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 Post subject: April 14th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:23 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=164

My Trading Performance: +5.50 Emini ES points

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Triple-Digit Selloff on Dow
Wall Street retreats on weaker-than-expected economic news, while Goldman Sachs and J&J report surprisingly better quarterly results.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 14, 2009: 5:53 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Tuesday, after a weaker-than-expected retail sales report gave investors a reason to retreat following a five-week run.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 137 points, or 1.7%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 17 points, or 2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 27 points, or 1.7%.

Stocks have been on the rise for five straight weeks on bets that the worst for the economy and financial sector has already happened. But with consumer spending a big driver of the economy, the weak retail sales report caused fresh concern among investors.

"The retail sales report was a factor, but I also just think the market had to breathe a little bit after the run we've seen," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

Stocks were already vulnerable to a retreat after the recent rally lifted the Dow 22%. It was the blue-chip barometer's best five-week run since May 1933, when it gained 31%.

The advance followed a downturn that left the Dow and S&P 500 at more than 12-year lows, as of March 9.

Kiddoo said that those lows will likely withstand further selloff attempts, but that supposed market bottoms made in the fall proved to be false floors.

"It seems like this time is different because you're seeing a little better attitude now," he said. "Most of the people who were going to bail, have bailed already."

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) reported a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report late Monday, making it the second financial firm to surprise to the upside. But investors sent shares lower nonetheless, with the stock having spiked 54% year-to-date prior to the Monday announcement.

Last week, Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) forecast a nearly $3 billion quarterly profit.

Wednesday preview: After the close, Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly sales and earnings that topped expectations. The company's chief executive also said that he thinks PC sales bottomed in the first quarter and that the industry is returning to "normal seasonal patterns."

Wednesday morning brings government reports on consumer prices, industrial production and capacity utilization and weekly energy supplies. In the afternoon, the Fed releases its "Beige Book" a periodic reading on the economy. Wednesday is also the deadline for income tax returns.

Retail sales: Retail sales fell 1.1% in March after rising a revised 0.3% in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales would rise 0.3%. Sales excluding volatile autos rose 0.9% after jumping a revised 1% in the previous month. Economists thought sales would be unchanged.

The retail sales report underscores the volatility of the data right now, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.

"The consumer fell out of bed at the end of last year, we had a bounce in January, February didn't do much and March was bad," he said. "But why expect the consumer to have suddenly recovered when the economy hasn't yet recovered?"

Economy: In addition to retail sales, reports were released on wholesale inventories and business inventories.

The Producer Price index (PPI) fell 1.2% in March after rising 0.1% in the previous month. Economists expected PPI to be unchanged. The so-called "core" PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged after rising 0.2% in the previous month. Economists thought it would increase 0.1%.

February business inventories fell 1.3% after falling 1.3% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought inventories would fall 1.2%.

In other news, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that there are "tentative signs" that the economy's slide is slowing, but that a full recovery won't come until the financial sector stabilizes.

President Obama spoke Tuesday about his administration's efforts to stabilize and recharge the economy. He warned about unpopular choices when it comes to restructuring the auto industry and American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500).

Results: Goldman Sachs released better-than-expected quarterly profits late Monday, earning $3.39 per share on revenue of $9.43 billion. The company also said it plans to raise $5 billion through a stock offering to be used toward paying back its $10 billion government loan. Shares fell 11.6% Tuesday.

Other financial shares slipped too, sending the KBW Bank (BKX) index down 8.1%.

On Tuesday morning, Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that nonetheless topped estimates. Shares were little changed.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by more than seven to three on volume of 1.75 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers two to one on volume of 2.29 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.78% from 2.82% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended higher, with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell 64 cents to settle at $49.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $3.80 to settle at $892 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Participants put an end to a three session streak of gains by sending stocks 2% lower Tuesday. The downward push came as financial stocks fell out of favor and disappointing retail sales data led some to second guess the prospects of retailers.

Financial stocks weighed on the broader market for the entire session and finished with a 7.7% loss. The sector's weakness was widespread, but investment banks and brokerages (-10.7%) suffered some of the steepest declines after Goldman Sachs (GS 115.92, -14.23) announced a $5 billion common equity offering that was discounted from the prior session's closing price. The offering will also prove dilutive to existing shareholders, but is intended to help repay TARP funds.

Goldman did manage to generate strong trading results, which helped it overcome weakness in its investment banking and consulting arm. That helped the company post better-than-expected earnings results.

A better-than-expected earnings announcement and a reaffirmed outlook from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 51.37, +0.22) helped health care stocks fend off most of the session's selling effort, though shares of JNJ inevitably closed near their session low. Health care closed 0.3% lower, but was still the best performing sector this session.

Due to widespread weakness, nearly 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished lower. Sellers were particularly unkind to small- and mid-cap stocks as the Russell 2000 fell 3.2% and the S&P 400 dropped 2.6%. Both indices posted declines in each of the past two sessions, but are still up 15.3% and 14.3%, respectively, in the past month.

Shares of retailers fell 2.5% this session after data showed retail sales for March declined 1.1%, which is worse than the 0.3% increase that was expected. That caused a number of investors to second guess the recent run seen in retail stocks; retailers climbed more than 4% last week and almost 6% the week before.

In other economic news, producer prices for March declined 1.2% month-over-month. Economists had expected the index to remain flat after a monthly increase of 0.1% in February. Core producer prices were flat month-over-month, which was relatively in-line with the 0.1% increase that was widely expected. February core PPI had increased 0.2% month-over-month.

Meanwhile, February business inventories decreased 1.3%, which is generally in-line with the 1.2% decline that was expected. Inventories also decreased 1.3% in the prior month.DJ30 -137.63 NASDAQ -27.59 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -3.2% SP400 -2.6% SP500 -17.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 867/1.43 bln/1850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 932/1.21 bln/2111

3:30 pm : The stock market recently pulled back from afternoon highs.

May crude oil traded in a range between $48.85 and $51.12 per barrel on the session. The futures contracts closed down 1.3% at $49.41 per barrel.

May natural gas contracts hit their session low in the morning but traded in positive territory for the rest of the session after crossing the break even level shortly after 10:00 ET. The futures contracts rallied into the close and finished just below their session highs at $3.70 per contract, up 1.9%.

Both gold and silver finished the session relatively unchanged.

June gold contracts traded for most of the session in the red. The gold futures contracts finished the session at $895.00 per ounce, down 0.4%.

May silver futures finished the session less than $0.01 lower at $12.77 per ounce. The contracts traded in the red for most of the session. They hit session lows at 10:00 ET of $12.55 per ounce but were able to rally into the close. DJ30 -120.75 NASDAQ -21.64 SP500 -13.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 899/1.9 bln/1812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1038/1.3 bln/1997

3:00 pm : Trading has turned a bit choppy as participants enter the final hour of trading. Weakness has been relatively persistent, but each of the major indices are making a sudden, upward move to register their best levels of the afternoon.DJ30 -118.51 NASDAQ -24.46 SP500 -14.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 853/1.70 bln/1833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 981/1.15 bln/2045

2:30 pm : Stocks have pulled up from session lows, but losses remain broad and sizable. However, the health care sector has made its way into the green; health care stocks are now up 0.1%.

Health care stocks are finding support from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 51.87, +0.72), which beat quarterly earnings expectations.

Tenet Healthcare Group (THC 1.38, +0.23) is seeing some of the most interest among health care plays. Its shares are up roughly 20% as the stock extends its winning streak to three straight sessions.DJ30 -112.30 NASDAQ -25.35 SP500 -13.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 857/1.59 bln/1814 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1007/1.08 bln/2006

2:00 pm : Fed Chairman Bernanke is giving a speech at Morehouse College regarding the financial crisis. His prepared remarks hit news wires earlier today; they indicated that tentative signs suggest the economic downturn may be slowing.

Oil prices have faltered in afternoon trading. Crude oil futures contracts prices showed modest strength in the early going, but are now pricing oil 1.8% lower at $49.15 per barrel.

However, gold prices were able to recover from earlier levels. Gold was down 0.7% in the first hour of pit trading, but finished its session with a 0.4% loss at $892.20 per ounce. Electronic trading recently priced gold at $893.00 per ounce.DJ30 -131.10 NASDAQ -29.37 SP500 -16.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/1.45 bln/1845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 912/992 mln/2094

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade near their session lows. Roughly 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 are now in the red.

