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 Post subject: April 23rd Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 4:40 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=171

My Trading Performance: +11.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Stage Late Advance
Wall Street manages gains after choppy session. Weak existing home sales report disappoints. Corporate earnings in focus, too.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 23, 2009: 4:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks staged a late-session rally at the end of a turbulent day, influenced by a weak housing market report, a mix of corporate results and the latest for the automakers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 70 points, or 0.9%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 8 points or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 6 points, or 0.4%.

After the close, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) reported lower-than-expected quarterly sales on earnings that met estimates. Biotech Amgen (AMGN, Fortune 500) also reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales and earnings.

Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. Dow stock American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that topped estimates.

Stocks are down for the week as investors have retreated after a six-week advance that propelled the S&P 500 nearly 29%. Stocks zigzagged Thursday as investors sorted through the profit reports and economic news.

"The market is trying to determine whether we've come too far, too fast and it's been getting some mixed signals," said Christopher Colarik, portfolio manager at Glendmede.

"Incrementally, we are getting some economic and earnings reports that are less bad, if not good," he said. "But it might be a two-steps-forward, one-step-back kind of thing, like with the housing data."

Automakers: General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said in the afternoon that it plans to temporarily shut down 13 of 20 North American plants this summer in order to reduce its inventory. The company has been hit hard by the recession and slowdown in auto demand and has until June 1 to cut its debt and labor costs or face Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Shares fell 5%.

Chrysler is reportedly set to enter Chapter 11 as soon as next week, The New York Times reported Thursday. The Treasury Department is overseeing the process, which will reportedly protect union members' pensions and retiree health care benefits.

Italian carmaker Fiat will complete its acquisition of a 20% stake in the company while it is under bankruptcy protection.

Housing: March existing home sales fell to a 4.57 million unit annual rate from a 4.71 million rate in February, the National Association of Realtors said. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales would fall to a 4.65 million unit annual rate.

The report countered bets that the housing market is nearing a bottom. Such bets were sparked by February housing market reports that showed smaller-than-expected declines in sales and productions.

Movers: Chevron, Exxon Mobil and McDonald's were among the Dow advancers. IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) were among the losers.

Chipmakers Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) and Xilinx (XLNX) dragged on the Nasdaq, while eBay and Fifth Third Bancorp were among the advancers.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers eight to seven on volume of 790 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 1.43 billion shares.

Results: Among the companies reporting results Thursday, regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss. Shares gained 3% in active Nasdaq trading.

PNC (PNC, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly profit due partly to its purchase of National City. Shares were little changed.

eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) reported lower quarterly sales and earnings that topped forecasts Wednesday, sending shares 13% higher Thursday.

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates late Wednesday, sending shares 3% higher Thursday.

On the downside, UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) reported earnings and revenue that slumped versus a year ago due to the recession. Shares missed analysts' estimates. The stock fell 2.8%.

Jobs: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose last week to 640,000 from a revised 613,000 the previous week, topping economists' estimates.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.95% from 2.94% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.09% from 1.10% Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate dipped to 0.20% from 0.21% Wednesday.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended higher and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 48 cents to $49.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $14 to $906.50 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : For the second straight session, the S&P 500 encountered resistance at the 850 level in the final hour of trading, but this time buyers responded by bidding shares higher to help the stock market to close just above 850 at its best level of the session. Financials were integral to the late rebound.

Financial stocks outperformed the broader market for the entire session and provided leadership to the stock market's late-session advance. The sector closed with a 4.5% gain, thanks largely to an 8.4% bounce by diversified bank stocks.

Bank stocks bounded as participants prepare for the Treasury's announcement regarding bank stress test measures. The announcement is scheduled for tomorrow, but actual stress test results won't be released until May 4.

