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 Post subject: June 9th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2009 4:51 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0952am est via providing resistance and trade signals and then the market got lost in the price action after 1446pm est to the close.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=211

My Trading Performance: +3.75 Emini ES points

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Nasdaq Rallies, Dow Drifts
Improved forecast from Texas Instruments helps lift tech sector; investors breathe a sigh of relief that 10 banks can pay back their government loans.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 9, 2009: 4:21 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Nasdaq rallied Tuesday, while the broader market was little changed, after the government said 10 of the largest banks could pay back loans and after a positive Treasury auction cooled worries about rising borrowing costs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 1 point, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 3 points, or 0.4%.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 20 points, or 1%, with technology shares rising after chipmaker Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) boosted its quarterly sales and earnings outlook late Monday.

Stocks were mixed throughout the session after the government said 10 banks were well-enough capitalized to pay back a collective $68 billion in loans. But stocks moved to the highs of the session after a strong response to the government's auction of $35 billion in three-year securities.

The combination of the auction results and the boost from Texas Instruments was helping stocks Tuesday, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"TI really increased their guidance, which was good, but we're going to need to see more fundamental news like that to keep us moving higher after a big thee-month rally," he said.

Stocks have been on the rise since early March, with the Dow having jumped more than 32%, the S&P gaining 39% and the Nasdaq surging 46%, as of Monday's close.

That marked the Dow's best 3-month run since 1982 and the S&P 500's best run since the 1930s.

The gains have been sparked by a series of not-as-bad-as-expected economic reports and growing investor sentiment.

Although stocks have been drifting a bit and could see more of a pull back over the next few weeks, the tone remains positive, said Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co.

"Overall, I think stocks will continue to find buyers on pullbacks and the trend will remain up," he said.

Goldman said that historically, stocks tend to gain six months ahead of the end of a recession and for the first three months after a recession is over. Using data that goes back to 1901, he found that the S&P was always higher in the three months after a recession ended.

Banks: The U.S. government said Tuesday morning that 10 banks that received TARP loans last fall can repay a total of $68 billion to the government.

The news shows that the fear of an implosion has subsided and that the risk factor in financial markets has diminished, Goldman said.

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Bank of New York Mellon (BK, Fortune 500), BB&T (BBT, Fortune 500), Capital One (COF, Fortune 500), Northern Trust (NTRS, Fortune 500), State Street (STT, Fortune 500) and US Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) have confirmed that they are allowed to repay loans.

But only AmEx, BB&T and Capital One shares posted solid gains.

Banks that were stress-tested earlier this year should undergo another round of tests, a U.S. watchdog group said Tuesday.

The Congressional Oversight Panel said that recent signs that the recession could be worsening show the tests did not go far enough. In particular, the group pointed to the May employment report, which showed a slower pace of job losses but also that the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.4%.

On the move: The gains in Texas Instruments spread to other large chip makers, including Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, Fortune 500).

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose 4%.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) rallied 23% after it said that the former chairman and CEO of AT&T will be its new chairman when it emerges from bankruptcy later this summer.

The Dow ended near unchanged, as strength in tech and commodity shares was tempered by weakness in aerospace and defense names Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 680 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five on volume of 1.63 billion shares.

Chrysler: The Supreme Court delayed the sale of Chrysler's assets to Italian automaker Fiat, in a late-Monday move that threw a wrench into the automaker's plans for a quick exit from bankruptcy.

Under terms of the agreement, Fiat can ditch the deal if it is not finished by June 15. However, the company said Tuesday that it won't walk away from Chrysler.

In addition, Chrysler returned to bankruptcy court Tuesday to try to get a judge to approve the closing of 789 of its dealerships.

Economy: Wholesale inventories fell 1.4% in April, the Census Bureau reported, after falling 1.8% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a decline of 1.1%, on average.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.86% from 3.88% late Monday. Treasury bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasury sells $19 billion of 10-year debt tomorrow and $11 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.

The recent rise in the 2-year note has left the security nearly 1 percentage point above the fed funds rate, raising bets that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates before the end of the year, something stock investors don't like.

And the spike in the 10-year has caused worries that it may stunt a burgeoning recovery, as the longer-term bond yields are tied to mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates could dissuade homebuyers at a time when the housing market is just starting to stabilize in some areas.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets were mixed in late trading.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $1.92 to settle at $70.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settling above $70 a barrel for the first time since November.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $2.20 to settle at $954.70 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Amid light trading volume the stock market ascended into the afternoon, but petered out some of its gains into the close. Still, semiconductor stocks and materials stocks were able to finish markedly higher.

