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 Post subject: August 13th Thursday 2009 Emini ES points +42.75
PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 1:43 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=276

Yesterday I didn't achieve the +40 point profit goal but today I did thanks to position size management in the 1:50pm est to Close trading session. Simply, I increased my position size on the right trades at the right time.

Please review the above log of #FuturesTrades to have a better understanding of what I did and when I did it.

By the way, I won't be trading tomorrow August 14th Friday because I have too many personal stuff to do. Therefore, have a good trading day and see all on Monday.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +42.75 Emini ES points

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Wall Street At New '09 Highs
Stocks muster gains as optimism in Fed report ultimately trumps weaker retail sales and more jobless claims.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 13, 2009: 6:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended higher Thursday after a choppy session, as the Fed's economic outlook and a positive government debt auction overshadowed a report showing a surprise drop in retail sales.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 37 points, or 0.4%, ending at its highest point since Nov. 4.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 7 points, or 0.7%, ending at its highest point since Oct. 6.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 10 points, or 0.5%, ending at its highest point since Oct. 1.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500)'s better-than-expected earnings report and a spike in financial shares also helped support stocks.

Financial shares added to the gains. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) all rose along with regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index gained 3.1%.

Thursday's jump followed a rally Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates near historic lows and signaled the economy has finally started to stabilize.

Earlier this week, stocks had stalled out as the major gauges struggled to remain above key psychological levels -- 2,000 for the Nasdaq and 1,000 for the S&P 500. But shares managed to close decidedly above those levels Thursday.

In bonds, the last of the government's three debt auctions this week -- this time $15 billion in 30-year bonds -- saw strong demand, helping to support the market.

Economy: Indications that the global economy could be stabilizing provided investors with some optimism, but that was countered by Thursday's weak readings on consumers.

On Thursday, both France and Germany posted GDP growth in the second quarter, surprising economists.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve provided a little optimism Wednesday, saying that although economic activity is likely to remain weak, the decline is leveling out and financial market conditions appear to have improved. This seemed to echo recent reports showing the economy is stabilizing.

"We're starting to see an improvement and we could see a quarter or so of higher growth on recovering inventories," said Stephen Mahoney, fixed income portfolio manager at Glenmede Investment Management.

"But the question is where do we go from here?," he said. "We need to see a few quarters of strong growth, not just one quarter."

Future growth could be constrained by consumers, who continue to beef up their savings and avoid spending on non-essentials, as Thursday's retail sales and jobless claims reports made clear.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that business inventories declined for the 10th straight month.

Friday brings reports on consumer sentiment, industrial production and capacity utilization -- and consumer prices.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to come in unchanged, as inflationary pressure remains benign. CPI rose 0.7% in June. The so-called Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.1% after rising 0.2% in June. The Labor Department releases the report.

Retail sales slip: Retail sales fell 0.1% in July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The results were a surprise to economists who were looking for a rise of 0.7%, on average, according to a Briefing.com survey. Sales rose 0.8% in June.

Results would have been worse if not for the government's Cash for Clunkers program, which boosted auto sales. Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.6% in July versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. Sales without autos rose a revised 0.5% in June.

The report is worrisome, as consumer spending fuels two-thirds of gross domestic product growth. So far, low prices and government stimulus have helped the economy stabilize, but without a pickup in spending, any recovery will be moderate at best.

In related news, Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said it is boosting production for the rest of the year to meet increased demand as a result of Cash for Clunkers.

Wal-Mart Stores: The No. 1 retailer reported quarterly earnings Thursday.

On the upside, Wal-Mart earned 88 cents per share versus 87 cents a year ago and more than what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. Wal-Mart also said that it expects current-quarter earnings in line with analysts' forecasts.

But revenue fell more than expected and the company said customers were cutting back. The Dow component also said that sales at stores open a year or more, also known as same-store sales, fell 1.2% in the quarter.

Nonetheless, investors focused on the positive and shares gained 2.7% Thursday.

Labor market: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 558,000 last week, surprising economists who were expecting jobless claims to drop to 545,000 claims.

