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 Post subject: May 13th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 5:20 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=187

My Trading Performance: +2.75 Emini ES points

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Key WRB Price Action

3min Regular Session Chart - The 1042am est interval kepted the market down the entire trading day...setting up several bearish price actions.

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

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Stocks Take A Thumping
Dow down 184 points and Nasdaq tumbles 3% as a weaker-than-expected retail sales report triggers an investor retreat.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 13, 2009: 4:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Wednesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling for a third straight session, after a weaker-than-expected retail sales report gave investors a reason to retreat.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 184 points, or 2.2%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 22 points, or 2.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) dropped 51 points, or 3%.

The worse-than-expected retail sales dragged on stocks, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. He said investors were also a little jittery about the bevy of banks rushing to raise capital to pay back the government bailout money they received.

"We were due for a pause here and with questions about the consumer and the banks, investors are finding an excuse to take some profits," he said.

Stocks seesawed Tuesday as investors showed caution after a roughly 2-month rally that propelled all the major stock gauges by at least 30%. That hesitation remained in place Wednesday.

Stocks have risen since early March on bets that the economy is close to turning a corner. But April reports on retail sales and the housing market threw such bets into question.

Economy: Retail sales fell 0.4% in April, according to a report from the Commerce Department released before the market open. Sales were expected to hold steady, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales fell a revised 1.3% in March.

Sales excluding volatile autos fell 0.5% in April, after dropping 1.2% in the previous month. Economists forecasts had called for a rise of 0.2%.

The number of U.S. households facing foreclosure jumped 32% in April versus a year ago, according to RealtyTrac. More than 342,000 homes received notices of default in the month, up 1% from March.

In other economic news, March business inventories fell 1% after slipping 1.4% in the previous month. Economists expected inventories to have dropped 1.1%.

Company news: AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares declined as the company's CEO discussed restructuring plans at a House hearing about how the company plans to pay back billions in government loans.

In other news, Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) was fined a record $1.45 billion by the European Union for allegedly anti competitive practices, a decision the chipmaker plans to appeal. Shares were little changed.

Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) posted a $9.9 billion quarterly loss after the market close Tuesday and also asked the government for another $6.1 billion in aid.

GM (GM, Fortune 500) shares started the day with another drop on concerns that it will have to file for bankruptcy, with the stock touching $1 per share, the lowest level since 1933. But the automaker rallied in the afternoon to finish 6 cents higher at $1.21.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners eight to one on volume of 1.7 billion shares. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners beat advancers by over five to one on volume of 2.37 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.10% from 3.17% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended mixed, while European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery fell 83 cents to settle at $58.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery climbed $2 to settle at $925.90 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

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4:25 pm : A broad-based selling effort weighed on stocks for the entire session and sent buyers recoiling as more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished lower, which resulted in the S&P 500's third consecutive loss.

A negative bias loomed in premarket trading as sellers prepared to continue their efforts amid weakness among major foreign indices. Their cause was strengthened by an unexpected decline in advance retail sales data for April, which was released ahead of the opening bell and supported the notion that consumers aren't completely ready to lead an economic turnaround.

According to the data, April total retail sales decreased 0.4%, and sales less autos decreased 0.5%. The April figures failed to meet the consensus forecast, which called for total sales to be flat and sales excluding autos to increase 0.2%. However, the decline wasn't as sharp as what was seen in March, when total sales slid 1.3%, and sales less autos declined 1.2%.

Shares of retailers slid 3.3%. Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 50.03, -0.59) also finished with a loss, but outperformed the broader market on a relative basis. The company is scheduled to announce its latest quarterly results tomorrow morning, ahead of the opening bell.

Financials dropped 5.2%, more than any other major sector, and extended their week-to-date decline to more than 13%. While financials logged the worst loss of any sector this session, sellers weren't entirely focused on financial stocks. Cyclical plays also saw outsized losses as materials stocks (-4.5%) and industrials stocks (-4.0%) sank. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks were also strongly out of favor as the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index sank -4.7% and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index made a 4.4% drop.

