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 Post subject: August 4th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES points +10.25
PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:04 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=264

Lack of patience and some fear allowed for a losing streak to occur out of the gate. Didn't get into a good trading ryhthm until late in the trading session when a trade signal from the APAOR saved my butt along with preventing the trading day from resulting in a loss.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or your own trading.

In addition, below contains specific information about my trade methodology that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

My Trading Performance: +10.25 Emini ES points

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Stocks Gain After A Struggle
Dow and S&P 500 rise to new 9-month highs as market gets a lift from housing report.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 4, 2009: 4:12 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended a choppy session higher Tuesday, as a better-than-expected housing market report helped investors extend the recent rally, leaving Wall Street at more than nine-month highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 33 points, or 0.4%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 3 points, or 0.3%. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended at the highest point since November.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 3 points, or 0.1%, ending at a 10-month high.

Wall Street rallied Monday, starting off August on solid footing after the best July for the Dow and S&P 500 in two decades. Gains were driven by relief that the quarterly profit reports were generally better than expected and hopes that the economy is stabilizing.

After such a run, stocks were vulnerable to a pullback, said Alan Lancz, director of Lancz Global. He said worries about Friday's jobs report could provide a catalyst for some selling. But beyond that, stocks are likely to keep moving higher for most of the summer.

"There are still so many people on the sidelines who bailed out in March," he said, referring to the 2009 market lows, when the S&P 500 hit 1997 levels.

"With improving economic numbers and some of the stimulus efforts starting to work, you have investors who feel like they are missing the train jumping in," he said. "That's likely to continue."

Economy: The day's economic news was mixed, with a housing report showing improvement and a consumer income and spending report showing weakness.

The pending home sales index, from the National Association of Realtors, rose 3.6% in June versus forecasts for a rise of 0.7%. It was the fifth straight month of gain, the first time that's happened since 2003. Pending home sales rose a revised 0.8% in the previous month.

Personal income fell 1.3% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday morning. That was worse than the 1% decline economists were expecting, according to a Briefing.com survey, and much worse than the previous month, when income surged on government stimulus efforts. Personal spending rose 0.4% in June, after a 0.1% increase in May. Economists thought it would rise 0.3%.

A separate report showed consumer bankruptcies soared 34% to a more than 3-1/2 year high versus a year ago, according to a report from the American Bankruptcy Institute.

Autos: One day after U.S. automakers reported July auto sales that improved from June levels, Toyota Motor (TM) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and said it expects smaller losses for the full year.

Automakers were able to report improved July auto sales largely due to Cash for Clunkers, the popular U.S. government program that provides a financial incentive for turning in a gas guzzler and buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle. The program is in danger of running out of money unless the Senate approves more funding.

Other company news: Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) reported a fiscal third-quarter loss that was narrower than what analysts were expecting.

Swiss bank UBS (UBS) reported a big quarterly loss that was worse than what analysts were expecting, as wealthy clients took a step back amid an ongoing tax dispute with the United States.

Among other movers, Dow component Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) rallied 5% after the company's CEO reaffirmed the company's 2009 profit forecast, according to reports. He also outlined different scenarios for how the company might perform next year based on how long the recession stretches on.

In deals news, PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500) said it will buy its bottlers in a cash-and-stock deal worth $7.8 billion, improving on an earlier $6 billion bid. Shares gained 4.6%.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 67 cents to $70.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have been climbing of late on bets that a global economic recovery will increase demand for raw materials.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $10.90 to $969.70 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.69% from 3.63% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets ended lower and Asian markets ended mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers eight to seven on volume of 780 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by a slim margin on volume of 1.55 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A surprisingly strong increase in pending home sales and considerable strength in the financial sector struggled to prop up stocks and keep choppy trading at bay, but a late move by buyers made for a strong finish.

Stocks started the session in negative territory as participants were left largely unimpressed by the latest batch of earnings announcements, which didn't contain any real market movers. News that June personal income fell a larger-than-expected 1.3% and June spending made a generally in-line 0.4% increase also failed to stir action.

However, a much better-than-expected monthly increase of 3.6% for June pending home sales bounced stocks off of morning lows. The move proved unsustainable, but financials emerged to provide support to the broader market.

Financials stocks were down more than 1% in the early going, but rebounded to settle with an 2.1% gain, just shy of their session high. There wasn't any particular catalyst to account for the sharp reversal from red to green other than momentum buying. That momentum helped carry the major indices into positive territory midsession.

