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 Post subject: June 25th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 5:05 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0940am est via a trade signal (Long position) from the trade signal strategies.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=223

My Trading Performance: +15.25 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Stocks Bounce Back
After several down sessions, Wall Street stages an advance, with consumer, commodity and tech shares leading the charge.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 25, 2009: 5:45 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, finding momentum after a week of choppy trading, as investors scooped up a variety of shares hit in the recent selloff -- including commodity, consumer, homebuilding and tech issues.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 172 points, or 2.1%. The Dow rose as much as 190 points earlier in the afternoon.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 19 points, or 2.1%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) added 37 points, or 2.1%.

Stocks have dipped over the last week as the more than 3-month old rally lost steam. But that selloff seemed to draw new buyers Thursday, thanks in part to strong demand for Treasury's $27 billion 7-year note auction, which sent bond yields lower. A rally in commodities and some end-of-quarter buying also helped.

"Having been down for over a week and giving back more than 5% of the move, with the end of the quarter approaching, people are stepping in," said Ted Weisberg, NYSE floor trader at Seaport Securities.

Stocks were mixed Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept short-term rates near zero and said the pace of the recession is slowing, but didn't say much else.

In particular, investors may have been looking for the central bank to announce an expansion of a program meant to keep spiking bond yields in check. Worries that rising bond yields -- tied to mortgage rates -- could derail a recovery has put some caution into the stock market after a 3-month rally that lifted the S&P 500 index 40% off of 12-year lows.

May personal income and spending reports are due in the morning from the Commerce Department, before the start of trading. The revised reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is also due, but it's not usually a market mover.

Ben Bernanke: The Federal Reserve Chairman told a House committee that he did not pressure Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Lewis to complete his firm's purchase of Merrill Lynch, as Lewis testified two weeks ago. Bernanke also denied having asked former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to act on his behalf.

Company news: Gains were broad based Thursday, with 29 out of 30 Dow issues rising, led by IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

Dow component Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was unchanged as the hearing about its purchase of Merrill Lynch created some investor concern.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings late Wednesday that topped expectations, as cost cutting countered the impact of slowing demand. Shares gained 9.5% in active Nasdaq trading Thursday.

A number of other retailers rose too, including Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500).

Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss versus a year ago and a smaller-than-expected drop in revenue. However, the company reported a rise in new home sales and orders versus the first quarter, sending its shares up 17.5%.

Toll Brothers (TOL), Centex (CTX, Fortune 500) and KB Home (KBH) were among the other gainers in the sector.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by four to one on volume of 1.23 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners four to one on volume of 2.27 billion shares.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose 15,000 to 627,000 last week, surprising economists who thought claims would fall to 600,000.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans receiving benefits for a week or more, rose to 6,738,000, after dropping in the previous week.

Another government report showed the first-quarter gross domestic product growth shrank at a slower pace than initially thought. GDP shrank at an annual rate of 5.5% versus the initially reported 5.7% decline. Economists expected no change.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.54% from 3.68%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets ended higher and European markets ended lower.

U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose $1.56 to settle at $70.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $5.10 to settle at $939.50 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Stocks managed to reverse modest losses in the first few minutes of trading to spend the rest of the day trading with impressive gains. There was some fleeting selling pressure heading into the close, but the effort was resisted and stocks finished near session highs.

Thanks to strength among retailers, consumer discretionary stocks(+2.9%) led most of the buying in the broader market. Retailers tacked on 3.8% after Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.08, +2.69) reported better-than-expected first quarter earnings.

Home builder Lennar (LEN 9.19, +1.37) provided leadership to consumer discretionary stocks despite reporting a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.

Meanwhile, Nike (NKE 51.28, -1.74) was a laggard in the group, though it beat quarterly earnings expectations. However, the company indicated that global futures orders dropped 12% from the prior year.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 were able to log gains of 1.0% or more. Financials had lagged for most of the session and even traded with a modest loss early on, but spiked into the close to finish with a 1.7% gain.

Bond markets also saw plenty of buying this session after a $27 billion auction of 7-year Notes saw better-than-expected results. The auction drew a yield of 3.33% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.82. Buying at the long-end of the yield curve pushed the benchmark 10-year Note up more than one full point, sending its yield more than 10 basis points lower to just above 3.5%. The 30-year Bond was bid almost two points higher, which dropped its yield 11 basis points to roughly 4.3%.

This session's broad-based buying also extended into commodities, which helped the CRB Commodity Index climb 1.4%. Energy-based commodities saw particularly strong gains as crude oil prices advanced 2.2% to $70.15 per barrel in pit trading. Natural gas prices settled at $3.84 per contract, up 2.2% after weekly inventory data showed a smaller-than-expected build.

