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 Post subject: May 19th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2009 4:30 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

3min Regular Session Chart - The 1027am est interval provided support for price reversals around 1127am, 1303pm and 1409pm est back to the upside along with being profit targets for those looking for points or just a few trades.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=193

My Trading Performance: +15.00 Emini ES points

Attachment:
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Stocks Slog To Mixed Finish
Dow ends lower, Nasdaq edges up after housing data raise doubts about an economic recovery.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 19, 2009: 5:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended mixed Tuesday, after trading in a tight range on both sides of breakeven, following an unexpected drop in homebuilding that clouded the economic outlook.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 29 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) index lost less than 2 points. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained about 2 points.

Bank stocks showed early strength but gains faded near the closing bell. Shares of energy producers rose along with crude prices, which settled near $60 a barrel.

After the close, tech bellwether Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported quarterly profit and revenue that was in line with estimates.

Stocks have gained significant ground over the past two months on bets the economy is headed for a recovery later this year. The major indexes all rose about 3% Monday after ending the previous week lower.

"On balance, we've got a market that has had an incredibly significant bounce from the lows of March 9 and is looking for new catalysts to go higher," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Boston.

Among the potential catalysts for Wednesday's session: Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last month will give investors a glimpse into how the central bank views the economy. And retail heavyweight Target (TGT, Fortune 500) will report fiscal first-quarter financial results before the opening bell.

While many analysts say the market is due for a pull back given the strength of the recent rally, Wall Street remains relatively optimistic about the possibility of moderate economic growth in the months ahead.

"The general theme is that some recent reports are starting to show signs of stabilization in the decline, and that's providing some relief," said Ryan Larson, senior equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management in Chicago.

In a sign the market is becoming slightly more confident, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, fell below the key 30 level for the first time since September. The so-called fear index hit an all-time high of 77 in October when the global economy was on the verge of a meltdown.

Economy: The Commerce Department reported record lows for housing starts and building permits in April.

Housing starts dropped nearly 13% to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 from a revised 525,000 in March. Building permits fell 3% to an annually adjusted rate of 494,000 in April, from the revised rate of 511,000 in March.

But the report had a bright spot. While multifamily dwellings declined sharply, starts and permits for single-family homes at the core of the housing market rose slightly.

Many analysts said the decline in new home construction was positive since the residential real estate market is already overstocked with unsold homes.

Banks: The Federal Reserve is in talks with a number of banks about repaying billions of dollars in government bailout funds they received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) are among the largest banks that have applied to repay TARP money, sources told Reuters.

The banks are rushing to return the funds to avoid what they say are restrictive policies and demonstrate to investors that they are financially healthy.

Companies: Hewlett-Packard Co. reported a 17% drop in quarterly profit that still met Wall Street's forecasts. Sales fell 3% in the quarter.

HP said its results were hurt by charges related to its purchase of tech services firm EDS. The stock fell 4% in after-hours trading.

Earlier, home-improvement retailer Home Depot reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations. The company posted operating income of 35 cents per share, while a consensus of analyst forecasts from Thomson Reuters had expected 29 cents.

Despite the report, shares of Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) fell more than 5%.

Shares of luxury retailer Saks (SKS) jumped 22% after it reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and said it would continue to aggressively cut costs to offset declining sales.

Credit card company American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) said late Monday that it would slash 4,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global workforce.

Autos: President Obama announced stricter fuel economy standards aimed at cutting down vehicle greenhouse gas emissions.

While many automakers welcomed the effort to make the standards more universal, analysts said consumers may be reluctant to shift to smaller, more efficient cars if gas prices remain relatively low.

The national average price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline rose to $2.314, its 21th consecutive increase, according to a daily reading released by the motorist group AAA.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.24% from 3.21% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: Stocks in Japan rallied, with the Nikkei gaining nearly 3%. India's benchmark SENSEX index closed moderately higher after a 17% surge in the previous session. European exchanges closed higher, with the DAX in Germany up 2.2%.

