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 Post subject: June 22nd Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:22 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

5min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred back on June 18th Thursday @ 1000am est...the same as Friday's price action being controlled by the same key change in supply/demand.

Unfortunately, I missed the first hour of trading today and that big initial price drop soon after the opening bell of the regular trading hour session.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=220

My Trading Performance: +11.50 Emini ES points

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Economic Fears Slam Stocks
World Bank cuts global growth forecast, triggering a big selloff. Dow falls 200 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lose more than 3%.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 22, 2009: 6:01 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks sank Monday, ending at three-week lows, as the World Bank's weak outlook on global growth and a selloff in commodity prices sent investors heading for the exits.

Oil and gold prices slumped and the dollar was mixed. Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safety, sending the corresponding yields lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 200 points, or 2.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 28 points, or 3%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 61 points, or 3.4%.

The World Bank cut its 2009 forecast, predicting that global growth will shrink by 2.9% versus its earlier forecast for a 1.7% contraction. Global trade is expected to plummet 9.7% this year, it said. Developing countries have been especially hard, with the exception of booming China and India.

The forecast sent European markets tumbling as well, while Asian markets ended higher.

"The World Bank news today was pretty major, but it's not just today's news that is causing the selling," said Gary Webb, CEO at Webb Financial Group.

He said that stocks have been falling for several sessions now as investor sentiment has gotten more negative.

"If we don't see something good here in the next few days to cause a rebound, then I think we'll see a bigger pullback," he said. "Even one positive report would help. It wouldn't send stocks flying but it would help limit the decline."

Stocks were mixed Friday at the end of the first down week in a month on Wall Street. A three-month rally propelled the S&P 500 by as much as 40% off of 12-year lows. But the advance has lost steam lately as investors have worried that the recession may stretch on longer than anticipated.

"Every time there's a blip economically, the market sells off," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

"But I also think we were ready for a pullback," he said. "You don't get 30 or 40 percent rallies without a pullback."

The S&P 500 has now lost 6.6% off the highs from 2 weeks ago. Kiddoo said he thinks the broad index could end up pulling back a total of 10% to 15% before the selloff runs its course.

On the move: Stock declines were broad based, with 27 out of 30 Dow issues falling, led by Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), which fell in tune with the price of oil.

Other big Dow losers included Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) said it sold more than 1 million copies of its new iPhone 3GS in the first three days it was on sale, in what was being described as the most successful launch of a smartphone ever. Apple shares fell modestly.

A number of financial stocks plunged, including American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

The KBW Bank sector index fell 6.7%.

Walgreen shares slipped after it posted a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly profits.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by nearly eight to one on volume of 1.40 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than five to one on volume of 2.36 billion shares.

Economy: No economic reports were due Monday, with readings on housing, consumer spending and the labor market due later in the week.

The Federal Reserve Board meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss interest-rate policy with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at historic lows near zero. But as usual, what the bankers say in the statement about the economy will be key.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.70% from 3.83% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell to a two-week low, tumbling $2.62, or 3.8%, to settle at $66.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The July contract expired Monday. August becomes the active trading month Tuesday.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $15.20 to settle at $921 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell against the yen.

Gas prices retreated for the first time in 55 days, falling three-tenths of a percent to $2.69 per gallon, according to AAA. Prices had risen 32% since April 29.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The S&P 500 moved sharply lower in broad-based fashion, which took it below the key 900 level for the first time this month. With sellers in control, the session culminated in the stock market's worst single-session percentage loss in two months.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 10-to-1 in the S&P 500. Losses were steepest among financial issues, which shed 6.2% as they steadily descended throughout the entire session. Diversified financial services (-7.5%) and specialized finance (-7.3%) made up some of the weakest performing stocks in the financial sector. Financial stocks are down more than 7% month-to-date, but still up nearly 50% from their March lows, making them ripe for plenty more profit taking.

Energy stocks and materials stocks showed weakness for the entire session. The lost a respective 4.6% and 5.3% amid broader market weakness and a drop in commodities prices, which were undercut by a stronger U.S. dollar.