With actual results of the tests still unknown, some investors are treating regional bank stocks with caution. Such caution caused regional bank stocks to trade as laggards in the financial sector for much of the session. Still, they finished 3.2% higher as PNC Financial (PNC 40.93, +2.87) garnered support after reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Better-than-expected earnings results from Apple (AAPL 125.40, +3.89), eBay (EBAY 16.62, +1.82), and ConocoPhillips (COP 39.93, +1.87) actually supported a stronger overall bias ahead of the opening bell. Disappointing earnings and guidance from UPS (UPS 53.33, -1.42) and Nucor (NUE 40.00, -4.07) did little to disrupt the early, positive tone.

However, stocks reversed early gains and spent the rest of the morning trading in choppy fashion after participants found out that existing home sales for March fell 3.0% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 4.57 million. Annualized home sales for March were expected to total 4.65 million units. At the current sales pace, the supply of unsold homes increased to 9.8 months from 9.7 months.

In other economic news, initial claims for the week ending April 18 were up 27,000 from the prior week to 640,000, which is spot on with expectations. Continuing claims advanced to another record high of 6.14 million.

Tomorrow's economic calendar features March durable goods orders data and new home sales data for March. 3M (MMM 54.21, +1.15), Ford (F 4.49, +0.21), and Honeywell (HON 32.38, +0.69) are among the more widely held companies due to report their quarterly earnings results tomorrow morning before the opening bell.DJ30 +70.49 NASDAQ +6.09 NQ100 +0.7% R2K -0.9% SP400 -0.4% SP500 +8.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 993/2.45 bln/1660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1848/1.57 bln/1173

3:30 pm : June crude oil rose this session to $49.50 per contract, up 1.3% for the session. The crude contracts traded in positive territory for most of today's session.

On the other hand, May natural gas contracts closed at $3.41 per contract, lower by 3.4%. The contracts were sold off at the open and never made a substantial recovery.

Precious metals were able to rally as the dollar traded down on the session.

July silver staged an impressive gain. The futures saw a significant spike late in the morning and finished 3.6% higher to close at $12.78 per ounce.

June gold followed suit by gaining 1.6% on the session. Gold futures saw a similar spike late in the morning and closed at $906.60 per ounce, highs not seen since April 3.DJ30 +2.47 NASDAQ -7.23 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 879/2.0 bln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1479/1.2 bln/1511

3:00 pm : Action has been choppy since the opening bell and stocks continue to trade without clear direction.

Small- and mid-cap stocks have been strongly out of favor for the entire session, though. As a result, the Russell 2000 is off by 1.5% and the S&P 400 is down 1.3%. DJ30 +31.14 NASDAQ -5.08 SP500 +2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 918/1.81 bln/1726 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/1.00 bln/1404

2:30 pm : The stock market has been chopping along the unchanged mark, but looks ready to make an upward turn to follow the financial sector (+2.0%) and energy sector (+1.3%) higher.

Financials are still a bit off of their session high, but energy stocks are trading near their best levels of the session.DJ30 +14.65 NASDAQ -6.76 SP500 +0.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 933/1.65 bln/1672 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/896 mln/1400

2:05 pm : Energy stocks are sporting solid gains after grappling with some selling pressure earlier. The sector is up 1.2% amid leadership from ConocoPhillips (COP 39.64, +1.58), which reported earnings of $0.56 per share. That was $0.14 more than analysts expected. Exxon Mobil (XOM 65.36, +0.61) and Chevron (CVX 65.31, +1.56) are sharing in COP's strength.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY 29.58, 55.32, -0.24) posted first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.37 per share by $0.13. Despite the upbeat results, the company's shares are still in the red. National Oilwell Varco (NOV 29.57, -3.38) is under pressure, too, even though it reported earnings of $1.13 per share, which is better than the $1.06 per share that was widely expected

Meanwhile, crude oil futures are pricing oil 0.6% higher at $49.15 per barrel.DJ30 +8.28 NASDAQ -4.26 SP500 +2.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 931/1.53 bln/1660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1523/827 mln/1434

1:30 pm : Stocks are finding a bit of support, which has pushed the S&P 500 and the Dow back into the green. The Nasdaq, however, continues to trade with a slight loss.