Despite leadership from the financial sector, the broader market was unable to break free from its fit of choppiness. Still, the apparent instability couldn't disrupt a strong advance into the close that gave stocks their fourth straight advance.

The stock market's latest winning streak has only added to an already impressive run that has stocks up nearly 15% in just over three weeks. Such a strong move has many calling for a pullback, but buyers remain in control.

Amid an increased willingness to move into stocks and take on risk, small-caps in the Russell 2000 and mid-caps in the S&P 400 outperformed the headline indices this session. Small- and mid-caps tacked on 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Treasuries fell out of favor after starting the session in higher ground. The benchmark 10-year Note shed some 12 ticks, which pushed its yield back toward 3.7%. The yield had been above 3.7% midway through the session.DJ30 +33.63 NASDAQ +2.70 NQ100 +0.0% R2K +0.9% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/2.27 bln/1153 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/1.25 bln/1168

3:30 pm : The equity markets are chopping around the unchanged level. The energy and materials sectors are lagging the broader market, down 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. These sectors were the hardest hit during the mid-session pull back.

Crude oil and natural gas futures both opened the pit trade moderately lower. Both futures prices were able to briefly climb back into positive territory in the late morning. However, moderate strength in the dollar and a roll-over in the equity markets sent energy futures prices lower once again. The September crude oil futures finished 0.3% lower at $71.40 per barrel and September natural gas futures finished 1.0% lower at $3.99 per contract.

Precious metals were bid higher throughout the session. Gold and silver futures hit session highs of $972.70 per ounce and $14.77 per ounce, respectively, before they pulled back slightly near the end of the pit trade. Still, December gold was able to finish 1.1% higher at $969.70 per ounce and September silver was able to finish 3.0% higher at $14.97 per ounce.DJ30 -1.36 NASDAQ -5.89 SP500 -0.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/1.86 bln/1269 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/900 mln/1304

3:00 pm : Though the financial sector is up 1.7%, the broader market appears to be less willing than it was earlier to follow financials higher. That has stocks lacking direction as this session's final hour of trading arrives. DJ30 -1.89 NASDAQ -6.15 SP500 -1.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1412/1.72 bln/1247 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/828 mln/1324

2:30 pm : Stocks are attempting to recover after a recent backslide. That has the Dow back in positive territory, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still moderately lower.

Financials remain a key point of strength for the broader market. They are up 1.9%.

The consumer discretionary sector, consumer staples sector, and industrials sector are the only other sectors in the green; each is up just 0.1%.DJ30 +6.88 NASDAQ -4.21 SP500 -0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1412/1.58 bln/1232 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/769 mln/1291

2:00 pm : Stocks are rolling over after a steady, downward drift that began earlier this afternoon. In turn, all three headline indices are back in negative ground.

Small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks are still sporting solid gains, though. As such, the Russell 2000 is up 0.5% and the S&P 400 is up 0.4%.

Separately, oil prices are under pressure. Crude oil futures contract prices had made their way to positive territory after starting the session in the red, but they are now contending with a 1.2% loss to trade at $70.70 per barrel.DJ30 -2.26 NASDAQ -5.04 SP500 -1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/1.44 bln/1247 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/710 mln/1348

1:30 pm : Earnings announcements haven't played much of a role for the broader market this session. That could be a recurring trend in coming days, since many market movers and industry bellwethers already reported quarterly results in recent weeks.

Nonetheless, Briefing.com will cover quarterly announcements from approximately 100 companies this evening. Electric Arts (ERTS 22.10, +0.55) and Kraft (KFT 28.23, +0.03) are a couple of the more widely-held companies scheduled to report.

With earnings announcements relegated to secondary status this session, stocks have been making a modest advance on a bit of momentum buying. However, stocks are starting to hand back a portion of those gains.DJ30 +20.94 NASDAQ +3.87 SP500 +2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/1.31 bln/1074 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1887/644 mln/1083

1:00 pm : Despite strength in the financial sector, overall action has been rather underwhelming as the broader market chops along in low volume. Still, the stock market has managed to reverse their opening losses to trade with modest gains.

Financials were down more than 1% at their session low, but have since rebounded to sport a 2.4% gain amid strength in banking stocks. Financials make up the best performing sector in the S&P 500.

The move comes amid residual buying momentum, which has provided a boon for the broader market following fading enthusiasm for a surprisingly strong 3.6% month-over-month jump in June pending home sales. Personal income and spending data for June didn't have much of an impact on trading. The data, which showed a larger-than-expected 1.3% drop in income and a largely in-line 0.4% increase in spending, was released ahead of the opening bell.

