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 Post subject: July 17th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 9:17 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was via the prior trading day @ 1416pm est in the S&P 500 Emini ES futures that provided support for today's price action along with setting up Long signals @ 0954am and 1158am est via our APAOR and VTR strategies.

As for my trading today, took it easy because it was an expected range trading day. Instead, most of the trading day with the family. :)

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=248

My Trading Performance: +10.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks: Higher Week, Mixed Day
Dow manages gains Friday, but broader market sputters after four days of advances. Investors eye results from IBM, Bank of America, Citigroup and GE.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 17, 2009: 6:07 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- IBM's improved outlook lifted the Dow industrials Friday, but the broader market struggled as investors showed fatigue after a strong week on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 32 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index ended just below unchanged and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) ended just above the breakeven point.

The major gauges were on both sides of unchanged throughout the session as investors weighed the better-than-expected financial results with some reluctance after the run-up.

Stocks ended higher for the week. It was the Dow and S&P 500's first up week -- and the Nasdaq's second -- in the past five.

"Bank of America was a good surprise this morning and IBM and Google yesterday were pretty strong, but having said that, we are approaching the top of a trading range," said Tommy Williams, president of Williams Financial Advisors.

He said stocks are likely to pull back over the summer, even as the economic news improves. However, after that pullback, stocks should resume the advance.

Williams said that although conditions have not yet gotten better, they have stopped getting worse, and that's a meaningful direction.

Stocks rose Thursday after JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit. JPMorgan joined Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), both of which reported better-than-expected financial results earlier in the week.

Stocks have risen in the first big week of quarterly financial reports, following four down weeks on Wall Street. The broad S&P 500 gained 7% for the week, recovering almost all that it lost in the previous four weeks.

Financials: Dow component Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) reported a profit of 33 cents per share, down from 72 cents a year ago, but five cents more than what analysts were expecting. Shares lost 2%.

Former Dow component Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a second-quarter profit of 49 cents per share, surprising analysts who were looking for a loss of 37 cents, on average. Citigroup lost 55 cents per share a year ago. Shares ended little changed.

CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) bounced 71% Friday on reports that it is in talks with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs as it tries to avoid a bankruptcy filing. Shares fell 71% Thursday after the small business lender said it won't receive a government bailout, raising fears that the company could collapse.

CIT helps fund as many as 1 million small businesses, but a collapse of the company is not seen as a risk to the broad financial system.

IBM: IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings late Thursday that topped estimates on lower revenue that missed forecasts. The tech leader also said full-year earnings would come in at $9.70 per share versus a forecast of $9.20 per share. Shares gained 4% Friday.

IBM is the most influential stock on the Dow because of its size.

Other earnings: Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings late Thursday that topped estimates, largely due to cost cutting. The Internet search leader also reported tepid revenue growth because of slowing ad sales. Shares fell 2.8% Friday.

Dow component General Electric reported earnings of 26 cents per share, versus forecasts for 23 cents per share. GE (GE, Fortune 500) lost 54 cents a year ago. Shares fell 6% Friday.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.29 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers five to four on volume of 1.91 billion shares.

Economy: June housing starts rose to a 582,000 unit annualized rate from a revised 562,000 in May. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought starts would come in at a 530,000 unit annualized rate.

Building permits, which measure builder confidence, rose to a 563,000 unit annualized rate in June versus a revised 518,000 unit rate in May. Economists expected a 524,000 unit rate.

The report was another indication that the economy is closer to stabilizing, something the Federal Reserve alluded to earlier this week.

"It looks to me like we'll be moving from shrinking to growing by the end of the quarter," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re. "The housing number this morning was kind of indicative of that."

He said the building permits number was the best that has been seen all year and that it's a sign that the sector has hit bottom on the construction side.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.64% from 3.57% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and the Japanese yen.

