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 Post subject: March 11th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2009 7:03 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
No trades today for me due to my ISP having an outage in my area during the a.m. trading session. However, you can still read today's trades and commentaries that were posted in real-time by other members of #FuturesTrades chat room and their trades are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=129

My Trading Performance: 0.00 Emini ES points

Note: I never trade in the p.m. trading session if I was unable to monitor the real-time price action of the a.m. trading session.

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Techs rally for 2nd session
Nasdaq jumps for the second session in a row, while the Dow and S&P 500 end barely higher.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 11, 2009: 6:14 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Wednesday, with tech stocks leading the way, as the Dow Jones industrial average squeaked out a higher close for the second session in a row for the first time in five weeks.

After the close, mortgage lender Freddie Mac reported its sixth straight quarterly loss and asked the government for another $30.8 billion.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 4 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 13 points, or 1% and has now gained 8% in two sessions.

Stocks had rallied in the early going and seesawed through the afternoon before making another rally attempt near the close. The session was buffeted by plunging oil prices and ongoing worries about the bank sector.

The market rose Tuesday, with all three major gauges posting their biggest gains of the year. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) cooled some worries about its future after it said that it was profitable in the first two months of the year, surprising investors who have been worrying that it can't stay afloat. Financial stocks also gained after regulators said they may reinstate the "uptick rule" that stops short sellers from driving a floundering stock lower.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended Monday's session at 12-year lows and the Nasdaq at 6-year lows, following over two months of selling on worries about the global recession.Tuesday's advance was partly in response to that rout.

However, it's too soon to tell if a so-called market bottom was put in place, analysts say. Many market pros thought stocks had bottomed in October and then in November and as the recent selloff showed, that proved not to be true.

"Until proven otherwise, we're in a bear market and this is a rally in a bear market and not something more," said Gary Flam, portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

Flam said that typically the biggest rallies occur in bear markets. He also said that he doesn't buy the argument that since Citigroup said it might be profitable, and the uptick rule might be reinstated, that the market is now on better footing.

"Financials need to bottom first because they are important in terms of driving the market, but also because the sector plays a big role in the economy," Flam said. "The fact that the banking institutions have not been stabilized is the reason the economy has not been stabilized.".

As of Wednesday, the Dow is off 21% year-to-date, the S&P 500 is down 20% and the Nasdaq is down 14%.

Thursday brings reports on February retail sales, weekly jobless claims, January business inventories and the Congressional hearing on mark-to-market accounting.

Stocks movers: Financial stocks were mostly higher, but off their best levels as investors geared up for the congressional hearing Thursday on mark-to-market accounting.

Critics say the accounting rule has exacerbated losses for the sector by forcing banks to write down bad assets at fire sale prices. Advocates say it provides a clear picture of the assets banks are holding.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) CEO Jamie Dimon said he sees modest signs of an economic recovery and that he supports a plan to create a U.S. risk regulator. Shares gained 4.6%

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) all advanced.

Technology stocks rallied, including Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Dell (DELL, Fortune 500), eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) and Google (GOOG, Fortune 500).

Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) surged 5.8% on a UBS upgrade, Reuters reported.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to two on volume of 1.75 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by a narrow margin on volume of 2.24 billion shares.

Economy: The February budget deficit increased by $192.8 billion in February, the government reported, short of forecasts for a rise of $205 billion, according to Briefing.com estimates. The deficit for the first five months of fiscal 2009 rose to a record $764.5 billion, over $300 billion more than the entire deficit for fiscal 2008, which was a record. The deficit has been rising because of lower tax revenue and higher government spending on the bank bailout plan.

Four states' jobless rates jumped more than 10% in January, the government said Wednesday. The states were Michigan, South Carolina, Rhode Island and California. In January, 49 states and the District of Columbia saw higher month-over-month jobless rates. Only Louisiana bucked the trend.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking ahead of the G-20 financial summit next month, urged global leaders to increase their efforts to help the world economy amid a deepening recession.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched lower, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.02% from 3% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were unchanged. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.33%, while the overnight Libor rate held at 0.33%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets rallied and European markets gained in afternoon trading.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery settled down $3.38 to $42.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped after the government's report showed crude supplies rose last week, while Chinese consumption dropped.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $14.80 to settle at $910.70 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks showed solid gains in the early going, but the advance was rebuffed by a round of profit taking. Choppy trading ensued, leading stocks to close with a modest gain.

