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 Post subject: May 26th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2009 5:04 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - Although I didn't trade the a.m. trading session resulting in missing the big upmove to the upside...the key change in supply/demand occurred @ 0712am est (a sneaky one) that setup the price surge to the upside @ 0932am est.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

My Trading Performance: +4.75 Emini ES points


Stocks Snap 4-Session Losing Streak
Wall Street cheers signs that consumers' moods brightened in May, offsetting a dour housing report.
By Ben Rooney, staff writer
Last Updated: May 26, 2009: 4:17 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Stocks soared Tuesday, with the Dow gaining nearly 200 points, after a report showing consumer confidence hit an eight-month high offset dismal housing news.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 195 points, or 2.3%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 2.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 3.4%.

Tuesday marked the first time the Dow and S&P 500 closed in positive territory since May 18.

Stocks opened lower on concerns about North Korea, which had test fired missiles after conducting a nuclear test Monday, along with worries over a report that showed a record plunge in U.S. home prices.

But a much stronger-than-expected consumer confidence reading offset those concerns and encouraged investors to jump back into the market after several down days.

The rally was broad based, with 28 of the 30 Dow components advancing. IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), which jumped 3%, led the gainers.

Shares of energy producers rose as the price of oil closed at a 6-month high above $62 a barrel. Consumer related names, such as McDonalds (MCD, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), also advanced.

Economy: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April. Economists surveyed by had expected the index to rise to 42.

The index now stands at its highest level since September, when it reached 61.4. But that's still low by historical standards.

The report was "a good sign," said Todd Leone, head trader at Cowen & Co. "We definately saw buyers come into the market."

Investors pay close attention to measures of consumer confidence because spending by consumers makes up the bulk of U.S. economic activity.

Separately, a closely watched index of home prices dropped a record 19.1% in the first quarter.

The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, which tracks 20 of the largest housing markets, has plummeted 32.2% from its July 2006 peak and has declined for 32 straight months. It fell 18.2% in the previous quarter.

Companies: Investors are waiting to hear more about the fate of General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler.

Tuesday marks that last day that GM bondholders, who hold $27 billion in unsecured debt from the company, can accept an offer to swap $1,000 of the debt for 225 shares of the company. GM faces a June 1 deadline to produce a turnaround plan or file for what would be the largest industrial bankruptcy in the nation's history.

The leadership of the United Auto Workers union met Tuesday to review the tentative agreement reached last week with GM on changes to its 2007 labor deal. A source familiar with the agreement told that the union-controlled trust fund will receive a 17.5% stake in GM as a result of the deal.

Shares of GM rose 0.7%.

Meanwhile, the federal judge in Chrysler LLC's Chapter 11 case could decide Wednesday whether the automaker can pull its best performing assets out of bankruptcy and sell them to a newly-formed incarnation of itself, called Chrysler Group.

In other company news, shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rose 6% after analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded the iPhone maker's stock.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped with the yield on the benchmark 10-year at 3.51%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The Treasury sold $40 billion in 2-year notes Tuesday, kicking off a week packed with debt auctions. The 2-year note sale was strongly bid for, with $117.5 billion in bids coming in for $40 billion in debt.

Other markets:Oil for July delivery rose 68 cents to settle at $62.45 a barrel ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week. Traders expect the cartel to leave output unchanged at the meeting. Oil prices have settled above the $60 mark for four straight sessions and are now at a more than six-month high.

In currency trading, the dollar was mixed against its major trading partners. The greenback rose against the euro but fell against the pound and the yen.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $5.60 to settle at $953.30 an ounce.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Better-than-expected consumer confidence data gave participants some anecdotal evidence that economic conditions may be improving, which brought about broad-based gains for the major indices.

Given the lack of news in the early going, the broader market looked to the May Consumer Confidence Index for guidance. With the May reading coming in at a better-than-expected 54.9, up from the prior reading of 40.8, buying immediately followed and helped stocks overcome a lackluster start.

Retailers responded to the increase in the consumer confidence by advancing 4.0%, though higher consumer confidence has yet translate into higher consumer spending.

Along with strength in retailers, General Motors (GM 1.44, +0.01) helped the consumer discretionary sector climb 3.8%. GM recovered from a loss in excess of 10% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Auto Workers union said the government will provide massive additional financial assistance to GM.

Meanwhile large-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL 130.78, +8.28), which was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley, helped give the Nasdaq its best percentage advance since early April. Tech finished 3.3% higher.

Not to be outdone, financials finished 4.1% higher. Though that was more than any other major sector in the S&P 500, gains were still impressive across the board -- every major sector finished with a gain in excess of 1%.

