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 Post subject: April 9th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2009 8:55 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=162

My Trading Performance: +6.25 Emini ES points

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Big Rally on Wall Street
Wells Fargo's surprisingly upbeat forecast gives stocks a boost. Market gains for fifth straight week.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 9, 2009: 6:12 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, ending a holiday-shortened week on a high note after Wells Fargo forecast a nearly $3 billion quarterly profit, adding to hopes that the banking sector is stabilizing.

It was the fifth straight week of gains for the markets. In that time the Dow rose 22%, for its best five-week run since May of 1933, when it gained 31%.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 246 points, or 3.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 31 points, or 3.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 62 points, or 3.9%.

Stocks rallied Wednesday as a housing-sector merger and optimism about the recovery overshadowed the Fed's dour economic forecast. On Thursday the advance continued, although on lighter trading volume due to the holidays. Thursday is Passover and all financial markets will be closed on Good Friday.

"I think a lot of investors have been waiting for good news around the banks," said Tyler Vernon, portfolio manager at Biltmore Capital. "They've been getting good news from the government on the banks, but hearing this from Wells Fargo was unexpected."

At the same time, Vernon said he's concerned that the recent rally has been too much, too fast, and that individual investors are getting in at the wrong time.

Stocks have essentially been on a tear since the Dow and S&P 500 hit 12-year lows on March 9.

After initially being driven by traders, hedge funds and other professional market makers, the recent advance has seen individuals jumping back in.

For the last two weeks, investors have put money into equity mutual funds, according to Trim Tabs, after weeks of pulling money out of funds. In the week ended Wed. April 8, investors put $11.9 billion into stock mutual funds after adding $3 billion in the previous week.

And the CBOE volatility index, or the VIX (VIX), Wall Street's fear measure, closed Thursday at its lowest point since late September.

Financials: San-Francisco-based Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) said it expects to report income of about $3 billion, or 55 cents per share, in the first quarter, surpassing analysts' current estimates.

The bank said the strong quarter was due to the performance of its traditional banking and mortgage units, as well as the continued benefits from its purchase of Wachovia. Wells' shares jumped 31.7%.

A variety of financial shares surged in tandem, including Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500).

The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index gained 20%.

In other news, U.K. bank Barclays (BCS) said it will sell its U.S.-based asset management business to European private equity firm CVC Capital Partners Group in a deal worth $4.4 billion. U.S.-traded shares of Barclays gained 11%.

Retailers: March sales at the nation's retailers slumped 1.8%, versus expectations for a drop of 0.9%. The results were something of a setback following an improvement in February, when sales rose 0.3%.

Many retailers blamed the weaker sales on the later Easter this year - with the holiday falling on April 12 versus March 23 last year.

Leading retailer Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) reported a 1.4% rise in sales at stores open a year or more, a retail sector metric known as same-store sales. But that was short of the 3.2% rise analysts were expecting. (Full story)

Wal-Mart lost 3.7% and was one of only 4 Dow stocks not participating in Thursday's advance.

Other company news: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) lost its top credit rating at Moody's. The agency cut the rating on Buffett's diversified company by two notches, saying the recession and the company's investment losses were making it harder for Berkshire to meet its funding needs.

Dow component 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) is offering 3,600 employees, or around 11% of its workforce, early retirement packages, as it contends with the ongoing recession. The company, often seen as a proxy for the economy due to its varied businesses, has already cut 3,600 jobs this year.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than seven to one on volume of 1.84 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners four to one on volume of 2.19 billion shares.

Economy: Two government reports were released Thursday. The February trade gap shrank 28.3%, falling to its smallest level since November 1999.

The weekly jobless claims report showed the number of people filing new claims for unemployment dipped to 654,000 from 674,000 the previous week. But the number of people who have been receiving benefits for a week or more rose to an all-time high of 5.84 million.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.92% from 2.88% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets gained.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery settled up $2.86 to $52.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $2.60 to settle at $883.30 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : A better-than-expected earnings preannouncement from Wells Fargo sent the financial sector surging 15.5%, which induced buying in the broader market and helped the Dow move back above 8,000.

