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 Post subject: April 16th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:31 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=166

My Trading Performance: +7.75 Emini ES points

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Nasdaq Hits 5-Month High
The major stock gauges touch the best levels in months on JPMorgan Chase earnings. After the close, Google beats.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 16, 2009: 6:02 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street recharged the advance Thursday, with the major gauges touching multi-month highs on JPMorgan Chase's better-than-expected results and anticipation about Google's profit report.

After the close, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) posted quarterly earnings that rose from a year ago and topped estimates on revenue that rose from a year ago but was shy of forecasts. Shares slipped in after-hours trading after initially spiking.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 44 points, or 2.7%, ending at the highest point since Nov. 5, 2008.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 96 points or 1.2% and the S&P 500 (SPX) index added 13 points, or 1.6%. Both closed at their highest points since Feb. 9.

After seesawing through the morning, stocks began making a bigger move higher in the afternoon, before spiking near the close.

Stocks gained Wednesday after a Federal Reserve report on the economy added to hopes that the pace of the slowdown is easing. Such hopes have helped bolster the market for nearly six weeks. Since hitting 12-1/2 year lows on March 9, the S&P 500 has risen 25% as of Wednesday's close.

But gains this week have been minimal as investors have kept an eye on the first big batch of quarterly reports and the latest on the economy.

"The market has clearly surprised everyone to the upside and I think people have to be impressed by the way its been holding on to gains this week," said David Kreinces, portfolio manager at brokerage ETF PM.

"We should see a pretty good continuation of the rally with people buying on the dips," he said. "But that's going to depend on investors grappling with the continued weakness in housing and questions about further bank writedowns."

Friday brings quarterly results from Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), both Dow components.

Also Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is due for release shortly after the start of trading.

Company news: JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported a higher-than-expected profit of $2.1 billion, although results were weaker than a year earlier. The company benefited from strength in its investment and consumer banking divisions, but also posted $10 billion in credit costs. JPMorgan shares gained 2%.

Earlier in the week, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) also reported weaker quarterly results that nonetheless topped estimates. Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) last week forecast that it would report a $3 billion profit.

While these reports are seen as encouraging, some analysts are concerned about the fuzzy math banks are using to report results.

Nokia (NOK) reported a more than 90% drop in operating profit versus a year ago amid the global slowdown in the mobile phone market. However, results were expected to be worse and shares rallied 11.4%.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) said it will sell its U.S. car insurance business to a unit of Zurich Financial Services for $2 billion, as it begins the process of paying back the billions its received in federal aid. Shares gained 5.6%.

Economy: New home construction slumped almost 11% last month, falling to the second lowest level on record, indicating that the housing market has not yet bottomed.

March housing starts fell to an annual rate of 510,000 units versus a revised 572,000 units in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought starts would rise to 540,000 units.

Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, fell to a 513,000 annual unit rate from a revised 564,000 unit rate in the previous month. Economists expected 549,000 permits.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 610,000 last week from a revised 663,000 the previous week. Economists expected 658,000 new claims. Continuing claims, the number of people seeking benefits for a week or more, rose to 6.02 million, an all-time high.

The April Philadelphia Fed index improved to a decline of negative 24.4 from negative 35.0, versus forecasts for a reading of negative 32.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.83% from 2.76% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended mixed. European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose 73 cents to settle at $49.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $13.70 to settle at $879.80 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Despite a slow, choppy start, stocks climbed in afternoon trading and finished with healthy gains. The Nasdaq outperformed the other headline indices as shares of large-cap tech stocks rebounded from their losses in the prior session.

Tech was the only sector to finish in the red Wednesday, but it bounded back this session to close with a 3.2% gain. The sector's rebound was led by large-cap tech holdings.

Though tech's move was impressive, consumer discretionary stocks staged the best advance. The sector closed 3.4% higher as 78 of its 81 components logged gains.

Financial stocks also closed higher, but they lagged the broader market. The sector made a late rally effort, which took it to a 2.4% gain, but the move lost momentum into the close. Financials finished with a gain of 0.6%.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.24, +0.68) provided leadership to the financial sector for the entire session after the company announced first quarter earnings results of $0.40 per share, which bested the $0.32 per share that was widely expected. The company reminded investors that all isn't well just yet by reporting higher loss provisions.

Financial giant Citigroup (C 4.01, +0.68) also made strong gains. The company is scheduled to announce its latest results tomorrow morning.

