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 Post subject: June 10th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:16 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1004am est via providing resistance and confirmed one short signal.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=212

My Trading Performance: +23.50 Emini ES points

Attachment:
061009NihabaAshiPnLBlotterProfit.png
061009NihabaAshiPnLBlotterProfit.png [ 31.54 KiB | Viewed 1583 times ]

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Stocks Dip On Inflation Woes
Bond yields jump, with the 10-year hitting 4%, and oil prices rise. Home Depot forecast, Chrysler-Fiat deal also in focus.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 10, 2009: 6:55 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks cut losses, but still ended lower Wednesday, as spiking Treasury yields and rising commodity prices added to worries that inflation could limit any recovery effort.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 24 points, or 0.3%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost almost 3 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 7 points, or 0.4%.

Treasury prices slumped, boosting the corresponding yields. The benchmark 10-year note fell 22/32 and its yield rose as high as 4% before ending the session at 3.94%, up from 3.86% Tuesday.

Yields rose after the government's sale of $19 billion in 10-year notes saw only ho-hum demand -- and Russia said it will cut its share of U.S. debt.

The spiking bond yields pressured stocks. But equity investors managed to recover from bigger losses by the close, a positive on a choppy day, said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.

"We've been seeing these (electronic) buy programs kick in at around 3:15 each day, with money getting put to work on down days," he said.

While this was encouraging, he said it was also telling that daily trading volume each day this week -- on the New York Stock Exchange -- has been among the lightest of the year.

On the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, losers beat winners eight to seven on volume of 1.22 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 2.4 billion shares.

Post rally, investors meander: Stocks are coming off the best 3 month run since 1982, as measured by the Dow industrials, and the best since the 1930s, as measured by the S&P 500.

The run up from the lows of March 9 has lifted the Dow over 30%, the S&P nearly 39% and the Nasdaq around 45%.

Although the momentum going forward is still with the bulls, new worries have surfaced over the last few days, said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

"The concern has been that the bond market is worried about inflation and the rise in commodity prices is adding to that," Wilson said. "There's a little bit of a worry that this will dampen what is hopefully the start of a recovery."

The concerns about pricing pressure overshadowed any relief Wednesday about Chrysler's completed deal with Fiat and Home Depot's improved forecast.

U.S. light crude oil prices climbed as high as $71.79 a barrel, rising along with the price of gold and other commodities.

Commodity prices have been rallying lately, due to the weak dollar and bets that the economic recovery will drive demand for so-called hard assets. But the rise in commodity prices also added to worries over inflation.

Concerns that rising borrowing costs could derail a tentative economic recovery have dragged on sentiment over the last few sessions.

Chrysler: Italian automaker Fiat has closed a deal to buy the good assets of the bankrupt automaker, after the Supreme Court cleared the way for the deal late Tuesday.

Fiat will take a 20% stake in the company to start with, but that holding can increase to 35% if the company reaches certain goals. The new company -- called the Chrysler Group -- will be majority owned by the United Auto Workers union. The U.S. and Canadian governments will also own stakes.

Chrysler is expected to start operating immediately.

Banks: On Tuesday, the government said 10 of the biggest banks were well-enough capitalized to pay back a collective $68 billion in loans received last fall at the height of the financial crisis.

The list included American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500).

On Wednesday, the Obama administration dropped its plan to limit salaries at firms that have taken bailout money and instead introduced legislation to give shareholders more say in executive pay. Washington attorney Kenneth Feinberg was named the new "pay czar."

Retail: Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) said it now expects full-year earnings in a range of flat to down 7%, versus its earlier guidance for a decline of 7%. Shares were little changed.

Economy: The Fed released its periodic "beige book" reading of the economy in its 12 districts. The report showed the economy remained weak or got weaker between mid-April and early May, although five of the districts said there are signs the pace of the recession is slowing.

Another report showed the U.S. fiscal year deficit is now near $1 trillion after a $189.7 billion shortfall in May.

The April trade balance widened to $29.2 billion from a revised $28.5 billion in March, the Census Bureau reported. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would widen to $28.7 billion.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European stocks ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $1.32 to settle at $71.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, building on earlier gains after the government's weekly inventory report showed a surprise plunge in crude supplies.

COMEX gold for August delivery settled at $954.70 an ounce, unchanged from Tuesday.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The major indices started the session with solid gains, but drifted into the red before gradually paring losses into the close.

Part of this session's weakness came as concerns that rising oil prices and higher borrowing costs associated with rising Treasury yields could stymie an economic rebound.

