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 Post subject: July 16th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 4:57 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

5min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 12noon est in the S&P 500 Emini ES futures (price action better seen in SPY) and it setup a Long signal @ 1345pm est via our APAOR and VTR strategies.

As for my trading today, still having some problems with my endurance (ability to sit in front of the monitor all trading day without any rest) but unlike the prior six trading days I didn't miss any big trade opportunities when I take a break (rest) for 30 - 60 mins.

Other than that, got caught trading the price action during the FED congressional hearings that resulted in 4 consecutive losing trades. [ec24]

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=245

My Trading Performance: +14.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Rally On Banks And Techs
Wall Street moves higher as investors welcome JPMorgan Chase's strong results. Dow surges 94 points.
By CNNMoney.com staff
Last Updated: July 16, 2009: 4:17 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, finding momentum in a choppy session, as investors welcomed JPMorgan Chase's better-than-expected profit report and geared up reports from tech leaders after the close.

After the close, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) reported quarterly earnings that topped estimates on sales that missed forecasts.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 94 points, or 1.1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 8 points, or 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 24 points, or 1.3%.

Stocks were flat to lower through the morning as investors were cautious toward the end of what looks like the first up week in five on Wall Street. But stocks turned higher in late trading.

Better-than-expected results from Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) have helped support stock gains this week. But ongoing questions about the length of the recession have hampered any attempts at a bigger move.

As of Wednesday's close, the S&P 500 was up 6% for the week, recovering most of the total 7% lost in the last four weeks.

"People have been pleasantly surprised by the earnings so far, but we still have a tremendous number of reports ahead," said Larry Glazer, managing director at Mayflower Advisors. "Investors will become increasingly skeptical and the level of expectations will rise."

Currently, S&P 500 profits are expected to have dropped around 35% versus a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Reuters forecast.

Financials: Dow component JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported a profit of $2.7 billion, or 27 cents per share, easily surpassing forecasts. The profit occurred despite a one-time reduction to earnings related to paying back the government's TARP money.

JPMorgan said strong investment banking results overshadowed losses in its consumer lending and credit card businesses. Shares inched lower.

At the other end of the spectrum, small business lender CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) plunged 71% amid bankruptcy fears after the company said late Wednesday that it will not receive a government bailout.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers last September was seen as exacerbating the financial crisis. However, unlike AIG and other firms that received government help, a CIT bankruptcy filing is not seen as a risk to crippling the broad financial system.

The full impact of such a filing isn't clear, with CIT helping to fund as many as 1 million small businesses.

"A number of big financial companies came out and said they don't have much exposure to CIT, so there's some relief that it's not a systemic risk," Glazer said.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell more than expected last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Jobless claims fell to 522,000 last week, a six-month low.

However, results were influenced by shutdowns in auto industry production, rather than an improvement in the economy.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing, dipped to negative 7.5 in July from negative 2.2 in June. Economists expected the Philly Fed to have weakened to negative 5.

A record 1.53 million homes are in foreclosure in 2009, according to a report from online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac released Thursday.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.54% from 3.56% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and Japanese yen.

U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose 48 cents to settle at $62.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $3.70 to settle at $935.40 an ounce.

Market breadth turned positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers two to one on volume of 850 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly edged decliners eight to five on volume of 1.731 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Stocks spent most of the session moving sideways in choppy fashion as participants allowed the heady gains from earlier this week to consolidate. However, follow-through buying in tech helped offset weakness among financials and helped hand stocks another positive finish.

Financial stocks failed to provide leadership as participants took a breather after watching the sector climb more than 10% during the three previous sessions. That run left the sector looking ripe for some profit taking since it seemed that good news was largely priced into the sector. In turn, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 36.13, -0.13) grappled with selling pressure for virtually the entire session, even though it posted this morning better-than-expected second quarter earnings. Still, the sector was able to recover from a near 2% loss to finish with a modest 0.2% loss.

Other earnings announcements this morning were mixed. Global handset maker Nokia (NOK 13.46, -2.22) posted in-line earnings, but expects 2009 industry volumes to decline approximately 10% from 2008 levels. Baxter International (BAX 54.74, +1.65) topped earnings estimates. Marriott (MAR 20.44, -1.36) did, too, but it issued downside guidance.

Tech gets credit for providing a boon to the broader market. While the major indices were stuck in sideways movement, tech saw some follow-through from the previous session's advance and logged a 1.7% gain. What's more, many tech issues that typically lag were able garner continued support, which supports the notion that the market's overall bias has improved.

