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 Post subject: August 3rd Monday 2009 Emini ES points +23.25
PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:29 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=263

As usual, a big gap from yesterday's close to today's open takes removes a lot of the volatility or makes trading more difficult as I try to identify my WRB s/r zones along with waiting for pattern signals to appear.

Had a few good trades in the morning but didn't feel comfortable witht he price action until late in the trading day and that's when I had some good trades even though I had lowered my position size.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or your own trading.

In addition, below contains specific information about my trade methodology that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

My Trading Performance: +23.25 Emini ES points

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Stocks Kick Off August With A Rally
Economic reports, auto sales and corporate earnings push the Dow and S&P 500 to 9-month highs, the Nasdaq to a 10-month peak.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 3, 2009: 4:15 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks, coming off the best July in two decades, got a strong August start Monday after better-than-expected readings on manufacturing and car sales added to bets that the economy is starting to stabilize.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 115 points, or 1.3%, according to early tallies, touching a more than 9-month high.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 15 points, or 1.5%, topping the 1,000 level for the first time since last November.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 30 points, or 1.5%, hitting up against a 10-month high.

Stocks are coming off the best July in years, after a spate of better-than-expected quarterly results reassured investors that the economy is getting closer to stabilizing. Last week, the first-quarter GDP report showed the economy shrank at a 1% rate, versus forecasts for a bigger contraction.

In July, the Dow gained 8.6%, its best July since 1989 and its best month overall since October 2002. The S&P 500 gained 7.4%, its best July since 1988 and its best month since April. The Nasdaq rose 7.8% in the month, its best July since 1997 and the best month overall since this past April.

The July advance -- now stretching into August -- has marked something of a second leg of the rally that started in the spring, said Mike Stanfield, chief investment officer at VSR Financial Services.

Between March 9 and June 12, the S&P 500 gained 40%. But for the next four weeks, stocks drifted lower as investors worried that the market had risen too far, too fast. Once the quarterly earnings reports came out better than expected, stocks resumed the climb.

"The continuation of a rally is going to be dependent on leading indicators showing strength," he said, such as Monday's manufacturing report.

Longer term, "I think Asia could lead us out of this worldwide slump," he said. "I think this time around we are not going to be the engines of growth, but we are going to benefit."

He said that the recent rally in oil and gold prices tied into that trend.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June. That was better than the 46.5 economists were expecting, but still short of the 50 level that indicates expansion in the sector.

Construction spending rose 0.3% in June versus forecasts for a decline of 0.5%, according to Briefing.com. Spending fell 0.9% in May.

Autos: Ford Motor reported a gain in July auto sales and other major automakers cut losses, as the government's Cash for Clunkers program helped stimulate sales of cars and trucks.

Ford (F, Fortune 500), the only one of the so-called Big Three automakers that didn't file for bankruptcy protection, said July sales rose 2% versus a year ago. It is the first U.S. automaker to report a rise in monthly sales since November 2007.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Toyota Motor (TM), Chrysler Group and Honda Motor all said sales fell versus a year ago, but rose versus June levels, thanks to Cash for Clunkers.

The popular program gives consumers a rebate check for as much as $4,500 if they trade in their gas guzzlers and buy a fuel-efficient vehicle. But the program could run out of cash by mid-week if the Senate doesn't approve the additional $2 billion in funding the House of Representatives approved last week.

Quarterly results: With two-thirds of the S&P 500 having reported results, profits are on track to have fallen 29.5% from a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Reuters numbers. However, that's an improvement from a month ago, when profits were expected to fall more than 35%.

Profit reports have been topping expectations across the board, with roughly 74% of companies exceeding forecasts, versus the long-term average of 61% of companies. Should the figure hold up through the end of the reporting period, it would be the highest percentage of companies topping estimates in the 15 years Thomson Reuters has been tracking results.

On Monday, Humana (HUM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates. Shares of the health insurance provider rose 4%.

Marathon Oil (MRO, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings on lower oil prices. Nonetheless, results topped estimates. Shares gained 2.6%.

Other company news: Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) CEO Eric Schmidt has resigned from the Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) board, as the Internet search leader is developing more and more products that compete with Apple's core businesses. Google gained 2%, while Apple gained 1.5%.

Bank of America has agreed to pay $33 million to settle charges that it mislead investors about Merrill Lynch's plans to pay bonuses to its executives. Bank of America completed its purchase of Merrill Lynch on Jan. 1.

Separately, BofA said Sallie Krawcheck, Citigroup's former head of global wealth management, will run BofA's global wealth and investment management operations.

Oil and gold: Commodity prices rallied as investors bet that a global recovery will boost demand for raw materials.

