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 Post subject: June 19th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jun 19, 2009 10:13 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

5min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1000am est via yesterday's (June 18th). It provided support and confirmed one Long signal late in today's price action to conclude the Quadruple Witching week.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=219

My Trading Performance: +7.50 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Stocks Struggle At End Of Down Week
A technology rally lifts the Nasdaq, but a selloff in commodities drags on the blue chips.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 19, 2009: 6:29 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- The Nasdaq surged Friday and the broader market struggled at the end of the first down week in a month for Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 16 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 3 points or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 20 points or 1.1%.

Blue chips posted slim gains Thursday after better-than-expected reports on the labor market and manufacturing helped counter a recent batch of mixed economic news. The revived optimism remained in play Friday.

But Friday was also under the influence of the quadruple options expiration, or "quadruple witching," a quarterly event in which stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time. It creates volatility in the underlying stocks, particularly toward the end of the session.

"We need to get past the quadruple witch and then next week we'll see where we are," said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Execution LLC.

"I think the highs we saw a week ago were probably the highs we'll hold on to for the near term," he said.

Since bottoming March 9 at a 12-year low, the S&P 500 had run up 40% through last week. But stocks closed lower this week on worries that the rally may have outpaced any signs of recovery.

Bensignor said that the market is at a critical point technically and is vulnerable to a bigger pull back in the short term.

Next week brings reports on housing, durable goods orders and the labor market. The Federal Reserve holds a two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy.

Jobs: The jobless rate rose in nearly every state in the nation in May, the government reported. One state -- Nebraska -- registered a decline and Vermont saw no change.

Michigan led the nation with a 14.1% jobless rate, followed by Oregon with a 12.4% rate. For the full year, jobless rates were higher in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

However, the labor market typically lags any other broader recovery in the latter stages of a recession, so the day's jobless numbers didn't seem to impact investors looking for signs of a broader stabilization.

A number of recent indicators have suggested the job market is starting to stabilize, but that hasn't helped the millions of unemployed Americans looking for work.

iPhone: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500)'s iPhone 3G S went on sale Friday, and was expected to sell as many as 500,000 copies this weekend, according to a Piper Jaffray analyst. The third generation of the iPhone features a better camera that includes video capturing and editing capabilities, a longer-lasting battery, voice-command control and a built-in digital compass.

The 16-gigabyte version costs $199 with a new contract with AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and the 32-gigabyte version costs $299 with a new activation. Apple will also still sell an 8-gigabyte version for $99.

Apple shares gained 2.7% Friday.

On the move: Falling commodity prices dragged on the underlying stocks, keeping the blue chips in negative territory.

Dow oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) slipped. Other Dow losers included Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500).

Components Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) gained, offsetting the losses.

Microsoft was higher after Goldman Sachs added the software leader to its "conviction buy" list, according to reports.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) all gained, along with the broader financial sector. The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index rose 2%.

Late Thursday, Research in Motion (RIMM) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and higher revenue that missed estimates. The BlackBerry maker also forecast current-quarter earnings that are above forecasts and sales at the low end of forecasts. Shares fell almost 5% Friday.

Market breadth was positive and volume was heavy because of the quadruple options expiration. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to two on volume of 2.13 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners three to two on volume of 3.01 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.82% from 3.83% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $1.82 to settle at $69.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $1.60 to settle at $936.20 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

In global trading, Asian markets ended mixed and European markets ended higher.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : The stock market surrendered an early gain of almost 1%, but managed to reclaim a portion of its gains in mixed fashion late in the day. Still, the rebound wasn't enough to reverse the stock market's weekly loss of 2.6%, which is the first weekly decline in five weeks.

Nonetheless, financial stocks and tech stocks showed leadership in this session's late advance. Financial stocks actually fell to a loss in the early going, but pushed higher to finish with a 1.7% gain, better than any other major sector.

Gains among financials were broad, but Blackstone Group (BX 11.94, +0.79) was a standout after The Wall Street Journal reported that China Investment Corp. is poised to invest $500 million in a hedge fund unit of the investment services company.

Tech stocks (+1.2%) traded with strength for the entire session, and helped the Nasdaq outperform the Dow and S&P 500. Microsoft (MSFT 24.07, +0.57) was a primary leader among tech issues after reports said that Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Conviction Buy List for the Americas.

Several semiconductor stocks also contributed to the Nasdaq's strength as the group recovered from the prior session's near 2% loss. According to North America-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers, orders for May improved from April.

