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 Post subject: July 10th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:12 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

1min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 0956am est in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF futures. The key WRB provided resistance for at least one short signal that occurred later in the price action soon after 1017am.

Also, although I usually only mention one key WRB out of several, I'm going to mention another @ 1040am est that provided resistance for at least one other short signal that occurred later in the price action soon after 1058am est.

As for my trading trading, I took most of the day off from trading due to a few personal appoitments and spent the rest of the day outside with my family.

However, I did do one quick trade in Emini TF to test my ping connection to the broker.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=240

My Trading Performance: +0.20 Emini TF (formerly ER2) points

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Stocks Down For 4th Straight Week
Chevron's profit warning drags on blue chips ahead of an onslaught of quarterly reports. Dow and S&P 500 slide for fourth straight week.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 10, 2009: 5:46 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Blue chips slipped Friday after a profit warning from Chevron dragged on oil stocks, but the Nasdaq managed modest gains for the day at the end of a down week for Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 37 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 3 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq (COMP) rose 3 points, or 0.2%.

The Dow and S&P 500 both closed lower for their fourth straight week. The Nasdaq closed lower for the third of four weeks.

Stocks have surged last spring as investors bet that the worst of the recession had already happened. But recent signs that the slowdown is far from over have driven markets lower. Since peaking on June 11 with an advance of 40% off its March 9 lows, the S&P 500 has lost 7%.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) began the second-quarter reporting period Wednesday, announcing a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss. Results really pick up next week, when Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) all report.

S&P 500 companies are expected to see profits decline by 36% from a year ago, according to the latest figures from Thomson Reuters.

In the first quarter, investors responded well to results that met, let alone beat, lowered forecasts. While the bar is set pretty low for the second quarter too, just meeting expectations won't be enough this time around.

"Investors are going to expect companies to hit the high end of forecasts," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "They want to see revenue growth and tangible evidence of improvement."

Oil: Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) said late Thursday that a drop in U.S. refining margins would cut into second-quarter profits and that the impact of higher oil prices was being countered by the weaker dollar. Shares fell 2.6% Friday.

Fellow Dow oil component Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) lost 1.5%. The Amex oil index lost 1.3%.

Oil services stocks were also pressured by a selloff in the price of crude.

Energy prices slumped. U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell 52 cents to settle at $59.89. Crude lost 10% of its value this week.

Economy: The May trade balance narrowed to $26 billion -- the lowest reading in a decade and a surprise to economists who were looking for it to expand to $30 billion. The April trade deficit stood at a revised $28.8 billion in April.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 64.6 in July from 70.8 in June. Economists thought it would fall to 70.

General Motors: The automaker emerged from bankruptcy protection Friday with fewer brands, dealerships and billions less in debt.

The so-called new GM will be majority owned by the U.S. government, with the Canadian government, and the United Auto Workers union also taking a share. Old GM's bondholders will eventually own about 10% of the company, although old GM shareholders will not.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.30% from 3.40% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and fell against the Japanese yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery settled down $3.70 to $912.50 an ounce.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by a narrow margin on volume of 922 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped decliners on volume of 1.69 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : For a majority of the session stocks traded in negative territory, although the Nasdaq was a clear leader, finishing with a slight gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow closed with modest losses. Shares in technology leaders, such as Apple (AAPL 138.64 + 2.16) and Google (GOOG 414.40 +4.01), helped the tech-laden Nasdaq to outperform.

After the market opened moderately lower, stocks staged a brief rally to erase the pre-market losses until the preliminary July Michigan Sentiment data was released, which was worse than expected at 64.6 vs. a 70.0 consensus. The disappointing number derailed the rally and sent stocks on a steady downward course until the market hit its intra-day low at about 11:30 E.T. The stock market bounced off those lows and moved steadily higher until about 1:00 ET, and then generally chopped around in a tight range until the close. Preceding the Michigan Sentiment number was the surprisingly better than expected May Trade Balance report, released at 8:30 ET, which was reported at -$26 billion vs. -$30 billion. While the report seemed decidedly positive, it had a muted affect on futures price

Perhaps the corporate news item that captured the most attention, and headlines, came before the open when General Motors announced its exit plans from bankruptcy with a new corporate structure and stronger balance sheet. More specifically, the company stated that it expects to be taken public next year and plans to repay its government loans much soon than the 2015 timeline. In other corporate news, Chevron (CVX 61.40 -1.68) stated that the benefit to upstream earnings in 2Q09 from increased oil prices will be largely offset by substantial unfavorable foreign currency effects. Also, downstream results are projected to be significantly lower than the first quarter. Shares of other major oil and gas companies, such as Exxon Mobil (XOM 65.12 -0.85) and Marathon Oil (MRO 28.30 -0.37), also traded with losses following that news. Further compounding the issue for energy related stocks, was that the price of crude oil continued its slide lower, finishing the session lower by 1.0% at $59.82 per barrel. For metals, September silver contracts closed down 2.2% at $12.65/ounce and August gold dropped 0.4% at $912.30/ounce, although the contracts gained momentum throughout the session.

In terms of leaders and laggards, financials were weak for most of the session, as was energy. Shares of JP Morgan (JPM 32.34 -1.28), Citigroup (C 2.59 -0.10), and Wells Fargo (WFC 22.87 -0.41) were a few of the notably weak stocks in the sector. Additionally, ag-related fertilizer stocks were down about 3-9%, following potash contract negotiations between India and Russian potash producer Silvinit, which came in at $460/mt, significantly below the prior year's level of $625/mt. Industrials was the lone major sector to post gains.

As the day wore on, news flow and volume slowed considerably. With earnings season set to kick in next week, many participants likely sat on the sidelines waiting to get a better feel for how June quarter results will play out. DJ30 -36.7 NASDAQ +3.5 SP500 -3.6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/1679/1220 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/922.1/1529

3:35 pm : The market continues to trade side ways this afternoon on weak volume. Neither the S&P 500 nor the Dow have been able to break into positive territory this session. On the other hand, the Nasdaq is currently outperforming, straddling the unchanged level.

Energy commodities and precious metals revisited their recent downward trend this session. A strong dollar aided those commodities in erasing yesterday's gains. Both crude oil and natural gas futures opened the pit trade substantially below their prior session's close. Both also traded in negative territory throughout the session. August natural gas futures closed down 1.2% at $3.37 per contract while August crude oil futures closed near session highs, down 1.0% at $59.82 per barrel.

Silver futures sold off in the over night trade and was never able to recoup that loss. However, the futures did recover somewhat from session lows in the late morning of $12.51 per ounce. September silver futures closed down 2.2% at $12.65 per ounce.

August gold futures opened the pit trade at a session low of $906.60 per ounce. The futures contracts gained momentum thought the session and closed down just 0.4% at $912.30 per ounce.DJ30 -25.95 NASDAQ +0.18 SP500 -5.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/1.36 bln/1346 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1299/655 mln/1661

3:00 pm : The market is essentially stuck in neutral now, moving in a tight range, as we head into the final hour of trading for the week.

The financial sector has been a laggard all day, with JP Morgan Chase (JPM -1.27) one of the hardest hit stocks in the group. Citigroup (C -0.12) and Wells Fargo (WFC -0.21) are also considerably lower today. Next week will be busy in terms of earnings reports for this sector, with Goldman Sachs (GS -1.18), JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America (BAC -0.13) all scheduled to report. DJ30 -65.1 NASDAQ -0.8 SP500 -5.7 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/1209.9/1382 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/561.5/1670

2:35 pm : The stock market had been choppy during the late morning and early afternoon hours, without a clear sense of direction, but the major averages have started to drift lower as we head towards the close. Investors and traders may be tepid ahead of next week's earnings reports, choosing instead to wait on the sidelines to get a better sense of how the June quarter results play out. DJ30 -65.3 NASDAQ -1.7 SP500 -5.8 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1179/1127.2/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/519.8/1690

1:30 pm : The rally in the market has just stalled out, and is now moving in a sideways manner. The lone major sector trading with gains is Industrials, up a paltry 0.09%.

