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 Post subject: August 7th Friday 2009 Emini ES points +29.25
PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:53 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=270

Today was the first trading day I felt comfortable increasing my position size since I started doing it consistently after returning from vacation. The main reason for the increased position size is because my market analysis tells me there will soon be a strong parabolic price movement (up or down) and I want to be trading some size to exploit such for big profits especially since I'm using a volatility based trading method that's designed to exploit volatility.

As for specifics about today's trading for me...the 2nd and 4th trades of the day were my best mainly because there was no hesitation nor overanalysis in comparison to few of the other trades.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +29.25 Emini ES points

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Dow and S&P at New '09 Highs
Wall Street gains after a smaller-than-expected number of jobs lost and a surprise drop in the unemployment rate.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 7, 2009: 4:12 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at the highest point in nine months, after the July jobs report showed the smallest number of job cuts in nearly a year, adding to recovery hopes.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 113 points, or 1.5%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 13 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 27 points, or 1.4%.

All three indexes finished higher for the week.

Employers cut 247,000 jobs from their payrolls in July after slashing a revised 443,000 jobs in June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought they would cut 325,000 jobs. It was the lowest level of losses since last August.

"It was the best reading on non-farm payrolls since before Lehman's collapse last September, which was the pivotal event that precipitated the crisis," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

The report seemed to confirm other recent indications that the economy is stabilizing.

"Leading indicators have priced in a recovery for a while, now lagging indicators like unemployment are too," he said.

Although employment is seen as a lagging indicator in any recovery, the steady march higher of the unemployment rate over recent months has added to investor anxiety about the health of the economy.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, fell to 9.4% in July from 9.5% in June, versus forecasts for a rise to 9.6%.

The stock advance was broad based, with 24 of 30 Dow components rising, led by IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500).

Stocks slipped Thursday, the second straight decline, as investors took a step back after the recent big rally and ahead of the jobs report.

The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all hit fresh 2009 highs earlier in the week, following three weeks of gains. Since bottoming March 9 at a 12-year low, the S&P 500 has risen 49% as of Friday morning.

Quarterly results: AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) reported its first quarterly profit in nearly two years Friday, but the troubled insurer continues to struggle in the aftermath of its near-collapse last fall. AIG still owes taxpayers $87.6 billion.

The stock nearly doubled in the run-up to the profit report. AIG gained another 19% Friday.

Cash for Clunkers: President Obama on Friday signed into law an extension of the auto sales stimulus program that will keep it running through Labor Day. On Thursday night, the Senate approved $2 billion in extra funding for the popular program, which gives consumers up to $4500 if they turn in gas guzzlers and buy more fuel-efficient models.

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.101 to settle at $70.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have been gaining in recent weeks on bets the global economy is close to turning around.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $3.40 to settle at $959.50 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.85% from 3.75% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets rallied after the release of the U.S. jobs report. Asian markets ended lower -- with the exception of the Nikkei -- losing steam ahead of the jobs report.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Stocks ended the week on a strong note by logging impressive, broad-based gains. That gave the S&P 500 its fourth straight weekly advance, during which time it has climbed 15% and left stocks at fresh highs for 2009.

Friday's positive bias followed a better-than-expected jobs report, which showed the fewest amount of job losses in nearly one year by coming in at 247,000 for July. The consensus estimate called for 350,000 job losses. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased back for the first time since April by coming in at 9.4%, down from 9.5%. It was expected to click up to 9.6%.

Though economic conditions aren't yet optimal, participants responded to the data with a concerted buying effort. There was some profit taking that followed the market's initial gap up and gains faded into the close, but a persistent bid has kept the stock market's overall momentum trending upward.

The upbeat tone helped drive the U.S. dollar sharply higher. In turn, the Dollar Index logged its best single-session percentage gain since mid June by jumping 1.2%.

Nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finished higher. Energy (-0.1%) was the sole decliner after oil prices fell 1.5% to settle at $70.88 per barrel amid a stronger dollar. Consumer discretionary stocks logged the best gains by advancing 3.3% as the sector made its way to a fresh high for 2009. Industrial stocks (+2.5%) and financials (+2.7%) were also propelled to fresh highs 2009.

AIG (AIG 27.14, +4.61) was a primary leader in the financial sector after posting its first profit since 2007. What's more, the company's earnings exceeded expectations. On the other hand, Ambac Financial (ABK 1.04, -0.34) plummeted after reporting a considerable loss for the second quarter.

