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 Post subject: June 3rd Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:10 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0954am est via providing resistance and trade signals for the failed counter-thrust around 1144am est.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=207

My Trading Performance: +23.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Slump After 4-session Run
Markets retreat as investors assess a mix of economic news and Bernanke comments.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 3, 2009: 5:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Wednesday, as a four-session advance lost steam, after mixed readings on the economy and ahead of retail sales and labor market reports due later this week.

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the corresponding yields, while the dollar gained versus other major currencies. Oil and gold prices tumbled.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 66 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 13 points, or 1.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) dipped 11 points, or 0.6%.

Reports on the job market, factory orders and the services sector of the economy were in focus, along with congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Some of the economic reports were short of estimates and Bernanke's comments may have been seen as a little more cautionary than would have been expected, said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

In addition, "the market has risen in 10 of the last 12 weeks and investors may be starting to run out of gas," he said.

However, Sheldon said that a bit of a pullback is unsurprising, considering that the market, as represented by the S&P 500, has risen around 40% since the March lows.

"Given the amount we've covered in a short amount of time, it's reasonable to see some declines," he said. "The key going forward is that we continue to get improving economic news."

Looking out, the trend for stocks is likely to remain positive for the next few months, if only because of the enormous amount of money the government is pouring into the system, said Will Hepburn, chief investment officer at Hepburn Capital Management.

"The government is flooding the system with cash and until it is used for hiring or building, it is going to go into the financial markets," Hepburn said.

Thursday brings May sales from the nation's chain stores, the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department and the revised reading on first-quarter productivity and unit labor costs.

Movers: Stock declines Wednesday were broad based, with 24 of 30 Dow issues falling, led by oil companies Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

Oil prices fell along with the price of oil, which tumbled after the government's weekly inventory report showed a larger-than-expected build up in inventories.

Fellow oil services firm Valero Energy (VLO, Fortune 500) tumbled 18% after warning that it would report a quarterly loss rather than a quarterly profit analysts expected. The company also said it will make an additional 40 million shares available.

A variety of bank shares fell, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index lost 1.5%.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners seven to three on volume of 1.33 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 2.35 billion shares.

Labor market: A pair of reports released Wednesday morning showed the pace of job losses could be slowing.

Private-sector employers cut 532,000 jobs in May after paring 545,000 in April, according to payroll-services firm ADP. Expectations were for 525,000 cuts, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists.

A separate report showed the number of job cuts announced in May fell for the fourth month in a row. According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., job cut announcements by U.S. employers were 111,182 in the month, down from 132,590 in April. The figure was the lowest total since last September, but still up from a year earlier.

The reports set the tone for the broader May non-farm payrolls report due out Friday.

Economy: In other news, the Institute for Supply Management's index on the services sector of the economy improved to 44 from 43.7 in April. However, that was short of forecasts for an improvement to 45.

Factory orders rose 0.7% in April after falling 1.9% in March. Economists thought orders would climb 0.9%.

Bernanke: The Federal Reserve Chairman told the House Budget Committee that while data show the pace of the recession is slowing, the economy still has a lot of work ahead of it.

In particular, Bernanke talked about the impact of the still-weak labor market and decline in household wealth.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.54% from 3.61% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended higher and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $2.43 to settle at $66.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery slipped $18.70 to settle at $964.50 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Poised to take profits after watching stocks climb higher in each of the four previous sessions, participants drove broad-based losses. However, the major indices were able to limit their decline by attracting enough support to make a strong finish.

Commodities were unable to overcome considerable losses as the U.S. dollar recovered from a four session losing streak. The Dollar Index made its best percentage gain since January by climbing 1.3%, but that gave the CRB Commodity Index a 2.8% loss, which is its sharpest decline in one month. Gold, silver, natural gas, and crude oil prices all moved lower.

The sharp drop in commodity prices weighed heavily on materials and energy stocks, which led losses among stocks for nearly the entire session. Weakness in the energy sector was exacerbated by Valero Energy's (VLO 18.40, -3.98) disappointing forecast, which caused oil and gas refiners to dive 15.1% -- their worst single-session showing since October.

Losses among equities were broad-based for nearly the entire session, though health care showed resilience as biotech stocks (+2.7%) found favor. Still, a lowered earnings outlook from Aetna (AET 26.00, -1.27) weighed on managed care providers (-1.9%) and undercut the broader sector (-0.4%).