Wells Fargo (WFC 19.61, +4.72) isn't scheduled to officially announce first quarter earnings results until April 22, but came out this morning to let investors know it expects to earn $0.55 per share for the quarter. Analysts had forecast earnings of just $0.24 per share. Wells Fargo also indicated its combined net charge-offs are down sequentially and that the legacy Wachovia business is operating well.

Wells Fargo's announcement seemed to contradict a handful of pessimistic comments and reports, and helped restore investor confidence in bank stocks. Diversified banks advanced 28.9%, while the KBW Banking Index climbed 20.1%.

Leadership from banks and other financial stocks helped bring about broad-based buying in each of the major indices. In turn, all three major indices were able to log their best single session percentage gain in two weeks and close at session highs. Each index advanced more than 3%. Small- and mid-cap stocks fared even better; the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index spiked 5.9%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index tacked on 5.5%.

There weren't any market-moving earnings announcements released today. However, plenty of retailers were out reporting same-store sales results for March. Though the numbers generally showed declines, they weren't necessarily as bad as many had expected. That, combined with a positive bias in the broader market, helped retailers climb 4.6%.

Wal-Mart (WMT 50.66, -1.95) was a laggard, though. The company posted positive March same-store sales, but the increase wasn't as strong as expected. Still, Wal-Mart hasn't reported a negative monthly same-store sales figure since May 2007.

Wal-Mart's string of positive same-store sales results largely comes from strapped consumers looking for bargains amid stiff macro headwinds, including rising job losses. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 totaled 654,000, which is down 20,000 from the week before, but generally in-line with the 660,000 initial claims that were expected. Continuing claims climbed to a new record high of 5.80 million.

A strong bias in the equity markets didn't really carry over into commodities trading. Crude oil futures closed pit trading with oil priced 5.2% higher at $51.97 per barrel, but natural gas contracts closed pit trading roughly 0.6% lower at $3.60 each. Gold finished at $883.00 per ounce, down 0.3%. Silver closed pit trading at $12.33 per ounce, just below the unchanged mark.

As a reminder, stock and bond markets are closed Friday for holiday observance.DJ30 +246.27 NASDAQ +61.88 NQ100 +3.0% R2K +5.9% SP400 +5.5% SP500 +31.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2290/2.15 bln/455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2741/1.84 bln/366

3:30 pm : Oil prices moved higher Thursday, while several other key commodity prices closed lower. Still, the CRB Commodity Index has managed to stay in positive territory for the entire day. The CRB is currently up 1.9%.

Crude oil futures contracts closed pit trading with oil priced 5.2% higher at $51.97 per barrel. Crude prices are up roughly 16.5% this year.

Natural gas prices failed to follow crude's lead. Natural gas prices were in the green during the early going but relatively bearish inventory data sent prices into the red. Natural gas contracts closed pit trading roughly 0.6% lower at $3.60 each.

Preceious metals were pressured for much of the session, though their relative weakness wasn't too intense. Gold finished at $883.00 per ounce, down 0.3%. Silver closed pit trading at $12.33 per ounce, just below the unchanged mark.

The Baltic Dry Index ended its recent losing streak by advancing 1%. The Panamax Index added 2.7%, while the Capesize Index gained 1.6%.DJ30 +223.25 NASDAQ +53.64 SP500 +27.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2221/1.73 bln/512 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2697/1.19 bln/394

3:00 pm : Stocks have climbed to fresh session highs. More than 85% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with gains.

At its current level, the S&P 500 is looking at a week-to-date gain of 1.2% (markets are closed tomorrow for holiday observance). DJ30 +225.16 NASDAQ +54.76 SP500 +26.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2239/1.55 bln/480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2680/1.07 bln/397

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with strong gains.

Kansas City Fed President Hoenig said that there is room to revisit mark-to-market around recoverable value, according to Reuters.DJ30 +194.78 NASDAQ +52.27 SP500 +23.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2215/1.39 bln/459 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2652/961 mln/428

2:00 pm : Financial stocks have climbed to fresh session highs. The sector is now up 9.8%.

