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 Post subject: April 15th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2009 7:15 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=165

My Trading Performance: +13.75 Emini ES points

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Dow Stages Late 100-Point Rally
Wall Street manages gains after a Fed report adds to bets that the economy is stabilizing. Tech issues remain under pressure.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 15, 2009: 7:09 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Blue chips rallied late Wednesday, supporting the broader market, after a Federal Reserve report on the economy added to hopes that the pace of the slowdown is easing.

An unclear outlook from bellwether Intel late Tuesday kept the tech-fueled Nasdaq from posting similar gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 109 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 10 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 1 point, or 0.1%.

Tech shares dragged on the broad market, while consumer, housing, industrial and commodity shares kept losses in check.

Stocks roiled Monday and fell Tuesday in a choppy start to the week following a five-week run. The advance has been driven by bets that the pace of the recession is slowing. A Federal Reserve report released Wednesday afternoon added to those bets.

The Fed's "Beige Book" periodic reading on the economy showed that overall activity stayed weak or got worse. But five of the 12 districts showed a slowdown in the pace of decline and a few more districts showed certain parts of the economy were stabilizing.

"A lot of recent reports are showing that things might be flattening out and bottoming and the Beige Book seemed to indicate that too," said Stacey Shreft, director of investment strategy at The Mutual Fund Store. "That's good, but it's going to be important that the next set of data that come out reinforce it."

Despite some optimism about the economy, the speed of the stock rally has left Wall Street vulnerable to a bit of a pullback.

In five weeks, the Dow gained 22%, its biggest consecutive five-week run on a percentage basis since 1933, when it gained 31%. The run up followed a rout that left the Dow and S&P 500 at 12-year lows and the Nasdaq at 6-year lows.

This week, stocks have been seesawing.

"I think this is a necessary consolidation at the start of what is supposed to be one of the worst reporting periods in years," said John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments.

But he said that any consolidation this time is likely to be more modest than the selloffs that followed other big rallies over the last six months.

"Investor sentiment has been improving because there's more confidence about the financial sector," he said. "There could be a 10 or 15% selloff after the rally, but there isn't the sense of panic that would cause a 25% selloff."

Thursday preview: March reports on housing starts and building permits are due from the government before the start of trading. The weekly jobless claims report is also due before the open. The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional read on manufacturing, is due shortly after the open.

On the quarterly results front, JPMorgan Chase and Nokia report profits before the opening bell. Google reports after the close.

Economy: Economic reports Wednesday continued to support hopes that the economy is getting closer to finding its footing.

A report on consumer prices showed inflation remains a non-issue as a result of the recession. Another report showed that New York-area manufacturing weakened at a slower pace in April than in March.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Labor Department's key measure of inflation, fell 0.1% in March after rising 0.4% in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise 0.1%. The so-called Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% after climbing 0.2% in the previous month. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%.

CPI fell 0.4% over the last year, the first year-over-year decline since August 1955.

Industrial production fell 1.5% in March, after falling a revised 1.5% in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would drop 0.9%. Capacity utilization fell to 69.3% from 70.3% in the prior month. Economists thought it would fall to 69.6%.

Another report, the New York Empire State index on manufacturing activity, improved to negative 14.7 in April from negative 38.2 in March, surprising economists who were looking for a smaller improvement to negative 35.

Wednesday is also the deadline for income tax returns.

Intel: After the market close Tuesday, Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly sales and earnings that nevertheless topped expectations. The company declined to give a current-quarter forecast, but Intel's CEO said that PC sales bottomed in the first quarter. Shares fell 2.4% Wednesday.

Company news: EBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) said late Tuesday that it plans to spin off its Skype Internet telephone unit in an initial public offering next year. Shares were little changed Wednesday.

UBS (UBS) warned that it would post a big quarterly loss and cut almost 9,000 more jobs. Shares were little changed.

Dow defense and aerospace companies Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) both gained, boosting the blue-chip averages. Oil services company Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and consumer products companies Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) were the Dow's other big advancers.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was moderate. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 700 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners three to two on volume of 1.1 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices dipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.79% from 2.78% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended higher, with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei. European markets fell in afternoon trading.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $49.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped after a government report showed weekly supplies rose more than double what was expected.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $1.50 to settle at $893.50 an ounce. To top of page

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A late surge of buying interest was accompanied by a spike in trading volume, which helped all three major indices finish at their session highs.