Strength in stocks forced further selling in fixed income securities. The 10-year Treasury Note dropped roughly 23 ticks, which has pushed its yield to a fresh 2009 high of 3.54%. DJ30 +196.17 NASDAQ +58.42 NQ100 +3.6% R2K +4.8% SP400 +3.8% SP500 +23.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2106/2.09 bln/614 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2531/1.38 bln/518

3:30 pm : Energy commodities started the session weak, but saw a lift, in tandem with the market, following better-than-expected Consumer Confidence data.

June natural gas futures finished the session relatively unchanged at $3.53 per contract after being down as much as 3.4% in the early pit trade.

July crude oil futures traded in similar fashion. After opening substantially lower and hitting a session low at $59.60 per barrel, the crude oil contracts rose for the rest of the session. They closed at $62.38 per barrel, up 1.2%.

Precious metals did not fare so well this session. Both gold and silver futures were also able to recover from morning lows but still finished down 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.

June gold futures closed at $953.30 per once and July silver futures closed at $14.60 per ounce. DJ30 +182.56 NASDAQ +52.16 SP500 +21.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2047/1.70 bln/659 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2472/940 mln/564

3:00 pm : Gains remain strong and broad-based as roughly 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 trade with gains. Coca-Cola (KO 47.18, -0.12) is currently the only Dow-listed company to trade with a loss.DJ30 +185.98 NASDAQ +51.81 SP500 +21.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2057/1.52 bln/634 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2463/852 mln/553

2:30 pm : Stocks are stuck in a bit of sideways trading, but continue to sport impressive gains. The advance remains broad-based as every major sector in the S&P 500 trades with a gain exceeding 1%.

Small- and mid-cap stocks are seeing some of the best gains this session. Currently, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 4.4% and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 3.7%.DJ30 +200.71 NASDAQ +55.22 SP500 +22.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2067/1.40 bln/612 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2484/778 mln/531

2:00 pm : The technology sector is currently up 3.4%, thanks to leadership from large-cap tech holdings. Such leadership is also helping the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts and log its best single-session percentage gain in more than one month.

Currently, Apple (AAPL 130.72, +8.22), Microsoft (MSFT 20.43, +0.68), and Cisco (CSCO 18.55, +0.65) are providing the strongest lift to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500's tech sector. DJ30 +201.67 NASDAQ +55.87 SP500 +22.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/1.28 bln/613 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2484/709 mln/512

1:30 pm : The major indices are just off their session highs. Meanwhile, shares of General Motors (GM 1.48, +0.05) are spiking upward from negative territory to their best levels of the day amid word from The Wall Street Journal indicating that the United Auto Workers union stated the government will provide massive additional financial assistance to GM.DJ30 +202.31 NASDAQ +54.95 SP500 +22.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2039/1.20 bln/607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2454/655 mln/529

1:00 pm : Stocks stumbled at the start of the session, but quickly ascended to trade with impressive gains in the wake of some surprisingly positive consumer confidence data.

According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index for May spiked from 40.8 to 54.9, which marks the highest reading since September. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6.

Though empirical evidence suggests there isn't much of a connection between consumer confidence and actual consumer spending, participants are piling into shares of retailers. That has taken retailers, as a group, up 4.2% this session.

Despite the impulse to drive retailers higher this session, the retail industry continues to face the challenges of a weak labor market and falling home prices. To that point, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for March dropped 18.7%, which is close to what was expected. Prices have dropped at a double-digit clip for 15 straight months.

With labor and housing markets still weak and likely to make a slow recovery, General Electric (GE 13.56, +0.46) CEO Jeffrey Immelt stated that GE's growth will be harder to come by in coming years. However, this session's upbeat tone has led investors to shrug off the cautious comments and push shares of the conglomerate markedly higher.

Broad-based buying has also lifted the energy sector to a healthy gain. Energy stocks had been trading with losses in excess of 1% amid weakness in oil prices, but energy stocks have rebounded to trade with a 1.3% gain.

Crude oil prices have also rebounded. Oil prices were down more than 2% in early pit trading, but they are now up 0.3% to $61.85 per barrel. Oil's gyrations come as participants speculate whether OPEC will make production cuts at this week's meeting. The early indication is that cuts are unlikely.

Gold prices have also managed to peel off of their lows, but still trade with weakness. Gold prices are currently down 0.7% to $952.30 per ounce.

Strength in equities has also caused investors to shun Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Note had been trading higher early on, but is now down 7 ticks, which has pushed its yield to a fresh high for 2009.DJ30 +204.30 NASDAQ +55.72 SP500 +22.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2028/1.10 bln/603 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2441/601 mln/523

12:30 pm : This session's action continues to favor the bulls. The buying effort has taken the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year; the benchmark index is now up 0.4% year-to-date.

