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 Post subject: May 14th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2009 6:08 pm 
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The 1000am est interval was like a line drawn in the sand that dared the market to retrace below it. The market responded via respect and stayed above that key WRB price area.

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=188

My Trading Performance: +12.25 Emini ES points

Note: To view broker profit (loss) screen image...click here.

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Stocks Rally After Retreat
Investors look beyond weak economic reports and opt to scoop up shares hit in the recent selloff
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 14, 2009: 6:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, bouncing back after several down sessions as investors weighed some weaker-than-expected reports with growing economic optimism.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 46 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 9 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 25 points, or 1.5%.

The S&P and Nasdaq fell for three sessions in a row and the Dow fell for two of the last three sessions as investors stepped back after the earlier spring rally.

But on Thursday, investors used the recent selloff as an opportunity to dip back into stocks, particularly technology, telecom and consumer issues.

Bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing has fueled the recent rally, lifting all three major gauges by more than 30% over 9 weeks. But a few recent reports have raised worries that investors may have gotten ahead of themselves, including Wednesday's weak retail sales report and Thursday's surprise rise in jobless claims.

"The thinking today is that we have had a couple of bad numbers, but they are not enough to derail the perspective that conditions are not as bad as they have been and are getting better," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

"The question going forward will be whether these were random reports or an indication of a reversal," he said. "There will be other disappointing reports, but I think the trend is still toward improving data."

Government reports are due in the morning on consumer prices, manufacturing, capacity utilization and industrial production and consumer sentiment.

Company news: Chrysler said it wants to close 789 dealerships, or roughly 25% of those in business, according to a plan filed in bankruptcy court.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is expected to announce Friday that it will close 1,000 to 2,000 of its dealerships, according to reports.

GM said Thursday that it has agreed to accelerate payments to its parts suppliers, as it teeters closer to bankruptcy. The automaker has until the end of the month to gain enough concessions from its creditors and union to remain viable. However, GM is not expected to meet that deadline and the company's CEO has said that a bankruptcy is "probable."

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates on weaker revenue. The No. 1 retailer also forecast second-quarter earnings in a range that could surpass analysts' current forecasts. Shares fell 1.9%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by seven to three on volume of 1.52 billion shares. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners by two to one on volume of 2.23 billion shares.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week surged to 637,000 from 601,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported. The rise in jobless claims reflects the extensive layoffs in the auto industry after Chrysler filed for bankruptcy.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 610,000 new claims.

The Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 0.3% in April after falling 1.2% in March, according to a government report released Thursday. PPI was expected to rise 0.2%.

The so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in the month, as expected, after holding steady in the previous month.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.10%, down from 3.11% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 60 cents to settle at $58.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery climbed $2.50 to settle at $928.40 an ounce. To top of page

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Led by financials, stocks spent the majority of the session trading with impressive gains, but some late selling pressure challenged the broader market's advance and made for a choppy close.

Stocks struggled to find direction in the first few minutes of trading as participants assessed the implications of rising jobless claims. According to the latest data, continuing claims climbed more than expected to a record high of 6.56 million. Weekly initial claims also topped expectations by totaling 637,000.

With jobless claims mounting, many expect consumer spending to remain challenged. Such a notion was supported in the prior session when advance retail sales data for April showed an unexpected decline.

Shares of retailers fought to hold on to gains this session. They finished 0.3% higher after being up more than 2%. Wal-Mart (WMT 49.10, -0.93) slipped after posting in-line earnings, which were also on par with what the company had already forecast.

Financials provided leadership to the broader market, but only after recovering from a flurry of selling pressure in the early going. Financials were down 0.6% at their session low, but managed to close with a 4.0% gain.

Multiline (+9.3%) insurers led gains in the financial sector as they recovered from rating concerns in the prior session. Meanwhile, Moody's has put Bank of America's (BAC 11.31, +0.30) financial strength on review for possible upgrade.

Energy stocks also climbed back from an early loss. The sector had been down more than 1%, but closed with a 0.3% gain amid a rebound in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices were down in early pit trading after the IEA trimmed its demand forecast, but crude prices settled 1.0% higher at $58.62 per barrel.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only the utilities sector closed lower; it shed 0.4% amid weakness in electric utilities stocks (-0.8%).

Without any major companies reporting earnings results tomorrow, participants will be taking their cues from economic data. Due tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, April total CPI is expected to be flat, while Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1%. That ties in with the April PPI, which was released this morning. Total April PPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, while Core PPI increased 0.1% month-over-month.

