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 Post subject: April 30th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:34 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=176

My Trading Performance: +8.25 Emini ES points

"Yesterday I discussed in the chat room that I was expecting a big GAP day and that I was expecting big trade opportunities. Well...today I had too much personal stuff and I missed 3 - 4 good trade opportunities that prevented me from reaching my trading goal for the day."

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Wall Street Mixed in Wobbly Session
Stocks struggle as weakness in oil and bank shares temper rally in tech. Investors take Chrysler bankruptcy in stride.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 30, 2009: 5:42 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended mixed Thursday after an earlier rally lost steam, as weakness in financial and oil stocks vied with strength in technology and industrial shares.

Investors seemed to take in stride news that Chrysler filed for bankruptcy, a development that boosted shares of rivals General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500).

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 17 points or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index ended just below unchanged. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 5 points, or 0.3% and ended at a nearly six-month high.

Stocks had rallied broadly in the early going as investors continued to welcome signs that the pace of the economic slowdown appears to be easing. But after an early upswing, stocks turned mixed, with oil, gold and other commodities shares dropping.

Stocks rose Wednesday after the Federal Reserve gave a more upbeat outlook on the economy and the otherwise bleak first-quarter GDP report showed a surprise rise in consumer spending.

Bets that the economy is not far from finding its footing have boosted stocks for nearly two months, lifting the Dow by roughly 25% since it hit 12-year lows on March 9.

"Given the incrementally positive economic data we've seen over the last month or so and the thawing in the credit markets, stocks have been performing better," said James Moore, equity research department, Morgan Joseph.

"These gains could continue, but that will depend on the banks getting healthier," he said. "In the short term, the results from the stress tests will tell us how they are doing."

On Monday, the government releases the results of its "stress tests" of the nation's largest banks. Jitters ahead of the results have weighed on financial stocks recently, particularly after reports circulated earlier this week that said Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) will both need to increase their capital should the economy deteriorate further.

Friday brings earnings reports from Chevron and economic reports on consumer sentiment, factory orders and auto and truck sales. The biggest potential market mover will be the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index.

Chrysler: The automaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday, confirming earlier reports. However, a deal has been negotiated to combine the company with Italian automaker Fiat - allowing it to stay in business.

Chrysler was fighting against the clock to reduce debt, but some of the automaker's smaller lenders balked at giving in to the Treasury Department's demands to reduce the amount of debt outstanding. Chrysler already reached an agreement with its union on concessions, another necessary step if it had wanted to avoid bankruptcy.

The company will continue to operate while under bankruptcy protection. (Full story)

Investors seemed to take the news in stride as both Chrysler and rival General Motors have been flirting with the threat of bankruptcy for months.

Oil companies: Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that missed analysts' forecasts on weaker revenue that topped forecasts. Shares fell 2.6%.

Other oil stocks fell too, including Dow component Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500) and Schlumberger (SLB).

Quarterly results: Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that topped estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates.

Fellow consumer products maker Colgate-Palmolive (CL, Fortune 500) also posted lower earnings that beat forecasts on lower revenue that missed expectations.

Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings after the market close Wednesday that nonetheless topped estimates.

In other company news, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) said late Wednesday that Ken Lewis had been removed as chairman, but will stay on as CEO and president.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by eight to seven on volume of 1.74 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers and decliners were roughly even on volume of 2.86 billion shares.

Economy: Weekly jobless claims slipped to 631,000 last week from a revised 645,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 640,000 new claims. Continuing claims - the number of people receiving benefits for a week or more - topped 6.27 million for the first time.

Personal income and spending fell more than expected in March. Income fell 0.3% after falling 0.2% in February. Economists thought income would fall 0.2%. Spending fell 0.2% after rising 0.4% in February. Economists thought it would fall 0.1%.

The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, continued the recent trend of not-as-bad-as-expected reports. The index rose to 40.1 in April from 31.4 in March, a 7-month high and well above economists' expectations for a rise to 35.

The Labor Department's Employment Cost Index rose by 0.3% in the first quarter, the lowest rise on record and short of the 0.5% increase economists were expecting.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.11% from 3.09% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.02% from 1.03% Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate was unchanged at 0.23%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 15 cents to settle at $51.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $9.30 to settle at $891.20 an ounce.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : Continued strength in cyclical stocks helped the stock market get off to an impressive start, but Thursday's trading session concluded in lackluster fashion after sellers moved against energy and financial stocks.

