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 Post subject: June 30th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:47 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

3 Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1003am est via providing resistance that the market was unable to test again along with the 1003am est interval producing a Short signal via the Advance Price Action Only Report (APAOR) strategies.

Unfortunately, I missed that trade signal and the rest of my trading day produced very little profits as I went into conservative mode (looking for ticks instead of points) to ensure I had a profitable trading day to close out the quarter that was also very profitable.

Trading Tip: Last trading day of the quarter when funds are realocating...look for a trend day or strong parabolic price action.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=227

My Trading Performance: +2.00 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Stocks Dip, But It's Still A Winning Quarter
Wall Street retreats on weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report, falling oil prices and stocks.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 30, 2009: 6:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Tuesday, at the end of the S&P 500's best quarter in more than a decade, with a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and a slump in oil prices sparking the selloff.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 82 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 8 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) gave up 9 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks gained Monday as investors scooped up shares hit in the recent selloff. But the advance petered out Tuesday at the end of a strong quarter on Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 15.2% in the April through June period for its best quarter since the final three months of 1998.

Tuesday brought a reading that showed consumer confidence slipped in June after rising in the last two months. That setback was weighing on stocks, said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan. But the weakness was also part of a broader pullback after the spring rally.

The S&P 500 surged 40% after bouncing off 12-year lows hit March 9. But in the last two weeks, stocks have fallen modestly as investors have worried that the market got ahead of any economic improvement.

"The path of least resistance appears to be up, but I see no new catalyst," Wilson said.

He said that it's possible that the second-quarter results, which start pouring in later in July, could give the market a lift -- particularly if the banks, techs or homebuilders have something good to say.

Other than that, "I would not be surprised to see stocks continue to consolidate sideways in the third quarter and then ramp up again in the fourth quarter," he said.

Strong quarter: The Dow gained 11% this quarter, posting its best three-month period since the second quarter of 2003. The Nasdaq has gained 20% and is on track to post its best quarter since the second of 2003.

But weakness in the first quarter means first half of 2009 results are less upbeat. The Dow is down 3.8%, the S&P is up 1.7% and the Nasdaq is up 16.4%.

Economic reports : The June Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board fell to 49.3 from a revised 54.8 in May, versus forecasts for a rise to 55.3.

The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index fell 18.1% in April from a year ago versus forecasts for a drop of 18.6%.

But on a month-over-month basis, the index showed some improvement. Prices fell 0.6% versus March, after posting a 2.2% drop in the previous month.

The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 39.9 in June from 34.9 in May. Economists thought it would rise to 39.

A slew of reports are jammed in to the remaining days of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Wednesday brings a report on June private-sector employment from payroll services firm ADP, a precursor to Thursday's more closely watched government jobs report.

The pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors and the Institute for Supply Management's June manufacturing index are also due Wednesday. Other reports on tap include May construction spending and June auto and truck sales.

In addition to the monthly jobs report, Thursday brings readings on factory orders and weekly jobless claims.

All financial markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Oil and the dollar: Strength in the greenback dragged on oil and other dollar-traded commodities.

In currency trading, the dollar rallied versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell $1.60 to settle at $69.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That dragged on big oil services stocks, including Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). Other Dow stock losers included Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and IBM (IBM, Fortune 500).

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.51% from 3.47% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended mixed.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $13.60 to settle at $927.40 an ounce.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 1.33 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers five to four on volume of 2.12 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

Participants sent all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 into the red following the release of the June Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at 49.3 to miss expectations and mark a decline from the previous reading. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index also missed the consensus estimate and declined from the previous reading.

Materials stocks were among the hardest hit sectors this session. They shed 1.3% as steel stocks (-1.8%) showed weakness after Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 52.86, -7.35) reported some disappointing quarterly earnings results and other basic commodities prices were weakened by a stronger dollar. The greenback's 0.4% gain helped send gold prices 1.4% lower to $927.20 per ounce and oil prices down 2.3% to $68.90 per barrel. Still, both the CRB Commodity Index and the materials sector gained roughly 16% during the second quarter.

Financials saw the best gains of any major sector during the second quarter. The sector shrugged off today's 1.1% loss to finish the quarter with a 44% gain.

Leadership from the financial sector helped the S&P 500 post a second quarter gain of nearly 17%, which marks a rebound from the first quarter's near 12% decline and the near 24% drop registered in the fourth quarter of 2008. Still, the second quarter rebound is the best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1998.