Economic bellwether General Electric (GE 12.27, +0.44) also reports tomorrow morning. Interest in its shares helped send the industrial sector 2.9% higher.

In economic news, the latest jobless claims data suggest that the pace of layoffs is slowing, but that it isn't getting any easier to find work. Initial claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is down more than expected from the prior week, but continuing claims climbed more than expected to a new record of 6.02 million.

Separately, housing starts disappointed investors hoping to find signs of a recovery in home building. Housing starts for March totaled 510,000, which was below the 540,000 starts that were expected and down from the prior month. Meanwhile, building permits in March totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected, and down from February.DJ30 +95.81 NASDAQ +43.64 NQ100 +2.8% R2K +2.8% SP400 +2.7% SP500 +13.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/2.02 bln/743 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2430/1.60 bln/623

3:30 pm : Commodities traded with relative weakness this session. Gold prices dropped 1.5% to close pit trading at $879.80 per ounce, while silver prices fell 4.3% to close pit trading at $12.26 per ounce.

Energy prices were a bit mixed, though. Crude oil futures closed 1.4% higher at $49.95 per barrel, while natural gas contracts closed at $3.60 each, down 2.6%.

The CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.2%. DJ30 +116.60 NASDAQ +44.35 SP500 +16.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1946/1.91 bln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2470/1.15 bln/585

3:00 pm : Gains continue to compound as participants head into the final hour of the trading session.

The recent buying effort has been particularly kind to financial stocks. Financial stocks have swung from a gain of just 0.4% to a gain of 1.6% in the last half-hour. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.52, +0.96) remains a leader in the financial sector. DJ30 +87.77 NASDAQ +41.55 SP500 +13.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/1.70 bln/801 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2382/1.03 bln/649

2:30 pm : The major indices climb to session highs, with the tech heavy-Nasdaq leading the way.

The buying interest has been led by consumer discretionary (+2.6%) and tech (+2.4%).DJ30 +37.03 NASDAQ +29.98 SP500 +8.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/1.50 bln/948 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/910 mln/812

2:00 pm : Stocks are surrendering recent gains, which has put the Dow back into the red.

Leadership remains lacking this session, but there are a few select names that are registering strong gains.

General Electric (GE 12.08, +0.25) is up more than 2% and helping provide a lift to industrials stocks. The industrial sector is up 1.5%, but its limited market weight has made it less influential to the broader market; industrials account for roughly 10% of the S&P 500.DJ30 -1.60 NASDAQ +19.70 SP500 +2.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1488/1.36 bln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1948/824 mln/1020

1:30 pm : The Nasdaq continues to outperform its counterparts, while the Dow remains a laggard. The Nasdaq's relative strength comes as a result of renewed interest in shares of large-cap tech stocks. The Dow, on the other hand, has been weakened by a decline in shares of integrated oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM 67.05, -1.09) and Chevron (CVX 65.62, -1.08).DJ30 +16.96 NASDAQ +23.51 SP500 +5.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/1.25 bln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2029/762 mln/938

1:05 pm : Action this session has been choppy and listless, making for mixed results. However, a recent spike in buying is taking the stock market to its best level of the session.

Though not necessarily a clear-cut leader this session, the tech sector (+2.0%) has managed to garner the most interest as investors move into the space following the sector's underperformance in the prior session. Large-cap tech names like Google (GOOG 389.62, +10.12) are providing the most support to tech. Google reports its latest quarterly results this evening.

Nokia (NOK 14.69, +1.33) is also showing considerable strength. The company reported this morning better-than-expected earnings, but estimated its mobile device market share fell to 37% from 39% from the same period last year.

Financial stocks have been trading as laggards this session. Their weakness comes even though JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.40, +0.84) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results this morning. Still, income was down year-over-year amid higher loss provisions. Nonetheless, the company earned $0.40 per share, while Wall Street was looking for $0.32 per share.

Downtrodden regional bank Regions Financial (RF 6.34, +1.34) attempted to lend support to the financial sector after it indicated that it will report a profit for the first quarter. That helped regional banks reverse early losses to trade with a 2.9% gain.

Economic data did little to lift the spirits of investors. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is down from the prior week and below expectations, but continuing claims climbed to a new record of 6.02 million. These disparate readings indicate that the pace of layoffs is slowing, but that it isn't getting any easier to find a new job.

