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 Post subject: April 8th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:22 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=161

My Trading Performance: +6.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Recharge the Advance
Tech-fueled Nasdaq leads the rally at the end of a choppy session. Pulte-Centex merger and insurers in focus.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 8, 2009: 5:35 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Wednesday at the end of a choppy session as a housing sector merger and more optimism about the recovery overshadowed sinking bank shares and the Fed's dour economic forecast.

Investors seemed to take in stride Alcoa's glum start to what is expected to be a dismal quarterly results reporting period.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 47 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 9 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 29 points, or 1.9%.

Stocks slipped Monday and Tuesday following a four-week advance that sent the Dow and S&P 500 spiking more than 20% off 12-year lows. But after the brief retreat, investors managed to restart the advance Wednesday.

The market likely bottomed on March 9, said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. Yet, the next six months are bound to be choppy as investors try to factor in an eventual recovery.

"The selloff in February into early March was driven by speculation about the most dire outcomes for our economic systems," Ghriskey said. "That level of panic usually signals a bottom."

"We've recovered very quickly over the last month from that correction and we're on pretty solid footing here," he said. "But we're likely to remain in a holding pattern until we have more clarity on the recovery."

Stocks briefly cut gains after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve policy meeting last month, when central bank policymakers opted to keep interest rates at levels near zero.

The bankers forecast a delay in the economic recovery until 2010, instead of the second half of this year. The bankers also thought the unemployment rate would rise more steeply into 2010.

Thursday preview: March sales from the nation's retailers are due through the morning. Sales improved in February after four straight months of declines, but investors will be looking to see if the consumer is continuing to hang in despite the recession.

The government releases the February trade balance and the weekly jobless claims report before the start of trading, along with the March report on import and export prices.

Thursday is also Passover, although many celebrations begin the night before. Financial markets are open Thursday, but trading volume is expected to be light ahead of Good Friday, when all markets are closed.

Homebuilders: Pulte Homes (PHM, Fortune 500) is buying Centex (CTX, Fortune 500) in a $3.1 billion deal - including debt - that creates the nation's largest homebuilder. The deal gave a boost to a number of other companies in the sector, including Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500) and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, Fortune 500).

Insurers: The sector got a lift from a published report that said Treasury will let certain insurers receive aid from its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Gainers included Hartford Financial (HIG, Fortune 500), Genworth Financial (GNW, Fortune 500) and Lincoln National (LNC, Fortune 500).

Earnings: Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) reported a first-quarter loss of 59 cents per share after the close Tuesday, wider than the loss of 56 cents per share analysts were expecting. The aluminum maker earned 44 cents a year earlier.

Revenue fell to $4.1 billion from $7.375 billion a year ago, versus forecasts for a bigger drop to $4.08 billion. Alcoa is typically the first Dow component and major company to report results each quarter. Shares gained 3.5% Wednesday.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that beat forecasts on lower revenue that met estimates. Shares jumped over 24%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by almost three to one on volume of 1.32 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over two to one on volume of 1.86 billion shares.

Short-selling rules: The advance was set back following reports that regulators are recommending restrictions on all short-selling, not just on financial shares, as had previously been thought.

The stock market got a boost last month on talk that the Securities and Exchange Commission would reinstate the uptick rule - that limits short-selling - on financial shares. Critics have said the absence of the rule has exacerbated the selloff in bank stocks.

Economic news: February wholesale inventories fell 1.5% versus forecasts for a drop of 0.7%. Inventories fell 0.7% in the previous month.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.88% from 2.91% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets finished mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery settled up 23 cents at $49.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices slipped in the morning, but turned around after the government's weekly energy report showed crude supplies increased less than expected.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $885.90 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Sellers threatened to drag stocks lower for the third straight session, but buyers showed resolve and pushed all three of the major indices higher.

Helped by news that the Treasury is planning to extend bailout funds to insurers, stocks started the session on positive footing. Though an official statement has yet to be made, many expect beaten down names like Lincoln National (LNC 9.15, +2.26) and Hartford (HIG 9.59, +1.14) to benefit.

Despite the strength of insurers, the financial sector, as a whole, lagged the broader market for virtually the entire session. Regional banks (-2.4%), investment banks and brokerages (-1.2%), and diversified financial services stocks (-0.9%) weighed on the sector.

Pulte Homes (PHM 9.64, -1.13) proved the housing market still has a pulse by announcing it will acquire Centex (CTX 9.06, +1.41) for $10.50 per share, which marks a premium of almost 38% for shares of Centex from their closing price Tuesday.

However, some of the hope that the housing market may be turning was dashed when the minutes from the FOMC March 18 meeting indicated that committee members did not consider an uptick in February housing starts to be the beginning of a new trend. The minutes served as a reminder to investors that economic conditions remain weak and that downside risks predominate the near term, stirring midday selling pressure.

Separately, The Federal Reserve announced that its second TALF auction received $1.7 billion in requests, which is down markedly from the $4.7 billion that was requested in March.

Earnings are back in focus. Dow component Alcoa (AA 8.06, +0.27) unofficially kicked off earnings season Tuesday evening with a deeper-than-expected loss. Mosaic (MOS 45.61, +2.67) also reported, and missed expectations as well.

However, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.70, +6.19) reported better-than-expected earnings, and Juniper Networks (JNPR 17.51, +1.89) preannounced quarterly results that were in-line with the company's prior forecast. Bed Bath & Beyond's report helped retail stocks bounce 4.5% higher, but strength in both companies helped the Nasdaq outperform the other headline indices.

Sellers put together a coordinated effort on a couple of occasions, twice sending stocks back to the unchanged mark. However, on both occasions stocks found support and eventually finished the session with broad-based gains.

In regulatory news, the Securities and Exchange Commission is looking to vote on short sale restrictions. The restrictions focus on using a short sale price tests and circuit breakers. DJ30 +47.55 NASDAQ +29.05 NQ100 +2.0% R2K +2.4% SP400 +1.5% SP500 +9.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1937/1.85 bln/733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2259/1.32 bln/775

3:30 pm : The stock market is currently trading around the unchanged level. The market is seeing below average volume for the third straight session.

Crude oil contracts expiring in May spiked ~$3.00 per barrel following the DOE Inventory report which was roughly in-line with expectations. The contracts traded in positive territory for the rest of the session but pulled back to nearly unchanged levels to close at $49.45, up 0.6%.

May natural gas contracts also traded in positive territory for most of the session. The natural gas futures also traded higher following the DOE inventory report, they managed to finish the session at $3.63 per contract, up 2%.

June gold futures traded between $879.20 and $891.70 per ounce during the pit session. The gold contracts finished the session marginally higher at $885.90 per ounce.

May silver futures contracts hit morning session highs and lows of $12.47 and $12.15 per ounce, respectively. The silver contracts spent the majority of the afternoon in the green and closed at $12.34 per ounce, up 1.1%.DJ30 -10.12 NASDAQ +16.76 SP500 +3.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/1.5 bln/954 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1988/926 mln/997

3:00 pm : Another bout of selling pressure is undercutting the stock market's gains, so much that the Dow has actually moved back into negative ground.

Financials have been a focus of the recent selling effort. The sector is now down 0.7% after trading with a gain for nearly the entire session. Financials were up more than 2% at their session high.

Telecom stocks have also fallen into the red. The sector is now down 0.8% as AT&T (T 25.24, -0.29) slumps. DJ30 -0.80 NASDAQ +16.27 SP500 +3.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/1.39 bln/934 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/834 mln/1056

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with gains, though they are well off session highs. The Nasdaq is outperforming (+1.4%), as it has this year with a gain of 0.4%, compared to the S&P 500's loss of 9.1%.DJ30 +23.81 NASDAQ +21.64 SP500 +5.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1748/1.28 bln/856 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2058/762 mln/916

2:00 pm : Just hitting news wires, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 meeting indicate that the committee members felt that as the U.S. economy was deteriorating, foreign activity was softening, according to Reuters.

The minutes also indicate the FOMC expects to keep the fed funds rate exceptionally low, according to Dow Jones.