Oil prices eclipsed the prior session's 2009 closing high by finishing 1.7% higher at $71.14 per barrel. Crude prices also registered new intraday highs for 2009 by climbing to almost $71.80 per barrel shortly after weekly oil inventories showed a surprise draw.

Treasuries fell under renewed selling pressure amid news that the Russian Central Bank will cut its Treasury holdings, and a $19 billion auction of 10-year Notes proved disappointing. In turn, the 10-year Note shed some 20 ticks this session, which pushed its yield up above 3.9%. That means the yield on the benchmark Note has increased by approximately 80 basis points in less than one month.

The disappointing auction and rise in yields drove selling in the broader market, which left only the utilities sector (+1.6%) in the green. However, as the market pared its losses into the afternoon, materials (+0.1%), telecom (+0.2%), and energy (+0.7%) were able to climb back into the green and log gains.

Financials saw the worst loss by declining 1.6%. Consumer discretionary stocks slid 1.0%, despite an upwardly revised earnings outlook from home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD 24.39, +0.04).

Investors continue to look for signs that economic growth is actually taking root and, in turn, were uninspired by comments from the Fed's Beige Book that signs of economic decline are slowing, while several districts indicated that their expectations have improved.

News that the overall trade deficit widened to $29.2 billion in April from $28.5 billion in March also had little impact on trading. The latest number was in step with the consensus estimate, but reflected the ongoing economic difficulties around the globe. Moreover, the April figure was a bit above the first quarter average, so it will factor negatively into second quarter GDP forecasts.DJ30 -24.04 NASDAQ -7.05 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1038/2.38 bln/1624 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/1.22 bln/1636

3:35 pm : Aside from crude oil, commodities finished relatively unchanged on the session. Commodities in general traded higher in the premarket, but sold off with the equity markets at the open.

Like the rest of the commodities, crude oil pulled back from overnight highs in the morning. The July futures contracts initially traded up to $71.78 per barrel following bullish crude inventory data, but quickly pulled back to levels below $71. Crude oil futures managed to finish 1.7% higher at $71.14 per barrel.

Natural gas futures expiring in July finished 0.8% lower at $3.70 per contract.

August gold futures gyrated just below the unchanged level for most of the session. The contracts finished down $0.70 at $954.00 per barrel.

Meanwhile, July silver futures finished a quiet session at $15.23, up 0.6%.DJ30 -89.33 NASDAQ -21.50 SP500 -9.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 881/1.95 bln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1156/888 mln/1850

3:00 pm : Stocks are steadily climbing off of their session lows. However, losses remain broad-based as declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Currently, Wells Fargo (WFC 24.74, -0.92), Apple (AAPL 139.03, -3.69), General Electric (GE 13.31, -0.26), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 34.63, -0.63) are guilty of leading losses. DJ30 -68.32 NASDAQ -17.25 SP500 -7.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 901/1.78 bln/1747 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/811 mln/1786

2:25 pm : The major indices fell to minor session lows and then recovered a bit following the 14:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book.

Also released at 14:00 ET, the May Treasury deficit came in at $189.7 billion. This was slightly more than the consensus that called for a deficit of $181 billion and much larger than the prior deficit of $28.6 billion.DJ30 -95.38 NASDAQ -26.43 SP500 -11.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/1.60 bln/1857 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/727 mln/1903

2:00 pm : The Fed's Beige Book stated that the economy remains weak, but that the signs of decline are slowing. The Beige Book also revealed that five of the 12 Fed districts see economic declines moderating; several districts also indicated that their expectations have improved yet they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the end of the year.

Stocks have shown little reaction to the news and continue to trade at session lows. DJ30 -111.85 NASDAQ -28.61 SP500 -13.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 753/1.50 bln/1888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1001/676 mln/1967

1:30 pm : The major indices remain near their session lows, but energy stocks have managed to recover from recent losses. Still, energy stocks are up just 0.1%.

Utilities stocks continue to sport solid gains. The utilities sector is up an enviable 1.1%.

Every other major sector is trading with a loss. Five of the 10 are down at least 1%.DJ30 -66.66 NASDAQ -22.71 SP500 -8.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 810/1.34 bln/1789 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/599 mln/1799

1:05 pm : Despite a strong start, stocks have slipped into negative territory to trade with broad-based losses.

Financials were the first major sector in the S&P 500 to slip into the red. They currently trade with a 1.8% loss, worse than any other major sector.

Citigroup (C 3.53, +0.12) is having a strong session, though. It finalized an agreement with the U.S. government and will now launch certain exchange offers. The company plans to convert into common shares roughly $58 billion in aggregate liquidation value of preferred stock and trust preferred securities.