Large-cap tech had showed relative weakness in the early going, but managed to firm up a bit. Intel (INTC 15.13, -0.08) was a relative leader among its peers after stating that the second quarter is going better than the company had expected. That overshadowed news that Intel has been hit by the European Commission with a $1.45 billion fine for breaking antitrust laws. The fine represents nearly 14% of Intel's cash and short-term investments.

IBM (IBM 102.26, -1.68) attempted to drum up support by stating that earnings for fiscal 2009 will be least $9.20 per share, which is above the current consensus estimate of $9.11 per share.

Energy stocks finished 3.0% lower amid the broader market's downward bias and a downturn in crude oil prices. Crude oil contracts finished 1.4% lower at $58.02 per barrel after surrendering solid gains that were bolstered by bullish inventory data midmorning. Enthusiasm was partly capped by a lowered demand forecast from OPEC.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower amid relatively high trading volume (approx. 1.8 billion shares on NYSE). Even health care, which had spent most of the session as the only sector in positive territory, buckled in late trading. Health care closed 0.1% lower, though pharmaceuticals were able to finish 0.7% higher.

The latest business inventory data had no real impact on this session's trading. Nonetheless, March data showed a 1.0% decrease in inventories, which was largely in-line with expectations. Tomorrow's economic data carries a bit more weight and will be in closer focus; both the April Producer Price Index and weekly initial jobless claims data are due at 8:30 AM ET Thursday morning.DJ30 -184.22 NASDAQ -51.73 NQ100 -2.7% R2K -4.7% SP400 -4.4% SP500 -24.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 395/2.15 bln/2294 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 337/1.77 bln/2745

3:30 pm : News relating to crude oil was abundant this session. This morning, OPEC's forecast called for higher than previously expected demand declines. In addition, the Department of Energy released data which showed a draw in inventories. The news sent crude oil to session highs just shy of $60 per barrel. Still, the bullish piece of data was not enough to withstand selling pressure as June crude oil contracts closed at $58.02 per barrel, down 1.4%.

Natural gas futures finally ceased their momentum this session. The June futures contracts traded to session lows at $4.35 per contract, down 2.2%.

June gold futures contracts opened the pit session near session lows. Gold futures rose, however, in the face of the sell-off in the equity markets and finished with a modest gain of 0.2% at $925.90 per ounce.

The July silver contracts, which were up about 15% on the month, surrendered some recent gains this session. The July contracts hit session lows of $13.88 per ounce in the morning and closed at $14.02 per ounce, down 1.4%.DJ30 -180.40 NASDAQ -48.55 SP500 -23.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 446/1.94 bln/2252 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 341/1.23 bln/2724

3:00 pm : Losses remain broad-based as participants head into the final hour of trading, but the major indices are trending up from afternoon lows. Still, more than 90% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses.DJ30 -153.56 NASDAQ -40.84 SP500 -19.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 459/1.76 bln/2210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 351/1.09 bln/2713

2:30 pm : Oil prices have reversed early gains to trade lower. Crude prices had been up more than 1% earlier in the session, bolstered by bullish inventory data, but crude has since come under pressure and is now down 1.5% to $58 per barrel.

The turnaround in crude prices has compounded the selling effort against energy stocks. Energy stocks are down 3.1%, a bit above their session lows.

Within the energy sector, oil and gas drillers are down 5.5%, oil and gas exploration companies are down 4.9%, and oil and gas equipment companies are down 4.8%.DJ30 -187.81 NASDAQ -47.75 SP500 -23.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 404/1.65 bln/2248 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 314/1.02 bln/2734

2:00 pm : The broader market remains stuck in a funk with economic bellwether General Electric (GE 12.92, -0.76) leading losses in the S&P 500. GE's drop this session is its steepest single-session slide since an 8.4% decline in April.