Financials have nearly been absent from today's rebound. Though the financial sector is up 0.5%, it has consistently underperformed the broader market this session.

Within the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.43, +0.18) and American Express (AXP 15.85, +0.84) are the primary leaders. Allstate (ALL 21.37, +1.11) and Lincoln National (LNC 8.83, +1.94) are also providing support; their gains come amid reports indicating the Treasury will extend bailout funds to select insurance companies.

At the other end of the scope, Bank of America (BAC 7.06, -0.30) and Goldman Sachs (GS 114.55, -1.53) are trading as laggards.DJ30 +60.77 NASDAQ +25.97 SP500 +9.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1766/1.15 bln/808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2219/678 mln/751

1:30 pm : Gains remain strong, especially among small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is currently up 1.9%, better than any of the headline indices.

Ruby Tuesday (RT 6.17, +2.28) is providing the most leadership to small-caps. The company's shares are up by more than 50% after the company posted better-than-expected earnings results following the prior session's close. The stock was subsequently upgraded by several analysts.DJ30 +72.72 NASDAQ +28.72 SP500 +10.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1814/1.07 bln/752 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2231/628 mln/718

1:00 pm : Stocks started the session with solid gains, but faltered as sellers moved to test buyers' conviction. Buyers responded by pushing stocks higher in broad-based fashion -- the major indices are currently at session highs.

The positive tone in the early going came after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Treasury plans to extend bailout funds to struggling life insurance companies. Specifics of such a plan haven't been released, but many expect the most beaten down names to benefit. That notion has shares of Lincoln National (LNC 9.22, +2.33) and Hartford (HIG 10.11, +1.66) surging.

Word that Pulte Homes (PHM 9.66, -1.11) will acquire Centex (CTX 9.13, +1.51) for $10.50 per share has some investors hoping that conditions in the housing market have finally turned. Shares of Centex closed the prior session at $7.62 per share, so Pulte's offer represents a premium of almost 38% above that closing price.

Earnings season began unceremoniously last evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA 7.78, -0.01) reported a deeper-than-expected loss. The shares are currently trading in mixed fashion.

Mosaic (MOS 44.56, +1.62) also reported last evening; its shares have reversed early losses that stemmed from a disappointing earnings report. Mosaic's recent strength is helping the materials sector put together a 1.6% gain.

Meanwhile, a better-than-expected earnings report from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.20, +5.69) is helping the consumer discretionary sector advance 2.7%, more than any other major sector.

Juniper Networks (JNPR 17.81, +2.19) is seeing its stock stage solid gains in the wake of the company's preannounced results, which were in-line with its previous forecast. Juniper's strength, combined with that of more influential large cap tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT 19.52, +0.76) and Cisco (CSCO 17.25, +0.40), is helping the Nasdaq outperform the other headline indices.

Outside of the corporate realm, the Securities and Exchange Commission is looking to vote on short sale restrictions, which center around using a short sale price test approach and circuit breakers.

Separately, The Federal Reserve announced that its second TALF auction received $1.7 billion in requests, which is down from the $4.7 billion requested in March.

Participants await the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting (2:00 PM ET). The minutes should provide a glimpse into the rate-setting committee's philosophy in steering the economy. DJ30 +86.10 NASDAQ +31.93 SP500 +11.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/989 mln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2246/583 mln/691

12:30 pm : The Nasdaq recently ascended to a fresh session high. The Dow and S&P 500 are close to accomplishing the same feat.

Gains remain broad-based as advancing issues in the Dow outnumber decliners by 3-to-2. In the S&P 500, advancers outnumber declining issues by more than 2-to-1.DJ30 +47.15 NASDAQ +26.36 SP500 +8.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1732/870 mln/768 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2136/518 mln/788

12:00 pm : Gains have become broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 now sport gains.

Energy, which was an early laggard, is now up 0.5%. The move has been helped by a rebound in crude oil futures prices, which are now up 2.9% to $59.60 per barrel. Crude prices had been down more than 2% in early pit trading.

