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 Post subject: May 28th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 7:25 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred yesterday via the 3min chart @ 1351pm est.

There's nothing unusual about that and such helps with the a.m. trading session.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

My Trading Performance: +35.75 Emini ES points

052809NihabaAshiPnLBlotterProfit.png [ 32.88 KiB | Viewed 751 times ]


Dow Ends Up +103 Points
Major indexes advance as investors welcome positive auction results for U.S. debt. Higher oil prices boost the energy sector.
By Ben Rooney, staff writer
Last Updated: May 28, 2009: 5:25 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Stocks ended a volatile session higher Thursday as the government's most recent debt auction saw solid demand and a rise in oil prices boosted shares of energy producers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 103 points, or 1.2% while the broader S&P 500 (SPX) added 14 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 1.2%, adding 20 points.

Oil prices rose above $65 a barrel. ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) all posted gains.

Bank stocks also rose, with Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) up 3% and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) rising nearly 6%.

Stocks had seesawed for most of the session on mixed economic news. But gains accelerated later in the day after the government said it saw healthy demand for Thursday's auction of 7-year notes. That tempered some fears that a rebound of borrowing costs, particularly mortgage rates, could derail an economic recovery.

Investors mostly shrugged off an agreement between General Motors and bondholders on a debt for equity swap. The agreement does not mean the troubled automaker will avoid bankruptcy.

John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan, said the market is undergoing a process of "sideways consolidation."

After climbing about 30% from the lows of early March, stocks have settled into a narrow range as investors look for more convincing signs that an economic recovery is in the works, he said.

"As this trading range narrows, the market is going to be forced to go one way or the other," he said.

Housing: New home sales in April rose 0.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 from a revised rate of 351,000 the month before, according to government figures.

Economists surveyed by had expected an April sales rate of 360,000, while March sales were originally reported at a 356,000 rate.

At the current rate, it would take more than 10 months to sell through the existing inventory of homes on the market, according to the report.

Separately, the number of foreclosure actions started in the first three months of 2009 rose to a record high, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The National Delinquency Survey showed that more than 616,000 home owners were hit with foreclosure actions in the quarter. That's up 27% from the last three months of 2008, and the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in foreclosure starts since the MBA began keeping records in 1972.

Economy: A report on weekly jobless claims showed a larger-than-expected decline, while the monthly report for durable goods orders showed a higher-than-expected increase.

Initial jobless claims fell to 623,000 in the week ended May 23, a decline of 13,000 from the revised figure for the prior week.

Claims were expected to decline to 628,000, according to economists surveyed by

Durable goods orders jumped 1.9% in April, a larger increase than expected. Orders were expected to have risen 0.5% in April, according to the consensus, compared to a revised decline of 2.1% the prior month.

"The economic picture continues to be choppy," said Ryan Larson, senior equity trader at Voyager Asset Management. "We're in an environment where the market is dictated by headlines, and the headlines aren't very good."

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 3.63% from Wednesday's 6-month high of 3.71%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The Treasury Department said it received $58.7 billion worth of bids for the $26 billion in 7-year notes offered Thursday. That made for a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.26, reflecting relatively strong demand.

"With yields rising its making it harder for people to borrow money," Larson said. "That calls into question the government's ability to keep rates low and get credit flowing again."

Mortgage rates, which are pegged to Treasury yields, jumped in the most recent week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.45% in the week ended Wednesday from 5.24% last week.

Companies: Shortly after the closing bell, personal computer maker Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share, slightly better than the 23 cent profit analysts had expected. Still, net income fell 63% as PC sales dipped sharply.

Auto parts supplier Visteon (VSTN, Fortune 500) filed for bankruptcy protection for its U.S. operations. The company, which is a major supplier to Ford (F, Fortune 500), has been hit hard by the sharp decline in demand for cars.

Media powerhouse Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) announced that it would separate itself from online service company AOL. Time Warner said AOL would be spun into a separate publicly traded company.

GM (GM, Fortune 500) shares rose after the troubled automaker said major bondholders have accepted a revised deal to swap debt for equity. However, the deal does not mean that the company will avoid filing for bankruptcy, which could happen at the end of this week if certain other restructuring efforts fail.

