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 Post subject: July 2nd Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jul 03, 2009 12:23 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min All Session Chart - The key change in supply/demand was @ 0832am est and the Emini ES along with other key markets did not challenge that price action for the remainder of the trading day.

As for my trading today, I wanted to be more aggressive but again I played it safe (conservative). However, today's mid-day trading session was very similar to Tuesday's mid-day trading session...a very tight trading range trying to sucker us into overtrading.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=230

My Trading Performance: +9.50 Emini ES points

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Jobs Report Slams Stocks
Wall Street gets pummeled after June employment report. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down sharply.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 2, 2009: 5:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Thursday, with the Dow losing 212 points, after a worse-than-expected jobs report hammered hopes that the economy is close to stabilizing.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 212 points, or 2.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 27 points, or 2.9% and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 49 points, or 2.7%.

The New York Stock Exchange extended trading until 4:15 p.m. ET, so as to allow customers to put through orders that were impacted by system irregularities. The NYSE did not specify what the irregularities were.

Stocks tumbled at the open and remained in the red throughout the session as investors considered the broader implications of the dismal June jobs report.

"The report was kind of a rude awakening and unfortunately I think there's more to come," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

"People are realizing that the stock market rally doesn't mean the economy is coming back."

Since bottoming at a 12-year low, the S&P 500 had surged over 40% through June 11. But in the weeks since then, it has lost 5% of that.

Jobs report: Employers cut 467,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, after cutting 322,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That made June the first month in four in which job losses rose from the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 365,000 job losses.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 9.5% from 9.4%, short of forecasts for an increase to 9.6%.

"The report was terrible," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc."It's telling us that there is a lot more pain than people realize that we are going to have to get through before there can be a recovery."

On the move: Declines were broad based, with all 30 Dow stocks falling, led by oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) were the other big losers.

Economically sensitive trucking and railroad stocks plunged, dragging down the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average by 3.7%.

Financial shares tumbled, including Dow components American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was negative and volume was light with Wall Street pros checking out early for the holiday. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by over four to one on volume of 733 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers five to one on volume of 1.95 billion shares.

All financial markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Weak start to new quarter: Stocks climbed Wednesday on the first day of the third quarter as investors found some encouragement in the day's housing and manufacturing reports. But the advance lost steam Thursday, with the jobs report giving investors a reason to retreat after a strong second quarter.

In the April-through-June period, the S&P 500 gained 15.2%, its best quarter in more than a decade. The Dow rose 11% and the Nasdaq 20%. Both indexes posted their best quarters since the second of 2003. Stocks rallied on hopes that the economy was starting to stabilize after the six months of panic that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September.

But lately, stocks have churned on concerns that the market got ahead of itself.

Economic news: Normally a market mover, the weekly jobless claims report was overshadowed by the June payrolls report.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 614,000 last week from a revised 630,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported. Economists thought claims would fall to 615,000.

May factory orders rose 1.2%, the Commerce Department reported, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.9%. Factory orders rose a revised 0.5% in April.

Company news: In deal news, Exelon (EXC, Fortune 500) has sweetened its hostile takeover offer for rival power generator NRG Energy (NRG, Fortune 500). The all-stock offer is $8 billion versus the previous offer of $7 billion.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) will take an 18% equity stake in biotech Elan (ELN) in exchange for a $1 billion investment. J&J will also buy Elan's share of its Alzheimer's disease treatment program with Wyeth.

U.S.-traded shares of Elan gained 11% in active New York Stock Exchange trading.

Commodities: Energy prices tumbled, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $2.37 to $66.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $10.60 to settle at $930.70 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the benchmark 10-year note yield to 3.5% from 3.53%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : A disappointing jobs report prompted sellers to knock stocks sharply lower in the first few minutes of trading. Stocks then locked into an extremely narrow trading range until the S&P 500 slipped below the psychologically significant 900 level in the final half-hour of trading.

Following an uninspiring finish to the previous session, stocks had already been showing weakness ahead of the government's latest jobs report, which was released shortly before the opening bell. However, sellers became emboldened when the June Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 467,000 jobs were lost last month. That marked pickup from the 322,000 jobs that were lost in May, and topped the 365,000 losses that were widely expected.

Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate now stands at 9.5%, which isn't quite as bad as the 9.6% that was expected, but it still marks a 25-year high. According to Reuters, the White House expects unemployment rate to climb to 10% in next two to three months. Average weekly hours came in at a slightly worse-than-expected 33.0. Since hours often lead payrolls and employers are cutting back hours suggests that hiring remains a long ways off, which will damper consumer spending and hopes of a consumer-led economic recovery.

May factory orders made a surprisingly strong 1.2% increase, which bested the 0.9% increase that had been forecast. The stock market attempted to pare some of its losses following the orders announcement, but the disappointing jobs report dominated headlines and overshadowed the encouraging orders data.

