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 Post subject: July 31st Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:02 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

3min All Session Chart - The trading day got started early around 0830am est via the volatile price reaction to the Employment Cost Index (U.S. only) and the GDP (U.S. and Canada). However, after 1015am est the volatility begin declining for the remainder of the trading day except for a few minutes of decent activity.

Key change in supply/demand is obvious via the above statement by the interval that closed @ 0833am est.

As for my trading today, the vacation was good and I re-energized after feeling I was lethargic for the past few months. In fact, I was taking a lot more breaks from trading the past few months in an attempt to prevent burn-out or losing interest. I even temporarily switch trading instruments from the Emini ES to the Emini TF (formerly ER2) and then back to Emini ES in hopes regaining that aggressive trading style that's very profitable for me.

Today I was aggressive out of the gate and kepted the mental concentration the entire trading day resulting in no discipline problems in my trading today.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=262

My Trading Performance: +24.50 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Dow Ends Best July In 20 Years
Stocks are mixed Friday after the second-quarter GDP report. Dow gains nearly 9% in the month.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 31, 2009: 4:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The stock advance lost steam late Friday, at the end of Wall Street's best July in decades, as investors considered a report that showed the pace of the recession is easing.

According to early tallies, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended the session a few points higher, as did the S&P 500 (SPX) index. Both ended at fresh 2009 highs, just above the more than 9-month highs hit Thursday.

For the month of July, the Dow gained around 8.8%, according to early tallies, seeing its best July since 1989, when it gained 9%. The S&P 500 is up 7.5% this month, seeing its best July performance since 1988, when it gained 8.8%.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost a few points after ending the previous session at its highest close since Oct. 1.

The Nasdaq was up 8% in the month, its best July since 1997, when it gained 10.5%.

Stocks struggled higher through most of Friday, as investors focused on the positives in the morning's GDP report and the latest batch of quarterly results. But the advance seemed to lose momentum by the close.

"There's a constant bid in the market, you can't knock it down," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

In the last three weeks, the major gauges have all gained around 12% as investors have breathed a sigh of relief that the pace of the economic slowdown has eased and corporate profits are closer to recovering.

Saluzzi said the news over the last few weeks hasn't been especially positive, just not as bad as expected. But he said bullish sentiment has taken over, adding that investors are jumping in -- perhaps out of fear of missing the rally.

GDP: The pace of economic decline slowed in the second quarter, in the clearest indicator yet that the recession is winding down.

GDP, the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity, shrank at a 1% annual rate in the April-through-June period. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought GDP would shrink at a faster 1.5% rate.

The results reflected a smaller decline in exports as the result of higher consumer prices and more government spending.

"There are some positive signs in the report, but there's not a clear sign that we are moving back to growth just yet," said James King, chief investment officer at National Penn Investors Trust. "I think that's why you're seeing a mild reaction in the markets."

GDP has declined for four quarters in a row, hitting the nadir in the first quarter, which was revised lower to a decline of 6.4% from the originally reported drop of 5.5%.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP dipped at a 5.4% annual rate. The two quarters represent the biggest quarterly declines in 26 years.

In other economic news, the House of Representatives voted to add $2 billion to the popular cash-for-clunkers program, which has been running low on funds. The Senate will vote on the bill Monday. The program is seen as having already started to help lift auto sales.

The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 43.4 in July from 39.9 in June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 43.

Quarterly results: Dow component Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) reported a 71% drop in second-quarter profit due to oil and gas prices and lower demand for fuel in a global economic slowdown. The No. 2 oil producer said it earned 87 cents per share versus $2.69 a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters thought it would earn 97 cents per share. Shares gained 2%.

On Thursday, No. 1 oil producer Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), also a Dow component, reported a 66% drop in quarterly profit. Shares of Exxon dipped Friday.

Late Thursday, Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that topped estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates. Shares of the Dow component slipped nearly 4% Friday.

Also late Thursday, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reported a wider quarterly loss as the recession cut into profits at its casinos and hotels. The company reported weaker quarterly earnings that topped estimates and weaker revenue that missed estimates. On Friday, a number of analysts downgraded the company or warned about its capital position. Shares slumped 16% in unusually active New York Stock Exchange trading.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) shares rallied, with economists estimating that the Cash for Clunkers program will help boost auto sales.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to one on volume of 930 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by a narrow margin on volume of 1.9 billion shares..

