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 Post subject: June 15th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 8:12 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

3min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0948am est via providing resistance and confirming one Short signal via the trading reports.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=215

My Trading Performance: +15.50 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Recession Fears Cripple Stocks
Worries that the economy is not likely to recover as soon as had been hoped drag on markets. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop over 2%.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 15, 2009: 5:51 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Monday as weaker oil prices and more geopolitical unrest raised worries that the recession may not be waning as soon as some had hoped.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 187 points, or 2.1%. After ending last week in positive territory, the Dow is now back in the red for 2009.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 22 points, or 2.4% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 42 points, or 2.3%.

Wall Street has been steadily rising for three months on bets that the pace of the recession is waning, with the S&P 500 up 40% during that period. But a lack of new evidence to support the rally has left stocks rangebound over the last few weeks.

"People are re-evaluating the run up," said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

In the short term, she said that comments coming out of the Group of Eight finance ministers' meeting last weekend were exacerbating worries about the health of the global economy.

"At the conference, some countries expressed interest in pulling back on spending and that has some investors worried," Caughey said. "We're looking for those mythical green shoots of the recovery and you have people saying they are going to take the fertilizer away."

She said the ongoing weakness in the labor market and the outlook for consumer spending were also in play. And investors are starting to conclude that second-quarter results due out next month are going to remain lackluster.

"I think a selloff was way overdue," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "There are some encouraging signs out there, but we are still in a recession."

In addition, geopolitical factors were in force, he said. "I think Iran adds fuel to the fire. But we also had comments from North Korea over the weekend about nuclear weapons, and that's a factor too."

A falling dollar has given a boost to oil, gold and other dollar-traded commodities of late, as well as the underlying commodity stocks. But the dollar was mixed Monday and the price of oil settled at $70.62.

Tuesday: A heavy spate of economic news is on tap, including reports on May housing starts and building permits. The Census Bureau readings, due before the start of trading, are expected to show modest improvements from earlier levels.

The June Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, is also due out before the start of trade. The release, from the Labor Department, is expected to have risen from May levels, as is so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

The Federal Reserve releases its reports on industrial production and capacity utilization shortly before the start of trading.

On the move: Oil stocks such as Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) retreated. The Amex Oil index lost 2.8%.

Other commodity stocks fell in active trade as well, including aluminum producers such as Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and gold producers such as Yamana Gold (AUY).

But, declines were broad-based. A variety of tech shares slipped, dragging on the Nasdaq, including Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) and eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500).

Intel and Cisco are Dow stocks. The Dow's other big losers were Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), Merck (MRK, Fortune 500), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500).

All but 2 of the 30 Dow stocks suffered losses, with American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) the two gainers.

Declines were broad-based across other major indexes as well.

Market breadth was negative and trading volume was moderate. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by over five to one on volume of 1.15 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by almost four to one on volume of 2.19 billion shares.

Iranian elections: The disputed presidential election has sparked violent protests in Iran, as reformist leader Mir Hossein Moussavi's declared loss to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has raised questions of ballot fraud. Iran has agreed to a ballot probe. (Full story)

In other geopolitical news, on Saturday, North Korea said it would strengthen its nuclear capacities, despite the U.N. Security Council's move to increase sanctions against it.

Currencies and commodities: In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen, following comments from Russia's finance minister that seemed to support a stronger dollar.

The movement in the dollar contributed to a retreat in oil and gold prices.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $1.42 to settle at $70.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $13.20 to settle at $927.50 an ounce.

The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas rose to $2.67 Monday, according to AAA. Prices have risen for 48 days straight, adding 62 cents, or over 30%.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safety in government debt. The 10-year note yield added 18/32, lowering the yield to 3.72% from 3.79%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Washington: President Obama will release details Wednesday of a broad overhaul of how financial markets are regulated.

On Monday morning, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called the nation's current regulatory system a "spectacle." Geithner spoke at an economic discussion sponsored by CNNMoney parent Time Warner.