Such strong gains have many market watchers calling for a pullback in stock prices. However, such consolidation could also be accomplished with stocks moving sideways for an extended period of time. To that point, the S&P 500 finished June flat; or up just one-fifth of a point, to be exact. DJ30 -82.38 NASDAQ -9.02 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -7.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/2.10 bln/1517 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1279/1.33 bln/1690

3:35 pm : The Nasdaq has pushed to fresh afternoon highs. The technology based index is outperforming the other two major indices, down just 0.4% on the session.

Commodities experienced a weak session, this came in conjunction with strength in the U.S. Dollar. Energy commodities traded 2.2% lower as precious metals traded 2.1% lower.

September silver contracts closed down 2.8% at $13.59 per ounce. The contracts chopped around their session lows after getting slammed in the morning. Silver future contracts are still up about 21% through the first half of the year.

August gold futures moved in a similar fashion, although the losses were not as severe. The contracts finished down 1.4% to $927.20 per ounce.

After chopping just above their session low of $68.90 per barrel for most of the session, August crude oil futures rallied a little more than $0.50, but still closed down 2.3% at $69.85 per barrel. Crude futures are now up almost 57% through the first half of the year.

Natural gas futures extended yesterday's weak session. Natural gas futures contracts also rallied marginally off session lows but still closed down 2.8% at $3.84 per contract.DJ30 -87.29 NASDAQ -9.19 SP500 -9.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/1.6 bln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1263/776 mln/1705

3:00 pm : Stocks have crawled slowly and moderately to afternoon highs, but they remain well off of their session highs, which were reached in the early going when stocks traded in positive territory.

Sellers have redoubled their efforts against Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down 11 ticks after climbing back from being down more than 20 ticks to the unchanged mark. DJ30 -100.82 NASDAQ -11.59 SP500 -10.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/1.43 bln/1452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1183/687 mln/1761

2:30 pm : Afternoon trading has become rather subdued, leaving the major indices to continue moving sideways near their session lows.

All 10 major sectors remain in negative territory. Their losses range from 0.8% (consumer discretionary) to 1.9% (telecom).

Despite the weakness in the broader market, small-cap stocks have done a relatively good job of limiting their losses. In turn, the Russell 2000 is down a rather modest 0.3%. At its session low the Russell 2000 was down almost 0.7%.DJ30 -103.46 NASDAQ -14.81 SP500 -10.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1099/1.31 bln/1511 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/631 mln/1857

2:00 pm : There are only a few gainers this session. Among those making headway, H&R Block (HRB 17.10, +1.43) is spiking after posting this morning better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Apollo Group (APOL 71.24, +5.25) is also making strong gains after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings results of its own. The pair are primary leaders in the S&P 500.

Electronic Arts (ERTS 21.74, +0.93) is also providing leadership. The stock was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch.DJ30 -122.28 NASDAQ -17.60 SP500 -13.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1069/1.22 bln/1518 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1023/590 mln/1906

1:30 pm : Stocks are moving sideways in a relatively narrow trading range. For the S&P 500, the range brackets the 915 level by just a couple of points in either direction.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices have slipped to fresh session lows. Futures contracts are currently pricing the stuff 3.4% lower at $69.00 per barrel.

Energy stocks have contained their losses, though. The energy sector is down 1.3% after being down more than 2% at its low.DJ30 -117.67 NASDAQ -15.91 SP500 -12.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/1.13 bln/1499 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1031/550 mln/1873

1:00 pm : Disappointing consumer confidence and expectations readings have prompted participants to move against stocks in the final trading session of the second quarter. Still, the downward move hasn't disrupted what are shaping up to be some of the best quarterly gains in years.

The Consumer Confidence Index for June came in at 49.3, which was both below the consensus forecast and down from the previous reading. The Expectations Index, which has spiked in recent months amid improving economic outlooks, faltered by slipping below the previous reading and missing expectations.

Participants moved to sell stocks en masse following the report. As such, 85% of the components listed in the S&P 500 are in the red, while McDonald's (MCD 57.41, +0.18), 3M (MMM 59.99, +0.03), and Bank of America (BAC 13.21, +0.02) are the only components in the 30-member Dow to trade with gains.

The Dow is still on pace to log a second quarter gain of almost 12%, though. That's the best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2003. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is close to a second quarter gain of 16%, which would be the best quarterly gain posted since the fourth quarter of 1998.