With the greenback up 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies, the CRB Commodity Index dropped 2.7% in its sharpest downward move in more than two weeks. Oil prices showed particular weakness; July contract prices shed 3.6% to settle at $67.06 per barrel before expiring, while August contract prices settled 3.8% lower at $67.33 per barrel.

The negative bias in the broader market certainly wasn't helped by news that the World Bank cut its forecast for major economies like that of the U.S. The news seemed to embolden the efforts of sellers, who just last week handed stocks their first weekly decline in five weeks. The latest selling effort led the S&P 500 to breach the 900 level, which marks the approximate intersection of the downward sloping 200-day moving average and the upward sloping 50-day moving average.

The only pockets of strength this session were found among defensive-oriented sectors. Utilities had been sporting enviable gains for most of the session, but surrendered them into the close and finished unchanged.

Telecom tacked on 0.5% as the only major sector to finish in the green.

Consumer staples stocks, also considered defensive, slipped 0.8%. Drug retailer Walgreen (WAG 29.64, -1.79) weighed on the group after posting quarterly earnings results that missed the consensus estimate.

Health care stocks, which have shown relative strength in recent sessions, fell 2.0%. Pharmaceutical stocks finished 1.5% lower amid news from The Wall Street Journal that the group will cut Medicaid costs as a proactive measure against more damaging industry reform.

There weren't any economic reports released today, but the release of May existing home sales data on Tuesday will start a steady flow of reports for the coming days. DJ30 -200.72 NASDAQ -61.78 NQ100 -3.0% R2K -3.9% SP400 -3.7% SP500 -28.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/2.32 bln/2264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 345/1.40 bln/2703

3:30 pm : The telecom services and utilities sectors are the only two sectors trading in positive territory, up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the financials, materials and energy sectors have been the hardest hit this session, down 5.1%, 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively.

Underpinning the weakness in energy and materials, commodities also faced significant selling pressure this session. Energy commodities traded 3.4% lower, moving steadily lower throughout the session. July crude oil contracts, which expired at the close of the pit trade, finished down 3.6% to $67.06 per barrel. The new front month contract, which actually saw higher volume this session, closed down 3.8% to 67.33 per barrel. July natural gas futures fell 2.8% to close at $3.93 per contract.

Precious metals experienced similar weakness, down 2.4% on the session. July silver traded down 3.5% to $13.70 per ounce, very near its session low of $13.68 per ounce. August gold plummeted more than $10 in the overnight trade and opened the pit trade substantially lower. The futures contracts traded essentially flat, still down considerably, throughout the session and closed at $921.50 per ounce, down 1.6%.DJ30 -167.85 NASDAQ -53.20 SP500 -23.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 435/1.86 bln/2249 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/880 mln/2634

3:00 pm : As the market heads into the final hour of trading, sellers still have firm control and the major averages can't seem to stage a meaningful rally. There just hasn't been any notable, positive catalyst to push the market higher on this slow news day.

Because of this, investors and traders have mostly taken their cues from technical levels and movements today. Despite a brief push upward, the S&P 500 could only threaten to break that key 900 level.DJ30 -167.32 NASDAQ -52.44 SP500 -23.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 219.5/1697.2/147.6 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 70.4/784.1/710.7

2:30 pm : While off their session lows, the major averages are still trading with steep losses this afternoon as the S&P 500 remains under the key 900 level. Losses are broad based, although energy and health care stocks are particularly weak.

There have been few areas of strength today, with investors finding safe havens mostly in defensive stocks. One sector that has otuperformed today is telecom services, with modest gains in large cap names such as Verizon (VZ 30.07, +0.41) and AT&T (T 24.08, +0.04).DJ30 -162.11 NASDAQ -52.21 SP500 -23.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 195/1574/1373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 58/716/653

2:00 pm : The major indices have pulled up from their session lows, but continue to trade with significant losses. Meanwhile, buying has picked up a bit in Treasuries, which has helped the benchmark 10-year Note climb 23 ticks higher.