Separately, capacity utilization and industrial production for April are due tomorrow at 9:15 AM ET. DJ30 +46.43 NASDAQ +25.02 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +1.9% SP400 +1.6% SP500 +9.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/2.55 bln/838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2172/1.52 bln/847

3:30 pm : A rebound in commodity prices has helped the CRB Commodity Index completely reverse its early decline to sport a 0.4% advance.

Crude oil prices were able to recover from negative territory to close 1.0% higher at $58.62 per barrel. The rebound came in the face of a lowered demand forecast from the IEA, which actually followed a similar announcement by OPEC yesterday.

Natural gas was unable to make its way into positive ground, though it did finish above its lows. Natural gas prices had been down approximately 4% amid bearish inventory data, but prices recovered to settle at $4.30 per contract, down 0.8%.

Precious metals garnered support after a sluggish start. Gold prices settled 0.3% higher at $928.40 per ounce, and silver settled fractionally higher at $14.04 per ounce.DJ30 +61.96 NASDAQ +29.89 SP500 +10.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1824/1.75 bln/807 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2170/1.07 bln/831

3:00 pm : The major indices trade near session highs, with nine of the ten sectors posting a gain.

Market breadth is positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by 3-to-1 on the NYSE and by 8-to-3 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 +78.86 NASDAQ +33.26 SP500 +12.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/1.57 bln/709 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2294/951 mln/702

2:30 pm : Multiline insurers are up almost 10% as they snap back from the prior session's loss, which exceeded 9% after reports indicated that some insurers may still be downgraded even if they receive TARP funds from the government.

Hartford Financial (HIG 15.00, +2.44) and AIG (AIG 1.81, +0.21) are currently primary leaders among multiline insurers, and are helping support a 3.5% gain for the broader financial sector. According to The Wall Street Journal, AIG plans to divest its Taiwanese operation, Nan Shan Life. DJ30 +71.76 NASDAQ +31.47 SP500 +11.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/1.44 bln/719 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/880 mln/725

2:00 pm : After retracing earlier gains, stocks are back on the mend. However, the Dow and S&P 500 remain off of their session highs.

Meanwhile, strength among small-cap stocks has carried the Russell 2000 to its best level of the session. The small-cap index is now up 2.4%. Its ascent comes with help from Builders FirstSource (BLDR 3.57, +1.32), which is up nearly 60% after snapping back from a near 30% slide in the prior session. DJ30 +50.81 NASDAQ +27.77 SP500 +8.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1802/1.34 bln/781 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2162/819 mln/790

1:30 pm : The major indices are paring some of their gains after putting together a healthy advance. The downward move comes largely as a result of a pullback in financial stocks.

Though financial stocks still trade with an enviable gain of 2.7%, they are well off their session high, which came with a gain of more than 4%. DJ30 +40.78 NASDAQ +24.07 SP500 +7.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1731/1.23 bln/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2048/758 mln/892

1:05 pm : Stocks stumbled in the first few minutes of trading, but they have since regained their footing to march higher in broad-based fashion.

Financials are providing leadership to the stock market's advance; financials are currently up 3.2%, more than any other sector. That has supported a bid for the broader market. As such, nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in the green; utilities (-0.7%) make up the only sector to trade with a loss.

Even energy stocks have reversed an earlier loss of more than 1% to trade with a 0.2% gain in the face of lower crude oil prices and a relatively bearish outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Crude prices are currently down 0.7% to $57.60 per barrel after being down more than 1% after the IEA trimmed its 2009 global demand forecast by 200,000 barrels per day, and stated a recovery in demand is still months away. However, the IEA indicated that global oil consumption may be nearing its trough.

In earnings news, Kohl's (KSS 42.52, +0.57) posted better-than-expected first quarter earnings and in-line guidance for the second quarter. Kohl's also raised its outlook for fiscal 2010, but the company's forecast still falls short of the consensus.

Meanwhile, retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 49.01, -1.02) is trading lower, despite in-line quarterly earnings and in-line outlook. Wal-Mart's results were largely expected, though.

Retailers (+1.8%) are putting together strong gains despite concerns that elevated jobless claims represent a serious impediment to consumer spending and economic growth. According to the latest report, 637,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ending May 9. That topped the 610,000 initial claims that were expected.

What's more, continuing claims climbed to a record high 6.56 million, topping the consensus estimate of 6.40 million continuing claims.