Semiconductor stocks traded with sharp gains for the entire session, helping the Semiconductor Index climb 4.5%. Their upward move came after Texas Instruments (TXN 21.02, +1.25) raised its second quarter forecast. That announcement came just one week after the chief executive from Applied Materials (AMAT 11.03, +0.17) made pessimistic comments about the semiconductor industry.

The materials sector closed 2.3% higher, better than any other major sector in the S&P 500. Its advance came as commodity prices climbed amid a falling U.S. dollar, which dropped a sharp 1.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

The dollar's decline was particularly helpful for crude oil contracts. Oil prices advanced 2.7% to settle at a 2009 closing high of $69.92 per barrel. That helped oil equipment stocks climb 2.1% and oil drillers close 2.5% higher.

Financial stocks (+0.5%) finished in mixed fashion following the Treasury's announcement that 10 of the 19 largest U.S. banks will be allowed to repay TARP funds. BB&T Corp. (BBT 22.45, +0.52), US Bancorp (USB 18.18, -0.17), Capital One (COF 24.05, +0.61), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.26, -0.13), Bank of New York Mellon (BK 28.79, +0.25), American Express (AXP 26.93, +1.28), Northern Trust (NTRS 56.36, +0.98), and Goldman Sachs (GS 149.31, +0.96) are among the companies that have received permission to repay TARP funds to the Treasury. Diversified banks tacked on 0.6%, but diversified financial services companies slipped 0.2%.

A $35 billion auction of 3-year Treasury Notes with a yield of 1.96% attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8. The benchmark 10-year gyrated in the wake of the announcement, but settled a few ticks higher with a yield of 3.86%. Stocks were hit with some selling pressure following the announcement, but the downward move was lost in the stock market's intraday gyrations.

Trading volume was exceptionally light this session. Slightly more than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. On average, more than 1.5 billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE during the last 50 sessions.DJ30 -1.43 NASDAQ +17.73 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.6% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +3.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/2.16 bln/1052 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1812/1.06 bln/1191

3:30 pm : With just a half-hour left in the session, stocks are on the backslide after steadily ascending to fresh session highs in afternoon trading. Commodities have already concluded a relatively solid session of pit trading.

Crude oil contracts closed with prices up 2.7% at $69.92 per barrel, which marks a new 2009 closing high.

Natural gas prices weren't as strong, though they were able to reverse early losses. Natural gas contracts closed at $3.73 each, unchanged for the session.

As for gold prices, the yellow metal finished 0.2% higher at $954.70 per ounce. Silver prices settled at $15.14 per ounce, up 1.2%.DJ30 +5.37 NASDAQ +20.38 SP500 +4.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1596/1.77 bln/1037 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/743 mln/1160

3:00 pm : The stock market recently made its way to fresh session highs, but has since pulled back. Even at today's best levels, the stock market failed to reach the highs it registered last week. Still, this session's gains remain broad-based.

Heading into the final hour of trading, less than 700 million shares have traded hands on the NYSE. Trading volume would have to double in the next hour in order to reach the average levels seen in recent weeks.DJ30 +18.75 NASDAQ +22.22 SP500 +5.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/1.6. bln/982 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1891/677 mln/1092

2:30 pm : Though the Nasdaq has moved past its earlier levels with relative ease, the broader S&P 500 has stalled upon reaching the highs it set earlier in the session.

Nonetheless, gains have become rather broad-based. In turn, nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are sporting gains; only consumer staples (-0.3%) are in the red.DJ30 +25.24 NASDAQ +22.35 SP500 +5.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1636/1.46 bln/977 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1894/599 mln/1081

2:00 pm : The stock market has made its way to fresh afternoon highs. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is trading just below its best level of the session with a 1.3% gain.

The advance by the broader market and the commodity index has taken the materials sector to a 2.1% gain and the energy sector to a 1.1% gain. The two sectors are currently among the best performers this session.DJ30 +15.95 NASDAQ +19.98 SP500 +4.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/1.35 bln/1002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1818/551 mln/1146

1:30 pm : Following a weak session in Asia and a mixed close among major European indices, the U.S. indices are trading flat to higher. That has helped the Dow Jones World Index climb to a 0.7% gain. The Dow Jones World Index is up nearly 10% year-to-date.

Excluding the U.S., the Dow Jones World Index is up 0.9% today. It is up more than 12% this year.DJ30 -5.51 NASDAQ +15.97 SP500 +2.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1543/1.24 bln/1033 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1727/506 mln/1216

1:00 pm : Trading has been choppy and directionless for the entire session, leaving the major indices to trade in relatively mixed fashion.

Though the Dow is down modestly and the S&P 500 is up modestly, the Nasdaq Composite is sporting a solid gain, thanks to leadership from semiconductor stocks.

