held companies like health care outfit Cardinal Health (CAH 32.78, -0.12) and retailers TJX Companies (TJX 35.14, +0.05), Target (TGT 41.53, -0.50), and Home Depot (HD 26.13, -1.01) could have a stronger influence over the broader market when they report tomorrow morning, however.

July economic data could also drive stocks tommorow. The latest Producer Price Index, housing starts, and building permits tallies are due tomorrow morning.DJ30 -161.65 NASDAQ -50.27 SP500 -22.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 441/1.16 bln/2151 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 304/609 mln/2717

1:00 pm : Stocks have started the week considerably lower as a sharp sell-off in overseas markets provided a reason to drop stocks below their recent trading ranges.

The global selling effort began in Asia, where a weaker-than-expected GDP report from Japan prompted participants to take profits after watching many of the world's major indices reaching 2009 highs in recent sessions. The recent highs have had many pundits arguing that the recovery trade has become overextended in the near term and that stocks are due for a pullback.

However, pullbacks in recent weeks have been met with a supportive bid that has kept the broader market's bullish trend intact. That makes today's move lower interesting since it could signal whether dip-buyers return or the break below recent trading ranges will bring about an extended selling period.

Either way, stocks are trending toward their worst percentage loss in more than one month as more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 trade lower. Declines are steepest among financials (-3.3%), materials stocks (-3.4%), and energy stocks (-3.3%).

Consumer discretionary stocks (-2.6%) are contending with weakness of their own as retailers slide 2.9% in the wake of a disappointing quarterly report from Lowe's (LOW 20.83, -2.00).

Health care stocks make up the only major sector to trade with a gain. Thanks to leadership from managed health care holdings (+3.2%) following news that President Obama is willing to accept insurance cooperatives instead of a government-run insurance plan, the health care sector is up 0.3%.

In economic news, the New York Manufacturing Index showed its first positive reading, which indicates expansion, since April 2008 and its best reading since November 2007. The report was made before the opening bell and didn't really do much to provide broader-market support.

Meanwhile, the Fed and Treasury's decision to extend the Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) program was met with a muted response.DJ30 -158.85 NASDAQ -48.24 SP500 -22.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 421/1.04 bln/2145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 307/567 mln/2705

12:30 pm : Given this session's selling effort, participants are anticipating a pick up in volatility. As such, the Volatility Index, or VIX, is up nearly 13% to its highest level in one month. What's more, today's move marks the sharpest percentage increase by the VIX since April.

Losses in the broader market remain considerable, but been even more unkind to the Nasdaq, which is underperforming its peers after falling under pressure from large-cap tech outfits. Weakness among large-cap tech has the Nasdaq 100 down 2.4%.DJ30 -153.19 NASDAQ -47.02 SP500 -20.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 399/957 mln/2148 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 304/530 mln/2699

12:00 pm : Stocks have managed to pare some of their losses as they recover from recently reached session lows, but losses remain significant as more than 90% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 trade lower.

Blue-chips really aren't faring any better. Within the Dow, Pfizer (PFE 15.95, +0.18), Merck (MRK 31.03, +0.05), and Procter & Gamble (PG 52.43, +0.06) are the only names to trade higher.DJ30 -150.39 NASDAQ -46.35 SP500 -20.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 390/871 mln/2157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 295/487 mln/2684

11:30 am : Health care stocks have managed to make their way into positive territory, despite stiff selling pressure in the broader market. Leadership from UnitedHealth (UNH 29.25, +1.19), Wellpoint (WLP 54.12, +1.93), and Aetna (AET 29.45, +1.17), among other managed care providers, has been essential in the sector's 0.2% advance this session.

Though health care's advance is modest, it is the only major sector to sport a gain. In fact, every other major sector, save consumer staples (-0.9%), is down by more than 1% with six of them down by more than 2%.DJ30 -171.17 NASDAQ -48.84 SP500 -21.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 348/766 mln/2184 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 255/437 mln/2708

11:00 am : After opening sharply lower and then extending losses in the first few minutes of trading, the stock market is now moving sideways. Specifically, the S&P 500 is balancing the 980 line, which marks a low for August and is considered a near-term support level.

The considerable weakness among stocks has helped extend recent gains by Treasuries. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up a robust 26 ticks, which has pushed its yield below 3.5% for the first time since July.DJ30 -186.36 NASDAQ -48.85 SP500 -23.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 339/638 mln/2157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 222/372 mln/2709

10:35 am : The stock market opened sharply lower this morning and is currently trading near its morning lows, while the US Dollar Index continues trending higher and is currently trading near fresh highs.

September crude oil opened negative territory in pit trading this morning and recently hit fresh lows of $65.32. Currently, crude is trading 2.8% lower at $65.61 per barrel.

September natural gas was lower overnight, but popped into positive territory at the open of pit trading. However, this move was short-lived and natural gas moved back into negative territory and is currently trading 1.3% lower at $3.195 per MMBtu.

December gold and September silver both opened in negative territory in floor trading this morning. Both precious metals have continued trading lower and hit fresh lows in recent activity. Gold is now 1.5% lower at $934.10 per ounce, while silver is down 4.8% at $14.010 ounce. DJ30 -180.5 NASDAQ -46.55 SP500 -21.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 338/506.9 mln/2111 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 222/304.8 mln/2679

10:00 am : Weakness is widespread with more than 95% of the components in the S&P 500 residing in the red. Retailers are seeing some of the worst losses -- they are down 4.0% as a group.