Weakness in financial stocks has undermined the broader market for the entire session. Financials are currently down 5.6% with some of the worst performances being exhibited by regional banks (-6.3%), consumer finance outfits (-7.1%), and investment banks and brokerages (-8.2%).

The downturn by stocks has made Treasuries more appealing to traders. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up 21 ticks to trade near its best levels of the session.DJ30 -134.52 NASDAQ -31.28 SP500 -16.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 775/1.34 bln/1855 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 885/914 mln/2103

1:05 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session trading in negative territory. The downward bias comes as Goldman Sachs announces a common equity offering and retail sales data post a surprise decline.

Financial stocks (-5.5%) have been under pressure since the opening bell, and have since led losses in the broader market. The sector's downturn comes amid a $5 billion common equity offering from Goldman Sachs (GS 118.43, -11.72). Though the offer was widely expected, investors are nonetheless displeased since it will prove dilutive and is priced at a discount relative to the stock's prior session closing price. The announcement has overshadowed the company's better-than-expected earnings results.

Despite a concerted move against financials (74 of the 80 financial companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses), Citigroup (C 4.05, +0.25) is making continued gains, trading up as much as 18%. It has since pulled back to trade with a near 7% gain.

A better-than-expected earnings announcement and a reaffirmed outlook has helped Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 51.62, +0.47) trade with strength and provide support to the health care sector. Health care stocks are still down 0.5%, but they are holding up better than any other major sector.

Selling pressure has intensified in the last few minutes, taking each of the major indices to fresh session lows. The broad-based decline has taken the Dow Jones Transportation Index to a loss of 0.9%. It had been up nearly 1.0%; as participants responded to J.B. Hunt's (JBHT 27.17, +0.48) better-than-expected quarterly results.

Semiconductors had also been trading with strength in the early going. Semiconductors were up more than 2%, but have since fallen to a 1.4% loss. Industry bellwether Intel (INTC 15.87, -0.11) reports its latest quarterly results after this session's close.

A relatively disappointing batch of economic data has only weighed on sentiment this session. Retail sales data showed a surprise decrease for March, which isn't good economic news, though it fits with weak employment data. It is a setback that is apt to cause a number of investors to second guess the big run seen in the retail stocks, which are currently down 2.4%.

In other economic news, producer prices made a surprise decline, but core producer prices were generally in-line with expectations.

Meanwhile, February business inventories decreased 1.3%, which is generally in-line with the 1.2% decline that was expected. DJ30 -139.46 NASDAQ -31.19 SP500 -16.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 799/1.23 bln/1839 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/845 mln/2066

12:30 pm : Sellers continue to control the action. All three major indices are down in excess of 1%.

The Nasdaq had been holding up against the selling effort better than either of its counterparts, but as sellers redoubled their efforts the Nasdaq fell to a fresh session low. Its losses are now in-line with those of the Dow and the S&P 500.DJ30 -87.21 NASDAQ -19.65 SP500 -10.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/1.09 bln/1703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1139/756 mln/1808

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with losses. The downward bias has been most unkind to to small- and mid-cap stocks; the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is off by 1.9%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is down 1.4%.

Within the Russell 2000, more than 75% of the companies are trading with a loss. Talbots (TLB 3.49, -1.08) is the primary laggard after reporting a loss for the latest quarter.

Meanwhile, declining issues in the S&P 400 outnumber advancing issues by 3-to-1. Fidelity National (FNF 20.27, -2.33) and Commerce Bancshares (CBSH 35.20, -4.05) are the primary laggards in the index.DJ30 -78.29 NASDAQ -17.01 SP500 -8.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 904/992 mln/1656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/677 mln/1807

11:30 am : After pulling up from earlier lows, the major indices are retracing their losses. The downturn has taken all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 back into the red.

Despite the broad-based weakness, there are a couple of relative strong spots.

Transportation stocks are garnering positive interest after J.B. Hunt (JBHT 27.97, +1.28) posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Increased confidence in the industry has the Dow Jones Transportation Index up 0.6%.