In other corporate news, Home Depot (HD 24.59, +0.24) has found support after issuing an improved outlook, but shares of retailers, as a group, still trade with a 0.9% loss.

Energy stocks recently surrendered their gains and are now down 0.1%. The sector had been trading higher amid rising oil prices, which are near fresh 2009 highs. Crude oil was last quoted 1.8% higher at $71.30 per barrel. A surprise draw in weekly crude oil inventories has helped support oil prices, though oil had already been trading higher ahead of the data's release.

As for Treasuries, a $19 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Notes with a yield of nearly 4% attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.6, which is below the average seen in recent auctions. The results have pressured the Notes and sent their yield to fresh highs for the year.

Rising yields threaten to stymie economic growth since higher borrowing costs could discourage investment. With that, the stock market has recently registered a fresh session low.

Participants still await the Fed's Beige Book, which is due this afternoon (2:00 PM ET). Participants already showed a rather muted reaction to news that the overall trade deficit hit $29.2 billion in April. Though the deficit widened from $28.5 billion in March, it was in step with the consensus estimate.DJ30 -63.03 NASDAQ -21.46 SP500 -7.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 845/1.25 bln/1733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/554 mln/1729

12:30 pm : The financial sector (-1.1%) has extended its losses and now trades with the worst percentage decline of any major sector in the S&P 500. Since financials carry the second-largest market weighting in the S&P 500, their downturn is acting as a considerable drag on the broader market.

Meanwhile, technology stocks, which are the largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, are currently down 0.5%. DJ30 -19.35 NASDAQ -12.41 SP500 -3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1001/1.12 bln/1560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/494 mln/1498

12:00 pm : Weakness is broad-based across several different asset classes this session. As such, stocks continue to trade in negative territory, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.9%, and Treasuries are under pressure, too.

The benchmark 10-year Note is currently yielding more than 3.9%, which marks a high for 2009. The 10-year Notes could see some volatility when the results from a $19 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Notes are announced.

Rising Treasury yields have caused concern among some equity investors. With yields climbing to yearly highs, some worry that the higher borrowing costs will choke off an economic rebound, particularly in the housing industry.DJ30 -21.32 NASDAQ -18.85 SP500 -3.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 883/1.00 bln/1661 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1334/446 mln/1569

11:30 am : Gold prices have completely reversed earlier gains and now trade with a 0.3% loss at $951.20 per ounce. That, along with a downward move by the broader market, has led to a reversal in the share price of Yamana Gold (AUY 10.35, -0.26). Yamana recently announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell some of its noncore assets.

The downturn in shares of Yamana is weighing on the materials sector, which is now down 0.8% after starting the session with impressive gains.DJ30 -14.06 NASDAQ -19.73 SP500 -3.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 831/876 mln/1683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1308/400 mln/1562

11:00 am : All three major indices have fallen into negative territory, which comes in sharp contrast to the broad-based gains that stocks started the session with.

Losses are the steepest among consumer discretionary stocks (-1.2%) and industrial stocks (-1.1%). Utilities (+1.1%) are sporting the best gains of any sector, though.DJ30 -19.96 NASDAQ -16.60 SP500 -2.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 809/716 mln/1656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1252/332 mln/1574

10:30 am : Crude oil prices are building on earlier strength after the weekly crude oil inventory data showed a draw of almost 4.4 million barrels. On average, a build of 100,000 barrels was expected. Crude oil prices are now up 1.9% to $71.35 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are down fractionally to trade at $3.72 per contract.

Meanwhile, gold is garnering support as it trades 0.3% higher at $957.00 per ounce. Silver is unchanged at $15.14 per ounce.

In broader terms, the CRB Commodity Index is down a material 0.9%.DJ30 +18.21 NASDAQ -10.67 SP500 +0.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/541 mln/1511 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/258 mln/1411

10:00 am : The Nasdaq has fallen into negative territory, so the major indices now trade in mixed fashion after starting the session with solid gains. The Nasdaq's weakness comes as Apple (AAPL 140.44, -2.28) goes on the backslide.

Treasuries are also under pressure, taking the benchmark 10-year Note down 4 ticks. Weakness among Treasuries during recent weeks has taken the yield on the 10-year Note from roughly 3.15% at the start of May to the more recent 3.88%. Treasury yields and prices are inversely related.DJ30 +42.09 NASDAQ -3.81 SP500 +3.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1019/253 mln/1254 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1607/132 mln/1062

09:45 am : The gains made in the first few minutes of trading have been pared, but a positive bias persists as nine of the 10 major indices show solid gains.

