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 Post subject: April 29th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:24 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=175

My Trading Performance: +15.00 Emini ES points

"Once again, I kepted my overall position size low and took less trades. However, usually a FOMC announcement sets up several trade opportunities after the announcement. Today was different via the WRB Analysis producing very little to bite on.

In contrast, I strongly believe with all the global events occurring recently and today's unchange rate announcement...we should see a big gap day tomorrow resulting in very good trade opportunities."


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

---------------------------------

Stocks Hit Multi-Month Highs
Wall Street rallies after central bank holds rates steady, says economic outlook has improved.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 29, 2009: 6:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as expected, but issued a slightly more upbeat economic outlook.

After the close, Bank of America said Ken Lewis has been removed as Chairman, but will stay on as CEO and president.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 169 points, or 2.1%, closing at the highest point since Feb. 9.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 18 points, or 2.2% and ended at the highest point since Jan. 28. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 38 points, or 2.3% and ended at the highest point since Nov. 3, 2008.

Stocks spiked even more in the first half hour after the 2:15 p.m. ET Fed announcement, but lost some steam late in the session.

Investors found positives in the day's bleak report on first-quarter economic growth, pushing stocks higher at the open. The markets extended those gains after the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate, a key short-term interest rate, at a historic low near zero.

In its statement, the bank gave a more upbeat take on the economy than it has recently, although the tone remained cautious. The Fed said that "although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time."

The statement also said the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower, a belief that has helped lift stocks over the last two months, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Securities.

"It's not like they were wildly optimistic, but they acknowledged that the data have been a little better, the consumer is stabilizing and that market conditions are improving, " he said. "They think that the improvement we've seen in financial market conditions over the last month is likely to continue."

Thursday preview: Quarterly results are due in the morning from Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500).

In a big day for economic news, reports are due on personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, manufacturing in the Midwest and the first-quarter employment cost index.

Thursday is also the deadline for Chrysler to come up with the necessary concessions to avoid filing for bankruptcy. The company has already made deals with its union and creditors. Late Wednesday, reports said the company reached a deal with Italian automaker Fiat, fulfilling the government's third requirement for the company to avoid bankruptcy.

Recharging the rally: Stocks were rising again after two down sessions, recharging the advance that boosted the major gauges all more than 20% over a six-week period. Last week, only the Nasdaq gained, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting small losses.

After a period of consolidation on the back of a strong move, stocks are now moving higher, said Michael Church, president at Addison Capital.

"There have been some reports and earnings that were not as bad as expected and that's helped," Church said. "At one point, investors were fearing the apocalypse, but it's become clearer that that's not what is happening."

Wall Street retreated Monday on worries about the potential economic impact of swine flu. On Tuesday, stocks slipped on reports that Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) may need more capital should the recession deepen.

Fears that major banks may need more cash on hand have been in play this week ahead of the results of Treasury's "stress tests" of the largest companies, due next Monday.

"I think people are just looking forward to the tests being over," said Church.

GDP: The economy shrank at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, surprising economists who were looking for an even slower pace of contraction after a rough fourth quarter of last year.

Gross domestic product fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter after falling 6.3% in the fourth quarter. Economists thought it would fall at 4.7% pace, according to Briefing.com forecasts.

GDP was weighed down by a sharp decline in exports and plummeting business inventories. However, the inventory slowdown was seen as a positive, as it could mean the correction cycle is ending.

In addition, personal consumption rose, after falling in the previous quarter, raising hopes that consumer spending will pick up.

In other economic news, home loan applications fell last week to the lowest levels in more than a month due to a drop in refinancing demand.

Wednesday also marked President Obama's 100th day in office.

Banks: Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) has reportedly asked Treasury if it can pay out bonuses to certain workers, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citi has received $45 billion in federal bailout money and may need to raise more. Shares gained 8%.

Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Fifth Third (FITB, Fortune 500) were among the other gainers. The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index rose 5%.

Company news: Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. But the health insurer also said it saw higher-than-expected medical costs. Shares slumped 10%.

Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500), the parent of CNNMoney.com, reported weaker quarterly profit on slowing ad sales, but results were better than what analysts were expecting. Shares gained 1%.

Dendreon (DNDN) shares rallied 94% in its first day of trading after saying its experimental treatment for advanced prostate cancer extended the lives of men suffering from the disease by four months. Shares were halted after the Tuesday afternoon announcement.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than five to one on volume of 1.48 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over three to one on volume of 2.41 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.09% from 3.01% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.04% from 1.05% Monday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate was unchanged at 0.21%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, most Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose $1.05 to settle at $50.97 a barrel.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $6.90 to settle at $900.50 an ounce.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Participants shrugged off a worse-than-expected GDP reading to hand stocks their best single-session gain in one week. Financial stocks led the charge and helped keep the broader market in the green for the entire session.