Beazer Homes (BZH 3.82, +0.51) reported a less severe loss than what had been expected of the company and it also unveiled a lower cancellation rate and a higher number of closings. Beazer's pleasing results and comments came just a few days after pending home sales for June made a surprisingly strong increase. Homebuilders finished the session 7.2% higher, but up some 13% for the week.

Despite what would seem to be a couple of encouraging developments from the housing sector, mortgage financer Fannie Mae (FNM 0.65, -0.14) failed to keep the good news going when it posted a deeper-than-expected loss for the latest quarter. Its shares plummeted.

Trading volume was decent as nearly 1.5 million shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. Low trading volume has been a consistent characteristic of trading this summer, though. According to recent data, average daily volume for the NYSE, NYSE Arca, and NYSE Amex U.S. cash products in July 2009 dropped 24% year-over-year.

News flow will likely slow next week since the number of companies scheduled to make quarterly announcements drops dramatically. That will bring economic data into sharper focus and leaves the August 12 FOMC meeting as the key event. DJ30 +113.81 NASDAQ +27.09 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +2.7% SP400 +2.6% SP500 +13.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1913/2.35 bln/755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2354/1.47 bln/685

3:30 pm : Despite spending virtually the entire session trading higher, the CRB Commodity Index recently succumbed to the pressure of a higher U.S. dollar. With the greenback making its best single-session gain in more than one month by climbing 1.2% against a basket of major foreign currencies, the CRB Commodity Index is now down 0.2%.

Weighing on the CRB was a 1.5% decline in oil prices, which settled at $70.88 per barrel. Natural gas prices shed 2.0% to settle at $3.70 per contract.

As for metals, gold shed 0.3% to close pit trade at $959.80 per ounce. Silver bucked the negative trend and settled fractionally higher at $14.67 per ounce.DJ30 +145.56 NASDAQ +29.64 SP500 +14.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1877/1.95 bln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2369/1.05 bln/661

3:00 pm : While the broader market continues to trade with impressive gains, homebuilders (+7.3%) are faring even better. Their gains come in the wake of less severe loss than what was expected from Beazer Homes (BZH 3.88, +0.57). The firm also saw a lower cancellation rate and a higher number of closings. The company also indicated that comparisons for the next two quarters should be positive.

Beazer's pleasing results and comments come just a few days after pending home sales for June made a surprisingly strong increase.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae (FNM 0.65, -0.14) posted a deeper-than-expected loss for the latest quarter. Credit related expenses underpinned the results.DJ30 +151.68 NASDAQ +33.46 SP500 +17.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1912/1.77 bln/755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2403/944 mln/625

2:30 pm : Ninety percent of the companies in the S&P 500 are sporting gains and advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-1 in the Nasdaq Composite. Meanwhile, all 30 Dow components are trading higher.

The upbeat tone has been present since the start of the session.

Conversely, Treasuries have been under pressure all session. Though off of its low, the benchmark 10-year Note is down a substantial 26 ticks. That has its yield up above 3.8%, which is a monthly high.DJ30 +160.59 NASDAQ +34.14 SP500 +18.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1921/1.67 bln/733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2435/883 mln/595

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with considerable gains as the major averages drift along near session highs.

The U.S. dollar is also putting together an impressive showing. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 1.1% in its best single-session percentage gain since mid June.

Despite the strength of the greenback, commodities are having a relatively strong session overall. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.6%, even though gold prices closed 0.3% lower at $959.80 per ounce and oil prices are down 0.6% at $71.50 per barrel.DJ30 +165.66 NASDAQ +36.25 SP500 +19.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1949/1.54 bln/698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2451/821 mln/551

1:30 pm : Stocks have managed to move another leg higher and are now at their best levels of the session. The stock market's upward momentum during recent weeks has been considerable.

Now that most of the widely-held companies have already reported, earnings announcements begin to slow next week. That will leave buyers looking for catalysts to keep the stock market's momentum on a positive track. That means most eyes will be fixed up on the FOMC policy statement, which will follow the committee's meeting on August 12. DJ30 +172.76 NASDAQ +37.35 SP500 +20.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1958/1.43 bln/668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2446/775 mln/552

1:00 pm : A better-than-expected jobs report for July has brought about a concerted, broad-based buying effort that has taken the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh highs for 2009.

The buying effort follows news that 247,000 jobs were lost during July. Economists, on average, had expected 350,000 job losses for last month. What's more, job loss totals fell to their lowest level in nearly one year and the unemployment rate eased back to 9.4% from 9.5%. Though the data certainly don't suggest conditions are strong, they are less bad than before.

The payrolls report has overshadowed the day's corporate headlines, though news that AIG (AIG 26.63, +4.10) topped the consensus earnings estimate by recording its first profit since 2007 has been a talking point.

Shares of AIG are providing leadership to the financial sector, which is up 3.9%, followed by the consumer discretionary sector (+3.2%), and the industrials sector (+2.8%). Along with the broader market, those three sectors have also reached highs for 2009.

There was some profit taking in the market's initial gap up, but the effort was short lived as the stock market's upward momentum carried stocks markedly higher in the face of the widely held view that stocks are overbought in the near term, having climbed nearly 15% during the past four weeks.DJ30 +146.99 NASDAQ +34.20 SP500 +17.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1918/1.29 bln/695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2383/697 mln/590

12:30 pm : Stocks are drifting sideways after climbing to session highs more than one hour ago. Gains remain broad and healthy as a result. In fact, advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 7-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Gains are even more impressive among small- and mid-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 2.8% as nearly 90% of its components trade higher and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 2.5% as more than 90% of its components sport gains.DJ30 +132.41 NASDAQ +30.99 SP500 +15.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/1.18 bln/707 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2355/646 mln/609

12:00 pm : Energy stocks are lagging as they trade with a 0.5% gain. However, their position is much improved from earlier, when the sector briefly traded in negative territory.

The energy sector's early weakness came as oil prices fell under pressure. A recent rebound by crude oil futures has restored interest in the energy sector, though. Crude oil prices are now up 0.5% to $72.30 per barrel after being down as low as $70.70 per barrel.

The rebound by oil comes in the face of a stronger dollar, which is up 1.0% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 +136.56 NASDAQ +33.47 SP500 +16.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/1.08 bln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2377/601 mln/572

11:30 am : All 10 of the major sectors in the S&P 500 are sporting gains. Half of them are up by more than 1%.

Shares of retailers are outperforming the broader market for the second straight session. As a group, retailers have ascended to a 3.0% gain this session. With that, retailers are now up more than 4% since the closing bell on Wednesday.

Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.19, +1.91) is one of the best performers among retailers. The stock was upgraded by analysts at Barclays after the retailer reported yesterday an increase in second quarter net sales. Footwear maker Crocs (CROX 5.65, +1.38) is surging, though, after it reported this morning better-than-expected quarterly results.DJ30 +138.22 NASDAQ +31.42 SP500 +16.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1878/941 mln/651 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2347/535 mln/584

11:00 am : The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have made a strong upturn from their morning lows and now trade at fresh session highs.

Financials are providing leadership to the advance. Financial stocks are now up 3.7%, as a group. AIG (AIG 27.30, +4.77) is a primary leader in the financial sector after the company reported its first profit since 2007. What's more, the company's earnings were better than expected.

Amid the strength in stocks, Treasuries have fallen sharply out of favor. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down nearly one full point. That has its yield quickly approaching 3.9%.DJ30 +150.69 NASDAQ +28.01 SP500 +16.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/761 mln/637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2294/431 mln/576

10:30 am : Stocks are chopping along after surrenduring some of their initial gains. As for commodities, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.3%, though its underlying components are seeing mixed action.

Gold prices are currently down 0.2% to $959.00 per ounce. The downturn by gold prices marks a pullback from a two-month high in the previous session. Meanwhile, silver prices are down fractionally, trading hands at $14.62 per ounce.

As for energy, futures contracts are pricing oil at $71.30 per barrel, down 0.9%. Natural gas was recently trading hands at roughly $3.77 per contract, down 0.7%.DJ30 +88.12 NASDAQ +16.49 SP500 +9.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/546 mln/757 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2097/315 mln/699

10:00 am : Stocks began to reclaim some of the gains that were lost in the first few minutes of trading, but are now contending with a flurry of selling, which has taken stocks to morning lows. Gains remain broad-based, though.

Financials continue to trade with the most handsome gains; the sector had been up more than 2%, but is now up 1.7%. Consumer discretionary stocks aren't far behind the financial sector, though. Consumer discretionary stocks are up a healthy 1.1% as shares of broadcasting outfit CBS (CBS 10.19, +1.65) surge following the company's better-than-expected second quarter earnings report.

Early movers: Trading up -- CBS +28.3%, CROX +27.4%, HANS +18%, KNOT +17.1%, CQB +16.3%, BRKS +15.9%, NPD +13.8%, FSYS +13.7%, BTN +13.3%, AIG +12.8%, LINTA +12.5%, BZH +12.1%, STKL +11.4%, ESC +11%, EBS +10.6%, THS +9.6%, WATG +8.8%, NABI +8.7%, AINV +8.6%; Trading down -- LEAP -19.8%, ERII -18.2%, STV -16.9%, MGI -16.8%, PMI -13.4%, RBS -11.9%, SQNM -11.7%, LMNX -10.9%, AKF -10.1%, MVIS -9.2%, CRA -8.3%, LYV -7.2%, CIT-A -7%, KSP -6.9%, LPNT -6.8%DJ30 +55.70 NASDAQ +16.34 SP500 +7.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/347 mln/677 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2042/228 mln/670

09:45 am : The major indices are making strong gains in the first few minutes of trade, but they have pulled back a bit from their opening highs. Still, nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in positive territory.

