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 Post subject: June 16th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:32 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

5min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1035am est yesterday June 15th Monday via providing resistance and confirming two Short signals for today's price action via the trading reports.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=216

My Trading Performance: +11.75 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Stocks Slide For 2nd Day
Wall Street struggles as improvement in monthly housing report vies with worries about the global economy.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 16, 2009: 6:18 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Tuesday, falling for a second session in a row on continued worries that the pace of the recession is not waning as much as has been hoped.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 107 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 12 points, or about 1.3% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 20 points, or 1.1%.

Better-than-expected reports on housing and wholesale inflation gave stocks a boost early in the session. But the advance was tepid and soon lost momentum as concerns about the economy reared up again.

Declines were broad-based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks falling, led by Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500). Dow oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) both slipped as well.

The markets have been rallying for three months as investors have bet that the economy is closer to stabilizing. Since bottoming March 9 at a more than 12-year low, the S&P 500 has added 35%, as of Tuesday's close.

But the advance has lost steam in the last few sessions on worries that the rally may have gotten ahead of any actual evidence of a recovery.

Markets had gotten "oversold" through March 9, bringing in buyers, said Haag Sherman, managing director at Salient Partners. But for the rally to have legs over a sustained period of time, economic data would need to come on strong, he said. And the fundamentals of the economy don't support that right now.

"The rate of decline is slowing and we are probably in a bottoming process," he said. "But once you get through that, I don't see what the catalyst is for growth."

He said that when the money from the Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus plan kicks in later this year or early in 2010, the market will get another push higher -- but until then the trend is probably "sideways to lower."

Wednesday brings readings on April consumer inflation, the first-quarter current account balance and the weekly oil inventories.

FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) reports quarterly results in the morning. The package delivery firm is expected to have earned 52 cents per share versus $1.45 a year ago.

After the close Tuesday, Adobe Systems (ADBE) said second-quarter sales and earnings dropped from a year ago. However, the software maker's sales topped estimates and earnings met estimates.

Economy: Tuesday brought a slew of economic news, most of which supported bets that the pace of the recession is slowing.

May housing starts rallied 17.2% to an annualized rate of 532,000, from a revised 454,000 in the previous month, the Census Bureau reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 485,000 starts.

Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, rose 4% in May to an annualized rate of 518,000 from a rate of 498,000 in April. That was better than the 508,000 unit annual rate economists expected.

However, the improvements were modest, with new home starts in May still down sharply from two years ago. (Full story)

In other economic news, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, gained 0.2% in May after rising 0.3% in April, the Labor Department reported. Economists thought it would rise 0.6%. So-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.1% in May after rising 0.1% in April. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%.

The 5% annual rate of decline for PPI was the sharpest since 1949.

On the downside, the Federal Reserve said industrial production fell a greater-than-expected 1.1% in May, while capacity utilization fell to 68.3%, the lowest level since the Fed started keeping records in 1967.

Currencies and commodities: In currency trading, the dollar tumbled versus the euro and yen. The U.S. currency had strengthened after weekend comments from the Group of Eight finance ministers' meeting seemed to support a stronger dollar.

The slide in the dollar propelled dollar-traded commodities.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell 15 cents to settle at $70.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $4.70 to settle at $932.20 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.66% from 3.72% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Othernews: In global trading, Asian markets tumbled and European ended mixed.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners seven to three on volume of almost 1.18 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than two to one on volume of 2.28 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The major equity averages started the session in positive ground, but after failing to push above midmorning highs sellers mounted an assault that took stocks into the red to finish at session lows.

Losses were broad-based for the second straight session. Trading volume was also light for the second straight session, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the recent moves.

Sellers focused their efforts against materials stocks again. Materials suffered more than any other sector this session by shedding 2.4%. The sector has declined almost 6% during the last two sessions.

Steel stocks have been a primary source of weakness for the sector in recent sessions, but they managed to advance 0.7% this session. The upward move came after Nucor (NUE 46.86, +1.11) issued guidance that was slightly better than expected.

Declining commodities prices certainly haven't helped materials stocks, though. Commodities started the session with solid, broad-based gains, but surrendered most of the advance. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index shed 0.2%.

Though consumer discretionary stocks didn't finish with the worst loss of the major sectors, they lagged for most of the session. Their weakness came despite better-than-expected first quarter earnings and an in-line outlook from Best Buy (BBY 35.84, -2.82). Retailers surrendered 3.1% and the consumer discretionary sector dropped 2.4%.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only health care (+0.2%) finished higher. Managed health care providers (+2.9%) bounded amid ongoing debate regarding health care reform.