In economic data, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 totaled 627,000, which is more than expected and up from the previous week. Continuing claims crept up to 6.74 million. Though that is still off of its record high, it exceeded forecasts.

The final reading for first quarter GDP showed a 5.5% annualized decline, which is a slight improvement from the 5.7% annualized decline that was previously reported. The revision came from a smaller decline in inventories than previously reported, but personal consumption expenditures were revised downward to show a 1.4% increase.DJ30 +172.54 NASDAQ +37.20 NQ100 +2.0% R2K +2.9% SP400 +2.5% SP500 +19.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2172/2.25 bln/517 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2460/1.23 bln/571

3:30 pm : Commodities made solid gains in pit trading this session. That has helped send the CRB Commodity Index 1.4% higher.

Underpinning the advance was a 2.2% advance in crude oil prices, which finished at $70.15 per barrel.

Natural gas prices also moved higher, thanks partly to a smaller-than-expected inventory build. Natural gas contracts closed at $3.84 each, up 2.2%.

The bounce in energy prices, along with a broadly positive bias in the equity markets, has helped energy stocks climb to a 2.0% gain. Oil and gas refiners (+3.6%) are among the best performers in the sector after snapping back from a sizable loss in the prior session. Oil and gas drillers (+3.7%) are building on their gains from the previous session.

As for precious metals, gold prices advanced 0.5% to settle at $939.50 per ounce, while silver prices tacked on 0.7% to settle near $14.00 per ounce. Gold and silver company Newmont Mining (NEM 42.91, +0.89) is up more than 2%, but diversified metals and mining companies are up 4.0%.DJ30 +162.79 NASDAQ +33.11 SP500 +17.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2112/1.82 bln/560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2368/813 mln/633

3:00 pm : Data for tomorrow is relatively light since personal income and spending data for May make up Friday's economic calendar and only a few companies are scheduled to release quarterly earnings results ahead of the opening bell.

The lack of news flow would ordinarily make for a quiet Friday session, but with end of quarter window dressing and the reconstitution of the Russell 2000, there could be some unpredictable and choppy moves to the week's final trading session.

As things currently stand, stocks are still sporting solid gains, but down a bit for the week.DJ30 +144.72 NASDAQ +27.44 SP500 +15.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2014/1.66 bln/644 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2302/734 mln/692

2:30 pm : Stocks are drifting off their session highs, which were reached just over an hour ago when the S&P 500 traded above the 920 level. The S&P 500 hadn't been above 920 since late last week.

Despite this afternoon's moderate decline, stocks are still trading with impressive gains. Retailers (+3.3%) remain leaders.

Health care stocks, up 2.5%, are also outperforming. Health care stocks are rebounding after faltering in recent sessions. Prior to the recent stumble health care had put together a string of strong gains that exceeded those seen in the broader market.DJ30 +148.05 NASDAQ +27.36 SP500 +15.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/1.50 bln/655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2268/667 mln/719

2:00 pm : Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only the financial sector is trading with a gain of less than 1%. Though financials are up a healthy 0.7%, the next closest sector by percentage gain is the telecom sector, which is up 1.0%.

Diversified financial services stocks (-0.1%) are weighing on the financial sector. Such heavyweights as Citigroup (C 3.02, -0.03), JP Morgan Chase (JPM 33.58, +0.12), and Bank of America (BAC 12.30, -0.05) have lagged the broader market for the entire session. DJ30 +168.45 NASDAQ +31.73 SP500 +17.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2006/1.39 bln/613 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2312/617 mln/658

1:30 pm : The major indices have moved another leg higher, taking stocks to fresh session highs.

Treasuries have built upon earlier gains, as well. Their latest advance comes in the wake of a $27 billion auction of 7-year Notes. The results of the auction, which were unveiled at 1:00 PM ET, were considered positive since the auction drew a yield of 3.33% in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.82. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up 22 ticks and yielding 3.60%; it had been showing even stronger gains in the minutes immediately following the auction results.DJ30 +184.48 NASDAQ +33.90 SP500 +19.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1993/1.28 bln/595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/569 mln/611

1:00 pm : Despite showing weakness in the first few minutes of trading, stocks have managed to climb higher as gains in consumer discretionary stocks have enticed buyers to enter the fold and bid the broader market higher.

Shares of retailers are seeing some of the strongest gains this session. The group is up 3.4% amid strength in Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.20, +2.81), which reported better-than-expected first quarter earnings of $0.34 per share.

