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 Post subject: April 28th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:54 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=174

My Trading Performance: +13.00 Emini ES points

"Today I mainly used the VTR strategies for entries. Although I did a later entry (chaser) in reaction to an earlier APAOR strategy. The trade resulted as my biggest trade of the day and just in time because it was also my last trade of the day."

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

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Stocks End Choppy Session Lower
Wall Street slips as worries about bank stress tests and swine flu overshadow a consumer confidence report.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 28, 2009: 4:21 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Tuesday, ending a choppy session with declines as a stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report competed with jitters about the health of U.S. banks and the possible economic impact of swine flu.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 8 points, or 0.1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index slipped 2 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) eased 5 points, or 0.3%.

Stocks seesawed through the session as investors sorted through the day's news. The indecision came after a six-week-long broad-based rally on bets that the worst for the economy has already happened -- a rally that began to sputter last week as quarterly results came in.

This week, investors have been keeping an eye on the banks and the latest reports on the swine flu outbreak.

"The markets are experiencing a bit of a tug-of-war," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

"The economic news was somewhat better than expected," he said. "However, we've come a long distance over a short period of time and investors continue to worry about the implications of the spread of the flu virus."

The April consumer confidence index rose to 39.2 from a revised 26.9 in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would improve to 29.7.

Sheldon said the two biggest longer-term issues that remain unresolved are a bottom in the housing market and the potential need for more capital among the country's banks.

Bank sector: Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) will need to raise more capital, according to initial government "stress tests," the Wall Street Journal reported. Regulators reportedly told the banks that they need to boost their reserves to prepare for a potential worsening of the economy.

Results of Treasury's tests of the largest U.S. banks aren't due until next week. Citi, saying it couldn't disclose test results, issued a statement assuring that its capital base is strong.

Bank of America shares fell 9%, Citi dropped 6% and the KBW Bank (BKX) sector index fell 2.5%.

Swine flu: Concerns about the economic impact of the swine flu outbreak remained in place Tuesday as health officials have confirmed at least 90 cases of the disease worldwide and 50 in the United States.

Economists are concerned that should the outbreak become a large-scale pandemic, it would throw off a global economic recovery attempt and even intensify the recession.

Automakers: Chrysler said it has made a deal with its creditors to reduce $7 billion in loans, inching it closer to resolving its financial crisis. Over the weekend, the automaker said it won key concessions from its union. The company also needs to hammer out a deal with Italian automaker Fiat ahead of the Thursday deadline to avoid bankruptcy.

Both Chrysler and General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) have been getting by on billions in government aid. General Motors has until June 1 to cut debt and avoid bankruptcy. On Monday, the company announced a broad restructuring plan.

Quarterly results: Drugmakers Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY, Fortune 500) reported results Tuesday morning.

Pfizer reported lower quarterly earnings that topped expectations on lower revenue that missed expectations. The company saw sales of its blockbuster Lipitor lose out to cheaper generic versions. However, cost cutting helped limit any declines.

Bristol-Myers Squibb reported weaker earnings that topped estimates on higher revenue that missed estimates. The company was hurt by weaker sales of Erbitux, its colon cancer medicine.

Company news: IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) said Tuesday that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 10% and will buy another $3 billion of its outstanding stock.

In other news, biotech Dendreon (DNDN) said its experimental treatment added four months to the lives of men with advanced prostate cancer. But Dendreon shares tumbled 45% before the stock was halted, ahead of the news.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by a narrow margin on volume of 1.07 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners five to four on volume of 1.95 billion shares.

Economy: The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index fell 18.6% in February from a year ago, extending the losing streak to 31 months. But it was the first time since October 2007 that the index didn't hit a record low in its year-over-year drop.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.01% from 2.92% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.04% from 1.05% Monday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate was unchanged at 0.21%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery slipped 90 cents to $49.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $14.60 to settle at $893.60 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Bank stocks led losses in the early going and into the close, but in between stocks were able to trade with modest gains amid signs of improved consumer confidence and strength in Dow component IBM.