The stock market began the session with broad-based strength and climbed as high as 1.7%. The positive tone followed a deluge of earnings reports, which were generally better than expected and helped investors look past another dreary dose of weekly jobless data.

Buyers favored materials stocks and industrial stocks in the early going. At their highs, the two sectors were up as much as 3.9% and 3.0%, respectively. Materials finished with a gain of 3.0%, while industrials closed 0.7% higher.

The interest in materials and industrials compounded their recent gains, which have been underpinned by the belief that such early cycle stocks will be the first to recover when economic conditions improve. That argument has pushed materials stocks up 16% in the past month and industrial stocks up 19% in the past month.

Trading volume picked up in the final few minutes of the session to come in-line with recent trends. Until that time, the apparent lack of conviction in the broader market's climb seemed to enable sellers to rally around energy and financial stocks and cause the broader market to buckle. Many expected money managers and investors to increase their involvement this session by partaking in some end-of-month window dressing.

Energy finished as the worst performing sector by closing with a 2.1% loss. Oil and gas drillers (-3.5%) were some of the weakest performers, but weakness in integrated energy plays like Exxon Mobil (XOM 66.67, -1.77) caused the most damage in the sector, due to their market weight. Exxon Mobil faltered after reporting earnings results that missed analysts' expectations.

Financials fell under pressure as investors pushed back against bank stocks, which led gains in the prior session. Financials closed 0.8% lower.DJ30 -17.61 NASDAQ +5.36 SP500 -0.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1335/2.79 bln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/1.74 bln/1373

3:35 pm : June crude oil futures contracts hit session lows early in the morning at $50.21 per barrel but were able to recover and finish the session in positive territory at $51.16 per barrel, up $0.3%.

June natural gas contracts hit session lows of $3.40 per contract in the morning. These contracts also recovered and were able to finish the session down slightly at $3.37, down less than 1%.

June gold was down substantially to $880.10 per ounce early in the session. The futures rose from these lows throughout the rest of the session, though. They closed still at $891.20 per ounce, still down 1%

July silver futures contracts traded around the $12.40 per ounce level for most of the afternoon and closed at $12.33 per ounce, down 3.5%. The contracts were down as much as 4.6% on the session at its lows in the morning.DJ30 +8.28 NASDAQ +7.8 SP500 +1.1 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1433/2.1 bln/1258 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1791/1.1 bln/1221

3:00 pm : Despite a lack of clear direction among stocks, Treasuries remain under pressure. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down another 3 ticks this session. That has pushed its yield above 3.1%, its highest yield this year.DJ30 +9.71 NASDAQ +13.03 SP500 +3.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1479/2.08 bln/1198 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1822/997 mln/1184

2:30 pm : Stocks have recovered back to positive ground, but the major indices remain well off of their session highs.

Utilities stocks are showing continued weakness, though. The sector is down 0.6% as strength in Dominion Resources (D 29.96, +0.35) and NRG Energy (NRG 17.69, +0.51), stirred by better-than-expected quarterly earnings per share results, is offset by weakness in shares of Southern (SO 28.85, -0.74). Southern actually posted upbeat results in the prior session.DJ30 +22.85 NASDAQ +15.26 SP500 +3.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/1.95 bln/1143 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/929 mln/1121

1:55 pm : The major indices find some support as they recover to the unchanged mark.

Market breadth leans positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by 7-to-5 on the NYSE and by 6-to-5 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 -2.47 NASDAQ +6.97 SP500 -0.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1439/1.78 bln/1191 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1719/839 mln/1271

1:30 pm : Sellers continue to pressure energy stocks (-3.0%) and financial stocks (-0.8%). Losses in the two sectors have undercut the broader market and taken it into negative territory.

Despite the downward move, materials stocks continue to trade with enviable gains. The sector is currently up 2.4%.