Nike (NKE 50.71, -2.31) is a laggard among consumer discretionary names, though. The company beat quarterly earnings expectations, but said global futures orders dropped 12% from the prior year.

Lennar (LEN 8.90, +1.08) actually reported a worse-than-expected quarterly loss, but during its conference call the company indicated that there was a discernable uptick in sales at the end of the second quarter. Along with Bed Bath & Beyond, Lennar is a primary leader in the consumer discretionary space.

The 2.6% gain by consumer discretionary stocks comes in the face of ongoing concerns about consumer spending amid a challenging job market. Market watchers were given a reminder that labor markets remain loose with the latest initial claims report showing 627,000 claims, which is more than expected and up from the previous week. Continuing claims crept up to 6.74 million to exceed forecasts, but it is still off of its record high.

Meanwhile, the final reading for first quarter GDP showed a 5.5% annualized decline, which is a slight improvement from the 5.7% annualized decline that was previously reported. The upward revision to GDP was primarily the result of a smaller decline in inventories than previously reported. However, personal consumption expenditures showed a 1.4% increase, down from the 1.5% increase that was previously reported.

The latest batch of economic data actually pressured stocks in premarket trading, but the downward bias has been reversed and a broad-based buying effort has taken hold. In turn, all 10 major sectors in positive territory.

Even financials (+0.5%) and utilities (+1.3%) are sporting solid gains after trading with losses early on. NRG Energy (NRG 23.87, +0.43) has been a leader among utilities after Dow Jones reported that the stock was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The upgrade comes as NRG continues its efforts to stave off a takeover by Exelon (EXC 51.00, +0.85).

This session's upward move has the S&P 500 on track for its best single-session move by percent since June 1. However, stocks are still a few points shy of their weekly high and down roughly 0.5% week-to-date. DJ30 +136.79 NASDAQ +27.42 SP500 +15.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1926/1.15 bln/636 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2205/505 mln/721

12:30 pm : Gains remain impressive, with small-caps and mid-caps partaking in the ascent. They are up 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

The gains upward move by small-caps and mid-caps has been relatively steady. Some volatility had been expected for small-caps ahead of the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 tomorrow.DJ30 +149.71 NASDAQ +30.47 SP500 +16.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1946/1.06 bln/617 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2268/467 mln/652

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their gains and are quickly approaching this week's high of 918, which was registered on Monday. Stocks dropped 3.1% on Monday, though.

This session's advance has been broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 post gains. Advancing issues outnumber decliners in the S&P 500 by 7-to-1.

Participants are also pushing Treasuries higher. The benchmark 10-year Note is up a healthy 12 ticks, which has its yield down to 3.64%.DJ30 +146.46 NASDAQ +30.35 SP500 +15.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1919/942 mln/605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2252/411 mln/642

11:30 am : The major indices establish minor new session highs.

The consumer discretionary (+2.0%) and industrial (+1.8%) sectors are leading the way.

Fed Chairman Bernanke continues to testify before the house panel.DJ30 +86.00 NASDAQ +25.08 SP500 +10.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1781/792 mln/696 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2009/341 mln/841

11:00 am : The major indices remain in positive territory and continue to trade with respectable gains. However, the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming its counterparts for the second straight session, thanks largely to strength in large-cap tech issues.

Microsoft (MSFT 23.58, +0.11) is among the primary leaders in the Nasdaq. The software and programming giant outlined today its revenue recognition for its new Windows program. Microsoft said that for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 it will defer an estimated $200 million to $300 million of revenue.

Shares of MSFT recently had their target raised by analysts at Oppenheimer.

While large-cap tech is showing strength, financial stocks are showing weakness. The financial sector is currently down 0.6% as bank stocks come under pressure. Weakness among bank stocks has the KBW Bank Index down 0.8%.DJ30 +39.90 NASDAQ +16.67 SP500 +5.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1617/658 mln/771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/278 mln/1065

10:35 am : Crude continues to trade in positive territory and is trading just under morning highs of $69.75 per barrel. Overnight, crude received some price support on news that Nigerian rebels attacked a Shell pipeline.

Natural gas spiked at the open, but has pushed to a new session high of $3.95 per contract following weekly inventory data. Weekly inventory was just released at 10:30ET, which showed a small build of 94 bcf, below analyst expectations of 101 bcf.

