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 Post subject: August 6th Thursday 2009 Emini ES points +21.75
PostPosted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:12 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=269

Made a needed adjustment in my trade management of profitable trades that go my way by +1 point by via exiting the trade to bank some money instead of moving my stop into a breakeven or 1 tick trailing stop. I notice in my trading recently the breakeven trailing stop for my first few profitable trades has been leaving a lot of money on the table...making trading stressful for the remainder of the day.

With that adjustment, I then go back to my normal trade management approach after several profitable trades. By the way, Emini ES respected a lot of WRB s/r zones today along with producing many trade signals from the strategies that resulted in profits.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +21.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Retreat As Jobs Report Looms
Markets slip as investors bail out of issues that helped lead the recent rally. July employment data weighs on Wall Street.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 6, 2009: 4:11 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks dipped Thursday -- on the eve of the closely watched July jobs report -- with investors bailing out of tech, financial and commodity shares in a step back from the big rally of the past month.

The selling pressure overshadowed any relief felt by the government's weekly jobless claims report showing a surprising drop.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 24 points, or 0.3%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 6 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 20 points or 1%.

Stocks surged in July and touched multi-month highs earlier this week, on relief that the economy and corporate profits seem to be close to stabilizing. But after hitting those levels Tuesday, stocks have slipped, with investors cashing out of some of the big winners during the run.

"A little pullback wouldn't be surprising considering the advance we've seen," said John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Wealth Management. "But I think we're setting up for another leg up, either here or 5% to 7% below where we are now."

Stocks have been more or less on the rise since the S&P 500 closed at 12-year lows on March 9. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 48%.

The bulk of that advance came through mid-June, before stocks dipped in anticipation of weaker earnings. But a better-than-expected reporting period has recharged the advance.

"I think we're preparing for a leg three of the rally, powered by better-than-expected economic reports," Merrill said. "The economy is starting to improve because of inventory restocking, Asian growth and government stimulus, like the Cash for Clunkers program."

Cash for Clunkers gives consumers a rebate of up to $4,500 in exchange for trading in a gas guzzler and buying a more fuel-efficient auto. The Senate is expected to approve another $2 billion in funding for the program shortly.

Economy: Friday brings the big July monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor. Employers are expected to have cut 328,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 467,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment report, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have inched up to 9.6% from 9.5% last month.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment to 550,000 last week from 588,000 in the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought claims would rise to 580,000, according to Briefing.com forecasts.

The report was the latest lead-in to the monthly figures.

On Wednesday, the monthly report from payroll-services firm ADP showed that private-sector employers cut 371,000 in July, worse than expected, but the smallest monthly total since October.

A tepid batch of July retail sales from the nation's chains, released Thursday, show the impact of the sluggish labor market.

Results: Late Wednesday, tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) reported lower revenue that met estimates and lower earnings that topped estimates. Looking forward, the company cut its current-quarter revenue outlook and CEO John Chambers said it was too soon to call a recovery. Shares of the Dow component were little changed Thursday.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) continued to rise Thursday as investors piled in ahead of its quarterly results, due out Friday. The troubled insurer, 80% owned by the government, has nearly doubled its value this week, despite remaining mired in debt.

Other troubled financials rallied too, including mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), which were taken over by the government last year.

The rest of the financial sector was mixed, with Dow component American Express (BAC, Fortune 500) up nearly 3% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) down nearly 3%.

Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) slumped after the Dow component reported weaker quarterly results Wednesday and warned that it would post lower profit in the current quarter as well.

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 3 cents to settle at $71.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing bigger morning losses. Oil prices have been gaining over the last few weeks on bets that the global economy is close to turning a corner.

Big oil stocks slipped, including Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

COMEX gold for December delivery fell 60 cents to $965.70 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.75% from 3.74% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European and Asian markets rallied.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners three to two on volume of 1.05 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by over two to one on volume of 2.09 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : For the second straight session stocks saw a relatively solid start turn into a loss, but this time the financial sector joined the broader market in negative territory.

The major indices opened higher following a smaller-than-expected weekly initial jobless claims tally of 550,000. Though continuing claims were more-than-expected at 6.31 million, up from the previous week, the overall reaction to the data was moderately positive.

With jobless claims still at uncomfortable levels, participants await the government's nonfarm payrolls report for July in order to get an updated read on the employment picture. The report is due tomorrow morning before the opening bell. There was some chatter that recent payrolls numbers could show a major, negative revision, but the CNBC reported that official statistic sources said revisions that may occur will be reported in February.

Financials finished 0.7% lower after logging gains in each of the five previous sessions. Multiline insurers (+1.3%) provided a supportive boon for the sector, but general weakness in the rest of the sector caused it to underperform. The sector had actually been up more than 1% in the early going.

