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 Post subject: April 1st Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2009 6:34 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=156

My Trading Performance: +11.00 Emini ES points

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Stocks: New Quarter, New Rally
Wall Street extends the recent advance after better-than-expected manufacturing and housing reports.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 1, 2009: 5:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks recharged their advance Wednesday, with investors starting off the new quarter on the right foot, following better-than-expected readings on housing and manufacturing.

Investors seemed to take in stride dismal March sales from the automakers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 153 points, or 2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 13 points, or 1.7%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 23 points, or 1.5%.

Stocks had tumbled at the open on a worse-than-expected jobs report and talk that the automakers will have to go into bankruptcy to restructure. But the selling pressure eased as the day wore on.

Stocks gained in March at the end of the Dow's worst first quarter in 70 years. The blue-chip indicator gained 7.7% during the month, but fell 13.3% in the first quarter, its worst January-March showing since 1939.

The Dow and S&P 500 briefly touched more than 12-year lows in early March, before bouncing back on optimism that the economy is closer to stabilizing.

April can be a tricky month for Wall Street. It's the Dow's best month of the year going back to 1950, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, good for an average gain of 1.9%.

But in bear markets, April can be wretched. In April 2002, during the last bear market, the Dow lost 4.4% for its worst April since 1970.

"I think we saw a significant low in early March," said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan. "That doesn't mean we're going straight up from here, but it does mean this run could end up being more than just another hideous bear market rally."

He said that the real test will come over the next few weeks as investors sort through the first-quarter results, which are expected to be pretty terrible.

Investors were gearing up for the start of the G-20 meeting in London Thursday, which brings together leaders from the world's largest economies. President Obama is expected to make the push for a bigger global economic stimulus effort.

He is also expected to detail the new financial regulations pitched to Congress last week as a means of preventing another financial meltdown like the current one. (Full story)

The weekly jobless claims report and February factory orders index are also due Thursday.

Autos: March auto sales fell 35%, but a rise from February levels could suggest the industry has bottomed.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said sales fell 41% from a year ago, although sales were up from January and February levels. Ford, considered to be in the best financial shape of the three Detroit automakers, had been expected to post a decline of 50%.

Toyota Motor (TM) said sales fell 39% and Honda Motor (HMC) said sales fell 36%.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said sales fell 45% in the month, while privately held Chrysler said sales fell 39%.

GM and Chrysler have managed to stay afloat due to billions in aid from the government, but are in danger of being forced into bankruptcy if they can't come up with a plan to stay viable.

The Obama administration rejected both companies' restructuring plans Monday. GM has 60 days to figure out how to cut costs and debt. Chrysler has 30 days to complete a deal with Fiat. Barring that, the government could force both companies into bankruptcy court to restructure.

Economy: Reports on housing, jobs and manufacturing were released in the morning.

The pending home sales index rose 2.1% in February, surprising economists who were expecting a flat reading. Pending home sales fell 7.7% in January.

Private-sector employers cut 742,000 jobs from their payrolls in March after cutting a revised 706,000 in February, according to a report from payroll services firm ADP. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought employers would cut 663,000 jobs. The report was closely watched ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report from the government.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 36.3 in March from 35.8 in February, versus forecasts for a rise to 36.

February construction spending fell 0.9%, the government reported, after dropping a revised 3.5% in January. Economists thought spending would fall 1.9% in the month.

Company news: Diversified manufacturer 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) said it was cutting 1,200 jobs worldwide in the first quarter, or 1.5% of its workforce. Shares of the Dow component rose nearly 2%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to one on volume of 1.5 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one on volume of 2.28 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.65% from 2.66% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mostly higher. The 3-month Libor rate dipped to 1.18% from 1.19% Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate fell to 0.3% from 0.51% Tuesday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower with the exception of the Nikkei. European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery settled down $1.27 to $48.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $2.70 to settle at $927.70 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A handful of economic reports helped stocks reverse early losses to post strong gains. The advance was challenged by a late selling effort for the second straight session, but buyers stepped in to offer their bids.

Stocks initially traded with weakness as participants reacted to an ADP Employment Report that indicated 742,000 jobs were lost in March. Economists expected 663,000 job losses. While the report isn't always a precise predictor of the government's official nonfarm jobs report, which is due Friday, it does present a glimpse into labor market conditions.

Stocks were given a boost upon the release of several other economic reports.

Though the ISM Manufacturing Index for March showed continued contraction in manufacturing, it was essentially in-line with expectations at 36.3, and was up slightly from February's 35.8.

Meanwhile, monthly construction spending for February decreased 0.9%, but that was met with a positive reaction since it wasn't as severe as the 1.9% decline that was widely expected.

