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 Post subject: July 1st Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:28 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

3 Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1018am est via providing support that the market tested often along with providing a few trade signals that produced only small profits before Emini ES headed south again.

Tough trading day via not getting much out of the effort I put into the trading day.

Trading Tip: Market breadth indices provides clues about range days as it is occurring.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=228

My Trading Performance: +3.00 Emini ES points

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Stocks Rise On Recovery Hopes
Wall Street gains as investors welcome signs of improvement in housing and manufacturing reports.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 1, 2009: 5:56 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks climbed Wednesday, with investors starting off the third quarter on a positive note, after reports on manufacturing and housing added to bets that the pace of the recession is slowing.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 57 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 4 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) climbed 11 points, or 0.6%.

Stocks ended an otherwise strong second quarter with losses Tuesday on a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and falling oil prices. But investors moved back into stocks Wednesday after manufacturing and housing reports showed the pace of the contraction in those sectors is easing.

"The market is more concerned about direction than magnitude," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial. "Investors just want to see gradual improvement, that things are getting better."

He said that, in particular, the manufacturing report was driving stock gains Wednesday as it showed that the sector is continuing to dig its way out. He said he was also encouraged by the portion of the report that showed customer inventories are too low, which could suggest a pickup in production is on the way.

Gains were broad based, with 24 of 30 Dow stocks rising, led by IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

Wall Street is coming off the best quarter in years. The S&P 500 gained 15.2% in the April-through-June period for its best quarter since the last three months of 1998. The Dow rose 11%, posting its best three-month period since the second quarter of 2003. The Nasdaq's 20% gain gave it its best quarter since the second of 2003.

Thursday preview: The June employment report, due out before the start of trading Thursday, is the week's biggest economic news. Employers are expected to have cut 363,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting a much smaller-than-expected 345,000 in the previous month.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.6% from a 26-year high of 9.4% in May.

Reports are also due on weekly jobless claims and May factory orders.

All financial markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Economy: Pending home sales rose 0.1% in May, the National Association of Realtors reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales would hold steady after rising a revised 7.1% in April. It was the fourth straight month of gains.

Manufacturing showed a small improvement in June. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index improved to 44.8 from 42.8 in the previous month. Economists thought it would improve to 44.9.

Labor market: Employers in the private sector cut 473,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, according to a morning report from payroll services firm ADP. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought 394,000 jobs would be cut.

The report is seen as a precursor to the more widely watched government employment report due Thursday.

Another report showed that the number of announced job cuts fell in June for the fifth month in a row. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said cuts fell to 74,393, down 33% from May and 9% from a year ago.

Autos: Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said sales dropped 11% in June versus a year earlier, a more modest decline than it has shown in recent months.

But Ford was the exception, with most major automakers reporting bigger-than-expected declines as the industry continued to struggle.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said sales fell 33% from a year ago. The automaker was in bankruptcy court for a second day Wednesday seeking approval for its restructuring plan.

Meanwhile, Chrysler said sales fell 42% in June versus a year ago.

On the move: A variety of tech shares rallied, including Dow components Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500).

General Mills (GIS, Fortune 500) reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit nearly doubled from a year ago and issued a fiscal 2010 profit forecast that is above analysts' estimates.

But AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares slumped 22% in the aftermath of its annual meeting Tuesday, in which shareholders approved a proposal to put into effect a 1-for-20 reverse stock split. The shareholders also ousted the majority of the company's board at the meeting.

AIG, bailed out by the U.S. last fall, will remain under government control for the time being.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to one on volume of 950 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one on volume of 1.97 billion shares.

Commodities: Energy prices surged, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling 58 cents to settle at $69.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rallied $13.90 to settle at $942 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices were little changed, with the benchmark 10-year note yield at 3.53%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets tumbled and European markets rallied.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% to its best level since mid-June following a barrage of economic reports, which didn't really offer much inspiration to market participants.