Other markets: Stocks in Japan finished the session slightly higher. Markets in Hong Kong and China were closed for a holiday. European shares ended lower with the DAX in Germany falling 1.3%.

In currency trading, the dollar was mixed against rival currencies. It fell against the euro but rose against the pound and the yen, jumping 1.5% against the Japanese currency.

NYMEX crude oil for July delivery rose $1.63 to settle at $65.08 a barrel, after climbing to a high of $65.35. The rally came after the government said U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected last week.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $8.20 an ounce to $961.50.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks spent the first half of the session seeking direction, but they were able to move markedly higher after a 7-year Treasury Note auction went off without any surprises.

Concern that economic recovery efforts could by complicated by higher borrowing costs stemming from rising yields had market participants closely watching today's 7-year Treasury Note auction. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio came in just below 2.3, which was in-line with the past three auctions.

The lack of surprise helped take the benchmark 10-year Note 28 ticks higher after it had oscillated in the early going. The yield on the 10-year Note reached 2009 highs during the prior session; it currently stands at 3.64%, just shy of the 3.7% to 4.0% range that bond guru Bill Gross stated would mark an attractive entry point during a CNBC interview.

With Treasury yields moving off of their highs, stocks were able to put together a sustainable advance and nearly reverse the prior session's losses.

Gains were broad-based, but financials scored the best gains by advancing 3.6%.

Meanwhile, tech giant Microsoft (MSFT 20.45, +0.32) was a primary leader in the Nasdaq amid reports that the company is no longer in serious discussions with Yahoo! (YHOO 15.09, +0.15) to combine search efforts.

General Motors (GM 1.12, -0.03) made gains early on after the company announced that its bondholders accepted an amended debt-for-equity offering. However, it finished with a loss as investors continue to question whether the company will be able to avoid bankruptcy.

Shares of retailers (-1.3%) underperformed the broader market for the entire session. Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD 22.70, -0.63) and Lowe's (LOW 19.02, -0.61) were primary laggards in the group after first quarter mortgage delinquencies clicked higher to 9.1%, threatening to add to housing inventory and depress building activity.

To that point, annualized new home sales for April came in near expectations, but the monthly change fell short of expectations.

In other economic news, April durable goods orders, both including and excluding transportation, topped expectations. However, March orders were revised markedly lower.

Continuing jobless claims continue climbing to record levels, most recently coming in close to 6.8 million. However, initial weekly claims came in at 623,000, suggesting that the pace of layoffs is slowing.

In commodities trading, oil prices settled 2.5% higher above $65 per barrel for the first time since November. The advance was helped along by bullish inventory data, which followed news that OPEC will hold production steady, as expected.

Gold prices closed at $960.80 per ounce, up 0.7%. Gold prices are now up more than 10% since hitting their 2009 lows in mid-April.DJ30 +103.78 NASDAQ +20.71 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +13.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/2.24 bln/1177 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2001/1.37 bln/1042

3:35 pm : Bullish inventory data helped spur crude oil prices higher following news that OPEC decided to hold production at current levels, as expected. Crude oil futures closed at $65.01 per barrel, up 2.5%, marking levels not seen since early November 2008.

July natural gas closed at $3.96 per contract, up 8.8% in the face of a weekly inventory build.

Precious metals also performed well this session.

Gold futures contracts closed at $960.80 per ounce, up 0.7%. Gold futures contracts are now up more than 10% since hitting 2009 lows in the middle of April.

July silver closed up 2.0% for the session to finish at $15.16 per ounce. Silver futures contracts are now trading at levels not seen since August 2008.DJ30 +92.47 NASDAQ +19.43 SP500 +12.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1358/1.89 bln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1896/995 mln/1124

3:00 pm : This afternoon's upward move has taken the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year (+0.5%). Meanwhile, the Dow remains down 4.1% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq is up 11.1% year-to-date.