Typical tech leaders IBM (IBM 110.64, +3.42) and Google (GOOG 442.60, +4.43) were able to garner support of their own. Both companies reported their latest quarterly results after the closing bell (Note: Both firms announced earnings that topped expectations within minutes of the close). Bank of America (BAC 13.17, -0.25), Citigroup (C 3.03, -0.14), and General Electric (GE 12.40, +0.16) all report Friday morning.

With tech looking strong and buyers willing to step in, the Nasdaq registered its seventh straight gain. Such a feat hasn't been made in more than one year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow were able to log their fourth straight gain, which hasn't been done in more than one month.

Though tech showed leadership in the latest advance, the upward move was generally broad-based as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by nearly 4-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Some of the most encouraging jobless claims data in months was met with a muted response this morning and failed to induce more than a modest, temporary uptick in stock futures ahead of the opening bell. Initial claims for the week ended July 11 came in at 522,000, which is the lowest since January. Continuing claims pulled back sharply from record highs of 6.9 million to less than 6.3 million, which is the lowest tally since April. DJ30 +95.61 NASDAQ +22.13 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +1.2% SP400 +1.4% SP500 +8.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/2.10 bln/961 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2113/1.18 bln/881

3:35 pm : The market is holding on to a modest gain.

Natural gas futures surged this session. The futures posted the biggest gain of all commodities this session. They were rising before the inventory data was released, which came in at a slightly lower than expected build. These seemingly in line results traded as if they were a bullish data point. The August futures closed at $3.67 per contract, up 11.6%.

Crude oil finished modestly higher this session after trading in negative territory during the majority of the pit trade. The contracts closed at $62.02 per barrel, up 0.8%.

Silver futures closed fractionally higher at $13.23 per contract. They traded in the green during most of the pit trade and pulled back from late morning highs of $13.33 per ounce.

After quickly selling off about $5 per ounce during the morning to hit a session low of $932.60 per ounce, gold futures recovered rather quickly the $938 per ounce level. They pulled back yet again, though, and closed the pit trade 0.4% lower at $935.40 per ounce.DJ30 +86.92 NASDAQ +20.70 SP500 +7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/1.69 bln/1009 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2081/837 mln/902

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to march higher. Trading volume has also picked up from early afternoon levels, though it isn't as high as it was near the start of the session. Thus far, not quite 800 million shares have been traded on the NYSE. The 50-day moving average stands at 1.3 billion.

The afternoon's upward move has taken the financial sector into positive territory. Financials had been trading with a loss of roughly 2% at their session low, but are now up with a 0.2% gain.

Telecom is currently the only major sector to trade with a loss. The group is down 0.3%.DJ30 +75.73 NASDAQ +17.54 SP500 +7.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1516/1.52 bln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/741 mln/965

2:30 pm : The major indices have extended their recent upturn to reach fresh session highs. The ascent has taken the S&P 500 to its best level in one month.

While tech issues (+1.1%) continue to show follow-through strength from the previous session's advance, industrial stocks are stepping out to sport solid gains of their own. Currently, industrials are up 1.3%, more than any other sector, as General Electric (GE 12.43, +0.19) garners support ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning.

Still, the industrial sector is down more than 10% year-to-date, while the tech sector is up 29% this year. Tech's year-to-date performance is the best of the major sectors.DJ30 +55.33 NASDAQ +14.62 SP500 +4.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1419/1.38 bln/1158 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/671 mln/1110

2:00 pm : The major indices are making an upward push. That has the Nasdaq at a fresh session high, while the Dow and S&P 500 are at their best levels since this morning.

Often cited as a "perma-bear," New York University Professor Roubini said the worst is behind in terms of economic and financial conditions, Reuters has reported. The comments come after this morning's weekly jobless claims reports showed the lowest jobless claims tallies in months.DJ30 +25.40 NASDAQ +9.42 SP500 +1.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1244/1.24 bln/1284 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1656/609 mln/1283

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along, but they remain in a relatively narrow range. The stock market was up 0.2% at its session high, but down almost 0.6% at its session low. The sideways movement is helping to consolidate the strong run that stocks have made during the previous three sessions.

Participants are also readying themselves for earnings announcements from IBM (IBM 108.48, +1.26) and Google (GOOG 434.91, -3.26), which are scheduled to report after the closing bell. Heavyweights Bank of America (BAC 13.17, -0.25), Citigroup (C 3.02, -0.15), and General Electric (GE 12.17, -0.07) all report Friday morning.DJ30 -5.97 NASDAQ +2.32 SP500 -2.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1120/1.12 bln/1426 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/558 mln/1503

1:05 pm : Banking giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.75, -0.51) posted this morning better-than-expected second quarter earnings, but the strong results have failed to inspire much buying in the broader market. However, tech issues are showing follow-through strength following Intel's (INTC 18.27, +0.22) surprisingly strong quarterly report yesterday.