The ADP Employment Change report isn't always a precise indicator of what is in store with the official nonfarm payrolls report, but the ADP report does do a good job of handicapping the government's figure. So, with the latest ADP report showing a higher-than-expected the 473,000 job losses for June, many believe job losses in tomorrow's report could exceed the 363,000 that is currently being forecast.

Many economists are worried that continued weakness in labor markets and recent increases in Treasury yields could stymie a recovery in housing. According to the latest data, pending home sales for May increased just 0.1% month-over-month. They were expected to be flat after spiking 7.1% the month before.

Meanwhile, construction spending during May fell 0.9% month-over-month and missed expectations.

The June ISM Manufacturing Index came in at an in-line 44.8, which means manufacturing activity continues to contract since the Index is below 50. The monthly reading was last above 50 in February 2008. However, the pace of contraction continues to slow as the ISM has now increased six consecutive times.

Despite the generally mixed bag of economic reports, stocks were able to log broad-based gains. Consumer staples (+1.7%) were the strongest performers, thanks to General Mills (GIS 58.18, +2.16). Better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat forecast earned shares of GIS their best single-session advance by percent in nearly one month. The consumer staples sector made its best percentage gain in roughly two weeks.

Financial stocks were some of the session's worst performers. The sector shed 0.5% and finished at session lows as diversified banks (-0.8%) and regional banks (-1.0%) came under pressure.

Energy stocks struggled to remain in positive territory as sellers pressured the sector amid falling oil prices. The energy sector was up more than 2% at its session high, but finished with a modest 0.2% gain. Crude oil prices were also up more than 2% at their session high, but finished 0.8% lower at $69.35 per barrel. The reversal in oil prices came in the face of a larger-than-expected draw in weekly inventories.

Despite weakness in energy-related commodities, precious metals were able to advance amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Amid reports that China would like to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's G8 meeting, the Dollar Index dropped 0.6%. That helped gold prices climb 1.5% to $941.30 per ounce. The broader CRB Commodity Index climbed 0.5%.

Participation was lacking again this session as less than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. That's the least amount of trading volume in nearly three weeks. Volume is also expected to be light tomorrow since it is the week's final trading session ahead of the long weekend. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.DJ30 +57.06 NASDAQ +10.68 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +1.8% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +4.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1776/2.09 bln/865 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2211/950 mln/767

3:30 pm : A drooping U.S. dollar bolstered precious metals prices in pit trading Wednesday, but energy-related commodities faltered.

Both gold and silver made solid gains, but pulled back from session highs as trading drew to a close. Still, gold prices concluded the session 1.5% higher at $941.30 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices settled 1.2% higher $13.76 per ounce.

As for crude oil, prices were up more than 2% in the early going, but succumbed to selling pressure and finished 0.8% lower at $69.35 per barrel. A larger-than-expected draw in weekly inventories failed to provide a boon to prices.

Natural gas was also hit by sellers. The stuff finished the session priced 1.2% lower at $3.79 per contract, near session lows.DJ30 +74.82 NASDAQ +13.96 SP500 +6.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/1.62 bln/853 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2285/658 mln/705

3:00 pm : Stocks are back at afternoon lows as they pare their gains. The S&P 500 was up as much as 1.4% at its session high.

With stocks drifting downward, Treasuries have pared their losses. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down just 2 ticks, which has its yield back at 3.54%.

Trading volume is exceptionally low this session. The lack of trading isn't too much of a surprise, though, since a long, holiday weekend awaits U.S. market participants.DJ30 +77.01 NASDAQ +15.09 SP500 +6.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/1.50 bln/844 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2283/598 mln/699

2:30 pm : After a quick sell-off at about 2:00 ET, the market found support and now appears to be slowly ticking back higher. Each of the major indices are still solidly in positive territory.