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.13 to settle at $71.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $2.90 to settle at $958.70 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled as investors pulled money out of the safe-haven commodity. The slump raised the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.63% from 3.48% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets rallied after Barclays reported a rise in quarterly profit and HSBC reported a drop in profit that wasn't as steep as analysts had expected. Asian markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and rose against the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers four to one on volume of 890 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by two to one on volume of 1.82 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Better-than-expected economic data helped to bring about broad-based buying, which took the S&P 500 to fresh highs for the year and helped it close above the psychologically significant 1000 mark for the first time since November.

The ISM Manufacturing Index made its seventh straight increase by coming in at 48.9 for June. While the sub-50 reading still connotes contraction in the manufacturing sector, the reading was still better than what had been expected.

Construction spending data for June made a surprise 0.3% increase. It was expected to fall 0.5%. The data was released at the same time as the ISM, so the pair of pleasing reports helped to fend off an early challenge from sellers, who had actually halved the stock market's opening gains.

Emboldened buyers helped to prop up the broader market, but materials stocks provided the most leadership and saw the richest gains. The sector's 3.5% advance was helped along by a sharp rise in steel stocks (+6.5%) and diversified metals and mining stocks (+8.0%).

Sharply higher commodity prices provided a catalyst for the run by basic materials stocks. The CRB Commodity Index spiked 3.4% and is now up more than 9% during the course of the past three sessions. A weaker dollar helped the case for commodities.

Oil prices jumped 3.0% to $71.53 per barrel. That's the highest price for oil in one month. Energy stocks responded by jumping 2.3%.

Financial stocks also saw solid buying interest. They finished 2.7% higher and were early leaders in the broader market, thanks to encouraging midyear reports from Barclays (BCS 22.15, +1.61) and HSBC (HBC 54.50, +3.80). Both banks provided leadership to the European bourses.

Earnings announcements didn't have much of an impact on trading this session, mostly because many bellwethers have already reported. Nonetheless, Humana (HUM 33.76, +0.91) reported an upside earnings surprise, but that wasn't enough to lift other managed care providers (-0.6%).

In other corporate news, Ford (F 8.33, +0.33) reported its first uptick in monthly sales results since 2007 by registering a 2.3% increase in June.

Treasuries were under pressure for the entire session. The benchmark 10-year Note shed more than a full point to put its yield above 3.6%.DJ30 +114.95 NASDAQ +30.11 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +1.6% SP400 +2.1% SP500 +15.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/2.17 bln/791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2542/1.21 bln/522

3:30 pm : Broad-based bullish sentiment has helped drive commodity prices, along with equities, higher this session.

Strength in this session's broad-based gains stem primarily from the materials sector which is currently up 3.4%. Notably, energy stocks are also up 2.4%. Higher commodity prices are helping make these moves possible; the CRB Commodity Index is currently up 3.4%. A weak dollar is intensifying their strength. The dollar index is now trading 0.9% lower.

September natural gas futures realized the biggest move higher this session. The contracts opened the pit trade significantly higher and carried their momentum throughout the session to close 10.8% higher at $4.01 per contract.

Crude oil also contributed to strength in energy. September crude oil futures closed 3.0% higher at $71.53 per barrel.

Precious metals also ended this session higher. Both gold and silver futures traded lower near the end of the pit trade, however. December gold futures closed up 0.3% higher at $958.80 per ounce as September silver finished with a more impressive 2.2% gain to close at $14.25 per ounce.DJ30 +115.33 NASDAQ +26.42 SP500 +14.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/1.82 bln/863 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2512/888 mln/537

3:00 pm : Only one hour is left in the trading session and the stock market is on its way toward logging its third straight gain.

Materials stocks (+3.3%) continue to provide some of the most leadership, but overall gains remain broad-based.

As such, financials are sporting solid gains. The sector is up 2.3% amid strength in shares of diversified banks (+4.0%). Though shares of many major banks and financial players are advancing, Citigroup (C 3.15, -0.02) is lagging. The stock reached its session highs in the early going, but has descended throughout the session to trade with a loss. Its shares are among the most actively by volume traded this session.DJ30 +105.96 NASDAQ +25.48 SP500 +13.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1785/1.69 bln/871 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2485/823 mln/546

2:30 pm : All three major indices have ascended to fresh session highs. The levels also coordinate with fresh 2009 highs for the Dow and S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is still a few points behind its 2009 highs, which were reached last Thursday.

Gains this session remain broad-based. Even telecom, which had been a laggard for the first part of the session, is now in positive territory and trading with a 0.1% gain. That means all 10 major sectors are in the green.DJ30 +116.31 NASDAQ +26.91 SP500 +15.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/1.57 bln/836 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2515/759 mln/509

2:00 pm : Briefing.com will cover earnings announcements from roughly 50 companies this evening, but there aren't any real market movers in the bunch. And though there are a few widely-held companies scheduled for the coming days, the overall number of industry bellwethers is down from recent weeks. That brings data back into focus for many market participants.