GE's weakness is also weighing heavily on the industrial sector, which is down 4.1%. United Technologies (UTX 50.38, -2.07) and 3M (MMM 56.93, -2.60) are also trading as laggards in the industrial sector.DJ30 -159.21 NASDAQ -39.83 SP500 -20.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 419/1.50 bln/2211 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 325/935 mln/2699

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to slide, and health care has joined the broader market in negative ground so that all 10 major sectors are in the red. Health care stocks are now down 0.1%.DJ30 -200.87 NASDAQ -48.40 SP500 -24.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 384/1.37 bln/2228 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 305/861 mln/2714

1:00 pm : The major indices have been under pressure since the opening bell, resulting in steep, broad-based losses.

There isn't any single sector leading this session's decline, though materials stocks (-5.2%), industrial stocks (-4.2%), and financial stocks (-4.2%) are currently trading with the steepest losses.

Tech, which is currently the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, has been grappling with selling pressure, despite upbeat comments from Intel (INTC 15.23, +0.02) and IBM (IBM 102.20, -1.74).

Intel stated that the second quarter is going better than it had expected, which initially overshadowed news that the European Commission has levied a $1.45 billion fine on the company for breaking European antitrust laws. Intel has reversed its early gains, though.

Meanwhile, IBM recently stated it is confident that 2009 earnings will be least $9.20 per share, which is above the current consensus of $9.11 per share. The comments have helped relieve some of the selling pressure against large-cap tech, but the broader tech sector is still down 1.8%.

An unexpected decline in advance retail sales data for April has helped drive this session's selling effort. News that April total retail sales decreased 0.4%, and sales less autos decreased 0.5% when they were expected to be flat and up 0.2%, respectively, has helped support the notion that consumers may not be ready to lead an economic turnaround.

Shares of retailers are down 2.4% with Macy's (M 11.68, -0.67) trading as a laggard. The company reported a first quarter loss that wasn't quite as bad as analysts had expected, but reaffirmed an outlook for fiscal 2010 that failed to reach the consensus forecast.

While the broader market has fallen to fresh session lows and weakness remains widespread, health care has managed to trade with strength. The sector is currently up 0.3%, thanks to leadership from big pharma (+1.2%).DJ30 -176.66 NASDAQ -43.54 SP500 -22.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 427/1.22 bln/2157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 326/769 mln/2678

12:30 pm : Small- and mid-cap stocks are experiencing steeper losses than shares of companies with larger market capitalizations. As such, the Russell 2000 is down 3.4% and the S&P 400 is down 3.2%, while the S&P 500 has limited its losses to less than 2%.

Within the Russell 2000, declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 10-to-1. Corus Bankshares (CORS 0.72, -0.19) have shed one-fifth of their market cap this session. An article in The Wall Street Journal indicated that the prospect that the company's portfolio could be sold off in pieces has attracted several different buyers looking to scoop up assets for cheap.

Meanwhile, more than 95% of the companies in the S&P 400 are in the red.DJ30 -152.12 NASDAQ -35.13 SP500 -17.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 476/1.11 bln/2081 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 388/696 mln/2593

12:00 pm : Stocks are trading near fresh session lows amid widespread weakness.

Except for health care (+0.4%), every major sector in the S&P 500 is trading with a loss of at least 1%.

Industrials (-3.9%), financials (-3.4%), and materials (-3.1%) are seeing the steepest declines. However, materials stocks are still up 12.6% year-to-date (industrials are down 8.0% year-to-date, while financials are down 8.1% year-to-date).

Given the general weakness surrounding equities, Treasuries are garnering support. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up 20 ticks, which has pushed its yield down to 3.10%, a low for the week.DJ30 -164.39 NASDAQ -38.51 SP500 -18.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 453/995 mln/2076 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 394/622 mln/2580

11:30 am : Roughly 88% of the stocks listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses, and nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in the red.

Health care (+0.7%) remains the only sector to trade with a gain. This is the second straight session in which health care has outperformed the broader market.