However, the Labor Department report also showed that continuing claims, which measures people who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 6,202,000 from 6,343,000 in the previous week.

Housing: The housing market remains constrained, according to a new report released Thursday. Foreclosure filings jumped almost 7% in July from the previous month, according to RealtyTrac. Filings rose 32% from a year ago.

Bonds: Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.59% from 3.71% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The government is auctioning $75 billion in debt this week as part of its efforts to reduce the deficit and fuel its recovery efforts.

On Thursday, Treasury auctioned $15 billion in 30-year bonds to strong demand.

The first two auctions had mixed results. Tuesday's sale of $37 billion in three-year notes saw stronger demand than other recent auctions. Wednesday's auction of $23 billion in 10-year notes showed demand roughly in line with recent levels.

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose 36 cents to settle at $70.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $4 to settle at $956.50 an ounce.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets ended higher, while Asian markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was moderate. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers two to one on volume of 776 million shares. It was the second slowest trading day of the year for the NYSE, eclipsed only by the day before the July 4th holiday.

On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 2.11 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Unexpected economic growth out of Germany and France helped set a positive tone this morning, but a generally disappointing batch of U.S. economic data undermined the bias, leaving stocks to trade with modest gains for most of the session.

News that the German and French economies both exceeded expectations by posting second quarter growth of 0.3% brought about broad-based buying overseas and propped up U.S. stocks ahead of the opening bell. However, the positive bias was dialed down following news that the latest round of initial jobless claims were greater than expected at 558,000. That hiked the 4-week moving average up to 565,000 from 556,500. Meanwhile, continuing claims made a larger-than-expected retreat to 6.20 million, but the drop is most likely from unemployed workers losing their benefits.

Total retail sales for July made an unexpected 0.1% decline and sales less autos fell a sharper-than-expected 0.6%. That, combined with elevated jobless claims totals, pressured shares of retailers. However, Wal-Mart's (WMT 51.88, +1.37) better-than-expected earnings and solid outlook provided support to the group and helped it finish 0.3% higher.

With consumers still hesitant to open purse strings, demand for imports remains soft. With that, July import prices fell for their first time since January by declining a steeper-than-expected 0.7% month-over-month. Despite the persistently weak state of things, stocks were able to close near their best levels of the session.

Materials stocks made the best gains, helping the sector advance 2.1%. Steel (+3.0%) and diversified metals and miners players (+4.8%) were underpinned the sector's strength.

Financials were key in the broader market's strong close. The sector tacked on 2.0% amid buying in Bank of America (BAC 17.00, +1.07), which benefited from news that insiders are accumulating positions in the stock and that Paulson & Co. disclosed new positions in the stock. Shares of BAC were among the most active by trading volume this session, though trading volume in the broader market was exceptionally low with fewer than 1 billion shares trading hands on the NYSE.

Defensive-oriented sectors trailed for the entire session. Telecom and utilities both settled 0.2% lower, while health care advanced just 0.1%. Collective weakness among defensive issues actually dragged the broader market into the red in the early going, but buyers quickly stepped in to provide support.

Treasuries made strong gains following a $15 billion auction of 30-year Treasury Bonds. The auction produced a high yield of 4.54% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, which was above the average of 2.32 for the previous five auctions for 2009. That encouraged enough buying to send the benchmark 10-year Note up nearly one full point and the Note's yield back below 3.6%.DJ30 +36.58 NASDAQ +10.63 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +6.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1495/2.11 bln/1209 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1999/896 mln/1043

3:35 pm : Materials and financials are leading the broader market this session; they are up 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.

Precious metals netted gains this session as the dollar moved lower. Both gold and silver futures opened the pit trade higher after the dollar had already made a move to the downside. December gold came off its session highs late in the session to close at $956.50 per ounce, up 0.4%. September silver finished strong, off session lows of $14.82 per ounce, to close at $14.99 per ounce, up 2.7%.

