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 Post subject: April 3rd Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:31 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=158

My Trading Performance: +31.50 Emini ES points

---------------------------



Stocks Gain for 4th Straight Week
Wall Street manages to finish higher Friday despite the weak March jobs report.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 3, 2009: 4:11 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, finding momentum at the end of a choppy session influenced by a wretched March jobs report, bringing the recent advance to four straight weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained almost 40 points, or 0.5%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 8 points or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 19 points, or 1.2%.

Stocks, as represented by the broad S&P 500 index, have now jumped 23% since hitting 12-year lows on March 9.

For the four-week period ended Friday, the Dow has gained almost 21%, according to early tallies, making it the blue-chip indicator's best four-week run since May 1933, hen it gained 31%.

The stock market has been rising on hopes that the worst has happened and that some of the government's attempts to help the financial sector and economy will work.

But employment is a lagging economic indicator and is usually the last to recover. Investors are aware of this and were therefore able to take the jobs report in stride, said Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital.

"The markets have had a bit of a 'the sky is falling' fear built into them, but that's not been the case," said Blum. "We've been in a really bad recession and I don't think we'll get out of it until 2010. It's going to be lackluster for a while but the sky is not falling."

Jobs report: Employers cut 663,000 jobs from their payrolls in March, after cutting a revised 651,000 in the prior month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 650,000 job cuts.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 8.5% from 8.1% in February, in line with estimates. (Full story)

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management released its services sector index for March. The index fell to 40.8 from 41.6 in the previous month. Economists thought it would rise to 42.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke Friday afternoon at a symposium in North Carolina. He discussed the Fed's balance sheet and reiterated that the Fed would use every available tool to help the economy.

Company news: IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA, Fortune 500) are in the late stages of a deal for IBM to buy Sun for $9.55 a share, according to published reports. That's about $1 less than the figure previously floating around. IBM shares gained 1% and Sun shares rose 3.4%.

Research in Motion (RIMM) reported higher quarterly earnings that beat estimates late Thursday. The Blackberry maker also forecast first-quarter profit that are above analysts' current estimates. The stock jumped 20% and was among the Nasdaq's most-actively traded.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by four to three on volume of 1 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners and advancers were narrowly mixed on volume of 1.75 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.89% from 2.77% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates mostly dropped. The 3-month Libor rate dipped to 1.16% from 1.17% Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate fell to 0.27% from 0.29% Thursday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets mostly ended higher and European markets mostly ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell 13 cents to settle at $52.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $11.60 to $897.30 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Unmoved by the latest jobs report, participants traded stocks in low volume and in a limited range, until a late rally by financial stocks helped take the broader market to session highs heading into the close. Stocks slipped into the red in early action due to an absence of leadership.

Participants were content to let a recent string of gains consolidate after receiving word from the Labor Department that 663,000 jobs were slashed in March, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 8.1%. The data were on par with expectations.

The March ISM Nonmanufacturing Index was also given a cool response. The index showed continued contraction by coming in at 40.8, which was a bit worse than the reading of 42.0 that was widely expected, and down from 41.6 in February.

After falling to a loss of 0.8% stocks began their upward turn, which ran into a couple of resistance efforts but gathered momentum heading into the close as bids came in from the sideline, lifting share volume on the NYSE to 1.5 billion shares. That helped stocks close 1.0% higher at their best levels of the session, bringing stocks to their best closing level in more than one month.

Financials underpinned the late rally effort and closed 4.2% higher as the best performing sector. Financials had traded in a quiet manner for most of the session, uninspired by strength in European bank shares, which were bid higher after Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 9.42, +1.27) indicated it is targeting considerable annual cost savings and plans to resume dividend payments as soon as possible.

As has been the case in the last few sessions, health care (-1.6%) stocks lagged the broader market. The sector's weakness followed Congress' decision to overhaul healthcare.

