TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:15 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: July 9th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:35 pm 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Key WRB Price Action

2min All Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 0926am est in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF futures. The key WRB provided resistance for 2 short signals from the VTR strategies.

Today, as for my trading, avoided the mid-day range via taking long breaks from the market by spending more time with the family. Also, my ISP connection was perfect in comparison to yesterday.

In addition, I have a few personal appointments tomorrow and may not be able to trade. If that's the case (no trades), have a good weekend all.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=239

My Trading Performance: +8.10 Emini TF (formerly ER2) points

-------------------------------



Stocks Struggle Higher
Dow-component Alcoa posts a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and initial claims come in below consensus, a good sign for the labor market.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 9, 2009: 5:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bank, tech and commodity shares rose Thursday, but the broad market wavered as Alcoa's narrower-than-expected quarterly loss failed to dispel concerns about the start of the quarterly reporting period.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 4 points or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 3 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq (COMP) rose 5 points, or 0.3%.

Stocks managed gains Thursday, but the trend has remained downward since mid-June as investors have stepped back after a 40% rally off the March 9 lows.

Bets that the economy is stabilizing have given way to concerns that the stock market has gotten ahead of any recovery. Wall Street will be listening to a variety of corporations over the next week as they report quarterly results and give their outlook on future profits and the state of the economy.

"I don't know that there's anything out there that's going to lead us upward, until we start seeing the impact of the stimulus," said Joe Arnold, president at Foundation Wealth Advisors.

He said that after the big rally, investors remain on the defensive, staying in cash and waiting for concrete evidence that the economy is starting to turn around.

Friday's reports include the May trade balance from the Commerce Department, June import and export prices from the Labor Department and the initial July consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

Quarterly results: Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) began the corporate reporting period late Wednesday. The aluminum producer said it lost 26 cents per share versus a profit of 66 cents a year ago as the global recession hurt pricing and demand. But the decline was narrower than the loss of 38 cents per share analysts expected, according to Thomson Reuters.

Alcoa shares were off 2% Thursday afternoon.

S&P 500 companies are expected to see profits decline by 36% from a year ago, according to the latest figures from Thomson Reuters.

In the first quarter, better-than-expected earnings were rewarded by investors. But this time, investors are expecting more, said James Moore, equity research at Morgan Joseph.

"Cost cutting and inventory reduction won't be enough this time," he said. "We're going to need to see a pickup in revenue."

Next week brings reports from financial firms JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500). Dow components Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) are on tap as well.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 565,000 last week from a revised 617,000 the previous week. That was short of the 603,000 new claims economists expected, according to a Briefing.com survey.

But continuing claims, a measure of Americans receiving benefits for a week or more, rose to 6,883,000, a fresh record high.

May wholesale inventories fell 0.8% after falling a revised 1.3% last month. Economists thought inventories would fall 1%. It was the ninth straight month of declining inventories.

Retail: The economic slowdown continued to take its toll on consumer spending, with clothing retailers and luxury item merchants especially feeling the impact of the recession.

Among the notable decliners, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) said same-store sales fell 32% versus a year ago, topping forecasts for a drop of 26.6%. Same-store sales is a key retail sector indicator that measures sales at stores open a year or more.

Victoria's Secret owner Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500) said sales fell 12% versus forecasts for a drop of 7.9%.

Other movers: Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) and Portola Pharmaceuticals said they will develop and market an oral blood thinner used to prevent stroke in heart patients. Merck will pay Portola $50 million up front and potentially an additional $420 million down the line. Merck, a Dow component, fell 3.7%.

But a variety of other Dow stocks rose, including DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.01 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped decliners on volume of 1.91 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.40% from 3.31% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets ended mixed, while European markets ended higher.

Energy prices gained after several down sessions. U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose 27 cents to settle at $60.41.

In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $6.90 to settle at $916.20 an ounce.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks made modest gains amid choppy trading that followed Alcoa's latest earnings announcement, disappointing retail sales data, and a mixed weekly jobless claims report.

Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.23, -0.23) kicked off earnings season last night with its second quarter earnings announcement. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share, but that wasn't as bad as what had been expected. Alcoa showed strength in the early going and provided a boost to the materials sector, but the aluminum giant's shares inevitably faltered. Still, the broader materials sector was able to log a 1.0% gain as commodities prices rebounded amid a weaker U.S. dollar.

Crude oil futures prices rebounded from six straight losses to finish pit trading near $60.30 per barrel, up 0.2%. Though oil's advance was modest, energy stocks were able to log a 1.1% gain.

By climbing 1.4%, financial stocks saw the strongest gains of any major sector. However, the financial sector's strength failed to inspire a concerted buying effort in the broader market.

Semiconductor stocks also showed strength and helped the Semiconductor Index climb 2.8%. Strength among semiconductors did little to support the headline indices, though.