Financials are making the best gains thus far. The sector is up 1.5%, which brings its week-to-date gain to roughly 9%.

Materials stocks are lagging as they trade with a 0.1% loss. The sector's downturn comes amid weakness in fertilizer and chemical stocks (-1.3%) following disappointing earnings from Intrepid Potash (IPI 24.71, -1.49). DJ30 +64.99 NASDAQ +19.31 SP500 +8.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1667/211 mln/575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2131/162 mln/519

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.30. Stock futures had spent most of the morning moving sideways along the unchanged mark until a better-than-expected jobs report for July induced a spike in buying that has taken stock futures markedly higher. The 247,000 jobs that were lost last month still suggests that the labor market is week, but the fact that the tally marked the fewest job losses since August of 2008 is telling that things have improved. However, the wide recognition that the economy is not in the same place that it was six months ago has been a driving force behind the stock market's heady moves in recent months. With that, some believe the exhuberance behind the recovery trade has led to an overbought market. In turn, market watchers shouldn't be surprised if participants move to take profits in the belief that the latest batch of good news has already been priced into stocks. The stock market is currently up 1% week-to-date, up more than 13% during the past four weeks, and up 50% from its bear market low in March.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.50. Following the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, the major European indices have turned morning losses into midsession gains. In turn, Germany's DAX is now up 1.1%. However, its declining issues still outnumber its advancers by 2-to-1. Allianz (AZ) is a primary laggard following a reported profit drop. According to The Wall Street Journal, Allianz saw its profit from continuing operations in the second quarter drop 16% year-over-year. The company did not give an earnings target for 2009. Meanwhile, Dow Jones reported that German industrial production was weaker than expected in June. Reportedly, industrial output slipped 0.1% in June. In France, the CAC is up 0.7% amid weakness in Peugeot SA and Sanofi Aventis (SNE). As for Britain, its benchmark index, the FTSE, is up a modest 0.2%. Banks are showing particular weakness following a worse-than-expected loss from Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). In turn, RBS, HSBC (HBC), and Lloyds Banking (LYG) are leading losses. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shed 0.7%, while Japan's Nikkei eked out a 0.2% gain. Toray Industries spiked after raising its first-half operating forecast. Rohto Pharmaceutical also made an impressive upward move after posting an 81% year-over-year increase in first quarter operating profit. After the close, tire maker Bridgestone reported an operating loss for the second quarter, but raised its full-year outlook. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 2.5% amid concern that the mainland's central bank would tighten credit conditions. That led to weakness in lenders as China Construction Bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of Communications faltered. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite fell 2.9%.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. Stock futures have ripped higher in the wake of the July Nonfarm Payrolls Report, which indicated that 247,000 jobs were lost lost month. Economists, on average, had expected 325,000 job losses. Meanwhile, job losses for June were downwardly revised to 443,000 from 467,000. With that, the unemployment rate now stands at 9.4%. It was expected to come in at 9.6% after hitting 9.5% in June. Average weekly hours worked stopped its downward trend by rising to 33.1 hours from 30 average weekly hours in June. As for earnings, average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month. They were expected to make a 0.1% monthly increase. The reading for June was flat.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. Stock futures are flat ahead of the government's July nonfarm payroll report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. The consensus estimate calls for 325,000 job losses and an unemployment rate of 9.6%, but meaningful surprises in either direction could force a marked move by stocks after the market essentially drifted sideways during the past few sessions. The degree of any such move could be amplified by profit takers hurriedly looking to lock in the gains from recent weeks, or current short positions that are forced to cover after betting that the stock market had become overbought. News flow ahead of the jobs report has been rather quiet, though word that AIG (AIG) reported its first profit since 2007 has attracted some positive attention. The company's better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $2.57 per share has pushed its shares up roughly 6% to $23.90 per share in premarket trading.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50.

06:14 am : Nikkei...10412.09...+24.00...+0.20%. Hang Seng...20375.37...-523.90...-2.50%.

06:14 am : FTSE...4636.29...-54.40...-1.20%. DAX...5328.71...-41.30...-0.80%.

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