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 Post subject: May 11th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 6:35 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=185

My Trading Performance: +7.50 Emini ES points

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Key WRB Price Action

1min Regular Session Chart - The opening gap down from yesterday's close had helped set the tone as a resistance area. Resulting in a low volatility range day. Yet, the closing interval for Emini ES @ 0951am est confirmed a bullish reversal. In addition, with the price action of it's prior key intervals it became a support area for the price action around 1306pm est.

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

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Wall Street's Rally Hits A Wall
Stocks fall as investors take a step back from the two-month rally. Dow posts its biggest selloff in 3 weeks.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 11, 2009: 6:08 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks stumbled Monday as investors took a step back after propelling the major stock gauges by more than 30% each in just two months.

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the corresponding yields, as investors pulled money out of stocks and put it into the safer-haven bonds.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 156 points, or 1.8%. It was the Dow's biggest one-day selloff in three weeks.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 20 points, or 2.1%. Both the Dow and S&P 500 ended the previous session at four-month highs.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 8 points or 0.5%.

Stocks have been rallying since hitting multi-year lows in early March. The Dow and S&P 500 have risen for eight of the past nine weeks; the Nasdaq has risen for 9 in a row. In that time the Dow gained 31% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 37%.

Gains have been predicated on bets that the financial sector and economy are close to stabilizing. But with little economic news to focus on Monday, investors opted to back off.

After such a big run, stocks are probably going to be in a consolidation phase for the next couple of months, said Dan Genter, president and CEO at RNC Genter Capital Management.

"We're starting to see visibility of earnings going into the fourth quarter of the year and that's helped the market get back to more reasonable valuations," Genter said.

"But we're probably going to be lacking for a significant amount of good news to push us higher in the short term," he said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking Monday night at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Financial Markets Conference on the results of the stress tests. His comments may influence markets in the early going Tuesday.

The March trade gap from the Census Bureau is due Tuesday morning, along with the National Association of Realtors' report on first-quarter median home prices.

Financials: Bank shares slipped, with the KBW Bank (BKX) sector index losing 7.1%.

Last week, the government revealed that 10 of the 19 banks that had been part of the stress tests would need to raise a collective $75 billion to be strong enough to withstand a potentially deeper recession.

Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), two of the 10 banks needing capital, sold billions in stock just one day after the Thursday stress test announcements. Bank of America also registered Friday to sell 1.25 billion shares, which the company said will yield around $11 billion.

On Monday, U.S. Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500), Capital One Financial (COF, Fortune 500), BB&T (BBT, Fortune 500) and KeyCorp (KEY, Fortune 500) all announced plans to issue stock, with the intention of paying back the money their received under the government's bank bailout plan.

KeyCorp was one of the 10 banks that was told to raise more capital as a result of the stress tests. The other 3 were not.

In other banking news, troubled insurer American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) is selling its Japanese headquarters to Nippon Life Insurance for $1.2 billion, in its latest undertaking to pay back a massive government loan. AIG shares fell 5.5%.

Company news: General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) shares slumped 10% after CEO Fritz Henderson repeated earlier comments that a bankruptcy filing is "probable." The government has given the company until the end of the month to reach deals with its creditors, labor union and dealerships to cut costs. If it fails to do so, GM will be placed into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, like Chrysler.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500), considered to be the healthiest of the big American automakers, has not taken government money and is not facing a bankruptcy filing.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners seven to three on volume of 1.49 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers four to three on volume of 2.53 billion shares.

Washington: In other news, President Obama said Monday that he has secured the commitment of a number of industry groups to cut health care costs by $2 trillion over the next decade.

And the administration's top antitrust official said Obama will take a more aggressive approach to cracking down on monopolies than did his predecessor.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.17% from 3.28% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates continued to fall. The three-month Libor rate fell to an all-time low of 0.92% from 0.94% Friday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate held steady at 0.23%. Libor is a bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, most Asian markets ended lower. European markets were lower in afternoon trading.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery fell 13 cents to settle at $58.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $1.40 to settle at $913.50 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 4-to-1 in the S&P 500 as profit-takers pressured stocks for the entire session. Financials felt the brunt of the selling effort, but strength in large-cap tech helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

There weren't any major earnings announcements or economic reports to act as positive catalysts for the stock market Monday. The dearth of data seemed to encourage a round of profit taking by participants who had watched stocks climb nearly 6% last week.

As has been the recent trend, financials were the best performers last week, which made them an easy target for sellers looking to lock in gains. In turn, the financial sector shed 6.8%, cutting into last week's 23% gain.

Diversified banks slipped 6.7% and regional banks dropped 8.5% after several companies announced plans to raise capital.

In a common equity offering, Wells Fargo (WFC 26.53, -1.65) announced it raised $8.6 billion, which is more than it originally set out to raise. The bank was told by regulators last week that it needs to come up with $13.7 billion in capital. Wells Fargo indicated future earnings will help plug the company's capital shortfall.

Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC 12.94, -1.23) was told last week that it needs more Tier 1 capital, but the company didn't offer any immediate plans to satisfy the measure during a conference call today.

Despite the weakness in bank stocks, multiline insurers (-7.5%) and life and health insurers (-10.5%) saw some of the steepest losses. Their weakness comes as debate over health care reform is set to intensify during coming days. The threat of reform also weighed on managed health care providers, which finished 4.7% lower.

Sellers intensified their efforts against the financial sector into the close, which exacerbated weakness in the broader market and caused the S&P 500 to finish near session lows.

The Nasdaq was able to limit its losses, thanks to the relative strength of large-cap tech stocks. Large-cap tech rebounded from hefty losses in the early going as participants considered the early gap down to be an opportunity to rotate into the sector, which didn't see the trend chasing that financials saw the week before.

Despite the strength of large-cap tech, the broader tech sector finished just above the unchanged mark.

Telecom was the only sector to log a respectable gain, thanks to leadership from AT&T (T 25.36, +0.11), which will pay Verizon (VZ 29.82, -0.03) $2.35 billion for certain wireless assets. Meanwhile, AT&T has also agreed to sell certain wireless assets to Verizon for $240 million.

With equities under pressure, Treasuries were able to snap back after contending with weakness last week. The benchmark 10-year Note regained a full point, which lowered its yield to 3.17%.

There are only a few earnings announcements scheduled for Tuesday morning, none of which are expected to act as catalysts for the broader market. In terms of tomorrow's economic data, the March trade balance (8:30 a.m. ET) is expected to show continued contraction as countries contend with ongoing economic headwinds. The Treasury's budget statement for April is expected to be released later (2:00 p.m. ET). DJ30 -155.88 NASDAQ -7.76 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -1.9% SP400 -2.3% SP500 -19.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1087/2.49 bln/1637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 862/1.49 bln/2179

3:30 pm : Both energy commodities and precious metals were able to recoup some of their early losses.

Crude oil contracts opened the session significantly lower. The contracts recovered the majority of losses, though, unlike in the equity markets, where losses have accelerated. June crude oil closed at $58.53 per barrel, fractionally lower.

Natural gas contracts traded in negative territory for most of the session, much like crude oil. The contracts closed down 0.5%.

Gold futures traded between $908.80 and $918.40 per ounce before closing at $913.50 per ounce, down 0.15%.

July silver futures contracts opened at the lows of the session at $13.68 per ounce. The contracts did rally from these lows, however, and closed at $13.90 per ounce, down less than 1%. DJ30 -140.50 NASDAQ -2.09 SP500 -17.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1116/2.06 bln/1596 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 909/1.06 bln/2111

3:00 pm : Retail stocks, down 0.5%, are working toward their fourth consecutive loss. The sector had made strong gains in recent weeks as participants looked to move into early cycle stocks that will gain from a turnaround in economic conditions.