Treasuries are also climbing higher in afternoon trading. During a CNBC interview, bond guru Bill Gross stated that Treasuries carry an attractive entry price when their yields are between 3.7% and 4.0%. The 10-year Note is currently yielding 3.68%. November was the last time that yields on the 10-year Note consistently traded near current levels.DJ30 +111.75 NASDAQ +20.40 SP500 +14.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/1.69 bln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1964/885 mln/1055

2:35 pm : Stocks have moved another leg higher, and are moving closer to reclaiming all of the prior session's losses. Gains remain broad-based, but energy stocks (+3.8%) remain the session's best performing sector.DJ30 +133.17 NASDAQ +23.20 SP500 +16.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1476/1.57 bln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2016/823 mln/988

2:00 pm : The stock market has eased off of its session high, but continues to sport an impressive gain. The advance remains broad-based.

Contrary to the prior session, the Nasdaq is lagging the other headline indices, though by a small margin. Microsoft (MSFT 20.43, +0.30) is attempting to provide leadership to the Nasdaq, however. Microsoft's advance comes after reports indicate that the company is no longer in serious talks with Yahoo! (YHOO 15.05, +0.11) to combine their search efforts.

Meanwhile, Time Warner (TWX 23.45, +0.45) has confirmed its plan to separate AOL. Following a proposed transaction, AOL would be an independent, publicly traded company. Google (GOOG 410.04, +4.48) currently owns 5% of AOL. DJ30 +65.87 NASDAQ +11.46 SP500 +9.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/1.42 bln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/748 mln/1239

1:30 pm : Following an unsurprising 7-year Treasury Note auction, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have climbed to their best levels of the session. The Nasdaq Composite, however, has yet to eclipse its morning highs.

Still, the upward move by the broader market has taken nine of the 10 major sectors into positive territory. Consumer discretionary stocks (-0.3%) remain the only sector to trade with a loss; the sector is being dragged lower by weakness in shares of retailers (-1.4%).

Weakness among shares of retailers is widespread. Even shares of discount retailer Big Lots (BIG 22.89, -0.76) and apparel retailer Coldwater Creek (CWTR 3.80, -0.15) have fallen into the red, despite posting earnings per share results for the latest quarter that topped analysts' expectations.DJ30 +69.05 NASDAQ +14.21 SP500 +10.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/1.31 bln/1293 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/690 mln/1172

1:05 pm : After recently trading in mixed fashion, stocks are spiking in the wake of the latest 7-year Treasury Note auction.

The major indices started the session with strong gains as April durable goods orders topped expectations. Orders excluding transportation were also better than expected. Some of the positive surprise surrounding the data was mitigated by the fact that orders for March were revised markedly lower.

News that continuing jobless claims continue to rise to record levels also softened enthusiasm, even though the latest batch of weekly jobless claims suggest that the pace of layoffs is slowing.

In other economic news, annualized new home sales for April came in close to the consensus forecast, but the monthly increase in sales fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies continue to click higher, most recently coming in at 9.1% for the first quarter. Higher delinquencies threaten to flood the housing market with more inventory, which further depresses home building activity. Shares of homebuilders are currently down 8.0%.

Choppy trading has followed the new homes sales data, with rebound efforts stymied by a pullback in Treasuries, which is pushing yields higher. Rising yields in the prior session gave way to selling in stocks as participants were concerned that higher borrowing costs could complicate economic recovery efforts.

Given the adverse impact of rising Treasury yields on stocks during the prior session, market participants are digesting the results of a 7-year Treasury Note auction to see how it will impact the yield curve. According to the results, the bid-to-cover for 7-year Notes with a 3.3% yield came in at 2.26. That ratio was in-line with the past three auctions.

The benchmark 10-year Note had been up more than one full point, but it is now trading just 8 ticks higher after recently being near the unchanged mark.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices are up 1.8% to $64.60 per barrel following a larger-than-expected inventory draw and news that OPEC is leaving production targets unchanged, as expected.

The rise in oil prices is helping the energy sector outperform the broader market by climbing to a 1.9% gain. Energy stocks are off their session high, though. Financial stocks are also showing strength. The financial sector is up 1.0% currently.

Separately, General Motors (GM 1.19, +0.04) has been trading with volatility after announcing that its bondholders have accepted an amended debt-for-equity deal, though many believe that won't help the company avoid bankruptcy.DJ30 +14.50 NASDAQ +3.59 SP500 +5.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1066/1.18 bln/1508 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1537/627 mln/1396

12:30 pm : Stocks are struggling to find a clear direction. The major indices are on the backslide once again, which follows a rebound from session lows that surpassed those registered Wednesday.