Semiconductors had been trading with a solid gain, but recently fell into the red as selling pressure in the broader market intensified. While semiconductors are now down 0.1%, the group is still holding up better than the broader market. The relative strength of semiconductors comes ahead of Intel's (INTC 15.99, +0.01) latest quarterly report, which hits news wires this evening. DJ30 -70.01 NASDAQ -16.35 SP500 -7.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 886/869 mln/1639 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/599 mln/1752

11:00 am : The major indices have trimmed their losses, but stocks continue to trade with relative weakness; declining issues in the S&P 500 outnumber advancers by roughly 3-to-2.

Meanwhile, action in the commodities trade has been a bit mixed this session. The CRB Commodity Index is up just 0.1%.

Crude oil prices are currently up a modest 0.1% to trade at $50.10 per barrel, according to futures contracts.

Natural gas prices are up just 0.6% to $3.65 per contract.

Gold is under a bit of pressure. Futures contracts price gold 0.7% lower at $888.10 per ounce. Silver is also trading lower; it was recently quoted at $12.65 per ounce, down 0.9%.

The Dry Bulk Index started the shortened trading week on a positive note, closing 0.9% higher. All subindices gained.DJ30 -50.10 NASDAQ -6.75 SP500 -4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1027/692 mln/1424 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1329/490 mln/1531

10:30 am : Casino and gaming stocks are seeing strong interest as Wynn Resorts (WYNN 33.31, +1.87), Las Vegas Sands (LVS 5.63, +0.42), and MGM Mirage (MGM 7.17, +0.92) all rally. Favor for the group was found after MGM announced it has received bank support to fund 100% of current construction costs for its CityCenter.

Still, shares of the aforementioned casino and gaming companies are still down sharply this year. WYNN has shed roughly one quarter of its market cap this year, LVS is down 12% year-to-date, and MGM's stock price has been halved since the start of the year. Much of the pessimism surrounding the shares stems from softer consumer spending and tighter credit conditions.DJ30 -43.65 NASDAQ -4.88 SP500 -3.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 934/537 mln/1450 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/393 mln/1573

10:00 am : The major indices continue to trade well into negative territory, but the Nasdaq is working to pare its losses and is holding up relatively well against this session's early selling effort.

In recent sessions the Nasdaq has received most of its support from large-cap tech holdings, but the mix of leaders has changed a bit this session as Express Scripts (ESRX 58.50, +1.69) and Dendreon (DNDN 20.25, +12.95) emerge with strength.

Gains in shares of Express Scripts come as a continuation of their strength in the prior session, which was driven by its decision to acquire the NetRx subsidiaries from WellPoint (WLP 41.95, -1.63).

Meanwhile, Dendreon is skyrocketing after announcing that one of its drugs improved the survival of men with advanced forms of prostate cancer.

Just hitting the news wires, February business inventories decreased 1.3%, which is generally in-line with the 1.2% decline that was expected. Inventories were also down 1.3% the month before.

Early movers: Trading up: DNDN +168.2%, MIC +20.2%, MGM +18.1%, NM +10.1%, EGLE +9.9% Trading down: TLB -24.5%, BDD -15.4%, GCI -14.3%, HSVLY -11.7%, MSCC -11.2%, CTCM -10.5%, FNF -10.2%, SPAR -10.2%DJ30 -92.15 NASDAQ -8.60 SP500 -8.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 786/642 mln/1527 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 871/277 mln/1845

09:45 am : The major indices are under pressure as a broad-based selling effort takes hold. The downturn is most severe in the financial sector, which is currently off by 2.9%.

Weakness in the financial sector follows a disappointing announcement from Goldman Sachs (GS 122.27, -7.88). Even though Goldman topped the consensus first quarter earnings estimate with relative ease, investors are pushing back after the company opted to price a $5 billion common equity offering at $123.00 per share. The offering will prove dilutive to existing shareholders and is roughly 5.5% below the prior session's closing price. That has investors selling the headline after watching the stock climb more than 13% in the two sessions leading up to yesterday's close.