Retail stocks will likely come into closer focus Wednesday when April retail sales are reported.DJ30 -114.86 NASDAQ +3.73 SP500 -13.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/1.91 bln/1560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 939/982 mln/2077

2:30 pm : The Dow and the S&P 500 turned lower after coming within close range of their session highs at the top of the hour. The Nasdaq has also turned lower, but only after climbing to its best level of the session, where it traded with a 0.5% gain.

Financials remain the worst performing sector of the session. Financials are currently down 5.1%, which is just above the sector's session lows.

Conversely, technology remains in the best shape this session. The tech sector is up 0.8%, down a bit from its session high.DJ30 -114.78 NASDAQ +3.32 SP500 -14.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1107/1.77 bln/1581 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 914/899 mln/2102

1:30 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 continue to trade with marked losses. Their weakness has been present since the start of the session.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is back at the unchanged mark. The Nasdaq actually fell to a sizable loss of 1.9% in the first few minutes of trading, but has since recovered, thanks to help from large-cap tech.DJ30 -116.53 NASDAQ +0.09 SP500 -14.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1069/1.51 bln/1601 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 858/759 mln/2133

1:05 pm : Profit-takers are locking in recent gains by dumping a broad range of stocks in the absence of any economic data or market-moving headlines. This session's selling effort has largely been focused on financial and energy stocks, but tech and telecom are showing relative strength.

The major indices encountered stiff selling pressure in the first few minutes of trading as market participants moved quickly to sell shares after watching the S&P 500 advance nearly 6% last week. Given the 23% advance by financials last week, the sector has caught the brunt of the selling effort. Financials are currently down 5.3% to a fresh session low.

Wells Fargo (WFC 27.09, -1.09) had been showing relative strength, but has since reversed course. The company announced it raised $8.6 billion in common equity this morning. That, along with future earnings, will help the company plug its capital shortfall, which regulators pegged at $13.7 billion last week. According to Financial Times, Wells Fargo will also begin repaying the government's TARP loan as soon as practical.

Bank of America (BAC 13.30, -0.87) stated during a conference call that it is not able to say when it will be able to pay back debt. The company noted that it did not pass the government's Tier 1 capital requirement, and that the decision regarding how much common equity will be raised will be made by November. Bank of America added that it is not interested in buying companies overseas amid its decision to divest its stake in China Construction Bank.

Meanwhile, US Bancorp (USB 19.17, -1.37) and Capital One (COF 27.78, -3.56) both announced plans to raise capital, even though regulators stated the pair has sufficient capital.

Energy stocks are also under pressure this session as a broad-based selling effort and lower energy prices combine to take the sector down 3.7%. Oil prices are currently down 1.6% to $57.70 per barrel.

Despite a considerable downward bias to this session's action, telecom has managed to muster a 0.2% gain. AT&T (T 25.29, +0.04) is a primary leader after announcing that it has agreed to pay Verizon (VZ 29.80, -0.05) $2.35 billion for certain wireless assets.

Tech stocks are up 0.2% and helping the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts. The bounce in tech comes after buyers rotate into the sector and pick up holdings that failed to participate in the stock market's gains during recent weeks.DJ30 -131.58 NASDAQ -5.84 SP500 -17.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/1.48 bln/1638 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 812/717 mln/2166

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with broad-based losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down roughly 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average is off by 3.3% and the Dow Jones Utility Average has lost 0.9%.

The Amex Airline Index is off by 2.1%.

Small- and mid-cap stocks are contending with considerable selling pressure. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index are both down 1.7%.DJ30 -112.01 NASDAQ -1.72 SP500 -14.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/1.30 bln/1582 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 821/639 mln/2144

12:00 pm : After paring losses, the major equity averages are back on the downturn. Declining issues in the Dow outnumber advancers by 3-to-1. Meanwhile, decliners outnumber advancing issues in the S&P 500 by 4-to-1.

The broad-based weakness among stocks has supported a bid for Treasuries, which suffered last week. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up 24 ticks, which brings its yield down to 3.20%.DJ30 -129.59 NASDAQ -6.24 SP500 -15.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 966/1.19 bln/1664 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 783/584 mln/2161

11:30 am : Weakness remains widespread, but stocks have managed to work their way off of their morning lows. Telecom (+0.1%) and tech (+0.4%) are the only two sectors currently trading with gains.