Corporate news flow was rather slow, but better-than-expected quarterly results and upside guidance from Research In Motion (RIMM 59.29, +10.20) helped the Nadsaq outperform its counterparts. Shares of RIMM were also upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Traditional safe havens were under pressure this session. Gold prices nearly spent the entire course of pit trading in the red before closing 1.3% lower at $897.30 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note fell by more than one full point, lifting its yield to roughly 2.89%. DJ30 +39.51 NASDAQ +19.24 NQ100 +1.7% R2K +1.3% SP400 +1.7% SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1631/2.13 bln/1058 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2087/1.48 bln/957

3:30 pm : Gold prices nearly spent the entire course of pit trading in the red as investors rotated out of the traditional safe haven. Prices were able to move into positive ground a couple of times, but the moves proved unsustainable. June contracts concluded pit trading with the yellow metal priced 1.3% lower at $897.30 per ounce, slightly above session lows.

May silver contracts traded with steady weakness throughout afternoon trading. Silver ended its session priced at $12.74 per ounce, down 2.2%.

In energy trading, crude oil finished pit trading 0.4% lower at $52.44 per barrel. Crude was unable to recover into positive ground, but still managed to pare losses; crude had been down as much as 3.1%.

Bucking the downbeat trend, natural gas prices added 0.7% to finish trading at $4.82 per contract. Natural gas prices had been in the red, but managed to erase losses by moving into positive territory during the last hour of pit trade. DJ30 -21.18 NASDAQ +4.92 SP500 +0.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1334/1.74 bln/1353 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1764/987 mln/1261

3:00 pm : Trading remains confined to a relatively narrow range; stocks traded with a 0.8% loss at session lows, but traded with a 0.9% gain at session highs. Stocks have recently pulled back from those highs.

Financials have built on earlier gains, however. Financials are now up 2.3%.

Only the healthcare (-1.8%) and consumer staples (-0.6%) sectors are in the red.DJ30 +15.14 NASDAQ +16.20 SP500 +5.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/1.57 bln/1164 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1947/883 mln/1071

2:25 pm : The S&P 500 climbs to session highs, though its gain remains limited. Buying interest is mostly broad-based, although the healthcare sector (-1.9%) is not participating.DJ30 -3.34 NASDAQ +10.81 SP500 +3.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/1.38 bln/1297 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/764 mln/1178

2:00 pm : A sudden bounce in financial stocks has helped lift the S&P 500 to afternoon highs, though it still trades with only a modest gain.

Financial stocks led a quiet session until recently ascending to a 1.7% gain. Financials are being led by strength in diversified banks (+3.2%), specialized finance (+4.4%), and regional banks (+3.0%). REITs are also showing strength as diversified REITs advance 10.5%, retail REITs climb 10.1%, and industrial REITs move 9.9% higher.DJ30 -11.63 NASDAQ +11.28 SP500 +2.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/1.31 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1759/709 mln/1209

1:30 pm : The stock market is chopping along the unchanged. Overall action remains mixed as four of the major sectors within the S&P 500 trade in the red; consumer staples stocks (-0.7%), health care stocks (-2.0%), industrials stocks (-0.1%), and materials stocks (-0.1%) are all showing losses.

On the positive side, energy is the session's best performing sector. Energy stocks are up 1.3% to trade at session highs, even though oil prices have pulled back after a brief rally. Crude is now down 0.2% to $52.50 per barrel. It was trading near the $51 per barrel mark earlier.DJ30 -23.01 NASDAQ +8.45 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/1.20 bln/1369 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1623/644 mln/1327

1:05 pm : A muted response to the March unemployment report made for a flat opening, which was followed by a move lower amid a lack of leadership. Stocks have since made an upward turn, however.

According to the Labor Department, 663,000 jobs were cut in March. That means that more than 2 million jobs were slashed in the first quarter, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 8.1%. Unemployment is now at its highest level in more than 25 years.

Though the data was certainly ugly, Wall Street expected as much, so there was never a strong reaction to the announcement.

