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 Post subject: May 15th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2009 6:27 am 
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Key WRB Price Action

1min Regular Session Chart - The 0916am est interval provided support for price reversals around 0943am and 1015am est. Later it became a nice profit target area for shorts that shorted between 1042am - 1145am est...after that it didn't have any impact on the supply/demand for the remainder of the trading day.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=189

My Trading Performance: +3.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Tumble At End Of Tough Week
Wall Street retreats as investors react to economic reports and GM's dealer closings.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 15, 2009: 5:49 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks fell Friday at the end of a down week on Wall Street, the first weekly decline in all three major indexes in 10 weeks, as investors reacted to economic news and word of General Motors' dealership closings.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 63 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 10 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 9 points or 0.5%.

"I think we needed a technical correction after the previous nine weeks," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus.

"We came pretty far pretty fast and this week has been about taking a breather," he said. "We may see a few more weeks of this, especially now that earnings are over, as we wait for the next catalyst."

Since hitting what many see as a bottom on March 9, stocks have been on a tear. The Dow and S&P 500 rose for eight of the nine previous weeks and the Nasdaq advanced for nine in a row.

But this week was different. Bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing have boosted equities, but worse-than-expected reports on retail sales, housing and employment this week have raised worries that the market has gotten ahead of itself.

Declines were broad based Friday, with 24 of 30 Dow components sliding, led by Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500).

Automakers: General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said it is notifying 1,100 U.S. dealers that their contracts will be ending. The company has implied it will eliminate up to 2,600 dealers, or 42% of the total, over the next year. GM shares lost 5%.

On Thursday, bankrupt automaker Chrysler informed 789 dealers, or roughly 25% of the total, that it was ending their contracts.

Economy: Friday brought reports on consumer inflation, manufacturing and consumer sentiment, among others.

The Consumer Price index (CPI), fell 0.7% in April versus a year ago, the largest annual drop since June 1955, the Labor Department reported. CPI was flat versus March, meeting forecasts. CPI fell 0.1% in the previous month.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% after climbing 0.2% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise 0.1%.

The Empire State index, a measure of manufacturing in the New York area, improved to negative 4.6 in May from a reading of negative 14.7 in April. Economists thought it would improve to negative 12.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 67.9 in May from 65.1 in April, versus forecasts for a rise to 67.

Company news: Six life insurers can now access the government's bailout money, Treasury said late Thursday. The companies are Allstate (ALL, Fortune 500), Ameriprise Financial (AMP, Fortune 500), Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG, Fortune 500), Lincoln National Corp. (LNC, Fortune 500), Principal Financial (PFG, Fortune 500) and Prudential Financial (PRU, Fortune 500).

JC Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) said Friday that first-quarter profit plunged 79% from a year earlier. However, sales excluding items topped analysts' forecasts. The retailer also forecast full-year earnings in a range that is short of analysts' estimates.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 1.48 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 2.12 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.13% from 3.10% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets rallied and European markets were mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery fell $2.28 to settle at $56.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $2.90 to settle at $931.30 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : Choppy trading in the early going gave way to broad-based selling, which resulted in the stock market's fourth decline this week. As a result, stocks logged a weekly loss of 5.0%, which is its worst in two months.

Stocks struggled to find clear direction in the first couple of hours of trading. Participants were generally uninspired by news that the Euro zone economy contracted for its fourth consecutive quarter, and that the pace of that contraction has accelerated. Despite the dour batch of data, European indices closed in mixed fashion.

U.S. economic data also did little to motivate. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations by coming in flat, while Core CPI saw a stronger increase than had been expected by coming in with a 0.3% monthly increase. Industrial production for April fell 0.5%, which wasn't quite as bad as what had been expected, and capacity utilization came in at 69.1%, moderately better than what was expected.

Though the economic readings were generally in-line to slightly better than expected, participants are beginning to look for signs that economic conditions are actually tilting toward growth.