The buying effort was largely focused on financial stocks. The sector reversed early weakness to trade with gains for the entire afternoon, but it wasn't until a surge in the final hour that financials were able to climb to their session high. Financials finished with a gain of 5.6% for the session.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 32.56, +1.86) was a primary leader in the move by financials. Interest in shares of JPM comes ahead of the company's first quarter earnings announcement, which takes place tomorrow morning.

The move by financials helped spur buying in the broader market so that nine of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the green.

Technology was the only sector to finish with a loss. It closed 0.7% lower amid weakness in shares of large-cap tech stocks like Intel (INTC 15.62, -0.39). Intel actually announced last evening better-than-expected first quarter earnings results and indicated during its conference call that a bottom has been reached in the personal computer market. Intel went on to say that the worst is behind them from an inventory and demand perspective.

Traders' decision to sell such good news comes in contrast to the trends seen in recent weeks. Nonetheless, Intel's weakness bled into other semiconductor and large-cap tech stocks. As such, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.4%.

While most large-cap tech stocks lagged, Google (GOOG 379.50, +10.59) traded with strength ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow evening. Google's strength helped lift the Nasdaq Composite out of negative territory in the final few minutes of trade, but Google's strength didn't prevent the Nasdaq from lagging its counterparts for the entire session.

Economic data did little to move investors this session. March industrial production fell a more-than-expected 1.5%, while capacity utilization came in at 69.3%.

Consumer prices for March slipped 0.1%, but core prices increased 0.2%. Economists expected a respective increase of 0.1% and an increase of 0.1%.

The Fed released its Beige Book, which didn't contain any real surprises. Though five of 12 districts reported contraction slowed last month, the bigger message is that activity still contracted. Essentially, the report fit Fed Chairman Bernanke's recent pronouncement that there are tentative signs the decline in economic activity may be slowing.DJ30 +109.44 NASDAQ +1.08 NQ100 -0.4% R2K +1.8% SP400 +1.4% SP500 +10.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1702/2.06 bln/998 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2162/1.48 bln/872

3:30 pm : This morning the DOE reported crude oil experienced a larger than expected build in inventories for the week ending April 10, which sent the May futures contracts down below the $50 level. Still, the contracts gyrated across the unchanged level for the entire session and closed at $49.10 per barrel, down less than 1%.

May natural gas futures opened the pit trade lower but broke into positive territory at midday. The contracts hit session highs of $3.75 per contract but traded lower thereafter to close nearly unchanged, up $0.046 to $3.735 per contract.

Precious metals experienced a rather uneventful pit trade.

June gold traded in a tight range around the unchanged mark this session and closed up 0.2% at $893.50 per ounce.

May silver futures opened pit trade slightly higher but traded down following the open. The silver futures contracts finished up less than $0.01 at $12.80 per ounce.DJ30 +44.52 NASDAQ -16.13 SP500 +2.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1428/1.7 bln/1246 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1839/1.1 bln/1175

3:00 pm : Stocks appear to be stuck in a bit of a rut this afternoon. However, financial stocks and consumer staples stocks have been able to hold up relatively well.

Financials are currently up 1.9%. Though they are down from their earlier gain of 2.4%, financials remain well above the loss of some 2% that they saw in the early going.

Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks are up 0.9%. Consumer staples stocks were up as much as 1.4% earlier. DJ30 +13.78 NASDAQ -24.30 SP500 -0.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1344/1.50 bln/1304 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1699/951 mln/1299

2:30 pm : The major indices have fallen to fresh afternoon lows, but continue to trade in mixed fashion overall.

Despite a lack of clear direction in the broader market, airlines are trading with considerable strength. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is currently up 1.7%.DJ30 +6.45 NASDAQ -19.93 SP500 -1.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/1.37 bln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/864 mln/1325

2:00 pm : The stock market has pulled back a bit and is now trading just above the unchanged mark.