Since U.S. market's are closed Friday in observance of Independence Day, this session's decline gave stocks their third straight weekly loss. During that time, stocks have shed more than 5%. This session's weakness was widespread as declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 20-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Losses were steepest among energy and financial stocks. They both finished 3.7% lower. Energy was hampered by a 3.7% drop in crude oil prices, which closed at $66.73 per barrel. Crude has fallen for three consecutive sessions. Meanwhile, financials were severely undercut by losses among insurers.

Elan (ELN 7.66, +0.66) was one of the few stocks to post a gain this session. The company garnered support following the announcement that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.97, -1.10) will acquire certain drug assets from Elan and will invest $1 billion in Elan through an affiliate.

In other corporate news, Exelon (EXC 49.03, -2.53) has increased its exchange offer to acquire NRG Energy (NRG 24.59, -1.46) by 12%. The increase was widely expected and neither stock was able to attract buyers amid the session's broad-based selling effort.

Trading volume was extremely light ahead of the long, holiday weekend. Hardly 700 million shares traded hands on the NYSE in what was the most thinly traded session this year. That's even after trading had been extended by 15 minutes in order to address system irregularities. DJ30 -218.94 NASDAQ -49.20 NQ100 -2.4% R2K -3.8% SP400 -3.2% SP500 -26.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 447/1.93 bln/2214 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 538/685 mln/2435

3:30 pm : The equity markets have pushed to fresh session lows after trading in a very narrow range for most of the session. The major indices have traded on anemic volume, as well. A strong dollar coupled with a concerted selling effort in the equity markets did not bode well for commodities this session. The dollar is currently up 0.7%.

Bullish inventory data was not enough to support natural gas prices this session. Following the inventory data, natural gas futures spiked to near the unchanged level. This spike following the data did not last, though, as natural gas futures headed lower for the remainder of the session and closed down a staggering 4.5% at $3.62 per contract.

Crude oil contracts also sold off relentlessly. The August contracts closed not far off the session lows of $66.50 per barrel. They closed down 3.7% at $66.73 per barrel.

Both gold and silver futures got hammered at the open of the pit trade. Both also trended modestly higher throughout the session, but struggled to net appreciable gains off the session lows recorded at the open. August gold futures closed down 1.1% at $930.50 per ounce as September silver futures closed down 2.5% at $13.41 per ounce.DJ30 -196.19 NASDAQ -48.22 SP500 -24.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 427/1.57 bln/2218 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 522/580 mln/2448

3:00 pm : Corporate news flow has been slow this session. However, Exelon (EXC 49.42, -2.14) did announce this morning that it has increased its exchange offer to acquire NRG Energy (NRG 24.76, -1.29). Exelon is now offering to exchange for each NRG share 0.545 of EXC shares. The exchange rate marks a 12% increase over the initial exchange offer of 0.485. However, as of the prior session's close, shares of EXC are down roughly 5.5% since the initial offer was made back in October.

Following this morning's announcement, Exelon affirmed its second quarter and full-year earnings guidance, which call for earnings from $0.95 to $1.05 per share in the second quarter and earnings from $4.00 to $4.30 per share for the year. DJ30 -179.04 NASDAQ -42.81 SP500 -21.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 464/1.43 bln/2177 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 552/522 mln/2418

2:30 pm : Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, energy is faring the worst. The sector is currently down 3.2% as it moves toward its worst single-session performance since a 4.6% drop in the early part of last week.

Though still steep, losses are least severe in the consumer staples sector, which is down 1.3%. General Mills (GIS 58.55, +0.37) is providing support to the sector for the second straight session. Its strength started in the prior session following the company's announcement of better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat forecast for fiscal 2010. Shares of GIS are at their highest level since February.DJ30 -180.85 NASDAQ -43.26 SP500 -21.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 452/1.34 bln/2171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 541/480 mln/2417

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 remains confined to a narrow trading range that is trending just above the 900 level. The benchmark index has yet to violate the psychologically significant line, though.

Given today's losses, the S&P 500 is on track for a weekly loss of 1.9%. That would mark the third straight weekly decline for the stock market. This week's decline is currently worse than the Dow's week-to-date loss of 1.3%, but not quite as bad as the Nasdaq's 2.0% loss.

Small-cap stocks have suffered the most this week. In turn, the Russell 2000 is on track for a weekly loss of 2.5%. Most of that decline is coming from this session's 3.3% loss.DJ30 -179.11 NASDAQ -44.04 SP500 -21.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 451/1.25 bln/2142 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 503/433 mln/2431

1:30 pm : The major indices continue to trade with steep losses.