News that life insurers will have access to $22 billion in TARP funds initially won support for the group. However, concern that government funds may not win higher ratings for the companies along with the recognition that many companies continue struggling with macro headwinds undercut the group's strength. Life and health insurers finished 3.5% lower.

In a similar vein, rating agency Fitch placed several regional banks on Credit Watch Negative amid concern related to further credit deterioration. Regional banks finished the session 3.0% lower.

Weakness in insurers and banking issues dragged the financial sector to a 2.5% loss, which was worse than any other sector. With abounding weakness in the financial sector, the broader market was left without one of its primary leaders.

Sellers also hit energy stocks with stiff pressure. The sector shed 2.2%. Its weakness was exacerbated by a 3.6% drop in crude oil prices, which settled at $56.52 per barrel.

Utilities underperformed for the entire session, extending the prior session's weakness. Electric utilities fell 2.7% amid news that FirstEnergy (FE 36.47, -3.87) held a disappointing rate auction.

Retailers showed periodic strength in the wake of better-than-expected earnings from Nordstrom (JWN 22.58, +1.63) and JC Penney (JCP 26.51, -0.11), but the group still finished 0.7% lower.

Tech, which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, showed relative strength and actually spent the majority of the session as the only sector in the green. While several large-cap tech stocks held their gains, the broader tech sector was unable to fight off the negative bias and finished 0.1% lower.

The broader market did find some support late in the session, but only after it broke below its 20-day moving average to hit 880. Stocks recovered a bit from there, but still finished with broad-based losses as declining issues outnumbered advancers by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Options for May expired this session, but that didn't seem to lift trading volume above recent averages. Less than 1.5 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE big board this session. DJ30 -62.68 NASDAQ -9.07 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -1.0% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -10.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1052/2.11 bln/1626 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1088/1.48 bln/1922

3:30 pm : Energy commodities faced significant selling pressure this session. They traded down 3.7%.

After trading up to the unchanged level in the late morning, June crude oil contracts sold off for the rest of the session. The contracts fell 3.6% and closed at $56.52 per barrel, near the worst levels of the session.

June natural gas futures contracts also finished the session near its worst levels. The contracts traded lower and finished down 4.3% at $4.10 per contract.

Precious metals finished the session relatively unchanged.

June gold rose 0.3% to close at $931.30 per ounce. The contracts hit session highs near midday at $934.80.

After traded in the red all morning, July silver saw a spike just before 11:00 ET and hit a session high at $14.19 soon after. The gains were not sustained, though. The July silver futures closed at $14.01 per ounce, down 0.2%.DJ30 -59.73 NASDAQ -4.48 SP500 -8.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1072/1.71 bln/1607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1108/1.08 bln/1888

3:00 pm : A lack of positive catalysts left stocks to descend to fresh session lows, which resulted in the S&P 500 slipping below technical levels. The S&P 500 has found support at 880, though.

Still, the downturn has taken the tech sector into the red. Tech had been the only sector in the S&P 500 to recently trade with a gain, but the sector is now down 0.1%.DJ30 -92.23 NASDAQ -8.63 SP500 -12.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 990/1.56 bln/1682 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 982/985 mln/2005

2:30 pm : Weakness remains broad-based as stocks trade near their session lows.

Losses are the steepest among energy stocks (-2.5%), followed by utilities (-2.2%), and financials (-2.0%). Within the financial sector, regional banks (-3.1%) have come under increased pressure following news that Fitch has placed BB&T (BBT 21.43, -0.87), Discover Financial (DFS 8.59, -0.16), Fifth Third (FITB 7.10, -0.42), KeyCorp (KEY 5.84, -0.09), M&T Bank (MTB 46.41, -1.58), Popular (BPOP 2.81, -0.17), Regions Financial (RF 4.86, -0.12), SunTrust (STI 14.88, -0.15), and Wells Fargo (WFC 25.02, -0.67) on Rating Watch Negative. Fitch indicated that these institutions show an incrementally higher level of vulnerability to credit deterioration.