Big pharma plays Pfizer (PFE 15.37, +0.44) and Merck (MRK 25.96, +0.98) are primary leaders in the health care sector. Fellow Dow component and drugmaker Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.20, +0.20) is also showing strength.DJ30 -153.24 NASDAQ -34.28 SP500 -17.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 467/885 mln/2036 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 411/556 mln/2550

11:00 am : Stocks had begun to pull up from their early morning lows, but sellers recently redoubled their efforts to send shares on the retreat.

Participants are making a considerable push against large-cap tech stocks for the second straight session. That has the Nasdaq Composite trading near session lows and lagging its counterparts. During the course of the past two sessions, the Nasdaq Composite has lost 2.8%, while the S&P 500 has lost 1.9% and the Dow has lost 1.1%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100, which is heavily weighted with large-cap tech holdings, has shed 3.3% during the same time span.

Shares of large-cap chip maker Intel (INTC 15.16, -0.05) have also fallen out of favor, despite trading with strength in the early going. Investors initially ignored news that the company has been hit by the European Commission with a $1.45 billion fine for violating antitrust laws, and instead reacted positively to news that the second quarter has been going better than the company had expected. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 2.5%.DJ30 -155.95 NASDAQ -35.11 SP500 -16.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 449/736 mln/2024 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 393/473 mln/2531

10:30 am : Crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8 showed a draw of 4.6 million barrels. A build of 1 million barrels had been expected so crude prices are jumping. Crude was last quoted 1.4% higher at $59.70 per barrel.

Prior to the inventory release, OPEC indicated that it expects oil demand to fall by 1.57 million barrels per day, and that oil prices have climbed above $50 per barrel more as a result of sentiment than fundamentals.

The upturn in crude oil prices has helped the energy sector trim its losses. Energy stocks were down more than 2% ahead of the inventory announcement, but are now down 1.2%.

Natural gas prices aren't able to share in crude's buying, however. Natural gas was recently quoted 0.7% lower at $4.42 per contract.

Gold is building on the prior session's advance by turning 0.1% higher to trade hands at $924.80 per ounce. However, silver is handing back some of the prior session's gains; it is down 0.8% to $14.10 per ounce.

Overall weakness among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index trading 0.6% lower.DJ30 -109.83 NASDAQ -25.06 SP500 -11.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 461/575 mln/1946 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/383 mln/2431

10:00 am : Stocks continue to trade with widespread weakness, though the major indices have managed to pull up a bit from their early morning lows.

Business inventories for March decreased 1.0%, which is on par with the 1.1% decline that was widely forecast, and not as bad as the 1.4% decrease seen in February.

Weekly crude oil inventory data is due at the bottom of the hour. A build of roughly 1 million barrels is expected.

Early movers: Trading up -- FOE +14.2%, HELE +10.1%, FAZ +8.1%, ANN +7.7% Trading down -- MDCO -39.5%, SOLR -23.8%, KRG -23.8%, LIZ -18.4%, AIB -17.8%, MRGE -15.8%, PL -15.2%, CLF -14.4%, AEG -13%, MGM -12.8%, RBS -11.6%, ING -11.4%, IRE -11.3%, PSUN -11.2%, HOV -11.1%, APP -10.9%, SRZ -10.8%, ODP -10.6%, HTE -10.3%DJ30 -134.46 NASDAQ -23.87 SP500 -14.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 434/332 mln/1874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 348/261 mln/2473

09:45 am : Stocks are down markedly in the early going amid a nearly indiscriminate selling effort; of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, nine are trading with losses.

Health care is the only sector to garner support. The sector started the session in negative territory, but has managed to climb to a 0.5% gain amid strength in pharmaceutical stocks (+1.2%).