Financial stocks have been at the center of the stock market's heady gains, which began earlier this week with encouraging comments from influential analyst Meredith Whitney. However, with the financial sector climbing more than 10% in just three sessions, some say news like that of JPMorgan has already been taken into account; ahead of the opening bell, shares of JPM climbed more than 12% since Monday's start.

Now, some participants are taking profits and sending the financials lower. The sector is currently down 1.5% and hanging over the broader market.

Tech stocks are up a rather solid 0.5%, though. Since they represent the largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, they are providing a boon to the broader market.

Still, the competing forces have left the major indices to trade in choppy fashion.

Not even a sharper-than-expected decline in weekly jobless claims and continuing jobless claims have been able to stimulate a concerted buying effort. Initial claims fell to their lowest level since January by coming in at 522,000. Continuing claims suddenly pulled back from record highs to their lowest level since April. The news was released ahead of the opening bell and was followed with some knee-jerk buying, but it failed to firm up a positive bias. DJ30 +2.80 NASDAQ +3.49 SP500 -1.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/1.03 bln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1449/512 mln/1466

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 is fighting to make its way back into positive ground, where its counterparts currently reside with small gains.

The U.S. dollar is also making a bit of a recovery effort. The Dollar Index, which had been down fractionally earlier, is now trading at the unchanged mark.DJ30 +14.14 NASDAQ +4.76 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1133/943 mln/1374 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1411/473 mln/1489

12:00 pm : Stocks had been chopping along, but a recent spurt of buying has caused an upward spike. Overall action remains mixed, though.

Nonetheless, semiconductor stocks (+0.9%) are sporting solid gains as they continue to ride Intel's (INTC 18.15, +0.10) better-than-expected earnings report from yesterday. That's helping the Nasdaq take a slight lead over its counterparts.DJ30 +9.60 NASDAQ +4.05 SP500 -0.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/856 mln/1398 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1327/438 mln/1547

11:30 am : Tech stocks are holding on to a 0.3% gain amid selling pressure in the broader market. Health care (+0.1%) is the only other major sector trading with a gain.

The advance by the tech sector is largely underpinned by advances in SanDisk (SNDK 17.16, +0.96) and NVIDIA (NVDA 11.42, +0.27), which have both benefited from favorable comments circulating across media lines.

Meanwhile, many large-cap tech issues are lagging a bit. In turn, the Tech Select SPDR (XLK 18.58, +0.03) and PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 36.95, +0.03) are fighting to hold their gains.DJ30 -10.95 NASDAQ -0.67 SP500 -3.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1013/755 mln/1434 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1181/388 mln/1648

11:00 am : The major indices continue oscillating as they look for clear direction. Selling pressure has remained steady against financials, though.

The financial sector is down 1.4%, which is worse than any other major sector. However, the loss isn't as bad as the near 2% loss that financials displayed at their session low.

CIT Group (CIT 0.40, -1.24) is a primary laggard in the financial sector. According to reports, the regional lender will not obtain financing to help it stave off its capital troubles. Shares of CIT had been suspended from trading but recently resumed action to trade with a 75% loss.

Investment and trading services companies CME Group (CME 268.03, -9.87) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE 89.15, -2.15) are showing weakness of their own after trading with leadership in previous sessions. Their downturn comes amid chatter regarding an investigation into possible anticompetitive practices involving derivatives, which might affect derivatives exchanges and clearinghouses.DJ30 +10.51 NASDAQ +1.58 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1062/640 mln/1322 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1303/322 mln/1490

10:35 am : August crude oil opened lower and remains in negative territory in mid-morning trade. Currently, crude is trading 0.3% lower at $61.38 per barrel, well above morning lows of $60.29.

Natural gas spiked from the unchanged line at the open of floor trading and was trading near session highs of $3.40 ahead of weekly inventory data. Following inventory data, which showed a build of 90 bcf, natural gas spiked to a new session high to $3.447 and is now trading 4.8% higher at $3.439.

The dollar was trading lower early this morning, but has since moved back to the unchanged line. In precious metals, August gold remains lower from the open, while silver recently spiked off early morning lows back into positive territory. Currently, gold is 0.5% lower at $934.70 per ounce, while silver is 0.4% higher at $13.26 per ounce.DJ30 +15.57 NASDAQ +3.93 SP500 -0.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1053/501.8 mln/1253 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1278/258.9 mln/1452

10:00 am : The major indices recently reversed initial losses to make their way into positive territory, but they have since come under renewed selling pressure.

The materials sector continues to show the most strength. As a group, materials stocks are up 1.0%. Their advance comes in the face of weaker basic materials and commodities prices, which have put the CRB Commodity Index 0.1% into the red.