Financials were up more than 5% in the early going. Diversified banks (+3.2%) and other diversified financial services companies (+4.3%) were among the sector's strongest performers. Citigroup (C 1.54, +0.09) also traded higher, though it wasn't quite the leader that it was in the prior session.

Market watchers await details from tomorrow's congressional committee meeting, which will examine mark-to-market accounting rules. The rules have driven massive write-downs at banks and other financial companies; temporarily suspending the rules could remove an overhang from many financial companies, potentially allowing their shares to rip higher.

Removal of the uptick rule is another regulatory change that has been proposed. However, Washington has sent mixed signals regarding the rules, so basing trades on speculation the government may change existing rules could prove treacherous.

A mix of profit taking and uncertainty surrounding financial stocks turned the financial sector's early gain into a fractional loss. Financials were able to climb back, though. They finished 2.4% higher.

The broader market seemed to take its cues from the financial sector for the second straight session.

Each of the major indices climbed more than 1% in the early going. However, the S&P 500 was rebuffed after failing to push through 730, while the Dow failed to crack 7000.

The stock market's failure to extend its advance amid ongoing uncertainty in the financial system and broader economy opened the door for profit taking, which resulted in a choppy session. Stocks retreated into the red, but rebounded. Sellers redoubled their efforts in the final leg of trading, limiting the gains for the session.

Health care (-2.0%) was the session's worst performing sector. Pfizer (PFE 12.79, -0.30) was a primary laggard. Its credit rating was lowered by Moody's to Aa2 from Aa1.

Energy (-1.2%) was also a notable laggard. Its weakness followed a 7.4% drop in crude oil prices, which finished pit trading near $42.35 per barrel.

There were no earnings announcements or economic reports of consequence to influence the direction of trade, though a CNBC report indicated JPMorgan Chase (JPM 20.40, +0.90) was profitable in the first two months of the year.

Tomorrow's earnings calendar is also absent of market movers. However, advance retail sales for February are due tomorrow, along with January business inventories, and weekly jobless claims data.

Treasury Secretary Geithner will testify tomorrow before the Senate Budget Committee on the 2010 Budget.

The G-20 also meets this week. Agenda items include how to ensure economic recovery and restart growth, and how to reform and coordinate the international regulatory and supervisory system to ensure that no such crisis occurs again. DJ30 +3.91 NASDAQ +13.36 NQ100 +1.2% R2K -0.4% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +1.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1343/1342/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1263/1822/1.75 bln

3:30 pm : The equity markets have managed to fight back into positive territory. Meanwhile, energy stocks (-0.7%) are lagging.

April crude oil lost 7.4% for the session to close at $42.33 per barrel. April crude oil contracts hit session lows of $42.08 per barrel. Selling pressure intensified on a larger-than-expected inventory build.

April natural gas dropped 1.3% to finish at $3.80 per contract.

Precious metals recovered somewhat from the prior session's sell-off. April gold ended higher by 1.7% to close at $910.80 per ounce. The session high was recorded at $913.80 per ounce. May silver finished up 2.1% at $12.80 per ounce.DJ30 +32.02 NASDAQ +18.00 SP500 +5.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1258/1401/1.8 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1116/1946/1.3 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices have recovered from their lows. Action is still mixed, though.

Half of the sectors in the S&P 500 are trading with losses. Consumer staples (-0.4%), industrials (-0.1%), utilities (-0.1%), energy (-1.2%), and health care (-2.0%) are all in the red.

Within the utilities sector, Exelon (EXC 40.85, -1.72) is a primary laggard. Its shares fell this session to a new multiyear low after being downgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Schlumberger (SLB 38.66, -0.86) remains a laggard in the energy sector after being downgraded by analysts at Citigroup.

Pfizer (PFE 12.79, -0.31) is dragging the health care sector lower. Its credit rating was lowered by Moody's.DJ30 -8.84 NASDAQ +7.51 SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1411/1229/1.66 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1395/1669/1.19 bln

2:30 pm : Selling pressure has intensified, taking all three major indices into the red to trade at their worst levels of the session.

