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 Post subject: June 4th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:36 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

1min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1023am est via providing support and trade signals for bullish reversals around 1205pm - 1218pm est.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=208

My Trading Performance: +5.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Restart The Advance
Wall Street ends with gains for the fifth time in six sessions. Employment report, oil, bank and tech shares spur the advance.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 4, 2009: 6:02 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, led by energy, financial and tech shares, as investors welcomed signs of improvement in the labor market ahead of the big monthly jobs report.

Meanwhile, treasury prices slumped, raising the corresponding yields, as investors pulled money out of the safer asset and put it into stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 75 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 10 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 24 points, or 1.3%.

While there are concerns about Friday's jobs report, the energy-and-bank-stock-driven rally of the last few weeks has resumed after Wednesday's slide, said Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management.

"The uptrend remains intact, there's a rotation out of bonds, volatility is down and risk-taking is back in the market," Landgraf said.

Oil prices surged, along with the underlying stocks, after Goldman Sachs boosted its 2009 crude forecast to $85 a barrel and issued a 2010 forecast of $95 per barrel. Bank shares advanced as well, lifting the 24-share KBW Bank (BKX) index by 4.8%.

Friday brings the May jobs report from the Labor Department. Employers are expected to have cut 520,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 539,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.2% from 8.9% in the previous month.

Although the report will be closely watched, the results are not likely to shake investors too much, unless they diverge considerably from forecasts, said Gary Webb, CEO at Webb Financial Group.

"At this point, people know that the unemployment rate is going to keep rising for a while and that the labor market will recover later than the rest of the economy," Webb said.

Stocks rallied in March and April on bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing. But now that expectations have risen, investors are looking for more concrete evidence. That anticipation limited stock gains through most of May. But the major gauges have now closed higher for five of the last six sessions.

Stocks are likely to continue a similarly jerky move upward over the next few months, Webb said.

Mozilo: In other news, the Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday afternoon that it has filed fraud charges against former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo and two others.

The charges likely relate to the timing of Mozilo's sale of shares of the mortgage lender -- and whether he benefited from dumping stock ahead of the company's near implosion and subsequent sale to Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).

Jobs: The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report offered a few encouraging signs in advance of Friday's big jobs report.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment dipped last week to 621,000 from a revised 625,000 in the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast 620,000 new claims.

But continuing claims -- the number of Americans receiving claims for a second week or more -- declined for the first time in 20 weeks.

In other economic news, first-quarter productivity increased 1.6%, revised up from its first reading of 0.8%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast a revised gain of 1.2%.

Retailers: Most May sales reports showed that the U.S. consumer continues to struggle, with improvements in sentiment not yet resulting in renewed buying.

May retail sales fell a sharper-than-expected 4.8%, according to Thomson Reuters, versus a gain of 1.1% a year ago.

Among the standouts, Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) said same-store sales, or sales at stores open more than a year, fell 6% while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) said same-store sales fell 28%. Both stocks tumbled.

No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), which no longer issues monthly sales results and is therefore not included in the index, said it will hire over 22,000 people this year to work at its new or expanded U.S. stores.

Company news: Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) will buy software maker Wind River for $884 million in cash, or $11.50 per share, a premium of more than 40% over Wind River (WIND)'s Wednesday closing price. Intel gained 1.2%, while Wind River rose 47%.

Regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) said it sold $1 billion of common stock and is on track to raise more than the $1.1 billion federal regulators have said it must as a result of the "stress tests." Shares gained 7.3%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by over three to one on volume of 1.36 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by more than two to one on volume of 2.50 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.71% from 3.54% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $2.69 to settle at $68.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $16.70 to settle at $982.30 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The stock market overcame a rocky start to trend higher throughout afternoon trading. Though the close was anticlimactic, stocks were still able to log solid gains and reclaim nearly all of the prior session's losses.

Stocks lacked direction in the early going as participants weighed disappointing monthly sales results from retailers against relatively encouraging jobless claims data. Retailers reported unimpressive comparable store sales for May, which left the group to suffer a 1.2% loss. Retailers had been down as much as 3.0% at their session low.

The disappointing sales results came amid challenging macro conditions and tough comparisons. Pressure on retailers isn't expected to lighten up in the immediate future, especially given current weakness in labor markets.

The number of initial jobless claims are slowing, though. Initial weekly claims for the week ending May 30 totaled 621,000, in-line with the consensus estimate. Continuing jobless claims eased back from record highs by coming in at 6.74 million, which is below what was expected. Investors get a broader look at the unemployment picture with tomorrow's nonfarm jobs report, which is due ahead of the opening bell.

Working through a half-hearted selling effort in the early going, stocks were able to move higher for the rest of the session. Gains were strongest in the financial sector, which closed 4.0% higher as bank stocks rallied.

