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 Post subject: April 17th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2009 4:52 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=167

My Trading Performance: +11.50 Emini ES points

---------------------------------

Stocks Extend Advance
Better-than-expected results from GE, Citi and Google help Wall Street gain on session. Stocks stretch run to 6 weeks.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 17, 2009: 4:18 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks inched higher Friday as better-than-expected earnings from Citigroup, General Electric and Google, helped stretch the recent advance to a sixth straight week.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 6 points or less than 0.1% according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 4 points or 0.5%. Both ended at more than two-month highs.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 2 points or 0.2%, ending at a more than five-month high.

Stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, have gained more than 26% in the past six weeks, on bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing. The gains followed a selloff that left the S&P 500 at a 12 1/2 year low. A rash of better-than-expected profit reports has helped sentiment this week.

The six week run is the market's best since May 2007, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"Google, Citi and GE news was all pretty decent and although we're not doing much today, we are hanging in there, which is encouraging," Detrick said.

"No matter what is thrown at the market, it seems to want to chug higher, which is a big change in psychology from last fall or even earlier this year," he said.

However, he noted that even if the rally proves to be more than a bear market bounce, at six weeks old, it's starting to look ripe for a pullback on a technical basis.

Quarterly results: Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a quarterly profit Friday morning, due to strength in its investment banking division. But after paying out preferred dividends, results amounted to a per-share loss of 18 cents. Nonetheless, that was smaller than the 34-cent per share loss analysts expected. Shares of the Dow component fell 9%.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) both reported weaker quarterly profit that beat estimates earlier this week. Last week, Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) forecast that it would report a $3 billion profit.

Regional Bank BB&T (BBT, Fortune 500) reported a weaker quarterly profit that nonetheless handily topped analysts' forecasts. The company also said loan losses are lessening. Shares gained 11%.

Dow component General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that beat estimates on weaker quarterly sales that missed forecasts. Weakness in the company's finance unit countered mixed results at other divisions. Shares gained 1%.

After the close Thursday, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) posted quarterly earnings that rose from a year ago and topped estimates on revenue that rose from a year ago but was shy of forecasts. Shares rose 1% Friday morning.

In other company news, General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) CEO Fritz Henderson said that the company will announce more job cuts and plant closings in the next few weeks. The company has until June 1 to reach agreements with its creditors and unions if it wants to avoid a government-mandated bankruptcy. Shares fell 4%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 1.4 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners three to two on volume of 1.98 billion shares.

Economy: The April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan rose to 61.9 from 57.3 in March. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought the index would rise to 58.5.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.94% from 2.83% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose 35 cents to settle at $50.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $11.90 to settle at $867.90 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Continued strength in the financial sector helped take the broader stock market markedly higher in afternoon trading, but momentum eventually slowed and stocks were left to finish with modest gains.

Buying in the financial sector followed optimistic comments from regional bank BB&T (BBT 23.42, +2.35), which essentially reassured investors that banks can still make money while building loss provisions. The comments helped regional bank stocks swing from an early loss to close the session with a 8.1% gain. BB&T also won favor for regional banks by reporting first quarter earnings of $0.48 per share, which bested the consensus estimate of $0.31 per share.

With the help of regional banks, financials were able to reverse an early loss of nearly 2% to close with a gain of 1.3% after being up more than 3% at their session high. Still, financials were able to log a weekly gain of 4.1%, which was helped along by improved commentary from several widely held companies during the past week.

Though it was a leader during the last several sessions, financial giant Citigroup (C 3.65, -0.36) was a laggard this session. The company reported a loss of $0.18 per share for the first quarter. Analysts had expected a loss of $0.34 per share. That initially provided support for Citi's stock, but buyers pushed back when the company indicated it expects second quarter charge offs to increase, and it doesn't see any reduction in credit costs from prior forecasts. Citi finished 9% lower, but still managed to gain almost 21% for the week.

Industrial giant and economic bellwether General Electric (GE 12.39, +0.12) saw its shares climb to their highest level in more than two months this session. The stock has been battling to restore investor confidence after speculation about the health of GE Capital, along with a dividend and ratings cut. GE took a step in the right direction this morning by reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share. The consensus stood at $0.21 per share.