In currency trading, the dollar fell against major international currencies, including the euro, the British pound and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 62 cents to settle at $59.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose to a high of $60.48 in pre-market, electronic trading.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $5 to settle at $926.70 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A late selling effort caused stocks to close a choppy session in mixed fashion. The session's lack of direction followed disappointing housing data and a pullback by financial stocks.

News that housing starts and building permits recently fell below expectations jostled participants in the early going and undermined what was a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. Housing starts during April came in at an annualized rate of 458,000, while building permits for April hit a rate of 494,000. Both marked record lows.

However, there is a silver lining to the report. Fewer housing starts and building permits means there will be fewer homes on the market, which should help clear the glut of existing homes and improve pricing.

Contrasting its performance in the prior session, financials were the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. They finished 2.6% lower amid weakness in consumer finance stocks and banking stocks.

Consumer finance companies (-4.8%) saw their shares come under increased pressure following news that the Senate has passed legislation to place new restrictions on the credit card industry. Dow component American Express (AXP 24.79, -1.34) showed particular weakness, even though the company announced plans to save $800 million this year by slashing jobs, investments, and costs.

Diversified banks dropped 4.9% as participants shrugged off news that the Fed has expanded collateral eligible under its TALF to include high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities in order to ease balance sheet pressures. The Fed's announcement was made in the wake of a report from The Wall Street Journal that suggested commercial real-estate loans could generate $100 billion in bank losses by next year.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported that TARP repayment announcements will not be made until after June 8, and that the Treasury will announce a process for auctioning TARP warrants in the next several days.

On a similar note, Financial Times reported that Britain has begun talks with sovereign wealth funds and other investors about selling stakes in its part-nationalized banks.

Health care stocks also traded as laggards. They finished with a 0.6% loss, though AmerisourceBergen (ABC 35.96, +0.38) showed strength after it announced better-than-expected earnings, raised its guidance, hiked its quarterly dividend by 20%, and issued a 2-for-1 stock split.

There weren't many earnings reports for participants to assess this session. However, Dow component Home Depot (HD 24.63, -1.39) did post better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. That wasn't enough to win the company favor among participants, though. The stock surrendered nearly all of its gains from the prior session, and traded as a laggard among retailers, which finished the session 0.3% higher.

Utilities made up the best performing sector by finishing 1.7% higher. The strong performance followed a flat finish in the prior session, and losses in the three preceding sessions.

Only a handful of companies are scheduled to announce earnings results ahead of tomorrow's opening bell. The minutes from the FOMC's April 29 meeting are due at 2:00 PM ET and should help provide investors with details regarding the Fed's quantitative easing efforts.DJ30 -29.23 NASDAQ +2.18 NQ100 +0.4% R2K -0.3% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1348/2.13 bln/1315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1806/1.35 bln/1219

3:35 pm : The equity markets continue to trade in a choppy fashion on light volume.

Silver futures were the primary leader among commodities as natural gas futures were the primary laggard this session.

June crude oil futures, which expired at the close of trade this session, finished at $59.65 per barrel, up 1.1%. The new front month July contract finished slightly higher at $60.09 per barrel, up 0.8%. The July contracts recorded session highs narrowly under $60.50 per barrel late in the pit trade. The DOE will release crude oil inventory data tomorrow morning at 10:30 ET.

Natural gas contracts gave up yesterday's gains and then some. The contracts traded below the $4 mark in the middle of the session and closed at $3.91 per contract, down 5.6%.

June gold futures contracts opened near its worst levels of the session but proceeded to move steadily higher. The June contracts finished at $927.00 per ounce, near the session's best levels, up 0.5%.

July silver futures staged an impressive rally this session. The silver futures finished 2.2% higher at $14.13 per ounce. Silver futures contracts are now trading at levels not seen since late February.DJ30 -0.32 NASDAQ +9.80 SP500 +3.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1396/1.75 bln/1261 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1958/975 mln/1071

3:05 pm : The Nasdaq and S&P 500 climb to fresh session highs.

Dow Jones reports that U.S. lawmakers are considering making credit rating companies more susceptible to class action lawsuits.DJ30 +19.43 NASDAQ +15.04 SP500 +5.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1477/1.56 bln/1178 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2053/874 mln/949

2:30 pm : The Fed announced that certain high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities issued before January 1, 2009 will become eligible collateral under the TALF, starting in July. The plan is designed to restart the market for legacy securities and stimulate the extension of new credit by helping to ease balance sheet pressures on banks and other financial institutions, ultimately increasing credit availability and support economic activity.