Utilities stocks had been sporting gains in the early going, but the sector has since reversed course and is now trading with a 1.0% loss. Entergy (ETR 73.00, -0.95) is trading as a primary laggard in the utilities sector; it is undercutting the relative strength of Duke (DUK 14.24, +0.06) and Southern (SO 28.78, +0.02).DJ30 -110.16 NASDAQ -0.69 SP500 -13.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1002/1.04 bln/1591 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 778/525 mln/2142

11:00 am : Thanks to leadership from large-cap tech stocks like Oracle (ORCL 18.75, +0.43) and Intel (INTC 15.51, +0.22), the Nasdaq has turned upward to leave its counterparts behind. Though it is currently trading with a moderate loss, the Nasdaq was recently in positive territory.

The bounce in tech stocks (+0.4%) comes without any clear catalyst. However, this morning's gap down did provide buyers an opportunity to rotate back into the tech sector and pick up names that failed to participate in last week's advance -- the S&P 500 climbed almost 6% last week, but tech dropped nearly 2% during the same period.

Nonetheless, the strength of tech stocks during prior months has helped carry the Nasdaq Composite to a year-to-date gain of 10.2%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%), which is heavily comprised of large-cap tech, is up 15.3% this year.DJ30 -107.45 NASDAQ -1.61 SP500 -13.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/866 mln/1609 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 723/446 mln/2150

10:30 am : Oil prices had been trading more than 2% lower prior earlier this morning in electronic trading. However, crude prices have recovered a bit following the opening of pit trading. Crude futures contracts are currently down 1.0% to $58.05 per barrel.

Meanwhile, natural gas contracts are down 1.6% to $4.24 each.

A confluence of lower energy prices and a negative bias in the stock market has energy stocks trading 3.1% lower. The decline has taken the energy sector back into the red for the year; energy stocks are now down 0.1% year-to-date.

Precious metals are trading moderately lower amid a stronger U.S. dollar, which is currently up 0.1%, according to the Dollar Index. Gold was last quoted at $913.10 per ounce, down 0.2%, while silver was quoted at $13.94 per ounce, down 0.1%.

The Baltic Dry Index finished unchanged, though the majority of its subindices advanced. The Supramax added 2.7%, while the Handysize finished 1.3% higher. The Panamax mustered a 0.1% gain, but the Capesize Index closed 1.7% lower.DJ30 -126.49 NASDAQ -7.54 SP500 -15.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/635 mln/1655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 576/344 mln/2258

10:00 am : Telecom (+0.5%), considered to be defensive-oriented, is the only sector currently trading with gains.

Telecom is being led by strength in integrated telecom companies (+0.6%), primarily AT&T (T 25.45, +0.20). AT&T announced this morning that it has agreed to pay $2.35 billion for certain wireless assets that are currently held by Verizon (VZ 29.83).

Early movers: Trading up -- CNO +29.7%, CYTX +28.8%, VM +23.1%, PMI +21.5%, ANDS +15.6%, RIV +12.8%, DISH +12.1%, INCY +11.4%, TEN +11.2%, PETS +10.7% Trading down -- HTX -35.7%, CPSL -21.4%, CPBY -18%, ALD -16.8%, AXL -15%, NRF -14.6%, ENG -12.8%, DYN -11.3%, AOB -11.2%, RRI -11%, COF -10.9%, ARM -10.7%, CLNE -10.5%, DRYS -10.4%, YRCW -10.3%, IRE -9.9%DJ30 -138.35 NASDAQ -25.75 SP500 -18.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 618/370 mln/1762 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 455/229 mln/2325

09:45 am : Stocks are on the slide in the first few minutes of trading. Weakness is widespread.

Losses are the steepest among financial stocks. The sector is currently down 3.8%.

Shares of insurers are at the center of the financial sector's weakness. As such, multiline insurers are down 6.0%, while life and health insurers are off by 5.5%.