The weakness in Goldman's shares has investment banks and brokerages down 6.0%. Diversified banks (-5.5%) and consumer finance companies (-4.6%) are also showing sizable losses.DJ30 -124.41 NASDAQ -17.38 SP500 -13.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 569/212 mln/1661 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 521/191 mln/2143

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. Stock futures have drifted lower and now point to a lower start for the major indices. The weakened tone comes in the wake of some disappointing retail sales data, which showed a surprise decrease for March. March producer prices also showed surprise declines, but core producer prices were generally in-line with expectations. Business inventory data is due at 10:00 AM ET. Better-than-expected earnings announcements from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) offered to lend support to the early bias, but news that Goldman is pricing a dilutive $5 billion common equity offering at $123 per share, according to CNBC, is countering investor interest. Meanwhile, overseas action is generally mixed following an extended weekend.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.50. Trading in Europe has resumed after an extended holiday weekend. Banks and financial services companies are providing the most leadership. The German DAX is leading gains as it climbs 0.8%, thanks to strength in Deutsche Bank (DB). Commerzbank is also trading with strength. Financials are also helping France's CAC, which is up 0.3%. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, and AXA (AXA) are currently the primary leaders in the CAC. Total (TOT) is trading as a laggard, though. According to an article in The Wall Street Journal, Total is in advanced negotiations with China and Venezuela regarding a multibillion dollar oil production and refining venture. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is lagging the other headline indices as it trades 0.4% lower. Global finanical giant HSBC (HBC) is the primary leader in Britain, but Lloyds Banking (LYG) and Barclays (BCS) are also lending support. Reports yesterday indicated that Barclays is understood to be examining offers for the whole of its Global Investors business as it shops for offers to rival that of CVC. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.1% higher, led by banks. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.9% as auto stocks fell amid worries regarding General Motors (GM). Toyota Motor (TM), Honda Motor (HMC), and Nissan Motor (NSANY) fell. Bank stocks gained, though. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group advanced. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng gained 4.6%, lifted by hopes for stabilization in the financial sector and reassuring data from China. HSBC led the charge after Goldman Sachs (GS) reported better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter. New monthly loans in China increased almost 30% from the prior year to hit a record high last month as the money supply swelled, raising expectations for an early recovery in the mainland's economy. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.5%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. The Producer Price Index for March decreased 1.2% month-over-month. Economists had expected the index to remain flat after a monthly increase of 0.1% in February. Meanwhile, core PPI was flat month-over-month, which was relatively in-line with the 0.1% increase that was widely expected. February core PPI had increased 0.2% month-over-month. Year-over-year, producer prices decreased 3.5%, which is steeper than the 2.2% decline that was expected, and down from the 1.3% annual decline registered in February. Core producer prices for March increased 3.8% year-over-year, which wasn't as sharp as the 4.0% increase that was expected. Core prices for February had increased 4.0% year-over-year. Advance Retail Sales for March showed a decrease of 1.1%, which is far from the 0.3% increase that was widely expected. Meanwhile, the February reading was revised upward to reflect an increase of 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales for March were down 0.9% month-over-month. They were expected to be flat after a monthly increase of 1.0% in February. Stock futures continue to suggest a flat start is in order for the major indices.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) are trading roughly 2.5% lower at $126.87 per share in premarket action. The relative weakness comes in the wake of the company's first quarter announcement, which featured earnings of $3.39 per share. The consensus estimate had been set at $1.60 per share. While the company's earnings results were certainly pleasing, they are being overshadowed by the company's decision to issue a $5 billion public offering of common equity, which will prove dilutive to existing shareholders. Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted first quarter results of $1.26 per share, which bested the $1.22 per share consensus estimate. J&J also reaffirmed its outlook for 2009; the company expects earnings to range from $4.45 to $4.55 per share this year, while Wall Street is expecting $4.49 per share. Shares of JNJ are up roughly 1.5% to $51.91 per share in premarket trading. The March Producer Price Index and March Advance Retail Sales Report are due at the bottom of the hour. Prior to their release, Dow Jones reported Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that there are tentative signs the economic decline may be slowing and that he is fundamentally optimistic about the economy. Stock futures currently point to a flat start for the broader market.

06:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.80.

06:33 am : Nikkei...8842.68...-81.80...-0.90%. Hang Seng...15580.16...+678.80...+4.60%.

06:33 am : FTSE...4039.27...+55.60...+1.40%. DAX...4574.75...+83.60...+1.90%.


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