The announcement comes amid concerns that commercial real-estate loans could generate losses of what The Wall Street Journal estimates to be $100 billion by next year.

Financial stocks continue to trade with a loss, though they are off of their session lows. The sector is down 0.6% with diversified banks down 2.6%.DJ30 +14.18 NASDAQ +12.28 SP500 +4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/1.44 bln/1234 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/810 mln/1000

2:00 pm : Health care stocks continue to trade as laggards. The sector is down 0.7%, only a bit above its session low.

Medtronic (MDT 31.58, -2.38) is a primary laggard within the sector. The company announced this morning plans to cut its global workforce by 1,500 to 1,800 positions. Medtronic also announced that it is teaming up with Eli Lilly (LLY 34.55, -0.12) to market blood sugar management using insulin therapy.

On the other hand, AmerisourceBergen (ABC 36.00, +0.42) is trading with strength after it posted this morning better-than-expected earnings and raised its earnings outlook. The company also hiked its quarterly dividend by 20% and issued a 2-for-1 stock split.DJ30 +3.18 NASDAQ +8.83 SP500 +2.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/1.31 bln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/744 mln/1066

1:30 pm : According to reports, the Senate passed legislation to impose new restrictions on the credit card industry, making it harder for credit card issuers to raise rates on consumers. Shares of American Express (AXP 25.69, -0.44), Discover Financial Services (DFS 9.03, -0.19), and Capital One (COF 25.46, -0.60) remain in the red, but really haven't shown much reaction to the announcement.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow are testing their session highs. The Nasdaq has extended its gains to trade at its best level of the session. DJ30 +24.05 NASDAQ +11.19 SP500 +4.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1363/1.20 bln/1237 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1981/687 mln/990

1:00 pm : The tone in premarket trading had been upbeat, but dour housing starts and building permits data prompted participants to push back against stocks, causing the major indices to lose their direction. In turn, trading has been choppy and there haven't been any leaders for participants to follow.

Annualized housing starts and building permits fell to record lows in April, and missed economists' expectations, which caused some to second guess the idea that economic deterioration may be slowing. Though the data were certainly bleak, the drop in starts and permits suggests there will be less competition for existing homes currently on the market.

With layoffs still rising and lending conditions still stringent, the pace of clearing housing inventories has been slowed by foreclosures. Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD 24.82, -1.20) expressed concern about the accelerating rate of foreclosures, but still posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

Retailer TJX Companies (TJX 29.01, +1.07) also reported quarterly results this morning. Its earnings matched expectations, helping it win favor and drive retailers, as a group, to a 0.5% gain.

Financials, which underpinned the broader market's advance in the prior session, are failing to provide the same leadership this session. Financials are currently off 1.0%.

Consumer finance companies (-2.6%) are seeing some of the most pressure, though American Express (AXP 25.47, -0.66) announced plans to save some $800 million in costs this year.

Diversified banks are down 2.9% amid reports that several banks have expressed interest in quickly repaying borrowed TARP funds. However, CNBC reported that the Fed has indicated that no TARP repayment announcements are expected to be made until after June 8. CNBC also reported that the Treasury will announce a process for auctioning TARP warrants some time in the next several days. DJ30 +2.94 NASDAQ +2.09 SP500 +1.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/1.09 bln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1778/633 mln/1178

12:30 pm : The major indices are trading with modest gains, but financials, which climbed more than 7% Monday to lead the broader market to a 3% gain, are trading as laggards. Financials are currently down 0.1%.

Within the financial sector, diversified banks (-1.9%) and consumer finance companies (-1.9%) are trading with weakness. The downturn among consumer finance companies comes even though American Express (AXP 25.61, -0.52) announced plans to save some $800 million in costs this year. That announcement led several analysts to upwardly revise their estimates and targets for the company.DJ30 +27.79 NASDAQ +6.76 SP500 +4.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1287/980 mln/1274 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1934/572 mln/998

12:00 pm : Shares of retailers have shaken off early weakness to trade with a healthy 0.4% gain.

TJX Companies (TJX 29.13, +1.19) is currently providing the most leadership to retailers. The company reported in-line first quarter earnings results this morning, and issued a second quarter earnings forecast that allows for an upside surprise. The forecast is contingent upon certain same-store sales targets, though.

Meanwhile, Saks (SKS 5.09, +1.01) is soaring after reporting a loss that wasn't nearly as steep as what was expected.

Not all retailers are making headway, however. Apparel and accessories company American Apparel (APP 4.53, -0.94) is slumping after falling short of analysts' consensus earnings estimate and issuing a downside forecast.DJ30 +16.33 NASDAQ +2.03 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/898 mln/1319 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/525 mln/1090

11:30 am : A lack of leadership has the major indices trading in mixed fashion. Trading has been directionless since the opening bell.DJ30 +2.23 NASDAQ -1.36 SP500 +0.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1153/784 mln/1382 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1719/457 mln/1159

11:00 am : Stocks seem to still be looking for direction. After fumbling out of the gates, stocks turned lower, but then managed to move into higher ground where gains were extended upon taking out the prior session's highs. The recent upward move has stalled, though, and stocks are on the backslide once again.

Materials stocks and utilities stocks remain the best performing sectors this session. They are both up 1.2%.

Health care is currently trading with a 0.5% loss. It is the only sector currently in the red.

Financials, which led the prior session's bounce, are up 0.4%. Bank of America (BAC 11.96, +0.23) is a primary leader in the sector for the second straight session. DJ30 +9.40 NASDAQ +2.51 SP500 +2.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1143/660 mln/1312 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/386 mln/1102

10:35 am : The stock market has overcome an early loss to trade with a modest gain. Commodities are also garnering positive support.

Despite some choppy action in the first hour, crude oil futures prices are up and extending the prior session's bounce, which resulted in a six-month closing high. Crude contracts for June delivery are currently up 0.4% to $59.30 per barrel.

However, crude contracts for June delivery expire at the close of pit trading. The spread between the June contract and the July contract stands at -$0.43 per barrel.

Natural gas is trading lower, on the other hand. Contracts were recently quoted 2% lower at $4.05 each.

Gold prices are making a bit of a rebound after declining 1.0% in pit trading Monday. However, gold prices still have a way to go before making up the prior session's decline; gold was last quoted 0.3% higher at $924.80 per ounce.

Silver prices slipped approximately 1.2% Monday, but are up roughly 1.5% to $14.06 per ounce this session.DJ30 +16.17 NASDAQ +1.50 SP500 +3.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1066/492 mln/1331 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1697/296 mln/1074

10:00 am : Stocks have slipped farther into the red after some choppy trading in the first few minutes. Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only materials stocks (+0.3%) and utilities stocks (+0.8%) are trading with gains.

Retailers are encountering considerable selling pressure. The group is down 1.2% after spiking 4.5% in the prior session.

Home Depot (HD 24.41, -1.61) is a primary laggard among retailers, even though the company posted better-than-expected earnings results for the latest quarter. The pullback by the shares comes after the stock made a strong run in the prior session, which came amid anticipation of an upbeat quarterly report.

Early movers: Trading up -- FONR +121.7%, BEAT +19.8%, ONTY +19.7%, THC +13.8%, KLIC +12.7%, NVAX +12%, SKS +9.8%, SBLK +9.8%, OGXI +9.5%, GIL +8.2%, EGLE +7.8%, GRS +7.7% Trading down -- SCR -16.7%, APP -16.6%, MXB -11.6%, PBH -9.7%, PSEC -8.1%, MI -8%, SNV -7.5%, JASO -7.4%, PVA -7.1%DJ30 -32.98 NASDAQ -9.86 SP500 -3.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 836/323 mln/1459 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/193 mln/1575

09:45 am : Despite being pressured in late premarket trading, stocks attempted to shrug off an initial selling effort and move into positive ground. However, stocks have since come under increased pressure, causing the major indices to trade in the red.

