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 Post subject: June 2nd Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 6:44 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0940am est via providing support and trade signals for the remainder of the trading day whenever the price action tested that support area.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=206

My Trading Performance: +9.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Boosted By Housing, Autos
Wall Street inches higher as investors eye an increase in pending home sales and a smaller-than-expected decline in auto sales.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 2, 2009: 5:36 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Tuesday, managing an advance at the end of a choppy session after a positive housing report and a series of not-as-bad-as-expected auto sales reports gave investors some optimism.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 19 points or 0.2%. The index briefly turned positive for the year for the first time since Jan. 7.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 2 points or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 8 points, or 0.4%.

Stocks had seesawed on both sides of the unchanged line throughout the session, managing gains just after the release of the housing market report and then again through the close.

The fact that stocks were mostly hanging in after Monday's big move was positive, said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

Pending home sales jumped 6.7% in April, and posted year-over-year increases in every region but the West, according to a National Association of Realtors report released on Tuesday. The report added to hopes that the housing market is starting to find its footing.

The collapse of the housing market set the recession in motion and investors have been looking for signs that it is nearing a recovery.

Stocks in the U.S. and abroad jumped Monday after upbeat reports on manufacturing, construction and consumer spending added to hopes that the pace of the recession is slowing.

Such bets have helped lift the stock market over the past three months, after the Dow and S&P 500 slumped to more than 12-year lows.

"On an almost daily basis, we're seeing signs of a lessening of the recession," Kiddoo said. "It's not the same as a recovery, but it's a sign that we're moving in the right direction."

Wednesday brings a number of closely-watched economic reports. The standout is the May report on private-sector employment from payroll services firm ADP.

Employers are expected to have cut 525,000 jobs after cutting 491,000 jobs in the previous month. The report sets the tone for the broader May non-farm payrolls report due out on Friday.

Other reports on tap for Wednesday include the May manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management and the weekly crude inventories report from the Energy Information Administration.

Financials: Three more banks announced plans to repay the government bailout money.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) said late Monday it plans to raise $5 billion toward the $25 billion it owes the government. American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) also said late Monday that it will raise $500 million toward the $3.4 billion it owes.

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) said Tuesday that it plans to raise $2.2 billion.

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce next week which of the 19 banks that it stress tested are in good enough shape to pay back bailout funds. In order for banks to pay back the government, they must prove that they can raise money without depending on guarantees against losses provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC).

In other financial news, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) will withhold severance payments worth tens of millions of dollars to five former executives, according to a published report.

Citigroup will be kicked out of the Dow, with home, auto and commercial insurer Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) taking its place starting Mon., June 8. The government now owns a large stake in Citi and the company is undergoing a restructuring.

Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) raised over $1.9 billion after selling part of its stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China.

GM: General Motors (GMGMQ) is selling its Hummer truck brand to Chinese industrial company Sichuan Tengzhong. The deal was announced one day after GM filed for bankruptcy protection, bringing an end to an era for the automaker.

The bankruptcy is seen as necessary by lawmakers who say the industry requires a broad overhaul. GM's bankruptcy will result in 20,000 job losses and the closure of 12 plants.

GM is now trading under the symbol GMGMQ, as of Tuesday. It will be removed from the S&P 500 at the close of trading Tuesday and is also being kicked out of the Dow. Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) takes its place in the Dow starting Monday.

Separately, GM said that May auto sales fell 29% from a year ago, versus forecasts for a drop of nearly 37%. The May performance was the automaker's best of the year.

Auto sales: Other companies also reported narrower-than-expected sales drops.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said Tuesday that May auto sales fell 24%, versus forecasts for a drop of 28.5%. The results were the best monthly performance for the company since last July.

Chrysler - which filed for bankruptcy April 30 - said sales dropped 47% from a year ago, versus forecasts for a slide of almost 54%. It was the automaker's best monthly performance of the year.

The exception was Toyota Motor (TM), which slumped 40.7%, roughly in line with forecasts for a slide of 40.6%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.41 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners five to four on volume of 2.42 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.61% from 3.67% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and yen.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell 3 cents to settle at $68.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $4.40 to settle at $984.40 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Choppy, listless trading kept stocks restricted to a relatively narrow range for most of the session, but stocks were still able to close higher for the fourth consecutive session -- a feat that hasn't been accomplished in nearly two months.

Though there weren't any primary leaders this session, gains were still respectable and broad-based. More impressive gains were sporadic.

Ford (F 6.41, +0.28) extended its four-session run up to 20% after announcing that it has achieved its highest market share in three years, while its U.S. auto sales for May fell a less-than-expected 24%. Recently bankrupt General Motors said its May U.S. sales fell almost 30%.

Meanwhile, Honda Motor (HMC 29.66, -0.11) said total American vehicle sales for May dropped 39% since the past year, and Toyota Motor (TM 80.99, -0.73) said May vehicle sales fell nearly 38% year-over-year.

PepsiCo (PEP 55.37, +2.24) logged its best single-session percentage gain this year after analysts at UBS raised their target for PEP shares. UBS also raised its target for shares of Pepsi Bottling (PBG 34.17, +0.96). Pepsi Bottling won additional favor by issuing upside guidance for 2009.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 34.50, -1.61) led financial shares (-1.2%) lower after it announced plans to repay TARP funds by raising $5.0 billion in common equity. Also looking to get out from the yoke of government oversight and remove the stigma of holding TARP funds, American Express (AXP 24.71, -1.28) announced a $500 million common stock offering, while Morgan Stanley (MS 30.09, +0.20) announced it is looking to raise $2.2 billion.

Though the share offerings are aimed at raising capital to repay TARP funds, the announcements mark an extension of the stock offerings that financial companies have made in recent weeks. With financials up more than 100% since their March low, companies have been able to raise more funds with fewer shares, thus limiting the dilutive impact of recent offerings.

Banks have been among those to issue the most offerings as they attempted to quell capitalization concerns. To that point, Moody's stated that it expects U.S. rated banks will incur some $470 billion pretax loan losses and write-downs in 2009 and 2010, and also expects many banks will be unprofitable this year. Moody's is keeping a negative outlook on the banking industry rating and the industry's credit outlook. Shares of diversified banks dropped 4.1%.

Semiconductor stocks (-3.3%) showed weakness for the entire session. Their downturn came after Applied Materials (AMAT 11.61, -0.44) chief executive Mike Splinter stated that there will be more failures in the semiconductor equipment sector amid declining customers, according to Reuters.

Stocks started the session in the red, but were able to finish with a rather modest gain, which was near the middle of the session's trading range. Highs were hit early on following a surprise 6.7% monthly increase in April pending home sales, which is one of the best monthly increases on record and the third straight increase.DJ30 +19.43 NASDAQ +8.12 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +1.0% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +1.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1506/2.41 bln/1146 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/1.41 bln/1239

3:35 pm : The CRB Commodity Index closed modestly lower by 0.3%.

Energy commodities mirrored this minor change to the downside, closing 0.1% lower.

Crude oil traded in the red for most of the session and hit session lows of $67.50 per barrel in the morning. July crude oil prices recovered, though, and traded in positive territory for most of the afternoon before closing at $68.57 per barrel, down just a penny. Crude oil futures are up over 93% since hitting a 2009 low on Jan. 15.

Natural gas futures gave up a portion of yesterday's gains. The natural gas futures contracts traded in the red for almost the entire session and closed down 3.1% at $4.12 per contract, not much above its session lows of $4.07 per contract.

Precious metals fared well in today's session, ending higher by 0.8%.

After trading below yesterday's close in overnight, gold futures contracts opened in positive territory and stayed there for the majority of the session. The August contracts finished at $984.00 per ounce, up less than 1%.

July silver rallied 1.5% to close at $15.97 per ounce. Silver futures are now up over 81% since hitting multi-year lows in October 2008.DJ30 +25.87 NASDAQ +8.63 SP500 +2.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1481/1.97 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1791/1.01 bln/1230

3:00 pm : The major indices are trending upward to their best levels of the afternoon. The path has been choppy, though.

Despite the upward trend, stocks are still well off of their session highs, which actually topped the highs that were registered in the prior session. At their current level, stocks are trading in-line with the prior session's highs and remain above their 200-day moving average.DJ30 +37.18 NASDAQ +10.69 SP500 +3.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1487/1.77 bln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1861/887 mln/1157

2:25 pm : The major indices post modest gains.

Market breadth is positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by 5-to-3 on the NYSE and 4-to-3 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 +32.95 NASDAQ +11.71 SP500 +3.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1471/1.61 bln/1162 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1864/801 mln/1139

2:00 pm : While the headline indices are trading with modest gains, the Russell 2000 is up an impressive 1.1% as small-cap stocks are led by Synthesis Energy (SYMX 1.01, +0.31) and Technitrol (TNL 5.24, +1.25).

Technitrol announced today that it plans to divest its Medtech components business for $200 million, which will be used to pay down debt. DJ30 +18.86 NASDAQ +7.77 SP500 +2.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/1.53 bln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/753 mln/1224

1:35 pm : ExxonMobil (XOM 72.55, +0.79) is providing support to the S&P 500. However, weakness in oil and gas exploration companies (-1.2%) and oil and gas equipment companies (-1.0%) is curtailing the integrated energy giant's influence.

Energy stocks, as a group, have pared their losses to trade just below the unchanged mark. The rebound comes as oil prices reverse losses to trade with a 0.2% gain. Oil is now trading at $68.70 per barrel. DJ30 +18.30 NASDAQ +6.98 SP500 +1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/1.41 bln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1739/691 mln/1236

1:00 pm : Trading remains listless midway through the session as stocks have failed to hold earlier gains.

Stocks started the session in the red, but quickly moved to higher ground with the help of a surprising 6.7% monthly increase in April pending home sales. Not only did that mark the third straight monthly increase, but the pace of pending home sales has accelerated during that time.

Recent increases in pending home sales are being attributed to buyer incentives and record low mortgage interest rates, which have actually been clicking higher in recent weeks as Treasury yields climb.

Treasuries have been oscillating a bit this session, but the benchmark 10-year Note is currently up four ticks, which has pulled its yield off of the 3.7% level. Still, the spread between the yields of the 2-year Note and the 10-year Note remain near record highs.

Financial stocks have been under pressure for the entire session, which has helped to undercut earlier gains. The financial sector is off of its session lows, but remains down 1.4%.

Diversified banks (-4.3%) and consumer finance companies (-5.1%) are among the weakest performers in the sector, following word that JPMorgan Chase (JPM 34.84, -1.27) and American Express (AXP 24.60, -1.39) announced common stock offerings with the aim of helping the companies repay TARP funds. Morgan Stanley (MS 29.19, -0.70) also announced it will make an offering of its own.

Meanwhile, Moody's dealt a blow to bank stocks by stating in its yearly report that both the U.S. banking industry rating outlook and the industry's broader fundamental credit outlook continue to be negative. As a result of substantial asset quality problems and the need to build reserves, Moody's believes that many banks will be unprofitable in 2009.

Semiconductor stocks (-3.4%) have also spent the entire session trading with weakness following pessimistic comments about the industry from the chief executive of Applied Materials (AMAT 11.58, -0.48). DJ30 +4.76 NASDAQ +4.22 SP500 +0.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1345/1.31 bln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1649/633 mln/1308

12:30 pm : Despite a choppy start, shares of Ford Motor (F 6.19, +0.06) are currently trading higher. The stock has garnered additional support following the company's announcement that its U.S. auto sales during May fell roughly 24%, which wasn't as bad as the 29% drop that was expected by Wall Street.

Ford announced that its new products helped the company achieve its highest market share in three years, even as the company decreased incentive spending in May.

With Chrysler and General Motors gone bankrupt and retooling their operations, Ford is increasing North American production in the second quarter by 10,000 vehicles. Ford also announced it plans to increase third quarter vehicle production by 42,000 from the third quarter of 2008.DJ30 -10.13 NASDAQ -2.11 SP500 -1.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1213/1.20 bln/1371 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1479/584 mln/1461

12:00 pm : Shares of soft drink companies are making solid gains and outperforming the broader market. However, PepsiCo (PEP 55.30, +2.17) is putting together a stronger performance than Coca-Cola (KO 49.77, +0.75) as analysts at UBS raise their target for shares of PEP.

Analysts at UBS also raised their target for shares of Pepsi Bottling (PBG 34.21, +1.00) as they expect PepsiCo's takeout offer for PBG to increase. However, just last week New York Post reported that merger talks between Pepsi Bottling and PepsiCo have gone flat.DJ30 +5.00 NASDAQ +3.86 SP500 +0.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1327/1.07 bln/1239 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1588/519 mln/1325

11:30 am : Trading is generally listless as stocks continue chopping along. Still, gains are largely broad-based as eight of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 remain in positive territory; only financials (-1.3%) and utilities (-0.4%) are showing losses.

Treasuries are having a quiet session. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently unchanged, which has its yield at 3.67%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Note is also unchanged, but yielding 0.94%. That has pushed the 2-10 year yield spread to record levels.DJ30 +30.57 NASDAQ +11.07 SP500 +2.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/935 mln/1146 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1694/453 mln/1212

11:00 am : Action is choppy in the early going, which has made it difficult for stocks to hold their recent gains. Earlier, the Dow actually made its way into positive territory for the year, but has since pulled back. The pullback has the Dow trading with a 0.4% year-to-date loss.

Financials are lagging the broader market for the second straight session. The financial sector is currently down 1.1%, more than any other major sector. DJ30 +26.18 NASDAQ +6.86 SP500 +2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/792 mln/1166 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/385 mln/1208

10:30 am : Several key commodities are seeing price pullbacks following a strong run in the prior session. That has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.3%, though it still has a ways to go before erasing the prior session's 3.1% gain.

Crude oil is currently a primary point of weakness for the CRB. Oil prices are down 0.4% to $68.30 per barrel. Still, oil prices are up more than 50% year-to-date.

Natural gas prices are also contending with some selling pressure. Contracts are currently being priced at $4.18 each, down 1.6%.

Precious metals prices are finding support, though. Gold prices are currently up 0.4% to $982.10 per ounce. Silver prices are up 0.6% to $15.84 per ounce. That is helping the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 96.38, +0.65) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV 15.62, +0.27) outperform the broader equity market, which is currently trading in choppy fashion.

The Baltic Dry Index made its largest point move in the past 21 sessions by rallying 425 points, or 11.5%. The BDI is up approximately 40% week-over-week. Underpinning the ascent was a near 18% gain in the Capesize Index, which is now up more than 60% week-over-week. The Panamax Index gained 7.7%, while the Supramax Index ended had a relatively unimpressive 0.4% gain. The Handysize Index tacked on 0.7%.DJ30 +43.39 NASDAQ +10.53 SP500 +4.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1354/606 mln/1045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1658/296 mln/1141

10:00 am : Stocks recently made their way into positive territory, but are now spiking markedly higher following news that pending home sales for April were far better than expected.

According to the latest data, April pending home sales spiked 6.7% month-over-month, which is up from the 3.2% monthly increase seen in March, and above the 0.5% increase that was expected.

Though it is still early in the session, the recent gains help support the prospect of finishing higher for the fourth straight session. Stocks have not finished higher in four consecutive sessions since early April.

Early movers: Trading up -- HLND +28.9%, JVA +20.5%, DDUP +17.7%, CVLT +10.2%, MDZ +7.9%, UNFI +7.9%, GPRE +7.5%; Trading down -- BCS -11.6%, DAKT -11%, MTZ -9.7%, HGG -9.5%, DCT -8.1%, IRET -7.7%DJ30 +60.43 NASDAQ +4.85 SP500 +4.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/376 mln/1046 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1634/198 mln/1086

09:45 am : The major indices started the session in the red, but are now working to pare their initial losses.

Weakness remains considerable among semiconductors (-1.5%) and semiconductor equipment stocks (-3.3%). The groups have come under pressure following pessimistic comments from Applied Materials (AMAT 11.62, -0.45). According to Reuters, the company's chief executive stated that there will be more failures in the semiconductor equipment sector as the number of customers declines. According to the report, acquisitions in the chip gear sector are also very difficult to conduct, leaving very few avenues for consolidation.DJ30 +5.56 NASDAQ -3.31 SP500 -1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/185 mln/1384 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1132/121 mln/1514

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Stock futures had been pointing to a solid start for the major indices, but now it looks like a moderately weaker start may be in order. The reversal comes as bank stocks come under a bit of pressure following news that a couple of firms announced plans to repay TARP funds by tapping equity markets. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is pricing a $5 billion common stock offering at a discount in excess of 2% relative to the prior session's closing price. The offering comes as an extension of the capital-raising efforts that banks have made amid rising share prices during recent weeks. In fact, JPMorgan's offer price stands above the stock's 200-day moving average and 50-day moving average. Morgan Stanley (MS) and American Express (AXP) have also announced new offerings. Morgan Stanley's offering price also stands above its 200-day moving average and 50-day moving average. American Express has yet to price its offering. Separately, oil prices are pulling back in early pit trading. Crude oil is currently being priced 0.8% lower at $68.00 per barrel after reaching fresh 2009 highs in the prior session. Crude's downturn comes despite continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, which is down for its fourth straight day, according to the dollar index.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure this morning; the dollar index is currently down 0.4%, which brings its decline for the past four days to 2.4%. The decline comes even as Treasury Secretary Geithner commented this morning in a CNBC interview that Chinese officials remain supportive of the U.S. dollar and that there is no risk in monetizing debt in the U.S. Geithner went on to say that TARP funds should be allowed to be repayed quickly.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stocks in Europe are ranging from flat to lower as Germany's DAX trades just above the unchanged mark and France's CAC and Britain's FTSE fall a respective 0.1% and 0.8%. In the DAX, Volkswagen is a primary leader. Siemens (SI) is also trading with strength as it extends its gains from the prior session. In the CAC, financial services companies AXA (AXA) and BNP Paribas are providing support, but weakness in Total (TOT), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), and ArcelorMittal (MT) are weighing down the index. Meanwhile, the FTSE is being dragged lower by weakness in Barclays (BCS), which has come under pressure following reports that an Abu Dhabi investor sold a substantial chunk of the bank. In European economic news, the AFP reported that unemployment in the 16-nation eurozone reached 9.2% in April, marking a decade high. For the whole 27-nation European Union, unemployment clicked up to 8.6% in April. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.6%. Losses were broad, but HSBC (HBC) was a primary laggard. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was also instrumental in driving losses. In Japan, the Nikkei was able to advance 0.3%. It was helped along by gains in Fast Retailing, Honda Motor (HMC), and Sony (SNE), even as the U.S. dollar continued its decline.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) indicated this morning during a conference call that a capital raise will get the company into a position to repay TARP in the first wave, and still maintain a Tier 1 ratio above 9%. The bank also indicated it could handle a worst case stress test scenario. Shares of JPM are up fractionally in premarket trading. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS) has announced a $2.2 billion common equity offering to satisfy a supervisory condition that will enable it to redeem TARP preferred capital. However, approval for repayment has not yet been granted. Shares of MS are down 2.5% to $29.15 per share ahead of the opening bell. SunTrust Banks (STI) has priced a 108 million common share offering at $13.00 per share, which is a moderate discount to the prior session's closing price of $13.80 per share. In turn, shares of STI are moving lower in premarket trading. Broader market stock futures point to a modestly higher start, though.

06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00.

06:17 am : Nikkei...9704.31...+26.60...+0.30%. Hang Seng...18389...-499.50...-2.60%.

06:17 am : FTSE...4474.02...-32.20...-0.70%. DAX...5153.24...+10.70...+0.20%.

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