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 Post subject: July 6th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 3:31 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - One particular key change in supply/demand was @ 1316pm est in the S&P 500 Emini ES futures. The key WRB provided support for several Long signals from the VTR and APAOR strategies.

As for my trading today, I was able to exploit that particular key WRB.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=232

My Trading Performance: +14.50 Emini ES points

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Dow Ends In The Black
Wall Street erases bigger losses by the close, as select blue-chip gains counter lower oil prices and economic pessimism.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 6, 2009: 5:53 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks cut losses, ending mixed Monday, as worries about the duration of the recession were tempered by a rally in select blue chips.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 44 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 2 points, or 0.3% and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 9 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks slipped through the early afternoon as investors eyed falling oil prices and a better-than-expected report on the services sector of the economy from the Institute for Supply Management. But a late-session run up in biotechs and consumer issues helped the Dow turn positive.

"With a bounce in the U.S. dollar, money moved out of the volatile commodity area and into more defensive areas like consumer staples," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Stocks slipped Thursday in the last session of a holiday-shortened trading week after a weaker-than-expected jobs report fueled worries about the economy. All financial markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day weekend.

Monday's trading was partly a continued response to Thursday's job report, said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds.

"People are in 'show me' mode," he said. "They want to see hard evidence that the recession is going to end later this year or early next. That jobs report was an indication that the recovery is a little further off than what people expect."

Stocks rallied for three months, with the S&P 500 gaining 40%, on bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing. But stocks have drifted lower in the last three weeks on concerns that the run-up was too much, too soon.

There are no market-moving economic reports on tap for Tuesday.

On the move: Commodity, homebuilding, technology and retail shares were among the big decliners Monday.

On the Dow industrials, Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) led the declines, falling along with the price of oil. But that was countered by strength in heavily-weighted components such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500).

Financial shares Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) gained as well.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 1.14 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by eight to five on volume of 2 billion shares.

GM: General Motors' (GMGMQ) restructuring plan has been approved by a federal judge, clearing the way for the troubled automaker to emerge from bankruptcy.

The automaker will be allowed to sell most of its assets to a new company, which should clear the way for it to exit bankruptcy. The judge's ruling came after a three-day hearing ended Thursday.

The company has received $50 billion in taxpayer funds. In exchange, the U.S. government will get a majority stake in the new GM. Other owners include the Canadian government and the United Auto Workers union.

GM shares fell 14.4%.

Other company news: Pepsi (PEP, Fortune 500) and Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG, Fortune 500) will invest an additional $1 billion in Russia over the next three years in an effort to counter weak domestic sales by boosting profits in emerging markets. The two companies have now invested more than $4 billion in Russia.

Rio Tinto (RTP) sold a division of its Alcan unit for $1.2 billion as it seeks to cut debt after the 2007 purchase of the Canadian aluminum company. The sale of Alcan's packaged food division to U.S.-based Bemis is a cash-and-stock deal.

Oil: Energy prices tumbled, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $2.68 to settle at $64.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the benchmark 10-year note yield to 3.51% from 3.49% late Thursday. Bond markets were closed Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets tumbled and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery settled down $6.70 at $924.30 an ounce.

Economic reports: The Institute for Supply Management's services index rose to 47 in June from 44 in May, which still indicated a contracting sector. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 46.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Thanks to a late push, the S&P 500 and the Dow were able to finish in higher ground after falling to their lowest levels since May and spending most of the session trading with losses.

Stocks started the session lower as sellers moved to extend last week's losses. The selling effort seemed to be supported by weakness in overseas markets. The major indices tried to retrace the early decline with help from a mildly better-than-expected ISM Services Index reading for June, but sellers redoubled their efforts and sent stocks to their lowest levels in more than one month. Nonetheless, the June ISM Service Index came in at 47.0, up from 44.0 the month before. The Index has improved three straight times, but activity in the sector continues to contract since the Index remains below 50.

Leadership from defensive-oriented stocks helped the stock market gradually pare its losses throughout the afternoon. In the end, health care edged up 0.8%, utilities finished up by 1.0%, and consumer staples spiked 1.5%.

Telecom tacked on 0.7% in the face of reports that the Department of Justice has begun a review to determine whether telecom giants like AT&T (T 24.80, +0.21) and Verizon (VZ 30.36, +0.18) abused their market power in recent years. AT&T stated it is unaware of any probe, according to CNBC.

Financial stocks were able to make a strong, late run. The sector finished 0.8% higher after being down more than 1%.