While the equity markets were pushing higher, commodity prices have remained weak. Crude oil has continued its slide lower this week, currently down by 0.91%, while gold is also off by 0.53%.

DJ30 -57.7 NASDAQ -1.25 SP500 -4.9 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/971.6/1393 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/447.8/1710

1:05 pm : Before the open, futures indicated a moderately lower start, although there wasn't any one item accountable for the weakness. One headline of interest, however, came from the foreign markets as a report showed that China's exports fell for an eighth month as the global recession cut demand. Sales fell 21.4% in June with imports dropping a less-than-estimated 13.2%. In terms of corporate news, one of the more significant stories of the morning came from General Motor's, as the company announced its exit plans from bankruptcy with a new corporate structure and stronger balance sheet. On its conference call, the company stated that it expects to be taken public next year, while repaying government loans much sooner than a 2015 timeline. Another company that caught participants' attention was Chevron (CVX -1.88), which stated that the benefit to upstream earnings in 2Q09 from increased oil prices will be largely offset by substantial unfavorable foreign currency effects. Also, downstream results are projected to be significantly lower than the first quarter. Chevron has been trading lower today, down 3.1%, as have other major oil and gas companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.96) and Marathon Oil (MRO -0.50)... The first piece of economic data was released at 8:30 ET, when the surprisingly better than expected May Trade Balance was reported at -$26 billion vs. -$30 billion consensus. Most noteworthy was a pickup in exports from $121.4 billion to $123.3 billion. This could prove a one-month blip, but after the steady slide from $164.4 billion from July of 2008, it provides hope that exports will now stabilize. While the data was seemingly positive, it had a muted effect on futures prices... After the lower open, the major averages began an upward ascent with the Nasdaq clearly outperforming, to trade with modest gains, while the Dow and S&P 500 remained slightly lower. Then, at about 9:55 ET, the July preliminary Michigan Sentiment number came in worse than expected at 64.6 vs 70.0 consensus. This disappointing figure put a halt to the upswing in the market, leading to a sharp sell-off for stocks with the major averages hitting session lows at about 11:30 ET. However, since hitting those lows, the market has bounced back to cut the losses without a discernible catalyst. Currently, the Nasdaq (+0.01%) is trading very slightly higher and the S&P 500 (-0.46%) and Dow (-0.57%) are modestly lower. News flow has slowed considerably, not surprisingly on a summer, Friday afternoon. Looking ahead to next week, earnings season will kick into gear which should provide for more market moving headlines. Some of the larger names set to report earnings next week include Goldman Sachs (GS) and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) on Tuesday; Nokia (NOK), Black Rock (BLK), and JPM Morgan (JPM), Google (GOOG) on Thursday; and General Electric (GE) and Bank of America (BAC) on Friday.DJ30 -50.3 NASDAQ -1.3 SP500 -4.6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/906.1/1415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1119/416.6/1747

12:30 pm : The Nasdaq 100 (+0.03%) is now slightly up for the session with large cap technology names the clear winners so far on the session. Apple (AAPL +1.68), Google (GOOG +3.18), and Cisco (CSCO +0.03) and are a few tech names showing relative strength. The major averages have also reversed course and have cut their losses but are still down for the day.