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.48% from 3.60% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets ended mixed in afternoon trading and Asian markets ended higher.

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.53 to settle at $69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $18.50 to settle at $955.80 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Most of the excitement in Friday's trade occurred before the open as market participants awaited and reacted to a mixed Q2 GDP reading, as the major indices stuck to a slight trading range throughout the session and settled near the unchanged mark.

The advance Q2 GDP report showed the economy contracted at an annualized rate of -1.0%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. That was much improved from a downwardly revised -6.4% (from -5.5%) in the first quarter and it was also better than the expected -1.5% decline.

Personal consumption expenditures, which are the main driver of the economy, fell at an annualized rate of -1.2%. This was worse than the expected decline of 0.5%.

The market's reaction to the report in premarket trading was negative, with S&P 500 futures losing around 10 points. But the market managed to open nearly unchanged, and traded in a range-bound fashion throughout the session.

In the end, five of the ten sectors advanced, led by materials (+0.9%) as commodity prices rose. The utilities sector underperformed with a loss of 1.1%.

In corporate news, Ford (F 8.00, +0.61 ) got a lift on early reports that on word that the "cash-for-clunkers" programs could get $2 billion in additional funding through Sept. 2010, which the House of Representatives passed later in the afternoon. The move comes after the original program's budget of $1 billion may have been used in less than a month.

Walt Disney (DIS 25.12, -1.10) fell 4.2%. The company reported nearly in-line EPS, but its revenue dropped by a larger-than-expected 6.9% year-over-year.

Chevron (CVX 69.47, +1.77) this morning reported Q2 EPS of $0.87, which missed the consensus of $0.95. Net income dropped 71% year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices.

In commodity trading, oil and precious metals closed significantly higher, benefiting from a 1.2% decline in the Dollar Index. Gold futures rose 2.0% to $954.00 per ounce and oil futures climbed up 3.3% to $69.15 per barrel.

The dollar's decline comes despite strength in the long end of the Treasury curve, with the 10-year note advancing a point and the 30-year bond up nearly two points.

The S&P 500 surged 7.4% in July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain.DJ30 +17.15 NASDAQ -5.80 SP500 +0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1282/2.27 bln/1356 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1879/1.52 bln/1137

3:35 pm : The U.S. dollar is currently down 1.2% this session.

Precious metals saw a delayed reaction to this weakness. About thirty minutes after the U.S. dollar moved substantially lower in the morning, gold and silver futures prices spiked dramatically to session highs. Both precious metals maintained their elevated prices as the dollar's weakness did not subside. August gold closed 2.2% higher at $955.50 per ounce and September silver closed 3.4% higher at $13.94 per ounce.

September crude oil realized lows at $64.96 per barrel right after the open of the pit trade. Weakness in the dollar helped propel shares thereafter. September crude oil closed up 3.6% at $69.34 per barrel. Through the first month of the third quarter, crude oil is down less than 1%.

Despite the dollar's weakness, natural gas futures fell in price this session. Reports from Chesapeake Energy (CHK 21.55 +0.22) and Southwestern Energy (SWN 41.45 +0.01) helped aid the bearish sentiment around natural gas prices. Both companies last night reported higher than expected Q2 production of the commodity. September natural gas futures closed down 2.4% at 3.66 per contract.DJ30 +39.60 NASDAQ +4.05 SP500 +3.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/1.69 bln/1106 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2086/809 mln/912

3:00 pm : The major indices slip back toward the unchanged mark as we head into the final hour of trade.

Volume is on the light side, with only 706 million shares exchanging hands on the NYSE.DJ30 +15.47 NASDAQ +1.27 SP500 +1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1462/1.51 bln/1126 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/706 mln/975

2:30 pm : The major indices approach their early morning highs. Buying interest is broad-based. Meanwhile, crude futures continue to gain, now up 3.6%.