Despite the positive influence financials have had on the broader market this session, consumer staples stocks and utilities stocks have been unable to share in the gains. The two lagging sectors are down 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

Health care stocks also continue to trade as laggards. Though it is up 0.3%, the health care sector trails the broader market by a considerable margin.DJ30 +204.29 NASDAQ +53.46 SP500 +24.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/1.29 bln/449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2651/883 mln/412

1:30 pm : The major indices continue to trade with marked strength. The Nasdaq, however, is outperforming its counterparts for the second straight session. Per usual, the Nasdaq's strength comes as a result of gains in large-cap tech.

Small- and mid-cap stocks are showing even greater strength, though. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 4.8%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 4.1%.DJ30 +192.59 NASDAQ +51.24 SP500 +22.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2193/1.19 bln/451 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2628/823 mln/412

1:00 pm : Stocks are putting together their best session of the weak, helping the Dow move back above 8,000. The positive tone started as an extension from the prior session, but was bolstered by some encouraging news from Wells Fargo (WFC 18.40, +3.51).

Wells Fargo preannounced first quarter earnings that exceeded analysts' consensus estimate, and also indicated its combined net charge-offs are down sequentially. The announcement has given investors confidence in other bank stocks.

There have been some reports indicating that banks and other financial companies may be in need of more capital, but that hasn't disrupted an 8.9% advance by financials. The gain is providing leadership to the broader market as many investors hold to the notion that a broader market recovery will come on the back of a rally in financials.

Retailers (+3.8%) are also making strong gains this session. Though many companies reported negative same-store sales results for March, the numbers weren't necessarily as bad as many had expected. That has helped support the belief that there won't be material deterioration in the immediate offing.

For instance, JCPenney (JCP 24.43, +1.83) reported a 10.6% decline in March same-store sales, but raised its guidance for the first quarter.

Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 50.35, -2.26) actually reported an increase in March same-store sales, but the increase was short of expectations. That has overshadowed an in-line earnings outlook from the company and led to weakness in its stock.

Nonetheless, retailers remain challenged by stiff consumer headwinds, primarily a weak job market. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 totaled 654,000, which is down 20,000 from the week before, and slightly below the 660,000 initial claims that were expected. Continuing claims climbed to a new record high of 5.80 million.

In other economic news, February trade deficit totaled $26.0 billion, which is less than the $36.0 billion deficit that was widely expected, and down from January's deficit of $36.2 billion.

Import prices for March increased 0.5% month-over-month and decreased 14.9% year-over-year. They were expected to increase 0.9% month-over-month, but decrease 14.7% year-over-year. DJ30 +179.20 NASDAQ +47.99 SP500 +21.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2150/1.09 bln/459 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2615/745 mln/415

12:30 pm : Retailers are trading 3.4% gain, extending their advance from the prior session. Over the past two sessions, retailers are now up 8.1%.

Target (TGT 39.52, +1.92) is providing the most leadership to the group. Target reported a 6.3% decline in March same-store sales. Despite the decline the stock has moved markedly higher, and is now trading above its 200-day simple moving average for the first time in six months.

Meanwhile, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 30.84, -0.86) is trading as a laggard among retailers. The stock skyrocketed in the prior session as traders chased shares after the company announced better-than-expected quarterly results. This session's weakness comes as investors move to lock in some of those gains.DJ30 +186.86 NASDAQ +48.70 SP500 +22.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2138/1.01 bln/452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2607/683 mln/399

12:00 pm : The CRB Commoditiy Index is currently trading 1.5% higher, but its key components are seeing mixed action.

Crude prices are back above the $50 threshold to $50.91 per barrel, reflecting a 3.1% increase in contract prices.

Natural gas prices are now down 0.9% to $3.60 per contract after forfeiting early gains. The downward move followed a bearish weekly natural gas inventory report, which showed a build of 20 bcf.

Despite varied energy contract prices, energy stocks are trading 1.6% higher. However, the energy sector is still trailing the broader market.

With stocks moving higher, traders are pushing back on precious metals prices. Gold contracts are currently pricing the yellow metal 0.6% lower to $879.30 per ounce. Silver is off by 0.7% to trade hands at $12.25 per ounce. DJ30 +170.04 NASDAQ +47.29 SP500 +21.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2115/896 mln/438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2604/613 mln/388

11:30 am : The major indices have drifted downward from their session highs, but broad-based gains remain.