One story of interest is that a bipartisan group of U.S. House lawmakers is asking President Barack Obama for an investigation of the Federal Reserve, ratcheting up the pressure on the central bank coming from Capitol Hill, according to DJ. Three Democrats and 14 Republicans wrote in the letter to Obama that the Fed shouldn't be granted any new authority amid questions about its role in fostering Bank of America acquisition of Merrill Lynch. The White House's regulatory reform proposal would give the Fed broad new authority to contain systemic risks. "If a thorough investigation of these events brings to light conclusive evidence that the Federal Reserve has overstepped its authority and abused its power under current law...it would be inappropriate to grant it sweeping new powers," said the July 10 letter signed by Reps. Scott Garrett, R-NJ; Alan Grayson, D-Fla., and others. DJ30 -62.1 NASDAQ -4.7 SP500 -6.1 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1002/818.8/1479 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 981/376.7/1872

12:00 pm : As the session has progressed, the amount of news flow has noticeably slowed. The major averages are still trading with moderate losses, but have recently began ticking slightly higher. With the equity markets still trading with moderate losses, the 10-Year note continues to show strength, now higher by 1.02%.

Although its not necessarily moving the market, we note that Treasury Secretary Geithner testified this morning before a joint hearing of the House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees. According to Reuters, he outlined a number of proposals to reform problems within the over-the-counter derivatives market, which he says "cannot be adequately addressed within the present legislative or regulatory framework." The administration's first proposed step would require all standardized derivative contracts to be cleared through "well-regulated central counter-parties and executed either on regulated exchanges or regulated electronic trade execution systems."DJ30 -73.76 NASDAQ -6.3 SP500 -7.8 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 878/722.4/1569 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 823/334.6/1995

11:35 am : The stock market continues to aggressively sell-off in mid-morning trade, with the Nasdaq now slipping into the red. The Dow and S&P 500 are trading lower by more than one percent. One area than has sharply reversed course is agriculture following this mornings USDA supply-demand report, which was bearish for corn futures. Potash (POT -7.09) and Mosaic (MOS -2.4) are both trading sharply lower.

General Motors has also been making headlines over the past hour as it holds its Business Update Conference Call. During the call, General Motors stated that it expects to be taken public next year, and that it also expects to repay government loans much sooner than 2015. Even with all its financial troubles, the company said it still plans for 27 new launches over the next 18 months.DJ30 -33 NASDAQ -0.62 SP500 -9.6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/605.3/1373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 961/282.4/1804

11:05 am : Following the worse than expected June Michigan Sentiment data, which came in at 64.6 vs the 70.0 consensus, the stock market dove lower but has since found support. The major averages are now slowly ticking higher with the Nasdaq continuing to show leadership.

Losses, however, are still broad based as there is not a major sector posting meaningful gains. One of the weakest areas has been in energy, and in particular, oil and gas as the price of crude continues to fall. A few of the larger names trading with losses include Exxon Mobil (XOM -$0.85), Marathon Oil (MRO -0.47), and Chevron (CVX -1.94). Chevron announced last night that upstream earnings for Q2 compared with Q1 are expected to benefit from an increase in prices for crude oil, but largely offset by substantial unfavorable foreign currency effects. Downstream results are projected to be significantly lower than the first quarter.DJ30 -32.9 NASDAQ +3.3 SP500 -4.0 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/213.2/956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1104/110.5/1469

10:30 am : August crude oil remains in negative territory, just below the $60 level, down 1.2% at $59.69.

August natural gas opened lower and pushed to morning lows of $3.35. Natural gas has recovered some of its losses and is currently 0.4% lower at $3.40.

The dollar is higher this morning, which is weighing on precious metals. August gold is 0.4% lower at $912.09 per ounce. Silver is showing sharper losses and is currently down 2.5% at $12.65 per ounce.DJ30 -22.60 NASDAQ +7.39 SP500 -1.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1183/414.79 mln/1089 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1179/195.78 mln/1503

10:05 am : Equities retreat from morning highs on worse than expected sentiment data .

After staging an early reversal off their lows, the major averages have retreated from their morning highs in the wake of a worse than expected prliminary Michigan Sentiment reading for July, which came in at 64.6, below the 70.0 consensus.

DJ30 -46.0 NASDAQ +2.3 SP500 -4.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/173.8/874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1224/94.2/1330

09:50 am : After the market opened moderatly lower, the major averages quickly pushed higher, led by the Nasdaq which in now in positive territory. The S&P 500 and Dow are still lower, but the losses are minimal. Large-cap technology stocks are early leaders this morning, including gains in Apple (AAPL 138.29), Google (GOOG +4.48), and Cisco (CSCO +0.18). Fertilizer names are also showing notable early morning strength, including Potash (POT +1.38), Mosaic (MOS +1.37).DJ30 -20.6 NASDAQ +6.3 SP500 880.4 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 840/64.7/1137 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 614/43.1/1764

09:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. Futures continue to point to a lower start to the day, after drifting just off their lows for most of the morning. The weaker start follows a late day pullback into the close of trading yesterday, moderate declines in overseas trading, and a report that China's exports declined for the eighth straight month, causing some to temper hopes on the strength of an economic recovery. However, better than expected U.S. trade data was released as well this morning, highlighted by a smalller May deficit reading and a pickup in exports. Corporate news has been light thus far. General Motors announced its exit from bankruptcy, with a new corporate structure and a stronger balance sheet. All this comes ahead of the Michigan Sentiment report, which is due out at 10:00 ET, although the this report typically gets released around 9:55 ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Foreign markets are lower today, with Europe showing deeper losses than Asia. In Europe, Germany's DAX dropped 0.8%, leaving the index heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline. The UK's FTSE also fell 0.3% led by a drop in energy companies. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP fell as crude headed for its biggest weekly drop since January. In France, the CAC slid 0.7%. In the Asian markets, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed -0.3%, posting its second straight weekly drop. The Nikkei clsoed down -0.04%, the Hang Seng dropped 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite was off by 0.3%. A headline that has garnered much of the attention from the Asian markets was that China's exports fell for an eighth month as the global recession cut demand, with sales falling 21.4% in June, with imports dropping a less-than-estimated 13.2%. Also in mainland China, the country's first two initial public offerings in 10 months soared in a bullish debut. Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical surged 82%, while Zhejiang Wanma Cable raced up 125%.

08:30 am : Futures saw little reaction to May trade data, and remain just off the lows of the morning. The U.S. Trade Deficit data that was just released showed a May trade balance of -$26.0 billion vs the -$30.0 billion consensus. The prior data was revised to -$28.8 billion from -$29.2 billion. Also, the June Import Prices came in higher than expected at +3.2% MoM vs +2.0% consensus.

08:00 am : Futures are indicating a moderately lower open this morning. There doesn't appear to be one clear cause that is sending futures lower, but there was some negative economic data out of China this morning worth mentioning. China overnight reported their trade surplus for June, which fell to $8.3 bln, well below the $15.5 bln consensus estimate. Also, there haven't been any major earnings reports this morning, although oil producer Chevron (CVX) is trading lower by 3% this morning after saying the upstream earnings benefit from an increase in prices for crude oil is largely offset by substantial unfavorable foreign currency effects, and that Q2 downstream results are projected to be significantly lower than Q1.

In other news, Reuters reported that General Motors (GMGMQ.PK) is prepared to announce its exit from bankruptcy on Friday after a 40-day reorganization under U.S. government backing that wiped away most of the debt and recurring costs that drove the co to crisis. Also, the Wall Street Journal reports that several Wall Street firms seeking to buy back warrants held by the government as part of the $700 bln financial bailout are complaining that the Treasury Dept. is demanding too high a price, according to people familiar with the matter. JP Morgan (JPM) CEO James Dimon raised the issue directly with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, disagreeing with some of the valuation methods that the government was using to value the warrants.

Looking ahead, In economic news, Import Prices and Trade Balance data are due out at 8:30 ET, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10:00 ET, although the sentiment report typically gets released around 9:55 ET.

06:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

06:31 am : Nikkei...9287.28...-3.80...0.00. Hang Seng...17708.42...-82.20...-0.50%.

06:31 am : FTSE...4130.25...-28.50...-0.70%. DAX...4601.49...-28.60...-0.60%.

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