The advance first quarter GDP report indicated that the U.S. economy fell 6.1% between January and March. A drop of 4.7% had been expected. Despite the ugly headline number, participants weren't deterred from bidding stocks higher. Some took heart that economic conditions may be turning since personal consumption climbed 2.2% after dropping 4.3% in the fourth quarter. The swing in spending was also better than expected as the consensus called for an increase of 0.9%.

However, the FOMC's latest policy statement, released today, noted that household spending will continue to be pressured by job losses, decreased housing wealth, and tight credit conditions. The committee expects continued weak economic activity, but feels its policy actions combined with fiscal stimulus should help contribute to a gradual resumption of sustained economic growth. The FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25%, as expected. Its quantitative easing targets were also unchanged.

Stocks showed some volatility and climbed to a gain of 3.1% following the announcement, but eventually pulled back. Meanwhile, Treasuries moved lower; the 10-year Note finished down roughly 23 ticks, which lifted its yield to almost 3.1%.

Still, hope for an economic recovery in the second half of this year helped prop up oil prices. Oil prices gained 2.2% to close at $51.00 per barrel, despite a massive build of 4.05 million barrels during the week ending April 24. A build of 1.8 million barrels was expected.

The uptick in crude prices combined with broad-based optimism helped lift energy stocks 2.8%. Exxon Mobil (XOM 68.44, +1.36) provided additional support by increasing its quarterly dividend to $0.42 per share from $0.40 per share.

Financials (+4.8%) were the best performing sector, though. Their advance was led by diversified financial services stocks (+5.8%) and diversified bank stocks (+3.7%). Their gains came despite news from Bloomberg.com that at least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks may require additional capital, reflecting participants' willingness to pick up bank stocks after watching the shares slide in each of the past two sessions.

Leadership from financials helped take nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 higher for the session. Telecom (-0.5%) was the only sector to finish in the red.

Earnings news was upbeat heading into Wednesday's trading, but participants generally looked past the announcements. However, earnings will dominate headlines ahead of Thursday's opening bell as approximately 150 companies are scheduled to announce their latest results tomorrow morning. Initial jobless claims data and personal spending data for March are also scheduled for early release.DJ30 +168.78 NASDAQ +38.13 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +3.9% SP400 +2.8% SP500 +18.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2073/2.38 bln/604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2560/1.48 bln/484

3:35 pm : The DOE crude oil inventories report this morning revealed a build of over 4 million barrels. The consensus estimate called for a build of less than 2 million barrels. Despite the larger-than-expected supply, June crude oil futures contracts were able to finish the session up 2.2% at $51.00 per barrel.

June natural gas contracts finished near session lows. The contracts crossed the unchanged level into negative territory just after 2:00 ET and sold off further from there to finish at $3.40 per contract, down 1.2%.

A weak dollar sent gold and silver higher this session.

June gold saw a steady rise in price this session and closed at $900.50 per ounce, up 0.7%.

July silver saw a similar move. The contracts closed near session highs, up 2.8%, at $12.78 per ounce. DJ30 +136.92 NASDAQ +33.72 SP500 +14.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2046/1.98 bln/610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2505/1.03 bln/530

3:05 pm : Stocks have pulled back since climbing to session highs in the wake of the latest FOMC policy statement. All three major indices are still sporting impressive gain, though.

There has been a sudden spurt of selling pressure among telecom stocks. Telecom was up more than 1% earlier, but the sector is now down 0.3%. Verizon (VZ 30.48, -0.48) is leading the downturn, though there is no immediate news story responsible for its weakness.DJ30 +185.18 NASDAQ +42.96 SP500 +20.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/1.78 bln/578 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2565/912 mln/448

2:30 pm :

[BRIEFING.COM] In the FOMC announcement, the Fed said that household spending has seen signs of stabilization, but will continue to be pressured by job losses, decreased housing wealth and tight credit conditions. The committee expects continued weak economic activity, but feels its policy actions combined with fiscal stimulus should help contribute to a gradual resumption of sustained economic growth.

The poor economic environment in the U.S. and overseas led the FOMC to believe that inflation will remain subdued, with a risk of persistent inflation at levels below those that promote economic and price stability.