Financials have been the best performers during the second quarter. The S&P 500's financial sector has surged some 44% in the second quarter alone. That performance follows quarterly losses of 32% and 39% in the first quarter fourth quarter of 2008, respectively. Financials are still down nearly 5% year-to-date and down 1.2% this session.

This session's weakness isn't limited to just stocks, however. Commodities are down 1.6%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. Gold is down 1.2% to $929.90 per ounce, while crude oil is down 2.6% to $69.65 per barrel.

Treasuries are also under pressure, though they have reclaimed most of their losses. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down a modest 3 ticks after being down more than 20 ticks in the early going.DJ30 -105.73 NASDAQ -13.63 SP500 -10.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/1.04 bln/1465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1063/509 mln/1854

12:30 pm : Each of the major indices are trading with broad-based losses near session lows. Still, this session's weakness hasn't dampened second quarter gains.

Roughly half way through the second quarter's final trading session, the S&P 500 is up more than 16% this quarter, the Dow is up almost 12% this quarter, and the Nasdaq Composite is up almost 22% for the quarter.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is up roughly 21% in the second quarter, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up nearly 20% for the quarter, and the Russell 2000 is up more than 22% this quarter.

Amid the gains, bank stocks have made some of the strongest runs. The KBW Banking Index has surged almost 39% during the second quarter. DJ30 -112.76 NASDAQ -13.97 SP500 -11.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1061/965 mln/1470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/474 mln/1869

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their losses so that all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are now down by at least 1%.

Losses are steepest among telecom stocks (-2.1%) as integrated telcos AT&T (T 24.77, -0.45) and Verizon (VZ 30.63, -0.73) go on the backslide. At their current prices, shares of T and VZ carry dividend yields of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yields 3.5%.

Energy-related stocks are also showing considerable weakness. Refiners are down 1.4% following news from Reuters that analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their coverage view on U.S. refiners to Cautious. However, the broader sector is down a steeper 2.0% as oil and gas equipment stocks (-2.86) and oil and gas explorers (-2.0%) falter amid falling oil prices - crude oil prices were last quoted 2.9% lower at $69.40 per barrel. DJ30 -124.70 NASDAQ -14.87 SP500 -12.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1012/835 mln/1495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 925/428 mln/1929

11:30 am : The S&P 500 continues to bounce around the 915 level, but has not yet pushed below that mark.

Though stocks remain constrained in a fit of weakness, the U.S. dollar is showing some strength. In turn, the Dollar Index is currently up 0.5%. However, it has shed more than 6.5% this quarter.

Weakness among stocks has also helped Treasuries recoup some of their losses. The benchmark 10-year Note had been down more than 20 ticks earlier, but is now down a modest 6 ticks, which has its yield back at 3.5%.DJ30 -102.10 NASDAQ -9.80 SP500 -10.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 969/746 mln/1518 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 896/381 mln/1932

11:00 am : The S&P 500 recently extended its decline so that it fell back to the 915 level, where it has since found support. Still, losses are broad-based among the major sectors in the S&P 500 and range from the tech sector's 0.4% decline to the utilities sector's 1.8% decline.

The relatively limited loss by the tech sector has helped the Nasdaq hold up better against the recent selling effort than its counterparts. The Nasdaq actually lagged the other headline indices in the previous session.DJ30 -95.38 NASDAQ -8.72 SP500 -10.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1006/616 mln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 882/309 mln/1911

10:30 am : Crude is extending morning losses, currently 1.7% lower at $70.31 per barrel, and is trading near early morning lows.

Natural gas is trading sharply lower as well, breaking further below the $4.00 level. Nat gas is 2.4% currently lower at $3.86.

Precious metals are lower on a higher dollar this morning. August gold is 1.5% lower at $940.70 per ounce, while July silver is 1.9% lower at $13.71.DJ30 -70.21 NASDAQ -8.53 SP500 -8.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1018/454.4 mln/1345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 894/232.5 mln/1854

10:05 am : Stocks have dropped sharply into negative territory in the wake of the latest consumer confidence and expectations readings.

The Consumer Confidence Index for June came in at 49.3, which is below the 55.3 that was expected and down from the previously reported 54.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index came in at 65.5, which is below the 75.5 that was expected and down from the 71.5 in the previous report.

The downturns in the Confidence and Expectations Indices come as consumers continue to grapple with a tough labor market, depreciating home values, and a flat stock prices during June.