Financial stocks were down as much as 2.6% in the first few minutes of trading as investors grew worried about bank capital levels. According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Bank of America (BAC 8.15, -0.77) and Citigroup (C 2.89, -0.18) may need to raise billions to satisfy the government's bank stress tests. Citigroup simply responded by stating that its regulatory capital base is strong and it continues working to improve tangible common ratios, according to Reuters.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 32.79, +0.01) bucked the negative trend among major banks to lead financials into positive ground, but the advance proved unsustainable as sellers redoubled their efforts against financials and handed the sector a 1.8% loss for the session, worse than any other sector.

Though the financial sector's late downturn resulted in a loss for the broader market, stocks were able to trade with modest gains for much of the session. The gains came after the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index for April improved to 39.2 from 26.9. The reading was expected to come in at 29.7.

Meanwhile, IBM (IBM 101.94, +1.99) provided additional support to the broader market by increasing its quarterly cash dividend by $0.05 to $0.55 per share and authorizing $3 billion in funds for stock repurchases. Despite IBM's announcement, tech stocks finished the session with a 0.6% loss.

Telecom stocks actually logged the best performance of the session by advancing 1.2%. Verizon (VZ 30.96, +0.42) showed leadership amid reports that the company is pursuing partnerships that will help develop advanced generation mobile phones.

Biotech stocks (+0.8%) and managed health care stocks (+3.6%) provided support to the health care sector after Hospira (HSP 32.99, +1.65) and Coventry Health (CVH 15.22, +1.01) each reported better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Pharmaceuticals stocks (-0.8%) garnered little support even though Pfizer (PFE 13.39, -0.10) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 19.65, -0.89) both posted solid quarterly earnings results.DJ30 -8.05 NASDAQ -5.60 NQ100 -0.6% R2K +0.7% SP400 +0.5% SP500 -2.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1547/2.10 bln/1110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1581/1.25 bln/1409

3:30 pm : June crude oil opened lower this morning due to worries that a spreading swine-flu outbreak will curtail travel, and in turn reduce oil demand, according to MarketWatch. However, the futures contracts were able to recoup most of their losses during the session, and closed at $49.83 per barrel, down just 0.6%.

May natural gas futures contracts, which expired at the close of the pit trade, ended 2.8% higher at $3.35 per contract. June natural gas contracts rallied throughout the session and closed near session highs at $3.44 per contract, up 2.4%.

Gold and silver futures both traded lower this session.

June gold futures contracts were able to recover from session lows of $884.60 per ounce and closed at $893.60 per ounce, down 1.6% for the session.

July silver futures contracts traded between $12.40 and $12.50 per ounce for most of the session. The contracts weren't able to substantially recover. They closed at $12.43 per ounce, down 4.3%.DJ30 +19.91 NASDAQ +2.79 SP500 +1.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1563/1.75 bln/1077 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1588/942 mln/1402

3:00 pm : Broad-based buying has placed nine of the 10 major sectors in the green. Materials still trade with a considerable loss of 0.6%.

Despite weakness among bank stocks in the early going, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.56, +0.78) is actually providing leadership to the financial sector. Financials were down more than any other sector in the early going, but now sport a modest gain of 0.1%.DJ30 +42.05 NASDAQ +7.60 SP500 +4.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1710/1.59 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1803/852 mln/1171

2:30 pm : After trading sideways for the entire afternoon, stocks recently climbed to their best levels of the session.

The upward move comes as materials stocks (-0.1%) pare their losses and energy stocks ascend to a 1.4% gain.

The run up by the energy sector comes as oil prices improve their position heading into the close of pit trading. Crude oil prices were recently quoted at $49.80 per barrel, down 0.7%. They were down to $48.55 per barel.DJ30 +49.06 NASDAQ +4.38 SP500 +4.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/1.46 bln/963 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1807/786 mln/1145

2:00 pm : The major indices remain stuck in a sideways trade.