Stocks actually moved higher in early action. The advance marked an extension of the prior session's rebound. The advance, however, was challenged as sellers moved in to take profits.

With stocks back on the downslope, Treasuries have garnered interest. The benchmark 10-year Note was down this morning, but is now up 28 ticks. DJ30 -50.41 NASDAQ -0.29 SP500 -5.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1435/1178/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1504/1539/1.09 bln

2:00 pm : Stocks have pulled up a bit, but remain well off their session highs.

According to reports, Ford (F 1.96, +0.11) indicated that recent modifications to its contract with the United Auto Workers union will help align the wages it pays its workers with those paid by foreign automakers.

The news is helping shares of Ford climb 6.0%. Taken with the prior session's advance, shares of Ford are putting together their best back-to-back performance since late February when Ford surged more than 26% during a two day span.

Meanwhile, competitors General Motors (GM 1.86, -0.03) and Toyotal Motor (TM 59.58, -0.60) are trading lower. Honda Motor (HMC 22.50, +0.63) is sporting a gain, though.DJ30 +17.76 NASDAQ +13.09 SP500 +2.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1261/1328/1.37 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1255/1771/1.00 bln

1:30 pm : The Nasdaq Composite Index continues to trade with a solid gain. Its strength comes on the heals of large-cap tech names like Google (GOOG 315.80, +7.63), Cisco (CSCO 15.02, +0.39), and Microsoft (MSFT 16.82, +0.34). Apple (AAPL 93.14, +4.51), however, is currently providing the most support to the Nasdaq.

The strength in large-cap tech is helping the Nasdaq outpeform the other headline indices, which are now trading with losses. Even the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index and Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index are trading lower. They are down, 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.DJ30 -20.07 NASDAQ +6.96 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1257/1303/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1339/1680/936 mln

1:00 pm : The stock market began the session with solid gains, led by financials for the second straight day. The move has since come under pressure, though, as participants move to take profits.

Stocks logged their best single-session performance in months Tuesday, which marked just the fourth advance out of the last 17 sessions. Still, the fresh breeze of buying spurred gains in overseas markets, which helped renew optimism in U.S. markets.

Major U.S. indices quickly climbed to gains in excess of 1.0% in the early going. The ascent was broad-based, but financial stocks were the best performers as they climbed to a gain of nearly 5.4%. That advance came on top of the more than 15% advance registered in the prior session.

However, the stock market's advance encountered resistance as the S&P 500 tested the 730 level. It twice tested 730 before sellers redoubled their efforts.

Given the troubles still facing the financial system and the broader economy, coupled with the stock market's struggle to extend its advance, market participants have opted to lock in the recent gains.

There hasn't been any compelling earnings or economic data of late to support the bid for stocks, either. DJ30 -29.31 NASDAQ +3.62 SP500 -1.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1220/1327/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1319/1677/867 mln

12:30 pm : Strength in Monsanto (MON 80.60, +2.94) and Newmont Mining (NEM 36.86, +1.83) has helped materials replace financials as the session's best performing sector. Materials stocks are now up 2.0%. Financials are now up 1.1% after sporting an early gain in excess of 5%.

Health care is now the worst performing sector. It is now down 1.5% amid weakness in Abbott Labs (ABT 45.27, -1.71) and Pfizer (PFE 12.79, -0.30).

Energy has joined this session's laggards. The sector is down as Schlumberger (SLB 38.98, -0.54) trades with weakness. SLB was actually downgraded by analysts at Citigroup.

Energy stocks have also been pressured by a drop in crude oil futures prices. Crude oil is currently down 2.3% to $44.70 per barrel after the weekly crude oil build was larger than expected. DJ30 +10.60 NASDAQ +9.13 SP500 +2.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1083/1437/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1110/1875/786 mln

12:00 pm : Equities continue to drift lower. The slide actually took the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the red, but the blue chip index has since recovered to trade with a modest gain.