Early Movers: Trading up -- VICL +21.8%, GERN +17.3%, XCO +16.5%, CGEN +12.2%, APOL +8.9%, HRB +8.2%, ESI +7.3%, TSL +7%, CECO +6.9%, PACR +6.7%, ARM +6.3%, DV +6.2%, COCO +5.6%, FUQI +5.6%, GMXR +5.4%, OSK +4.8%, AXL +4.8%, MOT +4.7%; Trading down -- RZ -21.8%, SRZ -20.9%, SCHN -7.2%, PSEC -6.8%, ASBC -6.4%, UAUA -6.1%, UEC -5.4%DJ30 -12.17 NASDAQ -1.81 SP500 -2.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/283 mln/1074 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/156 mln/1390

09:45 am : Stocks are making modest gains in the first few minutes of trading. The energy sector (+0.6%) and consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) are set on the sharpest ascent, while utilities (-0.8%) are on the steepest decline.

Treasuries are under some considerable pressure in the early going. The benchmark 10-year Note has already dropped 22 ticks, which has pushed its yield back above 3.5%, up nearly 10 basis points since the previous session.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for June just came in at 39.9, which is a bit above the 39.0 that was expected and up from the 34.9 that was registered in the prior report.

The June Consumer Confidence Index is due at the top of the hour.DJ30 +24.18 NASDAQ +9.94 SP500 +1.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1384/131 mln/765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1704/93 mln/901

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Stock futures continue to point to a flat start for the session. That's appropriate since the S&P 500 is up a mere four points, or just 0.4%, since June 1. However, the stock market has managed to gain more than 16% this quarter, which makes for its best quarterly gain this decade. There haven't been many catalysts to drive action this morning, but participants will get a key piece of data with the release of the June Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 AM ET. While the headline number will certainly draw attention, participants will also be keeping close tabs on the Expectations Index, which has been ripping in recent months.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April came in at 139.2 after a previous reading of nearly 140. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20-city Index declined 18.1% year-over-year. It was expected to decline 18.6%. Meanwhile, the previous reading was revised fractionally higher to reflect an 18.7% year-over-year decline. Stock futures remain flat against fair value.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Trading in Europe has taken a negative turn. The major European indices were trading with modest gains earlier, but are now down in broad-based fashion. France's CAC is currently down 0.5%. Financial outfits Societe Generale, Axa (AXA), and Credit Agricole are creating a strong drag. However, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is offsetting the decline by providing support amid news from Dow Jones that the company is restructuring its research and development process to boost productivity. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.2%. Automakers Volkswagen and Daimler (DAI) are primary laggards, while Allianz (AZ) is showing leadership. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.3% as its declining issues outnumber its advancers by approximately 2-to-1. According to The Wall Street Journal, BP PLC (BP) has won an oil field contract in Iraq. Shares of BP are currently down a bit. However, Reuters has reported that shares throughout Europe are still on track to log their biggest quarterly gain of the decade. That distinction comes as Dow Jones reports that United Kingdom GDP made its sharpest decline in 50 years by dropping 2.4% quarter-over-quarter. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.8%, which made for a 23% second quarter gain. That's the Nikkei's best quarterly gain since 1995. The Nikkei briefly hit 10,000 for the first time in two weeks. Fujifilm surged after Mizuho Securities raised its rating on the stock. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng finished 0.8% lower. Reuters reported that its shares logged a 35% gain for the second quarter; or, the best quarterly gain for the Hang Seng in more than 15 years. HSBC (HBC) and Bank of Communications were primary leaders in the Hang Seng, but its declining issues outnumbered its advancers by 3-to-1.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Stock futures currently suggest a flat start for the major indices. The neutral tone comes ahead of the Consumer Confidence Index for June (10:00 AM ET). Given that the personal savings rate climbed to a 15-year high in May, it doesn't yet seem that consumers are all too confident about job prospects and income potential, which could threaten consumer confidence. However, the consensus estimate calls for the latest Consumer Confidence Index to come in at 55.3, up from the previously reported 54.9. In other news, CNBC.com reported that the Treasury is planning to unveil its Public-Private Investment Program on Wednesday. According to the report, the plan is expected to include nine participants, including General Electric's (GE) GE Capital. Shares of GE are up roughly 0.9% to $11.86 per share in premarket trading.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30.

06:29 am : Nikkei...9958.44...+175.00...+1.80%. Hang Seng...18378.73...-149.80...-0.80%.

06:29 am : FTSE...4297.29...+3.30...+0.10%. DAX...4891.59...+5.00...+0.10%.

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