The overall tone in the broader market remains a bit mixed. Half the sectors in the S&P 500 remain in the red.DJ30 +19.67 NASDAQ -0.31 SP500 +2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 991/1.41 bln/1580 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1638/758 mln/1277

1:00 pm : Better-than-expected earnings results from several widely held stocks helped the major indices start the session on strong footing, but stocks faltered following some disappointing home sales data. Still, investors continue clinging to financial stocks ahead of tomorrow's announcement regarding bank stress tests from the Treasury.

Despite a weak close to the prior session, stocks were bid higher in the first few minutes of trading as participants welcomed earnings results from Apple (AAPL 125.48, +3.97), eBay (EBAY 16.21, +1.41), ConocoPhillips (COP 39.39, +1.33), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY 55.35, -0.21) that all exceeded Wall Street's expectations.

There were a few disappointing reports, though. UPS (UPS 53.03, -1.72) and Nucor (NUE 41.58, -2.49) both posted disappointing earnings results and issued downside guidance. The announcement from UPS hasn't completely undermined transportation stocks (+0.5%), but Nucor is weighing heavily on steel stocks (-4.8%). Still, their announcements didn't do much to disrupt the positive bias seen in the early going.

Lackluster jobless claims data also did little to disrupt early optimism. Initial claims for the week ending April 18 were up from the prior week to 640,000, which is spot on with expectations. Continuing claims advanced to another record high of 6.14 million.

Stocks did turn lower, though, when existing home sales data for March hit news wires. Existing homes fell 3.0% to an annualized rate of 4.57 million. Annualized home sales for March were expected to total 4.65 million units. At the current sales pace, the supply of unsold homes increased to 9.8 months from 9.7 months.

Despite what has become broad-based weakness, financial stocks continue to trade with strength. The sector is up 1.3%, thanks to strength in diversified bank stocks (+5.6%).

The interest in bank stocks comes ahead of the Treasury's announcement regarding its measures in conducting bank stress tests, which is scheduled for tomorrow. Actual results of the stress tests are scheduled to be fully released on May 4. DJ30 -17.13 NASDAQ -7.87 SP500 -2.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 899/1.26 bln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/683 mln/1469

12:30 pm : Despite leadership from the financial sector (+1.2%), stocks continue to chop along in negative territory.

Meanwhile, gold is having a strong session, despite a slow start. Gold prices are currently up 1.7% to $906.90 per ounce. That is helping the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 89.09, +1.71) outperform the broader stock market. Gains by Yamana Gold (AUY 7.97, +0.50) are even more impressive. DJ30 -52.73 NASDAQ -11.56 SP500 -3.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 823/1.18 bln/1703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1292/640 mln/1601

12:00 pm : Despite a broad-based selling effort, financial stocks continue to sport healthy gains. The sector is now the only sector in the green as it currently trades 0.7% higher.

The financial sector's strength comes largely on the back of gains by diversified bank stocks (+5.0%). However, regional banks (-0.3%) are showing relative weakness even though PNC Financial (PNC 38.62, +0.56) and Fifth Third (FITB 3.79, +0.10) reported better-than-expected earnings results.

Action around bank stocks comes one day ahead of the Treasury's bank stress tests announcement, which is expected to offer details on the methods used in conducting the tests rather than any great detail regarding the results of the tests. The Treasury is currently scheduled to fully release the results of its stress tests on May 4. DJ30 -70.17 NASDAQ -17.12 SP500 -6.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 787/1.05 bln/1713 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1242/579 mln/1642

11:30 am : Each of the major indices recently fell to a fresh session low. Still, losses in each of the major indices remain below 1%.