The downward drift by stocks comes as the prior session's enthusiasm eases. Tuesday's rebound was just the fourth advance in 17 sessions. During that time, the S&P 500 fell almost 14%. So, even though stocks bounced more than 6% higher Tuesday, they still have to climb another 16% to make their way back to where they began the 17-session rut.DJ30 +22.46 NASDAQ +12.35 SP500 +4.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1006/1463/936 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1032/1927/701 mln

11:30 am : Stocks are going on the slide as all three major indices slip to their lowest levels since the first few minutes of trading. Nonetheless, the headline indices still show healthy gains.

Defensive-oriented stocks have fallen out of favor this session. Consumer staples are down 0.2%. Joining the sector in the red, health care stocks are trading with a 0.4% loss, and utilities are down 0.3%.

Though the headline indices are pulling back, strong and steady gains are being exhibited by the Amex Airline Index (+3.3%) and the Dow Jones Transportation Index (+2.9%).DJ30 +24.38 NASDAQ +14.94 SP500 +4.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 871/1558/794 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 994/1943/604 mln

11:00 am : Although stocks have pulled back from session highs broad-based gains remain.

Roughly 65% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading higher. However, more than 97% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished the prior session in positive territory.

The Nasdaq composite is outpacing its counterparts, thanks to large-cap tech. The large-cap tech dominated Nasdaq 100 is up 1.7%.DJ30 +54.64 NASDAQ +23.04 SP500 +8.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 699/1659/657 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 805/2106/508 mln

10:30 am : While the broader market has stalled, financial stocks have climbed to session highs. The sector is now up 5.0% with continued leadership from diversified banks Bank of America (BAC 5.38, +0.59), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 20.74, +1.24), Bank of America (BAC 5.38, +0.59), and US Bank (USB 13.22, +1.81). Shares of USB were actually upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones.

Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks are trading as laggards. The sector is currently down 0.2% as Wal-Mart (WMT 47.45, -0.94) and Kraft (KFT 21.44, -0.36) weigh on the group's performance. DJ30 +65.71 NASDAQ +26.00 SP500 +10.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 536/1758/490 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 619/2247/395 mln

10:05 am : Stocks continue to sport solid gains. The S&P 500 has been resisted at the 730 level, though. The Dow has hesitated at 7000.

Commodities are trading in mixed fashion, however. The CRB Commodity Index is down just 0.2%.

Gold prices are up 0.6% after logging two consecutive losses. Contracts for April delivery are currently pricing gold at $900.60 per ounce.

Silver is also up modestly. Contracts for May delivery currently price silver 0.5% higher at $12.60 per ounce.

Crude oil futures are moving lower for the second straight session after advancing substantially Monday, when speculation arose that OPEC may further cut output. Crude futures contracts are currently pricing oil 2.0% lower at $44.75 per barrel.

Natural gas contracts for April delivery are currently pricing natural gas 1.2% higher at $3.89 each.

Early Movers: Trading up: FOE +164.4%, PACR +18.8%, HIL +18.7%, FFG +17.5%, C-I +14.1%, C-P +13.5%, C-M +13.2%, AINV +12.3%, JTX +11.5%, GMXR +11.4%, TTI +9.3%, JCG +9.1%. Trading down: TBSI -22.4%, HBC -12.1%, PSS -10.9%, DRYS -10.1%, PLD -9.4%, DCT -7.7%, CBG -7.4%, FNF -7.3%, AXP -7.2%, LPL -7.2%.DJ30 +65.55 NASDAQ +19.34 SP500 +9.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 449/1764/323 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 583/2220/291 mln

09:45 am : The major indices are extending the prior session's gains. The advance continues to be led by financial stocks, which are up 2.8%.