The Fed just released its Beige Book. It indicates overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. Five of the 12 districts reported a moderation in the pace of decline, however. It also indicated that home prices and home building are still falling, but there have been scattered pickups in some districts.DJ30 +32.58 NASDAQ -12.62 SP500 +0.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1469/1.26 bln/1166 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1767/785 mln/1203

1:30 pm : Health care stocks have surrendered recent gains to trade with a 0.2% loss. Big pharma stocks are at the center of the tug-of-war as Pfizer (PFE 13.74, +0.40) and Merck (MRK 13.74, +0.40) provided support to the sector, but weakness in Abbott Labs (ABT 41.94, -2.77) offsets their strength.

Abbott's downturn comes in the face of a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report, which was released this morning. The company also offered an in-line outlook.DJ30 +53.84 NASDAQ -8.80 SP500 +3.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1536/1.16 bln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1858/724 mln/1102

1:05 pm : After starting the session in negative ground the Dow and S&P 500 are trading with respectable gains, but the Nasdaq Composite remains hampered by a concerted selling effort against large-cap tech stocks.

The Nasdaq has lagged the other headline indices this entire session. The negative bias came about after Intel (INTC 15.39, -0.62) announced its latest quarterly results, which were actually quite solid and featured better-than-expected earnings results. Intel even indicated during its conference call that a bottom has been reached in the personal computer market and that the worst is behind them from an inventory and demand perspective.

Traders' decision to sell such good news has spread from semiconductors to other large-cap tech stocks. As such, the Nasdaq 100 is currently down 1.3%, while tech (-1.3%) is the only major sector to trade in negative territory.

Financials have emerged to trade with the best gains of any sector. Financials are currently up 1.8%, thanks to leadership from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 31.82, +1.12). JPMorgan reports its first quarter results tomorrow morning. While overall expectations for banks remains relatively low, the bar has been raised in the wake of an upbeat preannouncement from Wells Fargo (WFC 18.75, +0.48) and strong results from Goldman Sachs (GS 119.55, +4.44).

The industrial sector (+1.9%) is also putting together a strong advance as investors bid shares of General Electric (GE 11.88, +0.37) higher ahead of its quarterly report. GE is scheduled to report its latest quarterly results Friday morning.

March industrial production fell 1.5%, which is worse than the 0.9% decline that was expected. Capacity utilization came in at 69.3%, which is in-line with expectations. The report overall is quite simply bad economic news and continues to reflect a weak demand environment that is going to help keep prices in check. At the consumer level, prices in March slipped 0.1%, but core prices increased 0.2%. Economists expected a respective increase of 0.1% and an increase of 0.1%.

Separately, the Fed's Beige Book is due at 2:00 PM ET.DJ30 +67.86 NASDAQ -9.80 SP500 +4.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/1.07 bln/1061 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1886/667 mln/1074

12:30 pm : This session's tone is improving as advancing issues now outnumber declining issues in the S&P 500 by 3-to-2; that has helped lift the index into the green.

Moreover, eight of the 10 major sectors comprising the S&P 500 are showing gains. Only the technology (-1.6%) and consumer discretionary (-0.3%) sectors are in the red.

The best gains are being had by the industrial sector. Thanks to leadership from General Electric (GE 11.88, +0.37), industrial stocks are up 1.7%. The economic bellwether is scheduled to report its latest quarterly results Friday morning.DJ30 +46.59 NASDAQ -16.26 SP500 +1.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/953 mln/1121 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1767/596 mln/1168

12:00 pm : Financial stocks have reversed their losses to trade with a solid 0.6% gain. The upturn comes amid strength in diversified banks (+1.9%).

Specifically, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 31.33, +0.63) is providing the most leadership to the sector. Investors are bidding the company's shares higher ahead of its first quarter earnings announcement, which is scheduled for tomorrow morning. JPMorgan raised investors' expectations for the first quarter when the company's management indicated that it had been profitable during the first two months of the year. Those expectations were partly put in check, though, when CEO Jamie Dimon stated in a CNBC interview late last month that March had been a little tougher than prior months.DJ30 +41.18 NASDAQ -15.01 SP500 +2.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/864 mln/1149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/540 mln/1157

11:40 am : Shares of retailers are seeing considerable selling pressure for the second straight session. The group is currently down 1.7% this session, but down 4.2% during the course of the past two sessions.