Energy (+2.0%) and materials stocks (+2.2%) were bid higher as participants moved back into the sectors after they slumped in the prior session. Participants were partly encouraged by a rise in commodity prices, which saw the CRB Commodity Index rebound 2.6% after it slid 2.7% Wednesday.

Crude oil futures showed particular strength after Goldman Sachs forecast oil at $85 per barrel for 2009, according to Reuters. That helped oil prices reach fresh 2009 highs of $69.60 per barrel in afternoon trading. Oil finished at $68.70 per barrel, up 3.7%. DJ30 +74.96 NASDAQ +24.10 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +1.7% SP400 +1.4% SP500 +10.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1921/2.46 bln/743 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2343/1.36 bln/674

3:35 pm : Major equity averages continue to slowly trend toward the upside in a weak, choppy fashion.

The CRB commodity Index traded up 2.5% on the session. Energy commodities and precious metals provided considerable strength to the index, up 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

Specifically, crude oil futures rose throughout the session. The July contracts hit session highs in the afternoon of $69.60 per barrel. The contracts finished at $68.70 per barrel, up 3.7%.

Natural gas futures also finished higher on the session. The July futures contracts sold off in the morning, but were able to recover and traded in positive territory for most of the afternoon to close at $3.80 per contract, up 1.1%.

Gold futures also rose throughout the pit trade. They are up 13% since the lows of April and are at highs not seen since late February. The August contracts closed at $982.30 per ounce, up 1.7%.

After opening the pit session slightly below yesterday's close, silver futures took off. The July contracts steadily traded higher throughout the session and closed up 3.9% at $15.90 per ounce.DJ30 +58.86 NASDAQ +20.26 SP500 +8.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1756/2.00 bln/897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2217/845 mln/797

3:00 pm : Heading into the final hour of trading, stocks are still stuck in a sideways trade. Trading this afternoon has been quiet.

Selling has intensified against Treasuries, however. The benchmark 10-year Note is down 45 ticks, which has pushed its yield back above 3.7%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Bond has shed 72 ticks, which has lifted its yield to almost 4.6%.DJ30 +57.81 NASDAQ +17.74 SP500 +8.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1706/1.82 bln/932 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/758 mln/786

2:30 pm : The pace of news flow has materially slowed this afternoon following this morning's release of same-store sales numbers for the retailers. With a lack of market-moving events, the market have been chopping around in a fairly tight range over the past hour or so. Although still comfortably higher, the major averages have been unable to gain traction, continuing to move in a sideways fashion.

Retailers continue to be one of the weakest sectors today, unable to shake off the disappointing same-store sales. Currently, Gap (GPS 16.89, -1.34) is down about 7% and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 27.89, -3.81) is off by more than 12%. However, financials have been a source of strength to help lead the market higher, including JPMorgan Chase's (JPM 35.24, +1.26) 4% move upward and a 5% gain for Goldman Sachs (GS 149.32, +7.17). DJ30 +68.5 NASDAQ +18.9 SP500 +9.8 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/1.76 bln/874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2230/730 mln/746

2:00 pm : Weakness in big pharma names Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.69, -0.47) and Merck (MRK 26.69, -0.52) is causing the Dow to trail its counterparts by a bit.

Meanwhile, broad-based strength among small-caps is helping the Russell 2000 (+1.5%) outperform the three headline indices. Despite the relative strength of the small-caps, Odyssey Marine (OMEX 2.17, -1.70) is down precipitously after losing a legal battle regarding ownership of some $500 million in gold and silver coins that the treasure-hunting outfit located.DJ30 +60.84 NASDAQ +17.69 SP500 +9.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1740/1.55 bln/838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2209/631 mln/755

1:30 pm : The major indices have made their way to fresh session highs. Along the way, gains have compounded among financial stocks (+3.1%), energy stocks (+2.1%), and materials stocks (+2.0%). Energy and materials were among the worst performers Wednesday.

Health care stocks are lagging, though. The sector is currently trading with a 1.4% loss. Health care stocks actually held up relatively well against selling efforts in the prior session.

Given the rotation between the prior session and today, participants seem to be looking to pick up names of stocks that were handed larger losses Wednesday.DJ30 +50.57 NASDAQ +16.70 SP500 +7.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/1.43 bln/894 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2163/572 mln/798

1:00 pm : Unimpressive retail sales results threatened to undercut a positive bias that stemmed from the prior session's strong close, but encouraging jobless claims data has helped provide support for stocks.

Retailers Macy's (M 12.66, -0.66), Dillard's (DDS 9.70, -0.66), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 27.95, -3.75), American Eagle (AEO 14.80, -0.39), Gap (GPS 16.71, -1.52), and Target (TGT 40.16, -0.81) all reported considerable declines for May same-store sales results, which have weighed on retailers for the entire session, taking the group down 2.3%. Aeropostale (ARO 36.25, -0.36) was one of the few companies to post an increase; the company's sales soared 19.0% in May.