He said that the recent stock market rally is a "broad validation" of the administration's efforts to get the economy back on track, but also said that the economy faced an "enormously challenging period ahead."

Health care reform is also front and center this week, including questions about whether workers' health care benefits should be taxed.

Economy: New York manufacturing conditions continued to retreat in June, according to the Empire State index. Conditions fell to negative 9.4 in June from negative 4.6 in May. Any reading below zero indicates weakness.

Other news: In global trading, Asian and European markets tumbled.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The stock market fell to June lows by logging its worst single-session percentage loss in one month. Most of the losses were registered in the first leg of trading, leaving stocks to spend the rest of the session moving sideways.

Sellers pushed against stocks in concerted fashion. In turn, 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished with a loss.

The selling effort was most intense against materials stocks, which dropped 3.5%. Commodities and basic materials stocks were pressured by an increase in the U.S. dollar, which came after a Russian official made supportive comments regarding the dollar's role as a reserve currency.

With the Dollar Index jumping 1.2% gold and silver fell to monthly lows. Gold dropped 1.4% to $927.30 per ounce, while silver shed 5.7% to settle at $14.03 per ounce in pit trading. Steel stocks sank 4.8% and diversified metals and mining stocks dropped 5.8%.

Industrial stocks also saw steep losses. The sector dropped 3.1%. 3M (MMM 59.31, -1.69) was a primary laggard and also weighed on the Dow. Microsoft (MSFT 23.42, +0.09) and American Express (AXP 25.23, +0.07) were the only two components in the blue chip index to log gains. The advance by American Express came after the company posted some better-than-expected monthly metrics.

Health care facilities stocks (+3.6%) and health care tech stocks (+1.9%) were able to garner some of the little support that was left in the market. Their advance came as health care suppliers (-2.7%) and health care equipment stocks (-2.9%) sank amid reports that President Obama is looking to cut $313 billion in new health costs.

Amid the steep and broad-based losses seen among stocks, Treasuries were able to find support, which continues to pull back Treasury yields from 2009 highs. The benchmark Note was recently quoted 18 ticks higher, which resulted in a yield of 3.72%.

Net long-term Treasury international capital (TIC) flows for April totaled $11.2 billion, which is far less than the $57.5 billion that was expected, and down from the $55.4 billion tally for March.

Overseas markets also showed weakness Monday as the major indices throughout Europe and Asia logged sizable losses following a weekend meeting of eight global economic powers, from which officials are looking at ways to unwind recent fiscal stimuli. U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that it is too early to withdraw stimulus, though.DJ30 -187.13 NASDAQ -42.42 SP500 -22.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 552/2.19 bln/2127 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 457/1.15 bln/2595

3:35 pm : Commodities recently wrapped up a weak session of pit trading, which was largely the result of a resurgent U.S. dollar. The dollar gained amid supportive comments from a Russian official.

Crude oil prices logged their second straight loss by dipping nearly 2.0% to $70.62 per barrel. Natural gas, however, shook the session's broad-based selling effort to surge 8.4% to $4.18 per contract amid value-based buying.

Meanwhile, gold prices fell 1.4% to settle at $927.30 per ounce. Silver prices sank 5.7% to $14.03 per ounce. Both gold and silver prices are now at fresh lows for June. Copper prices dropped 3.7% to settle near $2.29 per ounce.

The CRB Commodity Index has shed 2.2%.DJ30 -193.25 NASDAQ -46.46 SP500 -24.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 500/1.73 bln/2189 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 408/775 mln/2619

3:00 pm : Stocks remain confined to a narrow trading range, which has made for some bland afternoon action. Volume is also low on the NYSE; it is trending toward another below-average total.

Despite the lackluster action, the Volatility Index, which measures expected volatility, has spiked more than 10% this session. It is still down more than 22% year-to-date, though.DJ30 -209.87 NASDAQ -50.51 SP500 -24.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 474/1.59 bln/2205 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 379/705 mln/2643

2:30 pm : Sellers continue to make an apparent indiscriminate push against stocks, which has driven broad-based losses since the opening bell.