Selling pressure against the health care sector has intensified. Health care stocks were up as much as 1.3%, but have since retreated all the way back to the unchanged mark. The sector's sudden decline stems from weakness in biotech stocks (-0.6%) and pharmaceutical stocks (-0.7%). Big pharma names such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 51.27, -0.18) and Merck (MRK 26.41, -0.35) are among the primary laggards in the Dow.DJ30 +161.25 NASDAQ +43.03 SP500 +20.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2114/795 mln/392 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2601/551 mln/368

11:00 am : Banks continue to be the session's top performers. Wells Fargo (WFC 18.17, +3.28), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 31.03, +3.60), and Bank of America (BAC 8.39, +1.33) are providing the most leadership to the S&P 500. General Electric (GE 11.40, +0.76) is also providing support.

Shares of all four companies are at new multimonth highs.

Meanwhile, the KBW Bank Index is currently up 10.8%, which is its best single-session performance since it shot up 18.6% following the Treasury's plan to help banks shed their illiquid assets.DJ30 +175.38 NASDAQ +44.00 SP500 +21.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/673 mln/365 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2589/474 mln/346

10:30 am : By climbing 2.9%, the stock market is putting together its best single-session performance of the week. This session's gains are actually the best since a 7.1% surge more than two weeks ago.

With stocks looking strong, Treasuries have fallen under pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down 17 ticks, which has pushed its yield up to 2.92%. Still, the Note's current yield remains shy of its 10-day high.DJ30 +197.84 NASDAQ +48.48 SP500 +23.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2065/512 mln/323 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2622/364 mln/283

10:00 am : Strength is broad-based in the early going, but financials remain the clear leader. The sector is currently up 8.0%.

Consumer staples stocks make up the only sector to trade with a loss. Consumer staples are presently down 0.1%. Weakness is largely linked to a drop in shares of Wal-Mart (WMT 50.07, -2.54). Wal-Mart announced this morning that its same-store sales for March increased 1.4%, which was actually below the 3.3% increase that Briefing.com estimated.

Wal-Mart had experienced a 5.1% increase in same-store sales for February. Its enviable same-store sales gains during recent months have been helped by cost-conscious consumers hunting for bargains amid such headwinds as weak labor markets, lower home prices, and depressed asset portfolios.

Wal-Mart also indicated that it expects first quarter earnings to be near the high end of the range $0.72 to $0.77 per share, which is in-line with the current consensus estimate of $0.76 per share.

Early movers: Trading down: HPT -21.8%, FAZ -20.9%, SKF -13.2% Trading up: TXT +42.7%, APWR +32.4%, WFC +27.7%, CRME +26.7%, FAS +20.8%, CSH +17.3%, EXM +17.2%, STI +17.1%, GYMB +16.9%, BAC +16.7%, BNE +16.7%, RFL +16.2%, ING +15.2%, ALV +14.4%, SOA +14%, KEY +14%, TRMA +13.8%,
HA +13.8%, WFC-J +13.8%, FITB +13.3%, UYG +13.2%, RKH +12.9%, JPM +12.8%, USB +12.5%, APPY +12.2%, AINV +12.2%, MAC +12.1%, ALY +11.7%, COF +11.4%, DFS +11.3%, MFC +11.2%, HLX +11.1%, HTZ +10.9%, SHO +10.9%, SNDK +10.5%, ZION +10.1%, BCS +10%, KBE +10%DJ30 +200.79 NASDAQ +50.85 SP500 +25.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/316 mln/287 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2611/263 mln/221

09:45 am : Financial stocks (+8.1%) are leading a strong, early advance. The sector's strength comes on the heels of encouraging news from Wells Fargo (WFC 19.00, +4.11).

Wells Fargo announced this morning that it expects first quarter earnings to come in at $0.55 per share, which is well above the consensus estimate of $0.23 per share. Wells Fargo also announced that the legacy Wachovia business is operating well, which helps to alleviate concerns that Wachovia would result in headaches similar to those caused by Bank of America's (BAC 8.24, +1.18) acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

The bank also indicated that its combined net charge-offs for the first quarter are $3.3 billion, down from the combined net charge-offs of $6.1 billion incurred in the fourth quarter.