The 10-year Note is now yielding 3.69%, which is more than 250 basis points above the 1.13% that the two-year Note is yielding.

Even farther out on the yield curve, the 30-year Bond is up more than one full point, which has pushed its yield down to 4.44%.DJ30 -173.52 NASDAQ -55.45 SP500 -24.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 404/1.46 bln/2244 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/662 mln/2638

1:30 pm : Mining giant Anglo American (AAUK 13.52, +0.19) has rejected an invitation from Xstrata to merge, according to Dow Jones. Shares of AAUK are steadily paring their gains into the afternoon. The stock actually climbed 4.6% on London's FTSE, where the stock was a primary source of support.

Despite its descent in U.S. trading, shares of AAUK are still outshining other diversified metals and mining stocks, which are down 10.4%.DJ30 -183.27 NASDAQ -58.22 SP500 -25.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 393/1.31 bln/2250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 352/619 mln/2646

1:00 pm : A lack of upbeat headlines has allowed participants to take control of the session. In turn, losses have been deep and broad-based, leaving stocks to test a major technical hurdle.

Stocks have been under pressure since the opening bell. The selling effort was shared in Europe as major global exchanges showed weakness in the wake of the World Bank's downwardly revised forecast for the major economies. The latest slide in Europe and in the U.S. extends last week's decline.

Broad-based losses have taken the S&P 500 below the 900 level, which marks the approximate intersection of the downward sloping 200-day moving average and the upward sloping 50-day moving average. The 900 level was last seen in late May, but it was touched as stocks came from the underside.

This session's losses have been most severe among energy stocks (-4.2%) and materials stocks (-4.5%), which have been weakened by a drop in commodity prices following a bounce by the U.S. dollar.

While the Dollar Index is up 0.7%, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.8%. Crude oil prices are seeing particular weakness. Contracts for July delivery are pricing oil 4.0% lower at $66.75 per barrel. The contracts expire at the end of pit trading.

Financial stocks are also being hit with considerable selling pressure. The sector has already shed 4.1%. Its weakness is aptly reflected by the Financial Select SPDR (XLF 11.56, -0.48).

Health care stocks, which have shown relative strength in recent sessions, have managed to limit their losses. The sector is down 1.5%, but that's not nearly as bad as the losses seen in the broader market. Pharmaceutical stocks (-0.9%) were pressured early on, but have since recovered. The group's weakness came amid news that Medicaid cost cuts would likely be implemented as a sort of proactive defensive measure against industry reform.

Gains are limited this session. Currently, defensive-oriented telecom (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.6%) are the only major sectors to make an advance.

Treasuries have also found support, though. The benchmark 10-year Note is up a healthy 19 ticks, which has its yield back at the 3.7% mark.DJ30 -170.49 NASDAQ -54.17 SP500 -23.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 408/1.27 bln/2206 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/568 mln/2577

12:30 pm : Though trading with a sizable loss, the Dow has managed to keep itself from posting the percentage losses seen in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.47, +0.30), Verizon (VZ 29.88, +0.22), and Travelers (TRV 42.13, +0.05) are providing primary support to the Dow.

Pfizer (PFE 15.04, +0.04) is also providing some support to the blue-chip index. Pfizer's moderate advance comes after the stock traded markedly lower in the early going. Initial weakness followed news from The Wall Street Journal that many pharmaceutical companies will cut Medicare drug costs in an attempt to stave off potentially more burdensome cuts that could be part of industry reform.DJ30 -159.76 NASDAQ -53.33 SP500 -23.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 394/1.16 bln/2203 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 390/514 mln/2582

12:00 pm : Stocks are on the backslide after failing to sustain the support that surfaced as the S&P 500 hit the 900 level. The S&P 500 is now at its worst level of the month, down about 6% from its June high.

Energy stocks are now leading the session's decline. The sector is trading with a 4.4% loss at its session low.