Bank stocks are also under considerable pressure, though. In turn, the KBW Bank Index is currently down 3.1%. Though the downward move is significant, it pales in comparison to the 36% rally that the KBW logged during the course of last week.DJ30 -127.12 NASDAQ -28.00 SP500 -17.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 558/190 mln/1702 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 428/149 mln/2269

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.00. The major indices are positioned to start the session with sizable losses. There have been neither economic reports nor major earnings announcements this morning, so the downward bias is generally being attributed to a round of profit-taking after the S&P 500 advanced nearly 6% last week. That marked its eighth weekly gain in nine weeks. Financial stocks saw some of the best gains last week by advancing 23%. Part of that move is owed to news that the results from the government's bank stress tests were generally better than expected. However, financials are seeing some of the most pressure this morning.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.50. After advancing approximately 10% last week, crude oil futures prices are down 2.2% to $57.35 per barrel ahead of pit trading. The downward move in oil prices combined with a generally negative bias in premarket trading has shares of integrated energy giant and Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 1.8% to $69.51 per share ahead of the opening bell. Peer Chevron (CVX) is down 1.5% to $69.30 per share in premarket action. Integrated oil companies climbed 6% last week. Oil services and equipment outfit Schlumberger (SLB) is down 2.7% to $55.03 per share in premarket trading; oil services and equpment stocks advanced more than 12% last week.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.80. Foreign markets are trading with losses as France's CAC falls 1.9% amid broad-based weakness. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is among the primary laggards. A report from Dow Jones indicated that AstraZeneca (AZN) said its experimental blood thinner outperformed Plavix, which is coproduced by Sanofi-Aventis. Meanwhile, shares of AZN are helping provide support to Britain's FTSE, which is currently down 0.9%. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is weighing on the session's performance, though. Standard Chartered and HSBC (HBC) are also trading as laggards. According to an article in The Wall Street Journal, HSBC said it is well positioned for the highly uncertain environment. In Germany, Daimler (DAI) and Siemens (SI) are helping to drag the DAX down 1.0%. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished 1.7% lower amid weakness in China Construction Bank. According to The Wall Street Journal, Bank of America (BAC) is dumping its near 17% stake in the company. HSBC showed leadership, however. Japan's Nikkei finished the session 0.2% higher with help from Secom and Takeda Pharmaceuticals. Toyota Motor (TM) was a primary laggard.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. Stock futures point to a markedly lower start for the major indices. Bank stocks are seeing some of the most pressure. Wells Fargo (WFC), which was told by federal regulators last week to raise $13.7 billion in capital, confirmed that it has raised $8.6 billion in common equity and, according to Financial Times, claims it has the earnings power to fill its capital deficit by November and begin repaying the government's loan as soon as practical. Shares of WFC are down 2.7% to $27.42 per share in premarket trading. Meanwhile, US Bancorp (USB) and Capital One (COF) announced plans to raise capital, though they were deemed to have sufficient capital levels by the government's stress tests. The stocks are down 3.9% and 8.1%, respectively, ahead of the opening bell. Regional bank BB&T (BBT) announced plans to repay all of its preffered stock and warrants invested in the company through the government's TARP. The company also reduced its quarerly dividend to $0.15 per share from $0.47 per share. BBT is off by 3.2% in premarket trading. AT&T (T) announced a definitive agreement to acquire from Verizon (VZ) certain wireless assets for $2.35 billion in cash. Meanwhile, AT&T has also agreed to sell certain wireless assets to Verizon for $240 million. Shares of T are up 0.4% to $25.35 per share in premarket action. There are no major economic releases or Fed speakers scheduled during today's trading hours. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver a keynote address at the Atlanta Fed this evening, though. His speech is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.50.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9451.98...+19.20...+0.20%. Hang Seng...17087.95...-301.90...-1.70%.

06:38 am : FTSE...4421.82...-40.30...-0.90%. DAX...4846.46...-49.40...-1.00%.

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