Reuters reported that the House of Representatives have approved a bill that gives shareholders the right to non-binding, annual votes on executive pay.DJ30 +45.72 NASDAQ +8.26 SP500 +4.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/1.39 bln/1036 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2130/651 mln/850

2:00 pm : Stocks post slight gains, but remain range-bound. Treasuries have regained some buying interest, with the 10-year up 27 ticks.DJ30 +32.12 NASDAQ +6.51 SP500 +2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1487/1.28 bln/1081 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1980/591 mln/972

1:30 pm : The stock market remains near the unchanged mark. The S&P 500 is on pace for a more than 7% gain this month, marking the fifth consecutive month of gains. The Index advanced 8.5% in March and 9.4% in April.

The U.S. House has approved $2 billion in fresh funding for the "cash for clunkers" program, according to Reuters.DJ30 +26.68 NASDAQ +6.11 SP500 +2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1401/1.18 bln/1143 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1086/552 mln/1057

1:00 pm : The major indices have held to a relatively tight trading range throughout the morning and are currently flat as market participants digest a mixed GDP reading.

The advance Q2 GDP report showed the economy contracted at an annualized rate of -1.0%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. That was much improved from a downwardly revised -6.4% (from -5.5%) in the first quarter and it was also better than the expected -1.5% decline.

Personal consumption expenditures, which are the main driver of the economy, fell at an annualized rate of -1.2%. This was worse than the expected decline of 0.5%.

The market's reaction in premarket trading was negative to the report, with S&P 500 futures losing around 10 points. But the market managed to open nearly unchanged, and has been range-bound since.

Currently, six of the ten sectors are higher, with materials (+1.2%) leading the way thanks to gains in some commodities. The utilities sector (-0.9%) is underperforming.

In corporate news, Ford (F 7.87, +0.48) is trading with a solid 6.5% gain on word that there is a proposed House bill that would give the "cash-for-clunkers" program $2 billion in additional funding through Sept. 2010, according to Reuters. The move comes after the original program's budget of $1 billion may have been used in less than a month.

Walt Disney (DIS 25.18, -1.04) is trading with a 4.0% loss after the company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations.

Chevron (CVX 68.57, +0.87) this morning reported Q2 EPS of $0.87, which missed the consensus of $0.95. Net income dropped 71% year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices.

In commodity trading, oil and precious metals are higher, benefiting from a 1.2% decline in the Dollar Index. Gold futures are up 1.8% to $952.10 per ounce and oil futures are up 2.0% to $68.25 per barrel.

The dollar's decline comes despite strength in the long end of the Treasury curve, with the 10-year note up 23 ticks and the 30-year bond up more than a point.DJ30 +10.20 NASDAQ +2.11 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1388/1.09 bln/1149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/512 mln/1080

12:30 pm : Trade remains range-bound. Gold prices continue to climb higher, now up 2.2% to $954.90 per ounce.

The energy and materials (+1.5%) sector are at session highs, while health care (-0.4%) is at its worst level of the session.DJ30 +30.76 NASDAQ +6.94 SP500 +2.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1436/1.00 bln/1073 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1881/471 mln/1011

12:00 pm : News flow has slowed as the market trades with slight gains. Seven of the ten sectors are currently in positive territory.

The materials sector (+1.2%) recently hit session highs. The sector is benefiting from a spike in gold futures to a gain of 1.6%

In currency trading, the Dollar Index is down 1.1%.DJ30 +29.55 NASDAQ +6.89 SP500 +2.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1409/894 mln/1073 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1881/426 mln/988

11:30 am : Stocks remain near the unchanged mark.

Ford (F 7.86, +0.47) is trading with a solid gain on word that there is a proposed House bill that would give the "cash-for-clunkers" program $2 billion in additional funding through Sept. 2010, according to Reuters. The move comes after the original program's budget of $1 billion may have been used in less than a month.DJ30 +13.68 NASDAQ +4.36 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/761 mln/1089 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1777/368 mln/1070

10:55 am : The stock market continues to fluctuate near yesterday's closing level. After briefly trading with slight losses, the major indices are back in positive territory.

In corporate news, Walt Disney (DIS 25.55, -0.67) is trading with a 2.6% loss after the company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations.DJ30 +38.62 NASDAQ +8.56 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1369/619 mln/1021 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/297 mln/1002

10:30 am : September crude oil extended losses at the open of pit trading to morning lows of $64.96 per barrel. In recent trading, crude has rebounded, bouncing over $2 off lows and moving back near the unchanged line. Currently, crude is three cents lower at $66.91 per barrel.