The most recent downturn among equities comes as Treasuries pare their gains to send their yields upward. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up 9 ticks after being up a full point earlier in the session. The downward move in the Note comes ahead of the latest results from the 7-year Note auction, which are scheduled to be released at the top of the hour.

Energy stocks are still sporting enviable gains, though their advance came under pressure earlier. The energy sector is currently up 2.3%, but it was up 2.9% at its session high. DJ30 -6.85 NASDAQ -3.45 SP500 +2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 989/1.05 bln/1546 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1469/558 mln/1457

12:00 pm : The broader market is sporting a solid gain, but retailers are standing out as laggards. As a group, retailers are down 1.3%.

The downturn by retailers is being led by home improvement outfits, which are also dragging the consumer discretionary sector down 0.5%. Consumer discretionary stocks make up the only sector to trade with a loss.DJ30 +49.38 NASDAQ +8.16 SP500 +9.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1178/935 mln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1708/501 mln/1187

11:30 am : The major headline indices are all back into positive ground, but the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index (-0.5%) are still trading with losses.

Though small-caps are still stuck in the red, Perry Ellis (PERY 7.90, +1.09) is sporting solid gains after posting better-than-expected earnings. Shares of PERY are showing leadership and limiting losses in the Russell 2000.DJ30 +27.16 NASDAQ +1.74 SP500 +5.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/823 mln/1384 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1587/443 mln/1281

11:00 am : The major indices are making an upward turn and are now back to trading in mixed fashion. However, financial stocks are putting together an impressive advance, climbing to a 1.7% gain to trade at session highs.

Energy stocks are also outperforming the broader market. The energy sector is currently up 1.3% amid strength in oil and gas exploration companies (+1.8%), oil and gas refiners (+1.5%), and oil and gas drillers (+1.4%).

Higher crude oil prices are also providing a boon for energy stocks. Crude prices spiked to a 2% gain to trade at $64.70 per barrel immediately following news that weekly inventory data showed a draw of 5.4 million barrels. A draw of roughly 150,000 barrels had been expected. DJ30 +5.02 NASDAQ -2.53 SP500 +2.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 989/689 mln/1447 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1471/373 mln/1338

10:35 am : Crude oil prices are up a healthy 0.7% to $63.90 per barrel following OPEC's decision to leave production targets unchanged. Traders will be factoring the latest inventory data into prices when the data is released at the top of the hour.

Meanwhile, natural gas inventories showed a weekly build, but that hasn't stopped natural gas prices from spiking to session highs near $3.68 per contract, up 1.2%.

Precious metals are also garnering support. Gold is currently being priced 0.4% higher at $957.40 per ounce, while silver is being priced 1.7% higher at $15.12 per ounce.DJ30 -21.74 NASDAQ -6.62 SP500 -2.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 862/574 mln/1529 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1188/307 mln/1579

10:05 am : A flurry of selling pressure has erased broad-based gains and left the major indices trading in mixed fashion. The pressure started just ahead of the latest batch of new home sales and mortgage delinquency statistics, but it intensified with the release of the data.

New home sales for April came in at an annualized rate of 352,000, which is a bit below the 360,000 that was widely expected. The prior month's sales were revised moderately lower to reflect annualized sales of 351,000 new homes. Month-over-month, new home sales were up 0.3%, which is shy of the 1.1% increase that was expected, but up from the 3.0% monthly decline that was seen in March.

Meanwhile, the ratio of mortgage delinquencies to total loans came in at 9.1%, up from 7.9%.DJ30 +1.67 NASDAQ -0.24 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/324 mln/1226 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1351/198 mln/1339

09:40 am : Stocks are putting together a solid start as they rebound from the prior session's downturn.

Shares of General Motors (GM 1.30, +0.15) have been halted after they had spiked more than 10% in the first few minutes of trading. According to CNBC, GM bondholders have accepted an amended debt-for-equity offer after GM's previous offer expired late Tuesday night.