Natural gas futures prices spiked into positive territory and set a fresh session high following a slightly lower-than-expected build in inventories reported this morning. However, these gains were short-lived as the futures sold off for the rest of the session. September natural gas futures closed at $3.33 per contract, down 4.3%, just off session lows.

Meanwhile, September crude oil futures traded in positive territory for almost the entire session and closed up 0.7% at $70.65 per barrel.DJ30 +20.33 NASDAQ +6.42 SP500 +4.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1354/1.75 bln/1281 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1873/590 mln/1118

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to trend upward toward the 1010 level, which is where it spent most of the middle part of the session. Though this session's advance has been modest, it limits the stock market's week-to-date loss to just 0.2%. Month-to-date, stocks are up roughly 2%.DJ30 -10.58 NASDAQ +1.91 SP500 +1.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1348/1.56 bln/1315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1821/533 mln/1163

2:30 pm : Stocks are making a modest upturn since falling briefly into negative territory. Gains are modest once again.

The stock market's afternoon oscillation comes amid mixed action in other asset classes. In particular, the CRB Commodity Index is trading along the unchanged mark after surrendering morning gains. The drop by the CRB comes even though the U.S. dollar is under pressure and has shed 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Meanwhile, Treasuries continue to garner support.DJ30 -4.16 NASDAQ +2.35 SP500 +1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/1.47 bln/1415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/490 mln/1355

2:00 pm : Stocks have slipped to afternoon lows, which has left the Dow to trade in negative territory.

Financials and materials stocks continue to provide a boon to the broader market, though. The financial sector is up 1.4% amid leadership from Bank of America (BAC 16.72, +0.49) following news of insider buying at the firm and that Paulson & Co. disclosed new positions in the stock. Meanwhile, materials are being propped up by fertilizer and agricultural chemical stocks (+2.1%) and diversified metals stocks (+3.8%).DJ30 -13.07 NASDAQ +2.72 SP500 +0.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1394/1.33 bln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1789/442 mln/1162

1:30 pm : Stocks jumped to a fresh session high following the results of the latest 30-year Treasury Bond auction, which produced a high yield of 4.54% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54. The bid-to-cover ratio was above the average of 2.32 for the previous five auctions for 2009. However, stocks have since slipped back to earlier levels to trade with modest gains.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have picked up steam and are now marching higher. That has the benchmark 10-year Note up nearly one full point, which has pushed its yield back to 3.6%.DJ30 +15.34 NASDAQ +8.34 SP500 +3.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/1.22 bln/1116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1937/396 mln/990

1:00 pm : News that the German and French economies both logged second quarter growth of 0.3% when further contraction was expected evoked broad-based buying overseas and sent U.S. stock futures markedly higher.

However, dour economic data out of the U.S. tripped things up a bit. That left European stocks to close off of their session highs and eventually led to some selling pressure following the U.S. opening bell.

Weak job conditions continue to cause concern about the U.S. recovery since the lost jobs will pressure consumer spending and even feed foreclosures, which could slow the revival of housing. The latest round of initial jobless claims hit 558,000, which was greater than what had been expected and lifted the 4-week moving average to 565,000. Continuing claims did retreat to 6.20 million, which was better than expected, but the drop is most likely the result of unemployed workers losing their benefits.

Retail sales for July fell 0.1% when a 0.8% increase was expected. Excluding autos, sales were down a sharper-than-expected 0.6%. Disappointing jobless claims numbers and retail sales declines have weighed on retailers for the entire session. They are down 0.3X% even though Wal-Mart (WMT 51.59, +1.08) is showing strength after providing better-than-expected earnings and a solid outlook.

Foreclosures continue to repress a recovery in housing. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings in July increased nearly 7% from the previous month and 32% year-over-year. With homes left to go back on the market, shares of homebuilders are down 1.8%.

In other economic news, import prices for July slipped a steeper-than-expected 0.7% month-over-month. The weakness in import prices further reflects consumers' lack of willingness to open purse strings in the face of weak job conditions.

Stocks are up modestly midway through the session. Though stocks are off of their session highs, they are also up from session lows, which were registered in the early going when sellers made a sudden, collective push against stocks to send the indices into the red.