U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose $1.54 to settle at $63.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $2.10 to settle at 937.50 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Better-than-expected earnings from industry majors and economic bellwethers like IBM (IBM 115.42, +4.78), Google (GOOG 430.25, -12.35), Bank of America (BAC 12.89, -0.28), Citigroup (C 3.02, -0.01), and General Electric (GE 11.65, -0.75) couldn't dissuade participants from taking a breather after the stock market's recent run. That led to a fractional loss for the S&P 500, its first in five sessions, but the Dow was able to log its fifth straight gain while the Nasdaq made its eighth straight advance.

Even as participants digested earnings reports from several widely held companies stocks traded listlessly within a narrow trading range of just seven points. However, the sideways action did help the S&P 500 succeed in making its first weekly advance in more than one month. It climbed 7% this week.

Not even options expirations could induce volatility. Expected volatility also remains low, which has the Volatility Index, or VIX, trading below 25, near 10-month lows.

Trading volume didn't really pick up as a result of options expirations, either. Fewer than 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. That's well below the 50-day moving average of 1.3 billion.

Tech was the session's best performing sector. It advanced 1.0% amid follow-through buying. The sector's strength started early this week when a thoroughly impressive report from Intel (INTC 18.79, +0.29) attracted buyers. Many pundits believe that continued strength among tech stocks will provide the leadership necessary to take the broader market higher. The stock market has already climbed to its best level in one month.

On an individual basis, some of this session's best gains were had by CIT Group (CIT 0.70, +0.29), which surged amid reports that the company is in talks to stave off bankruptcy by securing financing with Goldman Sachs (GS 156.84, unch.) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 36.89, +0.76).

Homebuilders (+2.3%) and home improvement retailers (+1.3%) made solid gains of their own amid news that housing starts and building permits data for June came in higher than expected. Still, annualized starts of 582,000 are roughly half of what they were one year ago.

On the other side of things, industrials showed weakness for the entire session. They finished with a 1.5% loss, worse than any other major sector. DJ30 +32.12 NASDAQ +1.58 NQ100 +0.6% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -0.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1097/1.90 bln/1534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1438/916 mln/1499

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index is up a hefty 1.6% in what is becoming its best single-session percentage advance in nearly four weeks. The strong advance comes as commodities garner broad support.

Oil prices saw some of the richest gains in today's pit trade. Crude contracts settled 2.5% higher at $63.56 per barrel. More impressive is that crude prices settled roughly 3% above session lows, which were set in the opening minutes of pit trade.

Natural gas prices also advanced, but the move was fractional. Contracts settled at $3.68 each.

Gold prices also made modest gains. The yellow metal settled at $937.80 per ounce.

Silver had a much stronger session than gold, though. Silver prices settled 1.2% higher at $13.40 per ounce.

The pair of precious metals were able to make their gains in the face of a modestly stronger U.S. dollar, which is currently up just 0.1% against a basket of foreign currencies. DJ30 +12.77 NASDAQ -1.82 SP500 +2.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/1.52 bln/1545 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1411/961 mln/1544

3:00 pm : Heading into the final hour of action, stocks remain in a narrow trading range, which has actually tightened even further in the last 60 minutes. The sideways movement has kept stocks trading in mixed fashion.

The sideways crawl comes amid a lack of news flow and trading catalysts. The pace of action has slowed dramatically since this morning when several industry titans and economic bellwethers posted their latest quarterly results. DJ30 +23.88 NASDAQ +0.03 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1114/1.42 bln/1493 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1456/896 mln/1476

2:30 pm : Despite relative weakness in the U.S., the Dow Jones World Index is up 0.3%. Excluding the U.S., the index is up 0.6%.

Strength in the global index is largely owed to solid gains in Europe and Asia. In France, the CAC logged a 0.6%. Britain's FTSE also finished 0.6% higher. Germany's DAX tacked on 0.4%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng spiked 2.4%.