Despite the strong start for stocks, Treasuries are moving higher in the early going. The benchmark 10-year Note is working to reclaim its losses from the prior session, when it shed more than an entire point. The 10-year Note is currently up 35 ticks, which has pushed its yield back down to 3.61%.DJ30 +57.51 NASDAQ +15.24 SP500 +7.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1554/118 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2038/79 mln/513

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Just a few minutes remain before the opening bell tolls, but stock futures have managed to improve a bit to suggest a moderately higher start is in order for the major indices. The uptick comes after April durable goods orders, both including and excluding transportation, were better than expected. However, the data for March was revised markedly lower. Meanwhile, the latest batch of weekly jobless claims suggest that the pace of layoffs is slowing, but that continuing claims continue to rise to record levels. Another batch of economic news is due at 10:00 AM ET when both new home sales for April and first quarter mortgage delinquencies are released. In corporate news, during a presentation today Procter & Gamble (PG) offered in-line guidance for fiscal 2009, but expects earnings for fiscal 2010 to range from $3.65 to $3.80 per share, which is short of the current consensus estimate of $3.93 per share. Meanwhile, H.J. Heinz (HNZ) issued downside guidance of its own. That has overshadowed the company's better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and decision to increase its quarterly dividend. Bank of America (BAC) is commencing an offer to exchange up to 200 million shares of common stock for outstanding preferred stock as part of a previously announced plan. Given the adverse impact of rising Treasury yields on stocks during the prior session, market participants will be paying close attention to the results of a 7-year Treasury Note auction later today (1:00 PM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. European stocks are under pressure as Germany's DAX drops 1.1% amid weakness in financial outfit Deutsche Bank (DB), engineering giant Siemens (SI), and automaker Daimler (DAI). Financial holdings and metals and mining companies are leading losses in Britain's FTSE, which is currently down 1.0%. Specifically, HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), Rio Tinto (RTP), and BHP Billiton (BHP) are among the FTSE's primary laggards. After climbing higher in each of the past four sessions, financial outfit BNP Paribas is leading France's CAC 1.0% lower. Diversified energy giant Total (TOT) is also casting a weight on the CAC. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index shed 0.8% amid weakness in banks and healthcare companies, while Japan's Nikkei eked out a 0.1% gain with help from exporters. Toyota Motor (TM) and Canon (CAJ) both advanced. Sumitomo Metal Mining also made gains. In China, the Shanghai Composite was closed for holiday, and so was Hong Kong's Hang Seng.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. There is a fair amount of economic data on tap this morning. Durable goods orders data for April were just released and show an increase of 1.9%, which is better than the 0.5% increase that was expected by economists. Meanwhile, the previous data was revised downward to reflect a 2.1% decrease. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders for April climbed 0.8%, which is better than the 0.3% decline that was widely anticipated. Durable goods orders less transporation for March were revised downward to reflect a 2.7% decrease. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 22 totaled 623,000, which was slightly below the 628,000 initial claims that were expected. Claims for the prior week were revised upward to 636,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims notched another record high by coming in at 6.79 million, which exceeds the 6.75 million continuing claims that were generally expected. Continuing claims increased 110,000 week-over-week. Both new home sales for April and first quarter mortgage delinquencies are due at 10:00 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures currently point to a flat start for the major indices as early participants digest news from The Wall Street Journal suggesting that consumer staples giant Procter & Gamble (PG) is expected to issue cautious earnings guidance for the coming fiscal year at an investor presentation today. Meanwhile, HJ Heinz (HJ) reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.56 per share, which is better than the consensus of $0.55 per share. The company expects earnings for fiscal 2010 to range from $2.60 to $2.70 per share, but that is below the $2.74 per share consensus forecast. HJ Heinz has raised its quarterly dividend to $0.42 per share from $0.415 per share. As expected, OPEC agreed to leave output levels unchanged, marking the second time in two months that such a decision has been made. According to The Wall Street Journal, Exxon Mobil's (XOM) CEO indicated that he suspects a recent jump in oil prices was due partly to investors anticipating a recovery. He also indicated that it is still too early to determine whether the U.S. economy has turned a corner. Oil prices are currently unchanged at $63.45 per barrel in electronic trading. Oil prices will likely come into sharper focus when weekly inventory data is released later this morning.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50.

06:18 am : Nikkei...9451.39...+12.60...+0.10%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:18 am : FTSE...4374.95...-41.30...-0.90%. DAX...4951.82...-49.00...-1.00%.

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