Industrials made up the only sector to hold its initial gains into the close. It finished 0.6% higher. Utilities comprised the only other sector to log a gain; it garnered support into the close to finish with a 0.2% gain.

Tech lagged for the entire session as Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.31, +0.14) underperformed during morning trade. However, the company was able to recover in afternoon trading and close with a gain. The company posted last evening better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but issued an uninspiring revenue forecast during its conference call.

Other earnings announcements were generally met with little reaction. July same-store sales results for retailers were largely unimpressive, as well, but upside guidance from Gap (GPS 18.14, +1.37), Kohl's (KSS 51.02, +1.51), and Macy's (M 15.01, +0.79) helped push the group up 1.1%. That essentially erased the group's losses during the past two sessions.

Despite two consecutive losses, the broader market is still up 1% week-to-date. Should the gains hold through Friday's action, the stock market will have logged four consecutive weekly advances.DJ30 -24.71 NASDAQ -19.89 NQ100 -0.9% R2K -1.5% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -5.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 816/2.43 bln/1812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1147/1.38 bln/1878

3:35 pm : The CRB Commodity Index fell 1.3% this session. This move follows a gain in the index of about 15% over the past month. The dollar moved higher this session after trading near the lows of 2009, perpetuating that move in commodities.

Natural gas futures experienced the largest declines of all commodities this session. The September natural gas futures hit fresh session lows following a greater-than-expected build in their inventory report this morning. They extended these losses and closed down 6.9% at $3.76 per contract. Crude oil futures also sold off early in the session. However, they were able to recoup most of their losses to finish down 0.2% at $71.84 per barrel.

Precious metals traded higher this morning but subsequently succumbed to selling pressure as the dollar sported gains. Both gold and silver futures closed lower. The December gold contracts closed 0.4% lower at $962.90 per ounce and September silver contracts closed 0.8% lower at $14.65 per ounce.DJ30 -23.05 NASDAQ -15.56 SP500 -4.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/2.03 bln/1775 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/1.02 bln/1814

3:00 pm : Stocks are trying to lift up from session lows, but weakness remains widespread.

Losses are particularly strong among small-cap stocks, which are down 1.5%, according to the Russell 2000. Declining issues outnumber advancers in the Russell 2000 by 3-to-1.DJ30 -52.37 NASDAQ -21.95 SP500 -7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 771/1.89 bln/1840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1067/940 mln/1931

2:30 pm : Financial stocks continue to slide. The sector is now down 1.2%, just shy of its session low.

Within the financial sector, diversified banks (-1.4%), specialized finance companies (-2.2%), and life and health insurers (-3.0%) are seeing the most selling pressure.

Even JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.38, -1.40) is seeing considerable losses despite being initiated with a Buy rating by analysts at Deutsche Bank. However, analysts at Citigroup have won favor for American Express (AXP 31.15, +0.79) by upgrading the stock. DJ30 -52.45 NASDAQ -23.12 SP500 -8.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 753/1.77 bln/1840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1058/884 mln/1941

2:00 pm : After spending the last two hours oscillating between 995 and 1000, the S&P 500 has broken out of its recent trading range to register a fresh session low.

As such, losses remain broad-based as declining issues outnumber advancers by roughly 2-to-1 in the S&P 500. Half of the 10 major sectors are trading with losses in excess of 1%.DJ30 -53.05 NASDAQ -21.02 SP500 -8.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 797/1.64 bln/1779 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/813 mln/1894

1:30 pm : Stocks are drifting sideways, just a few points above session lows. Losses, however, have intensified among commodities; in turn, the CRB Commodity Index is now down 1.6%.

Despite such considerable weakness among commodities, basic materials stocks (-0.5%) are trading relatively in-line with the broader market. Steel stocks remain a primary component of strength for the materials sector -- steel stocks are up 0.6% as a group.DJ30 -28.04 NASDAQ -13.97 SP500 -4.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 913/1.49 bln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1282/746 mln/1697

1:00 pm : Stocks started the session modestly higher, but quickly succumbed to selling pressure that has left the major indices trading in negative territory. The pullback has been broad-based, leaving nine of the 10 major sectors with losses as the broader market chops along near its session lows.

Financials showed continued leadership in the early going by jumping out to another plus-1% gain. The early advance was led by bond insurer MBIA (MBI 6.29, +0.76), which received a favorable response to its latest quarterly report. However, the financial sector has since come under pressure and trading with a 0.2% loss.

Industrial stocks are now the only major sector in the S&P 500 to sport a gain. They are currently up 0.9%.

Tech stocks have led a rather quiet session, even though Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.13, -0.04) posted better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. However, the company issued an uninspiring revenue forecast during its conference call.