A surprise 2.1% increase in February pending home sales also helped improve sentiment. Pending home sales were expected to remain unchanged after declining 7.7% in January.

The broad-based buying effort that followed the reports helped push the S&P 500 past the 800 level, but the move slowed as the benchmark index encountered 810. Still, the S&P 500 was able to close just above that technical hurdle.

Meanwhile, the Dow swung some 275 points from its session low to its close. The reversal was brought about by broad-based strength as 27 of its 30 components logged a gain.

General Motors (GM 1.93, -0.01) was a laggard in the Dow after the company reported U.S. sales for March fell 45% year-over-year. The consensus estimate called for a 48% year-over-year drop.

Ford (F 2.74, +0.11) reported U.S. sales for March fell almost 41% from the prior year, which was slightly less severe than the 45% drop that was expected.

Given the troubles facing global automakers, Honda Motor Company (HMC 25.90, +2.20) announced it will further curtail production in North America, while also reducing salaries.

Health care was the only sector to finish the session with a loss; it spent the entire session in the red before closing 0.3% lower. Biotech stocks traded with considerable weakness after Celgene (CELG 38.47, -5.93) reaffirmed a disappointing forecast. DJ30 +152.68 NASDAQ +23.01 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +13.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 903/1755/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 709/2326/1.50 bln

3:30 pm : Weekly crude oil inventories were more or less in line with expectations, but crude oil still traded with weakness. May crude oil hit session lows at $47.26 per barrel in the afternoon and closed at $48.27 per barrel, down 2.8%.

May natural gas experienced a sharp sell-off at the open of the pit trade and wasn't able to make a sustained recovery. The futures contracts hit session lows at $3.63 and closed the session at $3.68 per contract, down 2.6%.

Precious Metals finished pit trading relatively unchanged.

June gold spiked early in the pit trade to session highs of $935.80 per ounce, but ended the session at $927.70 per ounce, up less than 1%.

May silver contracts traded between $12.83 and $12.99 per ounce for the session. The May contract closed just off session highs at $12.98 per ounce, down just a penny.DJ30 +113.65 NASDAQ +12.25 SP500 +8.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1145/1493/1.9 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 876/2117/1.0 bln

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to flirt with the 810 level as participants head into the final hour of trading. Participants continue to watch whether buyers will push the S&P 500 above the technical hurdle or if sellers will make a late appearance as they did in the prior session.

Meanwhile, the Dow is showing solid gains. It was down roughly 125 points in the early going, but has since completely reversed that decline.DJ30 +141.98 NASDAQ +21.67 SP500 +12.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1010/1607/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 846/2143/906 mln

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to climb higher. The S&P 500 is now flirting with the 810 level, which presented some resistance earlier in the session.

Support remains broad-based as advancing issues on the NYSE outnumber decliners by more than 3-to-1.DJ30 +148.54 NASDAQ +20.79 SP500 +13.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 964/1641/1.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 756/2228/829 mln

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 hits a modest new session high.

General Motors (GM 1.83, -0.11) reported a 42.5% drop in March sales, which was better than the expected drop of 45.8%, CNBC reports. Earlier today, Ford (F 2.62, -0.38) reported March U.S. sales fell 40.9%, versus the expected decline of 45%.

Cleveland Fed President Pianalto said that the housing sector has not regained health, adding that the economy should stabilize by year's end, according to Dow Jones.DJ30 +128.31 NASDAQ +17.68 SP500 +11.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1009/1578/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 820/2158/740 mln

1:30 pm : All three major indices continue to trade with solid gains, but the Dow is outpacing its counterparts.

The Dow's ascent comes amid broad gains; 27 of its 30 components are trading higher.

Boeing (BA 35.24, -0.34), General Motors (GM 1.81, -0.13), and Intel (INTC 15.01, -0.02) are the Dow's current decliners. Their drag, however, is being offset by strength in Caterpillar (CAT 29.03, +1.07).DJ30 +88.72 NASDAQ +12.25 SP500 +7.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1093/1469/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 947/2003/677 mln

1:05 pm : Stocks traded with weakness in the first few minutes of the session, hampered by a discouraging ADP Employment Report, but a separate batch of economic data prompted participants to begin buying.

Each of the major indices were down more than 1.5% in the early going as a selling effort that began late in the prior session extended into Wednesday. The decision to sell was supported by an ADP Employment Report that indicated 742,000 jobs were lost in March, while economists expected 663,000 job losses. The worse-than-expected tally suggests Friday's jobs report could prove disappointing.

Stocks reversed early losses after the ISM Manufacturing Index for March came in at 36.3, which is essentially in-line with the expected reading of 36.0. Though it was up from the February reading of 35.8, the reading still indicates manufacturing activity is contracting.