The drop among retailers is being led by Lowe's Companies (LOW 20.58, -2.25), which reported this morning disappointing quarterly earnings and then compounded the offense by issuing downside guidance. The dour report has stirred concern for the company's peer Home Depot (HD 25.77, -1.37), which is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow morning. Market watchers should note that a full earnings calendar can be viewed at Briefing.com.DJ30 -165.73 NASDAQ -43.17 SP500 -20.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 280/307 mln/2088 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 182/203 mln/2660

09:40 am : The Dow, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 have all opened sharply lower, but losses are currently steepest in the Nasdaq due to weakness among large-cap tech outfits like Cisco Systems (CSCO 20.86, -0.49) and Apple (AAPL 162.54, -4.24).

Materials stocks and financial stocks are also trading with marked weakness, however. They are down a respective 4.0% and 3.7% as the likes of ArcelorMittal (MT 33.52, -1.97) and Dow Chemical (DOW 20.87, -1.26) and shares of Bank of America (BAC 16.52, -0.87) and Wells Fargo (WFC 26.65, -1.08) all falter.

Health care stocks are holding up quite well against this morning's marked weakness. The health care sector is down just 0.2% amid reports that President Obama is willing to accept insurance cooperatives instead of a government-run insurance plan. In turn, managaged health care shares are up 2.8% with Cigna (CI 29.96, +1.14) showing some early leadership.DJ30 -184.78 NASDAQ -43.65 SP500 -21.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 250/165 mln/2011 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 162/134 mln/2499

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.50. This morning's weakness comes in the wake of a global selloff that was triggered by news that the Japanese economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter. Though growth in itself is good to see, the data has provided many participants with an excuse to take profits after watching many major global indices ascend in recent sessions to their best levels of 2009. There have been a couple of positive announcements this morning, however. First, the New York Manufacturing Index showed its first positive reading, which indicates expansion, since April 2008 and its best reading since November 2007. Second, the Fed announced it has extended its Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) as part of its ongoing effort to improve credit and liquidity conditions. Still, the announcements haven't done much to lift spirits in premarket action. As such, this morning's negative start will build on last week's loss, which was the first weekly decline in more than one month.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.30. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with marked weakness, though they are off of their morning lows. Their decline comes amid a global selloff, which was spurred by disappointing economic growth in Japan. European stocks are sharing in the weakness as Germany's DAX drops 1.7% as 29 of its 30 components trade lower. Adidas is the only company to sport a gain in the German bourse; the stock is up fractionally. In France the CAC is off by 1.9% as 39 of its 40 components currently reside in the red. Pernod-Ricard is the only company listed in the CAC to trade with a gain. Nearly 95% of the stocks listed in Britain's FTSE are making losses. Bank stocks and major commodity players are leading the decline, which has the British benchmark index down 1.5%. Europes declines come in the face of news from The Wall Street Journal that the 16 countries using the euro posted in June the biggest monthly trade surplus seen in two years, though levels remain depressed by the global slowdown. According to data, the zone's June trade surplus widened to €4.6 billion, which exceeded expectations. Weakness was even more pronounced in Asia, where Japan's Nikkei surrendered 3.1% amid profit-taking that followed news the nation's economy grew at a slower-than-expected 0.9% in the second quarter. The data exacerbated negativity that followed an unexpectedly weak reading on U.S. consumer confidence late last week. More than 95% of the stocks that trade on Japan's Nikkei finished Monday with a loss. Kyocera (KYO) was a primary laggard, along with Fast Retailing and Fanuc. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 3.6%. Bank stocks were sharply out of favor as China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and HSBC (HBC) led losses. China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance also fell after Ping An posted weaker-than-expected first-half results. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite plummeted 5.8% to its lowest level in two months. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index surrendered 3.3%.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.30. News that Japan's economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter than many economists had expected continues to weigh on premarket bias. The news has dominated headlines in the absence of any other major announcements. However, Lowe's Companies (LOW) did report second quarter earnings of $0.51 per share, which is short of the $0.54 per share that was widely expected. The company compounded its offense by issuing downside guidance for the third quarter and for fiscal 2010. Shares of LOW are down some 11% to $20.30 per share in premarket action. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stepped up this morning to announce that it expects third quarter earnings to range from $0.39 to $0.51 per share, which brackets the consensus estimate of $0.46 per share. That hasn't helped win any favor for the stock amid broader market pressures this morning, though; the stock is down nearly 3% to $40.11 per share ahead of the opening bell. As for economic data, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for August came in at 12.08, which is a surprise since it was expected to come in at 3.00. The latest figure marked the first positive reading since April 2008 and the strongest reading since November 2007.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -19.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.80. U.S. stock futures are contending with a considerable bout of selling pressure, which follows a concerted overseas selling effort that came in the wake of news that Japan's economy, despite expanding 0.9% in the second quarter, came short of the consensus growth estimate. Japan's benchmark average, the Nikkei, closed 3.1% lower. Hong Kong fared even worse by dropping 3.6%. Weakness is also being shared by European stocks, which are down markedly as Germany's DAX drops 2.3%, France's CAC falls 2.6%, and Britain's FTSE surrenders 2.0%.

06:23 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.00.

06:23 am : Nikkei...10268.61...-328.70...-3.10%. Hang Seng...20137.65...-755.70...-3.60%.

06:23 am : FTSE...4635.12...-78.90...-1.70%. DAX...5214.74...-94.40...-1.80%.

Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr