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 Post subject: August 10th Monday 2009 Emini ES points +6.25
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:21 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=271

Today was as normal of a trading day as can be considering it was a low volatility range day as the markets prepare for key economic news releases scheduled for Aug 11th Tuesday - 14th Friday. In fact, I'm expecting some fireworks in the market on at least two of those trading days.

As for my trading, trade error in the first trade that was costly considering I missed a Long position that would have generated about +1.75 points per contract along with preventing my from taking the next trade that resulted in a -1.50 point loss. All other trades were well managed as I went into conservative mode.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +6.25 Emini ES points

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Stocks Back Away From Highs
Wall Street retreats as investors plead exhaustion after propelling the S&P nearly 50% in five months. Central bank meeting on tap.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 10, 2009: 6:02 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Monday as investors pulled back ahead of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting and following a big rally that pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to 9-month highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 32 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) dipped 8 points, or 0.4%.

Stocks have rallied on and off since March, with the S&P 500 climbing nearly 50% off its lows as investors welcomed positive earnings surprises and less-bad economic news.

Shares have also benefited from the extensive stimulus efforts, with the Fed pumping trillions into the system and the government introducing programs such as Cash for Clunkers, which has revived auto sales.

After such a run, stocks were a bit weaker Monday. But in general, the trend likely remains up for the time being.

"If someone is not going to be fully invested now, I don't know when they would be," said Will Hepburn, president at Hepburn Capital. "Everything is going up."

A summer rally could probably stretch into fall, but beyond that, stocks are vulnerable, said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group.

"We've seen a little bit of good news, but we're not out of the woods yet," he said.

"Most of the earnings surprises have been from cost cutting rather than topline growth," Barber said. "And once the cost cutting and the effect of the stimulus runs its course, I can't see what's going to cause a continued run up."

Tuesday morning brings the reading on second-quarter productivity and the June wholesale inventories report.

Fed meeting: This week, the focus is on the Federal Reserve, which concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday.

The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at historic lows near zero. Yet, as usual, investors will be focused on what the bank will say in its statement, particularly about the health of the economy, any risk of inflation and what its exit strategy may be after putting so much stimulus into the financial system.

In line with comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the central bank is not really worried about inflation yet. Hepburn said the bankers are not likely to say much about an exit strategy until later in the year.

The consumer will also be in focus this week, with economic reports on inflation, and profit reports from Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) and other retailers.

Wall Street advanced Friday after the government's July jobs report showed unemployment fell for the first time in a year.

Company news: Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) shares gained 1.7% after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to "buy," from "not rated" according to published reports.

McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) reported that sales at stores open a year or more, a retail metric known as same-store sales, rose 2.6% in July, raising hopes that it will see a strong third quarter. Shares gained almost 2%.

Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) shares surged 128% in active trading Monday, one day after the government-run home mortgage lender reported its first quarterly profit in two years. The company, along with Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), was saved from extinction last year amid the credit market collapse after receiving billions in government aid. Fannie Mae gained 51%.

But a variety of economically sensitive shares fell, including Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500). Other Dow losers included Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) and Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500).

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 13 cents to settle at $70.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have been gaining in recent weeks on bets that the global economy is stabilizing.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $12.60 to settle at $946.90 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.77% from 3.84% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The U.S. government is auctioning $75 billion in debt this week as part of its efforts to fuel the economic recovery and manage the budget deficit.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets ended mixed, while Asian markets rallied.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.09 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners edged advancers by a narrow margin on volume of almost 1.88 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Monday made for a rather boring day for stocks. There wasn't any market-moving news and the major indices spent the entire session trading with relatively modest weakness.

At their session lows, stocks were down roughly 1%. The downturn came after a choppy start and a couple of failed attempts to pare losses in the early going. Stocks did manage to retrace the downturn into the close, though.

McDonald's (MCD 56.27, +1.07) provided leadership to blue chips after reporting another monthly increase in global sales. However, the announcement did little for the overall market.

Health care stocks finished the session with some of the best gains. Health care stocks advanced nearly 0.8%. The sector drew support from a broad range of industry players, though Eli Lilly (LLY 33.83, -1.06) lagged after Reuters reported that analysts at Goldman Sachs placed the stock on the Americas Conviction Sell List.

Utilities (+0.2%), consumer staples stocks (+0.2%), and energy stocks (+0.3%) also made gains. The first two sectors put together their advance late in the session, but energy stocks spent the majority of the session in higher ground even as oil prices gyrated. Crude oil futures finished 0.4% lower at $70.62 per barrel.

Gold prices contended with considerable selling pressure for the entire session. They dropped 1.3% to settle at $946.90 per ounce. General weakness among commodity prices weighed on basic materials stocks for the entire session. In turn, the materials sector fell 1.6%, worse than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Trading volume was light this session. Hardly 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. That's the fewest in two weeks and considerably below the near 1.5 billion that have been averaged during the last 200 sessions.DJ30 -32.12 NASDAQ -8.01 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -0.1% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -3.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1285/1.86 bln/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/1.09 bln/1595

3:30 pm : Stocks are attempting to creep toward the unchanged level. All three major averages are still trading with marginal losses, however.

The materials sector continues to lag the broader market this session. As such, precious metals were generally weak. Silver futures prices saw a considerable price decline. The September silver futures opened the pit trade substantially lower and closed near the session's afternoon lows. They closed down 2.1% at $14.36 per ounce.

Gold futures also traded lower this session. They sold off at the open of pit trade and chopped around the same level for the rest of the session. The December contracts closed at $946.90 per ounce, down 1.3%.

Although crude oil futures were in positive territory for most of the afternoon, they eventually returned to their early morning levels; the December contracts closed down 0.4% at $70.62 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas futures sold off into negative territory late in the morning. They closed down 0.5% at $3.65 per contract.DJ30 -44.74 NASDAQ -10.62 SP500 -5.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/1.56 bln/1423 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/780 mln/1663

3:00 pm : Losses continue to be broad based, but the two sectors taking the brunt of today's sell-off are Retail (-2.7%) and Materials (-1.7%). A few stocks in these sectors trading with sharp losses include Gap (GPS 17.90, -0.68), Nordstrom (JWN 29.20, -1.10), and Ross Stores (ROST 44.42, -1.07) in retail; and Alcoa (AA 12.67, -0.33), Mosaic (MOS 52.87, -2.01), and U.S. Steel (X 43.56, -1.34) in the materials sector.

The only major sector trading with gains today is Health care (+0.5%), although gains are still modest.DJ30 -60.9 NASDAQ -15.0 SP500 -6.6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/1412.9/1532 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/707.9/1757

2:30 pm : Stocks recently extended their losses to set a fresh session low, but they are now easing up from of those levels. Trading volume is low.

While the broader market has spent all day contending with selling pressure, McDonald's (MCD 56.22, +1.02) is providing support to the Dow. The fast service restaurant has won support after unveiling this morning global comparable sales growth of 4.3% in July. The company's continued efforts to evolve its menu and offer attractive pricing have driven strong sales growth in recent months, despite ongoing headwinds for consumers.DJ30 -68.09 NASDAQ -17.11 SP500 -7.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1078/1.31 bln/1557 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1193/662 mln/1806

2:00 pm : The major indices have managed to pull up from session lows, but they remain under pressure. In turn, declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 2-to-1 in the Dow and the S&P 500.

While the broader market has pared some of its losses, financials have seen losses intensify. The sector is now down 1.3% after being up modestly in the early going.

Meanwhile, buyers continue to show support for Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Note is now near a session high, up 22 ticks. That has its yield back below 3.8%.DJ30 -53.73 NASDAQ -14.51 SP500 -6.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1118/1.21 bln/1516 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/615 mln/1755

1:30 pm : Stocks are at session lows, which has made the previously modest declines somewhat more meaningful in their magnitude.

The order of action this session remains largely unchanged, though. Materials stocks (-1.9%) continue to lead losses, while energy stocks (+0.1%) and health care stocks (+0.5%) hold on to slight gains.DJ30 -58.34 NASDAQ -16.90 SP500 -7.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1056/1.12 bln/1573 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1186/573 mln/1794

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have spent the entire session chopping along in negative territory. The Dow actually made its way to a fractional gain midmorning, but has since surrendered that position to trade with a modest loss at session lows alongside its counterparts.

The absence of market-moving earnings announcements and economic data has left participants without any trading cues this session. The lack of catalysts left stocks trading without any clear direction in the early going, though the tone has been decidedly negative this session.

Despite the overall downward bias this session, losses among the major indices remain rather contained. Whether losses stay contained by an underlying, supportive bid going forward has yet to be seen, though.