Meanwhile, basic materials and energy stocks spent the entire session showing considerable weakness. Materials stocks finished 0.7% lower as steel stocks (-3.4%) and diversified metals and miners (-7.7%) fell. Shares of Alcoa (AA 9.26, -0.60) dropped to its lowest level in more than one month. Alcoa is scheduled to report its latest quarterly results after Wednesday's closing bell. The announcement marks the unofficial beginning of the second quarter earnings reporting season.

Materials stocks faltered as commodities prices came down, which caused the CRB Commodity Index to fall 2.3% in its worst single-session percentage decline in two weeks. Commodity prices were pressured in early trading as reports that the U.S. dollar's status as the primary global reserve currency remains intact helped bolster the greenback. The dollar reversed course throughout the session, though, and the Dollar Index finished 0.1% lower.

Though the dollar flopped, crude oil prices were unable to pare losses and logged their fifth straight decline instead. Crude oil prices finished pit trading 4.0% lower at $64.05 per barrel. The energy sector finished 1.2% lower, worse than any other sector.

Tech was the only other major sector to finish lower. Due to weakness in large-cap tech, the sector shed 0.4%. Weakness in large-cap tech shares caused the Nasdaq to underperform the other headline indices for the entire session.

Trading volume remains low, though not as low as last Thursday when the lightest trading volume of the year was set. Only 1.1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session.

Meanwhile, the Volatility Index jumped 3.8%. It was up 6% late in the session and had been just a couple of points shy of its 50-day moving average.DJ30 +44.13 NASDAQ -9.12 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.6% SP400 -0.5% SP500 +2.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/2.00 bln/1656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1233/1.14 bln/1774

3:30 pm : The market has slowly trended upward since recording session lows in the mid morning. The major averages are currently sitting near session highs.

Energy is still displaying considerable weakness. Energy is the session's worst performing sector, down 1.9%. Energy commodities are down 3.7%. Crude oil futures are no exception. The August crude oil contracts closed down 4.0% at $64.05 per barrel. Relative strength in the space, however, is coming from Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO 78.43 +0.73). The shares were the beneficiary of a price target increase from an analyst at Credit Suisse this morning.

Natural gas futures also faltered during the pit trade. The August contracts fell 3.6% to $3.49 per contract.

Precious metals also traded lower this session. August gold futures fell 0.7% to $924.30 per ounce as September silver futures fell 1.3% to $13.24 per ounce.DJ30 +15.49 NASDAQ -14.35 SP500 -1.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 863/1.61 bln/1749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1047/800 mln/1966

3:00 pm : Despite reports that the Department of Justice has begun a review to determine whether companies like AT&T (T 24.69, +0.10) and Verizon (VZ 30.28, +0.10) abused their market power in recent years, telecom stocks have mustered a slight gain. Telecom, as a group, is up 0.2%.

Telecom is one of several defensive-oriented sectors to trade higher this session. Health care (+0.5%) is also up, as is the utilities sector (+0.5%). Consumer staples are making the best gains, though; the sector is up 1.5%, near its session high.DJ30 +19.50 NASDAQ -16.56 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 838/1.50 bln/1782 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/731 mln/1973

2:30 pm : The Dow is dancing along the unchanged mark, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain in the red.

Energy stocks remain a primary point of weakness for the broader market. The sector is down 2.0% as oil and gas explorers (-3.6%) and oil and gas equipment companies (-2.7%) weigh on the group. DJ30 +2.11 NASDAQ -19.66 SP500 -3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 798/1.38 bln/1802 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 972/666 mln/2024

2:00 pm : Led by ConAgra (CAG 19.30, +0.74) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 74.29, +2.20), consumer staples stocks have climbed to a 1.3% gain. The consumer staples sector is currently putting together the best gain of any major sector in the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, the broader market is taking a breather as it pulls back a bit following a strong, upward run.

Treasuries are seeing some support after showing weakness in the early going. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up modestly after trading some 10 ticks into the red earlier.DJ30 +3.10 NASDAQ -20.92 SP500 -3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/1.28 bln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 977/615 mln/2010

1:30 pm : The major indices have gone on an upward push, which has put the Dow Jones Industrial Average in positive territory and taken the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their best levels since this morning.

The Dow's relative strength stems from gains in shares of consumer finance company American Express (AXP 23.46, +1.19), consumer staples giant Procter & Gamble (PG 52.20, +1.09), and big pharma outfit Merck (MRK 27.83, +0.82).DJ30 +14.05 NASDAQ -18.21 SP500 -1.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 814/1.21 bln/1752 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1003/580 mln/1964

1:00 pm : The ISM Services Index reading for June has been the only major news item today. The index came in at a slightly better-than-expected 47.0, up from 44.0 the month before. Since the latest reading remains below 50, activity in the nonmanufacturing sector is contracting, but the recent pickup suggests the rate of contraction has slowed since this is the third straight month that the ISM Services Index has increased.