Market breadth is negative, with decliners outpacing advancers by 11-to-2 on the NYSE and by 5-to-1 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 -171.10 NASDAQ -42.78 SP500 -20.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 439/1.15 bln/2146 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 453/393 mln/2460

1:05 pm : A negative tone for the session was set in pre-market trade when June Nonfarm payrolls showed a much steeper than expected loss. Specifically, Nonfarm Payrolls came in at -467,000 vs the -367,000 consensus. The national unemployment rate is now at a staggering 9.5%, although this was slightly better than the 9.6% expectation. Optimists had hoped that the trend toward smaller declines would produce a decline of about 300,000 this month -- but companies do not hire/fire based on such trends. Further large payroll declines are likely. Until weekly unemployment claims drop below 400,000, payrolls are going to continue declining.

The payroll data wasn't much better. June average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis was flat versus a +0.1% consensus, and average weekly hours also came in slightly worse than expectations at 33.0. Hours tend to lead payrolls and the fact that employers are cutting back hours suggests that hiring is a long ways off. Also negative from an economic standpoint is that fact that hourly earnings in June were flat. This indicates that consumer purchasing power is falling (when combined with lower payroll levels).

Not all the economic data was bad this morning, however. May factory orders surprised to the upside at +1.2% vs the +0.9% expectation. Orders had plunged in December and January, but have now stabilized over the past four months. This is a good sign that suggests industrial production may stabilize, but orders still remain below about 20% the levels of last year. The stock market saw a modest rebound following the release of this factory order data, but it was short-lived, as the dour unemployment data has been dominating the news, and the sentiment today.

Since the release of the economic data, news flow has slowed considerably, as has volume. Volume will likely continue to drop off as the afternoon wears on, heading into the holiday weekend. The major averages have generally moved in a sideways fashion for most of the morning without a significant catalyst to make a move in either direction. Losses have been broad based and there isn't a single sector putting in meaningful gains today. The weakest sectors include retail, energy, and industrials. Crude oil and natural gas both have been down sharply as well, although natural gas pushed higher following inventory data that showed a build of 70 bcf vs. an expected build of 75 bcf. DJ30 -176.5 NASDAQ -44.69 SP500 -21.6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 424/1072.7/2132 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/356.8/2450

12:30 pm : The market has been moving in a tight range over the past hour as there hasn't been much to move the major indices in either direction following the disappointing June Payroll and jobs report from this morning.

While losses in equities are broad based, virtually across every sector, treasuries have been favored today with the 10-year Note putting in solid gains on worries that an economic recovery may take longer than expected.DJ30 -168.8 NASDAQ -43.5 SP500 -20.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 432/992.3/2095 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 412/321.6/2463

12:00 pm : The major averages have drifted even lower over the past 30 minutes, with the Dow and S&P 500 both hitting session lows just minutes ago. Each of the major indices have since bounced slightly higher, but are still logging significant losses.

The S&P 500 is near the key 900 level, although it has yet to breach it. Additionally, volume has been slowing, and will likely continue to drop off ahead of the long Fourth of July weekend. DJ30 -176.9 NASDAQ -45.1 SP500 -21.4 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 390/900.8 mln/2103 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 381/287.6 mln/2464

11:30 am : After a fairly busy morning in terms of economic data releases, news flow has slowed considerably, and the stock market remains solidly in the red. Losses are broad based without any sector trading meaningfully higher. For the NYSE, there are almost seven losers for every winner.

Following yesterday's weakness, energy (-2.8%) and retail (-3.6%) again are two areas that are being hit especially hard. Crude oil and natural gas have both been trading with sharp losses this morning. DJ30 -167.7 NASDAQ -41.3 SP500 -19.4 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 131.3/786.6/631.1 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 18.9/246.5/226.3

11:05 am : The S&P 500 recently came within a couple of points of the 900 level, but has since begun a gradual ascent. Still, weakness remains widespread.

Only a handful of companies are making advances this session. Among them, Elan (ELN 8.02, +1.02) is actually up considerably amid news that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 56.22, -0.85) and Elan have reached a definitive agreement whereby Johnson & Johnson will aquire certain drug assets from Elan. Johnson & Johnson will also invest $1 billion in Elan through an affiliate. DJ30 -166.72 NASDAQ -42.57 SP500 -19.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 355/702 mln/2085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 310/219 mln/2466

10:30 am : Commodities are showing broad weakness as the dollar is trading higher in early morning trade.

August crude began selling off pre-market and extended losses at the open. Crude is trading 3.8% lower at $66.66 per barrel, near session lows of $66.62.

Natural gas is tracking crude this morning and is also trading near morning lows. Currently, natural gas is 1.8% lower at $3.73 following inventory data, which showed an inventory build.