Construction spending for February decreased 0.9% month-over-month, which is less severe than the 1.9% decline that was expected. Spending fell 3.5% the month before.

February pending home sales showed a surprise increase by climbing 2.1%. They were expected to remain unchanged after declining 7.7% in January.

The broad-based buying effort that followed the midmorning economic reports helped push the S&P 500 back above the 800 level. It has had difficulty climbing to 810, however.

Health care remains the only major sector to trade with a loss. Health care is currently down 0.9%, primarily due to weakness in biotech stocks (-3.8%).

Automakers are also showing weakness, though Treasury Secretary Geithner said no decision has been made to force General Motors (GM 1.82, -0.12) into bankruptcy, according to Reuters. GM is expected to report March North American sales to be down 48%. Ford (F 2.58, -0.05) reported March U.S. sales fell 40.9%.

Education service companies are also seeing pressure, though Apollo Group (APOL 65.50, -12.83) posted better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. DJ30 +80.52 NASDAQ +11.60 SP500 +6.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1059/1493/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 954/1996/635 mln

12:30 pm : Broad-based gains continue to lift the major indices. Telecom is currently seeing the best gain of any major sector as it advances 2.5%, thanks to strength in shares of integrated telcos AT&T (T 25.78, +0.58) and Verizon (VZ 30.98, +0.78).

Materials stocks are also seeing solid gains. The sector is up 2.4% with help from steel stocks (+4.3%) and diversified metals and mining companies (+3.5%).

Though the financial sector isn't sporting the best gains this session, it continues to provide a key element of support. Financials are curently up 2.3% with leadership from Bank of America (7.09, +0.27), which is planning to sell its Columbia Management business and First Republic Bank, according to The Wall Street Journal.DJ30 +104.02 NASDAQ +17.34 SP500 +8.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 939/1571/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 810/2134/571 mln

12:00 pm : The stock market continues adding to earlier gains. The upward move had slowed as the S&P 500 tested the 800 level from the underside, but conviction among buyers has pushed the S&P 500 above that psychological level.

Gains remain broad-based as approximately 70% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 trade higher. DJ30 +82.75 NASDAQ +14.56 SP500 +6.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 937/1524/955 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 832/2076/513 mln

11:30 am : Education service companies are battling a concerted selling effort in the wake of a quarterly earnings report from Apollo Group (APOL 66.90, -11.43).

Apollo posted better-than-expected earnings, student starts, and retention rates amid lower acquisition costs. However, the company did indicate in its conference call that bad debt expense may continue to increase in the near term.

Shares of APOL are at their lowest level in roughly two weeks. Shares of Corinthian Colleges (COCO 18.90, -0.55) and Career Education Corp (CECO 22.11, -1.85) are trading lower in sympathy.DJ30 +62.28 NASDAQ +9.28 SP500 +5.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 998/1426/827 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 961/1927/458 mln

11:00 am : The major indices are sporting solid gains after overcoming a fit of weakness in the first few minutes of trading.

The upward push has been broad-based, but the turnaround by financials is possibly the most impressive. Financials were down as much as 1.8% in the early going, but are now up 2.1% to trade with the best gain of any major sector in the S&P 500.

Health care remains mired in weakness, though it has pulled up from earlier levels. Health care is currently down 1.8%.DJ30 +42.85 NASDAQ +7.86 SP500 +4.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1058/1335/668 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 977/1856/382 mln

10:30 am : Stocks recently extended their ascent, but then pulled back after crossing into positive territory. Meanwhile, commodities are showing considerable weakness as the CRB Commodity Index slides 1.1%.

Crude futures contracts are pricing oil 4.3% lower at $47.50 per barrel after the weekly inventory report showed a build of roughly 2.8 million barrels, which is slightly less than the build of 3.0 million barrels that was expected.

Natural gas prices are also under pressure. Futures contracts were recently being priced 3.4% lower at $3.65 each.

Gold prices are currently up 0.3% to $925.20 per ounce, but silver is trading roughly 0.5% higher at $12.92 per ounce.

The Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourteenth straight session by shedding 2.5%. Once again, all subindexes closed the session lower.DJ30 +19.27 NASDAQ -2.83 SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1204/1133/530 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1223/1552/303 mln

10:00 am : Stocks are curtailing losses as the latest batch of economic data hits news wires. Declines remain broad, though.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for March came in at 36.3, which is essentially in-line with the expected reading of 36.0, and up from the February reading of 35.8.

Meanwhile, the ISM Prices Paid Index came in at 31.0. That was below the consensus estimate of 33.0, but up from the February reading of 29.0.