Separately, volatility expectations are down. In turn, the Volatility Index, or VIX, is down 5.4%.DJ30 +19.95 NASDAQ +0.40 SP500 -0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1092/1.31 bln/1488 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1489/844 mln/1445

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has made its way into positive territory for the first time this session. The ascent has come without any clear, individual leader, though.

There aren't any earnings announcements expected to be released after the closing bell. Participants will get their next installment Monday morning when Haliburton (HAL 21.33, -0.20) and Johnson Controls (JCI 20.01, -0.41) report ahead of the opening bell.DJ30 +33.63 NASDAQ +1.59 SP500 +0.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1098/1.22 bln/1461 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1512/798 mln/1411

1:30 pm : Trading among equities remains mixed. Half of the major sectors in the S&P 500 are trading with gains, which range from a fractional advance by consumer staples to a 0.8% gain by materials.

Treasuries are under pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down 19 ticks, which has its yield back above 3.6%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Bond is down more than a full point and is yielding more than 4.5% as a result.DJ30 +15.64 NASDAQ -2.12 SP500 -1.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1032/1.12 bln/1518 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/752 mln/1502

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 has spent the entire session chopping along in a narrow, five point range with modest losses. The decline is threatening to end the stock market's current four-session streak of gains.

Action within the S&P 500 has been relatively mixed, though, as stocks gyrate between positive and negative territory. Tech, in particular, has struggled to set forth on a clear path. Helped by better-than-expected earnings from the likes of IBM (IBM 114.26, +3.62) and Google (GOOG 427.36, -15.24), the sector has exhibited some follow-through buying; it is currently up 0.3%.

Earnings surprises from Bank of America (BAC 12.89, -0.28) and Citigroup (C 3.04, +0.01) underpinned an early rebound attempt by financial stocks, but sellers have since redoubled their efforts to send the sector to a 1% loss. Financials are still up more than 9% this week, though.

CIT Group (CIT 0.81, +0.40) remains in the headlines as the firm works to stave off bankruptcy. According to CNBC, the company is in talks with Goldman Sachs (GS 156.38, -0.46) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 36.77, +0.64) to secure financing. Shares of CIT have doubled on the news.

Industrials are under the most pressure this session. The sector has lost 1.5% as shares of General Electric (GE 11.65, -0.75) dive following the company's latest quarterly report, which showed solid execution by the company, but it still wasn't of the quality that many wanted.

Led by a rebound in energy prices, commodities are looking strong. Oil prices had been down more than 1%, but are now up 2.7% to $63.70 per barrel. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.7%. Higher basic materials prices and energy prices have pushed the materials sector to a 0.5% gain and the energy sector to a 0.3% gain.

Trading volume is relatively high this session as more than 700 million shares have already traded hands on the NYSE. The pick up in volume is most likely due to the expiration of options at this session's close.DJ30 +2.49 NASDAQ -4.81 SP500 -2.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 966/1.03 bln/1551 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/712 mln/1547

12:30 pm : While the three headline indices, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, continue to grapple with sellers, the Nasdaq 100 has made its way to a fractional gain. The Nasdaq 100's modest advance comes with help from large-cap tech issues like Apple (AAPL 150.19, +2.67) and Qualcomm (QCOM 47.01, +0.29).

Meanwhile, small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks are contending with more sizable losses than those of the three major indices. As such, the Russell 2000 is down 0.7% and the S&P 400 is down 0.4%.DJ30 +0.53 NASDAQ -5.57 SP500 -3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 969/938 mln/1527 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1293/666 mln/1569

12:00 pm : Action remains choppy amid a lack of leadership. Listless trading has also left the S&P 500 in the red for the entire session.

Commodities prices are showing strength, though. Oil prices have actually recovered from early losses to sport a 1.5% gain as they trade at $62.95 per barrel. The rebound in oil prices has helped lift the energy sector to a fractional gain. Meanwhile, the materials sector is up 0.2%.DJ30 -11.94 NASDAQ -7.57 SP500 -4.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 895/840 mln/1567 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1171/614 mln/1670

11:30 am : Financial stocks have fallen markedly, but have managed to pull up a bit from their session lows. The sector is currently down 1.3%. Only industrials (-1.5%) are trading with a steeper loss.