Tech stocks (+0.3%) continue to trade in the green, however. The strength of large-cap tech, in particular, has helped the Nasdaq 100 remain unchanged for the session. DJ30 -60.61 NASDAQ -3.83 SP500 -9.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1048/1.44 bln/1602 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1093/905 mln/1876

2:00 pm : Stocks are stuck in sideways trading after falling to session lows. Declining issues outnumber advancers by nearly 3-to-1 in the S&P 500, but the S&P 500 has managed to hold firm at the 883 level.DJ30 -53.92 NASDAQ -5.16 SP500 -9.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/1.34 bln/1621 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1077/837 mln/1884

1:30 pm : Shares of YRC Worldwide (YRCW 2.88, -0.39) are down markedly amid news that the company is looking for bailout funds from the Treasury. However, its appeal to the government hasn't necessarily been construed as a sign of weakness for the transportation industry as a whole. Rather, transportation stocks are showing relative strength as the Dow Jones Transportation Index climbs to a 0.4% gain.

The advance by transportation stocks comes largely as a result of a sharp pullback in crude oil prices. Crude oil futures are currently down 3.2% to $56.75 per barrel.DJ30 -49.14 NASDAQ -4.50 SP500 -9.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/1.26 bln/1575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1106/787 mln/1833

1:05 pm : A lack of leadership left stocks struggling to find direction in the early going, and allowed sellers to step in and send the stock market lower midsession.

Financials, which have been instrumental to the broader market's advances in recent months, failed to garner support and are now trading with a 2.5% loss.

Insurers looked as if they would provide a boon to the financial sector after the Treasury decided to make $22 billion in TARP funds available to a number of life insurance companies. However, the group is down 2% amid concerns that the funds may not help improve the ratings of some insurers.

While some firms have stepped out to confirm the Treasury's commitment, Ameriprise Financial (AMP 25.21, +0.15) has declined funding from the Treasury.

Though stocks are trading with weakness, they have found support at 883, which has been marked as a key support level. DJ30 -54.00 NASDAQ -3.46 SP500 -9.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1113/1.18 bln/1493 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/735 mln/1790

12:30 pm : Stocks are starting to recover after falling to fresh session lows. The S&P 500 fell all the way to 884 before finding support. Traders point to 883 as a key technical level, since it represents the 20-day moving average.DJ30 -34.49 NASDAQ +0.14 SP500 -6.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/1.08 bln/1424 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/670 mln/1675

12:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen to fresh session lows. The Nasdaq is also on the downturn, but it has yet to break below the lower levels it registered in the early going.

Tech is currently the only major sector sporting a gain as it trades just 0.1% higher.

Utilities continue to trade with the steepest losses. The S&P 500's utilities sector is down 2.9%, but the Dow Jones Utility Average is down 3.2%. FirstEnergy (FE 36.01, -4.33) is being hit particularly hard; the shares were downgraded by analysts at Barclays in the wake of a disappointing wholesale rate auction.DJ30 -37.27 NASDAQ -5.99 SP500 -8.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1126/979 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1203/614 mln/1690

11:30 am : Stocks are pulling back from earlier levels in what marks an extension of the session's choppy trade. This session's lack of direction is largely the result of a lack of leadership.

Financials, which have been the broader market's primary leader for months, are oscillating. The sector is currently down 1.0%.

Weakness in the financial sector is hinged to bank stocks and shares of insurers. Diversified banks are down 1.6%, and regional banks are down 2.0%. Shares of life and health insurers are down 0.9% after trading with gains earlier.

Initial strength among insurers was underpinned by news that the Treasury will offer $22 billion in TARP funds for certain life insurers. However, there has been some recent concern that the TARP funds may not help the ratings of certain companies.DJ30 +28.60 NASDAQ +7.73 SP500 -1.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/844 mln/1219 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/531 mln/1329

11:00 am : The three major indices are in positive ground, with the Nasdaq Composite sporting the best gains of the trio. The Nasdaq's advance comes amid continued strength in large-cap tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT 20.47, +0.41), Research In Motion (RIMM 73.52, +2.40), and Google (GOOG 392.70, +5.20).