Large-cap tech is also holding on to its gains, helping the tech-rich Nasdaq remain in positive ground. Large-cap tech is actually lifting the Nasdaq 100 to a 0.6% gain.DJ30 -25.09 NASDAQ +5.10 SP500 -2.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1402/1.67 bln/1221 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1656/791 mln/1316

1:00 pm : Led by early cycle stocks, the major indices climbed to impressive heights in the early going. However, the upward move has recently come under pressure as a sharp selloff in energy stocks and financial stocks is threatening to completely reverse the broader market's earlier gains.

Early buying was driven by participants' pursuit of materials stocks (+2.6%) and industrial stocks (+0.9%), which have made marked advances in recent weeks as investors wager that the sectors will lead an economic recovery. The argument that consumers will help drive an economic recovery is helping lift shares of retailers (+2.24) and other consumer discretionary stocks (+2.2%). That belief gained support yesterday, when the advance first quarter GDP report revealed a stronger-than-expected upturn in consumer spending.

Still, plenty of hurdles threaten to undermine consumer spending, namely mounting job losses. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25 were down 14,000 week-over-week to 631,000, just below the 640,000 initial claims that were expected. Continuing claims climbed 133,000 to reach a record high of 6.27 million, which was a bit more than expected.

Separate economic reports indicate personal income for March slipped 0.3%, while personal spending decreased 0.2%. Both readings were largely in-line with expectations.

The stock market is now trading along the unchanged mark after sporting a gain of 1.7% at its session high. The pullback comes amid selling pressure in oil and gas drillers (-4.1%) and oil and gas equipment stocks (-3.7%), which are taking the energy stocks to a 3.0% loss.

Financials have also surrendered nearly all of their gains. The sector had been trading markedly higher amid strength in consumer finance stocks (+3.3%), but selling in diversified financial services (-0.1%) and regional banks (-0.5%) is undercutting the sector.DJ30 +7.64 NASDAQ +16.80 SP500 +0.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/1.51 bln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1847/722 mln/1117

12:30 pm : Shares of automakers are up 9.5% as President Obama concludes his speech regarding the auto industry in the wake of Chrysler's decision to enter bankcruptcy.

Chrysler's decision to file Chapter 11 follows a long battle against stiff macro headwinds and intense competition. Meanwhile, Ford (F 5.87, +0.42) continues to contend it does not need government assistance to remain viable, and General Motors (GM 1.91, +0.10) recently announced a massive restructuring.

Chrysler's CEO, Bob Nardelli, will leave the company after it emerges from bankruptcy, according to CNBC. Nardelli is a former Home Depot (HD 26.81, +0.47) CEO.DJ30 +45.63 NASDAQ +31.08 SP500 +5.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1676/1.34 bln/875 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2062/646 mln/888

12:00 pm : Selling pressure around energy stocks has suddenly intensified, taking the sector to a 1.6% loss. The attack appears to be mostly focused on some of the sector's larger holdings rather than the entire sector.

Exxon Mobil (XOM 66.57, -1.87) remains a primary laggard in the energy sector. Integrated energy peer Chevron (CVX 65.94, -1.62) is trading lower in sympathy. Oil and gas operations outfit Noble Energy (NBL 57.17, -3.10) is also showing considerable weakness. The company actually posted better-than-expected earnings results this morning.

Crude oil prices aren't really contributing to the sector's weakness. The commodity is down just 0.2% to $50.85 per barrel.DJ30 +68.17 NASDAQ +31.14 SP500 +8.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1712/1.18 bln/828 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2156/566 mln/776

11:30 am : The major indices recently registered fresh session highs, but have since pulled back a bit. The upward move has largely been led by strong gains among materials stocks (+3.7%), consumer discretionary stocks (+3.5%), and industrial stocks (+2.5%).

Financials are also providing support, but to a lesser extent. The financial sector is currently up 1.8%, which is impressive in its own right, but not as exciting as the 4.8% gain that the sector logged in the prior session.

Bank stocks are providing leadership to the financial sector for the second straight session, but this time around the sector is getting a bit more help from shares of consumer finance companies (+4.5%) and investment banks and brokerages (+1.6%). DJ30 +100.75 NASDAQ +38.41 SP500 +12.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1757/1.00 bln/739 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2309/488 mln/611

11:00 am : Broadcasting company CBS (CBS 7.39, +1.04) is putting together its best single-session advance by percent since soaring almost 20% less than two weeks ago. The stock's strength this session follows some positive analyst commentary.