Stocks turned lower in the first few minutes of trading as participants moved to consolidate recent gains -- stocks had advanced nearly 6% in the three sessions leading up to this session's open. Stocks have since pared their losses, but action remains mixed.

However, the Nasdaq 100 is sporting an impressive 1.1% gain, thanks to better-than-expected quarterly results and issued upside guidance from Research In Motion (RIMM 58.92, +9.83). Its shares were also upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Health care (-2.0%) continues to lag the broader market for the third straight session. Losses within the sector are rather sizable as investors dump their holdings in the wake of Congress' decision to overhaul healthcare.

Neither stocks nor Treasuries are attracting much attention this session. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down by 29 ticks.DJ30 -34.25 NASDAQ +5.17 SP500 -1.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1216/1.12 bln/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1542/600 mln/1406

12:30 pm : The Dow continues working to join its counterparts in positive territory, but is encountering some resistance at the neutral line.

Though there isn't much buying in stocks, participants aren't favoring traditional safe havens either. Gold prices are down 0.8% to $900.20 per ounce, while Treasuries are also under pressure -- the benchmark 10-year Note is off by 28 ticks.DJ30 -3.58 NASDAQ +7.32 SP500 +1.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/983 mln/1319 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1619/520 mln/1299

12:00 pm : Thanks to a sudden rise in buying, stocks are making an upward push. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 are actually back in positive territory after slipping into the red during the first few minutes of trading.

The upward move has generally been broad-based as only health care (-1.8%) remains near its session low. Health care has been bogged down in recent sessions as pharmaceutical stocks lose their appeal. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY 20.25, -1.08) and Pfizer (PFE 13.55, -0.22) are primary laggards this session.

Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 27.95, -0.64) is also showing weakness, even though the company announced it will bolster its operations by acquiring a Brazilian generic drug company.DJ30 -14.81 NASDAQ +5.08 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1103/873 mln/1373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/460 mln/1430

11:30 am : Trading has turned rather quiet as news flow has slowed. The session's tone continues tilting toward the negative, though.

Financials are currently trading with the largest loss of any major sector. Financials are currently down 1.7% due to weakness in bank stocks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.60, -0.56), Wells Fargo (WFC 15.19, -0.14), and U.S. Bancorp (USB 15.13, -0.45). DJ30 -52.25 NASDAQ -5.53 SP500 -4.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 863/747 mln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1016/391 mln/1850

11:00 am : Weakness has spread to take nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 into the red. Telecom is the only sector sporting a gain; it is up 0.4% due to relative strength in AT&T (T 26.75, +0.21).

Despite broad-based declines, the overall downturn isn't too severe. Each of the major indices is trading within a relatively narrow range.DJ30 -59.02 NASDAQ -5.75 SP500 -5.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 846/617 mln/1530 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 948/327 mln/1881

10:30 am : Participants are taking a breather after sending the stock market roughly 6% higher during the course of the past three sessions. Trading, then, has become listless and choppy.

However, the Nasdaq 100 is sporting an impressive 0.6% gain. Its advance comes largely on the back of strength in Research In Motion (RIMM 58.59, +9.50), which reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued upside guidance. The company did indicate that it expects average selling prices to decline from the fourth quarter, but the company is growing market share.DJ30 -48.42 NASDAQ -1.98 SP500 -3.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 924/479 mln/1395 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/255 mln/1738

10:00 am : The March ISM Nonmanufacturing Index came in at 40.8, showing continued contraction in the economy's service sector. Moreover, the reading was a bit worse than the reading of 42.0 that was widely expected, and down from the 41.6 in February.