While buyers remain in control, many market watchers continue to call for a pullback. That notion is supported by the fact that roughly 90% of S&P 500 issues are trading above their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages, which is extreme difficult to maintain.

Utilities stocks are trading with the largest losses of any major sector. They are down 1.1% as a group even though Duke Energy (DUK 15.50, -0.07) posted better-than-expected earnings.

The materials sector is performing in-line with the broader market after showing leadership in the previous session. Materials stocks spiked 3.5% Monday, but are up a much more modest 0.5% this session.

Contrasting the improvement by stocks in the broader market, Treasuries have reversed course to trade with a meaningful loss. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down 22 ticks, which has lifted its yield back above 3.7%.DJ30 +33.03 NASDAQ +6.83 SP500 +4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1529/1.22 bln/1069 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/598 mln/1042

12:30 pm : The financial sector continues to extend its gains. It is now up 2.3%. Consumer staples stocks make up the next best performing sector, but they are up just 0.6%.

Airlines stocks are seeing some of the best gains of any industry this session, however. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is up a robust 5.6%. DJ30 +23.21 NASDAQ +1.48 SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1423/1.09 bln/1143 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1831/540 mln/1101

12:00 pm : All three major indices are now in positive territory after starting the session with broad-based losses. Overall gains are still muted, though.

Contrasting the upturn by equities, Treasuries have reversed course to trade with a meaningful loss. After showing strength in the early going, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 14 ticks, which has lifted its yield to almost 3.7%.DJ30 +14.89 NASDAQ +0.53 SP500 +1.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1374/962 mln/1171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/468 mln/1197

11:30 am : The S&P 500 and the Dow are dancing along the unchanged mark and the Nasdaq is working to catch up. The stock market's advance out of negative territory has been led by the financial sector, which is now up an enviable 1.2%.

Still, consumer discretionary stocks (+0.1%) and industrial stocks (+0.1%) have joined the financial sector and the consumer staples sector (+0.5%) in higher ground.

The utilities sector is trading with considerable weakness. It is down 1.2% as electric utilities falter despite better-than-expected earnings from Duke Energy (DUK 15.50, -0.07).DJ30 -0.15 NASDAQ -2.91 SP500 -0.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/830 mln/1205 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/406 mln/1287

11:00 am : The major indices recently made a pullback after spiking in the wake of some better-than-expected economic data, but they have since rebounded to come within close range of earlier highs for the session. In turn, the Dow is flirting with positive territory.

Financials have emerged to trade with strength. The sector is now up 0.4% as diversified banks (+1.2%) continue to garner support. Regional banks have managed to pare their losses and now trade with a modest 0.1% loss.

Strength among bank issues has made a modest gain for the Financial Select SPDR Fund (XLF 13.38, +0.04). Its top three holdings consist of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.79, +0.19), Wells Fargo (WFC 26.08, +0.28), and Goldman Sachs (GS 164.87, +0.77).DJ30 -0.37 NASDAQ -4.68 SP500 -1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1193/674 mln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/326 mln/1445

10:35 am : Equity markets opened lower this morning and are currenly trading just above session lows.

September crude oil traded in negative territory overnight and remains there in recent trading activity. Crude hit lows just before the open of pit trading of $70.16 per barrel and attempted to rally, bouncing around 1.7% higher to $71.36 per barrel. Currently, crude has given back some of those gains and is currently 1% lower at $70.86 per barrel.

September natural gas is also trading in negative territory from overnight. Natural gas hit lows of $3.868 around 40 minutes after the open of pit trading and is currently trading about 2.5% lower at $3.931.

The dollar has declined off morning highs and is trading closer to the unchanged line.

December gold and September silver opened in negative territory, but pushed higher in morning trade, hitting highs of $963.60 per ounce and $14.555 per ounce, respectively. In currently trading, gold is 2.9% higher at $961.60 per ounce, while silver is 0.8% higher at $14.515 per ounce.DJ30 -21.36 NASDAQ -8.28 SP500 -4.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1051/522.9 mln/1356 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/255.0 mln/1621

10:00 am : Stocks are jumping on news that pending home sales for June climbed 3.6% month-over-month. That exceeded the 0.7% increase that was widely expected and was also the fifth straight monthly increase.

Still, consumer staples stocks make up the only sector to trade with a gain. They are now up 0.6%.