The Dow has yet to make its way back to a year-to-date gain, however. The blue chip index is currently down 3.7% for 2009.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is sporting an enviable 10.6% year-to-date gain.DJ30 +177.77 NASDAQ +52.68 SP500 +19.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/1.00 bln/592 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2407/544 mln/542

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to extend its advance as more than 90% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 sport gains.

Apple (AAPL 129.41, +6.91) is currently a primary leader in the S&P 500. Its strength follows an upgrade from analysts at Morgan Stanley. Apple is currently putting together its best single-session advance by percent in two months.DJ30 +170.53 NASDAQ +52.63 SP500 +19.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1995/907 mln/598 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2387/485 mln/542

11:30 am : Shares of retailers are up a robust 3.5% amid broad strength in the group. Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD 23.67, +0.81) and Lowe's (LOW 20.00, +0.63) are showing the most leadership, though.

The advance by retailers comes as consumer confidence spikes to levels not seen in more than six months. However, the lift in confidence should be treated with caution since it is lagging in nature and often uncorrelated with actual consumer spending.DJ30 +165.75 NASDAQ +46.00 SP500 +17.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1957/807 mln/595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2321/430 mln/579

11:00 am : Stocks have ascended to fresh session highs. Gains are broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 sport gains.

Technology (+2.8%), telecom (+2.6%), industrials (+2.6%), and consumer discretionary stocks (+2.8%) are making the most enviable advances.

Energy stocks lag, but still sport a healthy 0.9% gain.DJ30 +158.90 NASDAQ +43.49 SP500 +16.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/686 mln/553 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2272/370 mln/574

10:30 am : Crude oil prices have pared their losses and now trade at $61.45 per barrel, down just 0.4%. Crude prices had been down more than 2% earlier.

Natural gas prices are also down a relatively modest 0.4%. Contracts are currently trading at $3.52 each.

Precious metals prices are contending with considerable selling pressure. Gold was last quoted 1.2% lower at $947.50 per ounce, while silver is off by 1.3% to $14.51 per ounce.DJ30 +136.28 NASDAQ +38.17 SP500 +13.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1822/523 mln/593 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2119/291 mln/675

10:05 am : Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6. DJ30 +74.23 NASDAQ +14.25 SP500 +6.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1632/323 mln/688 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/193 mln/893

09:45 am : Stocks are trading in mixed fashion during the first few minutes of the session. Shares of retailers are making impressive headway (+1.7%) ahead of the latest Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET). Meanwhile, losses are considerable among materials stocks (-1.5%) and energy stocks (-1.4%).DJ30 -0.64 NASDAQ +4.73 SP500 -1.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/163 mln/991 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1113/113 mln/1483

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.50. Following a long, holiday weekend, traders and investors are returning to the fold and resuming the selling efforts seen late last week. The downward bias is being extended as European stocks slip amid news that Germany's economy, which is the largest in its continent, contracted at a record rate in the first quarter, and losses in Asia follow nuclear testing in North Korea. Corporate headlines remain sparse and economic data has featured another ugly downturn in home prices, according to the March S&P CaseShiller Index. Participants will get a little more economic data with the May Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. The S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index for March came in at 140.0. That is down from the prior reading of 143.1, which was revised incrementally lower. Meanwhile, the 20-City Composite for March showed a 18.7% decline, which is steeper than the 18.4% decline that was expected. The February reading was revised fractionally lower to show a 18.7% decline. Stock futures continue pointing to a lower start for the major indices.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Stocks are showing weakness in European trading. Germany's DAX is down 1.1% following news that the country's GDP declined 3.8% from the previous quarter, which marked the fourth straight quarterly decline and the worst in nearly 40 years of record keeping. Engineering giant Siemens (SI) is a primary laggard in the DAX. Losses in London are also considerable; the FTSE is down 0.6%. HSBC (HBC) is a primary laggard. BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are also weighing on action. According to The Wall Street Journal, Royal Dutch Shell executive director Linda Cook is stepping down. In France, the CAC is off by 1.0%. Integrated oil and gas outfit Total (TOT) is currently the session's primary laggard. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.4%. Tokyo Electronics and Fast Retailing were a drag on trading. Despite news that Japan raised its economic outlook for the first time in three years on Monday, geopolitical tension in North Korea is causing some concern in the region. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.8% amid weakness in HSBC and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Energy player CNOOC (CEO) also showed considerable weakness.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.50. There aren't many corporate headlines out this morning. As for economic data, the March S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index is due at 9:00 AM ET, followed by the Consumer Confidence Index for May at 10:00 AM ET. For now, market participants are taking their cues from a overseas trading, which feature sizable losses in Europe and Asia.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.30.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9310.81...-36.20...-0.40%. Hang Seng...16991.56...-130.30...-0.80%.

06:21 am : FTSE...4330.15...-35.10...-0.80%. DAX...4850.13...-68.50...-1.40%.

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