However, several sectors are showing losses that exceed 1%. Telecom is down 1.7%, consumer discretionary stocks are down 1.4%, health care and tech are both down 1.2%, and industrials are down 1.0%. DJ30 -62.45 NASDAQ -15.03 SP500 -6.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/926 mln/1658 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/507 mln/1627

11:00 am : Action has been choppy thus far. Stocks started the session with solid gains, but were knocked into the red amid renewed selling pressure and have since battled to establish a clear direction.

Declines remain broad-based and financials (+0.5%) continue to be the session's best performing sector, thanks to help from specialized finance companies (+3.4%) like CME Group (CME 234.74, +15.76). Helped by expense cuts, CME reported earnings results that were in-line with analysts' expectations. Still, some investors remain concerned about the company's trading volume and contract rates, which have been challenged by macro conditions.DJ30 -50.58 NASDAQ -13.07 SP500 -5.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 781/768 mln/1621 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/418 mln/1526

10:30 am : The major stock indices are trading in mixed fashion after some disappointing existing home sales data, but the CRB Commodity Index is currently up 0.2% amid mostly firmer energy and precious metals prices.

Crude oil futures contracts are currently pricing oil 0.7% higher at $49.20 per barrel. However, natural gas futures contracts are being priced 2.8% lower at $3.43 each. Natural gas prices have come under pressure in the wake of the latest weekly natural gas inventory data, which showed a build that was in-line with expectations.

Gold contracts are pricing the yellow at $894.40 per ounce, up 0.3%, while silver contracts are pricing the stuff at $12.52 per ounce, up 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index extended its rally by closing 1.5% higher.DJ30 -7.25 NASDAQ +0.84 SP500 +0.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 927/567 mln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1449/305 mln/1262

10:00 am : Stocks have dropped precipitously following the release of March existing home sales data. Participants were hoping the data would show a pickup in sales, but that hope has been dashed.

The annualized number of existing homes sold during March fell 140,000 to 4.57 million from the prior month. Annualized home sales for March were expected to total 4.65 million units. Month-over-month, existing home sales slid 3.0%, which is a steeper downturn than the 1.5% decline that was widely expected.

The financial sector (+0.1%) and the energy sector (+0.3%) are now the only two sectors to trade with a gain.

Early movers: Trading up: LNET +81.1%, TAST +31.7%, LHO +25.9%, RCL +21.5%, ACOR +20.9%, PTV +20.9%, WGOV +20.7%, RSH +16.2%, HGRD +16.2%, NUVA +14.4%, NTGR +12.2%, CS +12.1%, HOT +11.4%, MAR +10.9%, FITB +10.3%. Trading down: VMW -17.6%, CNMD -16.3%, NCR -13.4%, QDEL -12.5%, AF -12.1%, JAKK -10.6%, BCR -10.1%, RS -10%DJ30 -47.31 NASDAQ -7.99 SP500 -1.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 821/356 mln/1383 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/198 mln/1380

09:45 am : Stocks are trading with solid gains in the first few minutes of trading. The upward move is generally broad-based as eight of the 10 major sectors sport gains; utilities (-0.2%) and health care (-1.1%) are the only two sectors in the red.

Financials are putting together the most impressive gains thus far. The sector is currently up 2.0%, thanks to strength in diversified banks (+4.9%).

Existing home sales data for March is due at the top of the hour. Surprises in the number of existing homes sold could move stocks.DJ30 +14.57 NASDAQ +6.10 SP500 +3.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1113/224 mln/978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1706/132 mln/836