March housing starts totaled 510,000, falling short of the 540,000 starts that were expected. The worse-than-expected reading also marked a reversal the upturn that was registered last month. Building permits in March totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected, and down from February.DJ30 +25.72 NASDAQ +22.58 SP500 +5.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1562/1.41 bln/1012 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2022/703 mln/932

12:30 pm : Trading remains choppy and a clear leader has yet to emerge this session.

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated in a speech that a modest economic recovery is likely to occur in the second half of this fiscal year, but that job losses threaten consumer confidence; earlier this morning, continuing jobless claims were reported to have reached new record levels that topped 6 million.DJ30 -7.97 NASDAQ +14.01 SP500 +1.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/1.01 bln/1134 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1760/624 mln/1153

12:00 pm : Stocks are steadily ascending, but the Dow has yet to make its way back into positive ground. Nonetheless, the upward move has been broad-based.

Declines in the financial sector have been pared considerably. The sector was down 2.5% at its session low, but is now trading with a 0.9% loss. Part of the sector's upturn comes after regional bank Regions Financial (RF 6.42, +1.42) indicated as part of a regulatory filing that it will report a profit for the first quarter. Shares of RF are making their best single-session advance by percent since a 48% surge in early February.DJ30 -12.91 NASDAQ +14.36 SP500 +1.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/909 mln/1137 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1746/569 mln/1151

11:30 am : Each of the major indices has mand an upward turn, but overall action remains mixed. Trading has been choppy since the opening bell.

Large-cap stocks are holding relatively steady in positive territory, though. Thanks to strength from the likes of Apple (AAPL 120.40, +2.76), Research In Motion (RIMM 65.70, +1.80), Microsoft (MSFT 19.13, +0.30), and Google (GOOG 385.32, +5.82), the Nasdaq 100 is up 1.0%. Google reports its latest quarterly results after the closing bell.

Intel (INTC 15.42, -0.18) is undercutting some of the gains made by large-cap tech, however. The stock remains under pressure as it extends its slide from the prior session.DJ30 -26.13 NASDAQ +8.15 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/779 mln/1163 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/501 mln/1236

11:00 am : Losses have compounded to take each of the major indices to fresh session lows. Weakness is the most pronounced among financial stocks; the sector is currently down 2.4%.

The downturn among financial stocks comes amid weakness in asset management and consulting companies (-5.8%), consumer finance companies (-3.2%), and diversified banks (-2.9%). However, there are a couple of isolated names making solid gains. Currently, Citigroup (C 4.02, +0.05) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 32.63, +0.07) are both in the green and attempting to provide support to the sector. JPMorgan Chase made headlines this morning by posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings results. The company did indicate, however, that it continues building its reserves.DJ30 -54.01 NASDAQ +3.56 SP500 -3.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1196/653 mln/1241 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/428 mln/1411

10:35 am : Gold prices are falling amid selling pressure. Contracts for future delivery were recently pricing the yellow metal 1.3% lower at $881.50 per ounce. The drop in gold prices is taking shares of Yamana Gold (AUY 7.86, -0.30) and Newmont Mining (NEM 40.78, -1.52) markedly lower. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 86.26, -1.24) is also down, but to a lesser extent.

Silver prices are also under pressure. Silver is currently down 3.5% to $12.35 per ounce.

Energy prices are mixed. Crude oil futures are up 0.7% to $49.60 per barrel, but natural gas prices are down 1.1% to $3.65 per contract after weekly inventory data showed a build of 21 bcf.

The Baltic Dry Index extended its recent bounce to a fourth straight session. It closed 4.6% higher.DJ30 +4.38 NASDAQ +16.61 SP500 +2.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/482 mln/1025 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1631/325 mln/1155

10:00 am : Stocks are reclaiming their initial gains after a sudden retreat. Gainers have a 3-to-2 edge over declining issues in the S&P 500.

Airlines are seeing some of the most selling pressure this morning. The Amex Airline Index is currently down 2.1% after Southwest Air (LUV 6.80, -0.84) reported a loss of $0.03 for the first quarter. Analysts had expected Southwest to post a loss of $0.01 per share.

Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Index for April came in at -24.4, which isn't quite as bad as the -32.0 that was expected. Though the reading remains negative, it did mark an improvement from the -35.0 reading that was seen last month. DJ30 +6.22 NASDAQ +15.97 SP500 +1.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1437/315 mln/804 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/230 mln/1224

09:45 am : The major indices started the session with healthy gains, but have since been hit with a flurry of selling. That has taken the Dow and S&P 500 back toward the unchanged mark.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is holding on to a solid gain. The Nasdaq's relative strength comes as tech stocks rebound from the prior session; tech was the only sector to finish with a loss Wednesday. The sector is currently up 0.8%.