Semiconductors are also grappling with a concerted selling effort in the wake of Intel's (INTC 15.32, -0.69) latest quarterly announcement, which was actually quite upbeat. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is currently down 2.9%, more than any of the headline indices. Micron (MU 4.35, +0.05) is the only company listed in the semiconductor index to trade with a gain.DJ30 +10.35 NASDAQ -20.41 SP500 -1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1217/734 mln/1213 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1539/461 mln/1326

11:00 am : Stocks are back on the slide as selling pressure cuts short a recent upturn by the major indices.

The reversal has taken the S&P 500 back into the red, while the blue chip Dow pauses at the unchanged mark. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq continues to trade with considerable weakness and is back near session lows.

Despite the recent downturn, overall action is mixed. Among the major sectors within the S&P 500, six are in the green.DJ30 +4.78 NASDAQ -18.39 SP500 -2.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/620 mln/1136 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/390 mln/1290

10:30 am : Crude prices have pulled back in the wake of the latest weekly inventory data. According to the Dept. of Energy, crude inventories for the week ending April 10 showed a build of 5.67 million barrels. Crude prices are now up just 0.2% to $49.50 per barrel. Prices were were up roughly 1.2% in the few minutes leading up to the weekly inventory report.

Natural gas prices are trading in the red, however. Futures contracts for natural gas delivery are being priced 1.1% lower at $3.65 each.

Meanwhile, gold prices are up 0.4% to $894.50 per ounce, and silver prices are fractionally lower to $12.76 per ounce.

The CRB Commodity Index is up just 0.1%.

Separately, the Baltic Dry Index extended its recent bounce by gaining 2.3%. The move came as part of a collective effort from each of the subindices, all of which advanced.DJ30 +22.54 NASDAQ -8.85 SP500 +0.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1382/491 mln/955 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1662/322 mln/1147

10:00 am : The Dow and S&P 500 have moved into positive territory. The Nasdaq continues to trade with marked weakness.

Tech stocks continue to see the most selling pressure in the early going. The technology sector is currently down 1.4%.

Consumer staples stocks are garnering strong interest, however. The conumer staples sector is trading with a 1.0% gain, thanks largely to strength in Procter & Gamble (PB 48.14, +0.89). P&G's board declared a 10% increase to the company's quarterly common stock dividend, which lifts it to $0.44 per share from $0.40 per share. The increase marks the fifth time in as many years that the company hiked its dividend by at least 10%.

Early movers: Trading up: IP +20.2%, PJC +14.3%, WATG +10.7%, HCSG +9.9%, SMI +8.6% Trading down: INFI -38.6%, RJF -20%, BCTY -18.9%, BKC -16.4%, LUFK -14.2%, SKYW -13.9%, NCTY -10.7%, BTU -10.4%, FSC -10.1%DJ30 +23.73 NASDAQ -13.65 SP500 +0.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/297 mln/1027 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/207 mln/1126

09:45 am : All three of the major indices are trading in the red, but sellers are focusing their efforts on large-cap tech stocks. That has the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 down 1.0%; Intel (INTC 15.20, -0.81) is a primary laggard in each index even though the company posted better-than-expected earnings results for its latest quarter and offered upbeat comments during its conference call.

Yahoo! (YHOO 13.90, -0.17) is also showing weakness. According to New York Times, the company is planning a new round of layoffs, which could affect several hundred employees. The article noted the announcement could be made as early as next week when the company reports its latest quarterly results. DJ30 -11.63 NASDAQ -16.35 SP500 -1.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 909/182 mln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/144 mln/1396