Precious metals are trading with little volatility this morning as both metals are modestly higher. August gold is showing gains of 0.4% as it trades at $938.00 per ounce, while July silver is 0.2% higher at $13.98 per ounce.DJ30 +55.39 NASDAQ +19.04 SP500 +7.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1597/530 mln/717 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1822/225 mln/904

10:05 am : After pausing at the neutral line, stocks have managed to push into positive territory to trade with solid gains. Thanks to strength in retailers, now up 2.5%, consumer discretionary stocks remain in the lead with a 1.3% gain.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.79, +2.78) and Lennar (LEN 8.83, +1.01) are primary leaders among consumer discretionary holdings. Bed Bath & Beyond has found favor after it posted better-than-expected earnings results for its latest quarter. Lennar has mustered strong gains even though it announced a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.

The strength in shares of BBBY and LEN has helped overshadow such threats to consumer spending as challenging labor conditions. DJ30 +34.54 NASDAQ +10.73 SP500 +3.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/303 mln/712 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/141 mln/926

09:45 am : Stocks are making a push from negative territory to the neutral line. However, financial stocks (-0.7%) and utilities (-0.9%) are lagging.

Shares of retailers are sporting outsized gains. As a group, retailers are up 1.7%. That has helped give a lift to the consumer discretionary sector, which is up 0.8%.

Nike (NKE 50.36, -2.66) is a laggard among consumer discretionary names, though. The company announced last evening upbeat earnings per share results, but indicated future orders made a double-digit decline from the prior year.DJ30 -3.02 NASDAQ -1.95 SP500 -0.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1117/162 mln/1007 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/89 mln/1306

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. Stock futures point to a modestly lower start for the major U.S. indices. The downward bias comes in the wake of the final first quarter GDP reading, which was revised modestly higher to reflect a slightly less severe-than-forecast 5.5% annualized decline. However, the employment picture remains disconcerting with the latest initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims coming in at elevated levels that were above forecasts. Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak today, but his comments come as part of a testimony regarding Bank of America's acquisition of Merrill Lynch to a congressional oversight committee (10:00 AM ET). Results from a $27 billion auction of 7-year Notes is also due later today (1:00 PM ET). Market participants will be keeping an eye on the results to see how they might impact yields and affect borrowing costs. Treasury markets were disappointed in the prior session when the FOMC made it known that the size of its Treasury purchase plan remains unchanged.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. In overseas trading, European stocks are grappling with selling pressure. That has taken Germany's DAX down 2.3%. Declining issues outnumber advancers by 4-to-1 in the German bourse. In France, the CAC is down 2.2% amid broad-based weakness. However, BNP Paribas is lending some support. Its recent string of gains has limited its week-to-date loss to just 0.4%, while the CAC has lost more than 3% this week. In Britain, HSBC (HBC) is a primary laggard and is helping to drag the FTSE to a 1.4% loss. Stocks were able to make solid gains in Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 1.0%, led by mining and technology stocks. Japan's Nikkei climbed 2.2%. Exporters like automakers Honda Motor (HMC) and Toyota Motor (TM) got a boost from a weaker yen. Meanwhile, Aozora Bank and Shinsei Bank benefited from news that they pair is in merger talks. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.1% higher. Reports of strong new lending in mainland China continued to drive up mainland property and banking stocks.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. The final reading for first quarter GDP came in with a 5.5% annualized decline, which is a slight improvement from the 5.7% annualized decline that was previously reported and also below the 5.7% decline that was widely expected. Personal consumption for the first quarter was revised modestly lower to reflect a 1.4% increase. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 totaled 627,000, which is above the 600,000 claims that were expected. Initial claims in the prior week were revised upward to reflect 612,000 claims. This is the second straight week that initial claims have increased. On a related note, continuing claims crept up to 6.74 million from 6.71 million the previous week. The latest claims total was expected to come in at 6.71 million. Still, continuing claims remain modestly off of their record high, which was reached earlier this month when claims totaled 6.84 million. Stock futures have pulled back a bit in the wake of the data's release.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. The final reading for first quarter GDP is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. The 5.7% annualized decline for the quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Weekly jobless claims data are also due at the bottom of the hour. Later this morning, Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the a congressional committee regarding the government's rescue of Bank of America (BAC) and the company's acquisition of Merrill Lynch (10:00 AM ET). In earnings news, Nike (NKE) announced last night fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.99 per share, which is $0.03 better than the consensus of $0.96 per share. However, worldwide futures orders for athletic footwear and apparel, scheduled for delivery from June through November, totaled $7.8 billion, which is 12% lower than orders reported for the same period last year. Shares of NKE are down more than 4% to $50.85 per share in premarket trading. Broader market stock futures are currently flat.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9796.08...+205.80...+2.20%. Hang Seng...18275.03...+382.90...+2.10%.

06:38 am : FTSE...4241.91...-39.10...-0.90%. DAX...4761.25...-74.80...-1.50%.

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