Financials continue to be laggards today, but the retail sector is another noticeable drag on the market. Large cap names such as Target (TGT -1.8%), Sears Holdings (SHLD -1.5%), and Wal-Mart (WMT -0.06%) are a few of the stocks that are pulling that sector lower. Areas that are typically considered to be defensive, such as consumer staples, utilities, and industrials, have shown leadership today.DJ30 +78.9 NASDAQ +14.9 SP500 +6.9 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 974.9/1376.9/386.6 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 389.7/545.3/139.9

2:00 pm : Though not the worst performing sector in the S&P 500, financials have been noticable laggards for virtually the entire session. The financial sector is up a mere 0.4%, while the broader market's gains are triple that amount.

The financial sectors relatively weak performance stems from losses among diversified banks (-0.2%) and regional banks (-0.6%). Specialized finance companies (-0.4%) and asset managers (-0.3%) are also showing declines.DJ30 +98.48 NASDAQ +19.95 SP500 +9.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1807/1.28 bln/770 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2359/504 mln/612

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to hold on to strong, broad-based gains, but the major indices are gradually drifting lower.

The Dow currently has a slight edge over its counterparts as blue chip consumer staples stocks Coca-Cola (KO 49.44, +1.45), Kraft Foods (KFT 26.72, +1.38), and Procter & Gamble (PG 52.29, +1.19) provide leadership.DJ30 +105.05 NASDAQ +21.51 SP500 +9.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1827/1.19 bln/737 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2363/471 mln/587

1:00 pm : Despite a relatively mixed batch of economic data, stocks have managed to put together a broad-based rebound from the prior session's decline.

Stocks have spent the entire session in the green, though the positive tone was challenged in premarket trading when the latest ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls were slashed by 473,000 during June. The consensus called for 395,000 job losses, so the report served as a reminder that job conditions remain weak and participants could be in store for a disappointment with the government's nonfarm jobs report on Thursday. Nonetheless, data for May was revised upward to show a decline of 485,000 jobs.

A temporary bout of selling pressure also hit stocks shortly after the opening bell as a flurry of data hit news wires. The ISM Manufacturing Index for June came in at 44.8, which is essentially in step with expectations, but the new orders component dipped to 49.2% from 51.1%.

Meanwhile, construction spending for May missed expectations by decreasing 0.9% month-over-month. Data for April was revised lower to reflect a more moderate monthly increase of 0.6%.

Amid continued weakness in labor markets and rising Treasury yields, many continue to keep an eye on home sales. Pending home sales for May increased just 0.1% month-over-month. They were expected to be flat after spiking 7.1% the month before.

Buying remains broad-based this session. That has all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trading in the green. Consumer staples are sporting the best gains of any major sector. They are up 2.1% in what is becoming their best single-session performance since late March. General Mills (GIS 57.89, +1.87) is a leader in the group after the company posted better-than-expected earnings and issued an upbeat forecast.

Materials stocks are also making solid gains as commodities prices climb. Specifically, the sector is up 1.1% as gold prices climb 1.8% to $944.10 per ounce, near session highs.

However, oil prices have surrendered their early gains. Crude had been up more than 2%, but are now down 1.1% to $69.10 per barrel despite a larger-than-expected weekly inventory draw. DJ30 +91.22 NASDAQ +19.16 SP500 +8.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1789/1.10 bln/748 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2331/435 mln/619

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with strength, but the U.S. dollar is stuck in a fit of weakness. The greenback is currently down almost 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Its situation hasn't been helped by news from Reuters that China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy.

The dollar's decline has bode well for precious metals, though. As such, gold prices are up 1.5% to roughly $941.00 per ounce. The rise in gold prices combined with buying in the equity markets has shares of Yamana Gold (AUY 9.42, +0.58) and Newmont Mining (NEM 42.54, +1.67) spiking.DJ30 +107.92 NASDAQ +23.72 SP500 +10.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1817/1.02 bln/707 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2383/399 mln/563

12:00 pm : The energy sector has pulled back from a 2.2% advance to trade with a more modest 0.8% gain as oil prices descend from their morning highs.