Within the energy sector, oil and gas exploration companies are down 5.8%. Oil and gas equipment stocks are down 5.6%. Oil and gas drillers are down 7.0%.

The weakness among oil and gas services companies comes as crude oil prices drop 4% to $66.73 per barrel, which marks a two week low.DJ30 -174.95 NASDAQ -53.46 SP500 -23.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 389/1.04 bln/2176 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 350/466 mln/2609

11:30 am : The S&P 500 recently extended its downturn to the 900 level, but was able to find support there. The 900 level, in addition to being psychologically significant, also marks the approximate intersection of the downward sloping 200-day moving average and the upward sloping 50-day moving average.

Losses remain broad-based, and have even compounded in certain sectors. Among those seeing their fortunes worsen, financial stocks are now down 3.6%. The financial sector's descent is being led by specialized finance companies (-4.9%) and asset management and consulting outfits (-4.3%). Weakness is also considerable among life and health insurers (-4.4%) and multiline insurers (-4.3%).DJ30 140.72 NASDAQ -44.18 SP500 -18.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 414/887/2121 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 411/393 mln/2522

11:00 am : Utilities stocks have made their way to an impressive 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, the broader market remains stuck in a funk at fresh session lows.

The upward move by the utilities sector comes amid strength in electric utilities stocks, which are up 1.1%. Duke Energy (DUK 14.70, +0.29) remains a primary leader in the space.

However, shares of generation giants with nuclear capabilities like Exelon (EXC 49.65, -0.29) and Constellation Energy (CEG 26.65, -0.17) are under a bit of pressure following an article in The Wall Street Journal indicating that several nuclear utilities must remedy shortfalls in their plant decommissioning reserves by year's end. DJ30 -140.19 NASDAQ -44.09 SP500 -20.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 387/756 mln/2118 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/333 mln/2482

10:30 am : Stocks have pulled up from their early lows, but continue to trade with widespread weakness. Declines remain most severe among materials stocks (-3.0%) and energy stocks (-3.5%).

In addition to broader market weakness, the energy sector's downturn comes as July crude oil contract prices slip a considerable 3.5% to $67.15 per barrel. Contracts for August are pricing oil 3.3% lower at $67.72 per barrel.

Natural gas prices aren't helping the energy sector at all. Natural gas contracts are being priced 3.5% lower at $3.89 each.

Precious metals are also grappling with selling pressure, most of which stems from a stronger U.S. dollar. In turn, gold prices are down 1.7% to $920.00 per ounce, which marks their lowest point in one month. Silver prices are also at their lowest point since mid-May; silver contracts were recently pricing the metal at $13.85 per ounce, down 2.5%.

The weakness among precious metals prices has caused shares of Newmont Mining (NEM 40.53, -1.35) and Yamana Gold (AUY 8.63, -0.58) to falter.DJ30 -121.37 NASDAQ -39.90 SP500 -17.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 404/573 mln/2022 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 403/256 mln/2418

10:00 am : Stocks are extending their losses. The downward move has put the S&P 500 just a few points above the psychologically significant 900 level, which was last touched in late may when stocks crossed the line from the underside.

Weakness remains broad-based, but defensive-oriented sectors are showing relative strength. As such, telecom and utilities are both down a modest 0.1%. Utilities stocks actually made their way into the green, but their visit to positive territory was short lived.

Early movers: Trading up -- SUAI +58.8%, MEDX +17.4%, MNTG +16.6%, ONTY +9.2%, ERY +8.1%, FINL +7.1%, SMN +7%, DTO +6.7%, POWR +6.4%, ZSL +5.9%; Trading down -- LNET -19.2%, AEG -11.4%, FEED -11.2%, MTL -10%, SGY -9.5%, PDS -9.5%, BRY -9.4%, CLNE -8.9%, MFC -8.9%, HK -8.7%, CENX -8.7%, ALU -8.4%, EXM -8.3%, NGD -8.2%, PCX -8%DJ30 -119.10 NASDAQ -35.97 SP500 -16.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 424/342 mln/1902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 370/161 mln/2337

09:45 am : Stocks are down in broad-based fashion. Losses are rather sizable, too.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in the red. Seven of which are showing losses of 1% or more.