Stocks had already pared their initial losses ahead of the report, but climbed to their best levels of the morning following the announcement. However, when stocks failed to break into positive ground sellers redoubled their efforts and sent the S&P 500 to a fresh monthly low, near 885. Though stocks have since found support since reaching session lows this morning, weakness remains considerable among basic materials and energy stocks.

Materials stocks are currently down 1.7% as a stronger dollar weighs down commodities prices, sending the CRB Commodity Index 1.8% lower. The dollar's strength follows reports that the greenback will remain the primary global reserve currency.

Energy stocks are off by 2.3%, worse than any other major sector, as crude oil prices trade 3.8% lower at $64.20 per barrel, which is near the monthly lows that crude prices set earlier in trading. Still, crude prices are up 44% year-to-date.

Large-cap tech stocks are also trading with weakness. Though tech (-1.3%) represents the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, it is having the most dramatic impact on the Nasdaq. In turn, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the other headline indices for the entire session.

This session's overall weakness comes as an extension of the declines registered late last week. The downbeat bias has also been seen overseas, where most of the major indices have all concluded the week's first trading session with sizable losses.DJ30 -21.47 NASDAQ -23.31 SP500 -5.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 716/1.09 bln/1820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 865/526 mln/2093

12:30 pm : Action continues to bend toward a negative bias as the major indices remain in the red.

Weakness is particularly intense among small- and mid-cap stocks, which are down a respective 1.6% and 1.5%, according to the Russell 2000 and the S&P 400.DJ30 -25.32 NASDAQ -22.95 SP500 -5.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 698/1.01 bln/1838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 844/482 mln/2090

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 and the Dow are now near the unchanged mark for the session, but the Nasdaq continues to be a laggard, still down over 1%. Since the release of the June ISM Services Index data, news flow and volume has been lighter than typical, but the major averages have steadily pushed higher over the past hour.

Among the lagging sectors today, energy (-2.4%) has been the most notable. Utilities (+0.22%) were a source of strength earlier in the morning, but are currently selling off as the market continues to push higher, and out of typical "defensive" stocks. DJ30 -32.12 NASDAQ -23.24 SP500 -5.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/908.8/1816 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 846/433.0/2061

11:30 am : The stock market is extending its rebound, but is still trading with a sizable loss. Materials stocks (-1.8%) and energy stocks (-2.6%) continue to be a heavy drag on action. Tech (-1.0%) is also weighing things down since it is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight.

Weakness among tech issues is causing the tech-rich Nasdaq to underperform its counterparts. Specifically, Microsoft (MSFT 23.03, -0.34), Apple (AAPL 137.31, -2.71), and Google (GOOG 404.35, -4.14) are primary laggards in the Nasdaq Composite.DJ30 -36.81 NASDAQ -20.86 SP500 -5.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 700/797 mln/1778 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 828/386 mln/2065

11:00 am : The S&P 500 recently extended its losses to the 885 level, which hasn't been seen since late May. Stocks have since made a modest rebound, but weakness persists.

Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only the defensive-oriented consumer staples (+0.7%) and utilities (+0.6%) sectors are still in positive ground.

Dow Jones reported that according to the German Financial Minister, the U.S. dollar will keep its role as the leading reserve currency. The comments coincide with earlier reports that indicate the dollar will remain the primary currency for many more years. The Dollar Index is currently up 0.2%.DJ30 -55.10 NASDAQ -23.20 SP500 -8.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 617/679 mln/1822 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 741/329 mln/2113

10:35 am : Equity markets have fallen back to opening lows in recent trade. As for commodities, energy is showing the most weakness.

August crude oil continues trading in negative territory this morning, but has recovered some of its losses. Currently, crude is trading 3.8% lower at $64.21 per barrel, off morning lows of $63.40.

Natural gas also remains lower this morning. After opening near session lows, natural gas has also recovered a portion of its losses, but remains 4.1% lower at $3.47.

The dollar continues to show strength this morning, keeping precious metals modestly lower. August gold is 0.9% lower at $922.30 per ounce, while September silver is 1.5% lower at $13.21 per ounce.DJ30 -47.31 NASDAQ -17.94 SP500 -6.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 573/389.5 mln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 745/256.4 mln/2014

10:00 am : The major indices remain in negative territory, though losses have diminished from their initial levels.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is surrendering to some selling efforts. Ahead of the opening bell the greenback was up 0.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but it is now up a modest 0.1%.

The June ISM Services Index came in at 47.0, which is better than the 46.0 that was widely expected. The latest reading also marked an improvement from the 44.0 that was registered in May.

Early movers: Trading up -- PLX +18.6%, ERY +9.4%, SCO +8.1%, CETV +7.3%, DTO +7.2%, DUG +6.6%, GERN +5.6%, CATY +5.5%, DNDN +5.5%, SMN +5.3%, RZ +5.2%, SNWL +4.9%, WTNY +4.7%, ZSL +4.7%; Trading down -- RGS -17.6%, MGI -13.6%, ERX -10.1%, PACR -9.3%, SPPI -9.2%, RJET -9.1%, PDS -9%, GTE -8.8%, SGY -8.8%, UCO -8.2%, GMXR -8.2%, KWK -8%, IAF -7.9%, NG -7.9%, DXO -7.8%, CHK -7.7%, SSL -7.7%, PCX -7.6%, COG -7.6%, CNQ -7.6%, PGH -7.5%, HERO -7.5%DJ30 -9.83 NASDAQ -9.49 SP500 -2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/258 mln/1476 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 926/157 mln/1793

09:45 am : Stocks opened the session markedly lower, but they have been able to pare their losses.

Weakness remains considerable among energy stocks, though. The sector, as a whole, is down 2.8%. The sharp, downward move comes as oil prices slide 4.1% to $64.00 per barrel. Oil prices were actually down more than 4.5% ahead of pit trading.

Meanwhile, shares of retailers are trading appreciably higher. As a group, retailers are up 1.4%. That has helped the consumer discretionary sector climb to a 0.8% gain.DJ30 -37.56 NASDAQ -5.73 SP500 -2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 850/150 mln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 868/103 mln/1765

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. According to futures, stocks look as if they will extend last week's loss, which was worsened by a disappointing jobs report last Thursday. Disappointment related to the jobs report has also led to selling in foreign markets as concerns regarding the pace of a global economic recovery threaten confidence among global participants. In turn, many of the major markets in Europe and Asia have lost at least 1% Monday; India's Sensex sank nearly 6% as reports that the country's deficit could be stretched to an even greater percentage of the country's GDP exasperated selling pressure. A disappointinting June ISM Service Index (10:00 AM ET) could further undermine investor sentiment. Concern over economic conditions is also hampering commodities prices this morning -- a stronger U.S. dollar isn't helping the case for commodities either, though. The greenback's gain comes amid reports that its status as a primary global reserve currency will likely remain intact for years to come.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80. News flow remains slow, but participants will get a nugget of data when the ISM Service Index for June is released later this morning (10:00 AM ET). The consensus estimate calls for a reading of 46.0, up from 44.0 in May. There are no other economic reports for today, nor are there any Fed speakers. The U.S. dollar continues to display its strength, especially against the British pound, which is down 1.1% against the greenback. The greenback is currently up 0.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Foreign stocks are trading lower amid widespread weakness. Specifically, Germany's DAX is down 1.5% as the bourse's declining issues outnumber its advancers by nearly 5-to-1. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary laggard among the components. In France, the CAC is down 1.4% as energy giant Total (TOT) follows oil prices lower. Societe Generale is also down materially, even though the The Wall Street Journal reported that company expects a small quarterly profit. Britain's FTSE is off by 1.3% as energy and materials companies falter. BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are weighing the most heavily on the British exchange. Action wasn't any better in Asia, where Japan's Nikkei shed 1.4% as Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electronics, and TDK proved to be a drag. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 1.2%. Banks were primary laggards as China Construction Bank, HSBC (HBC), and Bank of China had the most adverse impact on the session. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.9%, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite was able to advance 1.2%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Following a long, holiday weekend market participants are pushing stock futures lower, which suggests a downward start for the major indices could be in order. The relatively downbeat bias comes amid a lack of overall news flow, though there are reports that suggest the U.S. dollar will most likely maintain its status as a primary world currency for many years and won't be discussed in the G-8 meeting. The greenback is up solidly this morning and is pressuring commodity prices as a result. In particular, oil futures prices are down 4.5% to $63.75 per barrel in electronic trading; oil prices haven't been so low since the end of May.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30.

06:29 am : Nikkei...9680.87...-135.20...-1.40%. Hang Seng...17979.41...-224.00...-1.20%.

06:29 am : FTSE...4187.57...-48.70...-1.20%. DAX...4634.14...-74.10...-1.60%.

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