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 Post subject: August 11th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES points +25.50
PostPosted: Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:58 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=273

My market analysis as explained yesterday showed that today will have some fireworks. However, it began around 0830am est and I wasn't ready to trade until 0930am est. Tomorrow, I'll be ready to trade around 0830am est to prevent missing trade opportunities that could get me in early on a strong directional price movement or possible trend day...prompting me to continue to increase my average position size for the expected increasing volatility.

As for my trading today, nothing spectacular as usual...just control trading (minimize the loss on losers and maximize the profits on winners via letting them run beyond profit targets).

Best trade of the day may have been my last trade of the day although it only involved one contract Short position.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +25.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Suffer Setback
Influential financial sector leads the retreat as investors gear up for the latest from the Fed. Big debt auctions in focus too.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 11, 2009: 5:58 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Tuesday, with a pummeling in bank shares and jitters ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement giving investors a reason to retreat.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 97 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 13 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) dipped 23 points, or 1.1%.

Stocks slipped modestly in the first 30 minutes of the session, but lost more steam as new banking sector woes surfaced and after the government said wholesale inventories fell 1.7% in June versus forecasts for a drop of 0.9%.

Investors were also focusing on the Fed's 2-day meeting, which concludes Wednesday afternoon with the release of a decision on interest rates and a statement on the economy.

"I think there's some apprehension ahead of the Fed," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We know they're going to leave rates alone, but there's some question about what they'll say."

The banking sector retreated after CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) delayed its quarterly filing, reviving bankruptcy fears, and several analysts sounded an alarm on the sector. Influential analyst Richard X. Bove of Rochdale Securities said that bank stocks are trading on "fumes" and that investors should take some short-term profits. JPMorgan Chase downgraded bond insurer MBIA (MBI), according to published reports.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, the Commerce Department releases the June trade gap. The trade gap is expected to have widened to $28.5 billion from $26 billion in May, a 10-year low.

The weekly oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is also due in the morning. The July Treasury budget is due in the afternoon.

Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) is likely to be active Wednesday. After the close Tuesday, the chipmaker reported a quarterly loss versus a profit a year ago on weaker revenue. However, the results were better than what analysts were expecting and shares gained 3% in extended-hours trading.

Rally takes a rest: Stocks rallied through the end of last week as part of a broader advance that lifted the S&P 500 over 50% off the March lows. But investors have dragged their feet this week as they look for new signs that the economy is stabilizing.

This week, the two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting and the Treasury auctions will take center stage.

"We don't expect any changes from the Fed," said Tim McCandless, senior equity analyst at Bel Air Investment Advisors. "Eventually they will outline an exit strategy, but not yet."

McCandless said that while stocks are lower so far this week, a rally can probably stretch out through the rest of August, before facing bigger challenges in the fall.

Fiscal stimulus and "less bad" economic news and profit reports fueled the stock market rally so far. But, longer term, "we need to see a shift from stabilization in the economy and cost cutting driving earnings to real growth," he said.

On the move: Stock declines were broad based, with 26 of 30 Dow issues falling.

Dow financial issues American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500) all declined. The KBW Bank (BKX) index lost 4.4%.

Among other financial sector movers, CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) slumped after saying it will delay filing its quarterly report as it continues to try to restructure its debt and avoid filing for bankruptcy protection.

IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) were the Dow's other big decliners.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by almost three to two on volume of 1.2 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over two to one on volume of 1.96 billion shares.

Federal Reserve meeting: The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday with an announcement expected at around 2:15 p.m. ET.

The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at historic lows near zero percent.

In its closely scrutinized statement, the bankers are expected to say that economic activity is picking up, but that they remain cautious about the outlook. The bank is not expected to say anything too specific about what its exit strategy may be after putting so much stimulus into the financial system.

Economy: U.S. productivity in the second quarter jumped at the fastest pace in six years, the government said Tuesday. Productivity -- which measures how much workers produce per hour worked -- rose 6.4% versus forecasts for a rise of 5.5%. Productivity rose 0.3% in the first quarter.

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose 70 cents to settle at $947.60 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.67% from 3.77% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The government is offering $75 billion this week as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce the deficit and fuel its recovery efforts.

Investors reacted mildly to the conclusion of the first auction Tuesday. Treasury sold $37 billion in three-year notes and saw stronger demand than in other recent auctions.

On Wednesday, the government auction $23 billion in 10-year notes and on Friday it auctions $15 billion in 30-year bonds.

Other markets: In global trading, European and Asian markets tumbled.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Weakness among financial stocks led to a broad-based selling effort that resulted in the stock market's worst single-session percentage decline in one month. Though stocks finished off of session lows, they still closed in weak fashion, unable to garner support and limit losses as they did in the previous session.

The downturn left the S&P 500 just below 995, which is considered a support level below the psychologically significant 1000. Many market watchers regard 990 as the next level of support, followed by 980.

Tuesday started with modest losses until sellers made a concerted move against financials. The financial sector shed 3.5% as regional banks and diversified banks fell a respective 4.2% and 5.6%. Diversified financial services firms fell 4.4%.

CIT Group (CIT 1.20, -0.28) was one of the worst performers by percent lost. The company fell sharply out of favor by delaying its quarterly filing.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finished in the red. Behind financials, energy was the next worst performing sector. It finished with a 1.7% loss, less than half the loss that hit financials. Energy was dragged lower by weakness in the broader market and 1.6% decline in crude oil prices. Oil settled at $69.45 per barrel.

Neither corporate news nor economic data had any meaningful or lasting impact on the broader market this session. Stock futures did show some knee-jerk buying before the opening bell when participants learned that second quarter productivity increased a better-than-expected 6.4%, which was the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2003, and unit labor costs during the second quarter fell 5.8%, which was sharper than expected and the steepest drop in eight years. In other economic news, wholesale inventories fell for the 10th straight month by dropping a sharper-than-expected 1.7% in June.

Tomorrow afternoon the FOMC announces its rate decision and releases its latest policy directive, which could provide a meaningful catalyst to trading. Participants will also be keeping an eye on the results of tomorrow's 10-year Treasury Note auction, which carries significantly more importance than today's $37 billion auction of 3-year Treasuries. Today's auction drew a yield of 1.78% and carried a bid-to-cover ratio of nearly 2.9, which is above recent averages.

Treasuries made a bit of a pullback in the wake of the announcement, but recovered into the close. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note gained 27 ticks, which sent its yield well below 3.7%. The yield on the 10-year Note has shed more than 10 basis points so far this week.DJ30 -96.50 NASDAQ -22.51 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -1.7% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -12.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 719/1.94 bln/1931 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 788/1.20 bln/2235

3:35 pm : Stocks are managing to climb to afternoon highs as late day trading becomes rather light.

Aside from financials, energy has been the weakest sector this session. Energy stocks are currently down 1.6%. Energy commodities saw similar selling pressure; they ended the pit trade down 1.5%.

Both natural gas and crude oil futures sold off at the open of the pit trade. September crude oil futures fell below the $70 per barrel mark during this move. They were never able to make it back to the $70 level and closed down 1.6% at $69.45 per barrel. September natural gas future were also hampered by the initial sell-off and closed down 2.5% at $3.55 per contract.

Precious metals moved lower at the beginning of the pit trade as the dollar moved higher. However, the dollar subsequently retreated, which allowed gold and silver futures to recoup their losses. December gold futures closed up fractionally at $947.60 per ounce as September silver futures closed down one penny at $14.35 per ounce.DJ30 -71.56 NASDAQ -16.55 SP500 -9.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 733/1.60 bln/1928 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 870/870 mln/2161

3:00 pm : Weakness continues to hamper stocks, but the major indices haven't given up on working their way off of session lows. Whether stocks can pare substantially their losses into the close for the second straight session will only be determined in the next hour of action.

Despite the gradually improved tone, declining issues still outnumber advancers by more than 3-to-1 in the S&P 500. DJ30 -67.86 NASDAQ -18.13 SP500 -9.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 697/1.46 bln/1949 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 833/803 mln/2182

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to pare their losses, but they remain hampered by weakness. While all three major indices are still down markedly, losses are less steep in the Dow.

The price-weighted index of blue chips is being supported by shares of chemical outfit DuPont (DD 32.82, +0.44), and retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 50.16, +0.44).DJ30 -77.46 NASDAQ -20.51 SP500 -10.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 656/1.36 bln/1972 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 738/750 mln/2268

2:00 pm : The major indices are slowly easing off of recent lows. Losses remain broad-based, though.

Commodities are trading with general weakness, too. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.2%. Oil is a primary detractor of the CRB at the moment; crude oil futures are down 1.5% to $69.55 per barrel.DJ30 -85.47 NASDAQ -24.56 SP500 -11.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 604/1.24 bln/2024 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/691 mln/2317

1:30 pm : Generally unfazed by the latest Treasury auction results, stocks continue to trade near session lows.

Treasuries, however, have made a bit of a pullback following news that a $37 billion auction of 3-year Treasuries drew a yield of 1.78% and carried a bid-to-cover ratio of nearly 2.9, which is above recent averages. Though tomorrow's auction of 10-year Notes will carry more importance, the 10-year Note is now up 15 ticks after being up more than 20 ticks earlier.DJ30 -98.77 NASDAQ -28.43 SP500 -14.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 570/1.16 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 600/655 mln/2393

1:00 pm : Tuesday started with modest losses, but sellers have intensified their efforts to push stocks toward their worst single-session percentage loss in one month.

Financials have been the primary source of this session's weakness. The sector's current loss of 3.4% is worse than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

MBIA (MBI 5.20, -0.97) is a primary laggard among financials after being hit with a downgrade by analysts at JPMorgan. CIT Group (CIT 1.17, -0.31) has made a precipitous drop following its decision to delay its quarterly filing. Though the pair is among the worst performers in the financial sector, general weakness among bank stocks is having the most adverse impact on the broader sector due to their collective market weight. Currently, the KBW Banking Index is off by 4.5% in its worst percentage drop since June. The KBW is still up more than 7% month-to-date and up 19% since July 1, though.

Weakness has been broad-based for the entire session as participants move to take profits, but defensive-oriented consumer staples stocks have managed to limit losses. The sector is down just 0.2% as tobacco stocks provide a boon to the sector.

Still, the broader market is at session lows.

Broader market participants haven't had any meaningful corporate announcements to guide their actions this session. Economic data hasn't had much of an overall impact on trading, either. Wholesale inventories fell for the tenth straight month by dropping a sharper-than-expected 1.7% in June. Meanwhile, second quarter productivity increased a better-than-expected 6.4%, which was the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2003. As for unit labor costs during the second quarter, they fell 5.8%, which was sharper than expected and the steepest drop in eight years.

Though the latest dose of data did little to move the hands of traders, the latest FOMC policy statement and rate decision, which are due tomorrow afternoon, are expected to provide participants with a key trading catalyst. DJ30 -105.65 NASDAQ -27.76 SP500 -14.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 578/1.06 bln/2015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 586/610 mln/2387

12:30 pm : Materials stocks recently made an upward push to its best levels of the session, but the move has been rebuffed so that the sector remains in negative territory with a 0.5% loss. Still, the sector is well off of its low, which carried a loss of 1.3%.

Meanwhile, energy stocks (-1.5%), tech stocks (-1.1%), and telecom stocks (-1.0%) are all at or within a couple of points of their session lows.DJ30 -93.56 NASDAQ -24.67 SP500 -12.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 631/977 mln/1948 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 632/565 mln/2320

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to trade near session lows. Weakness remains widespread.

However, consumer staples stocks have managed to reclaim their losses. They now trade at the unchanged mark after being down roughly 0.2% at their session low. Tobacco outfits Reynolds (RAI 44.55, +0.47) and Lorillard (LO 74.19, +0.70) are providing leadership to the sector.

Other defensive-oriented sectors aren't faring quite so well. Telecom is down 0.8%, while health care and utilities are both down 0.2%.DJ30 -94.84 NASDAQ -24.96 SP500 -12.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 618/877 mln/1954 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 620/515 mln/2325

11:30 am : Modest weakness in the early going has morphed into a considerable late-morning downturn by equities. With stocks trading at fresh session lows, they are facing their worst single-session percentage decline in one month.

The downward move remains broad-based, but financials make up the session's worst offending sector -- financials are down 3.4%, almost double the decline that is currently being registered by industrials (-1.8%), which make up the next worst performing sector.DJ30 -103.31 NASDAQ -28.78 SP500 -13.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 566/767 mln/1954 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 574/453 mln/2335

11:00 am : Financial stocks have fallen under an intensified selling effort that has taken the sector to a 2.4% loss, which is worse than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Bond insurer MBIA (MBI 5.31, -0.86) is a primary laggard in the financial sector after being downgraded by analysts at JPMorgan, but banks are grappling with some of the worst losses. Regional banks are down 3.9% and diversified banks are down 4.1%.

Weakness among financials has undercut the broader market and left it to trade near session lows.DJ30 -87.13 NASDAQ -25.74 SP500 -10.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/643 mln/1860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 602/365 mln/2251

10:35 am : September crude oil was chopping around the flat line overnight between approximately $70.50-71.25 per barrel. However, minutes after the open of floor trading, crude fell sharply from the unchanged line, falling below the $70 level to lows of $69.05 per barrel. Currently, crude is trading 2.1% lower at $69.12 per barrel.

Natural gas traded in positive territory, just above the flat line, in overnight trading, but fell sharply at the open into negative territory to lows of $3.535. Natural gas is currently 2.2% lower at $3.56.

The US Dollar Index traded lower overnight, but spiked around 8:30ET into positive territory, but is only modestly higher currently.

December gold and September silver were trading modestly higher before declining sharply when pit trading began at 8:20ET to lows of $943.60 and $14.235, respectively. In recent trading, gold is back near the flatline, down 0.2% at $945.50 per ounce, while silver is 0.7% lower at $14.26 per ounce.DJ30 -92.73 NASDAQ -23.02 SP500 -11.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 605/510.6 mln/1840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 547/295.7 mln/2256

10:00 am : Wholesale inventories for June decreased 1.7%, which is a sharper decrease than the 0.9% decrease that had been widely expected. The previous figure was revised downward to reflect a 1.2% decrease. Inventories have fallen in each of the past 10 months.

Stocks had been chopping along in negative territory ahead of the report, but are now moving another leg lower in broad-based fashion. As such, all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are now in the red and the S&P 500 is back below 1000.

Early movers: Trading up -- AVNR +73.5%, RWC +43.3%, TXICW +37.5%, ANPI +20.8%, ANDS +19.3%, TXIC +15.5%, BEXP +15.3%, AGM +13.5%, SDTH +13.3%, SNEN +12.8%, SEED +10.8%, HGSI +10.7%, SATS +10.1%, BPI +8.6%, QLGC +7.7%, LGF +7.6%, CT +7.2%, QGEN +6.4%, CELL +6.3%, RAX +6%; Trading down -- PETD -20.4%, ZOLT -17.6%, RINO -15.5%, WH -15.3%, MTXX -14.6%, CRME -13.8%, PANL -13.7%, PRXL -12.4%, DRL -11.3%, CLNE -11.2%, MEA -10%, FRPT -9.7%, CRTX -9.6%, PSB -9.4%, FEED -9.1%, MBI -8.6%, HPT -8.5%, ATSG -7.9%, STSA -7.4%, SPH -7.2%DJ30 -76.48 NASDAQ -15.03 SP500 -7.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 656/291 mln/1671 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 609/196 mln/2106

09:45 am : The major indices are trading with relatively modest, broad-based losses for the second straight session. Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, losses range from the telecom sector's 0.4% loss to the industrial sector's 1.2% loss.

Consumer staples stocks and health care stocks are both making modest gains, however. They are up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Still, the stock market's general weakness has helped Treasuries win support. That has the benchmark up 15 ticks, which has pushed its yield back toward 3.7%. The yield on the 10-year Note has slid roughly 10 basis points since the start of trading yesterday. Treasuries could see some volatility with this afternoon's $37 billion auction of 3-year Treasuries.DJ30 -55.69 NASDAQ -11.53 SP500 -6.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 810/176 mln/1434 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 730/137 mln/1904

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stock futures still suggest a lower start is in order for Tuesday. Like the previous session, though, the downward move looks to be relatively modest as an underlying bid provides an element of support in face of pofit taking. While corporate news flow has slowed dramatically, participants received a couple of cues this morning with the release of the latest in productivity and labor cost data -- productivity in the second quarter increased more than expected and unit labor costs fell more than expected. Wholesale inventory data for June is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET). Participants are also looking forward to the FOMC's policy statement and rate decision, which are due tomorrow afternoon.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. U.S. stock futures have gone on the backslide after momentarily recovering from morning weakness in the wake of the latest productivity and labor cost data. Meanwhile, action is mixed overseas. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.4% with declining issues outnumbering advancers by 3-to-1. Bayer is a primary laggard as the company denies rumors that it is looking to raise capital, according to Reuters. In France, the CAC is up fractionally even though decliners have an edge over advancing issues. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary leader in the CAC. As for Britain, its FTSE is down 0.4% as banking issues come under pressure. HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds Banking (LYG) are all leading losses. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that a trade group said July retail sales in the U.K. were 1.8% higher year-over-year and sentiment in the housing market reached its highest level in almost two years. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.6%. Japan's central bank announced it will keep interest rates steady and will maintain its cautious economic view. Major manufacturers, including Suzuki Motor, Panasonic (PC), Sony (SNE), and Fujitsu said they had not seen damage to their factories by a recent earthquake. However, construction stocks gained. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng gained 0.7% in light trade. Carmaker Dongfeng Group climbed on strong sales growth data for July. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher. Separately, Xinhua reported that new loans slowed in July, according to China's central bank said. Meanwhile, the AP reported China's industrial output, trade and retail sales improved in July.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. Stock futures have improved in the wake of the latest batch of data. According to preliminary readings, second quarter productivity increased 6.4% after a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in the first quarter. Second quarter productivity was expected to increase 5.5%. Meanwhile, unit labor costs during the second quarter fell 5.8%, down from an upwardly revised 2.7% decrease. A 2.5% decline was expected for the second quarter. Wholesale inventory data for June has yet to hit news wires; it is scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Moderate weakness in the previous session has carried over into this morning. In turn, stock futures suggest a slightly lower start for the major indices. For the second straight session there isn't much in the way of corporate news to guide market traders. However, there is some economic data on tap for this morning: second quarter nonfarm productivity and labor cost data are due at the bottom of the hour, while wholesale inventory data for June is due later (10:00 AM ET).

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80.

06:18 am : Nikkei...10585.46...+61.20...+0.60%. Hang Seng...21074.21...+144.70...+0.70%.

06:18 am : FTSE...4721.10...-1.10...0.00. DAX...5414.02...-4.10...-0.10%.

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