Treasuries are showing strength in the early going. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up 17 ticks as it rebounds from three straight sessions of sizable downward moves. During the previous three sessions the yield on the Note climbed some 30 basis points to more than 3.6%. With this morning's advance, the yield on the Note now stands just above 3.5%.DJ30 +1.90 NASDAQ +0.8 SP500 -2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 969/296 mln/1233 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/173 mln/1536

09:40 am : Stocks have opened lower and are trading with modest, broad-based losses. Only the materials sector (+0.7%) and the tech sector (+0.2%) are sporting gains.

Financials are feeling the brunt of this morning's downside move. The sector is down 1.3% as participants move to take some profits after watching the financial sector spike more than 10% during the course of the previous three sessions.

The run began with encouraging comments about the short-term prospects of banks from influential analyst Meredith Whitney. In turn, better-than-expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.60, -0.66) are generally being considered to be already baked into its stock price. Shares of JPM jumped more than 12% between last Friday's close and the previous session's close.DJ30 +8.77 NASDAQ -0.94 SP500 -0.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 804/129 mln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/97 mln/1426

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Despite better-than-expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and a surprisingly large drop in weekly jobless claims and continuing jobless claims, stocks are taking a breather ahead of the opening bell. In turn, the major equity averages look as if they will start the session flat-to-modestly lower. Stocks have finished higher in each of the past three sessions, netting more than 6% during that time. That's the best three-day run since mid-March. Such a sharp spike in such a short amount of time appears to have already priced in some of the recent headlines, which has caused some sell-the-news reactions. That is threatening to keep stocks from extending their gains to a fourth straight session. It has been more than one month since four straight gains have been made.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. U.S. stock futures have retreated after jumping in the wake of some better-than-expected weekly jobless claims data. Meanwhile, European markets are looking to extend their recent string of gains. France's CAC is leading the way as it sports a 1.2% gain. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are leaders in the action. Germany's DAX is up a solid 0.9% amid strength in engineering giant Siemens (SI). Deutsche Bank (DB) is lagging, though. Britain's FTSE is up 0.4%, thanks to leadership from global banking giant HSBC (HBC). Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is also providing support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained 1.0% and Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.8%. Exporters were helped along by a weaker yen, while strong results from Intel (INTC) helped prop up tech issues. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng made a 0.6% gain. HSBC and Bank of Communications were primary leaders, but Bank of China was a primary laggard. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% amid the heaviest tradilng volume in two years. Strong second quarter growth data generally met expectations and prompted profit taking. Still, financial stocks were bolstered as China said it would maintain a proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary stance.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Stock futures have moved higher following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims numbers. Initial claims for the week ending July 11 totaled 522,000, which is less than the 553,000 claims that were expected and down from the 569,000 claims that were registered the previous week. The previous week's numbers were revised modestly higher from 565,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims totaled 6.27 million, which falls short of the 6.85 million continuing claims that economists had come to expect. The latest continuing claims number marks a pullback from last week's tally. Last week's continuing claims number was revised higher to 6.92 million from 6.88 million. The revised number marks a new record high.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Market participants are taking a bit of a breather after sending the stock market up 6% during the course of the past three sessions. In turn, stock futures suggest the major indices will start the session flat-to-slightly lower. With the pause, investors are digesting earnings announcements from several major industry players and widely-held companies. Leading this morning's headlines is a much better-than-expected report from banking giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM). By bringing in $0.28 per share versus the $0.04 per share that was widely expected, JPMorgan is setting a high bar Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), which are scheduled to report Friday morning. Despite the upside surprise from JPM, its shares were recently down more than 1% to $35.80 per share in premarket action. The pushback comes after watching financial shares spike more than 10% so far this week. Global mobile phone and handset maker Nokia (NOK) posted in-line earnings results even though its top line increased slightly less than expected. The improved revenue came in the face of lower device volume. Nokia estimated that its market share improved to 38% sequentially, but that is still below the previous year's 40%. ADRs of NOK are down a sharp 10% to $14.08 each ahead of the opening bell. Baxter International (BAX) is down fractionally to just below $53.00 per share after announcing better-than-expected earnings of $0.96 per share and an in-line earnings forecast. There are also a few economic reports on tap for traders. The latest batch of initial jobless claims is due at the bottom of the hour, while TIC flow data is due at 9:00 AM ET. The Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80.

06:40 am : Nikkei...9344.16...+74.90...+0.80%. Hang Seng...18361.87...+103.20...+0.60%.

06:40 am : FTSE...4334.91...-11.50...-0.30%. DAX...4932.742...+3.90...+0.10%.

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