In other economic news, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April increased 0.3% month-over-month, but declined 3.7% year-over-year. Core PPI increased 0.1% month-over-month, and increased 3.4% year-over-year. The changes were in-line with expectations and have had little impact on trading this session. DJ30 +54.56 NASDAQ +26.32 SP500 +9.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1773/1.11 bln/809 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2129/669 mln/747

12:30 pm : After pausing momentarily, stocks have gone back on the offensive to reach new session highs.

The advance has taken the energy sector into the green, though energy stocks had been trading as laggards earlier. Energy stocks were down as much as 1.3% at their session low; they are now up 0.5%.

Part of energy's advance is owed to a rebound in crude oil prices. Crude prices were down more than 1%, but recently made their way back to the neutral line. Crude oil prices are currently down 0.4% to $57.80 per barrel.DJ30 +65.71 NASDAQ +27.75 SP500 +10.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/1.00 bln/808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/600 mln/761

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 has eased off of its session high, but continues to sport a healthy gain. However, the S&P 500 is still down 4.1% week-to-date.

This session's advance has been largely broad-based as advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Large-cap tech stocks are enjoying outsized gains, as indicated by the Nasdaq 100, which is up 1.6%. Apple (AAPL 122.30, +2.81) is a primary leader in the Nasdaq 100; the company is putting together its best single-session advance by percent in more than one week.DJ30 +46.51 NASDAQ +22.99 SP500 +7.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/887 mln/895 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1968/534 mln/838

11:30 am : Stocks recently climbed to fresh session highs. Eight of the 10 major sectors are in the green with financials sporting the best gains; financials are up 2.8% after stumbling a bit in the early going.DJ30 +47.07 NASDAQ +22.64 SP500 +8.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/746 mln/894 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1861/452 mln/910

11:00 am : News flow is relatively slow and stocks are trading without clear direction. Still, the major indices remain in positive territory.

Energy stocks and utilities stocks are lagging the broader market. They are trading with respective losses of 0.5% and 1.1%.

Energy's weakness is largely underpinned by a drop in crude oil prices. Oil was last quoted at $57.20 per barrel, down 1.4%. That, along with a reduced demand forecast from the IEA, has oil and gas exploration companies trading with a 0.9% loss.

Among utilities stocks, electric utilities giants are trading as laggards. Duke Energy (DUK 13.70, -0.12), American Electric (AEP 25.54, -0.49), and Dominion Resources (D 30.84, -0.46) are leading losses in the sector.DJ30 +34.25 NASDAQ +17.55 SP500 +5.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/611 mln/982 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1539/366 mln/1188

10:30 am : Stocks have bounced back from an early bout of weakness to trade with healthy gains. Commodities, however, are under pressure as the CRB Commodity Index slides 0.4%.

Oil prices are currently down 1.1% to $57.40 per barrel. The downward move comes after the International Energy Agency stated that global oil consumption may be nearing its trough, but a recovery in demand is still months away. The IEA trimmed its 2009 global demand forecast by 200,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down a sharp 3.9% to $4.16 per contract after the latest weekly inventory data showed a net increase in storage levels.

Precious metals are trading with moderate weakness. Gold was recently quoted fractionally lower at $925.50 per ounce, while silver was quoted 0.6% lower at $14.02 per ounce.

The Baltic Dry Index advanced 4.3% as each of its subindices made gains. The Panamax Index made the strongest move by climbing 6.1%.DJ30 +41.25 NASDAQ +17.31 SP500 +5.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/460 mln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/283 mln/1130

10:00 am : Stocks have pulled back after getting off to a solid start. The overall tone is now a bit mixed.

Financial stocks had been showing some of the best initial gains by climbing 1.2% in the first few minutes of trading, but the sector is now trading with a mroe modest 0.3% gain. It was down 0.3% recently.

Regional banks (-1.6%) and consumer finance stocks (-1.5%) are the worst performing industry groups within the financial sector. Specialized finance (+2.5%) is showing strength, though.

Early movers: Trading up - WH +17%, RMBS +11%, GIL +10.1%, CNO +8.8%, AMKR +7.5%, SWHC +7.3%, MED +7.2% Trading down -- GASS -19.1%, CIG -18.9%, BEXP -15.5%, FCE.A -14.3%, ANW -12.9%, ENS -11.3%, CVLT -11%DJ30 +12.82 NASDAQ +9.28 SP500 +1.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1341/186 mln/855 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1499/131 mln/1050

09:45 am : Despite a tepid tone ahead of the opening bell, stocks have managed to make solid gains in the first few minutes of trading as participants shrug off a disappointing batch of jobless claims data. Key technical levels were also held in premarket trading, providing additional support to this morning's upward move.