Overall action is a bit mixed, though. Four of the major sectors in the S&P 500 are showing losses.

Financials are seeing the most selling pressure as the sector slides to a 1.0% loss.DJ30 -12.19 NASDAQ -4.77 SP500 -1.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 939/203 mln/1264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/136 mln/1255

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Stock futures had appeared to be set for a modestly higher start to the session, but a batch of worse-than-expected housing start data and building permit data led to a downturn in premarket bias so that a flat-to-lower start for the session is now expected. With April housing starts and building permits falling below expectations to a record low, participants are back to questioning the health of the economy, and seemingly ignoring the notion that fewer housing starts and building permits ultimately means less competition for existing homes, which need to be cleared in order to improve home prices. Better-than-expected earnings and a reaffirmed outlook from Home Depot (HD) hasn't provided any support to premarket trading; the company's shares saw a strong run up in the prior session as participants anticipated strong results following a solid report from Lowe's (LOW). Financial stocks are under a bit of pressure amid news from The Wall Street Journal that commercial real estate could drive losses at small and medium-sized banks. Meanwhile, in order to help protect itself from further headwinds, American Express (AXP) will attempt to save $800 million in costs during the rest of 2009 through various measures.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. The DAX, up 1.3%, is currently sporting the best gains of the major European inidices. Deutsche Bank (DB) is building on the prior session's gains to trade as a primary leader in the German bourse. Banking giant HSBC (HBC) is a leading mover in Britain, where the FTSE is up just 0.1%. Metals and mining stocks of Anglo American (AAUK), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RTP) are also showing leadership. In France, the CAC is up 0.3% with help from financial outfits BNP Paribas, Axa (AXA), and Societe Generale, which are all building on recent gains. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed 2.5%, while Japan's Nikkei scored a 2.8% gain. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) made a strong advance ahead of its latest results, which were announced after the session closed. The company posted a $2.7 billion annual loss, according to Reuters, but it indicated that it expects to return to a profit. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng jumped 3.1% as HSBC showed leadership. The lender, along with Bank of East Asia, is on its way to becoming the first foreign bank to issue yuan bonds in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, energy stocks PetroChina (PTR) and CNOOC (CEO) soared as crude oil prices moved higher. Shares of CEO were recently upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed higher by a more modest 0.9%. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures continue to ease back in the wake of the latest housing starts and building permits data, and now suggest a flat-to-lower start is in order for the U.S. indices.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Housing starts during April came in at an annualized rate of 458,000, which is lower than the 520,000 that was expected, and down from 525,000 in March. Meanwhile, building permits for April reached a rate of 494,000, which is below the 530,000 that was expected, and down from 516,000 in March. Stock futures have pulled back in the wake of the data as worse-than-expected housing starts and building permits appear indicative of weak economic conditions. However, the silver lining in this scenario is that there is ultimately less competition for existing homes, which is essential in clearing the inventory glut and improving pricing. No other economic releases are scheduled for this morning, and Minneapolis Fed President Stern is the only economic speaker scheduled for today (1:15 PM ET).

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD) announced this morning first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share, which is $0.06 better than the consensus estimate of $0.29 per share. Home Depot also reaffirmed its sales forecast for fiscal 2009, seeing a 9% sales decline and earnings per share slipping 7%. Despite the first quarter upside surprise, shares of HD are indicated 1.5% lower at $25.63 per share in premarket trading. The pullback follows the prior session's strong gain, which was spurred by upbeat results from peer Lowe's (LOW) and a strong, positive bias in the broader market. Financial services giant and Dow component American Express (AXP) announced it will attempt to save $800 million in costs during the rest of 2009 by reducing staff, scaling investments, and slashing operational costs. A recent Reuters report also noted that Financial Times stated that American Express, along with Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), are expected to be among the first few companies allowed to return TARP funds. Participants await April housing start and building permit data, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Stock futures point to an upward start for the broader market.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50.

06:30 am : Nikkei...9290.29...+251.60...+2.80%. Hang Seng...17544.03...+521.10...+3.10%.

06:30 am : FTSE...4493.38...+46.90...+1.10%. DAX...4956.45...+104.70...+2.20%.

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