The vote to leave the fed funds rate and quantitative measures unchanged was unanimous.

While the statement was more positive than the March statement, it didn't provide many surprises.

Of note, Treasuries saw a decline following the statement, with the 10-year down 24 ticks. Stocks are largely unchanged.DJ30 +196.01 NASDAQ +43.56 SP500 +21.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2055/1.56 bln/575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2563/775 mln/442

2:20 pm : The FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25%, as expected. Its quantitative easing targets were also unchanged.

The Fed noted that the economic outlook has improved modestly since March.

The stock market is largely unchanged from preannouncement levels immediately after the announcement.DJ30 +178.49 NASDAQ +39.83 SP500 +20.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2074/1.47 bln/544 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2572/716 mln/429

2:00 pm : The market awaits the FOMC policy directive, which is due in about 15 minutes. The Fed is expected to keep the target interest rate unchanged at between 0.00% and 0.25%. Market participants will be looking for comments regarding its quantitative easing measures, which were announced at the March 18 FOMC meeting.

Recently reported at Bloomberg.com, Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman and current economic advisor to President Obama, said that the economy is "leveling off at a low level," and he does not see a need for a second fiscal stimulus package.

Stocks trade near recently reached session highs.DJ30 +182.71 NASDAQ +43.28 SP500 +21.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2073/1.41 bln/540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2593/683 mln/405

1:30 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 have climbed to fresh session highs. Strength remains widespread as 27 of the 30 Dow components sport gains and 87% of the companies in the broader S&P 500 move higher.

Exxon Mobil (XOM 68.62, +1.54) is providing leadership to both the Dow and the S&P 500. Exxon's strength comes amid general optimism in the broader market, along with higher oil prices (+1.9%). The integrated energy giant has garnered additional support by announcing that it is raising its quarterly dividend to $0.42 per share from $0.40 per share.DJ30 +195.38 NASDAQ +43.82 SP500 +22.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2057/1.30 bln/544 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2591/638 mln/391

1:00 pm : Stocks have been trading with solid, broad-based gains for the entire session.

The upbeat tone comes in the face of a worse-than-expected GDP reading, which indicated that the U.S. economy declined 6.1% in the first quarter. The consensus called for a 4.7% decline.

Despite the ugly headline, some are treating the report with optimism since personal consumption, which often leads the turn in business cycles, climbed 2.2%. That marked a reversal of the 4.3% decline in the fourth quarter, and topped the 0.9% increase that economists had expected. However, the pickup in consumer spending shouldn't necessarily be treated as a sign of complete strength since consumer headwinds remain stiff amid rising unemployment and tighter credit.

Participants await the FOMC's latest policy directive (2:15 PM ET), which is expected to keep the target interest rate between 0.00% and 0.25%. Most attention, then, will focus on how the FOMC plans to steer an economic recovery.

Hope that an economic recovery will take hold in the second half of this year has helped oil prices move higher despite high inventory levels. Another 4.05 million barrels were added to inventories during the week ending April 24. A build of 1.8 million barrels was expected. Crude oil prices have pulled back from their morning highs, but are still sporting a solid gain of 1.0% at $50.45 per barrel.

Earnings have generally been better-than-expected, but the announcements have been given secondary treatment.

Even news from Bloomberg.com that at least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks may require additional capital has generally been ignored. In fact, participants' willingness to pick up bank stocks after watching them slide in each of the past two sessions has the KBW Bank Index up 3.5%. The strength among bank stocks has helped lift the financial sector to a 3.5% gain, which is more than any other sector.

Still, broad-based buying has helped all 10 sectors trade in the green for virtually the entire session. Only health care has found itself in negative territory today. The sector was down 0.4% at its session low, but is now up 0.1%.DJ30 +150.06 NASDAQ +38.65 SP500 +17.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/1.19 bln/566 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2548/578 mln/406

12:30 pm : Health care stocks (+0.1%) continue to lag the broader market, though they have managed to put together a modest advance. The sector's relative weakness comes largely as a result of losses among health care services stocks (-1.0%), managed health care (-0.5%), and pharmaceuticals (-0.4%); pharmaceutical stocks have cast a weight on the sector for two straight sessions.DJ30 +146.71 NASDAQ +38.38 SP500 +17.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2002/1.09 bln/557 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2523/538 mln/423

12:00 pm : The Amex Airline Index is bouncing higher after logging two straight sessions of sizable losses. During the course of the past two sessions, the Airline Index shed almost 13%, but it is up 4.0% this session as all 13 of its components ascend.

