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 Post subject: July 7th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 5:47 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

3min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 1003am est in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF futures. The key WRB provided resistance for several Short signals from the VTR and APAOR strategies.

As for my trading today, as recently mentioned in #FuturesTrades, I've switched trading instruments from the S&P 500 Emini ES to the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF futures. Changing trading instruments is done once per year although the time during the year is never the same.

I spent most of the morning watching Emini TF closely along with watching the Michael Jackson funeral on TV.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=237

My Trading Performance: +5.40 Emini TF points

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Recession Fears Slam Stocks
Dow and S&P 500 end at two-month lows on concerns about the duration of the recession. Start of second-quarter reporting period in focus too.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 7, 2009: 6:00 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks plunged Tuesday, falling to two-month lows, as fears that the market has gotten ahead of any economic recovery were ramped up ahead of the start of the quarterly reporting period.

A selloff in commodity prices took its toll on the underlying stocks, adding to the market weakness and worries about the duration of the recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 161 points, or 1.9%, closing at its lowest point since April 28.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 18 points or 2%, closing at its lowest point since May 1.

The Nasdaq (COMP) fell 41 points, or 2.3%, closing at its lowest point since May 27.

Stocks have been inching lower since mid-June as a three-month stock market rally has lost steam.

"Investors are grasping the fact that the recovery, when it does come, may not be as robust as what many hope for," said Robert Siewert, portfolio manager at Glenmede. "While positive GDP would seem likely to return in the third or fourth quarter of this year, investors are starting to look out to what growth will look like next year."

The S&P 500 had spiked 40% on bets that the economy is stabilizing, but a recent bout of mixed news has stalled the advance, culminating with last week's weaker-than-expected June jobs report.

Economic news due later this week includes readings on retail sales, the job market, import and export prices and consumer sentiment.

"This is a very tough recession," said Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Company. "It's not going to be short and shallow like in 2001. We're more than 18 months into it and there doesn't seem to be a catalyst to turn things around."

He said that until the economy shows measurable signs of improvement, stocks are going to be hard-pressed to move much higher.

Underscoring the depth of the recession, a report Tuesday from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed delinquencies on credit cards and other loans jumped to a record 3.23% in the first quarter. That was a modest rise from the previous quarter.

Declines Tuesday were broad-based, with 25 of 30 Dow components sliding. Falling oil prices dragged on Dow oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). The biggest losers were Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).

Profit reports on tap: Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the second-quarter reporting period, which unofficially kicks off after the close Wednesday with Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500).

The aluminum maker is expected to post a loss of 37 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Alcoa earned 65 cents a year ago. Alcoa shares inched higher Tuesday after the company's CEO reportedly said that China's economy has stabilized and that some sectors are coming back.

Next week brings reports from some of Wall Street's biggest financial firms, including Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500).

However, most quarterly financial reports are due out later in the month. S&P 500 companies are expected to have lost nearly 36% versus a year ago, according to the latest figures from Thomson Reuters.

Market participants will be looking to see not only that companies beat forecasts, but that they provide an encouraging outlook for future quarters.

"People are looking at the second half as an inflection point for economic growth," Siewert said. "Anything that would contradict that would be seen as a negative."

G8: The summit of the world's leading industrialized nations begins Wednesday in L'Aquila, Italy. President Obama is expected to speak about the economic outlook. The leaders of Japan, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Russia will also speak.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.51% late Thursday. Bond markets were closed Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets tumbled.

Energy prices slipped, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $1.12 to settle at $62.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell versus the yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $4.80 to settle at $929.10 an ounce.

Market breadth was negative and volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners beat advancers three to one on volume of 770 million shares. On the Nasdaq, losers topped winners three to two on volume of 1.69 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : After holding above key technical levels midway through the session, the S&P 500 rolled over and violated its 200-day moving average amid broad-based selling pressure. In turn, stocks finished near session lows and the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the third time in the past 26 sessions.

The afternoon sell-off was generally an extension of the market's recent weakness, which became more recognizable following last week's disappointing jobs report. Buyers are also showing reluctance ahead of earnings season, which unofficially begins when Alcoa (AA 9.41, +0.15) announces its latest results after Wednesday's closing bell. Alcoa won favor ahead of the report amid reports today that the company is optimistic about demand. The comments came despite persistent macro headwinds.

Concern that economic conditions remain tenuous led President Obama to indicate that a second fiscal stimulus isn't off the table. However, Dow Jones reported that Senate Majority Leader Reid doesn't believe there is any case at this stage for another economic stimulus package.

Meanwhile, the government is expected to unveil its Public-Private Investment Plan (PPIP) tomorrow. According to news sources, BlackRock (BLK 162.17, -4.06), which is the largest money manager by assets under management, will be one of the PPIP managers.

Losses were steep and broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finished lower. Industrials suffered the largest blow by dropping 3.3%.

Energy was a laggard for the entire session and finished 2.5% lower as falling oil prices undercut the sector. Crude oil futures closed 1.8% lower at $62.90 per barrel, which marks the fifth straight decline and the lowest closing price for pit trading in more than one month. Still, crude oil prices are up 40% year-to-date.

Weakness among other commodities caused the CRB Commodity Index to shed 1.5%. The CRB is down nearly 4% so far this week. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings this summer to consider imposing position limits for commodities of finite supply. That would include oil and natural gas.

Despite succumbing to selling pressure, health care was able to limit its losses. The sector closed roughly 0.3% lower after spending nearly all of the session trading with a gain. The relative strength followed reports that hospitals have agreed to contribute funds toward covering the uninsured in the future. The agreement removes an element of uncertainty from the sector amid ongoing efforts to reform health care.

Large-cap tech issues weighed on the Nasdaq for the second straight session and caused the tech-rich index to underperform its counterparts. Semiconductors failed to provide support and shed 2.9% instead. Their decline came despite analyst upgrades for shares of Marvell Tech (MRVL 11.50, +0.10) and Intel (INTC 16.25, -0.29).DJ30 -161.27 NASDAQ -41.23 NQ100 -2.5% R2K -2.0% SP400 -2.2% SP500 -17.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 643/2.06 bln/2004 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 660/1.11 bln/2351

3:40 pm : The CRB Commodity Index was recently quoted 1.5% lower amid broad-based weakness among commodities.

Crude oil prices saw the most selling pressure. They finished lower for the fifth straight session as they dropped 1.8% to $62.90 per barrel in today's pit trade.

Natural gas prices also grappled with selling pressure. Contracts settled at $3.42 each, down 1.9%.

Precious metals were split, though. Gold prices mustered a 0.5% gain to settle at $929.10 per ounce, while silver finished fractionally lower at $13.22 per ounce. DJ30 -137.47 NASDAQ -33.08 SP500 -15.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 834/1.70 bln/1809 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 738/773 mln/2265

3:00 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts and sent stocks to fresh session lows. However, the downturn has stalled as the S&P 500 comes in contact with its 200-day moving average, which stands at roughly 885.DJ30 -119.63 NASDAQ -28.90 SP500 -13.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 910/1.43 bln/1704 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 811/652 mln/2157

2:30 pm : Stocks are drifting lower after climbing to afternoon highs. Still, the major indices are off of their session lows.

Though stocks are showing weakness, the U.S. dollar is showing strength. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.3% as it rebounds from a modest loss that was seen on Monday.

Treasuries are also trading higher. The benchmark 10-year Note is up 11 ticks, which has its yield down to 3.46%.DJ30 -93.33 NASDAQ -23.18 SP500 -9.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/1.32 bln/1560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 896/598 mln/2054

2:00 pm : Optimistic and encouraging comments from Alcoa's (AA 9.59, +0.33) chief executive have won support for shares of the metals and mining giant. According to Bloomberg.com, Klaus Kleinfeld believes that China's economy is out of the woods and that things are bottoming out and coming back in some sectors, including the automotive sector.

However, the materials sector continues to show considerable weakness; materials stocks are down 1.1%.

Alcoa is scheduled to report its latest quarterly results after Wednesday's closing bell. The announcement marks the unofficial beginning to the earnings reporting season.DJ30 -80.26 NASDAQ -23.01 SP500 -8.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 987/1.21 bln/1595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/548 mln/2014

1:30 pm : Stocks have made their way to fresh afternoon highs after the S&P 500 successfully held above its 200-day moving average. This is the second straight session that the benchmark index has come close to the technical level, but garnered support upon reaching it.

Still, losses abound ad six of the 10 major sectors trade with losses of at least 1%.

Health care (+0.5%) remains the only sector in the green, but financial stocks have managed to pare their losses dramatically. The financial sector had been down more than 1%, but is now trading just below the unchanged mark.DJ30 -69.37 NASDAQ -18.90 SP500 -6.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 992/1.12 bln/1565 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 960/505 mln/1939

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 has surrendered the previous session's gains and is trading with widespread weakness. The broad-based declines have led the benchmark index back to its 200-day moving average for the second straight session.

Stocks rebounded from fresh monthly lows in the previous session when the S&P 500 successfully held its 200-day moving average. Participants are watching closely to see whether the stock market will once again hold the technical level, which currently stands at roughly 885. Stocks recently made a modest bounce after the S&P 500 fell as low as 886.6.

Amid this session's broad-based declines, health care is the only major sector to trade with a gain. The sector's 0.5% advance comes amid news that hospitals have agreed to contribute funds toward covering the uninsured. Though the announcement isn't particularly favorable for many health care service companies, it removes an overhanging uncertainty from the sector.

Energy stocks and materials stocks are being pressured considerably for the second straight session. They are down 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, as traders send commodities prices lower. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.2% as oil prices reverse premarket gains to trade 1.9% lower at $62.80 per barrel. DJ30 -101.49 NASDAQ -25.58 SP500 -10.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/1.01 bln/1624 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 782/442 mln/2115

12:30 pm : After recently making a modest bounce, stocks are back at session lows. Losses remain broad-based as roughly 85% of the stocks listed in the S&P 500 trade in the red. Even blue chips are under pressure as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 2-to-1 in the Dow.

Selling pressure has extended into commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.1%. The CRB is now down 5.4% during the course of the past four days. DJ30 -101.34 NASDAQ -24.91 SP500 -10.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 933/928 mln/1602 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 774/405 mln/2108

12:00 pm : While the stock market just bounced off their session lows, each of the major averages are still trading with sharp losses.

Health Care (+0.6%) remains the only major sector trading with gains today following this mornings article in the The Washington Post which stated that hospitals have agreed to contribute $155 billion over 10 years toward the cost of insuring those without health care coverage. Some notable movers within the health insurance sector include Aetna (AET +1.88), Cigna (CI +1.65), and Wellpoint (WLP +1.59%).

Meanwhile, the August crude oil (-2.03%) contract is down for the fifth session in a row and off roughly 15% during this period from intraday high to low. The recent slide to a new session low (62.46) leaves it slightly above support at the 50% retracement of the April-June advance at 62.33. DJ30 -89.3 NASDAQ -22.9 SP500 -9.8 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/824.8/1536 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 810/358.9/2048

11:30 am : Another recent selling effort has taken the major indices to fresh session lows. Energy (-1.9%) and tech (-1.3%) continue to show some of the most weakness.

However, the Semiconductor Index is down a relatively modest 0.5% as shares of Marvell Tech (MRVL 11.93, +0.53) and Intel (INTC 16.73, +0.19) show strength after being upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. Shares of National Semiconductor (NSM 12.30, +0.03) are also up, but their advance has been much more muted.DJ30 -89.48 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 932/700 mln/1539 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/308 mln/1995

11:00 am : The stock market is trading near sesson lows, but it remains above the lows that were registered in the previous session.

This session's weakness is considerable among large-cap tech holdings. That has the Nasdaq 100 trading with a 1.3% loss, worse than any other major sector. Large-cap tech also underperformed in the previous session.DJ30 -84.41 NASDAQ -17.36 SP500 -8.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 917/575 mln/1473 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 771/252 mln/1999

10:30 am : Equity markets opened lower and have extended losses in recent trade.

August crude oil traded modestly higher pre-market, but reversed just before the open. As floor trading began, crude extended its decline, falling sharply into negative territory to early session lows of $62.63. Currently, crude is trading down 1.5% at $63.11 per barrel, just above lows.

August natural gas is tracking crude this morning, also trading just above session lows. In recent trade, natural gas is 1.3% lower at $3.44.

The dollar is flat after trading modestly lower pre-market. Despite little movement in the dollar, precious metals have reversed notably off session highs and are modeslty lower mid-morning. Gold is currently unchanged at $924.30 per ounce, while Sept silver is down 0.5% at $13.175 per ounce. DJ30 -67.56 NASDAQ -13.32 SP500 -5.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 847/425.8 mln/1476 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/186.6 mln/1936

10:00 am : The major indices are extending their losses after a pausing momentarily. Four of the 10 major sectors are now trading with losses of at least 1%.

With losses intensifying, the energy sector is now down 1.8%. Selling has also picked up against oil prices, which are now down 2.0% to $62.75 per barrel. That marks the lowest oil price since late May.

The recent downturn by the broader market has also taken the consumer discretionary sector (-1.0%), industrials sector (-1.0%), and utilities sector (-1.3%) to losses of 1% or more.

Early movers: Trading up -- TRIB +15.5%, GY +14.1%, CHLN +12.3%, KEY-F +8%, JNY +6.6%, RT +6.4%, CEC +6.3%, DDSS +6.3%, LSI +5.5%, HTX +5.4%, VICL +5.2%, ELY +5.2%, IRE +4.5%; Trading down -- HNSN -33.2%, AXL -14.4%, DFS -9.8%, AIG -7.1%, MGI -6.8%, ASTE -6.3%, AVNR -6.3%DJ30 -61.51 NASDAQ -12.10 SP500 -5.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 904/266 mln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 788/126 mln/1840

09:45 am : Stocks are under pressure in the early going. Weakness is widespread as nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade lower.

Losses are steepest among energy stocks (-1.2%). The sector was also the weakest performer in the previous session, when oil prices settled pit trading 4.0% lower. Oil prices had been up in today's early action, but they have since gone on the backslide to trade with a 0.8% loss at $63.50 per barrel.

Health care is the only major sector to trade with a gain. As a group, health care is up 0.6%. The sector's advance comes amid news from The Washington Post that hospitals have agreed to contribute $155 billion over 10 years toward the cost of insuring those without health care coverage. According to the report, industry representatives still have concerns regarding reimbursement rates.DJ30 -40.88 NASDAQ -7.03 SP500 -3.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 9185/140 mln/1206 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/82 mln/1740

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Stock futures have eased back a bit, signaling a slightly lower start to the session. The weaker tone comes amid mixed action in overseas markets and a lack of news flow. That could leave participants focusing on technical factors. Just yesterday, stocks were able to reverse early losses and muster a gain after the S&P 500 held its 200-day moving average. A lack of news flow and trading cues could also keep participants on the sidelines. Trading volume has been anemic in recent weeks as participants look for convincing signs that the economy is mending and companies are making healthy profits. Investors will begin getting updated on the latter issue later this week, when Alcoa (AA) unoffically kicks off earnings season.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. According to Dow Jones, Fox Business reported that President Obama said a second stimulus package could be a possibility. Amid what are still tenuous economic conditions, the U.S. dollar is showing weakness. As such, the Dollar Index is down nearly 0.3%, which has actually helped support commodity prices. Gold prices were recently quoted 0.6% higher at $930.10 per ounce, while oil prices are up 0.5% to $64.35 per barrel.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. In overseas trading, European markets have rebounded modestly from the previous session's losses. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary leader in Germany's DAX, which is up 0.4%. According to Dow Jones, Germany is looking to ammend accounting laws, which could give banks relief when it comes to posting reserves against unrealized losses. In France, the CAC is up 0.2%, though advancing issues and decliners are evenly balanced. BNP Paribas is a primary leader, but France Telecom is a primary laggard. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has advanced 0.7% thus far. Metals and mining outfits Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP) are primary leaders in the British index. Asian markets weren't so fortunate; they extended the previous session's losses as Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3% amid weakness in exporters like Honda Motor (HMC), Tokyo Electronic, and Canon (CAJ). As for Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.7% as bank stocks like China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China faltered.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Overall news flow is slow this morning. The slow flow is expected to continue throughout today's session since there are no market-moving earnings announcements, economic data, or Fed speakers scheduled for today. Given the lack of cues for participants, stock futures currently point to a flat start for the major equity averages.

06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00.

06:17 am : Nikkei...9647.79...-33.10...-0.30%. Hang Seng...17862.27...-117.10...-0.70%.

06:17 am : FTSE...4235.26...+40.40...+1.00%. DAX...4685.99...+33.90...+0.70%.

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