Consumer discretionary stocks are sporting the best gain of any other sector. Consumer discretionary stocks are up 1.9%. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 31.06, +5.55) is a leader among consumer discretionary names; the company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results.DJ30 +38.63 NASDAQ +21.74 SP500 +6.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/777 mln/766 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2073/467 mln/816

11:30 am : Trading volume has slowed, but buyers are making an attempt to counter a recent selling effort.

A supportive bid has helped stocks recover from earlier levels, though the major indices remain off session highs.

Large-cap tech continues to show the most strength this session. As such, the Nasdaq 100 is up 1.3%.DJ30 +26.20 NASDAQ +18.98 SP500 +4.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/661 mln/812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1942/405 mln/897

11:00 am : The Securities and Exchange Commission is currently holding an open meeting to discuss possible short sale restrictions. The first recommended approach to regulate short selling uses a short sale price test approach, while the second uses circuit breakers.

Price tests could use a modified uptick rule that requires short sales to not take place at prices below the national best bid, or possibly a proposed uptick rule based on the last sale price rather than the national best bid.

As for circuit breakers, these breakers would only apply to securities facing substantial declines. Breaker proposals could prohibit short selling for the remainder of the day after a 10% decline in a security; a circuit breaker triggered by 10% decline could enforce a price test rule based on the best bid, and; a circuit breaker triggered by a 10% decline could enforce a price test rule based on the last sale price.

Meanwhile, stocks seem to be looking for direction after early gains were challenged by a bout of selling pressure. All three of the major indices are back in positive territory, though.DJ30 +5.09 NASDAQ +9.13 SP500 +2.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/528 mln/900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/325 mln/1030

10:30 am : Stocks are quickly paring their gains as sellers enter the fold. The Dow and S&P 500 are now in the red, but the Nasdaq has managed to remain in positive ground.

Gold prices have also made a sudden reversal. In just minutes, gold prices retreated from a 0.2% gain to trade with a 0.4% loss at $879.00 per ounce.

Silver is trading just above the unchanged mark at $12.25 per ounce.

Crude oil prices recently pared losses after weekly inventory reports reflected a build of 1.65 million barrels. A build of roughly 1.5 million barrels was expected. Crude prices had been down roughly 2.5% in the minutes leading up to the inventory report, but are now down 0.8% to $48.70 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are up a modest 0.6%, though. Natural gas contracts were recently quoted at $3.58 each.

The Baltic Dry Index closed 0.2% lower. Of its subindices, only the Capsize (+1.1%) and the Panamax (+0.6%) made gains.DJ30 -0.72 NASDAQ +7.00 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1388/399 mln/862 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1534/243 mln/1157

10:00 am : Tech stocks (+1.7%) are building on their gains, while the broader market has pulled back a bit. Microsoft (MSFT 19.23, +0.47), Cisco (CSCO 17.13, +0.28), Apple (AAPL 116.14, +1.14), and IBM (IBM 100.00, +1.25) are all providing leadership to the sector. The companies are also helping the Nasdaq take an early lead over its counterparts.DJ30 +34.88 NASDAQ +21.51 SP500 +4.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/235 mln/487 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1931/162 mln/726

09:40 am : Stocks are making a strong start after faltering in each of the past two sessions. This session's early, upward move is being led by financials (+1.5%) and technology stocks (+1.4%).

Consumer discretionary stocks (+1.6%) are also showing strong gains as retailers jump 3.0%.

Energy stocks are currently lagging, however. Energy is down 0.9% amid weakness in oil and gas storage companies (-1.3%) and integrated oil and gas companies (-0.9%). Much of their decline is owed to a 1.4% decline in crude oil futures prices, which currently stand at $48.45 per barrel.DJ30 +38.71 NASDAQ +21.41 SP500 +5.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/94 mln/429 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/78 mln/651