Selling pressure initially took hold of airline stocks as concerns regarding swine flu intensified and public officials recommended that travel be avoided. Though fear of pandemic hasn't subsided, airline stocks have managed to snap back this session.DJ30 +149.82 NASDAQ +41.28 SP500 +17.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1987/973 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2514/483 mln/411

11:30 am : Energy stocks (+3.0%) are showing solid gains as crude oil prices climb 2.1% to $50.95 per barrel. The sector has also been helped along by better-than-expected earnings per share results from integrated oil and gas outfit Hess (HES 57.85, +2.96) and oil well services and equipment outfit Baker Hughes (BHI 36.97, +3.03). Reuters reports that the CEO of Baker Hughes said the current consensus earnings estimate for the second quarter is too high; the consensus estimate currently stands at $0.55 per share.DJ30 +169.89 NASDAQ +43.11 SP500 +19.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1995/854 mln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2523/430 mln/370

11:00 am : All three headline indices are now trading with gains ranging from 2% to 2.3%. Small- and mid-cap stocks are faring even better as the Russell 2000 climbs 3.0% and the S&P 400 advances 2.4%.

The upbeat tone comes even though first quarter GDP contracted at a 6.1% rate, which is much worse than the 4.7% decline that was expected. Still, participants are looking at the positive side of things, especially news that personal spending increased 2.2%, which is more than the 1.9% that was expected.

Participants will be looking for further encouragement when the FOMC releases its latest policy statement at 2:15 PM ET. The target rate is expected to remain between 0.00% and 0.25%, so most attention will be placed on the FOMC's directive and any clues regarding the direction of the economy and any tools that will be employed to steer the economy.DJ30 +158.82 NASDAQ +37.19 SP500 +17.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1925/686 mln/509 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2489/354 mln/361

10:30 am : Oil prices have moved higher following the latest weekly crude oil inventory report, strengthening the first upward move by crude oil prices in three sessions. Crude prices are now up 2.2% to $51.00 per barrel. Futures contracts were pricing oil at roughly $50.80 per barrel in the minutes leading up to the inventory report.

According to the Department of Energy, crude oil inventories showed a build of 4.05 million barrels for the week ending April 24. A build of 1.8 million barrels was widely expected.

For now, hope for an economic recovery in the second half of the year is the main catalyst behind the upward move in oil prices. However, any sustainable, material advance in crude oil prices likely requires stockpiles to be pared since U.S. oil inventories are currently near their highest levels in almost two decades. Nonetheless, oil futures prices are up roughly 14% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, with Memorial Day roughly one month away and the summer driving season unofficially set to follow, gasoline stockpiles were reduced 4.70 million barrels. An addition of 200,000 barrels was expected.

Natural gas prices are also showing strength. Contracts for June delivery are pricing the stuff 1.7% higher at $3.50 per contract.

Precious metals are trading with strength amid weakness in the dollar. Gold prices are currently up 0.4% to $897.00 per ounce, while silver is up 2.2% to $12.70 per ounce.

The Baltic Dry Index closed 0.1% lower to log its fourth consecutive loss. The Panamax Index dropped 1.9%, while the Capesize Index fell 0.9%. The Supramax Index shed 0.6%.DJ30 +145.12 NASDAQ +33.48 SP500 +16.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1922/511 mln/542 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2437/273 mln/350

10:00 am : Stocks are building on their initial gains. Financial stocks continue to lead the way by climbing to a 2.5% gain.

Strength in the financial sector is largely rooted in shares of diversified financial services companies (+3.5%) and diversified banks (+3.4%). JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.64, +0.85), Bank of America (BAC 8.63, +0.48), and Wells Fargo (WFC 20.17, +0.69) are primary leaders among the two groups; their advance comes in the face of concern that banks may need to raise more capital in order to satisfy government-run stress tests.DJ30 +117.56 NASDAQ +26.94 SP500 +12.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/301 mln/540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/162 mln/412

09:45 am : Stocks have started the session with strong gains; all three major indices are up by at least 1%.

The upward move has been broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade in the green.