Internet giant Google (GOOG 392.24, +3.50) brought large-cap tech stocks back into focus by unveiling record high adjusted earnings. The company brought in $5.17 per share, which topped the consensus estimate of $4.93 per share. However, Google's results failed to inspire buying in other large-cap tech stocks, which caused the tech sector to lag the broader market and close with a 0.2% loss.

Trading volume climbed to its highest level in nearly one month as almost 2 billion shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange. While volume is typically regarded as a sign of conviction, this session's volume was distorted by the expiration of stock options. DJ30 +5.90 NASDAQ +2.63 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +1.2% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +4.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1677/2.15 bln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2046/1.95 bln/987

3:30 pm : May crude oil contracts rose 1.4% to close at $50.70 per barrel. The futures contracts hit session highs early in the morning at $51.37 per barrel.

May natural gas contracts spiked higher around 10:30 ET. The contracts climbed steadily throughout the rest of the session and closed up 5% at $3.78 per contract, right at its session high.

Precious metals continued their decline from yesterday's session.

June gold ticked lower for the majority of the pit session. The gold futures recorded lows soon after the open and hit a session low of $865.60 per ounce. The June futures closed at $867.90 per ounce, down 1.4%.

Much like gold, the silver May futures contracts traded lower through most of the pit session. Silver futures closed $0.01 above their session low, down 6.0% at $11.79 per ounce. Silver futures are now down 7.8% since the close of the electronic trade on Wednesday.DJ30 +43.17 NASDAQ +7.31 SP500 +8.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1704/2.0 bln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/1.4 bln/863

3:00 pm : The major indices are giving back some of their gains. That has pushed tech stocks (-0.4%) and utilities stocks (-0.1%) back into the red. They are currently the only two sectors to trade with losses.

Financial stocks continue to show the most strength. The sector is up 2.1%. However, financials were up more than 3% at their session high.DJ30 +18.80 NASDAQ +1.97 SP500 +5.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1589/1.79 bln/1092 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2036/1.29 bln/983

2:25 pm : Stocks trade near recently reached session highs.

Reuters reports, citing sources, that the General Motors (GM 1.84, -0.10) bondholder committee is willing to make "deep concessions" if a viable plan is produced.DJ30 +37.91 NASDAQ +6.39 SP500 +7.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1641/1.58 bln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2114/1.18 bln/884

2:00 pm : Trading volume is up this session. More than 1 billion shares have already exchanged hands on the New York Stock Exchange. The heightened volume comes as participants move to exercise stock options prior to today's options expiration. DJ30 +45.16 NASDAQ +6.12 SP500 +7.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1633/1.47 bln/1034 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2127/1.11 bln/859

1:30 pm : Trading has largely been listless this session, but the financial sector is currently building on earlier gains and helping to provide a lift to the broader market. Both the financial sector and the broader stock market are at fresh session highs.

Financials are now up 2.5%, which is better than any other major sector. Consumer discretionary stocks make up the next best performing sector, but they are up only 1.0%.DJ30 +29.71 NASDAQ -0.38 SP500 +5.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1496/1.31 bln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1998/1.04 bln/966

1:00 pm : Despite better-than-expected earnings reports from a trio of heavy-hitters, stocks have spent the entire session trading in mixed fashion within a relatively narrow range.

Citigroup (C 3.84, -0.17) reported this morning a first quarter loss of $0.18 per share, which wasn't as severe as $0.34 loss per share that was widely expected. That induced buying in premarket action, but that was put in check when the company stated during its conference call that it expects second quarter charge offs to increase, and it also expects credit costs to be in-line with previous forecasts.

Regional bank BB&T (BBT 23.25, +2.18) restored confidence in financial stocks with optimistic commentary during its conference call. The company essentially lent support to the idea that banks can still make money as they build loss provisions. BB&T reported first quarter earnings of $0.48 per share, which was $0.17 better than the consensus estimate of $0.31 per share.