Diversified financial services companies (+5.1%), diversified banks (+4.8%), and investment banks and brokerages (+3.8%) are showing the most strength within the financial sector. Citigroup (C 1.63, +0.18), Bank of America (BAC 5.25, +0.46), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 20.35, +0.85) are providing the most support at the individual level, though their gains aren't as robust as those registered in the prior session.DJ30 +40.07 NASDAQ +7.68 SP500 +5.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 572/1475/163 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 817/1835/177 mln

09:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures continue pointing toward a positive start for the major indices as participants look to extend the prior session's rebound. Traders will be watching whether stocks attract the share volume necessary to turn the rebound into a meaningful and sustainable rally, or whether the move was a short-term spurt. Stocks certainly have plenty to overcome, given the conditions facing the financial system and the broader economy. Several earnings announcements and forecasts were issued ahead of the opening bell, but few are expected to have a meaningful impact on the stock market's direction. Collective Brands (PSS) posted a worse-than-expected loss of $0.55 per share. It is trading roughly 1.2% lower at $9.58 per share in premarket action. Take-Two (TTWO) is down 6.6% to $6.40 per share in premarket trading. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.52 per share for its latest quarter. The consensus called for a loss of $0.72 per share. However, the company forecast an adjusted loss ranging from $0.20 to $0.10 per share, which fails to meet the consensus earnings estimate of $0.03 per share. J. Crew (JCG) posted an adjusted fourth quarter loss of $0.20 per share, which was less severe than expected. The company expects first quarter earnings to range from $0.07 to $0.12 per share, which brackets the consensus forecast of $0.10 per share. Shares of JCG are up 5.5% to $10.25 per share ahead of the opening bell. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) posted in-line earnings of $0.19 per share, and issued in-line guidance for the first quarter, during which the company expects earnings to range from $0.04 to $0.07 per share. Shares of AEO are down 6.0% to $9.00 per share in premarket trading. The Buckle (BKE) generated in-line earnings of $0.74 per share. Its stock is up a modest 0.5% to $24.00 per share ahead of the opening bell. Staples (SPLS) posted fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.36 per share, which is $0.06 short of the consensus estimate of $0.42 per share. Staples did not offer guidance, due to limited visibility. Shares of SPLS are down 4.7% to $15.00 per share in premarket trading. National Semiconductors (NSM) earned $0.09 per share, including certain tax benefits, during its fiscal third quarter. The results were sequentially lower as sales tumbled. Sales are expected to be down in the company's fourth fiscal quarter, too. The company will implement job eliminations as part of an effort to reduce expenses. NSM is trading 3.1% higher at $12.06 per share ahead of the session's opening bell.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. France's CAC and Germany's DAX are both trading with solid gains after U.S. indices were relieved Tuesday from their rut of weakness by staging their best single-session rally in months. Britain's FTSE, however, is failing to share in the improved bias. Tuesday's announcement that financial giant Citigroup (C) had turned in profits during the first two months of 2009 prompted participants to put in a bid for financial stocks and the broader market since it appeared things may be improving for one of the financial sector's most troubled players. Many European financial stocks have caught a bid of their own this session. BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), and Societe Generale are leading France's 1.1% higher. Deutsche Bank (DB) is helping drive Germany's DAX up 1.2%. Britain's FTSE is lagging the other major indices, however. It is trading with a 0.4% loss. Favortism for financials has passed over HSBC (HBC), which is trading as a primary laggard in the FTSE. In Asia, financials also rallied, helping the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index close 2.7% higher. Japan's Nikkei closed 4.6% higher. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) and Mizuho Financial (MFG) were primary leaders. Toshiba shot up after a newspaper reported it may achieve an operating profit. Economic data continues to paint a poor picture, but the latest release was better-than-expected. Japan's core private-sector machinery orders fell 3.2% in January, slightly better than a median forecast. In Hong Kong, the Sensex closed 2.0% higher, also helped by financial shares. However, the index slipped from its best levels as HSBC shares gave up much of their advance. HSBC shares still closed higher. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.9% lower, giving up an early 1.9% advance amid weak export data and a lack of news regarding an expansion in the country's fiscal stimulus.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80. Overseas markets show gains after the U.S. indices put together Tuesday their best single-session performance in months. The positive mood is looping back into this morning's premarket trading as futures take a commanding lead over fair value. There isn't much in the way of market moving earnings announcements or economic data due out today, so a key challenge will be whether market participants can continue pushing stocks higher in the absence of any major, positive catalysts.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00.

06:22 am : Nikkei...7376.12...+321.10...+4.60%. Hang Seng...11930.66...+236.60...+2.00%.

06:22 am : FTSE...3744.64...+29.40...+0.80%. DAX...3935.60...+48.70...+1.20%.


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