Economic data came without any significant surprises, so participants were neither dissuaded from selling nor compelled to intensify their push against stocks. The ISM Services Index for May came in at 44.0, and was essentially in-line with expectations, while factory orders for April increased 0.7%, a bit below the 0.9% increase that was widely forecast.

A precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, the ADP Employment Report showed 532,000 job losses for May. That was generally in step with the consensus forecast.

Though the pace of layoffs has slowed, job conditions remain difficult, which is expected to continue challenging consumer spending in coming months. With unemployment up and no fiscal stimulus checks in the mail, retailers are expected to face difficult same-store sales comparisons in coming months -- several retailers are scheduled to report May sales results Thursday. Shares of retailers slipped 0.9% this session.

Still, many hope that consumer spending will pick up with an economic rebound in the back half of this year. Accordingly, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated during his testimony before the House Budget Committee that overall economic activity is expected to turn up later this year.DJ30 -65.63 NASDAQ -10.88 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -0.7% SP400 -2.3% SP500 -12.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1039/2.30 bln/1614 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 839/1.33 bln/2178

3:30 pm : Commodities logged considerable losses as the U.S. dollar recovered from a four session losing streak. With the Dollar Index up 1.4%, its best move by percent in months, the CRB Commodity Index dropped 2.8%, which is its sharpest decline in one month.

Gold prices endured some of the least severe declines, but still shed 1.9% to settle pit trading at $965.60 per ounce. Silver prices suffered a 4.0% loss to finish at $15.31 per ounce.

In energy trading, natural gas prices plummeted 9.0% to settle at $3.76 per contract. Crude oil prices slumped 3.6% to close pit trading at $66.05 per barrel. Oil prices were also pressured by data that showed a surprise build in weekly inventories.DJ30 -129.74 NASDAQ -24.56 SP500 -19.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 817/1.86 bln/1838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 685/903 mln/2325

3:00 pm : Retailers are expected to unload a deluge of May same-store sales results Thursday. Estimates and previews can be viewed on Briefing.com's Same-Store Sales Calendar.

Ahead of the announcements, analysts expect upside potential to be limited by difficult year-over-year comparisons, given last year's stimulus checks. Going forward, June and July should also be challenging since prices and traffic will likely remain low ahead of the back-to-school shopping season.

Shares of retailers are down 1.6% this session, but thanks to strength in previous weeks the group is up more than 20% year-to-date.DJ30 -112.78 NASDAQ -20.53 SP500 -16.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 861/1.72 bln/1791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 719/828 mln/2280

2:30 pm : The major indices trade modestly above session lows.

Reuters reports, citing a source familiar with the Treasury's thinking, that the Obama administration is planning to release a proposal on financial regulatory reform on June 17.DJ30 -129.03 NASDAQ -25.62 SP500 -19.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 801/1.57 bln/1847 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 643/746 mln/2336

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has gradually drifted to a loss of more than 2%, but it has found some support upon coming in close contact with this week's lows, which were set in the opening minutes of trading on Monday.DJ30 -125.92 NASDAQ -26.36 SP500 -19.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 773/1.48 bln/1857 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/700 mln/2331

1:30 pm : Losses have mounted so that all three of the major indices are now at their worst levels of the session.

The drop in equity prices has helped fuel interest in Treasuries. That has the 10-year Note up 19 ticks, and reduced its yield to 3.54%.

The U.S. dollar is also garnering support. The dollar index is currently up 1.3%, which marks its best single-session advance by percent since a 1.8% surge in January.DJ30 -123.85 NASDAQ -25.76 SP500 -18.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 748/1.34 bln/1856 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 616/635 mln/2327

1:05 pm : Participants have been pushing stocks lower for the entire session. The decision to sell follows four consecutive sessions of gains, which lifted the S&P 500 roughly 6%.

Materials stocks (-4.3%) and energy stocks (-4.1%) are seeing the most selling. The drop in materials stocks comes as commodity prices grapple with a rebounding U.S. dollar, which is currently up nearly 1.4% in the dollar index's best percentage move in months.

Combining the dollar's rebound with an unexpected increase in weekly oil inventories has made for weaker oil prices, which are down 4.4% to $65.55 per barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices has made integrated energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.86, -1.06) a primary laggard in the broader market. However, Valero Energy (VLO 18.29, -4.09) is seeing some of the worst losses after issuing downside guidance.

Managed care provider Aetna (AET 25.77, -1.50) also issued downside guidance when it trimmed its 2009 earnings outlook. That has weighed on managed care providers (-2.8%), but biotech stocks (+2.9%) are helping to limit losses in the broader health care sector (-0.6%).

Today's economic data was generally mixed. The ADP Employment Report said job losses during May totaled 532,000, which is close to what was expected and down from the previous month.

The ISM Services Index for May came in at 44.0, which was largely in-line with the consensus forecast, and up slightly from the previous reading.

Meanwhile, factory orders for April increased 0.7%, which is slightly below the 0.9% increase that was expected, but up from March.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the House Budget Committee this morning and stated that inflation is likely to fall over the next year, and overall economic activity is expected to turn up later this year.DJ30 -110.15 NASDAQ -23.16 SP500 -17.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 756/1.25 bln/1843 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 645/593 mln/2283

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has drifted downward to test earlier lows, but the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remain comfortably above their worst levels of the session.

At its current level, the S&P 500 has erased the prior session's gains, and then some. Still, the benchmark index is up a bit more than 1% week-to-date.DJ30 -100.28 NASDAQ -18.60 SP500 -15.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 775/1.12 bln/1784 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 674/537 mln/2240

12:00 pm : Financial stocks had been holding up relatively well against this session's selling effort in the early going, but the sector is now down 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with the broader market.

Regional bank stocks are down just 0.4%, though they had been trading with a gain of more than 1% in the first few minutes of the session. However, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 4.31, +0.16) is making a solid gain after announcing a $300 million common equity offering. That has participants looking past the decision by analysts at Oppenheimer to lower their estimates for HBAN shares.DJ30 -88.57 NASDAQ -14.07 SP500 -13.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/1.01 bln/1766 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 685/490 mln/2216

11:30 am : Large-cap technology stocks and large-cap biotech stocks are helping the Nasdaq 100 hold up relatively well against this session's broad-based selling effort. In turn, the Nasdaq 100 is down a relatively modest 0.4%. Meanwhile, the more diversified Nasdaq Composite is down 0.6%, though that is still less than the losses seen in the Dow or the S&P 500.

In the Nasdaq 100, Apple (AAPL 140.36, +0.87), Microsoft (MSFT 21.62, +0.22), Gilead Sciences (GILD 44.95, +1.86) and Amgen (AMGN 51.92, +1.19) are primary leaders. Coincidentally, they are also providing primary support to the broader S&P 500.DJ30 -73.35 NASDAQ -11.24 SP500 -11.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 804/879 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 736/428 mln/2141

11:00 am : Stocks are paring their losses, but weakness remains widespread as declining issues outnumber advancers by roughly 9-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Energy stocks (-2.8%) remain a primary source of weakness for the S&P 500. Shares of integrated energy players Exxon Mobil (XOM 72.07, -0.85) and Chevron (CVX 68.01, -1.34) are leading losses in the S&P 500. Oilfield services outfit Schlumberger (SLB 57.17, -2.01) is also creating a considerable drag on the broader market this session; however, its share price is still up nearly 40% year-to-date.DJ30 -77.89 NASDAQ -13.50 SP500 -12.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 792/717 mln/1654 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 678/356 mln/2164

10:30 am : Stocks remain in the red. Commodities are also grappling with losses.

Part of the weakness in commodity prices comes as the U.S. dollar climbs against a basket of major foreign currencies; the dollar index is currently up 1.0% after declining in the four previous sessions.

Gold prices are down 0.8% to $975.20 per ounce, while silver prices have shed 0.7% to trade at $15.85 per ounce.

Natural gas prices are down a considerable 4.8% to $3.92 per contract. Crude oil prices are currently down 1.8% to $67.30 per barrel as selling intensifies after the latest inventory data showed a build of 2.87 million barrels. A draw of 1.5 million barrels had been expected.

The CRB Commodity Index is down 0.8%, which marks its second straight decline after it had advanced in each of the preceding six sessions.DJ30 -96.29 NASDAQ -17.46 SP500 -14.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 710/584 mln/1691 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 578/294 mln/2210

10:05 am : The major indices have extended their early losses. Declines are broad-based as all 10 major sectors trade in the red.

The ISM Services Index for May recently came in at 44.0, which is a bit short of the expected reading of 45.0, and is up slightly from the 43.7 that was registered in April.