Financial stocks are seeing the steepest losses, though. Financials are currently down 1.5%.DJ30 +6.53 NASDAQ +10.28 SP500 +2.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1396/175 mln/689 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/139 mln/1100

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.80. According to stock futures, the major indices are on track for a positive start after a tepid tone earlier in the morning. Better-than-expected earnings results from Baxter International (BAX), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Nokia (NOK), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have helped support the positive bias. However, largely downbeat economic data comes as a reminder that all isn't well. Housing starts and building permits for March slid more than expected from the prior month, and jobless claims remain elevated.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.30. US. stock futures continue to trade with strength. European stocks are also trading with an upward bias. France's CAC is making an impressive 2.1% advance. Societe Generale and AXA (AXA) are the primary leaders in the French index. However, ArcelorMittal (MT) is also making headway after analysts at Credit Suisse named the company as one of their favorite cheap steel stocks. Deutsche Bank (DB) is providing leadership to Germany's DAX, which is up 1.7%, while HSBC (HBC) is helping Britain's FTSE advance 1.7%. BP PLC (BP) is also trading with strength in Britain. The shares are garnering support after the company's chairman indicated it remains the company's priority to pay dividends and grow the business. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei added 0.1%. Their gains were put in check by a disappointing GDP reading for China. That put exporters under pressure; Toyota Motor (TM), Canon (CAJ), Hitachi (HIT) all slipped. Separately, Japan may move to sell more bonds this fiscal year as part of an effort to pay for the country's third stimulus package, among other projects. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.6%. It had traded higher in early action. China Eastern Airlines (CEA) was hit after reporting a record loss for 2008. However, China Huiyuan Juice jumped amid news that other companies are courting it following Coca-Cola's (KO) failed attempt to purchase the juice maker. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.1% lower, though it did recover from the session lows it registered in the wake of reports indicating that China's economy grew 6.1% in the latest quarter. That marked the slowest pace in a decade. However, data showed a rebound in industrial output growth.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.30. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is below the 660,000 claims that were expected. Meanwhile, the prior week's reading was revised upward to 663,000. The four-week moving average now stands at 651,000, down from 657,250. Continuing claims clicked higher to 6.02 million, which marks another record high. Continuing claims were expected to come in at 5.89 million. March housing starts totaled 510,000, falling short of the 540,000 starts that were expected. The worse-than-expected reading also marked a reversal the upturn that was registered last month; February housing starts totaled 572,000. Previous reports indicated that there were 583,000 housing starts during February. Meanwhile, building permits in March totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected. Building permits for February were upwardly revised to 663,000. Stock futures have spiked on the news and now point to an upward start for the major indices.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Market participants have plenty of headlines to ponder this morning. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted first quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, which is better than the $0.32 per share that was widely expected. As of quarter's end, the company had a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 11.3%, or 9.2% when excluding TARP funds. The company reported that its investment banking arm swung to a profit after posting a loss in the same quarter last year. Shares of JPM are trading 2% lower at $31.90 per share in premarket action. Shares of other diversified banks are also seeing selling pressure ahead of the opening bell. Global mobile phone and handset giant Nokia (NOK) reported better-than-expected earnings, though its top line was a bit short of expectations. Nokia generated earnings of 0.10 euros on 9.28 billion euros of revenue. Nokia's ADRs are trading almost 8% higher at $14.40 per ADR in premarket trading. Housing starts and building permits for March are due at the bottom of the hour, along with weekly jobless claims data. Jobless claims are expected to remain elevated, but could induce a knee-jerk reaction among traders if the numbers swing dramatically in either direction. Meanwhile, an extension of the upturn seen in housing starts last month could sew the seeds of optimism for the housing sector. The Philadelphia Fed Index for April is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET), but should have little impact on trading. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Lockhart will give a speech in New York this afternoon (12:15 PM ET), and San Francisco Fed President Yellen will speak in New York this evening (7:30 PM ET). At their current level, stock futures point to a mixed start for the major indices.

06:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50.

06:15 am : Nikkei...8755.26...+12.30...+0.10%. Hang Seng...15582.99...-86.60...-0.60%.

06:15 am : FTSE...3994.23...+25.80...+0.70%. DAX...4566.39...+16.60...+0.40%.


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