Weakness is most pronounced in the financial sector (-3.4%) and industrial sector (-3.6%). Consumer discretionary stocks (-3.1%) are also under considerable pressure as retailers (-3.0%) fall out of favor in the wake of some disappointing April retail sales data, which seemed to suggest that consumers continue to grapple with stiff headwinds. DJ30 -154.83 NASDAQ -26.19 SP500 -17.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 369/220 mln/1838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 304/186 mln/2473

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Sellers are pressuring stocks ahead of the opening bell. The downward bias comes as an extension of profit-taking, which began Monday after market participants had watched stocks string together a series of heady gains in preceding weeks. Disappointing advance retail sales data for April has only supported this morning's selling effort, and considerable weakness in European bourses, which follows more dour economic data, has only exacerbated the negative bias. There haven't been any market-moving earnings announcements released this morning, though Intel (INTC) did indicate that the second quarter is going better than it had expected. That has provided support for the stock in premarket trading, overshadowing news that the European Commission has levied a $1.45 billion fine on the company for breaking European antitrust laws. Separately, Treasury Secretary Geithner is currently giving a speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America, during which he stated that the there are plans to reopen the application window for banks with total assets under $500 million under the Capital Purchase Program. Geithner also indicated the financial system is starting to heal. Business inventory data for March is due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30. European stocks are down after reports indicated that the collective body of European nations that use the euro currency saw March industrial output shrink 2% month-over-month. March's decline wasn't as severe as February's 2.5% drop, but it was worse than the 1% decline that reports indicated was widely expected. Meanwhile, separate reports indicate Bank of England indicated that the U.K. economy has a 50% chance of returning to growth by the mid-2010, but the prospects for economic recovery are weaker than the central bank had predicted three months earlier. Currently, Britain's FTSE is off by 1.9% as HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) weigh on the action. Financial shares are also dragging France's CAC lower; the CAC is down 1.9% as BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, AXA (AXA), and Credit Agricole lead losses. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 2.5%. Allianz (AZ) is trading as a primary laggard after the company reported a drop in first-quarter profits. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.4% higher, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.5%. However, Hitachi (HIT) plunged after it delivered a bleak forecast. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.6% after a volatile session. HSBC and China Construction Bank closed lower. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite advanced 1.7% following news indicating that retail sales climbed, which overshadowed word that April industrial production grew less than economists had estimated.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00. According to advance retail sales data, April total retail sales decreased 0.4%, and decreased 0.5% when excluding autos. The April figures failed to meet economists' expectations; the consensus forecast called for total sales to be flat and sales excluding autos to increase 0.2%. Still, while sales turned lower, their decline isn't as sharp as what was seen in March, when total sales slid 1.3%, and sales less autos declined 1.2%. Shares of retailers have come under a bit of pressure in the wake of the data. Macy's (M) is down 2% to $12.10 per share, even though it reported a first quarter loss that wasn't quite as bad as analysts had expected. Macy's announced this morning it lost an adjusted $0.16 per share for its latest quarter. It was expected to lose $0.20 per share. Macy's reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2010, which projects earnings from $0.40 to $0.55 per share. The consensus calls for $0.64 per share, currently. Meanwhile, American Apparel (APP) announced in a regulatory filing that it expects net sales to increase during the first quarter of 2009, but a net loss for the first quarter is still expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Stocks are contending with considerable selling pressure in premarket action. However, large-cap tech outfit Intel (INTC) is up 1.8% to $15.48 per share ahead of the opening bell after indicating that the second quarter is going better than it had expected. On a negative note, the company has been ordered by the European Commission to pay a record fine of $1.45 billion for breaking European antitrust laws. Applied Materials (AMAT) is down 5% to $10.90 per share in premarket trading. The company reported a second quarter loss of $0.10 per share, which was in-line with the consensus estimate. Advance retail sales data for April is due at the bottom of the hour (8:30 AM ET).

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

06:27 am : Nikkei...9340.49...+41.90...+0.50%. Hang Seng...17059.62...-94.00...-0.60%.

06:27 am : FTSE...4414.13...-11.40...-0.30%. DAX...4849.92...-4.20...-0.10%.

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