Telecom is outperforming the broader market by a considerable margin as it sports a 1.4% gain. Verizon (VZ 31.00, +0.46) is a leader in the space as reports indicate the company is working with Microsoft (MSFT 19.88, -0.52) to develop a rival to Apple's (AAPL 124.43, -0.30) iPhone.

An earlier report from BusinessWeek indicated Verizon and Apple may be considering a partnership to create a phone that is similar to the iPhone. AT&T (T 25.79, +0.48) currently has rights to provide service to Apple's iPhone.DJ30 +10.35 NASDAQ -3.64 SP500 +0.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1492/1.34 bln/1118 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/714 mln/1323

1:30 pm : The major indices continue to move along the unchanged line. Meanwhile, sellers are pressuring Treasuries by pushing the benchmark 10-year Note 23 ticks lower to its worst level of the session.

The downward move by the 10-year Note has pushed its yield back above 3.0%.DJ30 +4.85 NASDAQ -0.10 SP500 +0.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/1.23 bln/1061 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/660 mln/1310

1:05 pm : Fear that banks may be in need of more capital sent stocks lower in the early going, but a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading and reassuring moves by IBM helped stocks pare their losses and find positive ground.

Financial stocks led losses in the first few minutes of trading. Their weakness followed a report from The Wall Street Journal that indicated Bank of America (BAC 8.32, -0.60) and Citigroup (C 2.92, -0.15) may need to raise massive amounts of additional capital to satisfy the government's bank stress tests. Citigroup, according to Reuters, stated that it cannot comment on the stress test until results are announced next week, but it did indicate that its regulatory capital base is strong and, as previously announced, it is working to improve tangible common ratios.

Still, the potential need for capital has investors questioning which other banks may be in a similar position, especially after Northern Trust (NTRS 54.13, -0.88) announced a public offering to sell $750 million of common stock.

The downturn in financial stocks led a broad-based decline that took all 10 major sectors into the red. Materials stocks were down as much as 2.2% with steel stocks trading down as much as 3.9% after U.S. Steel (X 26.33, -1.38) reported ugly results for its first quarter and slashed its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.30 per share.

Stocks were given a lift, though, when the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index for April improved from 26.9 to 39.2, which is the highest reading since November. However, the reading is still short of the 62.8 that was seen one year ago.

IBM (IBM 101.90, +1.95) provided support to the broader market's upward move when it declared an increase of $0.05 to the company's regular quarterly cash dividend, which now stands at $0.55 per share, and authorized $3 billion in funds for stock repurchases. An IBM executive also indicated that the company expects to generate considerably more cash in the second half of the year, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Despite strength in IBM, the tech sector is unchanged.

Health care stocks are outperforming the broader market for the second straight session. In the prior session, investors pursued pharmaceutical and biotech stocks amid swine flu fears, but this session investors are pushing back on pharmaceuticals stocks (-0.4%). Even upbeat earnings from Pfizer (PFE 13.39, -0.10) and in-line earnings from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 19.77, -0.77) have failed to garner support for pharmaceuticals.

However, stronger-than-expected earnings from Coventry Health (CVH 15.49, +1.28) has helped managed health care stocks (+6.2%) push health care 0.9% higher.DJ30 +33.93 NASDAQ +9.26 SP500 +2.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/1.13 bln/943 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1703/609 mln/1185

12:30 pm : After slipping back into the red, the stock market has returned to higher ground.

Gains are generally broad-based as seven of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 sport gains; materials (-0.7%), industrials (-0.6%), and financials (-0.3%) are the only sectors showing losses.DJ30 +24.21 NASDAQ +8.99 SP500 +2.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1564/1.03 bln/961 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1667/557 mln/1225

12:00 pm : Stocks are chopping along in a rather narrow trading range. Still, all three of the major indices are well off of their morning lows.

Materials stocks are still seeing some significant losses, however. The sector is currently down 1.2%, more than any other sector, as steel stocks slide 2.2% following a disappointing quarterly announcement from U.S. Steel (X 26.41, -1.30).