Even analyst upgrades have failed to win support for certain holdings. Semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.26, -0.21) is down after having its target price raised by analysts at UBS. ArcelorMittal (MT 32.91, -2.18) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank, but the stock is still down markedly. Analysts at Citigroup upgraded shares of Yahoo! (YHOO 16.30, -0.10) and AstraZeneca (AZN 42.94, -0.40), but the two stocks are also slipping.DJ30 -200.73 NASDAQ -46.87 SP500 -23.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 478/1.48 bln/2195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 382/646 mln/2628

2:00 pm : Losses this session are particularly steep among small- and mid-cap stocks. In turn, the Russell 2000 has shed 3.5%, while the S&P 400 has dropped 3.1%.

Within the Russell 2000, 93% of the components are down. Lear (LEA 1.38, -0.55) is a primary laggard.

In the S&P 400, 95% of the listings are showing losses. Fed Signal (FSS 7.41, -0.84) is leading losses. Some support is being provided by 99 Cents Only Stores (13.58, +0.27), though.DJ30 -210.48 NASDAQ -51.94 SP500 -25.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 452/1.39 bln/2207 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 379/596 mln/2615

1:30 pm : The major indices are still stuck in a narrow trading range. For the last two hours the S&P 500 has moved in just a three point range between 921 and 924.

Losses remain broad-based. However, shares of American Express (AXP 25.24, +0.08) have managed to push into positive territory. The Dow component announced earlier today better-than-expected data as its delinquencies continue to decline through May. Importantly, the company's write-off rate for the first two months of the quarter were below the company's guidance of roughly 10.5% to 11.0%.DJ30 -217.58 NASDAQ -51.47 SP500 -25.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 442/1.29 bln/2195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 362/552 mln/2618

1:00 pm : The major indices are trading sideways as participants hand stocks their worst loss by percent in one month. Widespread weakness has actually taken the S&P 500 to June lows.

Gold and silver are also trading at June lows. Gold was last quoted 1.2% lower at $928.90 per ounce, and silver was quoted 5.0% lower at $14.13 per ounce.

The weakness among precious metals reflects that of the broader commodities space. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down a rather steep 1.9%. That is weighing considerably on basic materials stocks, which are down 3.4%, more than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Most of the weakness among commodities and materials stocks stems from a 1.5% jump in the Dollar Index, which has gained in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency from a Russian official ahead of a meeting of BRIC nations. That is, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

In a meeting of eight global economic powers, reports indicate that officials are looking at ways to unwind recent fiscal stimuli, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that it is too early to withdraw stimulus. Still, the former point of interest seemed to provide an excuse for selling in overseas markets earlier today. In turn, the major indices throughout Europe and Asia were knocked markedly lower.

Economic data hasn't had any impact on trading this session. Corporate news flow remains slow.DJ30 -185.16 NASDAQ -47.08 SP500 -22.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 449/1.19 bln/2168 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 364/500 mln/2605

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to move sideways as it trades at its worst levels of the month.

The S&P 500 is now up just over 2% year-to-date, though it remains up roughly 38% since its March low. It also remains above its 200-day moving average and its 50-day moving average.DJ30 -205.64 NASDAQ -50.87 SP500 -24.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 416/1.09 bln/2189 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 334/457 mln/2624

12:00 pm : The major indices have been trading sideways in a rather narrow range for the last hour.

However, the decline among financial stocks has been rather steady for the entire session. Financials are now a bit off of their low, trading with a 2.4% loss.

The energy sector has also been moving steadily lower throughout the session; the sector is at its worst level of the day, down 3.0%. Crude oil prices are also down 3.0% and were last trading at $69.85 per barrel.

Health care stocks are off by 2.3% as health care suppliers stocks (-2.8%) and health care equipment stocks (-2.9%) come under pressure amid reports that President Obama is looking to cut $313 billion in new health costs. DJ30 -196.57 NASDAQ -50.23 SP500 -23.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 426/1.00 bln/2159 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 323/418 mln/2612

11:30 am : Stocks extend their declines in broad-based weakness.