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Stock futures suggest a lower start for the major U.S. indices. The downward bias comes as an extension of the negative tone seen in the prior session. Sellers are putting considerable pressure on shares of Intel (INTC), even though the company posted a strong quarterly report that was highlighted by better-than-expected earnings results. The move to sell the good news comes in contrast to broader trends of recent weeks, but it isn't the first time such a scenario has been seen; just yesterday sellers moved against Goldman Sachs (GS) after the company posted handsome earnings results. However, Goldman did price a dilutive common stock offering at a discount to the stock's prior trading price. According to the latest batch of economic data, consumer prices in March slipped 0.1%, but core prices increased 0.2%. Economists expected a respective increase of 0.1% and an increase of 0.1%. Just hitting news wires, March industrial production for March was down 1.5%, which is below the 0.9% decline that was expected. Capacity utilization for March came in at 69.3%, which is in-line with expectations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.50. Stock futures continue to suggest that a lower start is in order for the major U.S. indices. Early sentiment is receiving little encouragement from traders on the other side of the ocean. Germany's DAX is leading losses in Europe. The German bourse is currently down XX% as investors pushback on shares of Deutsche Bank (DB) after sending the stock more than 15% higher during the course of the past two sessions. Commerzbank is also showing weakness. French financial stocks are also being hit, which is dragging the CAC to a XX% loss. BNP Paribas and AXA (AXA) are the primary laggards in the French index, but shares of Societe Generale are also under pressure. However, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is helping offset some of this session's weakness. A Dow Jones report indicated the company's move to acquire privately held BiPar Sciences will help bolster Sanofi's drug pipeline. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical developer and manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) is providing a boon to Britain's FTSE, which is still down XX%. HSBC (HBC) is a primary laggard in the FTSE, but a collective weakness among metals and mining stocks weighing heavily on the index. Shares of BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Xstrata are all trading in the red after a Reuters reported Rio Tinto's first quarter output fell more than expected amid weak demand. Rio Tinto also recently priced a $2.0 billion offering of 5-year Notes with a 8.95% coupon and a $1.5 billion offering of Notes with a 9.00% coupon. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.5%, which marked its first drop in five days. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei shed 1.1% as exporters fell on the weak U.S. retail sales data and a stronger yen. Canon (CAJ), Sony (SNE), and Hitachi (HIT) all declined. Financials were also under pressure as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) and Mizuho Financial (MFG) slid. Top brokerage outfit Nomura (NMR) also declined. Pharmaceuticals bucked the negative trend as Astellas Pharma and Takeda Pharmaceutical gained. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.6% higher after reversing early losses. Shipping stocks extended their winning streak on expectations global trade will bounce back in the coming months as China's demand rebounds. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite added 0.4% in heavy trading volume.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. Consumer prices for March decreased 0.1% month-over-month, which is less than the 0.1% increase that was widely forecast, and down from the prior reading's 0.4% monthly increase. Core consumer prices increased 0.2% month-over-month; like the headline reading, core prices were expected to increase by a modest 0.1%. Core prices for February had increased 0.2% as well. Separately, the April Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -14.7, improved from the prior reading of -38.2 and better than the -35.00 reading that was expected.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00. Stock futures currently point to a downward start for the major indices. Semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC) announced last evening first quarter earnings of $0.11 per share, which bested the consensus estimate of $0.03 per share. During its conference call, Intel indicated that it expects second quarter business conditions to mirror those of the first quarter; the company offered an in-line revenue outlook for the second quarter. Intel also stated that a bottom in the personal computer market has been reached and that they believe the worst is now behind them from an inventory correction and demand perspective. Despite the upbeat tone of the report, INTC is trading roughly 4% lower at $15.38 per share in premarket action. Rail carrier CSX (CSX) announced better-than-expected first quarter results of its own; the company generated $0.62 per share, while analysts were looking for just $0.51 per share. CSX indicated that lower volume stemmed from weakness in industrial production, housing starts, and consumer spending. Abbott Labs (ABT) announced this morning adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share, which is $0.03 better than the $0.70 per share consensus estimate. Abbott also issued in-line guidance. Its shares were quoted almost 5% lower at $42.56 per share ahead of the opening bell. March Consumer Price Index data is due at the bottom of the hour; economists expect the CPI to increase 0.1% after a 0.4% increase in February.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50.

06:18 am : Nikkei...8742.96...-99.70...-1.10%. Hang Seng...15669.62...+89.50...+0.60%.

06:18 am : FTSE...3989.29...+0.30...0.00. DAX...4536.08...-21.70...-0.50%.


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