Financials (-0.2%) make up the only major sector to trade with a loss. Meanwhile, utilities (+1.2%), energy (+1.4%), and materials (+0.9%) are sporting the strongest gains.

However, gains are especially strong among home improvement retailers after Home Depot (HD 24.67, +0.32) improved its outlook for the year. Shares of Lowe's (LOW 20.75, +0.29) are trading higher in response to the encouraging announcement.

Home Depot also stated at its investor conference that the worst of the housing correction is over. Though the company caters to consumers looking to renovate their homes and isn't directly involved in home sales, the statement has helped win favor for real estate services companies. An in-line forecast and a $50 million at-the-market offering from CB Richard Ellis (CBG 9.71, +1.57) has also helped.DJ30 +47.84 NASDAQ +2.46 SP500 +4.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1067/200 mln/1172 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/107 mln/923

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Despite a slow pullback in stock futures, the major indices look as if they will still start the session with solid gains. The upward push comes amid what has generally been a bullish bias in the broader market during recent weeks. As such, stocks are up 2.5% month-to-date, and up 8% since the end of April. Trading volume has been lacking in the last few sessions, though, suggesting that there might not be much conviction behind the stock market's latest moves. Still, hope for an economic recovery continues to attract buyers, and has vaulted oil prices to 2009 highs. Oil prices currently stand at $71.05 per barrel, up 1.5% ahead of the weekly oil inventory data (10:30 AM ET). Participants will be looking for anecdotal signs of improved economic conditions in the Fed's Beige Book, which is due this afternoon (2:00 PM ET). Reaction to the April trade balance was relatively muted since the overall deficit of $29.2 billion was on par with expectations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. Stock futures have drifted lower from earlier levels, but continue to point to an upward start for the session. Shares of Home Depot (HD) are up more than 2% to $24.89 per share in premarket trading. The company has won support after stating that it now expects earnings per share from continuing operations to be flat to down 7% year-over-year. The company had forecast a drop of 7%. On an adjusted basis, Home Depot expects earnings from continuing operations to decline by 20% to 26%. The company had previously forecast a drop of 26%. The new outlook for adjusted earnings calculates to the approximate range of $1.31 to 1.42 per share, which is generally in-line with the current consensus estimate of $1.40 per share.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Due to a sharper slowdown in imports than exports during recent months, the overall trade deficit has narrowed from $62.5 billion in July 2008. According to the April Trade Balance Report, the trade deficit now stands at $29.2 billion, but that is actually up from the $28.5 billion deficit registered with the previous report. Still, the latest reading was on par with the $29 billion deficit that was widely expected. The news hasn't had much of an impact on stock futures, which continue to point to a solid start. Gains remain strong overseas. Germany's DAX is up 2.4%, leading the advance in Europe. The advance by the German bourse comes amid broad-based gains; of the 30 components to the DAX, SAP (SAP) is the only one currently trading with a loss. Shares of SAP were recently downgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. In France, the CAC is up 1.9%. Energy giant Total (TOT) is showing leadership, and financial outfits BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are providing added support. Britain's FTSE is also boasting a 1.9% gain; HSBC (HBC) and BHP Billiton (BHP) are primary leaders. According to Dow Jones, BHP Billiton announced a 58% cut to its coking coal prices. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng logged a 4.0% gain in anticipation of upbeat investment and industrial output data from China. Still, financial issues were the session's primary leaders as HSBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank all staged advances. In Japan, the Nikkei advanced 2.1% to close above the 10,000 mark. Mitsubishi and Fast Retailing were among the primary leaders.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. Impressive gains overseas are helping stoke support for U.S. stock futures, which are near their June highs and suggest a strong start to the session is in order. Oil futures prices are also pushing higher ahead of pit trading. Oil prices registered fresh 2009 highs of $71.65 per barrel in electronic trading earlier this morning, but are currently trading at $71.20 per barrel, up 1.8% from the close of pit trading Tuesday. The upward move in oil prices has shares of oil and gas equipment and services outfits like Haliburton (HAL) and National-Oilwell Varco (NOV) trading markedly higher in premarket action. Integrated outfits like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Hess (HES) are also garnering support ahead of the opening bell.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30.

06:36 am : Nikkei...9991.49...+204.70...+2.10%. Hang Seng...18785.66...+727.20...+4.00%.

06:36 am : FTSE...4500.12...+95.00...+2.20%. DAX...5120.86...+122.10...+2.50%.

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