The generally disappointing sales results suggest that consumers are keeping purse strings tight in the face of unfavorable headwinds, including tough labor markets. However, weekly initial jobless claims are slowing as they recently came in at 621,000, in-line with the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims eased back from record highs by coming in at 6.74 million, which is also below what was expected. Market participants will get a broader look at the unemployment picture when the government nonfarm jobs report is released tomorrow morning.

Though job conditions are expected to remain challenging in coming months, the idea that conditions aren't showing signs of worsening has helped stocks trade with gains this session. However, action has been choppy and range bound amid a lack of real leadership.

Though the financial sector is up an impressive 2.6%, the broader market remains uninspired.

Energy stocks are up a healthy 1.7%, helped by a 4.1% rebound in oil prices. Oil is currently trading near fresh 2009 highs of $68.80 per barrel. Crude oil prices are garnering support from a Goldman Sachs forecast that pegged oil prices at $85 per barrel for 2009, according to Reuters.

Oil prices are also being helped along by a pull back in the U.S. dollar. The dollar's decline is also helping win support for other key commodity prices, which is helping drive the CRB Commodity Index up 1.3%. That is lending support to the materials sector, which is up 1.5%.DJ30 +27.71 NASDAQ +9.95 SP500 +4.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1549/1.29 bln/1002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1988/514 mln/935

12:30 pm : Stocks are on the upturn after coming under a sudden flurry of selling pressure, keeping this session's choppy trading theme alive.

Action is generally listless this session. Though financial stocks are up a robust 2.8%, the sector has failed to inspire the broader market to break free from its relatively narrow trading range to move markedly higher.DJ30 +27.55 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +5.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1477/1.21 bln/1046 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1936/476 mln/980

12:00 pm : Stocks have suddenly come under a fit of selling pressure, but advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-2 in the S&P 500, which has helped the benchmark index hold on to a respectable gain.

The stock market is currently up 1.8% week-to-date. Technology stocks and retail stocks have underpinned most of that gain. As for this session alone, tech is up 0.5%, but retailers are down 2.9%.DJ30 +12.97 NASDAQ +8.35 SP500 +4.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/1.08 bln/1023 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1927/422 mln/958

11:30 am : Stocks are holding on to recent gains, but trading has become a bit choppy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is under pressure following its strong run Wednesday, when the dollar index surged more than 1% to log its best percentage gain since January. Currently, the dollar index is down 0.3%.

With the dollar down, the CRB Commodity Index is up a robust 1.1%. The rise in commodity prices is helping the materials sector climb 1.5% and recover from the prior session's 3.5% drop.DJ30 +29.14 NASDAQ +8.29 SP500 +5.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1457/962 mln/1006 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1930/373 mln/920

11:00 am : Strength in the financial sector is leading a rebound in the broader market, which has taken the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to their best levels of the session. The stock market has yet to fully offset its losses from the prior session, though.

However, fnancial stocks are an exception. The sector is now up 2.7%, which means the sector has more than reversed the losses that it incurred Wednesday.DJ30 +44.19 NASDAQ +11.28 SP500 +6.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1496/818 mln/919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1958/305 mln/827

10:30 am : The major stock indices continue to trade in mixed fashion, but commodity prices are snapping back after slumping in the prior session.

Gold is currently up 0.6% to trade at $971.10 per ounce as it works its way back from a 1.9% loss in the prior session. Gold prices were recently up more than 1%. Silver prices are up 1.7% to $15.57 per ounce after suffering a 4.0% loss Wednesday.

Crude oil prices are garnering support after analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast oil prices of $85 per barrel for 2009, which represents a near 30% premium over the prior session's closing price. Oil prices are currently up 2.5% to $67.80 per barrel.

Natural gas suffered some of the worst declines in commodities trading Wednesday by slumping 9.0%. Natural gas prices are currently down another 4.1% to $3.61 per contract, following a build in weekly inventories.

The Baltic Dry Index finished lower for the first time in 24 sessions by shedding 4.6%. The Capesize Index gave back 7.2%, while the Panamax Index shed 2.1%. Losses in the Supramax Index (-0.3%) and the Handysize Index (-0.1%) were modest.DJ30 +11.06 NASDAQ +5.45 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/622 mln/1113 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1593/218 mln/1124

10:00 am : Following a strong start, stocks have come under a bit of selling pressure, leaving the major indices to trade in mixed fashion.

Selling pressure is most visible among shares of retailers. As a group, retailers are down 2.2%, which is their sharpest single-session percentage decline in more than one week.