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.80. A late selloff in the final hour of the prior session has failed to carry over into premarket trading. Instead, participants are bidding stocks higher ahead of the opening bell as they respond to better-than-expected earnings results from the likes of consumer-dependent companies Apple (AAPL) and eBay (EBAY), along with energy outfits ConocoPhillips (COP), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Utilities giant Exelon (EXC), regional bank PNC Financial (PNC), and medical equipment company Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) beat earnings expectations as well. Of all the companies reporting, UPS (UPS) was a standout, but for the wrong reason. UPS posted earnings results that missed analysts' expectations, and even issued downside guidance. Separately, weekly jobless claims data continue to reflect a challenging job environment. Initial claims climbed in-line with expectations, but continuing claims keep advancing to record highs.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Among the three major European bourses, Britain's FTSE is sporting the strongest gains. The FTSE is currently up 1.0% as advancing issues outnumber its decliners by 3-to-1. BP PLC (BP) is a primary leader in the FTSE after having its shares upgraded by analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is following BP's lead. Rio Tinto (RTP) continues to build on its recent gains; the stock has moved higher in each of the past three European trading sessions. Barclay's (BCS) is putting together a strong advance after the company's chairman indicated the company has no intention to raise more capital, according to Dow Jones. Meanwhile, France's CAC is up 0.8%amid strength in energy giant Total (TOT). Total's strength seems to come in sympathy to that of BP and Royal Dutch Shell. However, Germany's DAX is lagging its counterparts as it trades with a 0.1% loss. Electricity generator and distributor RWE AG is a primary laggard on the DAX, but its weakness is partly being offset by strength in shares of multinational software outfit SAP (SAP). In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained 1.4%, led by electronics companies and automakers. Those companies also helped Japan's Nikkei gain 1.4%. Honda Motor (HMC) plans to invest in electronics outfit Pioneer. Toyota Motor (TM) gained after the company reported a 27% drop in quarterly sales, and Goldman Sachs recommended the purchase of Japanese automakers shares. Financials weighed on action after reportes indicated Nomura Holdings (NMR) may post a net loss of 700 billion yen for the year. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.3% higher. Cement makers continued their strong surge after China National Building Materials said sales the first quarter climbed 72%. Financials recovered a bit with HSBC (HBC) climbing. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed just 0.1% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 totaled 640,000, which is spot on with economists' consensus estimate, but up 27,000 from the prior week. The prior week's reading was revised modestly higher to 613,000 claims. Including last week's revised data, the four-week moving average now stands at 647,500, up from 651,750. Continuing claims climbed further past the 6 million mark by totaling 6.14 million, which is up almost 100,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims were expected to total 6.12 million. Stock futures have shown little response to the data and continue leading fair value.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures are sporting a commanding lead over fair value, suggesting a markedly higher start for the major indices may be in order. The upbeat tone follows much better earnings results from Apple (AAPL) than were expected. Apple earned $1.33 per share during its most recent quarter, but analysts were expecting just $1.09 per share. The better-than-expected earnings results mark the 25th consecutive quarter in which Apple's earnings have exceeded analysts' expectations. However, Apple issued cautious guidance, in typical fashion. The company expects earnings in the current quarter to range from $0.95 to $1.00 per share, which is less than the $1.12 per share that Wall Street is currently forecasting for the quarter. Still, shares of AAPL are up 3.7% to $125.94 per share in premarket trading. eBay (EBAY) earned an adjusted $0.39 per share for its latest quarter. That was $0.05 more than the consensus estimate of $0.34 per share. eBay expects the current quarter's earnings to range from $0.34 to $0.36 per share, which brackets the $0.35 per share that analysts are currently forecasting. EBAY is up 6.6% to $15.75 per share in premarket action. UPS (UPS) posted adjusted earnings of $0.52 per share for its first fiscal quarter. That was $0.04 shy of the $0.56 per share that was widely expected. UPS compounded the offense by issuing downside guidance; the company expects second quarter earnings to range from $0.45 to $0.55 per share, which misses the $0.65 per share that is currently being forecast by analysts. UPS is down 3.0% to $53.10 per share in premarket trading. Separate earnings reports continue to hit news wires, but early participants are preparing for the latest batch of weekly jobless claims data, which is due at the bottom of the hour.

06:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80.

06:15 am : Nikkei...8847.01...+119.70...+1.40%. Hang Seng...15214.46...+336.00...+2.30%.

06:15 am : FTSE...4045.87...+15.20...+0.40%. DAX...4586.11...-8.30...-0.20%.

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