Much like the ISM Manufacturing Index, the ISM Service Index continues to show a contraction in activity, but the pace of that contraction continues to decelerate as the Index has clicked higher for three straight months.

Meanwhile, factory orders for April increased 0.7%, which is slightly below the 0.9% increase that was expected, but up from the downwardly revised 1.9% drop that was registered in March.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to soon begin his testimony about the U.S. economy before the House Budget Committee. Prepared remarks have just been released, though. According to Dow Jones, Bernanke stated that inflation is likely to fall over the next year, while sizable job losses are expected in the next few months.DJ30 -89.60 NASDAQ -20.00 SP500 -13.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 609/364 mln/1701 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 514/204 mln/2187

09:45 am : After enduring stiff selling pressure in the prior session, bank stocks are rebounding, which is helping to limit losses in the financial sector (-0.4%) as the broader market turns downward. Currently, diversified banks are up 0.9%, while regional banks are up 0.7%. They fell a respective 4.1% and 1.8% Tuesday.

Energy stocks are contending with the most selling pressure this session, though. Energy stocks are already down 2.4% as oil and gas refiners dive 13.0% following downside guidance from Valero Energy (VLO 183.91, -3.47).DJ30 -63.40 NASDAQ -15.92 SP500 -10.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/205 mln/1559 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 496/124 mln/2123

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.50. Stock futures suggest participants are looking to pare their holdings after the stock market climbed for four straight sessions, which resulted in a near 6% gain for the S&P 500. The move to sell comes amid data that suggests job conditions remain weak, though not as weak as earlier in the year. According to the ADP Employment report, job losses in May totaled 532,000, which is only slightly more than expected so the consensus estimate is unlikely to be revised for the government's official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. More economic data is due at 10:00 AM with the release of the May ISM Services Index and April factory orders. Fed Chairman is scheduled to begin a testimony on economic conditions at that same time. Corporate headlines have failed to support a stronger bias this morning. Managed care provider Aetna (AET) lowered its earnings outlook, which now stands below the consensus forecast. Homebuilders Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) both reported quarterly losses that were worse than expected. Their announcement comes a day after shares of homebuilders spiked on better-than-expected pending home sales data.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. After sliding for the past four sessions, the Dollar Index is up 0.8%. The rise in the dollar is putting some pressure on oil prices, which are being quoted lower just moments ahead of pit trading. Crude oil contracts were most recently quoted at $67.80 per barrel, down 1.1%. However, oil prices could see some fluctuation once weekly inventory data is released at 10:30 AM ET.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80. For the second straight session European stocks are consolidating a recent string of gains. In Britain, sellers are focusing their efforts on energy outfits BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A). That has the FTSE trading 2.0% lower. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.8% amid weakness in Deutsche Bank (DB), which was actually upgraded by analysts at Societe Generale. Meanwhile, France's CAC is off by 1.3% as energy giant Total (TOT) slips and metals outfit ArcelorMittal (MT) comes under pressure. Gains were made in Asia, however. Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.4% with help from Fast Retailing. Takeda Pharmaceuticals traded with weakness and undermined the advance, though. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng climbed 1.0% as Hang Seng Bank, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank showed leadership. HSBC (HBC) was a laggard, however.

08:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. According to the ADP Employment Report, 532,000 jobs were lost during May. The consensus called for 525,000 job losses following the 545,000 losses in April. The report isn't considered to be a precise indicator of jobs lost, but it is often able to influence handicap the government's nonfarm payrolls report, which is due Friday morning. Stock futures have made a modest pull back on the news.

08:10 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. Stock futures are down a bit in premarket trading. Health benefits providers are down markedly, though, after Aetna (AET) lowered its earnings guidance for fiscal 2009 to the range $3.55 to $3.70 per share from the range $3.85 to $3.95 per share. Analysts had been expecting $3.80 per share. Shares of AET were also downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse. Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify about the U.S. economy before the House Budget Committee at 10:00 AM ET. Former Fed Chairman Greenspan is speaking at the American Enterprise Institute at 12:00 PM ET. As for fresh economic data, the ADP Employment Change report for May is due shortly (8:15 AM ET), while the May ISM Services Index and April factory orders data follow (10:00 AM ET).

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00.

06:37 am : Nikkei...9741.67...+37.40...+0.00%. Hang Seng...18576.47...+187.40...+1.00%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4393.16...-84.20...-1.90%. DAX...5109.42...-34.60...-0.70%.

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