Stocks are moving modestly lower in reaction to the news. Overall trading remains choppy in the early going.DJ30 -46.75 NASDAQ -4.97 SP500 -4.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 885/286 mln/1326 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1064/165 mln/1625

09:45 am : Stocks are off to a flat start amid mixed trading. Financials (-0.6%), healthcare (-0.5%), materials (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.1%) stocks are showing a bit of early weakness, while telecom (+0.9%), utilities (+0.8%), tech (+0.7%), energy (+0.6%), industrials (+0.5%), and consumer discretionary (+0.5%) stocks show relative signs of strength.DJ30 +13.70 NASDAQ +6.80 SP500 +1.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 912/160 mln/1149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1316/104 mln/1250

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures have pulled back after an initial upward push following news that nonfarm payrolls for March fell 663,000, which lifts the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 8.1%. The stats were in-line with expectations. In corporate news, Research In Motion (RIMM) posted better-than-expected results and issued upside guidance. That has the RIMM trading almost 25% higher at $61.10 per share in premarket action. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA) are in the final stages of negotiations of a deal in which IBM would pay $9.55 per share for Sun Microsystems, according to The Wall Street Journal. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is giving a lift to European bank shares after the company announced it is targeting considerable annual cost savings and plans to resume paying dividends as soon as possible, according to reports. However, the support for European bank shares isn't carrying over to shares of major U.S. banks, which are now trading modestly lower ahead of the opening bell. The March ISM Nonmanufacturing Index is due shortly (10:00 AM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Britain's FTSE is trading 0.8% lower, despite support from major bank stocks. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) announced it is targeting annual cost savings of 2.5 billion British pounds within three years. Shares of Barclays (BCS) and Standard Chartered are also providing support. Meanwhile, financial outfits Societe Generale, AXA (AXA), and BNP Paribas are providing leadership to France's CAC, which is up just 0.2%. Select German bank stocks are seeing gains, but the country's DAX is receiving the most leadership from Daimler. Analysts at Credit Suisse recently recommended shares of Daimler as they upgraded European autos. The DAX is up 0.8%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed with a 0.6% gain while Japan's Nikkei added 0.3%. Automakers Toyota Motor (TM), Honda (HMC), and Nissan (NSANY) staged strong gains for the second straight session. However, defensive stocks fell. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tacked on 0.2%, partly helped along by hope for economic stabilization in the United States and faster recovery in China. However, a bit of profit taking slowed gains. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, despite strength in bank shares and news that China's official Purchasing Managers' Index for March advanced to 52.4 from 49.0 in February. March marked the first move into expansionary territory since last September.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.80. According to official government statistics, nonfarm payrolls for March fell 663,000, which is slightly more than the 660,000 job losses that economists expected. March's tally reflects 12,000 more job losses than the month before. The national unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%, which is spot on with what was expected, but up from the previous rate of 8.1%. Average hourly earnings for March were up 0.2% month-over-month, which matched expectations, while average weekly hours for March were in-line at 33.2. Stock futures are improving in the wake of the announcement.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. The mood in premarket trading is a bit tepid as participants prepare for the March Nonfarm Payrolls report (8:30 AM ET) and the March ISM Nonmanufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET). Research In Motion (RIMM) posted fourth quarter earnings of $0.90 per share, which is $0.06 better than the $0.84 per share that anlysts were expecting. The company went one step furtherter by issuing upside guidance; the company expects first quarter earnings to range from $0.88 to $0.97 per share, while analysts had forecast just $0.82 per share for the quarter. IBM (IBM) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA) are in the final stages of negotiations of a deal in which IBM would pay $9.55 per share for Sun Microsystems, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report indicated the deal is priced at roughly $1 per share less than Sun Microsystems expected, but the offer is still above the prior session's closing price of $8.21 per share. European banks are trading with strength in the wake of an announcement from Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) that it is targeting considerable annual cost savings. Royal Bank of Scotland's ADRs are trading roughly 13% higher in U.S. premarket action. In conjunction, the ADRs of Barclays (BCS) are trading more than 7% higher at $10.40 per share ahead of the U.S. open. Meanwhile, shares of major U.S. banks are trading modestly higher ahead of the opening bell.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80.

06:37 am : Nikkei...8749.84...+30.10...+0.30%. Hang Seng...14545.69...+23.70...+0.20%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4106.91...-18.10...-0.40%. DAX...4415.75...+33.60...+0.80%.


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