Large-cap stocks also traded with strength in the prior session, helping the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts with a 1.5% gain. The S&P 500 climbed 1.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced roughly 0.6% Thursday.

Week-to-date, the Nasdaq is down 2.2%, while the S&P 500 has shed 3.7% and the Dow has slipped 2.3%.DJ30 +47.15 NASDAQ +12.34 SP500 +1.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1411/713 mln/1044 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/467 mln/1210

10:30 am : Stocks continue to trade in mixed fashion. Action among commodities is generally weak.

Crude oil prices are currently down 1.0% to $58.00 per barrel. Crude had been down in the prior session as well, but managed to recover and close the session with a gain. Still, crude oil prices are down roughly 1% week-to-date.

Meanwhile, natural gas is down 2.4% to $4.19 per contract.

The decline in energy prices has the energy sector trading 1.1% lower. Oil and gas explorers are down 2.2%, worse than any other industry group within the S&P 500's energy sector.

Precious metals are a bit mixed as gold prices advance a modest 0.1% to $929.60 per ounce. Still, that's helping to drive the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 91.31, +0.28) into positive territory.

Silver is down 0.6% to $13.95 per ounce.DJ30 +20.95 NASDAQ +8.97 SP500 -0.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/545 mln/1154 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1454/387 mln/1310

10:00 am : Stocks continue to look for direction in the early going. Action is largely mixed as the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are evenly split between positive and negative territory.

Materials stocks have moved ahead of the pack to sport the best gains of any sector. Materials stocks are currently up 0.9%, thanks to strength in Alcoa (AA 9.42, +0.68), which has recently spiked amid a surge in trading volume.

Utilities stocks continue to trade with the most weakness. The sector is now down 2.1% as electric utilities drop 2.3%.

Early movers: Trading up -- ADY +27.8%, FUQI +15.4%, EXEL +14.3%, ZLC +12.5%, CNO +12.4%, LVS +11.4%, HIG +11%, HGR +10%, LNC +9.9% Trading down -- FE -10.9%, CHE -8%, YRCW -6.7%, FIG -6.3%DJ30 +6.53 NASDAQ +4.04 SP500 -1.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1089/360 mln/1198 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1359/300 mln/1315

09:45 am : Dspite a downward bias in premarket trading, stocks started the session with a move into positive ground. However, sellers have re-emerged to challenge the ascent, making for mixed action.

Currently, utilities stocks are showing the sharpest losses as they continue to contend with selling pressure. Utilities are down 1.9% after falling 0.4% in the prior session. The utilities sector was the only sector to log a loss in the prior session.

Financials are also under pressure in the early going. The sector is down 1.0% amid weakness in asset management and consulting companies (-2.3%).

Materials stocks (+0.5%) and industrial stocks (+0.5%) are trading with gains.DJ30 +5.98 NASDAQ -4.81 SP500 -3.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 893/220 mln/1282 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1119/236 mln/1460

