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 Post subject: July 8th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:09 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 1032am est in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF futures. The key WRB provided resistance for one short signal from the VTR strategies.

As for my trading today, ISP connection problems in the p.m. trading session and my trading day was over but I did make a few nice trades in the a.m. trading session.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=238

My Trading Performance: +7.90 Emini TF (formerly ER2) points

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Stocks Stage Late-Day Turnaround
Wall Street erases losses, turns higher as investors gear up for the start of the corporate reporting period.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 8, 2009: 6:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street erased most of its losses by the close Wednesday, as investors set aside concerns about the economy to gear up for the quarterly reporting period, which got underway after the closing bell with Alcoa.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 15 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 1 point, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq (COMP) ended just above unchanged.

Stocks slipped through most of Wednesday as investors continued to worry about the economy and the quarterly reporting period in the aftermath of a big run up. But after touching fresh multi-month lows in the afternoon, stocks bounced back.

After the close, Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) reported a quarterly loss of 26 cents per share as the global recession ate into the price and demand for its precious metals. But the decline was narrower than the loss of 38 cents per share analysts expected, according to Thomson Reuters. Alcoa earned 66 cents a year ago.

Alcoa shares gained 5% in after-hours trading.

But most quarterly reports aren't due until later this month and the results are expected to be fairly grim. Profits for S&P 500 companies are expected to have fallen 36% from a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Reuters estimates.

"Expectations are reasonably low, like they were in the first quarter, so it won't be hard for companies to meet or exceed forecasts," said Linda Duessel, equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

"But the market is looking for evidence in the forecasts that there will be a recovery in the second half," she said. "If any major company says something really negative, we're not going to be prepared."

Stocks have drifted lower since mid-June on worries the economy won't stabilize as quickly as some had hoped. Those declines followed a three-month stock market rally that propelled the S&P 500 off of 12-year lows by about 40%.

"The market is basically going through what it normally does after a big advance off the bottom," said J. Stephen Lauck, president and CEO at Ashfield Capital Partners. "It's going to be bumpy as Wall Street sorts out what's going to happen in the next leg of this economic cycle."

The recent selloff has reflected worries about the economy, punctuated by the weaker-than-expected June jobs report, released last week. Now investors are looking to corporations to provide guidance about their profits and the economic outlook.

Lauck said that the market is nervous about the start of the earnings reporting period and what companies might say about the forecast for the economy and profits.

Google: Tech behemoth Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) said late Tuesday that it will challenge Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)'s dominant Windows by launching a rival operating system called Chrome OS. The system will be available in the second half of 2010.

On the move: Google shares gained, but other big techs slipped including chipmakers Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, Fortune 500) and Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500).

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) were among the big bank decliners.

Among Dow movers, gains in Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) helped offset weakness in bank, tech and telecom stocks.

Market breath was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners nearly two to one on volume of 1.44 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by two to one on volume of almost 2.52 billion shares.

Economy: May consumer credit fell $3.22 billion versus a revised decline of $16.7 billion in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall by $8.8 billion.

The International Monetary Fund forecast global GDP would shrink by 1.4% in 2009, versus its earlier forecast of 1.3%. However, the IMF also lifted its forecast for 2010 growth to 2.5% from 1.9% previously.

G8: The leaders of the world's eight foremost industrialized nations met in L'Aquila, Italy Wednesday to discuss the global economy, climate change and world security issues. In addition to President Obama, the leaders of Japan, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Russia are also due to speak.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.31% from 3.45% late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended lower.

Energy prices slipped, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $2.79 to settle at $60.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell versus the yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $19.80 to settle at $909.30 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : News that G8 leaders believe the world economy still faces significant risks didn't stop stocks from starting the session in higher ground. However, the absence of positive catalysts led sellers to challenge the early advance and send stocks lower before strong Treasury auction results encouraged buyers to step back into the action.

The S&P 500 surrendered early gains and fell more than 1% before paring losses as the results from a $19 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Notes were announced midsession. Strong demand fueled buying in Treasuries and sent the benchmark 10-year Note more than one full point higher and its yield down to 3.3% for the first time since May.

Sellers redoubled their efforts later in the afternoon, but stocks were able to hold their session lows and rebound into the close. The major indices finished a bit mixed, though.

Retailers showed resilience by advancing 2.0%. Family Dollar's (FDO 31.18, +3.43) better-than-expected quarterly earnings results helped win support for the sector ahead of a barrage of monthly same-store sales announcements.

Health care also performed well. It held above the broader market for the entire session as favorable drug trial results from Amgen (AMGN 59.50, +7.27) catapulted biotechs.

Integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 23.54, -0.38) and Verizon (VZ 28.65, -0.53) were primary laggards in the Dow and lagged the S&P 500 for the entire session. The telecom sector finished 3.0% lower, worse than any other major sector.

Financials felt stiff selling pressure, too. The sector had been down approximately 4% at its session low, but was able to pare its losses and finish with a loss of 1.7%. Regional banks (-2.8%) and diversified banks (-1.9%) were laggards in the financial sector, but specialized financial and investment services firms (-5.7%) saw some of the worst losses.

Commodities were knocked sharply lower as gold prices fell 2.1% to $909.20 per ounce, which marks its lowest level in nearly two months. Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell for the sixth straight session by dropping 4.5% to settle near $60.10 per barrel. The sharp drop came as bearish gasoline inventory data overshadowed a larger-than-expected draw in weekly crude oil inventories. More broadly, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.3% and is now down approximately 5% this week.

The drop in commodities prices came despite a moderately weaker U.S. dollar. However, it was the Japanese yen that slid 2.3% against the greenback. That marked one of the worst percentage losses by the yen this year.

Trading volume climbed to its highest level in two weeks as 1.4 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. Trading volume is expected to remain at higher levels now that earnings season is here to attract participants.DJ30 +14.81 NASDAQ +1.00 NQ100 +0.5% R2K -0.9% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/2.50 bln/1782 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/1.44 bln/1972

3:35 pm : There was considerable weakness in commodities again this session. Energy commodities and precious metals were the hardest hit, down 4.0% and 2.7%, respectively.

Crude oil futures were sent lower following an in line inventory report this morning. The futures contracts continued to trend lower thereafter ensuring six consecutive sessions of oil price declines. They closed at $60.09 per barrel, down 4.5%.

Meanwhile, August natural gas futures also traded lower, yet in a relatively tight range. The futures traded between $3.34 and $3.41 per contract for the entire session. They closed at $3.35 per contract, down 1.5%.

Precious metals did not fair much better this session. Gold and silver futures traded markedly lower this morning in the face of a strengthening dollar. Both futures continued to trade lower and were never able to get back to early session highs, which were already in negative territory. August gold closed 2.1% lower at 909.20 per ounce and September silver closed 2.9% lower at 12.84 per ounce.DJ30 -31.29 NASDAQ -7.40 SP500 -7.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 737/2.03 bln/1907 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 748/961 bln/2257

3:00 pm : After testing and holding session lows near 870, the stock market has bounced back. Still, losses remain broad-based as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 4-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Treasuries have increased their gains so that the 10-year Note is now up some 45 ticks, which has pushed its yield below 3.3%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Bond is up more than 2 full points, which has sent its yield down below 4.2%.DJ30 -33.94 NASDAQ -9.08 SP500 -6.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 704/1.84 bln/1921 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 727/862 mln/2286

2:30 pm : Stocks have descended to earlier lows amid renewed selling pressure. Financials are catching the brunt of the effort once again; the sector is now down 3.7%, but not quite at session lows.

Amid the broad-based decline, shares of retailers continue to hold up rather well. As a group, retailers are up 0.9%. Family Dollar (FDO 30.92, +3.17) is a primary leader in the group after the company reported this morning better-than-expected quarterly earnings results and issued an in-line outlook.DJ30 -60.77 NASDAQ -13.57 SP500 -9.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 673/1.68 bln/1935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 652/780 mln/2354

2:00 pm : After climbing back to the unchanged mark from a loss of roughly 0.8%, the Dow is slipping again. Losses are relatively contained, though.

Integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 23.49, -0.43) and Verizon (VZ 28.65, -0.53) are the weakest components in the blue chip index. Big pharma holdings Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 57.04, +0.81) and Merck (MRK 28.19, +0.57) are providing some support, though.DJ30 -28.95 NASDAQ -8.38 SP500 -6.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 747/1.54 bln/1852 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 738/700 mln/2236

1:30 pm : Stocks are quickly paring their losses in the wake of a $19 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Notes, which was met with strong demand. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note more than one full point higher. That has the yield on the Note trading near 3.3%, which is its lowest level since May.

With demand for Treasuries looking solid, stocks have climbed to their best levels since midmorning. Though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain modestly lower for the session, the recent upswing has taken the Dow back to the unchanged mark. DJ30 -4.84 NASDAQ -4.31 SP500 -3.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 791/1.44 bln/1771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 827/649 mln/2130

1:00 pm : Despite starting the session in positive ground, stocks have rolled over and are on their way toward logging another marked, broad-based loss.

The selling effort has become particularly intense against financial stocks, which are down 3.4%. That's more than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Commodities are also trading with broad-based weakness. The CRB Commodity Index is down for the third straight session, or approximately 5% week-to-date.