Crude oil prices had been up roughly 2.8% from the previous pit trading session, but are now trading with a 0.3% loss at $69.65 per barrel. The sudden selling effort against crude comes despite a larger-than-expected weekly inventory draw.DJ30 +104.98 NASDAQ +24.21 SP500 +10.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1832/895 mln/679 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2375/357 mln/555

11:30 am : Health care stocks have fallen back into the red to trade with a fractional loss, but the other nine major sectors in the S&P 500 continue to trade with solid gains.

Tech stocks have steadily ascended to an enviable 1.6% gain. The sector's advance comes with help from semiconductor stocks, which are up 2.7% as a group.

However, consumer staples stocks are showing the best gains of any major sector. Consumer staples are up 1.8%, just shy of their session high.DJ30 +106.71 NASDAQ +23.58 SP500 +10.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1819/769 mln/634 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2404/307 mln/508

11:00 am : Stocks recently climbed to levels not seen since June 15, but they have since started to drift lower. Still, impressive, broad-based gains remain.

Despite the strong gains in the broader market, health care stocks aren't showing much gusto. The sector is up just 0.1% after spending most of the morning in negative territory. Of the health care stocks listed in the S&P 500, declining issues outnumber advancers by 2-to-1; Abbott Labs (ABT 46.73, -0.31) and Express Scripts (ESRX 68.11, -0.64). The decline in shares of ABT comes amid reports suggesting that more stringent limits should be set on some of Abbott's products. DJ30 +123.42 NASDAQ +24.92 SP500 +11.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1842/663 mln/569 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2411/266 mln/483

10:35 am : After a recent pullback, stocks have climbed to fresh session highs. Commodities are also showing strength.

After trading near session highs this morning, crude has pulled back following the weekly inventory data. Crude is 1.5% higher at $71.00 per barrel. Inventory data just released shows a draw of 3.66 million versus the consesus of a draw of 2.0 million.

Natural gas spiked into positive territory near the open and remains above the flat line. Natural gas is trading 0.8% higher at $3.86.

Precious metals began trending higher premarket and extended gains at the open. Gold is 1.5% higher at $941.10 per ounce, while silver is trading 1.7% higher at $13.83 per ounce.DJ30 +126.59 NASDAQ +25.55 SP500 +11.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/493.1 mln/541 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2413/198.4 mln/421

10:05 am : Stocks have pulled back in the wake of the latest batch of economic data. Still, the major indices are sporting solid gains.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for June came in at 44.8, which is slightly below the 44.9 that was expected. The reading for May came in at 42.8.

Construction spending for May decreased 0.9% month-over-month. It was expected to slip 0.6%. Spending in April was revised lower to reflect a 0.6% increase.

Pending home sales in May increased 0.1% month-over-month. They were expected to be flat after spiking the month before. April pending home sales were revised higher to reflect a 7.1% monthly increase.

Early Movers: Trading up -- OSK +28.7%, PARD +16.8%, LNN +14.5%, CYNO +8.5%, STZ +7.5%, SNX +7.4%, CBL +6.7%, EDC +6.3%, BLL +6.1%, TRW +5.8%, MVL +5.7%; Trading down: BEAT -40.4%, FRPT -36%, SPAR -23.1%, SKBI -22.6%, MYGN -22.2%, IMMR -19%, ACOR -9.5%, SPPI -8.4%, AIG -7.3%DJ30 +57.21 NASDAQ +13.16 SP500 +5.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1644/335 mln/629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/143 mln/549

09:45 am : Led by energy (+1.5%), consumer staples (+1.3%), and basic materials (+1.2%), the stock market is up markedly with broad-based gains.

The early advance by the energy sector comes as oil prices climb 2.3% to $71.50 per barrel ahead of the latest weekly inventory announcement (10:30 AM ET).

Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks are following shares of General Mills (GIS 57.33, +1.31) higher. The company posted this morning better-than-expected quarterly earnings and an upbeat forecast. Those accomplishments followed the company's decision to hike its dividend.