Financials (+1.7%) and materials stocks (+1.9%) continue to garner the most support. The duo provided the leadership to help broader market rebound from the early selling effort. Defensive-oriented sectors have lagged the entire session.DJ30 +36.43 NASDAQ +12.78 SP500 +6.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/1.17 bln/1069 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1936/350 mln/984

12:30 pm : The major indices are moving sideways after pulling back from session highs. Despite the market's modest gain, underlying action remains mixed.

Treasuries are garnering support ahead of the latest Treasury auction results, which are due at the top of the hour. Currently, the benchmark 10-year Note is up 10 ticks and yielding less than 3.7%.DJ30 +13.68 NASDAQ +8.36 SP500 +3.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/1.05 bln/1157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1806/330 mln/1067

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to trade with modest gains, but underlying action remains mixed as the major sectors in the S&P 500 are evenly split across positive and negative territory.

Materials stocks have pulled back to trade with a 1.6% gain. That has allowed the financial sector to move into the leadership position -- financials are up 1.7%.

At the other end of things are health care (-0.5%), utilities (-0.5%), telecom (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.4%). The defensive-oriented sectors have lagged for the entire session.DJ30 +19.80 NASDAQ +8.29 SP500 +3.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1308/952 mln/1209 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1724/184 mln/1092

11:30 am : Stocks have moved off of recent session highs, but they continue to sport modest gains.

Though the broader market is in the green, retailers are under pressure. As a group, retailers are down 0.7%. Wal-Mart (WMT 51.33, +0.82) is limiting the group's move to the downside due to better-than-expected earnings and a solid outlook. Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.86, +0.64) is also making strong gains after topping analysts' consensus earnings estimate for the latest quarter. Kohl's (KSS 51.04, -1.23) is a laggard, however. It posted a positive earnings surprise for the second quarter, but issued downside guidance. DJ30 +6.57 NASDAQ +4.82 SP500 +2.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/839 mln/1248 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1657/160 mln/1103

11:00 am : Sellers made a concerted attempt to knock stocks back on their heels, but buyers have responded with conviction and sent stocks back to higher ground. The supportive bid has not only enabled stocks to retrace all of the morning's sell-off, but it has sent the major indices to fresh session highs. Still, overall gains are moderate.

Materials stocks continue to sport the best gains. The sector is now up 2.2%, more than any other major sector. Stronger commodity and basic materials prices, as indicated by a 0.4% rise in the CRB Commodity Index, is helping to bolster materials stocks.DJ30 +25.92 NASDAQ +9.96 SP500 +5.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1303/695 mln/1147 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/139 mln/963

10:30 am : September crude oil hit early highs of $72.21 about 45 minutes ahead of floor trading. After touching its high crude fell sharply, losing over $2, and briefly fell into negative territory. Currently, crude is trading 0.7% higher at $70.69 per barrel.

September natural gas also fell sharply along with crude ahead of pit trading, pushing it into negative territory to fresh lows of $3.40 and was trading 2% lower at $3.411 ahead of this morning's inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 63 bcf (consensus was a build of 65 bcf) natural gas spiked into positive territory and is currently 0.7% higher at $3.502.

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade in negative territory, which is providing price support in precious metals. Gold is trading modestly higher, up 0.5% at $957.70 per ounce, while September silver is 2.5% higher at $14.95 per ounce.DJ30 -11.64 NASDAQ +0.97 SP500 0.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1082/514.7 mln/1304 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1416/125.1 mln/1210

10:00 am : Stocks have quickly turned course and are now trading with losses. The reversal has been broad-based with all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 turning south.

Materials stocks are putting up the best fight against the recent selling effort, though. The sector is still up 0.7%. Financials make up the only other major sector that is still trading with a gain -- financials are up 0.2%.

The latest batch of business inventory data has just hit news wires. Inventories for June decreased 1.1%, which is steeper than the 0.9% decrease that was widely expected. The previous reading was revised lower to show a 1.2% decline.DJ30 -51.47 NASDAQ -9.33 SP500 -4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 873/321 mln/1426 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/98 mln/1281

09:45 am : The major indices are up in the first few minutes of trading, but their gains are modest.