Crude oil prices are showing particular weakness as they slide lower for the sixth straight session. Oil prices are down 3.7% to $60.60 per barrel in the face of relatively bullish inventory data, which was overshadowed by bearish gasoline inventories. Amid weakness in both the broader equity market and energy prices, energy stocks are trading 1.7% lower.

Gold prices are grappling with their worst single-session percentage loss in three months as the yellow metal sheds 2.5% to trade hands at $905.80 per ounce. The steep price drop for the precious metal comes even though the U.S. dollar is trading only fractionally higher against a basket of major foreign currencies.

However, the greenback is showing considerable strength when compared with the Japanese yen, which is down 2.8% against the dollar. That marks the worst percentage loss by the yen versus the dollar this year.

Treasuries are making solid gains as the benchmark 10-year Note climbs 15 ticks, which has pushed its yield below 3.4% for the first time since May. However, disappointing results from $19 billion auction of 10-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET could disrupt the move by Treasuries and could also fuel additional selling in the stock market.

Health care is the only major sector to trade with a respectable gain. The sector is up 0.9%, thanks to leadership from Amgen (AMGN 60.33, +8.10). Amgen released favorable drug trial results last evening. DJ30 -44.29 NASDAQ -13.98 SP500 -8.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/1.30 bln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 615/578 mln/2324

12:30 pm : Sellers are now focusing their efforts against financial stocks, which are now down 3.5% and leading the broader market to fresh session lows. Within the financial sector, regional banks (-4.2%), diversified banks (-4.4%), and specialized finance companies (-5.8%) are under the most pressure.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only the defensive-oriented utilities sector (+0.1%) and the health care sector (+0.6%) are still in positive territory.DJ30 -61.22 NASDAQ -18.11 SP500 -10.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 597/1.17 bln/1922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 612/506 mln/2301

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with weakness after starting the session with modest gains.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are showing strength. The benchmark 10-year Note is up a healthy 15 ticks. That has pushed its yield down to 3.40%, which is more than 50 basis points below the yield that the Note offered just one month ago. It also marks the Note's lowest yield in more than one month.

The strength in Treasuries comes ahead of a $19 billion auction of 10-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET.DJ30 -38.85 NASDAQ -12.05 SP500 -7.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 667/1.04 bln/1809 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 709/444 mln/2163

11:30 am : The major indices have all extended their recent downturn to trade at session lows with significant losses.

Health care stocks continue to hold up, though. The sector is up 0.9% as biotech (+5.7%) shows strength following strong drug trial results from Amgen (AMGN 60.35, +8.12). The news has given shares of AMGN their best single-session advance by percent this year. Still, shares of AMGN are roughly 10% off of their highs.DJ30 -28.57 NASDAQ -11.99 SP500 -5.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 729/907 mln/1725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 758/384 mln/2077

11:00 am : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are slipping to fresh session lows. The Dow is also turning lower, but has yet to make the same mark as its counterparts.

The decline among the major equity averages is generally broad-based, but losses have become the most intense in the telecom sector, which is now down 2.4%. Shares of AT&T (T 23.70, -0.22) are at a new monthly low since having its target estimate and second quarter earnings estimate lowered by analysts.DJ30 +5.97 NASDAQ -1.68 SP500 -0.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1108/675 mln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/290 mln/1659

10:35 am : Crude oil has traded in negative territory all morning, hovering just around the $62 per barrel level. Crude fell to premarket lows of $61.66 and has since recovered some of those losses, but was trading in a narrow range ahead of this morning's inventory data, which showed a draw of 2.896 million barrels vs. consensus of 2.8 million. Crude fell further and is currently 2.0% lower at $61.70 per barrel, as a larger than expected build in gasoline inventories overshadowed the inventory draw.

Natural gas also hit session lows premarket, but spiked in recent trading activity back to overnight highs. Currently, natural gas is trading 1.1% lower at $3.392.

The dollar was trading higher earlier this morning, but has moved back to the unchanged level. The earlier move higher kept selling pressure on precious metals, which are trading near session lows. August gold is 1.1% lower at $918.60 per ounce, while Sept silver is 2.0% lower at $12.95 per ounce.DJ30 +27.36 NASDAQ +4.31 SP500 +2.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1186/520.7 mln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/216.5 mln/1360

10:00 am : Sellers are picking on semiconductor stocks (-0.8%), which are undercutting the tech sector (-0.3%). The tech sector had been up in the initial minutes of trade, but it has since fallen into the red to trade at its worst level of the morning.

However, large-cap tech stocks are generally providing support to the sector. They had traded with weakness in recent sessions.

The recent uptick in large-cap tech is being led by Google (GOOG 400.75, +4.12), which is preparing to launch a personal computer operating system that will contend with products from Microsoft (MSFT 22.19, -0.34), according to The Wall Street Journal.

Early movers: Trading up -- TRGT +32%, AMGN +15.7%, FDO +12.3%, MSCS +12.2%, BPZ +9.6%, TSCO +9.4%, PLAB +9.1%, BBH +6.5%, DRYS +6.3%, RT +6.2%, CHRS +6.2%, DLTR +6.1%, CHU +5.4%, THC +5.2%, WLT +5.2%; Trading down -- ARYX -51.8%, RTP -14.6%, XNPT -10.5%, ARNA -10.1%, SCLN -7.7%, WBSN -7.4%, SLT -6.8%, ZBRA -6.3%DJ30 +30.98 NASDAQ +3.09 SP500 +3.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1211/336 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/145 mln/1247

09:45 am : Stocks have started the session with modest gains, but their early gyrations suggest that they have yet to set forth on a clear direction.

Nonetheless, shares of retailers are off to a solid start. The group is up 1.6% as Amazon.com (AMZN 77.65, +2.02) benefits from an analyst upgrade.

Materials stocks are also making solid gains in the first few minutes of trading. The sector is up 1.4% even though commodities pries are showing weakness; oil prices were last quoted 1.5% lower at $62.00 per barrel and gold prices are down 1.1% to $919.30 per ounce.

Telecom is currently the only sector trading with a loss. Due to weakness in integrated telcos, the sector is down 0.9%.DJ30 +34.46 NASDAQ +11.17 SP500 +2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/178 mln/815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1507/95 mln/1039

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Stock futures suggest a modest rebound from the previous session's broad-based decline may be in the making, though there haven't been any truly positive catalysts to support the early bid. The willingness to buy comes just ahead of earnings season, which starts with the latest quarterly announcement from Dow component Alcoa (AA) after today's closing bell. With companies providing a clearer picture of how profits are shaping up amid economic doldrums, participants are likely to begin showing more interest and involvement. That should help lift trading volume off of what have recently been anemic levels.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures continue to gyrate, but currently point to a modestly higher start for the major equity averages. However, oil prices are showing considerable weakness for the sixth straight session. Crude oil futures prices are down roughly 1.4% to $62.00 per barrel at the start of pit trading. Oil prices are still up nearly 40% year-to-date, though. Still, the drop in oil prices is dragging energy stocks a bit lower ahead of the opening bell.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. U.S. stock futures have eased back a bit, but weakness is more noticeable in foreign markets. In Britain, the FTSE is down 0.3% as banking giants HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) weigh on trade. According to Dow Jones, an increase in June consumer confidence in the United Kingdom marked the third straight monthly improvement. The improvement came despite news that home prices in the U.K. fell again in June, though at a slower pace than in previous months. As for Germany, Reuters.com reported that May industrial production for the country advanced 3.7% month-over-month. That was the strongest gain in nearly 16 years, according to the report. Germany's DAX is down 0.1% as automaker Daimler (DAI) drives losses. In France, the CAC is off by 0.8%. Though financial outfits Axa (AXA) and BNP Paribas are leading losses, Societe Generale is countering with strength. Asian markets have already concluded another weak session. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.4% in what marked its sixth straight loss. Honda Motor (HMC) and Tokyo Electron were primary laggards again. The Wall Street Journal reported that a Bank of Japan survey indicated that Japanese consumers became less pessimistic about their economy during the second quarter and marked the first improvement since June 2007. Separate reports indicated that Japan's current account surplus for May fell a sharper-than-expected 34.3% from a year earlier as exports remained slow, while imports sank a faster 43.9% due to lower energy prices. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 0.8% as banking issues continued to trade as laggards.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures are up modestly following the previous session's deep, broad-based drop. The improved tone comes in the face of news from Reuters that G8 leaders believe that the global economy continues to face significant risks and may need further help. Participants are gearing up for earnings season, which makes its unofficial start at today's conclusion when Dow component Alcoa (AA) reports its latest quarterly results. Shares of AA are up modestly to $9.45 per share ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, Pepsi Bottling (PBG) and Family Dollar (FDO) already reported their latest quarterly results, which featured better-than-expected earnings. Shares of PBG are essentially unchanged, but FDO is up 6.4% to $29.52 ahead of the opening bell. Separately, Amgen (AMGN) is up a sharp 14.8% to $59.96 per share after disclosing favorable drug results from a recent trial.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9420.75...-227.00...-2.40%. Hang Seng...17721.07...-141.20...-0.80%.

06:21 am : FTSE...4196.81...+9.80...+0.20%. DAX...4606.22...+8.00...+0.20%.

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