While the broader market has been able to hold up relatively well this session, materials stocks are contending with considerable pressure. They are down 1.9%, more than any other major sector in the S&P 500, amid broad weakness within the sector. Steel stocks (-3.4%) and diversified metals and miners (-1.9%) are among the primary laggards in the sector amid profit taking and news that China has accused Rio Tinto (RTP 155.04, -8.67) of spying.

The consumer discretionary sector isn't far behind. It is down 1.3% as shares of retailers (-2.3%) recoil after ascending more than 5% last week.

Energy stocks are bucking the negative tone and are sporting a modest 0.2% gain, even though oil prices have slipped to a 0.4% loss at $70.65 per barrel. Still, drillers (+0.4%) and exploration companies (+0.9%) are providing support to the sector.

Health care stocks are sporting the best gains of the major sectors, though. As a group, health care stocks are up 0.4%. The sector is seeing broad interest; even pharmaceutical stocks are up 0.5% despite news from Reuters that Eli Lilly (LLY 33.90, -0.99) was added to the Americas Conviction Sell List at Goldman Sachs.DJ30 -46.70 NASDAQ -13.49 SP500 -5.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1164/999 mln/1428 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1316/511 mln/1643

12:30 pm : Stocks are threatening to return to session lows, which were set in the early going, as sellers intensify their efforts. Though stocks are under increased pressure, losses in the broader market aren't quite substantial.

As selling pressure picks up, Treasuries are garnering support. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up 18 ticks, which has put its yield back below 3.8%.

Oil prices are back in the red. They had rebounded from an early decline to trade with a solid gain, but are now trading with a 0.3% loss at $70.70 per barrel. Still, energy stocks are up 0.1%.DJ30 -40.05 NASDAQ -8.96 SP500 -4.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1261/885 mln/1328 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1406/454 mln/1556

12:00 pm : All three major indices continue to trend lower after chopping their way to midmorning highs. Accordingly, weakness remains widespread.

Seven of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are trading lower. Losses remain steepest in the materials sector (-1.6%).

As for the gainers, financials (+0.1%), energy (+0.3%), and health care (+0.4%) have managed to stay in the green. The solid gains from the health care sector come amid losses in biotech stocks (-0.6%), which follows the addition of Eli Lilly (LLY 33.89, -1.01) to the Goldman Sachs Americas Conviction Sell List, according to Reuters.DJ30 -28.03 NASDAQ -7.54 SP500 -3.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1274/793 mln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/415 mln/1534

11:30 am : The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently poked through to positive ground, but has since come under renewed selling pressure. Its counterparts, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, are also on the backslide.

Despite the session's generally negative tone, overall losses remain relatively contained. Advancing issues and decliners in the NYSE are nearly in balance.DJ30 -21.69 NASDAQ -5.54 SP500 -2.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1291/689 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1402/367 mln/1485

11:00 am : Trading this morning remains extremely choppy. Amid the whipsaw action, stocks have made a couple of charges higher, but each time they have been rebuffed and have, in turn, failed to enter positive ground.

While the broader market remains in the red, energy stocks have jumped out to a strong gain. The sector's 0.7% advance comes on the heels of a rebound in oil prices, which were down markedly in the early going, but are now up 0.8% to $71.50 per barrel.DJ30 -7.78 NASDAQ -1.80 SP500 -1.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1266/574 mln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/312 mln/1428

10:35 am : Equity markets opened lower and continue trading in negative territory in current activity. The US Dollar Index traded lower for most of its overnight session, but moved into positive territory and is trading near recent highs.

September crude oil chopped around just below the unchanged line in early morning trade and touched morning lows of $70.09 per barrel minutes before the open of pit trading. At the open, crude bounced off lows and pushed into positive territory and remains there in current activity trading 0.4% higher at $71.24 per barrel.

September natural gas opened in positive territory and continues to trade higher, currently up 1.2% at $3.718.

December gold chopped around just below the flat line overnight, but at the open of floor trading, gold fell over $10 per ounce to morning low of $944.20 per ounce and is currently trading near those lows, down 1.2% at $947.90 per ounce.

September silver also opened lower and fell sharply to its own morning lows of $14.275 per ounce. In current trading, silver is 1.8% lower at $14.41 per ounce.DJ30 -11.33 NASDAQ -0.95 SP500 -1.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/441.6 mln/1232 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/247.3 mln/1539

10:00 am : The major indices remain in negative territory, but the overall direction this moring remains unclear as stocks gyrate during the first few minutes of trade.