All 30 Dow stocks are posting a loss, only one Nasdaq 100 stock -- Cephalon (CEPH 57.15, +0.72) is posting a gain, and only nine S&P 500 stocks are in the green.

Meanwhile, CNBC reports that the Treasury will require securities originators to retain 5% of credit risk on securitizations, adding that originators will be prohibited from hedging that portion of the risk. In addition, the Treasury will change GAAP to eliminate immediate gain on sales, requiring income to be taken over time on these issues, according to CNBC.DJ30 -215.32 NASDAQ -54.13 SP500 -24.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 398/872 mln/2140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 293/362 mln/2623

11:00 am : The major indices are easing up from session lows. Weakness remains wide-spread, though.

At its current level, the stock market is on track to log its worst single-session percentage loss in one month.

Given the downturn among equities, Treasuries are attracting buyers. That has the benchmark 10-year Note trading 17 ticks higher, which has pushed its yield down to 3.72%.DJ30 -190.91 NASDAQ -19.08 SP500 -21.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 400/711 mln/2103 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 279/292 mln/2594

10:30 am : Selling pressure this session hasn't been limited to stocks. Instead, commodities are also grappling with considerable pressure, most of which stems from the U.S. dollar's strength following comments from a Russian official that indicated the dollar will remain the primary reserve currency of choice. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.9%, which means it is now up 1.8% during the course of the past two trading sessions.

With the greenback mounting a strong offensive, the CRB Commodity Index has gone on the retreat to trade 0.9% lower.

Precious metals are being knocked around considerably. Gold prices are down 0.7% to $933.40 per ounce, while silver prices are down a rather steep 3.8% to $14.31 per ounce.

Energy is mixed, however. Crude oil prices are down 1.9% to $70.70 per barrel; they are still up almost 60% year-to-date, though.

In the face of all the selling pressure, natural gas prices are sporting an impressive 5.4% gain to trade at $4.07 per contract. DJ30 -152.21 NASDAQ -36.79 SP500 -16.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 431/513 mln/2029 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 317/213 mln/2503

10:00 am : Weakness is considerable in the early going. Approximately 96% of the stocks listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses.

Amid the broad-based downturn shares of Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 4.74, +0.59) are surging and seeing a spike in trading volume, however. The company hasn't been the topic of any grand headline, but its shares were mentioned positively last week by former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer. Shares of other regional banks are down 0.7%.

Early movers: Trading up -- JAZZ +36%, CAV +20.6%, BDSI +12.4%, MAPP +12%, KV.A +12%; Trading down -- DEP -10.2%, HOKU -9.8%, FEED -9.6%, ICO -9.6%, FSYS -9.4%, SOLR -9.4%, ABMD -9.3%, ABAT -9.2%, HMA -9.1%DJ30 -136.72 NASDAQ -34.11 SP500 -15.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 403/333 mln/1949 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 309/148 mln/2440

09:45 am : Stocks are trading markedly lower in the first few minutes of action. The downturn has been broad-based with all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 showing losses; tech (-0.7%) and telecom (-0.6%) make up the only two sectors that aren't down by at least 1%.

Weakness is most intense among materials stocks. The sector is currently down 2.5% as steel stocks (-3.2%) and diversified metals stocks (-3.3%) go on the defensive.DJ30 -117.98 NASDAQ -22.33 SP500 -13.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/172 mln/1753 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 332/88 mln/2325