There were several economic items out today, but none of them had much of a strong influence on trading. Housing starts for May increased 17.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 532,000. Building permits, meanwhile, climbed 4.0% to an annualized rate of 518,000. Both numbers bounced more than expected from record low levels. Still, participants remain cognizant that a meaningful and sustainable upturn in residential construction activity is unlikely to come about quickly.

Meanwhile, PPI data was below expectations with core data actually showing a decline, helping to calm inflation concerns amid the government's massive stimulus efforts. According to Reuters, the Fed's Warsh stated that inflation trends since the last FOMC meeting have been encouraging.

In other economic news, industrial production and capacity utilization for May both declined a bit from the previous month, but they were both on par with forecasts.

Tomorrow's calendar is lighter on economic data. The May CPI report headlines the docket.DJ30 -107.46 NASDAQ -20.20 NQ100 -0.9% R2K -1.6% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -11.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 753/2.26 bln/1876 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 848/1.18 bln/2160

3:35 pm : The major averages continue to trade with broad based losses on weak volume.

July crude oil contracts opened the pit trade at a session high of $72.77 per barrel before giving up all their gains. The contracts dipped below $70 per barrel for just a moment in the late afternoon before closing at $70.48 per barrel, down 0.2%.

Natural gas futures spiked at the open of the pit trade. They hit a session high minutes after the open at $4.39 per contract, then tumbled for the rest of the session. The contracts finished just above their session low, down 1.7% at $4.11 per contract.

Precious metals were able to notch small gains this session. But much like the energy commodities, gold and silver futures realized session highs at the open, and then trended down throughout the pit trade.

August gold futures closed up 0.5% at $932.40 per ounce and July silver futures closed up 0.6% at $14.12 per ounce.DJ30 -70.43 NASDAQ -11.89 SP500 -7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 823/1.86 bln/1822 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 936/841 mln/2072

3:00 pm : Health care stocks continue to trade with a solid gain. The sector is up a healthy 0.6%, while every other major sector is in the red with losses ranging from 2.2% (consumer discretionary) to 0.5% (tech).

Weakness is particularly substantial among small- and mid-cap stocks, which are down a respective 1.4% and 1.3%, according to the Russell 2000 and the S&P 400.DJ30 -73.08 NASDAQ -12.80 SP500 -8.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 827/1.68 bln/1804 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 881/748 mln/2108

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 has extended the prior session's loss to trade at fresh June lows. The Dow and the Nasdaq Composite remain a few points above their monthly lows, though.

Given the broad declines registered during the past two sessions, it might appear that bullish participants are becoming less willing to contest sellers' efforts. However, trading volume remains exceptionally low, suggesting that there isn't much conviction behind the stock market's latest moves.DJ30 -84.94 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -11.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 777/1.55 bln/1845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 806/687 mln/2173

2:00 pm : The major indices continue to trade near their lows. Losses are broad-based as declining issues outnumber advancers by 4-to-1 in the S&P 500. The weakness isn't as severe as it was in the previous session, though; more than 90% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 fell into the red on Monday.

Given the downturn among stocks, Treasuries have been garnering continued support. Currently, the benchmark 10-year Note is up 11 ticks, which has pushed its yield down to 3.67%. Less than one week ago the yield on the 10-year Note was flirting with 4%.DJ30 -74.29 NASDAQ -11.41 SP500 -8.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 857/1.41 bln/1758 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 887/612 mln/2075

1:30 pm : Stocks have extended their decline to trade at fresh session lows. Including the prior session's loss, the stock market has shed 3.4% this week.

During the course of the past two sessions, materials stocks have incurred the worst drubbing of any major sector in the S&P 500. Materials stocks have shed 2.2% this session, and 5.5% week-to-date.

Weakness in the materials sector comes as commodity prices come under pressure. The CRB Commodity Index had actually been trading higher earlier this session, but it has since faltered to trade with a 0.2% loss. The CRB dropped more than 2% on Monday.DJ30 -74.29 NASDAQ -12.22 SP500 -8.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 852/1.28 bln/1734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/553 mln/2084

1:00 pm : After struggling to find direction in the early going, stocks have fallen into negative territory for the second straight session as sellers move back into the action.

There isn't any particular news item or point of weakness to account for the downward move. Instead, the decline is broad-based with nine of the 10 major sectors showing losses.

Health care stocks (+0.6%) make up the sole sector in the green. Its strength comes as managed health care stocks (+3.2%) rebound from losses in the previous session amid ongoing debate regarding health care reform.