Gold stocks are also showing particular weakness. The industry group is down 3.9% as contract prices for gold price the yellow metal 1.9% lower at $890.10 per ounce.DJ30 +3.10 NASDAQ +5.00 SP500 -0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/921 mln/1051 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1511/505 mln/1345

11:30 am : Stocks have pulled back a bit so that the major indices trade in mixed fashion. Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap stocks are sporting solid gains. They are up 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

Part of the advance among small-caps stems from leadership in Dendreon (DNDN 23.80, +2.25). The company is scheduled to present data on its key prostate cancer drug, Provenge. Initial studies on the drug indicated that the drug improved overall survival compared to a placebo.DJ30 -3.75 NASDAQ +2.83 SP500 -1.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/823 mln/1086 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1498/454 mln/1336

11:00 am : Optimism from tech services giant IBM (IBM 102.05, +2.10) has helped stocks hold on to gains after climbing out of negative territory. An executive at IBM stated that the company is expected to generate considerably more cash in the second half of the year, according to The Wall Street Journal.

IBM is currently the primary leader in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.DJ30 +22.62 NASDAQ +5.95 SP500 +1.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/681 mln/955 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1598/380 mln/1186

10:35 am : Precious metals are contending with considerable selling pressure. Gold prices are down 1.9% to $890.10 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver is being priced 4.0% lower at $12.47 per ounce.

Crude oil futures are also being pushed lower. Oil was recently quoted 1.4% lower at $49.45 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are up, however. Futures contracts are pricing the commodity at $3.28 each, up 0.8%.

The Baltic Dry Index dropped 2.7% to close lower for the third consecutive session. All subindices dropped on the day.DJ30 +14.09 NASDAQ +3.50 SP500 +1.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1341/501 mln/949 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/287 mln/1240

10:00 am : The major indices are quickly paring their losses as the April consumer confidence report comes in with a better-than-expected reading of 39.2, up from the prior reading of 26.0. The consensus estimate called for a reading of just 29.7.

The recent increase in buying has been particularly kind to retailers. Stocks of retailers are now up 1.1%, as a group. Consumer discretionary stocks are up 0.7%.

Early movers: Gapping up: NVAX +25.5%, PRXL +23%, EFUT +19.1%, BCRX +17.8%, WAT +13.4%, AAN +10.7%; Gapping down: BGM -23.3%, RGM -19.7%, CAS -19.5%, SSW -14.4%, DFG -12%, RCII -11.6%, FDP -10.8%DJ30 -12.85 NASDAQ -6.65 SP500 -3.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1156/422 mln/1077 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/248 mln/1453

09:45 am : The KBW Banking Index is down 2.8% in the first few minutes of trading as Bank of America (BAC 8.31, -0.61) and Citigroup (C 2.89, -0.18) are sent lower amid concern that the two outfits may be in need of additional capital to satisfy government-run stress tests.

Weakness in the pair is bleeding into other bank stocks as investors become fearful that many others will have to come up with more capital as well.

To that point, Northern Trust (NTRS 51.99, -3.02) has commenced a public offering to sell $750 million of common stock, which is not conditioned upon the concurrent consummation of approximately $500 million in original principal amount of senior notes.

The financial sector is currently down 2.0%, more than any other sector in the S&P 500.DJ30 -32.5 NASDAQ -14.22 SP500 -6.8 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1181/1041 NYSE Adv/Dec 1245/1451