Retailers spent the entire session trading in-line with the broader market. Though their 0.4% gain appears modest, the upturn was a rather impressive since it came amid a barrage of disappointing June same-store sales reports that were highlighted by negative results.

The broader market was restrained a bit by news that continuing jobless claims marched to another new record high by coming in at 6.88 million. That feat overshadowed news that the latest initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 565,000. Though that marked the first time since January that initial claims came in below 600,000, participants recognized that the lower claims number came during a holiday week and that the number will likely be offset in coming weeks. DJ30 +4.76 NASDAQ +5.38 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +3.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1304/1.90 bln/1301 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1812/1.01 bln/1178

3:30 pm : Stocks have broken this afternoon's upward momentum.

Meanwhile, a weak dollar helped commodities recoup their recent losses this session.

Both natural gas and crude oil futures traded higher but sold off at the open of the pit trade.

Crude oil futures fell to session lows early in the morning session, recorded at $59.25 per barrel. The August contracts did recover, though, and closed up 0.2% at $60.32 per barrel.

Natural gas futures gyrated following inventory data, which displayed a lower than expected build. They hit their session low and high within 15 minutes of each other soon after, but were able to stay in positive territory the entire session. The August contracts finished 1.8% higher at $3.41 per contract.

August gold futures were also able to stay in positive territory for the entire session. The contracts closed soon after recording session highs at $918.90 per ounce and closed at $916.20 per ounce, up 0.8%.

September silver futures recovered from morning weakness and closed fractionally higher at $12.94 per ounce.DJ30 +1.96 NASDAQ +9.30 SP500 +2.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1471/1.55 bln/1111 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1899/734 mln/1077

3:00 pm : Though earnings season began last night with Alcoa's (AA 9.37, -0.09) latest quarterly report, announcements don't begin to come in earnest until next week. In turn, only a handful of companies are scheduled to report their earnings results after the closing bell today and before the opening bell tomorrow.

As for the economic calendar, export and import price data for June is due Friday morning (8:30 AM ET). The trade balance report for May is also due tomorrow morning (8:30 AM ET). The preliminary consumer sentiment survey for July is due from the University of Michigan after trading gets under way tomorrow (9:55 AM ET).DJ30 +29.85 NASDAQ +15.42 SP500 +6.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/1.39 bln/990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2006/652 mln/951

2:35 pm : The stock market recently made its way to a fresh session high, but has since eased back a bit.

Eight of the 10 major sectors are in the green. Only consumer staples (-0.4%) and health care (-0.6%) are in the red.DJ30 +33.55 NASDAQ +14.58 SP500 +7.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/1.33 bln/978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2036/622 mln/913

2:00 pm : The U.S. dollar has fallen under increasingly stiff selling pressure, which has taken the Dollar Index to a 1.2% loss. The dollar hasn't made such a sharp single-session drop in more than two weeks.

However, the dollar's decline has provided a boon for commodity prices, which are up 1.3% according to the CRB Commodity Index. Buyers are also bidding commodity prices higher after watching the CRB log losses for three straight sessions. During that time the CRB shed 6%.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to chop along in positive territory. Gains remain broad-based.DJ30 +13.98 NASDAQ +10.92 SP500 +5.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1506/1.20 bln/1021 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1902/561 mln/1029

1:30 pm : Semiconductor stocks are seeing outsized gains this session. In turn, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up a robust 3.8%. That has taken it to a near 23% year-to-date gain.

Broadcom (BRCM 24.55, +1.20) is a primary leader in the Semiconductor Index. The stock also saw a recent spike in trading volume.

1:05 pm : Dow component Alcoa started earnings season last night by reporting a loss for the second quarter, but the shortfall wasn't as bad as what had been expected. That has helped the broader market make modest gains in the face of choppy, listless trading.

Gains are generally broad-based, but the defensive-oriented health care (-1.5%), consumer staples (-0.8%), and telecom (-0.2%) sectors have lagged for the entire session.

The 10-year Treasury Note, a traditional safe haven, has also been under steady pressure. The benchmark Note is down 23 ticks, which has lifted its yield roughly 7 basis points to 3.4% since yesterday.

Financial stocks are outperforming the broader market as they climb to a 2.0% gain. Though the sector has underpinned the broader market's moves in the past, participants aren't piling into the action.

Energy stocks are sporting an enviable 1.8% gain, even though oil prices have fallen under the control of sellers for the seventh straight session. Crude oil futures were last priced at $60.00 per barrel, down 0.2%.

Strength in other commodity prices has helped the materials sector make its way to a 1.6% gain. Materials member Alcoa (AA 9.47, +0.01) announced last evening an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share for its latest quarter, but the results weren't as bad as the loss of $0.38 per share that had been expected. The stock has surrendered its initial gains.