Semiconductor stocks garnered support after Texas Instruments (TXN 20.95, +1.18) raised its second quarter. Intel (INTC 16.46, +0.54) and Marvell (MRVL 12.75, +1.54) are trading higher in sympathy, and helping the Semiconductor Index climb an enviable 4.0%, which is its second best percentage advance in one month.

Materials stocks (+1.7%) are making headway as commodity prices advance by way of a weaker U.S. dollar. That, along with Morgan Stanley's decision to upgrade shares of AK Steel (AKS 18.88, +1.48) and U.S. Steel (X 37.43, +2.37), has helped steel stocks climb 3.0%.

Financial stocks (+0.6%) have made their way to a fair gain after surrendering an early advance. Still, the sector is looking for direction as diversified banks (+0.1%) lag, yet consumer finance companies (+3.7%) show strength following the Treasury's announcement that 10 of the 19 largest U.S. banks will be allowed to repay TARP funds.

Results from a $35 billion auction of 3-year Treasury Notes are due at any moment. Participants are watching to see if the results will have any implications for longer-term Treasuries, like the benchmark 10-year, which is currently up 4 ticks and yielding 3.86%.DJ30 -5.06 NASDAQ +15.60 SP500 +2.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1536/1.13 bln/1033 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1781/464 mln/1158

12:30 pm : The major indices are making an upward move. Though broad-based, some of the sharpest advances are being made in the financial sector, which is now up 0.5%.

This morning the Treasury announced that 10 of the 19 largest U.S. banks will be allowed to repay TARP funds. Thus far, BB&T Corp. (BBT 22.67, +0.74) confirmed approval to repay TARP, saying it will pay roughly $3.1 billion to the Treasury, plus accrued and unpaid dividends. US Bancorp (USB 18.32, -0.03) confirmed it received approval to redeem $6.6 billion of preferred stock from the Treasury. Capital One (COF 24.24, +0.80) expects to repurchase nearly $3.6 billion in preferred shares, while JP Morgan Chase (JPM 35.58, +0.19) confirmed approval to repay $25 billion in TARP funds. Bank of New York Mellon (BK 28.87, +0.33) said it has raised $2.9 billion toward the repurchase of the $3 billion in TARP capital. American Express (AXP 26.71, +1.06) has permission to repurchase $3.4 billion of preferred shares from the Treasury. Northern Trust (NTRS 56.98, +1.60) received authority to redeem $1.6 billion in preferred shares issued to the Treasury. DJ30 -2.79 NASDAQ +15.63 SP500 +2.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/1.02 bln/1017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1749/419 mln/1176

12:00 pm : Steel stocks (+1.3%) are showing strength as the broader market looks for direction. Part of their move comes as commodity prices advance amid a weaker dollar, which is now down 1.0% by measure of the Dollar Index.

Among steel stocks, AK Steel (AKS 18.64, +1.24) and U.S. Steel (X 36.87, +1.81) are showing some of the strongest gains. Their shares were upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley. Nucor (NUE 46.69, -0.07) is trading with an incremental loss, though; its shares were actually downgraded by Morgan Stanley.DJ30 -31.29 NASDAQ +8.46 SP500 -1.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1414/905 mln/1099 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1519/372 mln/1376

11:30 am : Action remains mixed among the major indices. Small- and mid-cap stocks are also having a quiet session, though they are trading with respectable gains; the S&P 400 is up 0.4%, while the Russell 2000 is up 0.3%.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that he doesn't anticipate needing to ask Congress for more TARP funds, according to Reuters. The comment came after the Treasury told 10 of the nation's largest banks that they could repay TARP funds. DJ30 -29.40 NASDAQ +8.42 SP500 -1.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1412/795 mln/1062 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1459/330 mln/1391

11:00 am : There isn't much leadership to help direct trading this session. In turn, action has become choppy, leaving the major indices to trade with mixed results.

The only sectors trading in positive territory are technology (+0.3%), energy (+0.2%), and materials (+0.6%). Consumer discretionary stocks are fractionally below the unchanged mark as shares of retailers trade 0.2% higher.

This is the second straight session that retailers have logged gains. Runs by the group during recent months have taken their shares up more than 20% this year.DJ30 -34.46 NASDAQ +6.36 SP500 -2.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1393/663 mln/1021 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/281 mln/1407

10:30 am : The Dollar Index has dropped 0.9%, helping drive a 1.0% increase in the CRB Commodity Index.

As for individual commodities, crude oil prices are up an impressive 1.7% to $69.25 per barrel, which means oil prices are now up more than 55% year-to-date.

Natural gas prices are under pressure, however. Futures contract prices were recently quoted 1.9% lower at $3.66 each.