The steepest declines are being seen in the materials sector and the energy sector, which are down 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Their downturn comes as the U.S. dollar makes a healthy advance and pressures commodities prices, like those of oil, gold, and other basic materials.DJ30 -102.48 NASDAQ -29.74 SP500 -14.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 441/215 mln/1814 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 355/111 mln/2287

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.30. Even though the stock market eked out a gain in this past Friday's session, stocks still logged a weekly loss. That downturn looks as if it will be extended since stock futures are trading with weakness ahead of this morning's opening bell. The downward bias is being shared among European stocks, which are also extending a loss from last week. Part of the push lower comes after the World Bank called for a sharper contraction in the global economy than it had previously forecast. Major economies were made out to be the primary culprits in the downwardly revised assessment. Commodities are also showing a bit of weakness this morning; that comes largely as a result of an early, healthy bounce by the U.S. dollar.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.80. Broader market stock futures continue to show weakness. Shares of energy stocks are also showing weakness ahead of the opening bell. Integrated oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) were all quoted down 1% or more as crude oil futures start pit trading with a sizable loss of their own. Crude prices were recently priced roughly 2.5% lower at $67.80 per barrel. Gold futures prices are also down. Prices for the yellow metal were recently quoted 1.0% lower at $926.20 per ounce. Prices for gold and crude oil are partly being undercut by a 0.7% bounce in the Dollar Index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00. European stocks are on the slide after logging last week some pretty paltry performances. Germany's DAX dropped 4.5% last week and is down 1.8% in the current session. Deutsche Bank (DB) is leading a broad-based decline that has 28 of the 30 DAX components trading lower. In France, the CAC is off by 1.6% after shedding 3.2% last week. Energy giant Total (TOT) is currently casting the most weight on the CAC. In Britain, the FTSE is off by 1.3%. It declined 2.2% last week. Declines are broad-based in the FTSE with BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) leading the way lower. Royal Dutch Shell recently announced it has discovered a massive gas field. However, Anglo American (AAUK) is providing support after news indicated that Xstrata (XTA) is interested in a merger with Anglo American to cut costs. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 0.5% and Japan gained 0.4%. Car maker Nissan (NSANY) made a robust gain after the Nikkei business daily said it plans to invest up to 100 bln yen to produce electric cars at a plant in the U.S. Fuji Electric Holdings and Furukawa Electric surged on a report that they will team up and develop a power chip for hybrid vehicles. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.8% higher. Banking stocks led the way amid news that new lending in the mainland accelerated in June. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.6%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.80. Stock market futures point to a lower start for the week's first trading session. The downward bias comes amid a lack of overall news flow, though there have been a few headlines of note. According to The Wall Street Journal, drug makers have agreed to cut Medicare drug costs, which is pressuring pharmaceutical stocks in premarket trading. Walgreen (WAG) announced earnings of $0.53 per share for its latest quarter, but the results were a bit shy of the consensus estimate of $0.56 per share. The stock is still up more than 1% to $31.85 per share ahead of the opening bell, though. Meanwhile, Marvel Tech (MRVL) is up more than 3% to $12.40 per share in premarket trading after the company issued this morning an upside revenue forecast for its fiscal second quarter. The New York Times reported that the World Bank cut its forecast for developed economies, and Reuters reported that investment guru George Soros said the worst of the global economic crisis is over. There aren't any economic reports scheduled for release today, nor are there any fed speakers on the daily agenda. Data will pick up tomorrow, though, with the release of existing home sales data for May, followed by May durable goods data and May new home sales data on Wednesday. Wednesday also marks the release of the latest FOMC policy statement.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50.

06:22 am : Nikkei...9826.27...+40.00...+0.40%. Hang Seng...18059.55...+138.60...+0.80%.

06:22 am : FTSE...4298.96...-47.00...-1.10%. DAX...4784.86...-54.60...-1.10%.

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