Health care stocks have managed to make their way into positive territory and are now sporting a 0.3% gain.

Financials recently surrendered their initial gains and fell into negative ground, but the sector has since managed to rebound to trade with a fractional gain.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, the two sectors are the only ones to sport gains.

Early movers: Trading up -- ELON +17%, OPXA +14.9%, BKS +13.3%, INO +12.9%, TIBX +12%, CHDX +11.4%, PCLN +11.1%, YRCW +11.1%, SSP +10.1%, AIG +9.9%, DISH +9.4%, IEC +8.8%, MPS +8.5%, CPF +8.3%, FRED +8.3%, HRL +7%, NEP +6.9%, CTBK +6.5%; Trading down -- OCN -29.5%, SMED -21.1%, BBX -12.9%, GSI -12.9%, PMI -8.8%, EPAY -8.4%, MHLD -7.6%, LYG -7.6%, RBS -7.5%, TRW -6.8%, AVII -6.7%, RGNC -6.5%, NXG -6.4%, VNDA -6.2%DJ30 -20.20 NASDAQ -1.58 SP500 -2.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1152/242 mln/1234 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1101/162 mln/1615

09:45 am : Stocks are trading modestly lower in the first few minutes of action. The decline is broad-based, though, as nine of the 10 major sectors move lower.

Losses are steepest among materials stocks, which are down 1.0%. Steel stocks are weighing heavily on the sector (-1.5%), as is a drop in gold prices, which are down 1.1% to $946.70 per ounce.

Financial stocks are up 0.2% at the moment. They represent the only major sector to sport a gain. The sector's early strength comes from diversified financial services players (+1.6%) and multiline insurers (+2.3%).DJ30 -24.48 NASDAQ -4.26 SP500 -2.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1004/152 mln/1300 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/118 mln/1618

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. After four straight weekly gains, during which time stocks advanced some 15%, market participants are pushing stock futures lower ahead of this morning's opening bell. That doesn't mean the overall bias has changed direction, though. Especially considering that stocks opened lower plenty of times during the last few weeks, but a supportive, underlying bid helped the market overcome selling pressure and move markedly higher. However, such a strong move in such a short amount of time has many pundits calling for a broader-market pullback. This week's trading will most likely be directed by economic data since the vast majority of widely-held companies have already reported their quarterly results. While there isn't any data due today, many are already looking ahead to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and policy statement.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Stock futures continue to trade with weakness. Commodities are also under pressure as gold futures contracts price the yellow metal 1.3% lower at $944.60 per ounce in pit trade. Crude oil contracts are pricing the stuff 0.9% lower at roughly $70.35 per barrel. Their downward move comes even though the U.S. dollar is essentially unchanged against a basket of major foreign currencies currently.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with weakness. European markets are also contending with a fit of selling pressure. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.9% as automakers Daimler (DAI) and Volkswagen lead losses. Decling issues outnumber advancers by nearly 3-to-1 in the German bourse. As for France, its benchmark index, the CAC, is off by 0.7%. Weakness is broad-based as pharmaceuticals outfit Sanofi-Aventis (SNE), energy giant Total (TOT), and financial firm Societe Generale all trade markedly lower. In Britain, the FTSE has shed 0.6%. Metals and mining giants Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP) are primary laggards following news that China has stepped up its allegations of espionage against Rio Tinto. Financial firms HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) are also under pressure in Britain. Markets fared much better in Asia, where Japan's Nikkei hit its highest close in 10 months after advancing 1.1%. Japan's machinery orders climbed in June for the first time in four months. Honda Motor (HMC) was a primary leader. Toyota Motor (TM) also gained. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng added 2.7% to recoup last week's losses. The index finished Monday at its highest closing level since September 2008. Financials HSBC, Industrial and Commercial Bank of Hong Kong, and China Construction Bank led the advance.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. Premarket trading is taking on a slightly negative tone to push stock futures lower amid a lack of market-moving earnings announcements and the absence of economic data. Action overseas is relatively mixed as the major European bourses trade with marked losses, but the major Asian markets have logged impressive gains. According to Reuters, analysts at Goldman Sachs have raised their GDP forecasts for Asia based on a stronger outlook for the U.S. and China.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50.

06:22 am : Nikkei...10524.26...+112.20...+1.10%. Hang Seng...20929.52...+554.20...+2.70%.

06:22 am : FTSE...4704.19...-27.40...-0.60%. DAX...5421.75...-44.70...-0.70%.

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