Precious metals are garnering interest. Gold prices are extending their year-to-date advance above 8% by climbing 0.4% to $955.20 per ounce. Silver is up 1.1% to $15.12 per ounce.DJ30 -15.26 NASDAQ +7.39 SP500 +0.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/498 mln/994 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/220 mln/1318

10:00 am : According to Reuters, the Treasury has approved $68 billion in TARP repayments from 10 of the 19 largest U.S. banks. The announcement hasn't created much of a surprise since it was already expected that up to 10 banks would be allowed to repay in excess of $50 billion in TARP funds. In turn, the KBW Banking Index has reversed its recent gains to trade with a 0.4% loss.

Separately, wholesale inventories for April slipped 1.4%, which is a bit steeper than the 1.2% decline that was expected. The previous report was revised lower to reflect a 1.8% decline. Wholesale inventories have declined for eight consecutive months.DJ30 +3.40 NASDAQ +9.75 SP500 +0.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/321 mln/897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/149 mln/1143

09:45 am : The Dow is up modestly, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq sport healthier gains. Semiconductors are showing particular strength following an upwardly revised earnings forecast from Texas Instruments (TXN 21.07, +1.30) -- the Semiconductor Index is currently up 3.5%.

Materials stocks are also showing considerable strength by climbing to a 1.5% gain, which is more than any other major sector within the S&P 500. Part of the sector's move is owed to a rise in commodity prices amid a weaker U.S. dollar.

As such, the CRB Commodity Index is currently up 0.4%, while the greenback is currently down 1.0% against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 +28.72 NASDAQ +15.14 SP500 +5.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/174 mln/681 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/91 mln/852

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. A late squeeze helped stocks pare their losses in the prior session, but with barely 1 billion shares trading hands on the NYSE yesterday it doesn't appear that there was much conviction behind the move. In turn, stocks have been challenged to sustain the move's momentum in this morning's premarket trade. Still, stocks are expected to start the session modestly higher. An upwardly revised outlook from Texas Instruments (TXN) has helped garner support for tech stocks, or semiconductor stocks in particular. The encouraging comments come one week after the chief executive from Applied Materials (AMAT) made a pessimistic assessment of the semiconductor industry. Several bank stocks are also finding support ahead of the opening bell. Their upward move comes ahead of an offical Treasury announcement detailing which companies will be allowed to repay TARP funds. Participants also await the latest results from a $35 billion auction of 3-year Treasury Notes (1:00 PM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. There isn't much in the way of data scheduled for release today, though wholesale inventories for April are due at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus calls for a 1.2% decline in inventories, following the 1.6% downturn that was registered in the previous month. A $35 billion auction of 3-year Treasury Notes is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The auction is expected to be well subscribed, but participants will still be watching closely for any outcome that could have implications for the 10-year Note, which is currently yielding around 3.85%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. The major European indices are trading with modest gains. Germany's DAX is currently up fractionally following news that the country's industrial output fell 1.9% month-on-month in April. Volkswagen is currently a primary leader in the DAX, but Daimler (DAI) is a primary laggard. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.1% following news from Reuters that British house prices fell 0.8% in May from one year ago, marking the slowest annual decline in more than one year. BP PLC (BP) is currently a primary leader in the FTSE, but Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is trading with weakness. In France, the CAC is up 0.2% as financial outfits BNP Paribas and AXA (AXA) show leadership. Societe Generale is lagging, though. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.1%. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank both weighed on trading. CNOOC was also a primary laggard. In Japan, the Nikkei slipped 0.8%. Softbank and Tokyo Electronics were primary leaders, while Honda Motor (HMC) and Trend Micro lagged.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. Reuters has reported that the Treasury will allow 10 banks to pay back TARP funds, while The Wall Street Journal said that nine banks will be allowed to repay the funds. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Treasury expects an initial payback of at least $50 billion in bailout funds from, but not limited to, the likes of American Express (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Capital One Financial (COF), Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). On a related note, Reuters reported that a Congressional Oversight Panel indicated that bank stress tests should be repeated if the U.S. unemployment rate rises beyond levels assumed by regulators in a recent round of examinations. Separately, Texas Instruments (TXN) raised its second quarter outlook to the range $0.14 to $0.22 per share, up from $0.01 to $0.15 per share. The consensus stands at just $0.10 per share. Shares of TXN are up 5% to $20.75 per share in premarket trading, while broader market futures point to a more modest upward start to the session.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

06:18 am : Nikkei...9786.82...-78.80...-0.80%. Hang Seng...18058.49...-194.90...-1.10%.

06:18 am : FTSE...4412.97...+7.80...+0.20%. DAX...4993.52...-11.40...-0.20%.

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