Early Movers: Trading up -- NPO +15.4%, GGC +12.4%, CVGI +12%, TRW +12%, KNOL +11.9%, LF +10.9%, EXBD +10.7%, IEC +10.4%, TAST +10.3%, NADX +10%, HSTM +9.8%, HURN +9.4%, CRAY +9%, CTSH +8.7%, SVVS +8.5%, PAS +7.5%, PBG +7.4%, TLB +7.3%; Trading down -- LCAV -12.6%, PTRY -12.4%, IPHS -11%, AGEN -10.1%, HLF -9.7%, IRE -9.6%, PPL -9.5%, ACOR -8%, ARM -7.7%, ATML -7.6%, UBS -7.6%, LAMR -7.5%, KFN -7.4%, SFY -7.2%DJ30 -0.30 NASDAQ -8.25 SP500 -2.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1009/297 mln/1274 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1142/169 mln/1543

09:45 am : Stocks are down in the first few minutes of trading, but declines are relatively contained as the nine major sectors that are trading with losses in the S&P 500 are down by 1% or less.

The materials sector is seeing the most pressure after leading with a 3.5% gain in the prior session. Materials stocks are currently down 1.0%.

Consumer staples stocks make up the only major sector to trade with a gain. Thanks to leadership from PepsiCo (PEP 57.60, +1.40), which confirmed merger agreements with Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG 35.92, +2.30) and Pepsi Americas (PAS 28.02, +1.87), the consumer staples sector is up 0.4%.DJ30 -19.12 NASDAQ -8.31 SP500 -4.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 746/183 mln/1446 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 863/108 mln/1742

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. Stock futures have generally held steady in negative territory. The scope of their weakness suggests a lower start for each of the major indices. There hasn't been any single or clear catalyst for the downward bias. However, the S&P 500 has advanced nearly 3% during the past three sessions and last night closed above 1000 for the first time since November, so many participants are looking to take some profits as the stock market contends with this psychologically significant mark.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.50. U.S. stock futures are holding steady in negative territory. Stocks are also under pressure in Europe, where the DAX is down 0.8%. Diversified chemicals outfit BASF and engineering giant Siemens (SI) are leading losses. In France, the CAC is down 0.7% amid weakness in energy outfit Total (TOT). ArcelorMittal (MT) is also trading as a laggard after Xstrata reported a drop in profits and said it still seeks a merger of equals with Anglo American (AAUK). BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto (RTP) are undercutting Britain's FTSE, which is down 1.0%. In economic data, The Wall Street Journal reported that Euro-zone producer prices made a monthly advance for the first time since July 2008. Producer prices climbed 0.3% in June, though they declined 6.6% from a year earlier. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index tacked on 0.2%, as did Japan's Nikkei. Suzuki Motor slid after posting an 80% drop in quarterly operating profits. Panasonic (PC) edged up in the wake of reporting a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and lifting its half-year outlook. After the close, Toyota Motor (TM) reported its third straight quarterly loss, but lifted its forecast to call for a smaller loss this year. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.1%. Repeated gains from HSBC (HBC) were outweighed by losses in mainland bank stocks. Hang Seng Bank, which is majority owned by HSBC, fell after posting a 29% fall in first-half net profit and warned that its net interest margin would continue to come under pressure. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.3% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Personal income for June fell 1.3%, which is a sharper decline than the 1.0% decline that economists had come to expect. Meanwhile, data for May was revised lower to reflect a 1.3% increase. As for personal spending, it increased 0.4% in June. The consensus called for a 0.3% increase, which was what had been originally reported for May. However, May's data was revised downward to reflect a 0.1% increase. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for June increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. That followed a 0.1% increase in May. Year-over-year, core PCE was up 1.5%, but that wasn't quite as strong as the 1.7% increase that was widely expected. It was slightly below the downwardly revised 1.6% year-over-year increase that was registered in May, too. Lastly, the PCE Deflator declined 0.4% year-over-year. It was expected to increase 0.2%. Downwardly revised data for May showed a 0.3% decline. Stock futures have generally been unaffected by the data.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30. Stock futures suggest participants are willing to hand back a portion of the gains that were registered in the past few sessions. That's of little surprise since headlines have generally been uninspiring this morning. Broad-based declines in Europe and relatively unimpressive action in Asia are also putting a damper on premarket trading. Participants will get some additional trading cues when personal income and spending data for June is released at the bottom of the hour. Pending home sales for June are due later this morning (10:00 AM ET).

06:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00.

06:15 am : Nikkei...10375.01...+22.50...+0.20%. Hang Seng...20796.43...-10.80...-0.10%.

06:15 am : FTSE...4652.01...-30.50...-0.70%. DAX...5385.07...-41.80...-0.80%.

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