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. Following the prior session's bounce, stocks are under a bit of pressure in premarket trading. However, reports that the Treasury will make $22 billion in TARP funds available to several life insurers has provided support to the group. On a related note, transportation outfit YRCW (YRCW) is looking for bailout funds of its own. Earnings announcements continue to wind down, but Nordstrom (JWN) and JC Penney (JCP) announced better-than-expected results for the latest quarter. Fellow retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) incurred a worse loss than expected. In economic news, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in-line with expectations, but the Core CPI saw a stronger increase than had been expected. Just released, industrial production for April fell 0.5%, which isn't quite as bad as the 0.6% decline that was expected. Capacity utilization came in at 69.1%, better than the 68.8% that was expected. Investors keeping an eye on trading volume should note that options for May expire at the end of the session, which means trading volume will likely see an increase this session.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. According to reports, Gross Domestic Output for the euro zone dropped 2.5% in the first quarter, which means output has declined for four consecutive quarters and has accellerated from the 1.6% decline registered in the fourth quarter of 2008. The consensus called for a decline closer to 2.0%. France's economy shrank 1.2%, which is a bit less than economists had projected. Germany was a key area of weakness in the latest quarter; the Germany economy contracted by a record 3.8%, according to reports. Germany's DAX is currently trading 0.6% lower amid weakness in Allianz (AZ) and Deutsche Telekom. Deutsche Bank (DB) is providing some support, though. Meanwhile, France's CAC is off by 0.1% as France Telecom falters and financial outfits BNP Paribas and AXA (AXA) trade as laggards. Societe Generale is making gains, however. The FTSE is currently down 0.6%. Losses in the British index are being led by Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP PLC (BP). Banks are providing support, though, as Barclays (BCS) and Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) trade as leaders. Barclays is reportedly in talks to sell its asset management arm. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 2.3% and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.9%. Sony (SNE) surged after projecting a smaller-than-expected annual loss, while machinery makers were buoyed by news that Japan's core private sector machinery orders for March fell 1.3% month-over-month, which wasn't as bad as expected. Meanwhile, Mizuho Financial (MFG) rebounded amid reports that the company will raise capital by issuing common shares and preferred securities. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 1.5% higher, led by banking issues. HSBC (HBC) was among the advancers. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed just 0.2% higher. Drugmakers outperformed, but steel stocks were weak.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. Stock futures have improved a bit from earlier levels, but continue pointing toward a lower start for the session. In economic news, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat month-over-month, which is in-line with expectations following a 0.1% monthly decrease for March. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month to exceed the 0.1% increase that was forecast by economists. Core CPI for March had increased 0.2% month-over-month. Year-over-year, CPI slipped 0.7%, which is sharper than the 0.6% downturn that was widely expected. Meanwhile, core CPI increased 1.9% year-over-year. It was expected to increase 1.8% year-over-year. Separately, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May came in with a -4.55 reading, which is better than the -12.00 that was expected, and up from the -14.65 registered for April. April industrial production data and capacity utilization have yet to be released; they are due at 9:15 AM ET. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is due at 10:00 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50. Stock futures point to a lower start for the broader market, but shares of insurers are seeing strength after the Treasury decided to make $22 billion in TARP funds available to a number of life insurance companies, The Wall Street Journal reported. Hartford Financial (HIG) has approval for $3.4 billion, while Lincoln National (LNC) has approval for $2.5 billion. Prudential Financial (PRU), Principal Financial (PFG), and Allstate (ALL) will also receive aid, according to the article. A few companies recently announced their latest earnings results. Nordstrom (JWN) posted first quarter earnings of $0.31 per share, which is $0.05 better than the consensus of $0.26 per share. The company also raised its outlook for fiscal 2010, seeing earnings ranging from $1.25 to $1.50 per share, including tax items. The company had forecast earnings from $1.10 to $1.40 per share. Shares of JWN are up 2.2% to $21.40 per share ahead of the opening bell. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted a first quarter loss of $0.31 per share, which is $0.17 worse than the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.14 per share. ANF is down 7.3% to $25.25 per share in premarket action. JC Penney (JCP) announced it earned $0.11 per share during the first quarter. Analysts had expected $0.10 per share. JC Penny expects to incur a second quarter loss ranging from $0.25 to $0.15 per share, which is worse than the $0.09 per share loss that analysts have forecast. However, JC Penny expects earnings for fiscal 2010 to range from $0.50 to $0.65 per share, but that is still below the consensus estimate of $0.76 per share. Shares of JCP are down roughly 5% to $25.30 per share ahead of the opening bell.

06:26 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00.

06:26 am : Nikkei...9265.02...+171.30...+1.90%. Hang Seng...16790.70...+249.00...+1.50%.

06:26 am : FTSE...4375.65...+13.10...+0.30%. DAX...4749.10...+10.60...+0.20%.

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