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. After spending most of overnight and early morning trade in the red, stock futures now point to a positive start for the major indices. Most of this morning's focus has been on news that the Treasury plans to extend bailout funds to struggling life insurance companies, which is helping lift shares of beaten down companies like Lincoln National (LNC) and Hartford (HIG). Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve announced that its second TALF auction received $1.7 billion in requests, which is down from the $4.7 billion requested in March. Minutes from the March FOMC meeting are due at 2:00 PM ET and are expected to provide a glimpse into the committee's thinking as it steers monetary policy. Also of importance, Pulte Homes (PHM) and Centex (CTX) announced they will merge their companies. The fact Pulte is paying a hefty premium for Centex suggests Pulte is confident it can achieve certain synergies. Alcoa (AA) unofficially began earnings season last evening with a deeper-than-expected loss. Mosaic (MOS) joined in by reporting disappointing results of its own. Juniper Networks (JNPR) preannounced results that were in-line with its previous forecast.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. Despite the absence of any new headline or economic release, stock futures have improved from earlier levels to suggest that a solid start for the major indices may now be in order. Market participants have been relatively jittery during the past couple of sessions since earnings season brings a considerable amount of uncertainty. That puts added focus on forecasts and guidance. Additionally, market participants will be taking their cues from economic data; at 2:00 PM ET the Fed releases the minutes from its March meeting.

08:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. Action is relatively quiet in Europe. France's CAC is up 0.3%. AXA (AXA) and Societe Generale, which were the prior session's laggards, are providing leadership this session. Britain's FTSE is currently down 0.1%. Rio Tinto (RTP) is showing strength, but global banking giant HSBC (HBC) and integrated energy outfits BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) are trading as laggards. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is up 0.5% with Allianz (AZ) showing weakness; the company's shares were downgraded by analysts at JPMorgan. Automaker Daimler (DAI) is showing strength even though an article in The Wall Street Journal indicated the company expects a significant loss for the first quarter. Asian markets showed weakness in Wednesday's trading. Japan's Nikkei fell by 2.7%; Kyocera was a laggard. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 3.0% as HSBC traded as a laggard, but Industrial and Commercial Bank of China helped limit losses. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell 3.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.2%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Dow component Alcoa (AA) unceremoniously began earnings season with a deeper-than-expected loss. The company reported after yesterday's closing bell a first quarter loss of $0.59 per share, which is $0.02 worse than the loss of $0.57 per share that was widely expected. Shares of AA are trading modestly higher in premarket action, though, recently up 0.8% to $7.85 per share. Mosaic (MOS) also reported after yesterday's close; the company announced first quarter earnings of $0.18 per share, which is short of the consensus estimate of $0.24 per share. MOS was recently quoted 8.5% lower at $39.29 per share in premarket trading. Juniper Networks (JNPR) announced it expects first quarter adjusted earnings to range from $0.16 to $0.17 per share, which is within the company's prior guidance of $0.15 to $0.17 per share. Shares of JNPR are up nearly 6% to $16.55 per share ahead of this session's opening bell. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reported first quarter earnings of $0.55 per share, which is far better than the $0.44 per share that analysts came to expect. BBBY is up almost 14% to $29.00 per share in premarket trading. This morning discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO) posted in-line earnings of $0.60 per share for its second fiscal quarter, and issued upside guidance. Family Dollar expects third quarter earnings to range from $0.54 to $0.58 per share, which exceeds the $0.50 per share that was forecast by analysts. Shares of FDO are up 4% to $33.95 per share in premarket trading. Pulte Homes (PHM) and Centex (CTX) announced they will merge their companies in a transaction valuing CTX at $10.50 per share, which is a significant premium above CTX's prior session closing price of $7.62 per share. Outside of corporate news, the U.S. Treasury will extend bailout funds to struggling life insurance companies, according to The Wall Street Journal. Specifics of the program aren't completely available yet. The Federal Reserve announced that its second TALF auction received $1.7 billion in requests, which is down from the $4.7 billion requested in March. Stock futures for the major indices point to a relatively flat start.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50.

06:36 am : Nikkei...8595.01...-237.80...-2.70%. Hang Seng...14474.86...-454.10...-3.00%.

06:36 am : FTSE...3895.10...-35.40...-0.90%. DAX...4282.40...-40.10...-0.90%.


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