Research In Motion (RIMM 72.78, -3.77) was a laggard among tech components. The wireless handset maker and marketer actually posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings and an in-line quarterly forecast following the previous session's close.

Health care stocks (+0.5%) resisted selling efforts and spent the entire session in positive ground, and managed to outperform the broader market for the fourth straight session. The sector's strength stems largely from reports indicating that health care reform will likely be less expansive than initially planned.

This session's weakness was primarily pinned against defensive sectors like utilities (-1.2%), telecom (-1.1%), and consumer staples (-0.7%). Energy stocks (-0.9%) also showed weakness, though.

Losses in the energy sector took root in a 2.6% drop in crude oil prices, which finished at $69.55 per barrel. Oil prices had been up nearly 1% in early pit trade. The downturn in oil prices came despite a weaker U.S. dollar, which slipped 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

The CRB Commodity Index was also unable to make headway amid a weaker dollar; the CRB fell 1.6%, giving it a weekly loss of 3.6%.

Trading volume on the NYSE was unusually high as more than 2 billion shares exchanged hands this session. During the last 50 sessions trading volume on the NYSE has averaged 1.5 billion shares. The spike in volume, however, came amid the quarterly options expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single stock futures, as well as the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.DJ30 -15.87 NASDAQ +19.75 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +0.6% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1568/2.89 bln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1868/2.13 bln/1117

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index is down 1.6% following a relatively weak session for several key commodities.

Crude oil prices started pit trade nearly 1% higher, but relinquished the gains to settle with a 2.6% loss at $69.55 per barrel.

Natural gas prices also faltered. Contracts closed at $4.03 each, down 1.5% after being up moderately in the early going.

As for precious metals prices, gold settled fractionally higher at $936.20 per ounce after oscillating throughout the session. Silver settled at $14.20 per ounce, down 0.3% and unable to capitalize on the U.S. dollar's decline.DJ30 -13.00 NASDAQ +17.80 SP500 +3.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1508/2.23 bln/1085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1798/1.31 bln/1155

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 has made its way back into positive ground, but the Dow continues to trade with a loss. The Nasdaq remains the strongest performer of the three headline indices.

The U.S. dollar has lost ground against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback was down moderately earlier today, but it is now trading with a 0.4% loss.

Despite the dollar's weakness, commodities prices have moved lower. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.5%. The CRB has dropped 3.5% this week.DJ30 -33.85 NASDAQ +14.52 SP500 +0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1471/2.08 bln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1732/1.24 bln/1197

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 has surrendered all of its gains, and now trades with a moderate loss. The downward move has been broad-based as seven of the 10 major sectors now trade in the red.

Losses are most severe in the energy sector, which is now down 1.6%. Its downturn comes largely as a result of falling oil prices, which are now back below $70 per barrel. Crude oil futures prices were last quoted 3.0% lower at $69.25 per barrel.

With oil prices under pressure, oil and gas exploration companies are down 3.2%, while oil and gas drillers are down 1.5%. DJ30 -52.97 NASDAQ +11.06 SP500 -1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1404/1.94 bln/1163 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1637/1.18 bln/1273

2:00 pm : The mixed action persists with the Nasdaq outperforming its counterparts thanks to strength in its technology components. Microsoft (MSFT 24.19, +0.69) is playing an influential part there as it has jumped on the news that Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Conviction Buy List for the Americas.

The main pockets of sector weakness today are the defensive-oriented utilities (-1.20%), telecom services (-1.0%) and consumer staples (-0.50%) sectors.

The quarterly options expiration today has helped lift volume totals, although the volatility that often accompanies the expiration hasn't been much of a factor.DJ30 -20.78 NASDAQ +17.82 SP500 +1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1553/1.80 bln/1037 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1798/1.10 bln/1102

1:30 pm : Financial stocks fell into the red midmorning, but have since rebounded to a 0.9% gain. Meanwhile, the broader market is challenged to remain in positive territory.

Energy stocks are underperforming financial stocks and the broader market. The energy sector is now down 1.2% as oil prices go on the retreat. Oil prices had been up nearly 1% in early pit trading, but are now showing a 1.5% loss at $70.30 per barrel.DJ30 -26.22 NASDAQ +16.00 SP500 +0.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1476/1.65 bln/1069 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1718/1.08 bln/1180

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 was up nearly 1% at its session high, but a recent selling effort took it down to the neutral line, where it was able to find some support.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is still sporting an enviable gain. Large-cap tech stocks underpin the strength, but semiconductors like Intel (INTC 15.99, +0.12) are also providing support. Semiconductors, as a group, are up 1.0% after shedding nearly 2% in the previous session. North America-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers disclosed orders data May that showed an improvement from April.