Meanwhile, media outfit Viacom (VIA.B 20.90, +0.46) is also trading with strength. It posted this morning better-than-expected earnings per share results for the latest quarter. Shares of VIA.B had been downgraded by analysts at Barclays earlier this month.DJ30 +100.59 NASDAQ +37.24 SP500 +13.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1729/842 mln/724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2288/413 mln/593

10:30 am : Gold prices are under considerable pressure. Futures contracts for the yellow metal are pricing the stuff 1.7% lower at $885.30 per ounce. Gold prices haven't made such a sharp drop since shedding 2.7% in early April.

Silver prices are also down. Futures contracts are pricing silver at $12.27 per ounce, down nearly 4.0%.

The move against precious metals comes as investors become less risk averse and pursue stocks. Gold and silver prices are also being pressured by a rebounding U.S. dollar, which is up 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies after shedding 1.4% during the course of the past two sessions.

Weakness in gold and silver contract prices are countering better-than-expected earnings results from Newmont Mining (NEM 39.35, -1.36), which is trading as a primary laggard in the materials sector (+3.4%).

In the energy trade, crude oil prices are currently down 0.2% to $50.90 per barrel after climbing more than 2% in the prior session. Meanwhile, natural gas contracts are being priced 2.6% lower at $3.32 each.

Lower energy prices and disappointing earnings results from integrated energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 67.21, -1.23) are causing energy stocks to lag the broader market; the sector is down 0.2%.DJ30 +107.20 NASDAQ +37.24 SP500 +12.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/632 mln/614 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2285/313 mln/530

10:00 am : The Nasdaq is currently outperforming its counterparts as large-cap tech stocks stage a solid advance. Still, all three headline indices are trading with healthy gains.

Technology stocks, which make up the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, are currently up 1.7%. The sector's advance comes amid leadership from Microsoft (MSFT 20.84, +0.59), Cisco (CSCO 19.73, +0.48), Intel (INTC 15.89, +0.54), and IBM (IBM 105.80, +1.76). With the exception of IBM, all are listed on the Nasdaq.

Early movers: Trading up: MGM +47.1%, BARE +30.9%, OI +30.2%, GMCR +29.5%, REV +22.9%, SKX +21.8%, EXPE +19.6%, GTLS +18.7%, FSLR +18%, AEG +17.4%, SPR +17.1%, PCX +16.2%, OMX +16%, DOW +15.7%, NWL +15.3%, VARI +14.9%, SRZ +14.6%, RBS +13.6%, AMKR +13.6%, LVS +12.7%, ICO +12.1%, SFLY +12.1%, MRX +11.9%, SHO +11.7%, GMR +11.5%, CTXS +11.2%, CSIQ +10.5% Trading down: SQNM -75.6%, EROC -35.9%, ISYS -17.1%, FORM -12.7%, OSK -12.6%, JDSU -11.3%DJ30 +97.48 NASDAQ +30.23 SP500 +10.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/411 mln/595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2233/208 mln/505

09:45 am : Despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings results from consumer staples giants Procter & Gamble (PG 48.58, -1.84) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 58.99, -0.72), the consumer staples sector (-0.3%) is lagging the broader market in the early going. In fact, consumer staples is the only sector currently in the red.

Part of the sector's underperformance is attributable to participants' interest in chasing stocks that have made marked advances in recent weeks. That pursuit is effectively compounding gains seen among early cycle stocks, like those in the materials sector (+3.0%) and the industrial sector (+2.1%). Meanwhile, continued hope for a consumer-led economic recovery is helping lift consumer discretionary stocks (+2.4%); retailers are up 1.9%.