The remainder of earnings failed to inspire broad-based buying, as well. Prudential (PRU 46.17, -0.71) and Comcast (CMSCA 15.15, +0.09) beat expectations, but Allstate (ALL 27.32, -0.91) and News Corp (NWSA 10.70, +0.12) missed. News Corp is reportedly planning to begin charging for certain online content.

Monthly same-store sales were generally unimpressive, but upside guidance from Gap (GPS 18.17, +1.40), Kohl's (KSS 51.02, +1.51), and Macy's (M 14.94, +0.72) have won support for retailers, which are up 1.3%.

The upbeat forecast from the trio comes despite an uncertain macro outlook, which features challenging job conditions. Initial jobless claims for the latest week hit 550,000, which is less than the 580,000 claims that were expected, but continuing claims clicked up to 6.31 million from the previous week and exceeded the 6.25 million continuing claims that were widely expected. The data won't factor into tomorrow's official nonfarm payrolls report for July, but there is chatter that a large, negative revision to job loss figures from January to May could be revealed with the jobs report tomorrow. DJ30 -34.16 NASDAQ -17.04 SP500 -5.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/1.39 bln/1688 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/704 mln/1725

12:30 pm : Stocks are back near their session lows following another fit of selling pressure. The midday pullback comes amid comments from CNBC's Rick Santelli that job loss totals for recent months could be revised considerably higher. Such a revision would likely be revealed with tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report. The consensus estimate calls for 328,000 job losses for July.

This morning's batch of weekly jobless claims won't be a part of the tally. Some 550,000 initial claims were filed for the week ending August 1.DJ30 -36.95 NASDAQ -19.17 SP500 -6.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 834/1.28 bln/1704 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/658 mln/1768

12:00 pm : Stocks have stalled upon reaching the neutral line and are, once again, on the backslide.

Industrial stocks have emerged to sport a solid gain, though. The sector is currently up 0.9%, more than any other major sector in the S&P 500, amid leadership from bellwether General Electric (GE 14.32, +0.33). This session's advance by GE has taken the stock back within close range of its six-month high, which was reached in ealy May. There isn't any individual news item or clear catalyst to account for the bounce by GE.DJ30 -17.53 NASDAQ -13.33 SP500 -3.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 936/1.14 bln/1582 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1286/593 mln/1628

11:30 am : Stocks continue to pare their morning losses. That has the Dow back near the unchanged mark, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are close behind.

Commodities remain stuck in a rut of relative weakness, however. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.9%.

A stronger U.S. dollar is exacerbating weakness in the commodities space. The greenback is currently up 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 -5.82 NASDAQ -7.38 SP500 -2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 976/1.01 bln/1511 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/532 mln/1584

11:00 am : The S&P 500 is making its way back to the 1000 mark after succumbing to a fit of selling pressure that took the stock market as low as 995.

MBIA (MBI 6.46, +0.93) is a primary leader in the S&P 500. The bond insurer is garnering support after it reported earnings of $4.30 per share for its latest quarter. That's still down sharply from the $7.14 per share that was earned in the same period one year ago.

Conversely, Darden Restaurants (DRI 32.49, -1.54) is a primary laggard as it shares in weakness of Brinker International (EAT 15.19, -3.14). Brinker posted better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter, but also issued downside guidance. DJ30 -18.67 NASDAQ -13.57 SP500 -4.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 831/847 mln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1136/457 mln/1714

10:35 am : September crude traded near the flat line in early morning activity, but fell sharply at the open of pit trading to lows of $70.16 per barrel. Currently, crude is 1.7% lower at $70.76 per barrel.

September natural gas was tracking crude this morning and touched lows of $3.934 ahead of this morning's inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 66 bcf (consensus is 61 bcf), natural gas fell to fresh lows of $3.776 and is currently trading 5.2% lower at $3.821.

The dollar index continues trending higher and is currently trading near recent highs. Precious metals are trading near the flat line this morning as December gold is trading around $967.20 per ounce, while Sept silver is trading 0.1% higher at $14.785 per ounce.DJ30 -38.92 NASDAQ -18.12 SP500 -6.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 714/681.3/1678 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1017/376.6 mln/1804

10:00 am : A recent fit of selling pressure has undercut the early advance by stocks. Though the stock market is now trading with a modest loss, underlying action is relatively mixed as four of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 continue to sport gains.

Financials remain the best performers, but they have seen their recent strength dwindle to a 0.3% gain.

At the other end of the spectrum is the utilities sector, which is down 1.1%.