Shares of consumer discretionary stocks are seeing some of the most intense selling pressure. The sector is down 2.2% as shares of retailers drop 3.0%. Best Buy (BBY 35.85, -2.81) is a primary laggard among retailers. Though the company posted better-than-expected first quarter earnings, some investors were disappointed that the company didn't raise its earnings outlook, reaffirming an in-line forecast instead.

Weakness in Best Buy has offset the relative strength of homebuilders (+0.4%), which are benefiting from news that housing starts and building permits for May increased from previous lows by a larger amount than expected.

In other economic data, the May PPI data came in below expectations. Industrial production and capacity utilization for May were generally on par with forecasts.

Given the lack of overall news flow this session, the reports were expected to act as trading catalysts. However, the data didn't really cause much of a stir among participants. DJ30 -70.28 NASDAQ -9.87 SP500 -7.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 889/1.15 bln/1687 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 950/498 mln/1976

12:30 pm : The major indices have pulled up a bit from session lows. While the Dow and the S&P 500 remain in negative territory, the Nasdaq Composite continues to sport a modest gain.

The Nasdaq's relative strength comes as a result of gains in large-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL 138.22, +2.13), Research In Motion (RIMM 82.98, +2.60), and Microsoft (MSFT 23.80, +0.38). The strength of large-cap tech has helped prop up the Nasdaq 100, which is up 0.2%.DJ30 -22.52 NASDAQ +2.72 SP500 -1.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/976 mln/1308 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/421 mln/1493

12:00 pm : The Dow and the S&P 500 recently surrendered their gains and now trade with modest losses.

Within the Dow, 16 of the 30 components are trading with losses. Procter & Gamble (PG 50.67, -0.66) is a primary laggard in the group. However, IBM (IBM 108.57, +0.95) and Microsoft (MSFT 23.82, +0.70) are helping to limit the downward move by providing support.

As for the S&P 500, only the tech sector (+0.2%) and the health care sector (+0.8%) remain in the green. Losses are steepest among consumer discretionary stocks (-1.3%), largely due to a drop in retailers (-2.1%).DJ30 -28.34 NASDAQ +2.68 SP500 -2.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/877 mln/1251 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/377 mln/1508

11:30 am : The stock market recently climbed back to earlier session highs, but encountered resistance there and has since made a sharp downward turn. Stocks remain in the green, though.

Overall action within the S&P 500 is mixed, however. Only half of the 10 sectors trade with a gain. Currently, health care (+1.0%), tech (+0.6%), financials (+0.4%), materials (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.1%) are making positive headway.DJ30 +3.18 NASDAQ +10.06 SP500 +1.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/759 mln/1072 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1653/324 mln/1201

11:00 am : Trading remains choppy in what has thus far been a listless session.

Health care stocks, currently up 1.3%, are sporting solid gains, but the broader market seems unwilling to follow its lead. Health care is actually the third largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight; it follows technology (+0.6%) and financials (-0.1%), respectively.

Most of the strength in the health care sector comes from managed health care stocks, which are up 4.9%. The interest among managed health care stocks comes in the wake of reports that Senator Kennedy's proposal to expand health care coverage could cost $1 trillion, which could fuel opposition to presidential health care reform interests, according to Reuters. DJ30 +16.25 NASDAQ +10.96 SP500 +2.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1426/636 mln/995 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1732/270 mln/1095

10:30 am : The Dow and the S&P 500 recently descended to fresh session lows amid choppy trading, but have found a bit of support as they continue to seek direction. On the other hand, commodities are sporting solid, steady gains.

Wth commodities garnering support, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.2% after dropping 3.7% during the course of the previous two sessions.

Oil prices are catching a particularly strong bid, which has the commodity's per barrel price back near the $72 mark. Crude oil futures were last quoted 1.8% higher at $71.90 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are seeing some modest pressure after gaining in the face of a commodities-based sell off on Monday. Contracts were last quoted at $4.17 each, down fractionally.

Precious metals prices are pushing higher after slumping in the previous pit trading session. Gold prices are currently being quoted 0.8% higher at $934.00 per ounce. Silver was last priced at $14.21 per ounce, up 1.2%.

The broad-based gains seen among commodity prices come as the U.S. dollar hands back some of its recent gains. In turn, the Dollar Index is down 0.5%.DJ30 +6.43 NASDAQ +8.65 SP500 +1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1372/482 mln/978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/208 mln/1106

10:00 am : After moving higher the stock market is surrendering some of its gains, sending the Dow back to the unchanged mark.

Losses have intensified among retailers, which are now down 1.0%. Telecom stocks (-0.4%) are also now in the red, as are consumer staples stocks (-0.4%), consumer discretionary stocks (-0.4%), and financial stocks (-0.2%).