September natural gas extend losses at the open with crude, but has not rebounded along with crude and remains near its morning lows of $3.568. Nat gas is currently 3.5% lower at $3.611.

Despite a weak dollar, precious metals pushed to lows this morning. However, both metals have rebounded in recent activity. Gold spiked recently to new highs of $942.90 per ounce and is currently 0.6% higher at $940.50 per ounce, while silver's rebound was more modest. However, silver pushed back into positive territory and is 0.3% higher at $13.52 per ounce.DJ30 +32.95 NASDAQ +4.73 SP500 +2.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1291 /493.9 mln/1026 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1702/242.0 mln/1057

10:05 am : The major indices retreat back toward the unchanged mark.

Six of the ten sectors are posting a gain, led by consumer staples (+0.5%), industrials (+0.5%) and healthcare (+0.4%). The energy sector is underperforming with a loss of 0.4%. Chevron (CVX 67.51, -0.19) this morning reported Q2 EPS of $0.87, which missed the consensus of $0.95. Net income dropped 71% year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices.

Trading up: ANDS +65%, OFIX +24.8%, ABAX +21.8%, SSRX +15.5%, NVTL +15.2%, DSCM +14.8%, GGC +13.1%, ISLN +12.5%, GXDX +12.2%, POWI +12.1%, LAD +11.1%, BEC +10%, REXX +9.3%, SGY +8.4%, RST +8%, SRZ +7.3%, IRE +6.9%, OMX +6.6%, VCI +6.2%, THO +6%... Trading down: SYNA -26.5%, PIR -20.2%, GPRO -12.8%, PKI -12.8%, HTCH -12.4%, DNB -11.9%, ESLR -11.3%, PBI -10.9%, LVS -10.5%, FSLR -9.9%, AGP -9.3%, MPWR -8.5%, FVE -7.9%, INFN -7.1%, CAST -6.9%, VPRT -6.6%, E -6.2%.DJ30 +19.72 NASDAQ +1.60 SP500 +1.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1296/281 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/153 mln/933

09:50 am : The stock market gets off to a negative start, as futures indicated, but then quickly rises to positive territory. The market is digesting a mixed second quarter GDP report. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.0%, topping the consensus of -1.5%, but personal consumption fell at a worse-than-expected annualized rate of 1.2% (consensus -0.5%).

Just hitting the wires, the July Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturing survey, rose to 43.4 to from the previous month's reading of 39.9. This was about in-line with the expected reading of 43.0.DJ30 +52.83 NASDAQ +9.60 SP500 +5.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/165 mln/922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1740/105 mln/832

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Futures trade slightly above recently reached lows and indicate the stock market will start on a negative note... In Europe, markets are modestly lower, giving up slight gains as U.S. futures fell. In Asia, the Nikkei rose 1.9% as Sony (SNE) posted a smaller-than-expected loss. Likewise, the Hang Seng rose 1.7%, getting a lift from better-than-expected corporate earnings.

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Futures give up some more points following the Q2 GDP report, hitting session lows, and now suggest a modestly lower start. At session highs, hit shortly before the GDP release, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow futures were above fair value by 6, 6, and 59 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Treasuries gained following the GDP report.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Futures see some volatile action and are down slighly as the advance second quarter GDP reading is released. Second quarter GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.0%, compared to the consensus of -1.5%. First quarter GDP was revised lower to a 6.4% decline from the previous reading of 5.5%. Personal consumption fell 1.2% (consensus -0.5%) and core PCE price index rose 2.0% quarter-over-quarter (consensus +2.3%). Separately, the second quarter employment cost index rose 0.4% (consensus +0.3%).

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Futures suggest a slightly higher open although. Futures are likely to go on the move at 8:30ET when second quarter GDP is released. In earnings news, utility companies Dominion (D) and Constellation Energy (CEG) both topped estimates. Chevron (CVX) is the biggest name yet to report this morning.

06:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80.

06:31 am : Nikkei...10356.83...+191.60...+1.90%. Hang Seng...20573.33...+339.30...+1.70%.

06:31 am : FTSE...4622.02...-9.60...-0.20%. DAX...5345.37...-14.80...-0.30%.

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