However, the notion that consumer spending will help lead an economic recovery is being challenged by continued job losses. Continuing jobless claims stand at record highs, while March data indicates personal spending declined 0.2% amid a 0.3% decline in personal income. However, core personal consumption expenditures for March increased 0.2% month-over-month.DJ30 +97.72 NASDAQ +27.80 SP500 +11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/243 mln/571 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/142 mln/443

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.30. The prior session's positive tone has carried over into premarket trading, helping position stocks for a strong start. Part of the buying interest comes as money managers and investment funds attempt to juggle their portfolio holdings for end-of-month reporting. However, a batch of generally better-than-expected earnings results is also prompting some buying activity.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.80. Strength in European bank stocks and financial services stocks is helping lift the DAX, FTSE, and CAC to higher ground. Germany's DAX is currently sporting a 2.4% gain as Muenchener Rueckver and Allianz (AZ) trade markedly higher. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are also showing strenght, while Deutsche Boerse is among the session's primary leaders. Britain's FTSE is up 2.0% as HSBC (HBC), Standard Chartered, and Barclays (BCS) provide leadership. Shares of BCS were actually upgraded by analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland. Lloyd's Group (LYG) is also showing strength, but its shares were downgraded by analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland. In France, the CAC is up 1.8% amid strength in BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), and Societe Generale. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 3.3% on better-than-expected Japanese production data and news that a mainland Chinese firm is making an investment in Taiwan for the the first time since 1949. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei climbed 3.9% amid strength in exporters, which was spurred by reports that Japanese industrial production for March climbed 1.6%. That was a greater increase than expected, and the first advance in six months. Honda (HMC) saw strong gains after forecasting a small profit for this year. However, Pioneer tumbled after the company said it aimed to raise capital to shore up its balance sheet. After the Nikkei closed, the Bank of Japan said that Japan's economy is likely to start recovering moderately in the second half of this financial year. Dow Jones reported the central bank voted to keep its overnight call loan rate unchanged at 0.10%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed advanced 3.8%. Foxconn International soared in response to China Mobile's (CHL) indication that it will buy a 12% stake in Taiwanese mobile carrier Far EasTone. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 0.4% higher. In Taiwan, the Taiex closed 6.7% higher, which is the biggest gain since 1991. Buying followed news that Far EasTone Telecommunications would receive an investment from China Mobile.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25 totaled 631,000, which isn't quite as bad as the 640,000 initial claims that were expected. Initial claims decreased 14,000 from the prior week. Meanwhile, continuing claims climbed 133,000 from the prior week to reach a record high of 6.27 million. That is a bit more than the 6.20 million continuing claims that were widely anticipated. Separately, personal income for March slipped 0.3%, which is generally on par with the decline of 0.2% that was expected. February's reading was revised upward to reflect no change. Meanwhile, personal spending for March decreased 0.2%. It was expected to decrease 0.1% following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in the prior month. Core personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% month-over-month, and increased 1.8% year-over-year. Economists were expecting a month-over-month increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 1.8%. Stock futures continue pointing to a solid start for the major indices.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.00. Approximately 150 companies are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results this morning. Thus far, earnings per share results have generally been better-than-expected, helping to prop up stock futures. Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG) generated $0.84 per share for its latest fiscal quarter. The earnings results were $0.04 better than the consensus of $0.80 per share. The company indicated it is comfortable with analysts' current consensus earnings per share estimate of $4.22 per share for the company's fiscal year. Shares of PG are up 2.1% to $51.49 per share in premarket action. Peer Colgate-Palmolive (CL) generated earnings of $0.97 per share during the first quarter. Analysts, on average, were looking for just $0.96 per share. The company expressed that it is comfortable with external profit expectations for the second quarter and the year; the current second quarter consensus stands at $1.05 per share, while the full-year consensus stands at $4.21 per share. Shares of CL are up nearly 2.2% to $61.00 per share ahead of the opening bell. Last evening, Visa (V) announced earnings of $0.73 per share for its second fiscal quarter. The consensus called for $0.64 per share. Visa sees annual adjusted diluted common stock earnings per share growth exceeding 20%. Shares of V are up nearly 1.9% to $64.74 per share in premarket trading. At the bottom of the hour, participants will turn their attention to the latest jobless claims data. Personal income and spending data for March are scheduled to be released simultaneously.

06:45 am : Nikkei...8828.26...+334.50...+3.90%. Hang Seng...15520.99...+564.00...+3.80%.

06:45 am : FTSE...4288.80...+99.20...+2.40%. DAX...4832.92...+128.10...+2.70%.

06:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.00

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