Precious metals are showing morning weakness. August Gold is 1.3% lower at $928.80 per ounce, while September silver is trading 2.9% lower at $13.37.DJ30 -177.8 NASDAQ -45.0 SP500 -20.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 294/501.2 mln/2079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 249/172.7 mln/2488

10:00 am : The major indices have pulled up a bit from their morning lows in the wake of some pleasing factory orders data.

Factory orders for May increased 1.2%, which is better than the 0.9% increase that was expected and up from the previous month's 0.5% increase.

Losses in the equity market remain considerable, though.DJ30 -157.04 NASDAQ -42.06 SP500 -17.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 277/317 mln/2013 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 254/123 mln/2426

09:45 am : Stocks are being whacked with a wave of selling pressure. The decline is steep and broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade with losses of 1% or more.

Materials and energy stocks have encountered the worst of the selling effort. The two sectors are both down 2.5% as commodities prices come under pressure and crude oil prices slide for the third straight session. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.8% and crude oil futures are down 3.4% to $66.93 per barrel, which is its lowest point in more than one week.DJ30 -151.07 NASDAQ -38.87 SP500 -18.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 257/173 mln/1940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 202/80 mln/2410

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50. A downward bias to premarket trading is weighing on stock futures. That has the major indices moving toward a downward start. The dour tone follows a rather unimpressive finish to the prior session, weakness in overseas action, and a rather disconcerting U.S. employment report. According to the government's official nonfarm payrolls report for June, unemployment now stands at 9.5%, which isn't quite as bad as the 9.6% that was expected. However, it is the highest level seen in more than 25 years. What's more, actual job losses during the month exceeded expectations and average weekly hours worked continue to trend lower.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. Trading overseas has been underscored by weakness. In Germany, the DAX is down 2.5% as declining issues outnumber advancers by 4-to-1 in the German bourse. Siemens (SI), Allianz (AZ), and Volkswagen are leading losses. Weakness in the broader market, soft monthly sales, and Credit Suisse's move to cut its stance on the auto industry have made for a brutal combination against shares of Volkswagen. In France, the CAC is off 1.9% as financial outfits Axa (AXA), BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale weigh on trade. Credit Agricole, however, is providing support. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has fallen 1.6%. Banking outfits Standard Chartered and Barclays (BCS) are trading higher, but their leadership is being undermined by losses in nearly 90% of the FTSE components. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is currently a primary laggard. The losses in Europe come amid news that the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the Euro zone hit a 10-year high of 9.5% in May. The heightened unemployment rate comes amid persistently challenging global economic conditions, which have prompted the European Central Bank to leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected. According to ECB President Trichet, economic activity over remainder of year is likely to remain weak, but declines will be less than in the first quarter. A recovery is expected in mid-2010. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.4% and Japan's Nikkei closed 0.6% lower. Canon (CAJ) and Honda Motor (HMC) slid, but Hitachi (HIT) jumped on a report it will boost production of lithium ion batteries for hybrid cars. Steel stocks found support amid relatively optimistic broker comments. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 1.1% lower after shedding early gains. HSBC Holdings (HBC) was a laggard. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was able to advance 1.7%. PetroChina (PTR) and Sinopec (SNP) jumped.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. Stock futures have weakened further following the release of the latest jobs data. According to the government's official Nonfarm Payrolls report, 467,000 jobs were lost in June and the unemployment rate reached 9.5%, which is the highest level since August 1983. Economists, on average, had expected job losses to total 365,000 and unemployment to come in at 9.6%. Meanwhile, data for May was revised higher to reflect 322,000 job losses for that month. Given the revisions to the May data and the job losses for June, monthly job losses averaged 431,000 during the second quarter. On a similar note, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 totaled 614,000, which is in stride with the consensus forecast for 615,000 initial claims. The previous week's claims were revised slightly higher to 630,000. Continuing claims keep pulling back from record highs by coming in at 6.70 million, down from the previous week's upwardly revised 6.76 million. The latest continuing claims were expected to total 6.74 million.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00.

U.S. stock futures are trading lower ahead of the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. On average, economists predict that 365,000 jobs were lost in June and that the unemployment rate will climb to 9.6% from 9.4%. Weekly jobless claims are also due at 8:30 AM ET, but factory orders for May are due later this morning (10:00 AM ET). European stocks are also showing weakness as France's CAC, Germany's DAX, and Britain's FTSE all trade lower in broad-based fashion. According to the Associated Press, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the Euro zone during May came in at a 10-year high of 9.5%. The heightened unemployment rate comes amid persistently challenging global economic conditions, which have prompted the European Central Bank to leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected.

06:39 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00.

06:39 am : Nikkei...9876.15...-63.80...-0.60%. Hang Seng...18178.05...-200.70...-1.10%.

06:39 am : FTSE...4309.01...-31.70...-0.70%. DAX...4827.22...-78.20...-1.60%.

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