As for materials stocks, the sector has benefited from rising commodity prices amid a weaker U.S. dollar. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.0% and the Dollar Index is down 0.7%.DJ30 +66.28 NASDAQ +11.80 SP500 +6.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/166 mln/608 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2146/91 mln/518

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Strong buying in Europe is helping to offset a rather dreary June ADP Employment Change report so that stock futures point to a higher start for the major indices. An advance would come as a sort of rebound from the previous session's broad-based losses, which actually stemmed from some disappointing consumer confidence and expectations readings. Data will continue to provide participants with cues both in this session and the next. Still to come are the ISM Manufacturing Index for June, as well as May construction spending data and pending home sales data (10:00 AM ET). Vehicle sales data are also expected to be released during the day. Thursday will bring the latest weekly jobless claims numbers and the government's official nonfarm payrolls report. Factory orders for May are also due tomorrow.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. Action overseas has been helped by another batch of encouraging manufacturing data from China. The optimism associated with the report has been carried over to Europe, where it has helped lead a rebound. Currently, France's CAC is up 1.4% after slipping 1.7% in the previous session. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is a primary leader once again; its shares are up more than 4% week-to-date. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 1.2% as energy stocks and materials stocks show strength. BP PLC (BP), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RTP) are primary leaders at the moment. In Germany, the DAX is up 1.1% after falling 1.6% on Tuesday. Allianz (AZ) is providing the most leadership to the German bourse, but Commerzbank is also providing support amid reports that Germany is moving closer toward a plan to help banks get rid of toxic assets. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei eased back 0.2%. The Bank of Japan's corporate survey showed that confidence among big manufacturers pulled back from a record low hit three months ago, but it also showed that companies plan to cut capital spending. All Nippon Airways tumbled amid reports that the company plans to raise capital in a public share offering. After the close, Shinsei Bank and Aozora Bank will merge at a ratio of 1:1. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite jumped 1.7%, which pushed the index above 3,000 for the first time in more than one year. The advance was helped by news that the Purchasing Managers' Index for June made a modest increase to 53.2 from May, marking the fourth straight month that the PMI has topped 50, which separates expansion from contraction. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed for a holiday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Stock futures momentarily pulled back in the wake of higher-than-expected job losses in the latest ADP Employment Change report. According to the report for June, private payrolls were slashed by 473,000, which is more than the 395,000 job losses that were expected. Stock futures have since recovered, though, and continue to point to a higher start.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Several pieces of data are due out this morning, beginning with the ADP Employment Change for June (8:15 AM ET). The ADP Employment Change isn't always precise, but it does provide participants with the most accurate indicator for the government's nonfarm payrolls number (Thursday, July 2, 8:30 AM ET). The ADP report is expected to show 395,000 job losses for June. The ISM Manufacturing Index for June is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET). The ISM is expected to come in at 44.6, up from 42.8. Construction spending data for May and pending home sales data for May are also scheduled to be released later this morning (10:00 AM ET). Construction spending is expected to decline 0.6% month-over-month, while pending home sales are expected to be flat from the previous month. Vehicle sales data for June are expected be released throughout the day; according to Reuters, auto sales are expected to show signs of stability. In earnings news, General Mills (GIS) posted adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share for its latest quarter. The results topped the $0.81 per share that had been widely expected. The company went on to forecast earnings from $4.20 to $4.25 per share for fiscal 2010. That exceeds the $4.18 per share that Wall Street forecast. The better-than-expected earnings and forecast follows the company's recent move to hike its dividend by 9% to $0.47 per share. Shares of GIS are up roughly 1.8% to $57.00 per share ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, broader market stock futures are also up ahead of the opening bell.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.30.

06:20 am : Nikkei...9939.93...-18.50...-0.20%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:20 am : FTSE...19362.01...+298.90...+1.60%. DAX...4879.55...+70.90...+1.50%.

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