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.30. Amid a dearth of corporate headlines and market-moving economic data the major indices continue to trade lower ahead of the opening bell. The downward move comes partly as a stronger dollar has led to a weak commodities and basic materials trade. Overseas markets haven't provided any support either, though.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. Net long-term Treasury international capital (TIC) flows for April totaled $11.2 billion, which is far less than the $57.5 billion that was expected, and down from the $55.4 billion tally for March. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury Note is being quoted 10 ticks higher with a 3.75% yield and the 30-year Bond is up 14 ticks and yielding 4.62%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up almost 0.8%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.00. Weakness is broad-based in trading overseas. In France, the CAC is down 1.6%. BNP Paribas and Danone are the only two issues to trade with gains in the 40-component CAC. Total (TOT) is currently leading losses in the French index. Britain's FTSE is off by 1.6% amid broad-based losses. Rio Tinto (RTP) is weighing heavily on trading, but AstraZeneca (AZN) is working to provide some support after being upgraded by analysts at Citigroup. In Germany, the DAX is down 2.0% as engineering giant Siemens (SI) slumps. Asian stocks have already concluded a downward session in which Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 2.1% as HSBC (HBC) slid. China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China were the only to components in the 42-member index to make an advance. In Japan, the Nikkei dropped 1.0% amid weakness in Tokyo Electronic and Kyocera.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.30. Trading ahead of the U.S. open reflects the weakness seen in overseas action. Pressure is particularly strong among commodities stocks, which are being knocked lower as the U.S. dollar extends the gain that it registered late last week. Corporate news flow remains slow, but investors are taking note of reports from the latest Group of Eight meeting. According to The Wall Street Journal, the G-8 is beginning to look at ways to unwind their fiscal spending. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that it is too early to start withdrawing stimulus for the world's top economies, according to Reuters. Economic news is also a bit sparse this morning, but the April data for total Treasury international capital inflow is due at 9:00 AM ET. Participants will be keeping an eye out for dwindling demand from China.

06:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.00.

06:34 am : Nikkei...10039.67...-96.20...-1.00%. Hang Seng...18498.96...-390.70...-2.10%.

06:34 am : FTSE...4362.36...-79.60...-1.80%. DAX...4955.91...-113.00...-2.20%.

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 Post subject: Re: June 15th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:04 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
VIX Climbs Past a Key Level, Signaling Trouble for Stocks
VIX, VOLATILITY INDEX, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE, STOCK MARKET NEWS
Posted By: Jeff Cox | CNBC.com
CNBC.com
| 15 Jun 2009 | 12:14 PM ET

The stock market's main fear gauge moved past a key level on Monday, indicating possible troubles ahead for the market.

And one options player with deep pockets is making a big bet that volatility will increase sharply, making this a tumultuous summer.
# Cashin: S&P's 'Break' Point Now

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, moved past 30, a mark it hasn't closed above since June 4. A VIX reading of better than 30 generally indicates high volatility that usually accompanies stock market drops.

Following suit, stocks lost more than 1 percent.

The joint moves in the VIX and stocks come just a few days after a big investor bet on the VIX caused tremors in the options market.

One trader on Thursday bought 20,000 July VIX calls at the 45 strike and sold 55 strike calls for an overall premium of 42.5 cents in a trade that cost about $850,000 to execute. The net impact is that the VIX would have to beat the 45.42 level by the July expiration for the investor to make money. The VIX hasn't been past 40 since April 21.

"The last few weeks we've come under 30 and we've been under 30 as investors became more sanguine in their approach," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "This was a standout trade that went against the grain."

While there would be no direct correlation between such a huge trade and the actual VIX movement, the bet could be indicative of a shifting mood.

VIX options premiums have been generally drifting higher, with trading last week on July calls for a 35 in the index exceding open interest. Implied volatility on the index also has risen sharply, also suggesting higher moves in the index and tougher sledding for stocks.

The inverse relationship between the stock market and the VIX was in full effect Monday as stocks fell on a stronger dollar and news that New York manufacturing activity had slowed more than expected in June.

While some of the data points have been better than expected lately for the economy, the New York Fed reading was a reminder that the economy still faces pressure.

"I would say the market's way too sanguine. It's pricing in way too much of a recovery when we haven't got the growth to back it," Wilkinson said. "It's somebody pitting his wits against the rest of the market. My opinion is it will probably look good in a few weeks' time."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31368564

© 2009 CNBC.com


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