Financial stocks are now up 1.6% and boasting the best gains of any sector in the S&P 500. Financials were down almost 2% at their session low, which was registered in the first few minutes of trading. General Electric (GE 12.41, +0.14) also reported quarterly results this morning. Revenue for the economic bellwether was down and below expectations, but the company's earnings were better than expected, helped by a tax benefit and lower than anticipated loss provisions in the company's capital arm. GE earned $0.26 per share, while analysts had expected the company to bring in just $0.21 per share.

Internet titan Google (GOOG 391.08, +2.34) unveiled last evening record high adjusted earnings of $5.17 per share to easily top the consensus estimate of $4.93 per share. The upside surprise was largely the result of efforts to rein in spending. Google's better-than-expected results have helped the company trade with a modest gain, but they have failed to inspire buying in other large-cap tech stocks. Large-cap tech, in turn, is weighing on the Nasdaq and causing it to lag the other headline indices.DJ30 +14.74 NASDAQ -5.08 SP500 +3.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1378/1.20 bln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1853/975 mln/1086

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along. Action remains mixed amid the major indices.

According to prepared remarks for a keynote address at a financial services conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that the damange from the turn in the credit cycle is likely to be long lasting. He also stated it would be unwise to stop financial innovation.DJ30 -5.41 NASDAQ -8.72 SP500 +0.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1306/1.10 bln/1281 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/911 mln/1203

12:00 pm : Action has been choppy since the opening bell as stocks trade without clear direction. Stocks remain within a relatively narrow range even though they recently made their way back into positive ground.

Financials have been the primary driver behind the recent upturn. Financials swung from a loss of almost 2% to a gain of more than 2%, but have since pulled back to trade with a 1.6% gain. The change in bias follows commentary from regional bank BB&T (BBT 24.01, +2.94), which seemed to lend credence to the idea that banks can still make money even though they are increasing loan loss provisions.

The encouragement has helped regional banks swing to a 7.5% gain, which is helping drive a near 17% week-to-date gain. Since registering a multiyear low on March 6, regionals bank shares have surged 118%.DJ30 +10.91 NASDAQ -9.30 SP500 +1.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1251/989 mln/1306 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1710/835 mln/1207

11:30 am : A decline in prices of large-cap tech stocks is causing the Nasdaq Composite to underperform the other headline indices this session. Despite their weakness, large-cap tech has actually helped the Nasdaq Composite to fare better than either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 this year; the Nasdaq Composite is currently up 5.1% year-to-date, while the Dow and S&P 500 are showing respective losses of 7.6% and 4.3% for the year.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100, which is heavily weighted with large-cap tech holdings, is up 10.8% this year. It is down 0.8% this session, though.DJ30 -9.08 NASDAQ -12.47 SP500 -0.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/855 mln/1329 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1519/749 mln/1371

11:00 am : Tech stocks have been trading in a relatively volatile manner recently. Tech was the only sector to post a loss this past Wednesday; it had been down as much as 2.3% during that session. Tech managed to rebound Thursday and log a gain of 1.6%. However, tech is back under pressure as it trades with a 1.4% loss this session.

Microsoft (MSFT 19.20, -0.56) is a primary laggard among tech shares this session. Its weakness is being partly offset by strength in Google (GOOG 393.82, +5.08). Google posted better-than-expected earnings results after Thursday's close. DJ30 -18.79 NASDAQ -15.26 SP500 -2.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1104/724 mln/1349 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/677 ,;m/1387

10:30 am : Stocks continue to trade in mixed fashion. Action is also mixed among commodities.

Crude prices are moving higher in midmorning trade. Futures contracts recently priced oil 1.4% higher at $50.70 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are generally flat, however. Natural gas futures contracts were recently quoted at $3.60 each.

Precious metals are under stiff selling pressure for the second straight session. Gold prices are currently down 0.8% to $872.40 per ounce, while silver prices are down 2.2% to $11.98 per share.