Research In Motion (RIMM 73.08, -3.47) is a primary laggard in the tech rich Nasdaq, however. Its downturn comes despite upbeat quarterly earnings and an in-line quarterly forecast.

Sealy (ZZ 2.20, +0.40) and CarMax (KMX 14.88, +1.79) also recently reported quarterly results. Their announcements have helped propel small- and mid-cap stocks higher by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

Health care stocks (+0.6%) continue to trade higher, marking their fourth straight session of relative strength. The sector has found support amid indications that health care reform will likely be less expansive than initially planned.

Trading volume is considerably high, but most of that is due to the expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single stock futures, as well as the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.DJ30 -26.60 NASDAQ +16.32 SP500 +1.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.56 bln/967 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1798/1.04 bln/1079

12:30 pm : After trading near session highs just over an hour ago, the stock market has retreated to a fresh session low. There is no particular news item to account for the downward move, but some volatility had been expected given that today marks the expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single stock futures.

Though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain in the green, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now in the red.DJ30 -10.73 NASDAQ +15.90 SP500 +1.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/1.46 bln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1788/1.00 bln/1076

12:00 pm : Small- and mid-cap stocks are having a solid session. They are up 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

Advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-1 in the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index. Sealy (ZZ 2.20, +0.40) is a primary leader among small-cap issues. The company provided investors with a rather pleasing quarterly report last evening.

Advancers also outnumber declining issues by 3-to-1 in the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index. CarMax (KMX 14.88, +1.79) reported this morning first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share, which bested the consensus earnings estimate of $0.04 per share.DJ30 +27.14 NASDAQ +24.24 SP500 +5.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1702/1.34 bln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2023/951 mln/839

11:30 am : Semiconductor stocks are snapping back after sinking almost 2% in the previous session. Their 1.3% upturn comes after North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment disclosed $288.5 million in orders on a three-month average basis for May 2009. The bookings figure is about 16% greater than the final April 2009 level, but 72% less than the $1.03 billion in orders for May 2008.

Meanwhile, analysts at Credit Suisse took a positive stance today on shares of Intel (INTC 16.06, +0.19) and Micron (MU 5.39, +0.13).DJ30 +43.69 NASDAQ +26.32 SP500 +6.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1718/1.22 bln/724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2053/905 mln/775

11:00 am : Gains among stocks were recently challenged, but buyers have responded and sent the major indices back to higher ground. The Nasdaq is actually trading at a fresh session high.

The Nasdaq's recent spike comes with the help of large-cap tech stocks, which have carried the tech sector to a 1.6% gain.

Microsoft (MSFT 24.30, +0.80), Oracle (ORCL 20.90, +0.65), Apple (AAPL 138.61, +2.73), and Intel (INTC 16.08, +0.21) are the primary leaders in the Nasdaq. Research In Motion (RIMM 74.88, -1.67) is a primary laggard, however. The downturn in RIMM comes in the face of better-than-expected quarterly earnings and an in-line quarterly forecast from the company. This marks the sixth straight decline in shares of RIMM.DJ30 +53.36 NASDAQ +28.57 SP500 +8.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/1.07 bln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2124/853 mln/671

10:30 am : The major equity averages have pared a portion of their early gains. Telecom (-0.3%) and utilties (-0.1%) are now in negative territory, while energy stocks dance along the unchanged mark after trading with a 0.8% gain at their session high.

The downward move among energy stocks comes as crude oil prices pull back. Crude prices had been up nearly 1% in early pit trading but are now up a more modest 0.3% at $71.60 per barrel.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices are also up modestly. Contracts were recently quoted at $4.11 each, up 0.4%.

In other commodities trading, gold prices are up a healthy 0.3% to $936.50 per ounce. Silver is up fractionally to $14.25 per ounce.DJ30 +34.01 NASDAQ +24.12 SP500 +5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1708/896 mln/628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2001/786 mln/727

10:00 am : Health care stocks are extending their early gains. The advance comes primarily from managed care companies (+3.2%), health care equipment companies (+2.2%), and health care supplies companies (+2.4%).