Regional banks are showing particular weakness among financial issues. As a group, regionals are down 5.6%. Regional lender BB&T (BBT 20.60, -1.73) announced its latest quarterly earnings this morning, but its $0.20 per share was short of expectations. The company also had its credit rating lowered by analysts at Fitch.

Meanwhile, CIT Group (CIT 0.56, +0.15) continues working to stave off bankruptcy by looking for ways to improve liquidity. Its effort has won it favor among participants, who have sent the stock soaring.DJ30 -6.43 NASDAQ -8.57 SP500 -4.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 880/753 mln/1548 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1159/571 mln/1672

11:00 am : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to chop along in negative territory. The Dow actually made its way into positive ground, but its stay there was short lived.

Early gains by tech stocks and financial stocks have been totally erased. They are now down 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Consumer staples stocks are showing strength, though. The sector is up 0.1% and is the only one to trade in positive territory. Tobacco is underpinning the move as Reynolds American (RAI 40.99, +0.63), Altria (MO 17.18, +0.19), Lorillard (LO 69.52, +1.09), and Philip Morris (PM 43.90, +0.60) sport enviable gains.DJ30 -10.21 NASDAQ -8.08 SP500 -4.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 885/636 mln/1502 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/509 mln/1618

10:30 am : Despite early morning strength in the dollar, energy and precious metals are trading higher just off early morning highs.

August crude oil reversed off lows minutes before the open of floor trading before spiking ~$2 at the open to morning highs of $63.71. Currently, crude is trading 2.5% higher at $63.58 per barrel.

Natural gas opened in negative territory and also bounced off lows at the open, pushing it into positive territory where it is currently trading 1.7% higher at $3.73.

Precious metals opened in negative territory, but spiked at the open into positive territory to early session highs. August gold is 0.4% higher currently at $938.50 per ounce, while Sept silver is 1.5% higher at $13.44 per ounce.DJ30 +11.56 NASDAQ -4.66 SP500 -1.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 922/485.0 mln/1390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/435.0 mln/1478

10:00 am : Financial stocks are rebounding after trading as laggards and posting a loss in the previous session. The sector is up just 0.3%, it has already erased Thursday's decline. Citigroup (C 3.14, +0.11) and Bank of America (BAC 13.46, +0.29) are providing leadership after reporting better-than-expected headline earnings results this morning.

Meanwhile, tech stocks recently surrendered their gains and are now down 0.2%.

The broader market is also grappling with selling pressure. Amid the broad-based declines, the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS 52.75, +0.48) is looking strong.

Early movers: Trading up -- BCRX +45.7%, CHINA +10.8%, ABIO +8.6%, DDE +7.1%, SWC +6.6%, IVN +6%, PCBC +5.5%, FOE +5.4%, WBS +5.2%; Trading down -- MELA -15.5%, BMI -12.2%, ANGO -11.7%, REG -8.3%, TLEO -7.7%, ELY -7.1%, RBCN -5.8%, ASBC -5.3%DJ30 -22.45 NASDAQ -10.66 SP500 -4.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 792/333 mln/1443 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 956/361 mln/1683

09:45 am : The major indices opened the session in the red, but have been able to pare some of their losses. Despite the broad decline, tech is stepping out once again to trade with strength.

The strength in tech took root earlier this week when semiconductor giant Intel (INTC 18.39, -0.11) posted one of its best quarterly reports in years. Last evening, IBM (IBM 113.97, +3.33) helped provide follow-through strength by posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and issuing an upside earnings forecast for fiscal 2009.