Separately, The Baltic Dry Index gained 4.9%, extending its streak of gains to five consecutive sessions. The streak comes after the index declined for 21 straight sessions. Dryships (DRYS 6.38, +0.83) is making impressive gains after having its shares upgraded by analysts at Oppenheimer.DJ30 -7.56 NASDAQ -11.23 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/551 mln/1237 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1523/578 mln/1239

10:00 am : Action remains mixed in the first few minutes of trading; the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are evenly split between advancers and decliners.

Financials (-1.1%) continue to see the steepest losses, though the sector has pulled up from earlier levels.

Telecom is seeing the strongest gains. Telecom is up 1.2%, thanks to strength in integrated telcos (+1.3%).

Treasuries are under pressure for the second straight session. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down 10 ticks, which has lifted its yield to 2.87%.DJ30 +6.06 NASDAQ -9.47 SP500 -0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1013/375 mln/1242 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1369/477 mln/1292

09:45 am : Financials are encountering some considerable selling pressure in the first few minutes of trading. The sector is currently down 1.5% as shares of diversified banks (-2.1%) and regional banks (-2.0%) falter. The sector had been receiving some support from diversified financial services stocks, including Bank of America (BAC 10.38, +0.04) and Citigroup (C 3.86, -0.15), but their shares recently made a sudden downturn.

Citigroup's initial strength came after the company reported a loss of $0.18 per share for the first quarter. The loss wasn't quite as severe as what Wall Street had expected; the consensus forecast called for a loss of $0.34 per share.

Bank of America is scheduled to report first quarter results Monday. The consensus earnings estimate for Bank of America currently stands at $0.05 per share.

Meanwhile, the overall tone is relatively mixed.DJ30 +7.57 NASDAQ -12.47 SP500 -1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 927/278 mln/1243 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1234/409 mln/1389

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. Heading into this session, stocks have managed to climb 1.0% week-to-date. That gain has come on the back of late-session rally efforts on Wednesday and Thursday. The rallies were helped along by some short-covering. This morning's indication is that the major indices will open flat, uninspired by better-than-expected earnings results from General Electric (GE) and Google (GOOG), and a more shallow loss-than-feared from Citigroup (C). The question, then, is whether another afternoon rally will surface to help stocks close the week on a strong note.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Stock futures have drifted lower, but they continue to suggest a relatively flat start is in order for the major indices. Oil prices are garnering some support, though. Just ahead of pit trading, crude oil prices are being quoted at $50.85 per barrel, or 1.7% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. European stocks are showing strong gains, led largely by strength in shares of banks and financial services companies. Their gains follow a better-than-feared earnings report from Citigroup (C). As such, Barclays (BCS), Lloyds Group (LYG), and HSBC (HBC) are all providing leadership to the British FTSE, which is up 1.2%. Meanwhile, France's CAC is up 1.6% as a result of strength in BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. Deutsche Bank (DB) is providing the most leadership to Germany's DAX, which is up 1.2%. In Asia, The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.6% higher and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.7%. Steelmakers and tech shares surged. Toshiba gained after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss. Company officials expect the company's mainstay semiconductor business to continue to post losses in the current business year through March 2010. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.1% higher. Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) slipped after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to Neutral from Buy. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1.2% lower as energy and resource shares were hit by profit-taking.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Despite better-than-expected earnings per share results from Google (GOOG) and General Electric (GE), and a more shallow loss than expected from Citigroup (C), stock futures are mixed against fair value. Last evening Google reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $5.16 per share, which was $0.23 better than the consensus estimate of $4.93 per share. General Electric earned $0.26 per share during the first quarter; analysts expected just $0.21 per share. Meanwhile, Citigroup posted a loss of $0.18 per share, which wasn't as bad as the loss of $0.34 per share that was expected. Separately, an article from The Wall Street Journal indicates the Fed may offer long-term loans of up to five years in order to make its TALF program more appealing to investors. There are no economic reports of consequence due today, but Fed Chairman delivers a keynote speech at a financial services conference (12:00 PM ET).

06:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80.

06:24 am : Nikkei...8907.58...+152.30...+1.70%. Hang Seng...15601.27...+18.30...+0.10%.

06:24 am : FTSE...4067.61...+14.60...+0.40%. DAX...4640.31...+31.30...+0.70%.


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