Early movers: Trading up -- RDN +83.1%, AIG +62.7%, CATM +51%, AXL +43.7%, DFR +37%, MOSY +34.9%, CIT-C +34.1%, WUHN +32%, UQM +31.3%, AHR-C +26.8%, SCLN +26.7%, BKI +26%, HIL +25%, ETM +24.1%, GRMN +23.8%, RCON +23.4%, OWW +23.3%, CNXT +21.9%, MTG +19.9%, TTES +19.9%, CBL +19.8%, MSON +19.2%, PMI +19%, UAUA +18.4%, SOLR +18.1%, BPOPP +17.7%, TNS +17.2%, LL +17%, LOJN +16.9%, NFP +16.8%, KND +16.5%, INO +15.8%, HW +15.7%, BX +15.7%, WFMI +15.6%, FWLT +15.6%; Trading down -- BBND -21.8%, BNE -16.9%, AOB -16.7%, DM -16.5%, ACAS -16.3%, DIVX -15.8%, CLMT -15.4%, IDIX -15.2%, ONXX -14.7%, LYTS -14.5%, DORM -14%, LQDT -13.9%, AMRI -13.1%, DRV -12.1%, EXM -11.8%, ATSG -11.5%, WTU -11.4%, MRCY -11.3%, ASCA -11.1%DJ30 -1.28 NASDAQ -9.36 SP500 -2.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 923/406 mln/1359 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1234/244 mln/1459

09:40 am : The major indices are making modest gains in the first few minutes of trading. However, financials are out to a strong lead, once again.

The financial sector is sporting a 1.5% gain as diversified banks climb 2.1% and multiline insurers jump 5.5%.

Though financials are looking strong, retailers are making even better gains. Retailers, as a group, are up 2.4% following the latest batch of same-store sales results. Though the results from retailers weren't that great, Gap (GPS 18.10, +1.33), Kohl's (KSS 50.36, +0.85), and Macy's (M 15.59, +1.37) all issued upside guidance.DJ30 +26.75 NASDAQ +4.91 SP500 +3.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/192 mln/858 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1767/143 mln/802

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Stocks look as if they are going to start the session slightly higher, though futures have pulled back a bit. The relatively positive tone is being supported by strong gains in overseas markets and news that the latest batch of initial jobless claims wasn't as bad as expected, which lends itself to the suggestion that economic conditions are turning the corner, even though continuing claims clicked higher and remain at uncomfortable levels. This morning's buying will recoup the modest losses incurred in the previous session and is reflective of the bid that has kept stocks trading with an upward momentum in recent weeks. In turn, the stock market is up 1.5% this week and making its way toward a four-week gain of more than 14%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. U.S. stock futures point to modestly higher start, but European stocks are already on their way toward logging strong gains. The Bank of England made a surprise decision to expand its bond purchase program while leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. For the second straight day, bank stocks are providing leadership to Britain's FTSE, which is up 1.6%. HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds Banking (LYG) are the primary leaders. Meanwhile, BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RTP) are mixed amid reports from Reuters that the two are set to report sharp falls in first-half profits. Financial outfits are also supporting France's CAC, which is up 1.3%. Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Axa (AXA) are currently providing the most leadership. In Germany, the DAX is up 1.1% with Commerzbank providing support after posting quarterly earnings that topped expectations. Deutsche Bank (DB) is also sporting gains. According to The Wall Street Journal, German manufacturing orders in June climbed a better than expected 4.5%. Gains were also made in Asia, where the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.6% higher and Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.3%. Automakers saw strength with Honda (HMC), Toyota Motor (TM), and Nissan (NSANY) all advancing. Nikon tumbled after it warned that its operating loss would be more than double its initial estimate. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng spiked 2.0% amid strong buying in China Mobile (CHL), which is thought to be a candidate for listing in Shanghai. China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA) both vaulted. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite faltered, though. It shed 2.1%. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China both fell.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Stock futures have made a modest improvement in the wake of the latest jobless claims figures, which showed that 550,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ending August 1. The consensus called for 580,000 claims following the previous week's 588,000 claims, which was actually revised up from 584,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims came in at 6.31 million, which is above the 6.25 million continuing claims that were widely expected and up from the previous week. The previous week's continuing claims total was revised higher to 6.24 million from a near 6.20 million. The latest batch of claims data comes just one day ahead of the government's official July Nonfarm Payrolls Report.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50. Participants have plenty to take into account this morning as the latest round of earnings announcements hit news wires and retailers report their latest monthly same-store sales results. Specifically, Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported last evening better-than-expected earnings of $0.31 per share, but the stock is down more than 2% to roughly $21.70 per share ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, same-store sales continue to dip, but thus far the degree of decline for many retailers has generally been close to expectations. As for data, weekly jobless claims are due at the bottom of the hour. Stock futures currently point to a flat-to-upward start for the session.

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30.

06:28 am : Nikkei...10388.09...+135.60...+1.30%. Hang Seng...20899.24...+404.50...+2.00%.

06:28 am : FTSE...4681.49...+34.40...+0.70%. DAX...5380.30...+27.30...+0.50%.

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