Tech is currently up 0.1% while the other sectors sport losses or fractional gains at best.DJ30 -8.09 NASDAQ -4.08 SP500 -2.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/230 mln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 998/306 mln/1562

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Stock futures are off of their morning lows, but it is still too early to say whether participants will push stocks higher to hand the market its fifth straight gain. After all, with stocks up 7% during the course of the past four sessions, many are anticipating some kind of retracement. Such a quick and sharp move has some shrugging off better-than-expected earnings headlines from industry bellwethers like General Electric (GE), IBM (IBM), Bank of America (BAC), and Google (GOOG). Citigroup (C) was the latest major to report quarterly results, which featured earnings of $0.49 per share, including asset sales gains. A loss had been expected. Separately, New York University Professor Roubini, who has often been regarded as a "perma-bear," said his comments yesterday about the worst of the economic and financial crisis being in the past were taken out of context and he still believes the recession will continue through the end of the year with a weak recovery. That admission dampened the early bias.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. U.S. stock futures have improved from earlier levels, but continue to lag fair value. European stocks are sporting solid gains, though. Their advance comes amid follow-through buying from recent sessions. France's CAC is currently up 0.6% in its fifth straight gain; it is up nearly 8% this week. Financial services outfit BNP Paribas has been a primary leader in that move. The stock is up roughly 1% this session, but up almost 10% week-to-date. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.6%. It is up nearly 9% for the week. Today's advance is broad-based as advancing issues outnumber decliners by 2-to-1, but Volkswagen and Daimler (DAI) are showing the most leadership. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.6% this session and up more than 6% week-to-date. HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader in current action. However, natural resource outfits Xstrata, BG Group, and BP PLC (BP) are also providing support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.9% higher and Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%. Nissan (NSANY) saw strong gains. According to reports, the automaker plans to develop its own hybrid technology for small and midsize cars. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng bounded 2.4% higher in its fourth straight advance. Banking issues led gains as HSBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China showed the most leadership. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite eked out a 0.2% gain. Chalco (ACH), China's top aluminum outfit, surged to its 10% daily limit.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. According to the latest economic data, which was just released at the bottom of the hour, housing starts during June totaled 582,000, which was more than the 530,000 starts that were expected. Meanwhile, housing starts for May were ramped up to 562,000. Building permits for June were also more than expected. They came in at 563,000, though economists had expected 524,000. The latest figure is up from the 518,000 permits that were tallied in May. Stock futures haven't shown much of a reaction to the data.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50. Stock futures have moved lower as participants try to take another breather after watching the S&P 500 and the Dow finish higher for four straight sessions. More impressive is that the Nasdaq logged its seventh straight gain on Thursday. The move lower this morning comes in the face of better-than-expected headline numbers from industrial conglomerate and economic bellwether General Electric (GE), which posted second quarter earnings of $0.26 per share, including certain items. Bank of America (BAC) also unveiled better-than-expected headline numbers. The outfit generated $0.33 per share for its latest quarter. The company did say, though, that adverse conditions led to higher losses in almost all consumer portfolios than the previous quarter. In turn, credit losses were higher than the prior quarter and additional reserves were added. Last evening tech giant IBM (IBM) announced it earned $2.32 per share during the second quarter. That handily topped the consensus estimate of $2.02 per share. IBM went on to say that it expects earnings for fiscal 2009 to be at least $9.70 per share, which is up from its previous estimate of $9.20 per share and above the $9.15 per share that Wall Street had forecast. Internet titan Google (GOOG) also reported last evening. It generated second quarter adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share, which exceeded the $5.09 per share that was widely expected. Market participants are still waiting to hear from Citigroup (C). Building permits and housing starts data for June are due at the bottom of the hour; they are the only items on today's economic calendar. As an aside, today's options expirations could play a role in trading since they typically induce volatility and higher share volume.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9395.32...+51.20...+0.60%. Hang Seng...18805.66...+443.80...+2.40%.

06:21 am : FTSE...4395.22...+33.40...+0.80%. DAX...4991.68...+34.50...+0.70%.

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