Early movers: Trading up -- LZB +25%, HAFC +15%, ALVR +12.7%, TEL +11.3%, KV.A +11.2%, CDII +10.9%, AEZS +10.4%, SOAP +9.6%; Trading down -- FCEL -15.7%, MMR -10.6%, AHT -10.4%, AGO -10%, HAR -7.8%DJ30 +4.69 NASDAQ +9.65 SP500 +2.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/283 mln/803 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1758/130 mln/917

09:45 am : Stocks gyrated in the first few minutes of trading, which threatened to reverse the stock market's initial gains. The major indices have since secured their footing and now trade with fair gains.

The early, upward move is generally broad-based, but shares of retailers are lagging the broader market by trading 0.5% lower. However, their decline hasn't entirely undercut the consumer discretionary sector, which is actually up 0.2%. The advance by the consumer discretionary sector comes with help from homebuilding stocks (+3.8%), which are benefitting from news that housing starts and building permits for May increased more than expected from previous lows.DJ30 +17.31 NASDAQ +6.05 SP500 +1.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1423/159 mln/732 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/80 mln/798

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Following broad-based selling in the prior session, participants are moving back into stocks ahead of the opening bell. That has the major indices eyeing a solid start. The positive tone to premarket trading was further secured when the May PPI data suggested less inflationary pressure by coming in below expectations. The core rate actually declined. Both housing starts and building permits for May were better than expected, but many remain mindful that sustainable increases in construction require clearing the housing inventory glut. Production and capacity utilization data for May just hit news wires. Production decreased 1.1%, in-line with expectations, after slipping 0.7% the month before. Capacity utilization came in at 68.3%, also on par with expectations. Corporate news flow has been relatively slow, although Best Buy (BBY) announced earnings of $0.42 per share for its latest quarter. Analysts had expected $0.34 per share, on average. As for fiscal 2010, the company expects earnings to range from $2.50 to $2.90, which brackets the consensus of $2.79 per share.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30. Gains are solid in Europe, where the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for May climbed 0.1%. In Britain, the FTSE is up 1.0% with help from Vodafone Group and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). BP PLC (BP) is also providing support as oil prices rebound after a two-day slump. In France, the CAC is up 0.8%. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary leader, but financial outfits AXA (AXA), BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale are dragging on the action. Germany's DAX is up 0.8% in broad-based fashion. Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Telekom, and Deutsche Bank (DB) are providing the most support. Action in Asia wasn't so positive. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index dropped 1.6% and Japan's Nikkei fell 2.9%. Exporters slid amid concerns about an economic recovery, leading Honda Motor (HMC), Toyota Motor (TM), and Canon (CAJ) lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed with a 1.8% loss. Asia's largest oil and gas producer PetroChina (PTR) dropped and offshore oil specialist CNOOC (CEO) was also sacked with selling pressure. Metal and coal stocks were also beaten down. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed a more modest 0.5% lower.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.80. The Producer Price Index for May showed a 0.2% increase, which fell short of the 0.6% increase that was widely expected, and marked a decline from the 0.3% increase registered in April. Excluding food and energy, the PPI decreased just 0.1%. The core data was expected to increase a modest 0.1% after increasing 0.1% in April. Annualized housing starts for May totaled 532,000, which was higher than the 485,000 starts that were expected. Housing starts for April were revised modestly lower to reflect an annualized rate of 454,000. Meanwhile, building permits for May climbed to a rate of 518,000 after reaching 498,000 in April. Stock futures continue pointing higher.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Plenty of economic data is on tap today. The May Producer Price Index along with housing starts and building permits data for May are due at the bottom of the hour. Industrial production and capacity utilization data for May are due later this morning (9:15 AM ET). The data are expected to provide participants with trading catalysts, especially amid a lack of corporate headlines. There have been some broader headlines of note this morning, though. The Wall Street Journal reported that the IMF has upgraded its view of the U.S. economy, while a separate article in The Wall Street Journal said the Bank of Japan upgraded its view of the Japanese economy for the second straight month and left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 0.10%. European banks continue to face challenges since, according to Financial Times, Eurozone banks face more than $283 billion in writedowns this year and next. Stock futures indicate a modestly higher start for the trading session.

06:26 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80.

06:25 am : Nikkei...9752.88...-286.80...-2.90%. Hang Seng...18165.50...-33.50...-1.80%.

06:25 am : FTSE...4338.73...+12.70...+0.30%. DAX...4892.15...+2.10...0.00.

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