Investors already got the latest construction spending data and the June ISM Manufacturing Index this morning. Personal spending data and pending home sales data for June are due tomorrow. The ADP Employment Change Report for July is due Wednesday. Thursday marks the weekly release of initial jobless claims data. Friday brings the release of what will be a widely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls Report for July.DJ30 +99.16 NASDAQ +23.59 SP500 +13.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1786/1.45 bln/859 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2455/702 mln/564

1:05 pm : The S&P 500 made its way above 1000 for the first time since November following a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index reading for July and a surprise uptick in construction spending for June. Stocks have since pulled back a bit, but gains remain strong and broad-based.

Materials stocks make up the best performing sector this session. They are up 3.1%, thanks largely to higher commodity prices, which have been bolstered by a dropping U.S. dollar. With the Dollar Index down 1.0% this session, the CRB Commodity Index is up 2.9%.

A weaker dollar has also helped oil prices climb back above the $71 mark for the first time in one month. Crude oil futures contracts were last pricing oil at $71.50 per barrel, up 2.9%. That has the energy sector up 2.5%.

Financial stocks provided some initial support to the broader market amid news that Barclays (BCS 22.17, +1.63) saw its first half profit spike and strong results from global banking and markets operations offset weakness at HSBC (HBC 54.63, +3.93).

Shares of Bank of America (BAC 15.37, +0.58) recently came under pressure following news that the company is facing charges by the SEC that the bank made false statements regarding its purchase of Merrill Lynch.

In other corporate news, Ford (F 8.56, +0.56) said its sales for July increased 2.3%, which is the first increase since 2007.

There weren't an awful lot of earnings announcements made this morning, but Humana (HUM 34.12, +1.27) and Clorox (CLX 59.16, -1.85) both reported upside surprises. Their reports haven't won much support for the health care sector (+0.1%) or the consumer staples sector (+0.1%), though.DJ30 +95.33 NASDAQ +21.60 SP500 +12.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1734/1.29 bln/861 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2398/621 mln/591

12:30 pm : The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock Index is up 0.8% this session, but is lagging the other major indices. Its gains are being undercut by considerable weakness in shares of Huron Consulting (HURN 14.22, -30.13).

Huron announced late last week its intention to restate financial statements and make management changes. The company also issued downside guidance. A raft of analysts responded this morning by issuing downgrades.

Shares of HURN are at an all-time low.DJ30 +85.86 NASDAQ +21.41 SP500 +12.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1712/1.17 bln/881 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2366/555 mln/600

12:00 pm : Commodities prices continue to garner support amid a weaker U.S. dollar. That has the CRB Commodity Index up a sharp 2.8% this session and up more than 8.5% during the course of the past three sessions. The latter marks the best three-session percentage gain for the CRB since the beginning of January.

With core commodity prices up, materials stocks are enticing investors. Materials stocks are now up 3.1% this session, more than any other major sector. Materials stocks are up more than 7% during the past three sessions, while the broader market has gained roughly 2.5% in the past three sessions.DJ30 +87.67 NASDAQ +20.43 SP500 +11.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1657/1.07 bln/902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2317/503 mln/636

11:30 am : Action has become a bit sloppy as the major averages drift off of their session highs. Solid, broad-based gains remain, though.

Treasuries have been under considerable pressure for the entire session. That has the benchmark 10-year Note down more than a full point. In turn, its yield is up above 3.6%.

The U.S. dollar is also contending with stiff selling pressure. As such, the Dollar Index is down 1.0%.DJ30 +74.45 NASDAQ +12.47 SP500 +8.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/929 mln/979 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2249/449 mln/671

11:00 am : The morning rebound that followed better-than-expected ISM and construction spending data helped take the S&P 500 above 1000 for the first time since November, but stocks are now working to fend off some renewed selling pressure.

Defensive-oriented stocks are seeing the most selling pressure. In turn, the health care sector is currently down 0.4%, while the telecom sector is down 0.3%. Consumer staples stocks, as a group, are down 0.1%.

July sales results for Ford (F 8.56, +0.56) were just released. Company sales were up 2.3%, which marks the first increase since 2007. DJ30 +83.21 NASDAQ +15.84 SP500 +10.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1576/774 mln/922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2242/379 mln/651

10:30 am : Commodity stocks are trading higher this morning following a higher open in the equity markets and as the dollar continues to trend lower. In recent trading activity, the dollar hit fresh morning lows.

September crude oil broke $71 earlier this morning and hit new highs again in recent trading of $71.82 per barrel. Currently, crude is just off morning highs and is 3.1% higher at $71.60 per barrel.

Natural gas moved into positive territory a few hours before pit trading began and continues trading there this morning. Natural gas briefly spiked to highs of $4.162, but that was short-lived as it is currently trading 8% higher at $3.957.