While Wells Fargo's announcement effectively raises the bar for its peers, it also gives investors confidence in other diversified bank stocks (+23.1%).DJ30 +160.01 NASDAQ +36.99 SP500 +20.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/166 mln/293 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2506/175 mln/236

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.00. Stock futures continue pointing to a strong start for the major indices. The positive bias ahead of the opening bell was bolstered by a surprise update from Wells Fargo (WFC), which indicated the company expects its first quarter earnings to be more than double the consensus earnings per share estimate. The announcement has spurred a bid for a broad range of bank stocks. Wells Fargo's shares, in particular, are up 32% to $19.67 per share in premarket trading. The announcement is overshadowing a rather disappointing same-store sales report from Wal-Mart (WMT). Even though the retail giant posted an increase in March same-store sales, the increase wasn't as much as what analysts expected. The company did offer an in-line earnings forecast, though. Shares of WMT are down 4.7% to $50.15 per share in premarket action. Other retailers' monthly sales have generally been weak. Job conditions also remain weak. Continuing claims climbed to a new record high. Weekly claims were generally in-line with expectations, and down a bit from the prior weak.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +18.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30. European stocks are trading with strong gains, helped along by news that Wells Fargo (WFC) expects to post a record first quarter profit of $3 billion, or $0.55 per share, which is far better than the $0.23 per share that had been forecast by Wall Street. The announcement has helped bolster shares of HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) on Britain's FTSE, which is up 1.1%. Barclays confirmed it has entered into an agreement to sell its interest in the Barclays Global Fund Advisors and certain affiliated companies, more commonly known as its iShares business, to a newly created holding company of CVC Capital Partners Group. Dow Jones reports the business will be sold for $4.4 billion. Barclays expects the transaction to be completed later this year. Separately, the Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Germany's DAX is up 2.3%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is primary leader on the German bourse. Meanwhile, France's CAC is sporting a 1.6% gain, helped along by financial outfits AXA (AXA) and BNP Paribas. ArcelorMittal (MT) and Total (TOT) are also providing support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 3.1% higher, and Japan's Nikkei closed 3.7% higher after the Japanese government announced a larger-than-expected economic stimulus plan, equivalent to 3.1% of the country's GDP. The stimulus plan also includes a backup scheme in which a government entity could potentially buy shares from markets with guarantees. The market also benefited on news of an unexpected rise in machinery orders. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.0% higher, lifted by financial stocks. Shares of Ping An Insurance, the world's second-largest insurer by market value, jumped. As a reminder, Hong Kong is closed Friday for a holiday. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1.4% higher.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +15.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.80. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 totaled 654,000, which is down 20,000 from the week before, and slightly below the 660,000 initial claims that were expected. Continuing claims, meanwhile, totaled 5.84 million, which marks a new record high. Continuing claims were expected to come in at 5.80 million, while the prior week's tally was upwardly revised to reflect 5.75 million continuing claims. Separately, the February trade deficit totaled $26.0 billion, which is less than the $36.0 billion deficit that was widely expected. January's reading was revised incrementally lower to reflect a deficit of $36.2 billion. Import prices for March increased 0.5% month-over-month and decreased 14.9% year-over-year. Import prices were expected to increase 0.9% month-over-month, but decrease 14.7% year-over-year. Stock futures continue to lead fair value by a solid margin.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. There aren't any market-moving earnings reports out this morning, but many retailers are reporting same-store sales results for March. The results thus far have been mixed. Wal-Mart (WMT) will likely garner the most attention. Typically, the report is regarded as a harbinger of overall retail activity, but the number should be analyzed with the understanding that stiff consumer headwinds in recent months have helped Wal-Mart gain at the loss of other retailers. Just hitting the wires, Wells Fargo (WFC) issued upside guidance for the first quarter, causing stock futures to push higher. Weekly jobless claims are due at the bottom of the hour. Without doubt the reading will reflect continued weakness in labor markets. The February trade balance and March Import Price Index are also due at 8:30 AM ET. This is the last trading session of the week; markets are closed Friday for holiday observance.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80.

06:37 am : Nikkei...8916.06...+321.10...+3.70%. Hang Seng...14901.41...+426.60...+3.00%.

06:37 am : FTSE...3937.98...+12.50...+0.30%. DAX...4407.75...+49.90...+1.10%.


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