Financial stocks and materials stocks are up markedly, though. The two sectors are both up 1.2%.

Offsetting their gains is weakness among defensive-oriented stocks. Utilities (-0.6%), health care (-0.6%), telecom (-0.5%), and consumer discretionary stocks (-0.4%) have fallen out of favor.DJ30 +14.36 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +2.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/174 mln/940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1712/81 mln/740

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80. Though off of morning highs, stock futures continue to point to a strong start for the major U.S. indices. Such a move will extend the previous session's broad-based gains, which came as participants moved to pick up stocks after watching them slide in the two preceding sessions. However, the latest round of buying interest comes partly as a reaction to strong overseas gains, which were kindled by surprise economic growth in Germany and France. Better-than-expected earnings from retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) have also helped support this morning's positive bid. News that overall retail sales made an unexpected drop in July has underminned the positive tone to early trading, though. Higher-than-expected initial jobless claims has also weighed down stock futures a bit.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.30. U.S. stock futures remain off of their morning highs after some disappointing economic reports. The disappointing data has also undercut gains in European stocks, which were initially propelled higher by surprising news that the German and French economies grew 0.3% in the second quarter. Further contraction had been expected. Germany's DAX is currently up 0.9% after trading with a gain of nearly 2.0% at its session high. BASF and Deutsche Bank (DB) are primary leaders in the German bourse. As for France's CAC, it is up 0.4% after being up as much as 1.5%. Financial outfits BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), and Societe Generale are primary leaders in the CAC. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has followed the lead of its counterparts by climbing 0.7%. HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader, but metals and miners are making a collective advance as Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American (AAUK) advance. Asian markets attracted buyers after the major U.S. indices traded broadly higher in Wednesday's trade. In turn, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 1.6% higher and Japan's Nikkei added 0.8%. Mazda gained after the Nikkei business daily said the automaker could raise its domestic production outlook for as stimulus programs in Japan and abroad boost demand. Advantest (ATE) was a primary leader in the Nikkei, though. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.1% higher. Financial outfits HSBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China were primary leaders. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.9% after bouncing from a five-week intraday low early in the session.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Though still up, stock futures have pulled back a bit following the latest dose of data. The Advance Retail Sales Report for July showed a 0.1% decrease, which missed the 0.8% increase that was widely expected. The reading for June was revised upward to a 0.8% increase. Excluding autos, sales were down 0.6% in July. That missed the 0.1% increase that was expected. June's sales less autos figure was revised upward to show a 0.5% increase from a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the import price index for July slipped 0.7% month-over-month. It was expected to slip 0.5%. The previous month's data was revised lower to show a 2.6% increase. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 totaled 558,000, which exceeds the 545,000 initial claims that economists had come to expect. The previous week's claims were revised slightly higher to 554,000. Continuing claims came in below the 6.30 million that was expected. They fell to 6.20 million from an upwardly revised 6.34 million in the previous week.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00. Wal-Mart (WMT) and Kohl's (KSS) both reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, but while Wal-Mart issued an in-line outlook, Kohl's issued downside guidance. Ahead of the opening bell, shares of WMT are up roughly 1.3% to $51.15 per share, but KSS shares are down 1.9% to $51.26 per share. Meanwhile, broader market stock futures are up handsomely and suggest a markedly higher start for the session. Several economic reports are due at the bottom of the hour. The list includes advance retail sales data for July, import prices for July, and the latest batch of weekly jobless claims. Business inventories for June are due at 10:00 AM ET. Though not an economic report, participants also await the results from a $15 billion 30-year Treasury Bond auction (1:00 PM ET).

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80.

06:35 am : Nikkei...10517.19...+82.20...+0.80%. Hang Seng...20861.30...+426.10...+2.10%.

06:35 am : FTSE...4767.98...+51.20...+1.10%. DAX...5418.13...+68.00...+1.30%.

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