Gains are generally broad-based this morning, which contrasts the prior session when weakness was widespread. Currently, only energy stocks (-0.7%), telecom stocks (-0.4%), and materials stocks (-0.1%) are in the red.

Financials, currently up 1.2%, are sporting the best gains of any major sector. However, tech isn't far behind; the tech sector is up 1.0%.DJ30 +29.23 NASDAQ +12.68 SP500 +4.09

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. The S&P 500 has finished lower in each of the past three sessions, but stock futures suggest a flat start is in order for Thursday. The tepid tone comes in the wake of disappointing jobless claims data and an in-line April PPI reading. In corporate news, retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) posted in-line earnings results for its first quarter, and guided in-line for the second quarter.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.30. Major foreign markets are generally trading with weakness, though Britain's FTSE has managed to reverse losses to sport a 0.2% gain. The FTSE is finding most of its support is coming from financial firms; Standard Chartered, Barclays (BCS), and HSBC (HBC) are primary leaders. Barclays and HSBC are both party to a lawsuit against U.S. bond insurer MBIA (MBI). Meanwhile, the CAC is off by 0.5%. Total (TOT) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) are currently trading as primary laggards in the French index. In Germany, the DAX is also down 0.5% as its declining issues outnumber its advancers by 2-to-1. Allianz (AZ),and Daimler (DAI) and Volkswagen (VOW) are among the session's primary laggards. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 2.9% lower, and Japan's Nikkei shed 2.6%. Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy, profit concerns, and a firmer yen weighed on action. News that U.S. retail sales dropped unexpectedly in April exacerbated selling in the U.S. Wednesday, which helped set a weaker tone for overseas trading Thursday. In corporate news, Sony (SNE) tumbled after reporting its second straight annual loss. Nikon sank after forecasting an annual operating loss of its own. Panasonic (PC) also dropped after reports indicated the company was likely to post a hefty net loss this year. Toyota Motor (TM) was also a laggard amid a rising yen. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 3.0%, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.9%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Stock futures pulled back in the wake of the latest economic release, but are now recovering a bit. Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 totaled 637,000, which exceeded the 610,000 initial claims that were expected. Initial claims for the prior week were revised modestly higher to 605,000. Continuing claims climbed to 6.56 million, which is greater than the consensus estimate of 6.40 million continuing claims. The latest level of continuing claims marks a record high, which marks a serious impediment to consumer spending and economic growth. Meanwhile, last week's continuing claims reading was revised modestly higher to 6.36 million. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April increased 0.3% month-over-month, but declined 3.7% year-over-year. That was essentially in step with expectations since the consensus called for a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year decline. Core PPI increased 0.1% month-over-month, and increased 3.4% year-over-year. Core PPI was spot on with expectations.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stock futures aren't indicating much direction this morning as participants await the latest initial jobless claims data and April PPI, which are both due at the bottom of the hour. However, there has been a bit of earnings news this morning: retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) announced first quarter earnings of $0.77 per share, which is in-line with what the company had already forecast, and in-line with analysts' consensus earnings estimate. For the second quarter, Wal-Mart expects earnings to range from $0.83 to $0.88 per share, which brackets the $0.85 per share that analysts are currently expecting. Shares of WMT are trading modestly lower at $49.80 per share in premarket action. Meanwhile, shares of Kohl's (KSS) are up 2.5% to $43.00 per share in premarket trading following news that the company generated earnings of $0.45 per share during the first quarter, besting the consensus estimate of $0.43 per share. Kohl's expects second quarter earnings to range from $0.56 to $0.64 per share, which brackets the $0.61 per share consensus. Kohl's updated its outlook for fiscal 2010, which now calls for earnings that range from $2.19 to $2.42 per share. That is up from the prior forecast of $2.00 to $2.30 per share, but still short of the $2.53 per share that analysts currently expect for 2010.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30.

06:20 am : Nikkei...9093.73...-246.80...-2.60%. Hang Seng...16541.69...-517.90...-3.00%.

06:20 am : FTSE...4337.39...+6.00...+0.10%. DAX...4708.15...-19.50...-0.40%.

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