Financials are seeing the best gains, followed by materials stocks. The pair is up 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.DJ30 +84.51 NASDAQ +16.57 SP500 +9.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/166 mln/540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2097/98 mln/476

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. A positive tone continues to permeate premarket trading, suggesting that a solid start is in order for the major indices. The upbeat tone was undeterred by a worse-than-expected GDP reading, which showed that first quarter economic activity declined 6.1%. The consensus called for a 4.7% decline. However, news that personal consumption swung from a 4.3% decrease in the fourth quarter to a 2.2% increase in the first quarter has some participants feeling encouranged. News from Bloomberg.com that at least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks may require additional capital has also failed to discourage investors ahead of the opening bell. Instead, bank stocks are showing strength.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.30. Britain's FTSE is sporting a 1.5% gain as bank stocks provide leadership after shares of Barclays (BCS) were upgraded by analysts at HSBC. Standard Chartered and HSBC (HBC) are sharing in the strength. BP PLC (BP) is back in the red after logging gains in each of the past six sessions. The most modest of those gains came yesterday when the stock advanced less than 0.1% on the FTSE after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profits. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is trading with a modest gain. The company's first quarter income was more than halved to $3.3 billion, excluding certain adjustments. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is providing leadership to France's CAC, which is up 1.4%. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company saw a 19% increase in first-quarter net profit to EUR 1.58 billion, and disclosed an overhaul of its pipeline of experimental drugs. ArcelorMittal (MT) is a primary laggard in the CAC, however. The company intends to offer shares of its common stock and convertible senior notes for a total combined amount of approximately $3.0 billion as part of its strategy to accelerate debt reduction and strengthen its balance sheet. Germany's DAX is donning a 1.0% gain with strength from Siemens (SI). The Wall Street Journal reported that Siemens actually lowered its profit forecast for the current fiscal year. However, the move was widely expected, and the company's first quarter operating profit from core businesses was up 43% to EUR 1.84 billion. Net profit climbed to EUR 962 million from EUR 384 million year-over-year. Allianz (AZ) is also showing strength as Dow Jones reports that the company expects to break even in the first quarter. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 2.6% following a two-day slide, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 2.8% after clawing back after a two-day slump. Consumer goods exporter Li & Fung jumped after it said that it expects to sign more outsourcing deals within months as cash-strapped retailers in the U.S. look to cut costs in the economic downturn. Oil refiner Sinopec (SNP) climbed after posting a near 85% year-over-year increase in first quarter earnings. The company forecast an increase of at least 50% for earnings in the first half of this year. Bank shares gained ground as China Construction Bank and Bank of China advanced. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite finished 2.8% higher, led by financial and property shares. Japan's Nikkei was closed today for a holiday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. First quarter GDP declined 6.1%, which is much worse than the 4.7% decline that was widely expected, but up slightly from the 6.3% drop that was experienced in the fourth quarter. Despite rising unemployment, personal consumption swung from a 4.3% decrease in the fourth quarter to a 2.2% increase in the first quarter; economists expected a modest increase of 0.9% for the first quarter. Core personal consumption expenditures climbed 1.5% after increasing 0.9% in the fourth quarter. Core PCE was expected to increase just 1.3%. Stock futures continue to sport a strong lead over fair value.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Stock futures currently indicate a positive bias ahead of the first quarter GDP reading, which is due at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus estimate calls for an annualized decline of 4.7% from the prior quarter as business components are expected to cause a drag, but consumer spending is anticipated to provide support, despite rising unemployment. Overall, any number that is better than the 6.3% decline registered in the fourth quarter should help the view that the economy is in the process of bottoming. The Federal Open Market Committee issues its latest monetary policy decision at 2:15 PM ET. The FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, so most of the market's attention will be placed on the FOMC's policy statement. This morning's earnings news has generally been better than expected. Aetna (AET) posted first quarter earnings of $0.96 per share, topping the consensus of $0.93 per share. Aetna reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2009; the company expects earnings to range from $3.85 to $3.95 per share, which allows room for an upside surprise over the $3.85 per share consensus forecast. However, shares of AET are down 4.7% to $23.25 per share in premarket action. Wyeth (WYE) posted first quarter earnings of $0.89 per share, which is a penny more than analysts anticipated, on average. Wyeth reaffirmed its 2009 outlook which calls for earnings from $3.33 to $3.53 per share. That outlook brackets the $3.50 per share that analysts are currently forecasting. Shares of WYE are unchanged in premarket trading as investors account for the company's acquisition by Pfizer (PFE). Following yesterday's news that Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) may need more capital to satisfy government-run stress tests, Bloomberg.com reported that at least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks require additional capital, according to preliminary results of government stress tests. Still, actual results from the tests aren't due until next week, and bank stocks are showing strength ahead of the opening bell.

06:25 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...14956.95...+401.80...+2.80%.

06:25 am : FTSE...4145.47...+49.10...+1.20%. DAX...4657.45...+49.20...+1.10%.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00.

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