Overall, the health care sector is up 1.7%, which brings its week-to-date advance to more than 3%. With that, health care is now down just 0.9% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, financial stocks are on the backslide. The sector had been up 1.0%, but is now trading with a 0.3% gain as diversified banks (-1.0%) come under pressure.DJ30 +50.19 NASDAQ +26.84 SP500 +7.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1753/647 mln/485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2131/715 mln/537

09:45 am : Stocks are putting together some solid gains in an impressive start, which has nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trading higher. The advance is the strongest in the health care sector, which is up 1.4% as it outperforms the broader market for the fourth straight session.

Conversely, utilities stocks are lagging. They are down fractionally and make up the only major sector to trade with a loss. The downturn among utilities comes after they logged an impressive gain in the previous session. Duke Energy (DUK 14.58, -0.06) and Southern (SO 30.93, -0.16) are among the sector's primary laggards.DJ30 +50.94 NASDAQ +24.40 SP500 +8.17

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Stock futures point to a strong start despite a lack of meaningful news flow and trading catalysts. Opening to the upside would help offset the stock market's near 3% week-to-date decline. However, the positive start could come under pressure since this session's quadruple witching expiration may induce volatility and increase trading volume. As things currently stand, energy holdings are seeing support as crude oil prices climb to a 0.8% gain to trade at $71.95 per barrel in early pit trading. Managed care providers are also garnering some positive interest amid reports indicating that the Senate's vision for health care reform nixes some of President Obama's proposals. Gains in overseas trading have also helped bolster a positive bias ahead of the opening bell.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. The market has settled into a relatively narrow trading range amid a lack of overall news flow and actionable catalysts during recent sessions, trading volume has been remarkably low of late. During the last 10 trading sessions, trading volume on the NYSE has averaged just 1.1 billion shares, which is well below the 50-day average of 1.5 billion shares. Volume even remained low as the S&P 500 dipped below its recent range lows. However, market watchers can expect an increase in trading volume with today's expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single stock futures. The quadruple witching expiration can also add to volatility. So, participants should be careful not to read too much into any dramatic spike in today's volume or any volatile swings in intraday action. In addition, participants should also note that the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq takes place after the close.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Stocks in Europe were able to shake a recent fit of weakness in the previous session by closing higher. Those gains are being extended today. Germany's DAX is up 0.3% with its advancing issues outnumbering its decliners by 2-to-1. Power generation and production outfit E.ON is a primary leader; its up more than 3% in its best single-session advance by percent in almost three weeks. Conversely, automakers Daimler (DAI) and Volkswagen are primary laggards. France's CAC is up 1.1% in a broad-based advance. Energy giant Total (TOT) is leading the advance. Its shares are still down more than 3.5% week-to-date, though. Gains are also broad-based in Britain's FTSE, which is spiking 1.8% higher as more than 90% of its listings make gains. HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader in the group as it climbs nearly 2.0%. Shares of the financial giant also led gains in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which finished 0.8% higher. China Construction Bank also advanced. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.9% higher, thanks to banks and real estate stocks. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.9%. Mizuho Financial (MFG) gained after analysts at Goldman Sachs analysts took the stock off of their Conviction Sell list and upgraded the stock. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) also gained after Mizuho Securities raised their price targets the previous day.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. Stock futures point to a positive start for the major indices. Research In Motion (RIMM) announced after the previous session's closing bell that it generated an adjusted $0.98 per share for its first fiscal quarter. The results bested the consensus estimate of $0.94 per share, but the company expects second quarter earnings to range from $0.94 to $1.03 per share, which is in-line with the $0.97 per share that analysts had forecast. Shares of RIMM were down markedly shortly after the announcement, but the stock was recently quoted a more modest 0.7% lower at $76.00 per share in premarket trading. According to The Washington Post, the Senate's drafted health care reform plan calls for most to buy insurance, which nixes President Obama's public option. That has helped provide a modest lift to shares of Humana (HUM), Aetna (AET), and WellPoint (WLP) ahead of the opening bell. There isn't any official economic data scheduled for release today, but the International Monetary Fund indicated that the decline in the world economy is moderating, according to Reuters.com. In a simalar vein, officials from the European Union see a sustainable recovery without more stimulus, according to Bloomberg.com.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00.

06:35 am : Nikkei...9786.26...+82.50...+0.90%. Hang Seng...17920.93...+144.30...+0.80%.

06:35 am : FTSE...4352.49...+72.00...+1.70%. DAX...4850.21...+12.50...+0.30%.

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