Construction spending for February decreased 0.9% month-over-month. It was expected to decline 1.9% after a 3.5% monthly drop in January. January's decline was revised from an initial 3.3% decline.

February pending home sales for February were up 2.1% from the prior month. They were expected to remain unchanged after declining 7.7% in January.

Early movers: Trading up: ZZ +51.7%, MV +13%, SHI +12.2%, APL +12.2%, CSIQ +10.7%, LVS +9.6%. Trading down: LWAY -13.8%, CELG -12.9%, TISI -12.7%, APOL -11.9%, AUXL -11.4%, CPF -10.7%, GMXR -10.5%, BRKR -10.4%, AFL -9.1%, ESI -8.5%.DJ30 -60.06 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -6.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1597/627/304 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1733/1007/176 mln

09:45 am : Stocks are being hit with an early bout of stiff selling pressure, which is driving the major indices to sizable losses.

Weakness is broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are trading lower. Health care is showing the worst decline as it trades 2.3% lower. Materials and financials are close behind; both are down 1.9%. Within the financial sector, diversified banks are down 2.1% even though FDIC Chairman Bair stated she is cautiously optimistic the U.S. banking industry is getting on better footing.

Telecom is seeing the softest decline of the major sectors. It is currently off by just 0.2%.DJ30 -81.17 NASDAQ -24.72 SP500 -11.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1615/495/166 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2067/622/109 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.30. Only a few minutes remain before the opening bell tolls, and stock futures continue pointing toward a lower start for the major indices. The downbeat mood comes partly as an extension of the prior session's late selling effort, which slashed gains in the broader market. Weak economic data has only supported the negative bias this morning. According to the ADP Employment Report, 742,000 jobs were lost in March. That exceeded the 663,000 job losses that were expected and suggests an ugly Nonfarm Jobs Report could be in order for Friday. With the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February pending home sales data, and February construction spending due later this morning (10:00 AM ET), economic data will remain in focus amid a lack of market-moving corporate headlines.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50. Stock futures continue to trade below fair value, suggesting a relatively weaker bias ahead of the opening bell. Oil prices are also showing weakness in late electronic trading; crude futures contracts were recently pricing oil 3.1% lower at $48.10 per barrel. However, gold futures contracts are currently pricing gold 0.7% higher at $929.40 per ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is unchanged, according to the Dollar Index.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.00. The major European Indices are trading lower, while Asian stocks continue trading in mixed fashion. France's CAC is currently down 0.5% amid continued weakness in Societe Generale. The stock is facing a loss for the third time in four sessions. The latest weakness follows word from the financial outfit that it expects additional first quarter writedowns, though at a manageable level. Britain's FTSE is currently trading 0.2% lower. HSBC (HBC) is providing support, but weakness in integrated oil companies Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP PLC (BP) are dragging the FTSE lower. Shares of BP were downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones. Germany's DAX is trading just below the unchanged mark as engineering giant Siemens (SI) moves lower after registering gains in the prior session. Deutsche Bank (DB) is trading with leadership and helping to offset weakness in the rest of the index. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei has closed the latest session with an impressive 3.0% gain. Honda Motor (HMC) provided the most leadership. Reports indicate the company plans to further cut North American production and reduce salaries as it contends with the global economic slowdown. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.4% amid weakness in banking stocks, such as China Construction Bank. Energy stocks helped offset the decline, however.

08:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. Stock futures have dipped in the wake of the latest ADP Employment Report, which indicated 742,000 jobs were lost in March. That exceeded the 663,000 job losses that were expected, and is up from the prior month. The reading for February was revised higher to reflect 706,000 jobs lost.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.30. Stock futures are trading with a downward bias ahead of the March ADP Employment Report (8:15 AM ET), which is expected to unveil 663,000 job losses. The report provides a preview of the government's official Nonfarm Payroll Report for March, which is due Friday. The March ISM Manufacturing Index is also due this morning (10:00 AM ET). There are only a few new corporate headlines out. Education provider Apollo Group (APOL) posted earnings of $0.77 per share for its latest quarter, exceeding the $0.65 per share that was expected. However, the stock is down almost 6% to $73.72 per share in premarket trading. Reuters has reported that General Motors (GM) may be considering a bankruptcy plan that splits the company's operations and reforms with the most profitable parts. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported the government may send GM into a controlled bankruptcy. Shares of GM are trading fractionally lower ahead of the opening bell.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30.

06:19 am : Nikkei...8351.91...+242.40...+3.00%. Hang Seng...13519.54...-56.50...-0.40%.

06:19 am : FTSE...3893.82...-32.30...-0.80%. DAX...4035.01...-49.70...-1.20%.


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