The weak dollar continues to add price support to precious metals, which are trading near session highs currently. December gold is 0.7% higher at $962.90 per ounce, while silver is trading 3% higher at $14.415 per ounce. DJ30 +86.08 NASDAQ +16.20 SP500 +11.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/579.9 mln/933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2212/291.9 mln/622

10:00 am : The stock market recently saw its morning gains cut in half, but it is now making retracing part of the downturn.

The recent upturn comes amid news that the ISM Manufacturing Index for July came in at 48.9, up from 44.8 and above the 46.5 that was widely expected. The ISM has yet to show an increase in overall manufacturing activity by coming in above 50 this year, though.

Construction spending for June made a surprise 0.3% increase, which was better than the 0.5% decline that had been expected. Data for May was revised lower to reflect a 0.9% decline.

Materials stocks are now the clear front runner. The sector is up 2.6% with steel stocks (+3.9%) still providing leadership.DJ30 +57.67 NASDAQ +15.05 SP500 +8.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/403 mln/919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2101/214 mln/690

09:45 am : Stocks are in the green, but their gains are being pared quickly as the major indices go on the backslide. Still, financial issues (+1.7%), energy stocks (+1.5%), and materials stocks (+1.7%) are up handsomely.

The advance by financials follows encouraging quarterly reports from Barclays (BCS 21.66, +1.12) and HSBC (HBC 53.78, +3.08). Both outfits also supported buying in the major European bourses.

As for the energy sector, its gains follow a near 3% advance by oil prices. Oil is currently trading hands near $71.50 per barrel.

Steel stocks are providing leadership to the materials sector. Showcasing the industry's strength is a near 4% bounce by the Market Vectors Steel Index Fund (SLX 47.72, +1.74)DJ30 +45.88 NASDAQ +12.02 SP500 +6.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1418/245 mln/881 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/146 mln/688

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. Stocks are showing strength ahead of the opening bell. While broad U.S. stock futures are garnering considerable support, some of the strongest premarket moves are being made by bank stocks following news that Barclays (BCS) first-half net profit ballooned with help from its investment-banking unit. The same news has helped prop up shares in the major European markets. Though Ford (F) has yet to release its actual sales results for July, reports indicate the company will unveil its first year-over-year increase since late 2007. The pace of earnings announcements has slowed this morning, but participants are still digesting them with earnest. In the latest flurry Humana (HUM) and Clorox (CLX) reported upside earnings surprises, but Loews Corp (L) and MGM (MGM) both disappointed. Participants await the latest batch of economic data, which consists of the July ISM Manufacturing Index and June construction spending data. The pair of reports is due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. Stocks continue to attract support ahead of the opening bell, though they are off of their morning highs. Their strength comes ahead of a pair of economic reports, which are due at 10:00 AM ET. The ISM Manufacturing Index for July will likely make the most headlines. It has shown improvement for six months straight, but has yet to show an actual expansion in overall manufacturing activity, which is determined by a reading over 50. That feat was last made in January 2008. Economists aren't expecting expansion any time soon, though. In turn, the consensus estimate for July's reading stands at 46.5. Construction spending data for June is also due at 10:00 AM ET. Economists expect a 0.5% decline after a 0.9% decrease in May. May's decline followed April's 0.6% increase, which was the first increase since March 2008.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.80. The major European stock indices are trading materially higher as bank stocks provide leadership in the wake of the latest numbers from HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS). According to The Wall Street Journal, HSBC's net profit for the first half of the year was more than halved from the previous year. The company's global banking and markets business did see pretax profits more than double for the first half of the year. Meanwhile, Barclays saw a near double-digit increase in first half profits as gains from investment banking offset weakness in other divisions. Both firms are providing leadership to Britain's FTSE, which is up 1.5%. Meanwhile, Deustsche Bank (DB) is a primary leader in Germany, where the DAX is up 1.6%. In France, the CAC is up 1.4%, thanks to strength in BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. Action was a bit mixed on Monday in Asia. Japan's Nikkei finished flat, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.1%. HSBC was also a leader in the Hang Seng.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.80. U.S. stock futures are garnering considerable support in the wake of solid gains in Europe. Among this morning's better performers, Humana (HUM) posted better-than-expected second quarter earnings by bringing in $1.67 per share. Its stock is up more than 4% in premarket action. Ford (F) is up nearly 4% amid reports that indicate the company will report its first monthly sales increase since 2007. There is also news this morning that semiconductor sales increased in the second quarter from the first quarter. However, they are still down from the prior year period. Shares of semiconductor stocks are trading in mixed fashion ahead of the opening bell, though.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.50.

06:36 am : FTSE...4686.03...+77.70...+1.70%. DAX...5423.80...+91.90...+1.70%.

06:35 am : Nikkei...10352.47...-4.40...-0.00. Hang Seng...20807.26...+233.90...+1.10%.

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