Shares of retailers (+0.3%) are trading in-line with the broader market after outperforming in the previous session. The group has been a bit restrained by several disappointing monthly same-store sales reports.

News that continuing jobless claims climbed to a new record of 6.88 million has also dampened prospects for consumers since consumer spending obviously requires a source of income. However, the latest initial weekly claims did drop more than expected to 565,000, but the decline is being treated with a bit of skepticism since many believe the fewer job losses for the holiday week will be balanced in coming weeks.DJ30 -0.08 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/1.04 bln/1048 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/484 mln/1046

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recently moved another notch higher to come in close contact with session highs, which were set earlier this morning. The Dow, however, is lagging with a fractional gain as it has been unable to ascend to the levels it saw in the early going.

Part of the Dow's relative weakness stems from weakness in big pharma stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 56.49, -0.59) and Merck (MRK 26.94, -1.10), which were actually leaders in the previous session. Shares of JNJ have nearly reversed all of the gains that they made yesterday, while shares of MRK are trading near weekly lows.DJ30 +7.86 NASDAQ +11.31 SP500 +5.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1493/928 mln/974 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1891/434 mln/990

12:00 pm : Stocks are ascending, but they have yet to reach their early morning highs. Shares of retailers are trading in-line with the broader market after outperforming in the previous session. The group's quieted advance comes after a barrage of monthly same-store sales reports.

For June, Target (TGT 38.69, +1.43) posted a 6.2% decline in same-store sales, while Gap (GPS 14.91, -0.34) reported a 10.% drop for same-store sales and American Eagle (AEO 12.94, -0.17) reported an 11% decline in comparable sales. Macy's (M 10.68, -0.01) saw same-store sales slip nearly 9% and JC Penney (JCP 26.25, -1.28) reported a 8.2% drop in comparables.

Buckle (BKE 29.39, -1.01) was one of the few companies to actually same-store sales increase. The company saw comparables climb more than 9% in June.DJ30 -4.46 NASDAQ +8.36 SP500 +3.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1422/817 mln/1012 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1776/379 mln/1065

11:30 am : Crude oil prices have surrendered early gains and now trade with a 0.8% loss at $59.65 per barrel. Should the loss hold, oil will log its seventh straight loss.

The decline in oil prices hasn't really undercut the energy sector this session, however. Energy stocks, as a group, are up a healthy 1.1%. Energy stocks were up nearly 1.7% at their session high, though.

Still, oil and gas exploration companies are seeing strong gains; they are up 2.3%, collectively. Oil and gas refiners are up 2.3% and oil and gas drillers are up 2.1%.DJ30 -13.68 NASDAQ +3.94 SP500 +1.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1314/716 mln/1064 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1644/331 mln/1163

11:00 am : Trading has been choppy as stocks struggle this morning to set forth on a clear path; their hasn't been any concerted buying or selling effort.

Energy, materials, and financials are all trading with healthy 1.4% gains, which are the best of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500.

Health care is at the other end of the spectrum. The sector is down 1.4%, worse than any other major sector.DJ30 -5.06 NASDAQ +6.21 SP500 +2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1397/588 mln/943 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1683/276 mln/1093

10:35 am : August crude opened higher this morning, but sold off at the open. Crude has since broke through the $60 level and is now trading 0.3% lower at $59.99.

Natural gas hit morning highs of $3.477 just before the open, but gave back half of those gains ahead of this morning's inventory data. Following the data, natural gas ticked modestly higher on a smaller than expected build and is currently trading 2.2% higher at $3.43.

The dollar is trading lower, while precious metals are mixed. August gold opened in positive territory and is currently 0.3% higher at $912.00 per ounce. Sept silver opened slightly lower. Silver attempted to rally, but couldn't hold its gains and moved back in negative territory. Silver is currently 0.3% lower at $12.82 per ounce. DJ30 -8.46 NASDAQ +3.79 SP500 +1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1348/466.5 mln/923 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1639/221.7 mln/1090

10:00 am : Stocks recently pulled back to the unchanged mark, but found support there and returned to higher ground. Amid the rebound, financials have emerged to trade with the most handsome gains of any major sector; they are up 1.4%.

Investment banks and brokerage outfits (+2.4%) are showing some of the most strength in the financial sector. Regional banks (+2.1%) are also providing support after trading as laggards in the previous session.

Just hitting news wires, wholesale inventories for May decreased 0.8%, which is less than the 1.0% decrease that had been expected. Wholesale inventories for April were revised slightly higher to reflect a 1.3% decrease.