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. According to stock futures, the major indices are facing a downward start, which would extend losses seen in the prior session. Financial services companies and banks led that decline and look as if they may lead an early downturn this session. The negative bias surrounding the financial sector stems from a report by The Wall Street Journal that indicated regulators may want Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) to raise billions of dollars in additional capital to hedge against further economic deterioration. That has heightened uncertainty regarding whether other banks that were part of the government's stress tests might be in need of more capital, too. Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE) posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for its latest quarter and reaffirmed its outlook. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) generated in-line earnings per share results and also reaffirmed its outlook. The solid results and interest in pharmaceuticals amid swine flu fears are helping shares of the two companies push higher ahead of the opening bell.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Steel stocks are being slammed ahead of the opening bell. U.S. Steel (X) is down 7.5% to $25.62 per share after announcing last evening a first quarter adjusted loss of $3.84 per share, which was worse than the expected loss of $1.69 per share. U.S. Steel made things worse by indicating during its conference call this morning that its order book remains at low levels as demand is expected to fall to levels not seen in 50 years. In turn, the company expects an operating loss for the second quarter, and has cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.30 per share. In premarket trading, Reliance Steel and Aluminum (RS) is down 4.3% to $32.26 per share, AK Steel (AKS) is down 6.6% to $11.07 per share, Nucor (NUE) is down 2.3% to $38.05 per share, and Allegheny Tech (ATI) is down 2.7% to $29.50 per share. Steel stocks slipped 4.4% in the prior session.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. U.S. stock futures continue to point to a lower start. Foreign stocks have shown similar weakness in Tuesday's trade. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is currently down 2.1% as weakness in shares of financial giant HSBC (HBC) weigh on the broader market. Fellow financial outfits Lloyd's Group (LYG) and Barclay's (BCS) are also showing weakness following reports that U.S. financial behemoths Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) may need to raise more capital to protect against worsening economic conditions. BP PLC (BP) is providing some support to the FTSE, however. According to The Wall Street Journal, BP showed signs that its turnaround is yielding results, despite having its first quarter adjusted net profit more than halved. Still, the report indicated that BP topped analysts' expectations. In Germany, the DAX is down 2.8%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is leading losses on the German bourse even though reports indicate the company swung to a profit in the first quarter. The bank noted that its capital position remains very solid and its liquidity position is strong. According to The Wall Street Journal, quarterly credit provisions increased to 526 million euros from 114 million euros. Automaker Daimler (DAI) is also weighing on trade, even though the company expects to incur a less severe loss in the second quarter than it incurred during the first quarter, according to Dow Jones. France's CAC is currently off by 2.3% as financial services companies BNP Paribas and AXA (AXA) show weakness. Declining issues outnumber advancers on the CAC by almost 7-to-1. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei shed 2.7% as Fanuc LTD and Canon led losses. Chugai Pharmaceutical showed strength, though, as investors continue pursuing pharmaceutical stocks amid mounting swine flu fears. Automaker Honda (HMC) finished with a loss even though it reported a smaller-than-expected loss of $2.9 billion for the latest quarter, according to Reuters. Reuters also indicated that the company expects to post a profit for the current year, thanks to cost cuts. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 1.9% amid weakness in HSBC. Industrial and commercial Bank of China provided support as it rebounded from losses in the prior session.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Shares of Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are under pressure in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that regulators have told the banks that more capital may need to be raised, based on early results of the government's stress tests. Regulators have not publicly confirmed that either bank needs more capital since actual results from the stress tests aren't due until next week. Still, selling pressure is spreading to other bank stocks ahead of the opening bell. In earnings news, big pharma Pfizer (PFE) reported first quarter earnings of $0.54 per share, which is $0.05 better than analysts expected. The company continues to expect adjusted earnings for 2009 to range from $1.85 to $1.95 per share, which leaves a bit of room for disappointment when the forecast is compared to the current consensus forecast of $1.95 per share. Shares of PFE are up 1.6% to $13.70 per share in premarket action. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) generated $0.48 per share for the first quarter. The results matched analysts' consensus estimate. Bristol-Myers Squibb reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2009, during which the company expects earnings to range from $1.85 to $2.00 per share. The consensus currently stands at $1.93 per share for the full year. The company added that it continues to expect adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations to grow at a minimum compounded annual growth rate of 15% from the 2007 base through 2010 without rebasing for the sale of certain businesses and excluding certain costs. Shares of BMY were recently quoted fractionally higher at $20.55 per share ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, the broader market is on track for a downward start, according to stock futures.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50.

06:27 am : Nikkei...8493.77...-232.60...-2.70%. Hang Seng...14555.11...-285.30...-1.90%.

06:27 am : FTSE...4083.68...-83.30...-2.00%. DAX...4574.70...-119.40...-2.50%.

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