Gains remain solid among financials, though. The sector is up 1.0%, still more than any other major sector in the S&P 500. The financial sector's strength is underpinned by bank stocks and financial services stocks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM 34.51, +0.53), Wells Fargo (WFC 24.35, +0.22), and Bank of America (BAC 11.32, +0.11).DJ30 -8.45 NASDAQ +7.83 SP500 +0.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1266/407 mln/969 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1511/137 mln/1133

09:45 am : Stocks are making solid gains in the first few minutes of trading. The upward move is being led by strength in energy stocks and financial stocks.

Energy stocks actually helped lead losses in the prior session, dropping 3.3% as crude oil prices shed 3.6%. However, energy stocks are currently up 0.8% as oil prices rebound 2.5% to trade at $67.80 per barrel. Oil received a bullish bid from Goldman Sachs analysts, who forecast that oil prices will reach $85 per barrel this year, according to Reuters.

After a quiet session yesterday, financial stocks are sporting the best gains of any sector in today's action. Financial stocks are currently up 1.2% as regional banks (+2.4%) and investment banks and brokerages (+2.4%) find favor.

In contrast, Treasuries are under pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note is down a sharp 27 ticks, which has pushed its yield up to 3.65%DJ30 +11.70 NASDAQ +10.87 SP500 +3.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1326/255 mln/811 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1661/91 mln/915

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Stock futures have improved from earlier levels to suggest a modestly higher start for the major indices. The improved tone comes after the latest batch of weekly jobless claims data, which saw initial claims move lower for the fourth straight week, as expected, while continuing claims surprisingly eased back. Still, labor markets are expected to remain weak for some time, which casts a shadow on expectations for discretionary spending. As such, retailers have been reporting unimpressive May same-store sales figures, which is hampering shares of retailers in premarket trading. Stocks overseas are a bit mixed as the major Asian indices closed with losses, but European bourses work their way higher. The European Central Bank and Bank of England both left their benchmark interest rates unchanged at a respective 1.0% and 0.5%, as expected.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. In Europe, the European Central Bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected. Bank of England also left its benchmark interest unchanged, though it stands at 0.5%. In other economic news, The Wall Street Journal reported that house prices in the United Kingdom climbed 2.6% from April to May, marking their strongest monthly climb in more than six years. Economists had been expecting a monthly decline of 0.6%. Stocks are currently a bit mixed in overseas trading. England's FTSE is currently down 0.1% as as metals and mining stocks come under pressure following reports that Chinalco (ACH) is set to walk away from a $19.5 billion deal with Rio Tinto (RTP). Shares of RTP, BHP Billiton (BHP), Anglo American (AAUK), and Xstrata (XTA) are all leading losses. France's CAC is currently up 0.6%, thanks to leadership from Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). However, metals giant ArcelorMittal (MT) is undercutting gains. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.5%. Automakers Volkswagen and Daimler (DAI) are among the German bourse's primary leaders. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 1.6%, while Japan's Nikkei shed 0.8% to end a six-session streak of gains. Most of the selling effort was rooted in profit taking. Declines were limited by Mitsubishi Motors, which soared amid news the automaker will release plug-in electric cars by 2013. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng eased back 0.4%. Property and energy stocks were among the biggest decliners as PetroChina (PTR) lagged. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.4% lower after surging to a 10-month high in the prior session.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. Coming in at 621,000, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 were in-line with the consensus estimate of 620,000. Claims for the prior week were revised modestly higher to 625,000. With initial claims down for the fourth straight week the pace of layoffs is slowing. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims eased back from record highs by coming in at 6.74 million, which is below the 6.86 million claims that were expected. Separately, finalized first quarter nonfarm productivity data was revised upward to show a 1.6% increase following the 0.8% increase that had been previously reported. Economists expected the data to show a 1.2% increase. As for first quarter unit labor costs, the finalized data show a 3.0% increase, which is down from the initial 3.3% increase, but slightly above the 2.9% increase that economists had come to expect. Stock futures for the major indices have imporoved a bit from earlier levels.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Retailers have been reporting same-store sales results for May. Costco (COST) and Limited (LTD) both reported a 7.0% decline, while Hot Topic (HOTT) saw sales slip 6% and American Apparel (APP) posted a 10% drop. Plenty of other retailers have yet to report, but thus far the results have generally been unimpressive. That isn't completely surprising, though, given there aren't any stimulus checks filling mailboxes this year and unemployment has clicked higher. The latest weekly jobless claims data are due at the bottom of the hour, as are first quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor cost data. Stocks are currently looking at a flat start for the session.

06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30.

06:17 am : Nikkei...9668.96...-72.70...-0.80%. Hang Seng...18502.77...-73.70...-0.40%.

06:17 am : FTSE...4410.09...+26.70...+0.60%. DAX...5110.26...+55.70...+1.10%.

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