Early movers: Trading up -- RIGL +14%, SFI +12.3%, AXL +11.1%, NVAX +10.8%, CPSL +9.9%, PAL +9.8%, GSI +9.3%, HBAN +8.2%, DLX +8.1%, FCSX +7.9%, FSR +7.7%, CLNE +7.2%, SOL +7.1%, NILE +6.7%; Trading down -- ELX -12.7%, VRGY -9.9%, EXBD -9.5%, COMS -8.5%, SIMO -8.1%, NVGN -8.1%, KMT -7.4%, NSR -6.7%, MAPP -6.6%, EDZ -6.3%, AIG -5.9%DJ30 +10.28 NASDAQ +8.36 SP500 +2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1322/250 mln/839 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/126 mln/1016

09:45 am : The major indices have made a modest pullback since starting the session with solid gains. Still, stocks remain in positive territory with broad-based gains.

Materials stocks are making the strongest advance. The sector is up 1.0% as commodities and basic materials prices climb higher amid a weaker U.S. dollar, which is down a sharp 0.8% against a basket of foreign currencies.

Defensive-oriented sectors are showing weakness, though. Health care is down 0.8%, consumer staples stocks are down 0.4%, and telecom is down 0.1%.DJ30 +6.42 NASDAQ +5.17 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1257/160 mln/835 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1504/91 mln/1054

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Stocks appear poised for a solid start following a flurry of positive news items, including a less severe loss from Dow component Alcoa (AA) than had been expected, a sharper-than-expected drop in weekly initial jobless claims, and a positive tone in major foreign markets. A late upswing into the close of the previous session has also brought some positive momentum into premarket trading. However, not all of the news this morning has been positive. Continuing jobless claims climbed to a new record of 6.88 million, which reflects the ongoing weakness of labor markets. With the jobless count still high, many consumers are keeping purse strings tight, which has retailers are struggling to attract shoppers. In turn, many retailers have been reporting declines in monthly same-store sales results. What's worse, many of the declines have been sharper than we expected.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. U.S. stock futures continue to show strength, suggesting that a positive start is in order for the major U.S. equity averages. Stocks are also showing strength abroad as Germany's DAX climbs to a 1.8% gain. Siemens (SI) is a primary leader amid news from Dow Jones that the company has landed orders totaling some 1 billion euros for infrastructure projects ahead of the 2010 World Cup. In France, advancers outnumber declining issues by 7-to-1 in the CAC, which is up 1.2%. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary leader in the CAC as crude oil futures prices rebound from their recent slump. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.9% following the Bank of England's decision to keep its key interest rate pegged at 0.50%, as expected. Metals and mining giants Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton, and Anglo American (AAUK) are among the primary leaders in the FTSE. According to Times of London, AAUK's shareholders have rejected Xstrata's proposed merger with Anglo American. Action was mixed in Asia, where the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index finished the latest session unchanged, but Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4%. Exporters dropped as the yen remains near five-month highs against the U.S. dollar. Energy companies also showed weakness as oil prices faltered further. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tacked on 0.4%. China Merchants Bank extended the previous session's loss amid its plans to raise about funds through a rights offering. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite advanced 1.4% as automakers were boosted by news that car sales in June surged 36% year-over-year.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. According to the latest government statistics, 565,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ending July 4. That is short of the consensus estimate, which called for 603,000 claims. Given that initial claims for the previous week were revised upward to 617,000 from 614,000, the four-week moving average now stands at 606,000. Last week it stood at 615,250. Meanwhile, continuing claims came in at 6.88 million, which is above the 6.71 million continuing claims that were widely expected and up from the previous week's tally of 6.72 million. The latter number was revised upward from 6.70 million. Stock futures have only improved moderately in the wake of the data's release as many participants remain mindful that the better-than-expected initial claims numbers came on a holiday week.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. After several slow news days, participants are getting a flurry of news reports, which began last evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season with its second quarter announcement. The aluminum giant posted an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share, which wasn't as severe as the loss of $0.38 per share that had been widely expected. The company indicated that the average price of aluminum in the second quarter was up 9% from the first quarter and during its conference call stated that auto production, a key market for Alcoa, is growing in China, but that China is not going to be the engine for the western aluminum world. Shares of AA are up more than 6% to $10.05 per share in premarket trading. Several retailers are expected to report monthly same-store sales results this morning. Thus far, many have fallen short of expectations, but investors have yet to hear from the likes of Gap (GPS) and Target (TGT). Weekly jobless claims are due at the bottome of the hour and wholesale inventory data for May is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET). Stock futures currently point to a higher start as momentum from a late, upward push in the prior session carries over.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30.

06:19 am : Nikkei...9291.06...-129.70...-1.40%. Hang Seng...17790.59...+69.50...+0.40%.

06:19 am : FTSE...4170.78...+30.60...+0.70%. DAX...4636.33...+63.70...+1.40%.

Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr