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 Post subject: June 1st Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:03 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 0944am est as a trade signal from both the APAOR and VTR strategies.

With that said, I spent most of the trading day at personal appointments for myself and family. Simply, only 3 trades today and I missed the best part of the trading day.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=205

My Trading Performance: +5.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Start June With A Bang
Wall Street rallies on upbeat economic news. Unfazed by GM's bankruptcy, the Dow nearly erases 2009 losses.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 1, 2009: 5:49 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average near the breakeven point for the year, as better-than-expected readings on manufacturing activity raised hopes that a global economic recovery is brewing.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) surged 221 points, or 2.6%, to close at 8,721.44 points. The bluechip average is within 55 points of breaking even for the year.

The broader S&P 500 (SPX) rose 24 points, or 2.6%, to about 943 points - its highest level of the year. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) jumped 54 points, or 3%.

The rally was broad based, with industrial and technology stocks leading the pack. Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) rose 6.5% and United Technologies Corp. (UTC) gained 5.3%. Shares of energy producers Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) rose as oil topped $68 a barrel.

As stocks advanced, demand for safe-haven assets evaporated. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 3.7% as its price fell sharply.

Stocks opened higher as investors looked past an official declaration of bankruptcy by General Motors, which had been widely expected. The rally gained steam after an industry report showed U.S. manufacturing activity shrank at a slower pace last month.

"Today's data were better than expected, both here and abroad," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors. The recession has "reached its nadir" and the improved economic outlook has helped "draw some cash off the sidelines," he said.

Wall Street rallied Friday, with the major indexes ending May in positive territory. That marked the third consecutive month that stocks have risen, though May's gains were smaller than those posted in the previous two months.

Looking ahead, automakers report monthly sales figures Tuesday. And investors are already bracing for the government's closely-watched jobs report due Friday.

Economy: The manufacturing sector contracted in May, but the pace of deterioration was slower than expected, according to an industry report.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 42.8 from 40.1 in April. Economists had expected the index to increase to 42, according to a survey by Briefing.com.

A reading below 50 in the index indicates the manufacturing sector is contracting. But May's gain puts the index over the tipping point that suggests expansion in the overall economy. A reading above 41.2%, over a period of time, is generally consistent with growth in gross domestic product.

Meanwhile, two separate reports showed manufacturing activity in China expanded last month. A measure of India's manufacturing sector rose to its highest level in eight months.

European manufacturing activity shrank at a slower pace in May, with a euro zone purchasing managers index marking its biggest monthly jump on record.

In the United States, construction spending unexpectedly rose 0.8% in April, its biggest increase in eight months, the Commerce Department reported. Analysts had forecast spending to fall 0.8%.

Separately, personal income rose 0.5% in April, the biggest increase in 11 months, the government reported Monday. But consumer spending dropped 0.1%.

Dow changes: Two Dow components, General Motors and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), will be officially removed from the average June 8, Dow Jones announced Monday. Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500) will take the place of Citi; Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) will fill GM's slot on the Dow.

"I think getting some of the dogs out of the Dow is helping [to] feed the psychology," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global. But Monday's manufacturing reports were the main driver of the rally, he added.

Autos: GM (GM, Fortune 500) filed for bankruptcy protection Monday in a move aimed at helping the once-mighty automaker emerge with only its more profitable plants, brands, dealerships and contracts.

GM's stock rose 18% earlier in the session. Analysts said the rally was related to short selling, a strategy that allows investors to sell stock they don't yet own and then buy it later when the price falls. On Monday investors were buying back shares to cover their short positions, driving up the price. Shares closed 8% higher.

GMstock will begin trading on the "Pink Sheets" on Tuesday morning, said Cromwell Coulson, CEO of Pink OTC Markets Inc. Pink sheets allow for trading in certain stocks that are not listed on an exchange or the Nasdaq.

GM's bankruptcy filing occurred just hours after a U.S. Bankruptcy Court judge in New York approvedChrysler's sale of most of its assets to Italian carmaker Fiat.

Bonds:Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising to 3.71% from 3.46% Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: Asian stocks soared, with Japan's Nikkei adding 1.6%. European markets rallied, with shares gaining between 2% and 4%.

In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and the British pound. It rose against the Japanese yen.

NYMEX oil for July delivery rose by $2.27 a barrel to settle at $68.58.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell 30 cents to close at $980 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Thanks to a concerted, broad-based buying effort amid pleasing economic data, the S&P 500 climbed to fresh highs for 2009 and managed to close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2007.

There wasn't any individual catalyst for the upward push, just pleasing economic data in the U.S. and abroad.

Personal spending for April declined a moderate 0.1%, which was better than expected and an improvement from the previous month, while personal income for April showed a surprise 0.5% increase in the face of loose labor conditions.

Construction spending for April also registered an unexpected increase by climbing 0.8% month-over-month.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for May came in at 42.8, which was largely in-line with expectations, but up from the prior month. Though the reading indicates manufacturing activity continues to contract, the pace of contraction is decelerating.

Meanwhile, upbeat PMI data in both China and Europe supported foreign indices, and even looped back to the U.S. to help extend the surge that U.S. stocks saw in the final hour of trading last week.

Given the impressive gains in the U.S. and abroad, the Dow Jones World Index climbed 2.6% Monday.

Retailers in the S&P 500 saw some of the best gains. They spiked 6.1%, which helped the consumer discretionary sector climb 4.6%. The sector was also helped by a 6.4% advance by automakers, even as General Motors (GM 0.75, +0.00) confirmed all previous suspicion by announcing that it will enter bankruptcy with the help of the U.S. government, which is investing $30 billion for a 60% stake in the company.

As a result of the filing, GM will lose its long-held position in the Dow. Cisco (CSCO 19.50, +1.00) will replace GM in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective June 8. In addition, Dow Jones announced that it will remove Citigroup (C 3.69, -0.03) from the average effective June 8, replacing it with Travelers (TRV 41.91, +1.25). Dow Jones said the large and ongoing government stake in Citigroup prompted the change.

Strength in blue-chips helped the Dow cut into its year-to-date loss, which now stands at less than 1%.

Industrial stocks climbed 4.7%, more than any other major sector. Tech tacked on 3.3%, helping the Nasdaq Composite outperform the other headline indices and close above its 200-day moving average for the fifth consecutive session.

The broad-based buying effort helped nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 finish higher. Telecom (-0.4%) was the only sector to finish lower, but financial stocks (+0.5%) and health care stocks (+0.5%) also lagged the broader market.

Commodities also logged an impressive session as the CRB Commodity Index spiked 3.1% to log its best single-session advance by percent in two months. It was helped along by rising crude oil prices, which logged another 2009 closing high by finishing pit trading 3.2% higher at $68.40 per barrel.

Treasuries were knocked around again. The benchmark 10-year Note shed 58 ticks, which pushed its yield up to 3.68%. The 10-year Note had been down more than two full points during the session.DJ30 +221.11 NASDAQ +54.35 NQ100 +2.9% R2K +3.9% SP400 +3.7% SP500 +23.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2042/2.60 bln/647 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2507/1.50 bln/568

3:30 pm : Stocks continue to ease off their session highs. Nonetheless, they remain on track to log some impressive gains.

Commodoties have already wrapped up an impressive session, which helped the CRB Commodity Index spike 3.1% to log its best single-session advance by percent in two months.

Underpinning the CRB's ascent was a surge in natural gas prices, which closed pit trading at $4.24 per contract, just off of its session high. Still, that reflects a 10.5% surge in contract prices.

Crude oil prices also bounded. Oil logged another 2009 closing high by finishing pit trading at $68.40 per barrel, which translates into a 3.2% advance for the session. A late buying effort helped bolster oil prices.

Given the enviable gains seen among energy prices, precious metals had a relatively quiet session. Gold closed fractionally lower at $980.00 per ounce after spending most of the session with modest gains. Meanwhile, silver settled in at $15.74 per ounce, up 0.8%. DJ30 +246.04 NASDAQ +54.10 SP500 +25.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1997/2.18 bln/688 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2518/1.05 bln/542

3:00 pm : The stock market has slowly drifted lower since reaching a session high around 2:00 PM ET. Still, gains remain broad-based as advancing issues outnumber decliners by 10-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Within the S&P 500, Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.71, +2.36) is currently providing the most leadership. Shares of XOM are currently at their best levels since February.DJ30 +234.49 NASDAQ +53.56 SP500 +25.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1994/1.94 bln/683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2523/931 mln/540

2:30 pm : The upward momentum that took stocks markedly higher in the first hour of trading has tapered off. However, stocks have still managed to make a gradual ascent in afternoon trading, which has helped the S&P 500 make its best move by percent in two weeks.

While U.S. stocks have been trading with impressive gains since the opening bell, the U.S. dollar remains under continued pressure. As a result, the dollar index is currently down 0.5%.DJ30 +230.66 NASDAQ +55.50 SP500 +26.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/1.75 bln/657 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2588/841 mln/475

2:00 pm : The major indices are extending their gains and have recently reached fresh session highs. That has the S&P 500 trading at its best level since November.

At its current level, the S&P 500 currently trades at 15.5x trailing earnings. During the last five years the S&P 500 traded at an average monthly price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5x. During the last 10 years the S&P 500 traded at an average monthly price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9x.DJ30 +244.44 NASDAQ +57.53 SP500 +27.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2004/1.61 bln/647 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2591/767 mln/451

1:30 pm : Stocks are still trading with impressive gains following a subtle pull back. Including today, stocks have climbed higher by more than 1% in four of the last five sessions. During the course of that time, the stock market has advanced more than 6%.DJ30 +214.02 NASDAQ +50.89 SP500 +24.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1982/1.49 bln/662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2580/711 mln/452

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 is working to register a fresh high for 2009, while the Nasdaq Composite has spiked to its best levels of the year and the Dow minimizes its year-to-date loss to less than 1%.

Gains are robust and broad-based in what has been a collective buying effort since the opening bell. Even General Motors (GM 0.87, +0.12) is garnering support, despite news that the company is filing for bankruptcy. According to GM CEO Fritz Henderson, GM believes it can complete bankruptcy in 60 to 90 days. On a related note, The Wall Street Journal reported that fellow automaker Chrysler could exit bankruptcy as soon as today, which is barely one month after the company filed for bankruptcy protection.

Thanks partly to the session's overall positive bias, retailers are putting together one of their best single-session advances in several weeks; retailers are currently up 6.5%.

Retailers are also garnering support in light of some pleasing economic data, which has helped the supposition that a rebound in economic activity will soon send consumers back into stores.

According to the latest data, the ISM Manufacturing Index for May came in at 42.8, which still indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting, but that activity continues to improve since earlier this year. Additionally, construction spending for April showed a surprise 0.8% month-over-month increase, making for two consecutive monthly increases.

In other economic news, personal income for April increased 0.5%, despite continued layoffs and loose labor market conditions. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who expected a 0.2% decrease. Personal spending for April showed another decrease, though the 0.1% decline wasn't as bad as expected and was an improvement from the previous month.

The overall positive bend to the latest batch of economic data has helped drive commodities higher, too. The CRB Commodity Index is currently making one of its best single-session advances in the last month as it jumps 2.2%.

Higher crude oil prices are helping drive the CRB's ascent. Oil is currently trading hands 2.1% higher at $67.70 per barrel, just shy of the 2009 highs that were set earlier this session.

Amid higher stock and commodity prices, Treasuries are getting trounced. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down more than two full points, which has pushed its yield above 3.7%.DJ30 +205.42 NASDAQ +51.91 SP500 +24.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1984/1.37 bln/648 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2612/661 mln/412

12:30 pm : Telecom stocks have fallen to a loss of 0.3% amid weakness in AT&T (T 24.69, -0.10). The telecom sector is currently the only major sector in the S&P 500 to trade with a loss.

Meanwhile, health care stocks are fighting to stay in positive territory. The health care sector is trading just above the unchanged mark as big pharma outfits Pfizer (PFE 14.82, -0.37) and Merck (MRK 27.13, -0.45) are both showing considerable weakness. Fellow drug manufacturer Eli Lilly (LLY 34.36, +0.21) is also in the red, though the company anounced that a recent phase III drug trial of one of its drugs had a favorable impact on the progression-free survival of women with locally advanced cervical cancer.DJ30 +219.12 NASDAQ +52.84 SP500 +24.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2006/1.24 bln/605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2626/604 mln/386

12:00 pm : Stocks are moving sideways after climbing to their best levels in months. Gains remain broad-based as more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 click higher.

As for the Dow, 25 of its 30 components are staging advances. Even shares of General Motors (GM 0.87, +0.12) are advancing, though the company confirmed today that it filed for bankruptcy protection. President Obama is currently speaking to the matter and how the government will make a $30 billion investment in GM.

Though GM remains a Dow component for now, Cisco (CSCO 19.43, +0.93) will replace GM in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on June 8, according to reports.DJ30 +209.88 NASDAQ +48.51 SP500 +23.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1994/1.13 bln/595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2621/551 mln/389

11:30 am : Financial stocks were integral in the strong, upward move that concluded trading last Friday, but the sector hasn't shown the same leadership this session. Though financials are up an impressive 2.2%, the sector has actually lagged the broader market for the entire session.

While they are currently trading with gains, banks have been a noticeable drag on the financial sector. Regional banks are trading just above the unchanged mark and diversified banks are up 1.5%.

However, consumer finance companies are sporting outsized gains as they ascend to a 4.3% gain. Even Discover Financial (DFS 10.09, +0.53) is up markedly in the face of news that Moody's has downgraded Discover's ratings, and assigned a negative outlook to the company. Moody's downgrade reflects the view that Discover's intrinsic credit quality has been diminished by reduced financial flexibility, including reduced access to the securitization market.DJ30 +201.51 NASDAQ +48.18 SP500 +23.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2010/1.00 bln/554 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2609/495 mln/375

11:00 am : Shares of retailers are having an excellent performance. The group is currently up 4.8%, which marks the best single-session percentage advance by retailers since they surged more than 6% at the end of March. With this session's advance, retailers are up 19.5% year-to-date.

Gains within the group are broad-based. However, Target (TGT 41.48, +2.18) is currently providing the most support to the group. Shares of TGT are now up more than 15% year-to-date.DJ30 +207.33 NASDAQ +46.46 SP500 +22.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2004 /810 mln/507 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2602/405 mln/341

10:30 am : Stocks continue climbing upward to fresh session highs. Commodities are also having a strong session as the CRB Commodity Index advances 1.4%.

Underpinning the CRB's ascent is a 1.8% advance in crude oil prices. Crude is currently trading hands at $67.50 per barrel, just shy of the 2009 highs that were set earlier this session.

Natural gas prices are also up handsomely. Contracts are currently being priced 6.8% higher at nearly $4.10 each.

Meanwhile, gold is having a less impressive session, though it continues to come closer to its 2009 high of nearly $1,005 per ounce. Gold was recently quoted 0.2% higher at $981.10 per ounce.DJ30 +183.75 NASDAQ +46.39 SP500 +22.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/643 mln/465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2599/327 mln/309

10:00 am : Stocks are extending their gains in the wake of some upbeat economic data. The run up in stocks this session has taken S&P 500 to its highest level since reaching nearly 944 on January 6.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for May came in at 42.8, which is in step with expectations and still indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting since it is below 50. However, the number has improved during recent months, most recently from April's reading of 40.1 and March's 36.3.

Meanwhile, construction spending for April showed a surprise 0.8% month-over-month increase. Construction spending was expected to decrease 1.5% following a 0.4% increase in March.DJ30 +172.68 NASDAQ +42.33 SP500 +20.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1971/414 mln/437 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2530/226 mln/285

09:45 am : Gains are broad-based in the first few minutes of trading. All 10 sectors are in positive ground.

Financial stocks had been trading as notable laggards. The sector was recently trading just above the unchanged mark, but has since garnered enough support to take it to its current 1.2% gain.

Still, some of the most robust gains are being seen among energy stocks (+2.7%), which are not only benefitting from the strong bias in the broader market, but also being supported by continued gains in crude oil prices. Oil prices are currently up more than 2% to a fresh 2009 high of roughly $67.75 per barrel.

Though energy stocks are trading markedly higher, industrials (+2.9%), materials (+2.7%), and consumer discretionary stocks (+2.7%) are trading with similar gains.DJ30 +123.28 NASDAQ +28.94 SP500 +13.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1782/221 mln/476 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2412/137 mln/288

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.30. This morning's positive tone comes as participants find encouragement following a strong finish to last week's action. Pleasing economic data is also playing a supportive role, though. According to the latest U.S. data, personal income for April showed a surprise increase, while personal spending slipped slightly less than expected. Another batch is due at 10:00 AM ET, which is when the May ISM Manufacturing Index and April construction spending data are released. Pleasing economic data from Europe and Asia are helping drive buying in overseas markets, which is circling back to the U.S. to help feed its positive premarket bias. The strong upward bias has been undeterred by news that Dow component General Motors (GM) is expected to file for bankruptcy today. According to recent reports, GM and Citigroup (C) will be replaced in the Dow by Cisco (CSCO) and Travelers (TRV), effective June 8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00. Foreign markets are trading with impressive gains following some pleasing economic data and a strong finish among U.S. stocks last week. Germany's DAX is up 2.9% amid broad-based strength; all 30 of its components are trading with gains. Siemens (SI) is currently the primary leader in the DAX. In France, the CAC is up 2.0%. BNP Paribas, Pernod-Ricard, Suez Environnement, and Air France are the CAC's only components to trade in the red. Total (TOT) is showing leadership, though. In Britain, the FTSE is up 1.3%. Rio Tinto (RTP) and Barclays (BCS) are providing primary support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 2.8%, helped along by news that China's official PMI came in at a seasonally adjusted 53.1 for May, following 53.5 in April. Data showing China's manufacturing sector continued to expand also provided support. In Japan, the Nikkei tacked on 1.3%. Mining and metal companies spiked. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng leapt 4.0%, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 3.4% higher. Oil and other energy stocks like PetroChina (PTR) saw solid gains. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Ping An Insurance saw strong run ups, too.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +15.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. According to the latest batch of economic data, personal income increased during April by 0.5%, which is better than the 0.2% decrease that was widely expected, and up from the 0.2% decrease registered in March. March's reading was revised upward from a 0.3% decrease. Meanwhile, personal spending for April showed a 0.1% decrease, which is better than the 0.2% decrease that was expected. The reading also showed improvement from the 0.3% decline that was registered in March. The March data was downwardly revised from a 0.2% decline. April's PCE Deflator increased 0.4% year-over-year, as expected. That was down from the 0.6% increase in the previous month. Core PCE for April increased 0.3% month-over-month, slightly better than the 0.2% monthly increase that was expected following the 0.2% monthly increase in March. Year-over-year, April core PCE increased 1.9%, as expected, following a 1.8% annual increase for the previous month. Stock futures continue pointing to a strong start for the major indices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.30. Last week concluded on a high note as buyers rushed into the market in the final hour of Friday's trading to help stocks close at their highest level of the week. Conviction behind the move appeared to be strong as trading volume spiked to the highest level in more than one month. The impressive close is likely helping to prop up stock futures this morning in what is essentially a carryover of momentum. Strength in overseas markets is also lending support to the early bias as European markets react favorably to pleasing PMI data. In terms of U.S. economic data, April personal income and spending data is due at 8:30 AM ET. May ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10:00 AM ET. Reports suggesting that Dow component General Motors (GM) will enter into bankruptcy today is dominating headlines. GM President and CEO Fritz Henderson is expected to hold a media briefing today, though a specific time has not yet been announced. On a similar note, Chrysler LLC could exit bankruptcy reorganization as soon as today, according to The Wall Street Journal.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30.

06:37 am : Nikkei...9677.75...+155.30...+1.60%. Hang Seng...18888.59...+707.60...+4.00%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4488.98...+71.00...+1.60%. DAX...5095.85...+155.10...+3.20%.

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